Conservatives lead by 15; Liberals and NDP tied outside of Quebec.
From November 15 to 22 2023, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 3,450 adults that asked Canadians how they would vote if an election was held at the time of the survey as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.
In this report, we share results of that survey and take advantage of the large sample size to explore demographic, regional, and socio-economic factors correlated with vote in more detail than usual.
Federal Vote Intention
If an election were held today, 39% of committed voters would vote Conservatives with the Liberals at 24%, the NDP at 20% and the Greens at 5%. The BQ is at 35% in Quebec.
Since our last survey, we see almost no change with the Conservatives down 2, the NDP up 1, and the Liberals down 1.
Regionally, the Conservatives are well ahead in western Canada, including in BC. The Conservatives lead by 8 in Atlantic Canada and 14 in Ontario. In Quebec, we find the BQ ahead of the Liberals by 7 with the Conservatives another 8-points behind the Liberals.
Outside Quebec, the Conservatives hold a 21-point lead over both the Liberals and the NDP. The Liberals and NDP are tied at 23% outside of Quebec.
In Ontario, the Conservatives are numerically ahead in every region. They lead the Liberals by 3 in Metro Toronto, by 13 in the Greater Toronto/Hamilton Area (postal codes start with L), by 13 in Eastern Ontario, and by 32 in Southwestern Ontario. Note, due to a smaller sample size in Northern Ontario, we didn’t report the results.
Demographically, the Conservatives lead across all age groups. They lead by 5 among 18 to 29 year olds, 17 among 30 to 44 year olds, 19 among 45 to 59 year olds and 15 among those aged 60 and over.
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The Conservatives lead by 18 among men and 11 among women.
The Conservatives also lead among those with all levels of education. They are ahead by 15 among those with high school or less, 21 among those with a college degree or apprenticeships, and 9 among those with a university education.
The Conservative lead by almost 20 points among homeowners but also lead among those who rent or live with family.
Among employed Canadians, the Conservatives lead the Liberals by 10 among those members of a private sector union, 6 among public sector union members, and 18 among employed Canadians not members of a union.
Today vs. November 2022
Comparing vote intention today across regional, demographic, and socio-economic variables shows the Conservatives have made significant gains across the country and across groups.
Some of the biggest gains for the Conservatives are among or in:
- Atlantic Canada: +11
- Private sector unions: +7
- 30 to 44 year olds: +5
- Ontario: +5
For the Liberals, the biggest drop in support happened among or in:
- Atlantic Canada: -13
- 30 to 44 year olds: -9
- College educated: -9
- University education: -8
- Ontario: -8
- Women: -7
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data Chair & CEO David Coletto: “It appears that the political opinions have stablized for now with the Conservatives holding a double digit lead since July. This lead is broad-based and crosses several demographic, regional, and socio-economic subgroups.
The Liberal vote has dropped another point to 24%, the lowest in our tracking since 2015 while the NDP vote is up to 20%. Outside of Quebec, the Liberals and NDP are tied at 23%. The gap between the Liberald and NDP – a symbolically important gap – has closed from 10 points in July to 4 points today.
If these intentions materialized on election day, they would produce a majority Conservative government based on the new Abacus Data seat projections I released two weeks ago.”
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Methodology
The survey was conducted with 3,450 Canadian adults from November 15 to 22, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.7%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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