Canadians have had more than two weeks to let Donald Trump’s reelection sink in here, and a new poll from Abacus Data shows that most of us think having him back in the White House is overall bad news for this country.
Location:
Abacus Data operates offices in Ottawa, Toronto & Halifax. Though this position will be primarily remote following training, an Analyst needs to be Ontario based, with the ability to commute into one of our physical offices 2-3 times a week for the first month.
Compensation:
Salary: $45,000 to $75,000 of total compensation is typical for an Analyst / Senior Analyst role. However the compensation package may be increased or decreased to be commensurate with experience.
When we grow, you grow. As a member of our team you are eligible for an annual performance bonus based on the overall performance of the company and your part in it.
Expected start date:
Mid December-January 2025, or at such a time as a suitable candidate is found.
The opportunity:
Abacus Data is expanding and we’re looking for someone who is excited to learn and grow in a fast-paced, dynamic work environment. If you’re early in your career, curious to learn new things, thoughtful, detail-oriented, and most importantly, friendly, this could be a great fit for you.
As an ideal candidate, you have some background in social research, having taken a class or two in university or college, and maybe even worked in the industry for a few years. But more importantly, you want to learn and grow in a job that will expose you to all aspects of our work. We want a team member who loves to solve problems, find creative ways of doing things, and likes checking off to-do lists.
Primary Responsibilities:
Requirements:
Though we welcome industry experienced candidates to apply, the most important criteria for this role is a strong interest in public opinion research, a willingness to learn, demonstrable data literacy, and basic writing aptitude.
Bilingualism in English and French is not a requirement and will not be an impediment to your application, but please clearly specify if you are.
Apply by November 29th at 5pm ET.
If you think you’re the right candidate for this role, please send a CV to Ihor Korbabicz at careers@abacusdata.ca referencing “Job 2741894 – Analyst/Senior Analyst” in the subject line. If you are coming from outside the public opinion research industry, sending a writing sample with your application is encouraged.
Only those selected for the next round of the process will be contacted.
Location:
Abacus Data operates offices in Ottawa, Toronto & Halifax. A Consultant can be based anywhere in Canada but will need to be able to commute to our Ottawa office for an initial orientation and other occasional travel for corporate events.
Compensation:
Salary: $65,000 to $85,000 of total compensation is typical for a Consultant role. However the compensation package may be increased or decreased to be commensurate with experience.
When we grow, you grow. As a member of our team you are eligible for an annual performance bonus based on the overall performance of the company and your part in it.
Expected start date:
Mid December-January 2025, or at such a time as a suitable candidate is found.
The opportunity:
At Abacus Data, a premier Canadian public opinion research & strategy agency, we are looking to capitalize on explosive growth by adding to our research team.
In these roles, you will work closely with the firm’s executive team to help service the firm’s growing roster of public and private sector clients, with abundant opportunities to take on clients on your own & craft a research specialization as the company grows.
In the immediate term, this role will see you work on research files with the supervision of a senior lead, acting as the principal author & project manager of Abacus’ custom research survey projects.
The Consultant is responsible for assisting team leads in managing client relationships, overseeing the survey fielding & reporting process, and writing compelling, timely and strategic research reports based on public opinion survey results.
Responsibilities:
Requirements:
The most important criteria for this role is a strong public affairs writing background with a demonstrable ability to understand data, think strategically and synthesize ideas. If you can demonstrate proficiency here but have no survey research experience, we would still be thrilled to hear from you.
Bilingualism in English and French is not a requirement and will not be an impediment to your application, but please clearly specify if you are.
Apply by November 29th at 5pm ET.
If you think you’re the right candidate for this role, please send a CV to Ihor Korbabicz at careers@abacusdata.ca referencing “Job 2743895 – Consultant/Senior Consultant” in the subject line. If you are coming from outside the public opinion research industry, sending a writing sample with your application is encouraged.
Only those selected for the next round of the process will be contacted.
From November 14 to 19, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,915 Canadian adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.
In this edition, we ask our usual trackers only but all of the interviews we done following the U.S. Presidential election and Donald Trump’s victory. It’s our first survey after the U.S. election.
Vote Intention: No Trump Bump. Conservatives ahead by 22. Liberals and NDP tied.
For the first time in our tracking since the Liberals were elected in 2015, we have the Liberals and NDP numerically tied for second place.
If an election were held today, 43% of committed voters would vote Conservative, while 21% would vote for the Liberals and the NDP, and 4% for the Greens. The BQ has 36% of the vote in Quebec. The Conservative vote share is up 2, the NDP is up 1 while the Liberals are down 1 since earlier this month.
Regionally, the Conservatives continue to lead across all regions and provinces except for in Quebec. The Conservatives lead by 9 in BC, 38 in Alberta, 31 in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, 23-points in Ontario, and by 11 in Atlantic Canada. In Quebec, the BQ is ahead of the Conservatives by 13 with the Liberals two points further back.
Outside of Quebec, the NDP is slightly ahead of the Liberals (23% to 21%) with 48% voting Conservative.
Demographically, the Conservatives continue to lead among all age groups and among both men and women although their margin among younger continues to be smaller than older cohorts.
Of note, among millennials, only 15% say they will vote Liberal – the lowest we have measured Liberal support among that generation.
45% of men would vote Conservative compared with 40% of women.
The Conservative lead is larger again among those who say they are most certain to vote – 45% to 21%. The BQ’s vote share increases even more in Quebec since its support is more concentrated among older Quebecers.
The mood of the country has deteriorated slightly with only 24% thinking the country’s headed in the right direction. We have seen an increase in Canadians who think the United States is headed in the right direction, up 7 to 22% while those who think the world is off on the wrong track is up 6 to 72%.
The federal government’s approval rating has not changed much.
Today, 25% of Canadians approve of the job performance of the federal government (unchanged) while disapproval is down one to 61%.
Today, 23% (unchanged) have a positive view of the Prime Minister, while 61% (unchanged) have a negative impression of the Prime Minister, for a net score of -38.
And we also find that NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh’s negatives remain higher than they have historically been but his positives are trending upward from 29% in September to 32% today. His net favourability score is -7.
Views of Pierre Poilievre remain mixed. 40% have a positive view (up 2) while 37% have a negative view (down 1) for a net score of +3. Trump’s election has had no impact on views towards Pierre Poilievre.
Those expecting the Conservatives to win the next election grows.
More than half of Canadians now believe the Conservatives are going to win the next federal election. Since January, expectations of a Conservative win have increased by 11-points. In contrast, 16% think the Liberals will win while 8% expect an NDP victory. 22% remain unsure.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “We don’t see any “Trump Bump” for the Liberals following Donald Trump election victory. Almost all of the key metrics are unchanged from our survey before the election.
But for the first time in our tracking since the 2015 election, we have the NDP and Liberals tied nationally at 21% for second place. And today, more Canadians think the Conservatives are going to win the next election.
Impressions of neither Justin Trudeau nor Pierre Poilievre have changed. We will have a deep dive on what Canadians think about who is best to deal with Trump and what approach they think the federal government should take later this week or Monday.”
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,915 Canadian adults from November 14 to 19, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
Debbie Gamble, Chief Strategy and Marketing Officer at Interac Corp. in conversation with David Coletto, Founder, Chair and CEO of Abacus Data.
Canadians are rapidly adopting digital financial services, creating new opportunities as well as challenges.
As the country increasingly swaps cash for entirely digital alternatives, the barriers between individuals and businesses and their money are falling, enabling convenience through technology, but that could add new security and fraud challenges to the equation.
Source: https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/adv/article-how-canada-can-prepare-for-a-digital-everything-future/&ct=ga&cd=CAIyGjc1Y2Q2YWMwOGE3YWEyZTk6Y29tOmVuOlVT&usg=AOvVaw1XY_2jgaADxICTpWcjiFYX
Imagine you’re tasked with advocating for a new public policy that could significantly improve housing access. You know the stakes are high, and getting this right could make a meaningful difference, but how do you find the words that resonate with policymakers, elected officials, or influential government stakeholders? Crafting the perfect message is both an art and a science, and in the realm of public affairs, words can mean the difference between success and being overlooked.
This is where online research communities designed and executed by the best public affairs research team in Canada step into the spotlight. These digital gathering spaces provide an innovative way to test and refine advocacy language, offering a platform for engaging with diverse audiences to ensure your message hits the mark. In this edition of The Abacus Way, we’ll guide you through the process of leveraging online research communities, showing you how they can help you gain confidence, outmaneuver competitors, and craft messages that truly break through.
Understanding Online Research Communities – What Are Online Research Communities?
Online research communities are virtual platforms where groups of people come together to share ideas, opinions, and feedback. They’re like digital focus groups, but with more flexibility and depth. These communities allow participants to engage in discussions, answer surveys, and provide insights on various topics, all within an online environment. This makes them an ideal tool for public affairs professionals seeking to refine their advocacy language.
How Do They Function?
Participants in online research communities are usually selected to represent a broad spectrum of perspectives, ensuring a diversity of opinions. They are moderated by Abacus Data team members who who guide discussions and ensure productive dialogue. The digital nature of these communities means they can be accessed from anywhere, making it easier to gather data from a wide geographical area.
Why Are They Valuable?
Unlike traditional research methods, online communities offer real-time feedback and a dynamic interaction environment. They provide a space where public affairs professionals can test different messaging approaches, gather immediate reactions, and adjust strategies accordingly. This iterative process aids in identifying language that resonates most effectively with target audiences.
Crafting Messages That Resonate – Leveraging Insights for Message Development
With online research communities, you can explore various ways of framing your issue to find the most effective approach. By presenting different scenarios or statements to participants, you can analyze which words, phrases, or arguments generate the strongest response. This data-driven approach ensures your message is not just heard, but remembered.
Beating the Competition
In the competitive world of public affairs, having the right message can be your greatest asset. Online communities allow you to test your messaging against that of your competitors or those on the other side of an issue, identifying the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches. This gives you a strategic advantage, enabling you to refine your language until it stands out in a crowded landscape.
Building Confidence with Deep, Qualitative Insights
There’s no substitute for confidence backed by deep insights. Identify unmet needs and knowing that your advocacy language has been honed through rigorous research provides the assurance needed to present your case convincingly. Online communities offer the quantitative and qualitative insights necessary to support your strategies with concrete evidence.
Words That Work, Frames That Function – The Power of Precision
In advocacy, every word counts. Online research communities help you zero in on the language that precisely conveys your message while aligning with the values and priorities of your audience. This precision is crucial when communicating complex ideas in a way that is both accessible and compelling.
Framing for Impact
A well-crafted frame can change how your audience perceives an issue. By experimenting with different frames within an online community, you can discover which narratives resonate most effectively. This empowers you to shape the conversation and guide stakeholders toward your perspective.
Framing for Impact
The ultimate goal of any advocacy effort is to break through the noise and make a lasting impact. Online communities enable you to refine your arguments until they are clear, persuasive, and aligned with the needs and values of your audience. This leads to advocacy language that not only captures attention but also inspires action.
Partnering for Success – Expertise You Can Trust
Partnering with Abacus Data research professionals and strategists using online research communities provides you with the guidance and support needed to maximize the potential of this powerful tool. Our team of professionals brings a wealth of experience in public affairs and market research, ensuring you receive insights tailored to your needs.
Tailored Solutions for Your Needs
Every advocacy campaign is unique, and our solutions are designed to meet the specific challenges you face. Whether you’re navigating a complex policy landscape or seeking to engage a diverse audience, we offer the strategies and tools necessary to achieve your goals.
A Proven Track Record
We’ve helped numerous clients refine their advocacy language and achieve remarkable results. From non-profits, charities, unions, associations, and corporations, our clients have successfully used online research communities to craft messages that resonate and drive change. We invite you to join them and discover the difference this approach can make.
Tailored Solutions for Your Needs
If you’re ready to elevate your advocacy efforts and craft language that truly resonates, we encourage you to reach out for a 20-minute consultation. Let’s explore how our online research communities can empower you to achieve your goals and make a lasting impact.
Contact us today and let’s begin a conversation about the future of your advocacy initiatives.
For the last year we have been tracking Canadian public opinion on public education in Canada on behalf of The Canadian Teachers’ Federation (CTF/FCE). The results below are from an online survey conducted September 26th to October 6th with 2,000 adults in Canada.
Below are some of the key findings and metrics we’ve been tracking over the last two years.
To begin, Canadians across the political spectrum believe public education is an important public expenditure.
90% of Canadians consider public education to be one of the most important public institutions in Canada. This number has not budged for three years, throughout a time when government budgets have been tested.
Beyond the general concept of spending on education in Canada, Canadians even go so far as to say that education, which is a provincial budget item, is one of the most important public expenditures in their province/territory.
This sentiment is felt more strongly among those who are parents themselves (46% of parents with school-aged children strongly agree with this statement), but even for those who are not parents and not accessing public schools- this line item is important. 9 in 10 Canadians who are not parents feel public education is one of the most important public expenditures.
There is also support across the political spectrum, 90%+ of CPC, LPC and NDP voters say public education is one of the most important public expenditures.
But there are concerns about the quality of public education. Canadians rate the quality of their public education as moderate, and even lower in certain areas.
Altogether, 40% rate the quality of the publicly funded education system in their province/territory as excellent or good (just 7% say excellent, however). 39% say the quality is okay. And 21% rate the quality as poor (only 5% saying very poor).
Across the country, ratings vary but are moderate across the board.
Scores range between 29-54%, highest in Newfoundland and Labrador and lowest in Quebec.
A particular and growing challenge is the shortage of teachers.
Three quarters of Canadians feel there is a shortage of teachers in their community. This number has only grown since we began tracking it in 2022, when it was at 67%. This is a 7-point jump in individuals who say there is a shortage of teachers in their community.
Quebec continues to have elevated concerns about a teacher shortage with 88% of Quebec residents saying there is a shortage of teachers in their community. This is followed by those in the North and New Brunswick of which 88% and 78%, respectively say there is a shortage of teachers in their community.
Parents have a higher degree of concern about the issue (79% of parents of children under 18) say there is a shortage of teachers in their community. Still, even for those without children in the school system (either current or ever) the majority feel there is a shortage of teachers.
Such a strong link is likely due to the role Canadians feel teachers play in creating a strong public education system. 80% of Canadians feel teachers play a considerable role in creating a strong, public education system. Considerably higher than any other stakeholders.
Still, Canadians believe a strong public education system is created with collaboration, with teachers leading influence. Two-thirds+ believe CTF/FCE, teachers unions, the Ministry of Education in their province/territory, and school boards all play a role in creating a strong public education system.
A strong quality education system is directly linked to teachers playing a large role in creating that system.
Canadians who say their education system is of good quality are twice as likely to say teachers played a big role in creating that system. For Canadians who say their education system is of poor quality, only 18% believe teachers were able to play a big role.
Addressing the quality of education in Canada is paramount. Not only is it a worthy public expenditure, Canadians feel our public education system is vital to our quality of life and identity.
92% of Canadians say high quality publicly-funded education is important for our quality of life.
90% say public education is a fundamental pillar of equality.
89% say high quality publicly funded education is part of our Canadian identity.
This sentiment is true whether someone is a parent or not, and across the political spectrum.
THE UPSHOT
There is no doubt Canadians place a great deal of importance on our publicly funded education systems. In the words of Canadians, it is one of our most important public expenditures, important for quality of life and central to our identities as Canadians. Still, we feel the system could be better. Given the importance of teachers in the education system and the shortages our communities face- supporting educators in finding solutions to this system challenge is a great place to start.
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 2,000 Canadian adults from September 26 to October 6, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by the Canadian Teachers’ Federation.
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
But first, a message from Abacus Data founder and CEO, David Coletto:
We love elections at Abacus Data. Exploring what people think and feel and how that impacts their behaviours at work, as consumers, and as citizens is at the core of what we do.
And so, with less than two weeks to go until Election Day in Nova Scotia, we are excited to share the results from our second provincial election survey with you and start exploring how voter preferences and opinions are changing over time.
In case you missed our big announcement last week: Abacus Data is proud to be investing in Atlantic Canada. We have opened an office in Halifax and Kelly Bennett has joined our team as Vice President & Atlantic Canada Lead.
Together, we will serve clients in Atlantic Canada with the same curious, thoughtful, and hospitality-inspired approach that has made Abacus the most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm in Canada.
To learn more about our investment and expansion in Atlantic Canada, click here.
Now to the survey results.
The results indicate that the Nova Scotia PC Party and Premier Tim Houston have increased their lead over the opposition parties with the campaign having yet to fundamentally shift preferences or opinions about the political choices in Nova Scotia.
Here are the key takeaways from our second survey of the campaign:
The Issues
Fixing healthcare, affordability and housing remain the top three issues likely to impact the way Nova Scotians vote on election day, but the salience of those issues has dropped a bit since our first survey, with other issues like cutting taxes staying the same and population growth appearing to gathering steam.
Since our first NS election survey, healthcare as a top issue is down 5 points, affordability is down 3 points, and housing is down 3 points.
Cutting taxes finishes fourth again, with no change since the first survey.
And population growth is up 3 points, growing the economy is up 2 points, and fighting climate change is up 6 points.
When voters who identify healthcare, affordability, housing and/or reducing taxes as their top issues are asked which party they think will be best able to handle those issues, the PCs finish first on three of the four top issues. They lead the Liberals and NDP by 15-points on “fixing healthcare”, lead the NDP by 10-points on “making life more affordable”, and lead the Liberals by 12-points on “reducing taxes”.
Only on “improving housing and reducing homelessness” do the PCs slightly trail the NDP (28% to 25%).
The PCs also lead among people who identify “growing the economy and creating good jobs,” “managing population growth”, and “improving roads” as their top issues.
And the PCs are in fourth place on the party Nova Scotians who rate climate change and the environment as a top issue (the Greens lead on that issue).
The Leaders
Our second election survey also confirms that Tim Houston is well-known to voters. 73% of eligible voters currently feel they have a very good or pretty good idea who the incumbent Premier is and what he stands for, remaining high overall and high in most segments.
Familiarity with Liberal Leader Zach Churchill and NDP Leader Claudia Chender has improved a little bit since the first week of the election, but remains much lower than it is for Tim Houston.
While the same proportion (48%) of voters have at least a pretty good idea of who Zach Churchill is (unchanged from the start of the campaign), there has been a 5-point decrease in those who say they don’t know much about him at all (26% to 21%).
For NDP Leader Claudia Chender, we see a similar change. Familiarity with Claudia Chender as a person and a leader is the same as it was at the start of the campaign (36% vs. 37%), but the proportion of those who don’t know her at all is down 5-points (28% to 23%).
When we ask Nova Scotians about their impressions of the party leaders, Tim Houston continues to be viewed positively by 37% of eligible voters (only down 1 point since our first survey) and negatively by 29% (down 5) for a net score of +8, representing an improvement since the start of the campaign.
In comparison, Liberal Leader Zach Churchill is +6 (down since the start) and NDP Leader Claudia Chender is +26 (an improvement).
This set of results also confirms that neither Justin Trudeau nor Pierre Poilievre are well-liked in Nova Scotia. The Prime Minister’s net favourable is -32 while Pierre Poilievre’s is -14 in the province.
HAVE OTHER INDICATORS SHIFTED SINCE THE START OF THE CAMPAIGN?
The desire for change has also lessened a bit.
In our first Nova Scotia election poll, 50% of eligible voters told us they definitely wanted to see a change in government in Nova Scotia. Today, that figure is 46% (down 4 points). And those who definitely want to see the Houston PC government re-elected is holding steady at 20%.
This is more good news for the PCs, with these trends as well as the slightly higher voter intentions, favouring them to win the election.
The desire for change in Nova Scotia right now is also about the same as it was in British Columbia where the incumbent NDP recently eked out a victory.
Even among those who definitely want to see a change in government, 16% of eligible voters in Nova Scotia still say they plan to vote PC, an increase of 7-points since the start of the campaign.
And the NDP and Liberals currently split the-solid-change-vote 30% to 27% for the NDP.
The Undecided
What is much less clear is which direction eligible voters who have not made their minds-up yet will go.
With less than two weeks remaining in the provincial election, 22% of all eligible voters in Nova Scotia remain undecided and a significant proportion of voters who are definitely wanting a change in government remain undecided, representing about 10% of the total electorate.
If these groups consolidate around one opposition party, the PC margin could shrink substantially, lifting that party to second place or maybe even better.
It is also important to note that in the last provincial election, 35% of current strong-change-voters voted Liberal, 14% voted PC, 6% NDP and 35% didn’t vote.
Every election is, however, different and the Liberals and NDP also had other leaders in 2021, with Zach Churchill and Claudia Chender leading their first provincial campaigns.
Tim Houston leads by 15 on “Best Premier”
When we ask Nova Scotians which of the party leaders they think would make the best Premier, Tim Houston continues to finish far ahead of the other party leaders. 35% pick the current Premier, 20% chose Liberal Leader Zach Churchill, while 18% select NDP Leader Claudia Chender. And 25% are unsure.
And Now, Vote Choice: PCs lead by 22
All of these metrics lead to a larger PC lead than we measured earlier in the campaign.
If the election was held today, the PCs would likely win a large majority than they won in 2021. 47% of committed Nova Scotians would vote PC (up 2 since our last survey), 25% would vote Liberal (unchanged), while 23% would vote NDP (down 3). 4% would vote Green. 22% say they are undecided down 3 from our first survey.
Regionally, the PCs and NDP remain statistically tied in Halifax (HRM) while the PCs lead by 33 in other parts of the province. The PCs also lead in urban and rural communities, although their lead in rural Nova Scotia is substantially larger (30 points vs. 18 points).
Demographically, the PCs lead by a wide margin among those aged 45 and over, lead by a smaller margin among those aged 30 to 44, and are statistically tied with the NDP among those aged 18 to 29.
The PCs also lead among men and women with almost an equal share of the vote across both genders.
The Enthusiasm Gap has Closed
Earlier in the campaign, we noted that the PCs had an advantage over the other parties because their voters seem more enthusiastic to vote. That “enthusiasm” gap seems to have shrunk.
Among the 51% of the electorate who tell us that they are “extremely motivated” to vote, the PCs have a smaller lead than across the entire electorate – 45% to 29% for the Liberals and 21% for the NDP.
Today, 60% of Liberal supporters say they are extremely motivated to vote (up 11) compared with 49% of PC supporters (down 16) and 47% of NDP supporters. (down 5)
These motivated Liberal supporters tend to be more female (63%), 78% have a post-secondary education, and 76% of them voted for Justin Trudeau’s Liberals in 2021. Could this be a Trump-effect in Nova Scotia? We don’t have enough evidence to validate this theory, but it’s something we will continue to watch.
Although enthusiasm among PC supporters may be down, they continue to be firmer in their support than other party supporters. 60% of PC supporters say they will not change their mind. They already know they are voting PC. 53% of Liberal voters and 36% of NDP voters responded the same way.
Second Choice Preferences
When we ask people with a vote preference which party is their second choice, we find that 1 in 3 PC supporters say they don’t have a second choice. Another 31% say the NDP is their second choice, and 23% point to the Liberals.
Among Liberal supporters, 56% say their second choice is the NDP while 30% say the PCs.
For NDP supporters, 45% say the Liberals, 32% say the Greens, while 17% say the PCs.
These results make consolidation of the not-PC vote unlikely given the fragmentation of the second-choice preferences among NDP and Liberal supporters.
Who do Nova Scotians think will win the election?
Half of Nova Scotians believe that the PCs will win the provincial election, a three point increase from our last survey. 16% think the Liberals will win and only 6% expect an NDP victory.
UPSHOT
According to Kelly Bennett: “Tim Houston and his PC party started the provincial election riding high in the polls and that advantage continues to grow. The PCs have increased their committed voter numbers by 2 points in the last week, inching closer to the 50% mark, while the other parties continue to battle it out for second place.
If the provincial election was held today, Tim Houston and the PCs would likely win a larger majority than they did in 2021.
In the final two weeks of the campaign, it will be interesting to see which direction undecided voters decide to move in. If they turnout, their choice could close the gap with the PCs and put one of the main opposition parties ahead of the other.
With the party leaders hitting the debate stage on November 14th (for a live, 90-minute debate hosted by CBC), Zach Churchill and Claudia Cheder will have one of the best chances they are going to get to introduce themselves to Nova Scotians later this week.
For them, the stakes seem really high. They need to perform well on the debate stage to win-over as many undecided voters as they can, whereas the incumbent Premier only needs to stay the course, stick to his messages, and not say or do anything that will turn his many supporters off.”
According to David Coletto: “As we pass the halfway mark of the campaign, the Nova Scotia PCs and Tim Houston remain in the driver’s seat. The desire for change is not threatening, the Premier is relatively well liked, and neither of the opposition parties have been able to consolidate the change vote, at least up until this point.
However, some of the other things we are seeing should concern the PC campaign. Enthusiasm among PC supporters has dropped a little bit, perhaps as complacency begins to set in. Most voters think the PCs are going to win the election.
10% of the electorate definitely wants a change in government, but is still undecided about how they will vote. If all or most of this group were to rally around one of the opposition parties, that would put a serious dent in the PC lead and at least determine second place.
If the PCs do win and expand their vote share from the last election, they would be one of the very few incumbent governments in the democratic world to survive what I call “inflationitis” and increase their vote share.
Everything considered, we should still expect a large Progressive Conservative majority government to be elected on November 26th. What is more unknown is which party will form the official opposition.”
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 600 eligible voters in Nova Scotia from November 7 to 10, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 4.1% 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Nova Scotia’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
OTTAWA — The cost of food tops the list of Canadians’ anxieties about their finances, according to a new The Logic poll conducted by Abacus Data. Source: https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=https://thelogic.co/news/exclusive/canada-food-prices-abacus-poll/&ct=ga&cd=CAIyGjc1Y2Q2YWMwOGE3YWEyZTk6Y29tOmVuOlVT&usg=AOvVaw3dt52wW6lDHLD2hoj0V_ZL
From October 31 to November 5, 2024 Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,915 Canadian adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.
In this edition, we ask our usual trackers only.
Vote Intention: Conservatives remain well ahead, lead by 19 over the Liberals
If an election were held today, 41% of committed voters would vote Conservative, while 22% would vote for the Liberals, 20% for the NDP, and 5% for the Greens. The BQ has 38% of the vote in Quebec. The Conservative vote share is down 3 while the NDP and PPC vote shares are up 2 each respectively.
Regionally, the Conservatives continue to lead across all regions and provinces except for in Quebec. The Conservatives lead by 12 in BC, 36 in Alberta, 32 in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, and by 18 in Atlantic Canada. In Quebec, the BQ is ahead of the Liberals by 12 with the Conservatives a further two points back.
Outside of Quebec, the Liberals and NDP are statistically tied well back of the Conservatives who have almost half of the vote share.
Demographically, the Conservatives continue to lead among all age groups and among both men and women although their margin among younger Canadians has dropped.
The Conservatives lead by a wide margin among Canadians aged 45 and older, and have a sizeable lead among the younger cohorts. The NDP vote share is up in our sample among those aged 30 to 44.
48% of men would vote Conservative compared with 40% of women – both down 3 since last wave.
The Conservative lead is larger again among those who say they are most certain to vote – 44% to 21%. The BQ’s vote share increases even more in Quebec since its support is more concentrated among older Quebecers.
The mood of the country has improved slightly with 27% feeling the country is headed in the right direction while 60% feel it’s off on the wrong track. We will monitor this to see if it’s the start of a new trend of increasing optimism.
The federal government’s approval rating has not changed much.
Today, 25% of Canadians approve of the job performance of the federal government (up 1) while disapproval is up one (62%).
Today, 23% (unchanged) have a positive view of the Prime Minister, while 61% (up 1) have a negative impression of the Prime Minister, for a net score of -38.
And we also find that NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh’s negatives remain higher than they have historically been. Today 30% have a positive impression of Mr. Singh while 39% have a negative view for a net score of -9.
Views of Pierre Poilievre remain mixed. 38% have a positive view (down 3) while 38% have a negative view (up 1) for a net score of 0.
Those expecting the Conservatives to win the next election holds.
Halfof Canadians now believe the Conservatives are going to win the next federal election. Since january, expectations of a Conservative win have increased by 7-points. In contrast, 18% think the Liberals will win while 10% expect an NDP victory. 22% remain unsure.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “The opinion environment prior to Donald Trump’s election on Tuesday was very similar to what it has been for over a year now. We see no shift in perceptions as Canadians continue to seek political change and the Conservatives continue to benefit the most from this holding onto a clear lead nationally, across most demographics, and across almost all regions of the country.”
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,915 Canadian adults from October 31 to November 5, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.