Everything is political, eh? I think so, and that’s why I’m excited to share news of a new partnership between Abacus Data and GZERO Media. GZERO Media is a company dedicated to providing the public with intelligent and engaging coverage of global affairs. It was created in 2017 as a subsidiary of Eurasia Group, the world’s leading political risk analysis firm.
Over the next 100 days and beyond, we will be partnering with GZERO Media and it’s flagship GZERO North newsletter to ask Canadians and Americans interesting, different, and at times uncoventional questions about the Canada-US relationship, American politics, the US election, and global affairs.
Today, we released some new polling from a national survey of 2,000 Canadian adults from July 16 to 21, 2024.
In that survey, we asked three specific questions:
1: What is the likelihood that the United States goes into a civil war?
2: Do you think there should be a maximum age for someone who is Prime Minister or President?
3: (if yes) What do you think that age limit should be?
Here’s what we found:
Is American heading towards a civil war?
A sizeable portion of Canadians think its at least somewhat likely that the United States will go into a civil war. 4 in 10 Canadians think it’s at least somewhat likely with 12% thinking its very likely. Another 4 in 10 think it’s unlikely to happen while 19% are unsure.
Younger Canadians, women, and those who support the NDP are more likely to think it’s possible the United States will be go into a civil war at some point. Given the deep divisions, polarization, and political violence in the United States, Canadians are watching and many believe the worst could happen.
Is there a best before date for political leaders?
Most Canadians think there is. 7 in 10 Canadians believe there should be a maximum age for someone who is Prime Minister or President. Of those, the average maximum age is around 65 years with almost half believing the age is somewhere between 61 and 70 years of age.
Although there is little political difference of opinion on the age limit for political leadership, there is a sharp generational one. Younger Canadians are more likely to think the maximum age for political leaders should be lower than older Canadians.
THE UPSHOT
Most Canadians think political leaders have a best before date, and the average age of a president or prime minister is around the usual age of retirement – 65.
The whole Joe Biden saga put into clear perspective the effect aging can have on- especially in chief executives – charged with the most important executive functions in a country or the world. It sparked a debate about the capacity of leaders and most think there should be a maximum age in the same way we have a minimum age to be elected or be chief executive.
Beyond the age of political leaders, Canadians are also watching the increasing polarization and political violence in the US and many of them are not shutting the door to that division escalating into full scale civil war.
Younger Canadians in particular are inclined to think that the very worst outcome is at least a possibility.
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 2,000 Canadian adults from July 16 to 22, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.191%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
From June 20 to 25, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,926 Canadian adults (18+) to examine the effects of the current cost of living and housing crisis on young Canadians. Additionally, we present data from our latest political outlook survey, collected between July 16 and 22, 2024, to shed light on recent voting intentions and perceptions of the top issues facing Canadians today.
The results reveal the main factors driving young Canadians away from the Liberal Party and boosting their support for Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party. Results reveal how current economic challenges are shifting young Canadians’ priorities and political views, emphasizing the urgent need for effective measures and actions to address their concerns and provide meaningful relief.
Vote Share by Age
Over the past year, there has been a notable shift in Canada’s political landscape, particularly evident among younger demographics. Once a cornerstone of support that propelled Justin Trudeau’s Liberal party to success, younger voters have now emerged as a major concern for the Liberals. Our analysis of post-2015 election data, along with trends from 2018 to today, reveals a significant decline in overall support for the Liberal Party, most prominently among Canadians aged 18-35.
The data paints a clear picture: Support among young Canadians, which peaked at 41% in 2015 and 34% in early 2021, has dwindled to just 22% today. This demographic, which played a significant role in securing Liberal majorities in 2015 and preventing defeats in 2019 and 2021, has shown a diminishing attraction for Mr. Trudeau and his party.
It’s important to recognize that this trend isn’t confined solely to younger voters but reflects a broader shift away from the Liberal Party across all age groups, with the most pronounced decline observed among the youth.
Conversely, examining support among 18-35 year olds, the Conservative Party of Canada, led by Pierre Poilievre, has capitalized on this shift. The Conservatives have seen the largest increase in support from young Canadians, with 37% of those aged 18-35 indicating they would vote for the Conservative Party if an election were held today. This is in stark contrast to the 22% who would vote for the Liberal Party.
Top Issues Facing Young Canadians
The rise in support for the Conservative Party aligns with growing concerns among younger Canadians about housing costs, the economy, and the overall cost of living. Young Canadians are disproportionately affected by the housing crisis and are more likely to prioritize economic issues over healthcare, immigration, and climate change. Inequality and poverty also rank high on their list of priorities.
When considering who young Canadians believe is best suited to address the top issues facing the country today, the Conservative Party leads in handling the cost of living, housing, and the economy—the three most important issues to this demographic. In contrast, the Liberal Party is at a significant disadvantage on these key issues.
Impact of the Cost of Living and Housing Crisis on Canadians
Looking deeper, our research highlights the significant impact of the cost of living and housing crisis on young Canadians compared to older Canadians. Many of those who are 18-35 years old have been forced to delay major life events, such as buying a home (34%), renting a home (32%), having children 25%), pursuing post-secondary education (26%), and even getting married (18%).
Young Canadians also appear to be disproportionately impacted financially—they are more likely to skip meals or reduce food quality to save money (37%) and express challenges paying bills on time (36%). Further, they are more likely to resort to selling personal items to help cover their day-to-day expenses (29%).
Additionally, many young Canadians have been forced to adjust their living arrangements due to the cost of living and housing crisis. Specifically, 21% have delayed purchasing a home, while 23% have opted to rent instead of buy. Furthermore, 19% indicate that they have moved in with family or friends.
Taken together, the housing crisis has caused severe stress in 1 in 3 Canadians (36%), with 9 in 10 (91%) experiencing some degree of stress caused by the situation. This impact is even more pronounced among young Canadians, with 45% of those aged 18-35 reporting significant to extreme stress due to the housing crisis.
These challenges highlight the pervasive and multifaceted impact of economic pressures on young Canadians, fundamentally altering their life trajectories and financial stability.
THE UPSHOT
The current housing and cost of living crisis has hit young Canadians hard, reshaping their financial realities and political views. Once solid supporters of Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party (and a cohort that helped push the Liberals to wins in 2019 and 2021), younger Canadians have shifted their vote intentions away from the Liberals more than older cohorts from about 41% in 2015 to just 22% today. Economic pressures have forced many to delay major life events and struggle with everyday expenses, pushing them to prioritize immediate relief over other issues, including climate change.
The political implication of this shift can’t be underscored enough. The Liberals cannot win without the support of younger Canadians and they are feeling the effect of the inflation and cost of living challenges more than any other age cohort.
In response, the Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, has gained significant ground among young Canadians who have sought an alternative. That shift may not be grounded in a complete understanding of what the Conservatives will do or whether their policy choices will lead to different outcomes, but young Canadians have likely concluded that change may be the only way to try and change the world that confronts them. And we see evidence of his in their view that the Conservatives are best able to handle the most pressing issues facing them: housing, affordability, and the economy.
The economic struggles faced by young Canadians have changed both their daily lives and their voting preferences. This highlights the urgent need for policies that tackle their specific issues and offer real relief and more, efforts to shift their mindset away from concern and zero-sum thinking to a wider appreciation for the efforts governments – at all levels – are genuinely making to make life easier.
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 1,925 Canadian adults from June 20 and 25, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.19%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
From July 16 to 22, 2024 Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 2,000 Canadian adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys. This survey was conducted before the Bank of Canada announced an interest rate cut Wednesday morning.
In this edition, we ask Canadians our core tracking questions.
It is worth noting, that about a year ago, our July 2023 poll, conducted before the federal cabinet shuffle, showed the Conservatives opening up a much wider lead over the Liberals. At the time, the Bank of Canada had hiked its interest rates. A year later, the Liberals trail by almost 20 points and have trailed by around this margin for most of that period.
Vote Intention: Conservatives continue ahead, lead Liberals by 19
For the sixth survey in a row, the gap between the Conservatives and the Liberals remains consistent.
If an election were held today, 42% of committed voters would vote Conservative, while 23% would vote for the Liberals, 20% for the NDP, and 4% for the Greens. The BQ continues to hold 38% in Quebec.
Every party’s vote share is consistent with our last survey, with very minor changes, as the Conservatives are down 1 and the NDP are up 2, and all within the margin of error.
Regionally, the Conservatives are also well ahead in every region apart from Quebec.
From our last survey, the Conservatives’ lead over the Liberals in BC, Ontario and SK/MB continues to hold steady. In Alberta support for the NDP increased 5 points (a Nenshi bounce?) from our last survey, but Conservatives remain ahead by 30 points.
In Quebec, the BQ is ahead of both the Conservatives and Liberals who are statistically tied in the province.
Learn about the game-changing tool from the Abacus Data team that makes it possible to estimate polling results to the riding level for improve advocacy and government relations.
Demographically, the Conservatives continue to lead among all groups, as vote intention remains relatively stable. Conservative support remains high at 44% among 45-to-39 (1 point down from our last survey) and 45% among 30-to-44 (2 points up).
Still, there is a small change from our last survey. Conservative support among 18-to-29 is down 3 points (34% vs 37%), as support for the Liberals recovers from the last survey (7 points up) and support for the NDP shrinks slightly (5 points down).
As we have consistently found in recent surveys, there is little difference in vote intention between men and women. The gender gap has grown slightly as Conservative support among women is down 2 points.
With no shifts in vote intentions, the size of the party’s accessible voter pools remains similarly stable. The Conservative pool is 12-points larger than the Liberal’s.
Desire for change continues, as impressions of political party leaders hold steady.
Beyond vote intention, the desire for change remains largely consistent and within the margin of error. 84% want change (down 1 point), with 54% believing there’s a good alternative to the Liberals (up 2 points).
Impressions of Justin Trudeau remain negative and show no changes from our last survey. 59% have a negative impression of the Prime Minister, while 24% have a positive view for a net score of -35.
In contrast, impressions of Pierre Poilievre are also steady, although slightly more positive than in our last survey – 39% have a positive impression (1 up from our last survey), while 36% have a negative impression (1 point down) for a net score of +3.
Impressions of NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh are also steady with 33% positive and 36% negative for a net score of -3.
Find out more about the The Three Threads and how the Abacus Data team looks at polling for public affairs and advocacy.
With vote intention stable and impressions negatively consistent for Prime Minister Trudeau, and positive for Mr. Poilievre, a majority of Canadians (52%) believe Conservatives will win the next federal election. Less than 20% believe Liberals can do so. This is a slight increase in expectations of a Conservative victory and the highest we have measured since we started asking the question.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “As summer rolls on, political opinions Canada are holding steady with little if any change in vote intentions, impressions of party leaders, or how people feel about the government’s job performance.
This survey was conducted before the Bank of Canada’s announcement to cut interest rates, and so we don’t know whether this second rate cut will have an effect on public sentiment.
About a year ago, after the final interest hike, our survey showed the Conservatives opening up a much wider lead over the Liberals. A year later, the Liberals remain almost 20 points behind, while regionally and demographically, they struggle to re-gain ground – trailing across all age groups and in all regions of the country.
The biggest insight from this poll is the growing number of Canadians who believe the Conservatives will win the next election. 52% of all adults, 55% of those who voted in 2021, and 55% of Liberal switchers (those who voted Liberal in 2021 but today say they wouldn’t vote Liberal or are undecided), think the Conservatives will win the next election when it comes.
Given that impressions of Justin Trudeau are strongly related to vote intentions, we shouldn’t expect the gap between the Liberals and Conservatives to close unless views of the Prime Minister improve.
I’ll be writing more about this relationship over on my data lab newsletter this weekend.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 2,000 Canadian adults from July 16 to 22, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.191%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
We also explored the idea of “change” asking respondents if they would vote to re-elect or change the federal government, their provincial government, and their mayor.
Here’s what we found:
Which Level of Government is doing a Better Job at…?
Canadians have mixed views on which level of government is doing a better job on the items we tested.
The provincial government is, on average, seen as doing a better job by more people when it comes to ‘ensuring public safety and security” (43% to 27%), “helping to build as many new homes as possible” (40% to 27%), “helping you manage the cost of living” (34% to 29%), and “keeping your taxes as low as possible” (34% to 29%).
In contrast, the federal government is seen as doing a better job at “growing the economy” (37% to 33%) and “addressing climate change” (45% to 22%).
About 1 in 3 Canadians were unsure which level of government was doing a better job on all the items tested.
Looking at the regional results gives us a better sense of how provincial governments are doing vis-a-vis the federal government. There are some noteworthy differences.
Except for addressing climate change, Albertans are more likely to believe their provincial government is doing a better job than the federal government on all of the areas we tested. Albertans are the only subpopulation to believe their provincial government is doing a better job than the federal government at growing the economy (49% to 27%), Every other regional population believes the federal government is doing better than their provincial government.
On climate change, the federal government leads by 26-points in Atlantic Canada, 22-points in Quebec, 30-points in Ontario, 14-points in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, 6-points in Alberta, and 6-points in BC over the provincial government.
On the cost of living, the top issue for most Canadians at the moment, the provincial government leads by 12-points in BC, 28-points in Alberta, 8-points in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, and 2-points in Ontario. In Quebec, the federal government is ahead by 3-points on the issue, and in Atlantic Canada, the two levels of government are basically tied.
Following this question, we asked Canadians: “The next time you have a chance to vote in a provincial municipal, or federal election, would you vote to re-elect or change the government you have?”
This is the first time we’ve asked this question so we don’t have any comparisons from earlier research, but the results are telling: The desire for change at the federal level is far higher than either the provincial or municipal one.
61% of Canadians say they will vote to change the government the next time they vote in a federal election compared with 46% at the provincial level and 36% at the municipal level.
The regional picture is most interesting.
When it comes to the federal government, majorities in every region of the country would vote to change the federal government from a high of 75% in Alberta, to 62% in Ontario, 60% in BC, to a low of 52% in Atlantic Canada and Quebec.
Provincially or regionally, a plurality of Canadians in every region, except in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, would vote to change their provincial government but there is significant variation across the country.
In BC, 37% would vote to re-elect the Eby NDP government while 41% would vote for change. In Alberta, 41% would vote to re-elect Danielle Smith’s UCP while 43% would vote for change. In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, 40% would vote to re-elect their provincial government while 34% would vote for change. The re-elect number in Manitoba is notably higher in Manitoba than Saskatchewan (45% vs. 34%).
In Ontario, 49% are voting for change next time there’s a provincial election while 29% would vote for change. The results are similar in Quebec, 50% voting for change while 28% would vote to re-elect Legault’s CAQ government.
In Atlantic Canada, 44% are voting for change while 33% are voting to re-elect the incumbent. Obviously, there is likely some variation across the region, but smaller sample sizes makes a comparison difficult but qualitatively, the desire for change seems higher in New Brunswick and Newfoundland and Labrador than it does in Nova Scotia or PEI.
In terms of municipal change (specifically a mayor), results are fairly consistent regionally. About a third or more are not sure how they will vote with change being higher in Alberta, BC, and Ontario.
In Toronto (one of the few cities we have large enough sample sizes), 25% would vote to re-elect Olivia Chow while 45% would vote for change. 31% are unsure.
In the GTHA, 32% would vote to re-elect their mayors while 37% would vote for change.
In Eastern Ontario (mostly Ottawa), 36% would vote to re-elect their mayor while 22% would vote for change. 43% are unsure.
In Montreal, 28% would vote to re-elect Valerie Plante while 51% would vote for change.
In the Greater Vancouver region, 23% would vote to re-elect their mayor while 37% would vote for change. 40% in the GVA are unsure how they would vote.
So what does this all mean?
Although the federal government’s approval rating is close to the lowest it’s been since the Trudeau government was elected in 2015, it’s wrong to assume that people believe their provincial government is doing better on several policy areas.
This poll shows that there isn’t a wide gap on many items (especially the cost of living). The provinces have an edge on public safety and housing while the feds have a big advantage on climate change and a noteworthy edge on managing the economy. But the results are more likely indicative of a generally dissatisfaction with all levels of government at the moment.
But there is also no denying just how challenging the environment is for the federal Liberals. The change vs. re-elect question provides ample evidence to suggest that the federal Liberals are in a much weaker position than any provincial government at the moment.
Six in ten Canadians would vote to change the federal government. That’s at least 9-points higher than any provincial government – including those in Quebec and Ontario.
For the provinces facing provincial elections this fall – BC, Saskatchewan, and New Brunswick – the results suggest that the incumbents there have a clear shot at being re-elected.
David Eby’s NDP and Scott Moe’s Sask Party are likely in the better positions when compared with Blaine Higgs’ NB PCs. But none of them should assume they are safe given the mood of the country and the impact that the public’s scarcity mindset can mean for incumbents.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,989 Canadian adults from July 4 to 9, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Basically, we showed respondents several pictures of federal party leaders, senior cabinet ministers, and prospective Liberal leadership candidates and asked whether they could name the person in the picture.
Why do this?
One, it’s a different way of gauging awareness and familiarity with a political leader. If someone doesn’t recognize a picture of someone, it’s likely they don’t have a strong opinion of that person outside of the bias that might come with knowing what their job or title is.
For example, I may not know who the Minister of Housing is (it’s Sean Fraser) but when I’m asked my opinion of the Minister of Housing in a survey, my impressions may be entirely based on how I think they may be performing in the job. If I think housing is a crisis, I might then think the minister responsible must be doing a poor job.
Pollsters can also ask people whether they recognize a name or ask them to name the person who holds a particularly position. In our case, being able to recognize someone from a picture tells us a lot about what someone might know and think about that person.
Two, I think there is a lot we can learn about a whole lot of political decisions or phenomomen from this exercise. Three in particularly stand out to me.
First, there’s a lot of discussion about whether a cabinet shuffle will or won’t change Liberal fortunes. The Globe and Mail is now reporting that the PMO may shuffle Chrystia Freeland out of Finance. but If most Canadians can’t recognize a federal cabinet minister or even the Minister of Finance from a photo, should we expect a shuffle to make any meaningful difference to how people feel about the government or say, the Prime Minister?
Second, if Justin Trudeau does step down, who is best positioned to replace him? By testing familiarity and recognition of some of the candidates, we can get an instant read of how a particular candidate might perform and assess whether anyone has a shot of reviving Liberal fortunes. Perhaps even more useful, tt also will tell us whether it’s even possible to know how Canadians would react to a new leader unless that new leader is already a household name.
How can you know how a new Liberal would do, if say only 1 in 5 people even can recognize them in a picture?
Finally, by testing photo recognition, we can understand whether impressions of Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative lead in the polls is firm or filmsy. Are Canadians, as the Prime Minister argued, “not in decision mode” or do they have a good sense of who Mr. Poilievre is and can recognize him when he appears on their screens?
So I think there’s a lot of value from this very simple exercise.
Here are the results:
Federal Party Leaders
Given the profile of federal party leaders, it’s not surprising that most Canadians can recognize a picture of the leader of Canada’s three largest parties (in terms of vote share). 98% recognize a picture of Justin Trudeau, 84% recognize NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, and 66% recognize a photo of Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.
Given that Poilievre has not fought a national election and has been Conservative leader for less than 2 years while Trudeau is Prime MInister and has been leader since 2013 and Singh has been NDP leader since 2018 and fought two national campaigns, Poilievre is actually doing pretty well in terms of recognition.
But still, 1 in 3 Canadians don’t recognize Pierre Poilievre when they see a picture of him.
About half of Canadians recognize Elizabeth May when they see a picture of her despite her being leader since 2006 and only 1 in 5 Canadians can name BQ Leader Blanchet when they see a picture of him including 49% in Quebec.
Liberal Leadership Candidates and Cabinet Ministers
When we test several cabinet minister and possible leadership candidates, the results are quite different. It’s a stark reminder of much Canadian politics can be in a bubble and how little familiarity Canadians have with anyone who is a federal party leader.
Of the six people we test, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland is by far the most recognizable. 39% could accurately identify who was in the picture (her name or her position) but 61% could not. Foreign Minister Melanie Joly was next at 20% followed by Treasury Board President Anita Anand at 19%, Mark Carney at 7%, Housing Minister Sean Fraser at 4% and Public Safety Minister Dominic Leblanc at 4%.
These results clearly indicated that none of these people are well known, household names. The vast majority of Canadians cannot literally pick them out of a lineup.
What about when look at those who would vote Liberal today? Does that change anything? Not really.
For current Liberal supporters, picture recognition is similar for Chrystia Freeland (39%), slightly higher for Melanie Joly (26%), lower for Anita Anand (14%), marginally higher for Carney (10%), Fraser (8%), and Leblanc (7%).
There is noteworthy that the female cabinet minister or prospective candidates are more recognizable than the male ones.
But the point here is that even among Liberal supporters – those most likely to look and be similar to those who might vote in a leadership race – can’t even identify possible contenders for the leadership if Trudeau was to step down.
So what does this all mean?
Let me go through the three areas where I think these results tell us something useful.
Cabinet Shuffle = Liberal Revival
I don’t believe a cabinet shuffle, even one that moves Minister Freeland out of Finance changes a single thing for the Liberals in terms of public opinion. Why? Because most Canadians have no idea who is in cabinet, what someone in cabinet does, and why a different cabinet might lead to different policies or outcomes.
The only person in that cabinet in which more than 40% of Canadians recognize is the Prime Minister. And based on our polling, you cannot separate how people feel about the Liberal government from how they feel about the Prime Minister.
Consider this: 78% of Canadians who have a positive view of the federal government also have a positive view of the PM.
91% of Canadians who have a negative view of the government also have a negative view of the PM.
Only 25% of Canadians don’t align their views of the PM with their views of his government. And the LPC only gets 23% of the vote among them.
Want to change how people feel about the Liberal government? You’ve got to change the leader. Shuffling people no one knows about or has an impression of will do nothing. It didn’t last summer and it won’t this summer.
Liberal Leadership Race & Liberal Fortunes in the Future
So let’s imagine Prime Minister Trudeau does announce he won’t run again and asks the Liberal Party to start a leadership race. Will a new leader change Liberal fortunes? I don’t think there’s any research we can do to honestly and effectively test that.
Why? Because as we’ve shown here, any of the would-be successors are unknown to the vast majority of Canadians. Let’s say Sean Fraser becomes Prime Minister and Liberal leader and Canadians, when they are exposed to him, like him. That might change how they feel about their choices. The same is true for any one of the six people we tested.
I don’t believe we can guarantee that those who voted Liberal in the past but today are voting Conservative or NDP are gone for good. Most have left the Liberals because they want change. They don’t like Trudeau and can’t imagine what a government led by someone else might look like and what it might do.
Is Pierre Poilievre’s Support Flimsy?
This exercise also gives us some good intel on whether Conservative support is firm or flimsy. Given that 1 in 3 Canadians can’t recognize a picture of Mr. Poilievre, there is some evidence that some people’s impression of him is not well formed. It may not be too late for the Liberals to try and redefine him or define him with those who don’t know much about him.
But there’s also evidence that Poilievre is in a solid place and his support is firm.
When we look at the difference between those who recognize him in the photo and those that don’t, I see two things of note. 44% of these folks have a positive view of him compared with 43% who have anegative view. That +1 net favourable is far better than the -35 facing the PM (who 98% of Canadians recognize and know).
Among those who don’t recognize Poilievre, 26% have a positive impression of him, 28% negative and 30% neutral. That tells me that by just mentioning he is the Conservative leader when we measure leader impressions produces a fair neutral result. Even if people don’t know who Pierre Poilievre is, being Conservative leader is a net neutral proposition.
But most important, among those who recognize a picture of Poilievre, the Conservatives lead by 25-points over the Liberals with 12% undecided. Among those who don’t recognize him, the Conservatives still lead, albeit by a smaller 4-point margin.
The point of all of this is one, when people see a picture or video of Poilievre, most already know it’s him, what is role is, and half of those folks like him.
Two, while there may still be some folks whose impressions of Poilievre can be shaped, we know the Conservatives have far more money than all the parties combined to continue to shape his image as they see fit.
Finally, as I’ve noted in the past, 98% know who Justin Trudeau is. Impressions of him are well-formed, firm, and likely unchangeable. Poilievre is likely in a far better position today than either of the previous two Conservative leaders. If the Liberals think they will be able to shift opinions of him in about a year with little money and a deeply unpopular messenger (Mr. Trudeau), I don’t think they are looking at the same data I am.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,989 Canadian adults from July 4 to 9, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
From July 4 to 9, 2024 Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,989 Canadian adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.
In this edition of our Canadian politics tracking, we ask Canadians about the Toronto-St. Paul byelection and who they expect to win the next federal election, along with our usual trackers.
Vote Intention: Conservatives lead by 20 over the Liberals
Since our last survey, not much has changed. If an election were held today, 43% of committed voters would vote Conservatives, while 23% would vote for the Liberals, 18% for the NDP, and 5% for the Greens. The BQ continues to hold 38% in Quebec.
Every party’s vote share is consistent with the last wave, with very minor changes – the Conservatives are up 1 and the NDP are down 1. These changes are within the margin of error.
Regionally, the Conservatives continue to well ahead in all regions and provinces except for Quebec. From our last survey, the Conservatives’ lead over the Liberals in BC, Ontario and SK/MB has increased. They lead now by 30 points in BC (+5), 42 (+6) in SK/MB, and 21 (+4) in ON.
In Quebec, the BQ is ahead of the Liberals by 12-points with the Conservatives in third at 19%.
Learn about the game-changing tool from the Abacus Data team that makes it possible to estimate polling results to the riding level for improve advocacy and government relations.
Demographically, the Conservatives continue to lead among all groups. Since our last survey, Conservative support among 18-to-29 is up 6 points (37% vs 31%), as support for the Liberals shrank slightly (1 point down) and support for the NDP increased (2 points up).
Among other age groups, vote intention remains relatively stable. Conservative support is at 45% among 45-to-39 (4 points down), as Liberal support increased by 5 points (25% vs 20%).
As in past surveys, we find little difference in vote intention between men and women. The gender gap that was persistent prior to last month, and continues to be non-existent today.
There hasn’t been a shift in vote intentions nor in the size of the party’s accessible voter pools. The Conservative pool remains more than 10 points larger than the Liberal one.
Beyond vote intention, the desire for change remains largely consistent. 85% want change (up 1 point), with 52% believing there’s a good alternative to the Liberals (down 2 poins).
Impressions of Justin Trudeau remain fairly statics but somewhat more negative than last wave.. 59% have a negative impression of the Prime Minister, 1 point up from our last survey, while 24% have a positive view for a net score of -35.
Impressions of Pierre Poilievre also hold steady – 38% have a positive impression (1 down from our last survey), while 37% have a negative impression (1 point up) for a net score of +1.
Perceptions about NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh are similarly consistent and continue to have a favourable net score. Our last survey was the first time since April that Mr. Singh’s net score was positive.
35% having a negative view (unchanged since our last survey), and a slight decrease in negative impressions with 34% (down 1 point), with a net score of -1.
Find out more about the The Three Threads and how the Abacus Data team looks at polling for public affairs and advocacy.
The Mood of the Country
Despite largely unchanged voting intentions and a static pool of accessible voters, the general mood of the country has become more negative over the last month. Today, only 23% feel the country is headed in the right direction, down from 27% in June and reaching the low point in our tracking.
The Toronto-St. Paul by-election
In this edition, we also asked Canadians about the Toronto-St. Paul’s byelection, which marked the first time since 1993 that a Conservative MP has been elected for the riding.
The stunning loss of this Liberal stronghold made headlines across Canada. This is reflected in Canadians’ awareness of the byelection, 67% know the Liberals lost the Toronto-St. Paul’s byelection.
We find, however, that awareness of the by-election results is tightly linked to age. Among those aged 18 to 29, an overwhelming majority (64%) are unaware of the by-election, in contrast to those 60 and over, where only 12% are unaware.
In terms of party affiliation, those who identify NDP are more likely to be unaware of the Toronto-St. Paul’s by-election (49%), while Conservatives are most likely to know about the byelection (72%).
Importantly, we also find that awareness of the byelection outcome contributes to expectations about who might win the next federal election.
Those aware of the Toronto-St. Paul’s by-election are more likely to think the Conservatives will win the next election (58%) than those unaware.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “Now that the Toronto-St. Paul’s byelection loss has settled into people’s minds, we find little change in the overall orientation of Canadians to their political choices in Ottawa.
The Conservatives are ahead by 20 points, the Prime Minister remains deeply unpopular, and the desire for change is broad and fairly deep.
The mood of the country has soured to some extent over the past four weeks despite an interest rate cut. Weak employment numbers means we may see a shift in public mindset from one where the cost of living and affordability are the primary concerns to one where job security is front and centre. This climate will continue to put pressure on the incumbent Liberal’s support and reinforce the public’s desire for change.”
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,989 Canadian adults from July 4 to 9, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
From June 6 to 13, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a national survey involving 1,550 Canadian adults (18+) to gauge their views on the current housing landscape in Canada. The survey was conducted in the wake of the Bank of Canada’s recent 0.25% interest rate reduction. This report focuses in on Canadian perceptions of how the rate cut could impact the housing market, affordability, decisions to buy or sell homes, and current sentiments among mortgage holders.
The recent rate cut by the Bank of Canada has left Canadians cautiously skeptical about its impact on housing market affordability and activity. While a significant majority do not anticipate improvements in affordability or increased housing sales, younger Canadians show more optimism compared to older demographics. The decision-making process for buying or selling homes reflects a wait-and-see approach, with a notable portion intending to delay decisions until further rate cuts are realized.
This release comes following recent reports indicating that home sales across the country did not see an uptick after the BoC’s quarter point cut on June 5th.
Perceptions of the Rate Cut on the Housing Market
The initial rate cut by the Bank of Canada seems to have had a minimal effect on perceptions of the housing market in general. Specifically, 73% of Canadians anticipate that the rate cut will not significantly impact the affordability of major purchases such as homes, while 72% believe it will have little to no effect on the housing market overall.
This sentiment is notably stronger among adults aged 60 and above compared to younger Canadians. That is, 88% of Canadians aged 60 and older believe the rate cut will have minimal impact on purchase affordability, and similarly, 88% of those 60 and older believe it will have little to no impact on the housing market.
Impact on Housing Market Activity
Overall, only 35% of Canadians expect the rate cut to influence housing market activity, while 46% foresee no change in housing sales. Younger Canadians show more optimism, with 44% of those aged 18-29 anticipating increased market activity, contrasting with 26% among adults aged 60 and older.
In addition to its impact on sales, a significant majority of Canadians (80%) do not believe the rate cut will enhance home affordability. This sentiment is particularly strong among older Canadians, with 93% of those aged 60 and above expressing skepticism, compared to 68% of individuals aged 18-29 and 67% of those aged 30-44.
Moreover, a significant portion of Canadians (61%) anticipate no changes in the number of homes sold, while 33% are optimistic that the rate cut will stimulate an increase in housing sales.
These findings underscore a cautious outlook among Canadians regarding the rate cut’s potential effects on both housing market dynamics and affordability.
The Decision to Buy or Sell a Home
Reflecting recent reports indicating the minimal impact of the initial rate cut on the housing market, our findings reveal that only 10% of Canadians plan to expedite their home purchase due to the rate cut, while 21% intend to postpone buying until more rate cuts occur. Additionally, 69% report that the rate cut has had no influence on their purchase timeline.
In terms of selling decisions, just 11% of Canadians are accelerating their home sales in response to the rate cut, while 12% plan to defer selling until further rate reductions take place. A substantial majority (76%) indicate that the rate cut has not affected their decision on when to sell.
These findings underscore a cautious consumer sentiment regarding the rate cut’s influence on buying and selling decisions in the Canadian housing market. Many potential buyers view the initial rate cut as a signal of possible future reductions, prompting them to postpone purchases until more favourable rates materialize.
Relief for Mortgage Holders
When discussing current mortgage holders, much of the focus revolves around how current interest rates will affect their upcoming mortgage renewals, potentially forcing many Canadians to renew at higher rates than they currently enjoy. In our study, 49% of mortgage holders expressed optimism or relief about their upcoming mortgage renewal due to the recent rate cut. This sentiment was most pronounced among those anticipating further rate cuts in 2024, with 66% feeling optimistic or relieved.
Conversely, 39% of Canadians indicated that the current rate cut did not bring them a sense of optimism or relief. This sentiment was particularly strong among those who do not anticipate additional cuts in 2024, suggesting that the current reduction was insufficient to sway their outlook without the prospect of future decreases.
The Upshot
When Canadians look at the recent rate cut by the Bank of Canada, many are playing it safe. They’re not convinced it’ll make buying a home cheaper or shake things up much in the housing market. About half think it won’t really change how homes are sold either.
Our research confirms Canadians are cautious about diving into the housing market right now. They’re holding off on buying homes sooner and not rushing to sell either, even with the rate cut. Mortgage holders are split—some see potential savings on renewals, while others are unsure how future rate changes might play out. This cautious approach shows how Canadians are taking their time to see how things unfold in the housing market.
Canadians’ cautious outlook on the potential impacts of the rate cut indicates a guarded approach to housing market dynamics in Canada. With doubts about improvements in affordability and market activity, the current research suggests that Canadians in the market are likely to proceed carefully, closely watching for future developments before committing to major decisions related to buying, selling, or mortgage renewals.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,550 Canadian adults from June 6 and 13 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
From June 20 to 25, 2024 Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,900 Canadian adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys. In this edition, we ask Canadians about the top issues facing the country today, what motivates them to vote, and their reasons for supporting specific parties.
Mood of the Country and Top Issues Facing Canada Today
Today, 62% of Canadians believe the country is on the wrong track, while only 25% think the country is headed in the right direction. Those over 60 are the most likely to think the country is headed in the right direction while Conservative voters are the least likely. 1 in 3 of those intending to vote Liberal think the country is off on the wrong track.
The top issues of concerns for Canadians remain consistent with our tracking over the past two years. The cost of living remains the largest issue facing more Canadians (71%), followed by housing affordability and accessibility (46%), healthcare (42%), the economy (33%), and immigration (27%). In total, 86% of Canadians put either the cost of living or housing as a top issue.
To anticipate how the ballot question might impact vote intentions, we crossed vote intention by top issues. The Conservative party has a big lead among those who rate the rising cost of living, housing affordability and accessibility, the economy, and immigration as top issues. The Liberals lead only among those who consider climate change and the environment as a top issue, while the NDP leads among those who prioritize inequality and poverty.
These results show that the Conservative Party is currently ahead on the issues that matter most to Canadians. For the Liberals to regain lost ground, they need to demonstrate their ability to address these top issues and rebuild trust with the electorate, or at the very least raise doubts about the alternatives’ ability to manage the issues.
Motivation to Vote in the Next Election
In this survey, we asked a new question we haven’t asked before, specifically, which factors best explain their motivation to vote whenever the next election comes.
Responses are quite mixed. 43% say their vote will be determined by a concern for specific issues facing Canada today. 40% say it is about a desire for change, 40% say it is about civic duty and responsibility, while another 40% cite which option offers the best long-term vision for the country. Note, respondents could select more than one option.
Roughly 1 in 4 Canadians say their vote is more about opposing other candidates than voting for an option, while another 1 in 4 say it’s about support for a specific policy position of a candidate or party.
When we look at the relationship between motivating factors and current federal vote intention, we find that current Conservative voters are motivated most by a desire to see a change in leadership (57%), a focus on specific issues facing Canada (50%), party/leader’s long-term vision for the country (43%), and civic duty and responsibility (38%). 29% say they are voting Conservative in opposition to other candidates.
For Liberal voters, the drivers are a bit different. 47% say it is out of civic duty and responsibility, 41% say it is because of the party/leader’s long-term vision for the country, while 37% say it is because they want to keep the current leader (Trudeau) in Parliament. Another 36% say they are voting Liberal in opposition to other parties.
For NDP voters, the primary drivers are specific issues (49%), a change in leadership (46%), civic duty and responsibility (40%), voting against another party (40%), and long-term vision for the country (38%).
When we flip the analysis and look at how people vote based on their response to the question, we find that the Conservatives are leading by a wide margin among those focused on specific issues facing the country, on those looking for a change in leadership, and among those who like the party/leader’s long-term vision for the country. They also lead among those who support a particular candidate/party’s policies.
The Liberals only lead among those who want to keep the current leader in Parliament and do slightly better among those who say they are voting in opposition to other candidates or parties.
We also explored the specific reasons influencing the decision to vote for a party in the next federal election.
Conservative voters are most likely to be motivated by economic policies (43%), leadership qualities (37%), their desire for change (36%), trust and integrity (30%) and their disapproval of other candidates (28%). They are less likely to be motivated by social issues, healthcare, foreign policies, or other specific issues.
Liberal voters are more motivated by healthcare policies (31%), disapproval of other candidates (30%), leadership qualities (29%), climate change (29%), and economic policies (26%). Not surprisingly, Liberal voters are not motivated by a desire for change.
NDP voters are more motivated by social issues (40%), healthcare policies (32%), a desire for change (29%), economic policies (28%) and trust and integrity (26%).
The Upshot
These findings highlight that many Canadians are motivated by a desire for a change in leadership—it’s almost as big a motivator as any specific issue or policy problem.
Right now, the Conservatives are riding this wave, especially with voters who are engaged with specific problems, want new leadership, and think the Conservative long-term vision is preferable to what is on offer from the Liberals or NDP. On the other hand, the Liberals are mostly appealing to those who want to maintain the current leadership or want a focus on healthcare and social issues and that base is much narrower than the others.
This reaffirms that the primary mindset of Canadians is change. Whether they want a change to specific policies or outcomes or a change in leadership – it is the major driver for Conservative and NDP voters.
While Canadians might not be in a “decision mindset” yet, it’s clear many are focused on change. This desire can impact how people feel about our current government and policies. When voters aren’t happy with how things are or see big issues that need fixing, they tend to look for new leaders or fresh ideas that have the potential to promise better results.
As long as voters are motivated to change governments and leaders and feel the alternatives are safe or acceptable, the Liberals and Prime Minister Trudeau will not regain vote share.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,900 Canadian adults from June 20 to 25, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.25%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
From June 25 and 28, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a survey of 1,000 Albertans aged 18 and over exploring public opinion about provincial politics following Naheed Nenshi’s win as the next leader of the Alberta NDP on June 22.
In this report, we share results of our core political opinion questions which we have tracked over time, delve into public impressions of the provincial government under Danielle Smith’s leadership, examine the key issues currently impacting Albertans, and compare public sentiment of Danielle Smith and Naheed Nenshi.
UCP Holds a 14-point lead over the Alberta NDP
Currently, the UCP have a larger pool of accessible voters (62%) than the the Alberta NDP (48%), highlighting the UCP’s broad appeal to Albertans across the province. This gives the UCP more paths to victory and remains one of its strongest advantages for the Alberta NDP.
If a provincial election were held today, 54% of committed Alberta adults would vote UCP, while 40% would vote for the Alberta NDP, and 6% would choose another party.
Compared to our last survey in March 2024, the UCP’s support is down 1, while the NDP’s support remains unchanged. Since the 2023 provincial election, the NDP has seen a decline of 4-points, whereas the UCP has experienced a 1-point increase. Overall, Nenshi’s victory has not had a noticeable impact on voting intentions in the province.
Regionally, the UCP leads by 4 in Calgary (a smaller margin than we measured in March at 8-points) while the two parties are statistically tied in Edmonton. Outside the two largest cities, the UCP leads by 34-points. Since Nenshi’s victory, the NDP is slightly more popular in Calgary but it’s lead in Edmonton has been reduced from 11-points to 2-points over the UCP.
The UCP continues to hold a wide lead among men (24-points, up from 22 in March), while their lead among women has narrowed to 3 points (down from 7 in March). The UCP maintains a commanding 23-point lead among Albertans aged 60+, whereas the Alberta NDP now has a 5-point lead among Albertans aged 18-29 an improvement since March when we found the UCP ahead by 4.
When asked about their preferred premier, 56% of Albertans favour Danielle Smith, while 44% prefer Naheed Nenshi. Residents in Calgary and Edmonton are evenly split between the two while those outside the big cities prefer Smith to Nenshi by a 2 to 1 margin.
Learn about the game-changing tool from the Abacus Data team that makes it possible to estimate polling results to the riding level for improve advocacy and government relations.
Impressions of Danielle Smith’s Government
Since March, impressions of the provincial government led by Danielle Smith have improved notably. Today, 42% approve of the provincial government’s job performance (up 10 since March) while 39% disapprove. However, those who strongly disapprove (24%) is more than double those who strongly approve (11%).
In Calgary, the Smith government’s net approval rating is +3, up from -13 in March. In Edmonton, it stands at -12, an improvement from -20 in March. In the rest of the province, the approval rating has increased to +15 from +11 in March. These figures indicate that approval of Smith’s government has risen across the province since March of this year, although Edmonton still presents a net negative approval rating.
Mood of the Province + Top Issues Facing Alberta Today
Today, 49% of Albertan’s believe that the province is off on the wrong track (largely unchanged from March) while 35% believe the province is headed in the right direction. For comparison, nationally, 25% of Canadians think the province is headed in the right direction.
It is interesting that more Albertans approve of the provincial government’s performance than think the province is headed in the right direction. In fact, 17% of those who think the province is off on the wrong track approve of the provincial government. It is likely these people blame something else (think federal government or global events) for the direction of the province rather than the provincial government.
The cost of living is by far the most important issue for Albertans today. 3 in 4 rate it as one of their top 3 issues. Healthcare, housing, taxes, and the economy round out the top 5.
Interestingly, despite Calgary’s state of emergency related to a major watermain break, only 8% of Albertans rate “infrastructure in Alberta’s cities” as a top issue and Calgarians are no more likely to rate it as a top issue than those in other parts of the province.
Albertans were asked which party leader – Danielle Smith or Naheed Nenshi – they trust most to deal with each issue.
Danielle Smith has a wide lead on who Albertans trust most to defend Alberta against the federal government (+33), protecting the rights of gun owners (+34), managing the economy (+17), keeping taxes low (+11), business attraction (+18), the cost of living (+7), and infrastructure (+7).
Naheed Nenshi leads on climate change (+11), protecting the environment (+11), wealth inequality (+8), healthcare (+10) and education (+7).
Smith and Nenshi are tied on education (38% each).
Impressions of Party Leaders
To assess how well people know Naheed Nenshi as he takes over the leadership of the Alberta NDP from Rachel Notley, we asked people to rate their knowledge of both Smith and Nenshi.
Not surprisingly, Danielle Smith is better known than Naheed Nenshi. When we combine those who say they know the leaders pretty or very well, Smith’s familiarity score is 73% while Nenshi’s is 53%. Despite being Calgary’s Mayor for more than decade, many Albertans don’t know much about Nenshi and that’s very clear when we look at the region breakouts.
In Calgary, 73% say they know Nenshi at least pretty well compared with only 44% in the rest of the province.
Find out more about the The Three Threads and how the Abacus Data team looks at polling for public affairs and advocacy.
Both political party leaders have fairly good personal images (at least compared to political leaders federally or in other provinces. Danielle Smith has a net favourable impression of +2 with 41% having a positive view of her and 39% having a negative view.
In comparison, Naheed Nenshi’s net favourable is even with 32% having a positive view and 32% having a negative one.
Premier Smith’s net favourability is highest in communities outside Calgary and Edmonton (+11), among those aged 45-59 (+20), and those aged 60 and older (+12). Conversely, Naheed Nenshi’s net favourability is greatest in Calgary (+21) and Edmonton (+5), as well as among those aged 18-29 (+7). Premier Smith garners the highest favourability among older residents and rural communities outside Calgary and Edmonton, while Naheed Nenshi’s strongest support comes from younger adults and urban areas like Calgary and Edmonton.
Respondents were also asked to rate Danielle Smith and Naheed Nenshi on various leadership qualities. Smith was more likely to be seen as a strong leader (53%) and someone who stands up for Albertans (50%) compared to Nenshi.
In contrast, Nenshi was more likely to be viewed as intelligent (57%) and kind and compassionate (48%) compared to Smith. Additionally, Nenshi was perceived as someone motivated by genuine concern for their community (42%) and understanding of the challenges faced by Albertans (40%). These findings indicate that Albertans perceive Danielle Smith as a strong leader, while they see Nenshi as empathetic and in touch with the personal aspects of politics.
However, when we focus on only those who know each leader at least “pretty well”, we find Nenshi holding a considerable advantage over Smith. This suggests that as people get to know Nenshi better across the province, he has the potential to shift impressions of the party and maybe increase the number of Albertans willing to consider voting NDP.
In other words, there’s a chance that the more Albertans get to know Nenshi, the more they will like him.
NDP Divorce? Should the AB NDP split from the federal party?
After being elected as the new leader of the Alberta NDP, Naheed Nenshi indicated his intention to ask party members about splitting from the federal party, a key issue in his campaign.
When asked, 49% of Albertans support the Alberta NDP severing ties with the federal party, while 21% oppose it. This decision is strongly supported by accessible Alberta NDP voters (51%), Alberta NDP supporters (49%), and even federal NDP supporters (43%). This shows a significant portion of Albertans favor more autonomy for the provincial party.
The Upshot
Naheed Nenshi’s landslide victory for the Alberta NDP leadership has not had a major impact on public opinion in Alberta but it has shifted two aspects of political opinion: the Alberta NDP is more competitive in Calgary but has less of a dominant lead in Edmonton.
Nenshi takes over the Alberta NDP at a time when Danielle Smith and her government are relatively popular (at least compared to other incumbent governments in Canada). More people have a positive view of Premier Smith than a negative one. The UCP has a big advantage on several of the top issues including the cost of living, the economy, and taxes and is tied with the NDP on housing. Healthcare remains a vulnerability for the UCP and an opportunity for Nenshi and the NDP.
Perhaps more concerning for Nenshi is the substantially larger pool of accessible voters available to the UCP than the NDP. The UCP’s advantage outside of two largest cities remains a big hurdle for a future NDP government and changing the public’s perception of the NDP is going to be an important step in fixing that. There’s broad support for splitting the provincial NDP from the federal party, so that could be a first step in that process.
But this poll also confirms that Nenshi could be threat to the UCP. Those who know Nenshi like him which is probably why the UCP has already started trying to define him to the close to half of Albertans who don’t know the former Calgary mayor all that well.
It’s still too early to determine Naheed Nenshi’s influence on Albertan politics, but early signs indicate he holds promise as a worthy challenger to Danielle Smith and the UCP. How effectively he connects on key issues for Albertans, is able to shift perceptions about the party itself, and increases his visibility across the province will be pivotal in shaping voter opinions moving forward.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,000 Canadian adults from June 25 to 28, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.31%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
From June 20 to June 25, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a survey of 1,000 eligible voters in Ontario exploring several topics as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.
Every month, with our media partner the Toronto Star, we track how Ontarians are feeling about their political choices and add new topics based on current events and discussions. In this edition of the survey, we explore how people feel if Premier Ford called for an early election along with our usual trackers.
Doug Ford’s and Ontario PCs lead by 16-points over Bonnie Crombie’s Ontario Liberals, NDP gain 3 points.
If an election were held today, 41% of committed voters in Ontario would vote PC. The Ontario Liberals are at 25%, with the Ontario NDP closely behind at 22%, and the Greens at 8%.
These results continue to be consistent with previous surveys, including last month’s, and changes are within the margin of error of the survey.
Our data finds a symmetry between federal and provincial voting intentions. Both the Ontario PCs and Liberal vote share in Ontario is slightly lower than their federal cousins. The Ontario NDP vote share is slightly higher than their federal counterpart.
Regionally, the Ontario PCs are also ahead in every region of the province. They lead by 13 points in Toronto, 19 in the GTHA, 21 in southwestern Ontario, and 18 in eastern Ontario.
Importantly, compared to our last survey, the Ontario PCs have gained ground in southwestern Ontario (rising by 7 points) and eastern Ontario (rising by 4 points). For the Ontario Liberals support is slightly down across most regions and 4 points down in the GTHA.
The Ontario PCs also lead in all demographic groups. They are well ahead among men (23-point lead) and among those over 44 years of age. There are two important changes from our last survey.
Last May, among women, the PCs and Liberals were in a tight race. This month, Ontario PCs’ lead the Liberals by 10 points, as support for the PCs increased by 6 points and support for the Liberals decreased by 5 points. Similarly, among those 45 to 59, the PCs are now ahead by 19 points, an increase of 8 points from last month.
As with vote intention, party leader impressions are largely the same as last month. While 35% have a positive view of Premier Ford (a 4-point increase from last month), he has net score of -10. This represents a 2-point drop since last month, as negatives have increased as well.
In contrast, impressions of NDP leader Marit Stiles and Green Party leader Mike Schreiner are net positive. NDP leader Marit Stiles has a net score of +4 and Green Party leader Mike Schreiner has a net score of +5. Impressions of Ontario Liberal Party leader, Bonnie Crombie, decreased marginally, with a net impression of -2. All in, there has been little change in how Ontarians feel about the party leaders.
Government Disapproval Jumps 5-Points
Today, 34% of Ontarians say they approve of the job performance of Doug Ford and the provincial government, down 3-points from last month while those disapproving is up to 45%. This is the highest level of disapproval since February but still lower than the 48% we measured at the start of the year.
An Early Provincial Election?
Media organizations have reported that the PCs and the Premier are considering calling a provincial election earlier than the scheduled June 2026 timeline.
To assess how the public might react to this, we randomly split our sample and asked people how they would feel if Premier Ford called an early election with three different contexts.
A third of the sample was asked the question without any additional information (let’s call this the control group), a third was shown what an election might cost (experimental group 1), and a third was told that the Premier was calling the election to take advantage of Justin Trudeau’s unpopularity (experimental group 2)
In all three cases, most Ontarians are either happy or unbothered by the prospect of an early election.
When the “control group” was asked their reaction to an early election without any framing, 36% indicated they would be happy with the decision while another 50% said their reaction would be neutral. Only 15% indicated they would be unhappy.
When “experimental group 1” was told that the election would cost $150 million to administer, negative reactions rise to 44% with the rest being either happy (17%) or neutral (39%).
For “experimental group 2”, when told the Premier would call the early election to take advantage of Justin Trudeau’s unpopularity, 20% react negatively, 29% positively, and the remaining 51% have a neutral reaction.
The proportions and dynamics are similar among those who voted PC in 2022. An early election call in which the cost is front and centre creates some friction but not substantially so. 10% of PC voters say they would be very unhappy with an early election when the cost of an election is included in the question.
The Upshot
Since our last survey little there have been some changes across the province. While the Ontario PCs continue to lead by a wide margin, the government’s approval has turned more negative. Almost half of Ontarians now disapprove of the government’s performance, a level not seen in our tracking since February.
If an election was held today, the Ford PCs would likely win another majority. The Ontario Liberals under Bonnie Crombie’s leadership have yet to gain any traction while the Ontario NDP has gained a bit more support but still trail in third place. Marit Stiles has a net favourable impression but there are still many Ontarians who don’t know her that well. This is both an opportunity and a threat.
Finally, an early election call is unlikely to create much friction for the provincial government unless the cost is well understood and becomes a lightening rod for discontent.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,000 eligible voters in Ontario from June 20 to 25, 2024.
A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc. Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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