How Donald Trump Is Reshaping Canadian Consumer Behaviour

Consumer behaviour is shaped by a myriad of factors—price, quality, convenience, social proof—but one of the most powerful drivers is emotion.

When people feel strongly about an issue, they often vote with their wallets, rewarding or punishing brands and products in direct response to their views and values. Today, Canadian consumers are in the midst of an emotional, politically charged moment, and this is having a tangible effect on how and where they shop.

At Abacus Data, we’ve been tracking these shifts in sentiment closely. We wanted to understand how Canadians’ feelings about President Donald Trump and his policies translate into concrete actions—and the results are striking. Our latest research points to a rapidly growing desire among Canadians to buy local, and in some cases, to avoid American products entirely. It’s not just talk: 42% of respondents say they will “absolutely do everything” they can to avoid buying products made in the United States or from American companies.

While boycotts or “buy local” movements aren’t new, the current surge reflects a sense of personal conviction that’s animated by real-time political and cultural events. The data tell us that 84% of Canadians surveyed say they have considered buying more Canadian-made products in the past few days alone, while 34% have cancelled a trip to the U.S., and 32% have either cancelled or seriously considered cancelling streaming services owned by American companies. This uptick in conscious consumerism stems from a desire to send a clear message: Canadian shoppers want to support homegrown brands and manufacturers they see as reflecting their values.

Interestingly, many Canadians aren’t always sure which brands are truly Canadian. Our research shows that 67% think Tim Hortons is Canadian, 68% believe Molson remains a Canadian company, 41% believe Boston Pizza is Canadian, and 57% see Dollarama as homegrown. The reality behind corporate ownership and supply chains can be far more complicated.

In the same vein, perceptions about where our food comes from are equally hazy. Forty-two percent think most packaged food in Canadian grocery stores is made in Canada, while 40% believe this is false—showing a genuine knowledge gap and a chance for brands to educate consumers.

This environment poses both challenges and opportunities for marketers. If you’re an American-owned or American-identified brand selling in Canada, you need to think carefully about how you communicate your local connections. Are you sourcing Canadian ingredients? Do you employ Canadians in a meaningful way? Are you contributing to local communities? Transparently sharing these details can help mitigate negative perceptions tied to your U.S. origins.

On the flip side, Canadian brands should seize this moment to highlight their roots, proudly proclaiming how their supply chains, partnerships, and workforce bolster the Canadian economy.

Moreover, the emotional dimension of consumer choice is not something to overlook or minimize. This is where traditional usage and attitudes studies can fall short. Yes, you still need to understand how consumers use your product and how they feel about your brand’s performance. But in times of political upheaval, it’s also critical to grasp the broader societal issues that shape how Canadians perceive you—and how willing they are to support you.

At Abacus Data, we’re increasingly incorporating questions about political identity, cultural values, and current events into our market research. We find it offers richer insights into the emotional and moral underpinnings of purchase decisions, and allows brands to respond with more empathetic, resonant marketing strategies.

Donald Trump has stirred a wave of Canadian nationalism and pride that is rapidly changing the retail and consumer landscape. People want to buy Canadian-made products, they want to reward companies that reflect Canadian values, and they have become more inclined to punish companies they see as tied too closely to the U.S. market or political sphere. Brands would be wise to keep a close eye on this trend, clarify their origins, and adapt their messages to speak to both the head and the heart of Canadian consumers.

Above all, if there’s one key takeaway, it’s that market research must evolve alongside consumer attitudes. Understanding the political and emotional triggers that spark changes in shopping behaviour can be the difference between winning over newly fired-up Canadians or watching them walk away. And in this new environment, that difference is more important than ever.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Ontario Election 2025: A Stable Race with Some Dynamic Undercurrents

From February 4 to 6, 2025, we conducted a representative online survey of 2,000 eligible voters in Ontario. This is our second survey of the campaign in partnership with our media partner The Toronto Star.

Our latest results suggest the Ford PCs remain the clear favourites to be re-elected but has been some notable shifts in other measures.

The Progressive Conservatives (PCs) continue to lead, with 37% support among all eligible voters—a slight dip of two points since late January. The Ontario Liberals hold at 19%, while the New Democrats (NDP) see a modest two-point gain, rising to 17%. The Greens remain at 4%, and 20% of voters remain undecided.

Among committed voters, the PCs stand at 46%, a one-point decline, while the Liberals (24%) and NDP (21%, +2) remain relatively steady. Notably, when looking at likely voters—those who say they are certain to cast a ballot—the PCs gain further ground, rising to 49%, with the Liberals and NDP statistically tied (23% vs. 22%). This suggests that the PCs continue to benefit from an engaged and motivated base, giving them an advantage if voter turnout is low.

Regionally, the PCs maintain their dominance in key battlegrounds. In the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA), they sit at 52%, a commanding lead over the Liberals (24%) and the NDP (17%). They also hold the advantage in southwestern Ontario (42%) and eastern Ontario (44%). Toronto proper remains more competitive, with the Liberals 10-points behind the PCs (40% to 30%) and the NDP at 21%.

Looking at demographics, the PCs hold a significant lead among men (50%) but face a more competitive race among women (42% PC, 24% Liberal, 24% NDP). Age dynamics reveal a clear generational divide: among voters aged 18-29, the NDP is stronger and statistically tied with the PCs (31%), while the PCs dominate among those over 45. The Liberals, meanwhile, draw relatively even support across all age groups but fail to break through in any one segment.

Party Leader Impressions & Best Premier

Premier Doug Ford’s net impression rating has declined slightly, with 37% of Ontarians holding a positive view of him (down four points), while 39% view him negatively (up two points). His net approval now sits at -2. Despite this, he remains the most recognized leader in the province, while his rivals continue to struggle with visibility.

Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie’s negatives have ticked up (now at 35%, up one point), though more Ontarians are now aware of her, with fewer respondents saying they don’t know enough to have an opinion. NDP leader Marit Stiles sees a slight improvement, with her net impression rising to +1 as more voters become familiar with her. Green leader Mike Schreiner’s net impression has declined slightly (-3), though he remains the most neutral leader in the eyes of the public.

Doug Ford remains well ahead of the other party leaders who preferred Premier, although the gap has closed slightly over the last two weeks.

At the same time, we also see the provincial government’s approval rating dropping over the past two weeks.

The Issues

The issues voters want to see discussed during the campaign have not changed at all since our first survey. Affordability, housing, and healthcare dominate with Trump’s tarrifs and the economy rounding out the top 5.

When it comes to the issues that matter most, the Progressive Conservatives continue to hold the advantage. They lead on every major policy issue, but their most significant strengths are on economic management and dealing with the impact of Donald Trump’s tariffs (35-point lead over the Liberals).

Ford’s PCs are seen as the best party to handle economic growth and job creation (38%) and managing the cost of living (33%). In contrast, only 18% believe the Liberals would be better at handling affordability, while 19% prefer the NDP. Even on healthcare and education—issues traditionally seen as opposition strengths—the PCs hold narrow leads, though these files remain more competitive.

Hot Mic: Will Ford’s addmission of supporting Trump hurt?

Doug Ford’s hot mic moment expressing support for Donald Trump appears to have little immediate impact on his core supporters—40% of PC voters say it makes them more likely to support him, while 51% say it has no impact. Only 9% of PC supporters (and 3% of the electorate) say they are less likely to vote PC.

For NDP and Liberal supporters, the reaction is predictably negative, with about 60% saying it makes them less likely to vote for Ford.

The key question is whether this becomes a lasting liability, particularly with the Ontario Liberals preparing to run attack ads highlighting the comments. Telling voters that Ford praised Trump is one thing—showing them footage of him saying it is another entirely. Our next survey will reveal whether this moment fades or sticks, potentially shifting undecided voters and soft PC supporters.

Desire for Change Edging Up

As often happens over the course of an election campaign, we are seeing the number of people who definitely want to see a change in government rising.

The latest survey finds that 52% of Ontarians say it is “definitely time for a change in government,” a four-point increase since late January. However, historical comparisons suggest that this figure, while notable, does not yet indicate the PCs are in serious trouble.

Additionally, only 21% say Ford and the PCs “should definitely be re-elected,” while 16% say they would prefer a change but don’t see it as a priority. This suggests that while there is a growing appetite for change, the opposition has yet to consolidate enough support to pose a serious electoral threat.

Standing up to a Bully or Hosting a Party?

A series of lighter questions in the survey offer insight into how Ontarians perceive their leaders beyond traditional policy metrics. Ford is seen as the best leader to host a party (35%), sit beside on a long flight (29%), and—perhaps most importantly—stand up to a bully (50%). These attributes reflect a perception of Ford as a strong, relatable, and resilient figure, qualities that have helped solidify his political brand.

In contrast there is far more uncertainty around who would best put out a kitchen fire or give advice on investing money suggesting that many Ontarians don’t think Ford would be good at those but don’t know enough about the opposition leaders say if they would be better. This question underscores the familiarity advantage that Doug Ford has over the other party leaders.

UPSHOT

According to David Coletto: “As Ontario inches closer to an election, the question remains: what will define the campaign? For now, the immediate economic threat posed by Trump’s tariffs appears to have eased, opening the door for other issues to take center stage. If the election remains focused on affordability and economic management, Ford and the PCs will be well-positioned to win. However, if healthcare, education, or broader questions of government competence become dominant themes, the race could tighten.

In the period they have left, either Bonnie Crombie or Marit Stiles have to do a few things to have a shot at winning this election. They have to increase the desire for change and consolidate those change voters around their party. Right now, neither of those two things are happening.

There may not be enough time or the right set of issues to achieve this.”

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 2,000 eligible voters in Ontario from February 4 to 6, 2025.

A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Introducing Lora-Lynn, Sophie, and Tony: The typical voters of today's Liberal Party of Canada

In a previous column for The Hub, I explored the “core” Liberal Party base, estimating it to be surprisingly small (only 7 percent of the electorate), when we strip away more casual or wavering supporters. Now, inspired by the demographic segmentation tactics once used by Harper’s Conservatives—who gave their voter personas names like “Dougie”—the hardworking, blue-collar white guy who was a big sports fan, drank beer and Timmy’s coffee, and loved roaming around his local Home Depot—I wanted to explore what typical Liberal voter personas looks like today.

The team at The Hub asked if I could create similar fictional but data-driven snapshots of today’s typical Liberal Party supporter. Drawing on recent Abacus Data surveys and using regression modeling, I built three “personas” that I think capture the type of people still leaning Liberal, even after the party’s appeal has greatly narrowed over the past year. Each persona illustrates a real slice of the Grit voter coalition, highlighting distinct life circumstances and policy priorities that bring them under the red tent.

Maximum Impact Words: Research in Action

I’ve spent countless hours in focus groups and analyzing polling data, and one thing stands out every time: language matters.

If we’re discussing economic issues, we need to connect them to everyday realities—like paying rent and putting food on the table—rather than relying on abstract buzzwords.

My research consistently shows that people respond to hearing about bigger paycheques, more jobs, and straightforward buying and selling with other countries. These are tangible ideas tied to everyday life, and they carry more weight than familiar yet impersonal terms like “growth” and “trade.” Our job is to reflect their needs—plain and simple.

That’s why I recommend replacing “profitability” with “affordability.” It instantly shifts the focus from a corporation’s bottom line to the cost pressures families face every day.

Similarly, “competitiveness” may be a well-worn term in policy circles, but folks are more responsive when we talk about the “cost of making things.”

This suggests we’re paying attention to the factors that drive up prices on basic goods.

And when we say “me”, “industry”, or “economy”, we risk sounding self-centred, especially if we’re speaking on behalf of broader interests.

People want to know you’re working for Canadian workers and consumers, not just your own bottom line or political gain.

In this crazy moment of disruption and change, clarity is everything.

Your job as communicators and leaders – whether in politics, business, or advocacy—is to connect abstract concepts to the real-world implications people feel in their bank accounts.

Timely and high-quality research helps reveal what resonates and identifies the unmet need of your audience: we need to talk about bigger paycheques, lower costs, and a fair shot at a decent life. This isn’t about dumbing things down; it’s about meeting people where they are.

By framing economic policy in language that centres on everyday concerns, we make it more accessible and demonstrate that we understand what truly matters to the public.

And here’s where our product offering at Abacus Data—Maximum Impact Words—comes into play.

It’s a toolkit designed to identify the precise language that resonates with everyday Canadian and specific segments and audiences.

By analyzing how people respond to various terms and phrases, we ensure every message you craft is driven by data, rooted in real-world anxieties, and primed for genuine impact. This approach transforms buzzwords and what you think works, into powerful actual connectors.

Stay tuned for some fascinating research I did that digs into this.

In the meantime, when you have a high-stakes moment, or the coming launch of a major new strategy, remember: if your story doesn’t speak to everyday worries, it might not stick. Effective communication is grounded in words that reflect tangible outcomes for families, communities, and workers.

We’re not just talking semantics here; we’re talking about trust. When people hear bigger paycheques instead of growth, or the cost of making things instead of competitiveness, they see their own struggles and aspirations reflected back.

That’s how you build credibility and influence. Language choices can galvanize support—or leave people cold. It’s our responsibility to pick the right words and remind our audiences that we’re in their corner.

Finally, never forget that good decisions and effective communication require a solid foundation of research and analysis. By continually testing messages and gathering real-world feedback, we ensure our words remain grounded in what people truly care about—and that’s how we make a real difference.

My team at Abacus Data is here to help.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Trudeau's exit, Trump's rhetoric, and plan to scrap carbon tax tighten polls, say pollsters

An Abacus Data poll from Jan. 28 reflected a five-point gain for the Liberals. The latest results placed the Conservatives at 43 per cent, the Liberals at 22 per cent, the NDP at 18 per cent, and the Greens at five per cent. In contrast, on Jan. 14, the Conservatives polled at 46 per cent, the Liberals at 20 per cent, the NDP at 19 per cent, and the Greens at four per cent.

67% of Canadians Recognize Homelessness as a Housing Issue Needing Immediate Action

In part three of our series examining the current state of housing in Canada, we focus our attention on homelessness. This study, which engaged 6,000 Canadian adults (aged 18 and older) and was conducted between September 26 and October 9, 2024, in partnership with the Canadian Alliance to End Homelessness (CAEH), the Co-operative Housing Federation of Canada (CHF Canada), and the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).

This report highlights the growing urgency of homelessness in Canada, which has emerged as a top concern among Canadians, surpassing issues like crime, immigration, and climate change. The findings highlight the increasing visibility of homelessness, and the widespread recognition that it is driven largely by systemic challenges, such as unaffordable housing. As Canadians call for action, there is strong support for government intervention, with many viewing access to shelter as a fundamental right for all Canadians.

Top Insights

  • Homelessness as a Top Concern: 23% of Canadians rank homelessness as one of the top three national issues, placing it ahead of crime, immigration, and climate change.
  • Increasing Visibility: 67% of Canadians report seeing homelessness in their communities, with higher visibility in urban areas and provinces like Ontario and British Columbia.
  • Growing Fear of Housing Insecurity: 57% of Canadians worry about losing their home, with concerns particularly high among younger Canadians and those in lower-income brackets.
  • Support for Government Action: 67% of Canadians agree that homelessness is a housing issue that requires immediate government intervention, emphasizing the need for coordinated, multi-level government efforts.

    Homelessness as a Top Concern in Canada

    Homelessness has become one of the top concerns for Canadians, with 23% ranking it as one of the top three issues the country faces, making it the fifth most significant issue overall. This places it ahead of concerns like crime and public safety (17%), immigration (17%), and climate change (13%), highlighting the urgency of addressing this crisis.

    The issue is especially pressing in certain provinces, with 26% of Ontarians and 24% of British Columbians identifying homelessness as a primary concern. Urban residents are also more likely to prioritize homelessness, with 27% in cities ranking it above concerns like the economy (24%).

    The Growing Visibility of Homelessness Across Canada

    67% of Canadians indicate that homelessness is prevalent within their communities., with urban residents and those in British Columbia and Ontario more likely to perceive it as “very” prevalent. In British Columbia, 35% of residents see it as a highly visible problem, while 32% of urban dwellers and 28% of Ontarians share similar views. As the issue becomes more noticeable, it signals a broader recognition of homelessness as a pressing concern in Canada.

    Furthermore, over half of Canadians (54%) have observed a rise in homelessness over the past year in their community, with British Columbia (60%) and Ontario (57%) residents more likely to have observed an increase in homelessness. This rise in visibility is noted across the political spectrum, with both Conservative (59%) and NDP (60%) supporters at the federal level acknowledging the increase, although Liberal supporters are less likely to recognize this rise, with only 48% noting the trend.

    Fears of Homelessness and Housing Insecurity

    Concerns about homelessness in Canada go beyond its rising prevalence in communities, highlighting broader fears related to the housing crisis, inflation, and the cost of living – 57% of Canadians worry about losing their home or rental if their financial situation were to change. This concern is especially pronounced among younger Canadians, with 65% of those aged 18-29 and 71% of those aged 30-44 expressing fear. Lower-income individuals (65%) and residents of British Columbia (63%) and Ontario (61%) are also most concerned, reflecting the impact of high housing costs in these regions.

    The fear of displacement extends beyond losing ones current home or rental unit, with one in five Canadians worried about experiencing homelessness if their financial situation worsens. This concern is especially high among younger middle-aged groups (25% of those aged 30-44) and those earning less than $50,000 (29%). These findings emphasize the growing insecurity around housing, underlining the need for stronger support systems to prevent homelessness and protect vulnerable Canadians.

    Compassion and Complexity: Understanding the Causes of Homelessness in Canada

    The majority of Canadians express compassion for those experiencing homelessness, with 59% showing concern and 56% feeling sympathy. Only 13% have negative feelings, indicating that most Canadians view homelessness with empathy rather than judgment and negativity.

    Canadians are increasingly acknowledging that homelessness is primarily a housing issue, driven by systemic challenges. In fact, 61% of Canadians believe homelessness is mainly caused by systemic issues such as unaffordable housing or job loss. This growing awareness emphasizes that homelessness is fundamentally a housing problem, highlighting the urgent need for solutions focused on expanding affordable housing and addressing the housing crisis, with many Canadians believing that tackling the housing crisis is key to resolving homelessness.

    Addressing Homelessness: A National Priority and a Human Right

    Finding viable solutions to homelessness has become a high priority for many Canadians, with 68% considering it a top issue that requires immediate attention. While NDP (76%) and Liberal Party of Canada (71%) supporters are particularly focused on addressing homelessness, a majority of Conservative supporters (62%) also recognize its urgency. This growing consensus highlights the recognition that homelessness is a critical social issue demanding immediate action.

    The growing perception that homelessness is a matter of basic human rights is evident, with 63% of Canadians who prioritize solutions believing that access to shelter and security should be guaranteed. Additionally, 62% see it as an escalating problem requiring immediate action, and 59% believe that reducing homelessness will enhance overall community well-being. This shift highlights a deepening understanding that addressing homelessness not only benefits individuals but also strengthens society as a whole.

    Furthermore, a significant 83% of Canadians agree that everyone deserves a place to call home, with 78% viewing housing as a basic human right. In contrast, only 30% believe that the government should not fund others’ housing, reflecting a growing belief that the government has a key role in solving homelessness and ensuring that everyone has access to a safe place to live.

    Government Action: A Call for Provincial and Federal Responsibility

    A clear majority of Canadians (67%) believe that homelessness is fundamentally a housing issue that requires immediate government intervention. This sentiment is especially strong among NDP supporters (73%), while a significant portion of Conservative Party of Canada (58%) and Liberal Party of Canada (59%) supporters also emphasize the importance of government action. This widespread consensus highlights the expectation that the government must step in to address the homelessness crisis.

    Furthermore, Canadians overwhelmingly agree that tackling homelessness is a shared responsibility across various levels of government. 61% of Canadians hold the provincial government accountable, 60% believe the federal government must play a critical role, and 56% see municipal governments as responsible for addressing this issue. This broad recognition underscores the need for a coordinated, multi-level government response to homelessness, with both provincial and federal governments playing central roles in finding effective solutions.

    Finding a Solution: Optimism and Support for Action on Homelessness

    A large majority of Canadians (79%) are optimistic about the possibility of reducing homelessness, with 10% believing it can be completely eliminated. Only 13% of Canadians believe that homelessness is so bad that we will never be able to manage it, indicating an optimistic outlook on potential solutions and a belief that meaningful change is possible.

    To address homelessness, Canadians emphasize the need for coordinated and comprehensive strategies.  A significant 57% support a national plan with specific targets for reducing homelessness across all levels of government, while 52% favor expanding federal programs to help individuals transition into stable housing. Additionally, 42% support providing financial assistance to those at risk of losing their homes. These findings reflect a growing consensus that addressing homelessness requires a mix of immediate intervention and long-term, strategic planning.

    The Upshot

    Homelessness in Canada has become an urgent issue, increasingly seen as part of the broader housing crisis. Canadians recognize that a lack of affordable housing, high costs, and systemic barriers are the main drivers of homelessness in Canada today. As awareness grows, so does the demand for well-thought, long-term solutions, rather than relying on the use of punitive measures. Most Canadians view access to safe, affordable housing as a basic human right, shifting the focus from temporary measures such as using enforcement to clear encampments to developing sustainable strategies that prioritize stability and support.

    Canadians agree that homelessness requires coordinated action from all levels of government, with provinces and the federal government taking the lead. A holistic approach must address both the immediate crisis and long-term structural issues, including expanding affordable housing, providing financial support, and implementing prevention programs to ensure long-term housing stability.

    As visibility grows and concern over housing insecurity intensifies, the need for action has never been more urgent. Canada’s approach must go beyond increasing housing supply and focus on addressing the root causes of insecurity. By working together, governments at all levels can create an environment where all Canadians have access to safe, stable housing, moving us closer to resolving homelessness and ensuring a secure future for all. With a coordinated, thoughtful approach, Canada can make meaningful progress in resolving homelessness and building a more secure future for everyone.

    Methodology

    The survey was conducted with 6,000 Canadian adults from September 26 to October 9, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

    The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.27%, 19 times out of 20.

    The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.

    This survey was paid for by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), the Canadian Alliance to End Homelessness (CAEH), and the Co-operative Housing Federation of Canada (CHF Canada).

    Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

    About Abacus Data

    We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

    We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

    We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

    Contact us with any questions

    Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

    What Americans think about Canada, tariffs, and a possible trade war: GZERO Media / Abacus Data poll

    It’s been over a week since President Donald Trump’s inauguration and we are waiting to see whether he imposes the tariffs he said could come into effect on February 1. Trade tensions between the United States and Canada are once again front and centre. Given this, I’ve been wondering what American public opinion is on all of this. So I conducted a survey in partnership with our friends at GZERO Media.

    I wanted to assess whether Americans support hardline trade actions, or whether Canada’s longstanding reputation as a friendly neighbour can still carry the day. I was also interested in what President Trump’s supporters though.

    The GZERO/Abacus Data survey of 1,500 eligible voters in the United States —conducted January 23 to 24, 2025—offers valuable insights into how everyday Americans view Canada and the bilateral relationship.

    What Americans Think About Canada

    Overall, Americans hold Canada in high regard. The country’s net impression score sits at a robust +61, placing it among the most positively viewed foreign nations we tested with Australia seen only slightly more positively.

    This friendly sentiment is further underscored by the fact that over half of respondents (54%) describe the U.S.-Canada relationship as that of “best friends” or “close friends,” while few see Canada as a rival or potential adversary. However, not all Americans share the same intensity of positivity. Respondents in Northeastern states and those who voted for Kamala Harris in the 2024 election show particularly warm feelings, while Trump voters and residents of the Great Lakes/Midwest region are a bit more reserved. As trade disputes loom, these subgroup differences may help explain why certain Americans might be more receptive to escalated rhetoric—or more cautious about risking an alliance.

    Perceptions about CUSMA/USMCA

    Despite ongoing debates over trade policy, most Americans view CUSMA or USMCA favourably, especially when they learn that it was first negotiated by President Trump in 2018. Overall, just over half (52%) of respondents think the deal has been “very good” or “good” for the United States, compared to only 10% who deem it “bad” or “very bad,” while 38% remain neutral.

    Among Republicans and Trump voters, however, the numbers are strikingly positive. A full 32% of self-identified Republicans rate the agreement as “very good,” with another 33% calling it “good.” The pattern is nearly identical among Trump voters: 32% “very good” and 33% “good,” indicating that fully two-thirds of Trump supporters have a favorable perception of the deal. Only 7% of Trump voters categorize it as bad or very bad, reinforcing their confidence in the agreement’s benefits.

    This heightened approval appears to stem from the belief that President Trump secured advantageous terms for U.S. industries and workers. While voters from other parties—particularly Democrats—offer more tempered views, CUSMA clearly stands out as a Trump-era policy that resonates strongly with his base, reinforcing their support for his more aggressive trade posture. And it’s highly likely that President Trump could shift the views of his base to see the deal as ineffective today and in need of renegotiation.

    More Context – What do Americans think and believe?

    Americans hold a wide array of beliefs—some accurate, some misinformed—about Canada and the nature of the two countries’ economic relationship. As the possibility of another tariff fight looms, these perceptions matter greatly, shaping how receptive Americans might be to stiffer trade barriers or more aggressive rhetoric.

    One of the clearest findings is that an overwhelming majority (86%) believe Canada and the United States are allies. Similarly, 84% accept that free trade between the two countries generally makes both better off. Yet alongside this goodwill, 56% also believe that Canada benefits “way more” from free trade with the U.S. By seeing Canada as the bigger winner, many Americans could be more inclined to back tariffs meant to “rebalance” perceived inequalities.

    These attitudes intersect with beliefs about energy independence. A majority (65%) of Americans think the U.S. produces enough oil domestically to meet all of its needs, including a notably high proportion of Trump voters (75% when combining “definitely true” and “probably true”). Such confidence may diminish the perceived need for Canadian energy imports, making it easier for Trump to argue that imposing tariffs on Canada won’t spike gas prices or otherwise hurt domestic consumers.

    Perceptions about defense also factor into Americans’ willingness to pressure Canada economically. Although 68% agree Canada contributes its fair share to NATO, when a split sample is showed the opposite claim, a full 48% simultaneously believe that Canada does not pay its way in defending North America. Among Trump voters, 62% see Canada as contributing too little, and more than half (54%) even consider Canada’s military “pretty much non-existent.” In contrast, only 36% of Harris voters think Canada’s military might be negligible. These views echo Trump’s longstanding criticism of allies for insufficient defense spending, fueling a sense that Canada “owes” the United States on multiple fronts—whether it’s financial or in trade concessions.

    Other views amplify the sentiment that Canada may be taking advantage. About 1 in 3 Americans believe “most Canadians want their country to become the 51st state,” (despite Trump’s claim to that effect) and 44% think “millions of illegal immigrants” enter the U.S. from Canada. Only 32% believe Trump’s claim that much of the fentanyl in the U.S. originates across the northern border, although Trump voters are more likely to (42%). Although these are significantly overstated, they have real political implications: if voters accept that Canada is lax on border control or that Canadians themselves want deeper U.S. integration, they may see no harm in raising the stakes.

    Interestingly, Saudi Arabia—which many Americans also regard as an important energy partner—elicits a more mixed response. Only about half (48%) of Americans consider Saudi Arabia a “friend,” and partisan differences are modest, suggesting Americans are split on the reliability of Saudi Arabia as an ally. By contrast, the vast majority call Canada a friendly nation. That being said, confidence that the U.S. can supply its own oil could overshadow Canadians’ potential value as a stable energy partner, at least among certain segments of the public.

    All of these beliefs—especially the idea that Canada benefits unduly from free trade and invests too little in defense—make it easier for Trump’s base to support imposing tariffs. Indeed, a voter who thinks Canada is simultaneously freeriding on security, receiving disproportionate trade advantages, and failing to secure its own border is primed to back punitive measures if Trump argues they are necessary to protect American workers and taxpayers. That the broader public generally sees Canada favourably only somewhat tempers the possibility of a trade clash: Americans can like Canadians personally yet still believe they are “free riders” in urgent need of correction.

    Nonetheless, the findings also show deep reservoirs of goodwill. Large majorities call Canada an ally, and 84% agree free trade is better for both sides overall. This underscores the complexity of public opinion: Americans can admire Canada’s closeness while endorsing trade restrictions if they suspect the United States is being shortchanged. For Canadian leaders and communicators, countering misconceptions—about energy dependence and migration while demonstrating it’s commitment to increase defence spending —may be crucial in defusing support for tariffs. By emphasizing the mutual benefits of open markets and highlighting Canada’s role in collective security, Canadians might sway those on the fence, even if more ardent Trump supporters prove harder to convince.

    American Energy Sources – Perceived and Preferred

    Digging deeper into energy, we asked Americans where they think they get most of their foreign crude oil and where they would prefer to get their oil.

    One of the most striking insights from our survey is the gap between Americans’ perceived and preferred source of foreign oil. When asked which country currently supplies the most oil and gas to the United States, a majority (53%) point to Saudi Arabia, while only 22% choose Canada. In reality, Canada is the top foreign supplier, but many Americans’ first thought is that Middle Eastern oil dominates U.S. imports. This perception highlights lingering misconceptions about North American energy flows and underscores why some Americans may not feel a strong sense of dependence on Canada.

    Yet, when Americans are asked where they would prefer the United States buy oil if imports remain necessary, the picture changes drastically. A full 52% choose Canada, far eclipsing Saudi Arabia (19%), Mexico (12%), Norway (7%), Russia (6%), and Venezuela (4%).

    This preference for Canadian oil holds across regions, and there’s little difference between voters who supported Kamala Harris (58%) and Donald Trump (51%). Even so, the overall majority in every subgroup opts for Canada as their top choice supplier. These findings suggest a contradiction: many Americans see Saudi Arabia as the current leading supplier—possibly due to high-profile media coverage or long-standing U.S.-Saudi relations—while simultaneously viewing Canada as the ideal partner going forward.

    The Possibility of 25% Tariffs on Canada

    As we wait to see what happens on February 1, the proposed 25% tariff on Canadian-made goods reveals notable divides in American public opinion—both along partisan lines and between those living in border states versus elsewhere. While our story has already illustrated Americans’ complex mix of goodwill toward Canada and suspicions of “unfair” trade, this survey shows exactly how Trump voters, Harris voters, and residents of states adjoining Canada are sorting themselves on the issue.

    Overall, 28% of Americans call the tariffs a “very good” or “good” idea, while 39% rate them “bad” or “very bad.” Yet when we break things down, partisan contrasts are stark. Among Trump voters, 44% describe the tariffs as a good or very good idea, compared to just 16% who think they are bad or very bad (the rest say “okay” or “don’t know”). By contrast, Harris voters come out heavily against the policy: only 15% back the tariffs, while 65% label them “bad” or “very bad.” This chasm reflects Trump voters’ belief that Canada gains more from trade and can better absorb the shock, whereas Harris voters—less convinced of a massive bilateral imbalance—are more concerned about economic disruption and diplomatic fallout.

    A similar pattern emerges on the question of how tariffs will affect prices and the broader U.S. economy. Nationally, 25% foresee a positive effect on their cost of living, but 45% predict a negative one. Those in border states are especially likely to anticipate higher prices: 31% there think the impact will be negative or very negative, and just 19% anticipate a positive outcome. By contrast, Trump voters—regardless of region—are more sanguine. Around 36% of them see tariffs as benefitting America’s economy, compared to only 22% of Harris voters.

    Border-state respondents, who often have direct business or personal ties across the boundary, also register more concern about the U.S.-Canada relationship deteriorating under tariffs. In these states, 44% think the tariff could have a negative effect on bilateral ties, while only 27% call it positive. Their vantage point might be shaped by potential disruptions to cross-border supply chains and local commerce. Meanwhile, in regions further from Canada, the negative ratings on U.S.-Canada ties are somewhat lower—suggesting that those communities might be less directly impacted, or at least less immediately aware of potential fallout.

    Retaliatory measures add another layer. Nearly half (47%) of Americans overall fear that Canadian counter-tariffs would harm them personally, but this concern is more pronounced in border states (where consumers and businesses may rely on Canadian goods). Among Trump voters nationwide, however, only about a third see Canadian retaliation as a serious threat; many believe the U.S. can weather whatever Canada imposes, in part due to a perception of America’s superior economic clout.

    Put together, these data illustrate both a wide partisan gap and important geographic nuances. Trump’s core voters largely back the tariff plan—some out of faith in his negotiating style, others due to the belief that Canada benefits disproportionately. Harris voters, on the other hand, mostly fear rising prices and diplomatic damage. And those closest to the border, who are often the most entwined with Canadian industries, are likelier to expect real negative consequences for everyday commerce and the broader relationship.

    All of this reinforces the central tension: while many Americans like Canada and prefer its oil and other imports, the idea of punitive tariffs still holds appeal among a significant faction—particularly Trump supporters—who believe the U.S. has long been shortchanged. Whether that sentiment prevails will depend on how clearly Americans see the on-the-ground impact, especially in border communities that stand to feel the effects first.

    Upshot

    These findings paint a portrait of an American public torn between longstanding goodwill toward Canada and the view that Canada may be getting the better end of existing trade deals. On one hand, most Americans describe Canada as an ally, and large majorities agree that free trade is mutually beneficial. Many also prefer Canadian oil over imports from other countries and acknowledge Canada’s cultural and political closeness to the United States.

    On the other hand, more than half believe Canada benefits “way more” from free trade, echoing President Trump’s narrative that tariffs are needed to level the playing field.

    The gulf between Trump and Harris voters is pronounced. Trump voters not only show higher support for a 25% tariff, but they are also less concerned about the possible negative impacts on the U.S. economy and consumer prices. Harris voters, meanwhile, strongly oppose tariffs and worry about the ripple effects on inflation, diplomatic relations, and cross-border supply chains. These partisan divergences reflect different assumptions about who truly gains from trade and whether Canada meets its defense and immigration responsibilities.

    Geography further complicates the picture. Americans in border states—who are more directly involved in commerce and travel with Canada—register deeper anxiety about the fallout from a potential trade war. They are likelier to anticipate higher prices and potential harm to local industries if tariffs escalate. This underlines the importance of these border communities: their direct exposure to cross-border trade could serve as a bellwether for how the broader American public will ultimately judge the practicality and fairness of tariffs.

    For Canadian policymakers and business leaders, the lesson is that American goodwill can coexist with a willingness to “get tough” if voters feel the United States is being taken advantage of. Countering misconceptions about energy dependence, highlighting Canada’s defense contributions, and showcasing tangible economic interdependencies—especially in border regions—will be critical. The more Canadians can demonstrate that these punitive measures undermine shared prosperity, the likelier they are to sway uncertain or moderate Americans and mitigate the worst outcomes of an escalating trade dispute. But we also have to be aware that Trump voters are captive to his rhetoric and what they think and feel is likely all he cares about.

    Methodology

    The survey was conducted with 1,500 American eligible voters from January 23 to 24, 2025.

    A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

    The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.

    The survey was weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched the U.S. population by age, gender, region, race, and education.

    This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

    Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

    ABOUT ABACUS DATA

    We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

    We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

    And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

    Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

    Contact us with any questions.

    Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

    Mark Carney is more likely to expand the Liberal Party’s voter pool than Chrystia Freeland

    With Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stepping down and a new Liberal leader set to be announced on March 9, 2025, our latest poll takes a close look at how Canadians view the three main candidates vying for his job: Mark Carney, Chrystia Freeland, and Karina Gould.

    Key Takeaway: Carney Leads in Popularity and Potential Support

    Mark Carney stands out with stronger impressions than the other two candidates. He enjoys a better overall rating among the general public—33% positive vs. 20% negative (for a net +13)—and he’s also viewed most favourably by current Liberal supporters. His positive image is one reason he could attract a larger pool of voters for the Liberals if he becomes leader.

    Chrystia Freeland is more widely known but has higher negative ratings, which drags down her net impression to about -1. Among Liberal supporters, she remains popular, though she trails Carney in terms of net favourability.

    Karina Gould is less well-known to Canadians: most haven’t formed a strong opinion about her yet, and nearly half say they don’t know enough to comment. This leaves her with lower positives than the other two.

    Among Liberal Supporters

    Among Liberal supporters, Carney leads with a +59 net impression (64% positive vs. 5% negative), Freeland follows at +44 (54% positive vs. 10% negative), and Gould sits at +22, reflecting her lower profile as many remain undecided about her.

    Voter Accessibility: More Voters Open to Carney

    We also measured the size of each candidate’s potential “accessible voter pool”—people who might consider voting Liberal if that candidate becomes leader. Carney’s numbers suggest that if he can maintain his current popularity or improve it, he could lift the Liberal Party’s accessible voter pool by up to 7 points—bringing it to 49%. This is just a few points short of where the Conservatives currently stand, making Carney the most likely to broaden Liberal appeal.

    Freeland’s boost, by comparison, would sit closer to 2 additional points, for a total of 44% accessibility.

    The Upshot

    With Trudeau’s departure, the Liberal leadership race is in full swing. Our poll indicates that Mark Carney not only tops the list in terms of net favourability among Canadians but also has the best shot at growing the Liberal vote. While Chrystia Freeland remains well-liked within the party, her negatives among the wider electorate are higher, limiting her potential reach. Karina Gould has room to build her profile but starts with less familiarity among voters.

    The leadership campaign over the next 6 weeks could change these perceptions and views, but nor now, they suggest Carney is the frontrunner if the Liberals want to expand their base and compete neck-and-neck with the Conservatives in the next election.

    Methodology

    The survey was conducted with 2,205 Canadian adults from January 22 to January 26, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

    The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.

    The survey was weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

    This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

    Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

    ABOUT ABACUS DATA

    We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

    We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

    And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

    Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

    Contact us with any questions.

    Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

    As Election Kicks Off, Ontario PCs lead by 23: Why Doug Ford is well positioned to be re-elected.

    As the Ontario provincial election is about to get started, we conducted a survey of 1,021 eligible voters in the province from January 22 to 26, 2025.

    The results indicate that the Ontario PC Party is in a solid position to be re-elected for the third time as Ford’s personal numbers and his government’s approval rating have improved since December.

    In this report, we explore the reasons for this conclusion by looking at several key indicators we will track throughout the election.

    PCs LEAD BY 9 OVER THE LIBERALS. NDP AT 22%

    If the election was held today, the PCs would likely win another majority government. Overall, among all committed eligible voters in our survey, the PCs have 47% of the vote with the Ontario Liberals at 24% and the Ontario NDP at 19%. The Ontario Greens are at 7% while other parties get 3% of the vote.

    Since December, the PC vote share is up 4, the Liberals are down 1 and the NDP is down 2.

    The PCs are ahead in every region of the province.

    WHAT EXPLAINS THE PC’S DOMINANT POSITION?

    #1 – The desire for change isn’t high or intensive enough to seriously challenge the PCs.

    Today, 48% definitely want to see a change in government while 22% definitely want to see the PC government re-elected. Everyone else is in the middle – either wanting change or keeping the government in power – but not caring too much about the outcome. Views are almost the same as they were at the start of the 2022 provincial election and similar to what we saw in Nova Scotia in November last year, a few weeks before Tim Houston and the NS PCs were easily re-elected.

    Perhaps most important,  “change voters” – those who definitely want change – are split exactly evenly between the NDP and Liberal Party in terms of vote intention with 35% of change voters saying they would vote NDP and 35% supporting the Liberals. 11% support the Greens.

    One of two things have to happen if a PC win is going to be threatened:

    (1) Change voters need to consolidate around either the Liberals or NDP. Right now neither is winning the “change” primary, or

    (2) More voters need to intensely want a change in government.

    #2 – The Top Issues Favour the PCs, but Healthcare could be a vulnerability

    Reducing the cost of living remains a top issue for more than half of Ontarians (60%). Healthcare, housing affordability, dealing with Trump’s tariffs, and growing the economy round out the top 5. 1 in 4 say reducing homelessness and poverty is one of their top three issues.

    We see some variation across the political spectrum. PC Party supporters are more likely to rank affordability, the economy, and crime as a top issue. Liberal Party supporters are more likely to rate healthcare, long-term care, and education as a top issue while NDP supporters lean into housing affordability and homelessness and poverty reduction. But in all three cases, affordability, healthcare, and housing are the top issues for Ontarians.

    #3 – Doug Ford’s personal image is stronger than the other party leaders and is in a better place than it has been for much of his time as Premier.

    Beyond the desire for change and issue ownership, Doug Ford’s personal image remains relatively strong.

    More people have a positive view of the PC leader than any of his opponents and Mr. Ford’s negatives are lower than they have been for the last two years. In fact, over the past 7 weeks, Mr. Ford’s personal image has moved above water with more viewing him favourably than unfavourably.

    One of the wildcards for the election is how unknown the opposition party leaders are.

    44% of Ontarians have a neutral impression or don’t know NDP Leader Marit Stiles. 39% have similar perspectives on Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie. Crombie starts the campaign with the lowest net favourable score of all four major party leaders.

    Beyond their images, when asked which leader would make the best Premier, Doug Ford easily wins, leading Ms Crombie by 25 points with Marit Stile a few points behind in third. .

    Is calling an early election a liability for Ford and the PCs?

    We reasked some questions we had asked back in June 2024 when there was some discussion of an early election. And the new results suggest that while there is some risk around an early election call – especially when the price tag is framed for people – it’s unlikely to cause the PCs too much trouble.

    One reason is the speed at which the news cycle moves and the possibility of tariffs being imposed on February 1 means a discussion about an early election may not last past the first few days of the campaign.

    UPSHOT

    According to David Coletto: “As the election officially gets underway, Doug Ford and the PCs are once again in the driver’s seat. Their double-digit lead over the Liberals, combined with Ford’s improved personal image, puts them on solid footing to win a third term. Comparative data from past surveys suggests the desire for change isn’t deep or widespread enough to pose a serious threat—at least not yet.

    For the PCs, the path to victory is clear: keep the spotlight on affordability (the top issue for most Ontarians) and the looming risk of Trump’s tariffs. If they can maintain control of the economic narrative and continue to project steady leadership, the arguments for change may not gain enough traction to derail them.

    Meanwhile, the opposition parties have two interlinked goals: first, they must consolidate the sizeable number of voters who definitely want a change in government while convincing more of the importance and urgency for change. Right now, those voters are split evenly between the Liberals and the NDP. To do so, they need to shift attention to the policy areas where the PCs are more vulnerable—like healthcare, education, and ethics. However, it’s worth noting that public focus on the election’s timing and cost may fade quickly, especially if Trump’s tariffs dominate the early campaign narrative.

    To break through, the Liberals and the NDP need to inspire a sharper, more intense desire for change. That could happen if either Marit Stiles or Bonnie Crombie captures the public’s attention and presents a compelling contrast to Ford. With both opposition leaders still unknown or neutral to many voters, standout debate performances or a unifying message on key issues (such as healthcare or cost of living) could be the catalyst they need.

    The election opens with the PCs in command, thanks to a combination of stronger personal numbers for Doug Ford, a low-intensity appetite for change, and solid ownership of the top issues. Still, with several weeks of campaigning ahead, the opposition’s best chance lies in rallying anti-Ford forces under a single banner and hammering home their best arguments on healthcare, education, and ethics—if they can grab Ontarians’ attention before it’s too late.”

    Join the Waiting List to Purchase the Detailed Tables for All the Questions in This Survey

    METHODOLOGY

    The survey was conducted with 1,021 eligible voters in Ontario from January 22 to 26, 2025.

    A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

    The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.

    The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

    This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

    Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

    ABOUT ABACUS DATA

    We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

    We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

    And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

    Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

    Contact us with any questions.

    Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

    Abacus Data Poll: Conservative lead drops, but Liberals still 21-points behind

    Our latest poll tracking opinions about Canadian politics was conducted from January 22 to 26, 2025 and interviewed 2,205 Canadian adults.

    Vote Intention: Conservative lead drops, but Liberals still 21-points behind

    If an election were held today, 43% of committed voters would cast a ballot for the Conservatives, 22% would vote Liberal, and 18% would support the NDP. The Bloc Québécois sits at 9% nationally, while the Greens are at 5% and the People’s Party at 3%, with no measurable support going to other parties.

    Compared to our last update, the Conservative vote share has dipped by 3 points, while Liberal support is up 2. The NDP is down 1 point, and the Greens have also inched upward by 1 point. Despite the slight decline, the Conservatives continue to hold a substantial lead—21 points ahead of the Liberals.

    Among those most certain to vote, the Conservative advantage grows: support for the Conservatives increases to 45%, the Liberals drop to 20% and the NDP gain one to 19% reflecting a 2-point boost for the Conservatives and a 3-point turnout suppression for the Liberals relative to the overall committed voter pool.

    Regionally, the Conservatives lead in every region or province except for Quebec where the BQ is well ahead of the Conservatives in second and the Liberals in third. In Ontario, 45% of adults in that province would vote Conservative (down 5 since last time), with the Liberals at 27% (+4) and the NDP at 17% (-1).

    The Conservatives continue to lead across all age groups and among men and women.

    We also see the Conservatives leading across all levels of education, though the gap narrows among those with a university degree. Among Canadians with a high school education or less, 44% would vote Conservative, 21% Liberal, and 17% NDP.

    Those with some college education or a college diploma show a similar Conservative advantage at 44%, with 19% opting for the Liberals and 20% backing the NDP.

    Among university-educated Canadians, Conservative support declines slightly to 39% (down 4), while the Liberals rise to 28% (+4) and the NDP to 18%.

    Learn about the game-changing tool from the Abacus Data team that makes it possible to estimate polling results to the riding level to improve advocacy and government relations.

    Direction of the Country

    When asked whether they feel the country is headed in the right direction or off on the wrong track, only 23% of Canadians believe things are going well, while 62% think the country is on the wrong track. These results remain near the lower end of our historical tracking, indicating a persistent sense of unease about the nation’s current direction. Despite improved vote share for the Liberals, the overall mood of the country remains quite sour.

    Canadians continue to hold predominantly negative views of Justin Trudeau. Only about one in five Canadians (around 22%) say they have a positive impression of him, while approximately 61% express a negative view. This represents a net score of around -39, a slight improvement from last wave.

    Perceptions of Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre remain divided. 40% of Canadians have a positive impression of him, the same proportion with a negative impression. We have seen no real shift in views towards Mr. Poilievre in the past few weeks.

    NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh’s image continues to be more negative than in the past. 29% hold a positive impression, while 41% say they have a negative view, giving him a net score of -12.

    Meanwhile, Canadians’ impressions of Donald Trump remain decisively negative. Six in 10 have a negative opinion of him, while 21% view him positively. President Trump’s negatives have increased 5-points over the past two months.

    Desire for Change Softens

    One of the bigger shifts we have seen in public opinion is desire for change. Although almost half of Canadians continue to say they think it’s time for a change and feel there’s an acceptable alternative (49%), that number is down 7 points since mid-December (when Chrystia Freeland resigned as Finance Minister). At the same time, those who believe the Liberals deserve to be re-elected is up 4-points to 16% – a level we regularly measured prior to Freeland’s resignation and well below the 21% high point since tracking this question in June 2023.

    Shift in Accessible Voter Pools

    Turning to each party’s accessible voter pool, 51% of Canadians would consider voting Conservative, the highest among all parties but down 4 points in two weeks. The Liberal Party’s pool stands at 42% (a 4-point increase), while the NDP pool is at 39% (down 1).

    This is the largest the accessible voter pool has been for the Liberals since the beginning of last year.

    Big Shift in Election Outcome Expectations

    The biggest change we have measured over the past two weeks comes when we ask people who they think will win the next federal election.

    Today, 53% predict a Conservative victory, down from 62% on January 14. 17% now think the Liberals will come out on top, up 7. 8% foresee an NDP win, and 22% remain unsure. This represents a shift back to expectations we measured in November and December 2024.

    The Upshot

    According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “There has been a change in opinions and intentions over the past two weeks, but that change has been small. Unlike some other polls that have been released in recent days, we continue to see the Conservatives well ahead of the Liberals but there is a shift in some key metrics that are worth noting.

    While some measures have improved for the Liberals, they mostly represent a return to the levels they were before Chrystia Freeland resigned from cabinet. We have seen no change in how Canadians feel about Pierre Poilievre, the direction of the country, or the Prime Minister.

    Mr. Trudeau’s resignation, the start of the Liberal Party’s leadership race, and Donald Trump’s inauguration has given the Liberals a boost and expanded their accessible voter pool, but we don’t see any evidence that political environment has fundamentally changed.

    We will have new numbers on the Liberal leadership race later this week. Stay tuned.”

    You can purchase the data tables for this survey here.

    Methodology

    The survey was conducted with 2,205 Canadian adults from January 22 to January 26, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

    The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.

    The survey was weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

    This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

    Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

    ABOUT ABACUS DATA

    We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

    We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

    And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

    Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

    Contact us with any questions.

    Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.