Has the Greenbelt scandal hurt the Ford PCs in Ontario?

In partnership with the Toronto Star, we conducted a survey of 1,040 Ontario adults from August 18 to 23, 2023 to explore public opinion about the Ford government and to assess whether the Greenbelt scandal has impacted public perceptions and opinions about the government and the Premier. Note, this survey was completed prior to the resignation of the Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing’s chief of staff and the news that the RCMP is looking into the matter.

Here’s what we found:

Awareness of the Auditor General’s report is widespread although less than half are following the story closely.

Overall, 83% of Ontarians are aware of the Auditor General’s report into how the provincial government handled opening up land in the Greenbelt and 39% are following it pretty or very closely.

When asked how the report makes them feel about Doug Ford and the PC government, 51% say it makes them feel worse, 13% say it makes them feel better while 37% say it had no impact on their views.

Those living in the GTHA are the most likely to say it’s made their views of Ford and his government worse. Of note, 1 in 3 of those who voted PC in 2022 say their opinions of the PC government and Doug Ford are worse as a result of the report and the news surrounding it.

The PC government’s approval rating has taken a hit.

Today, 31% approve of the job performance of Doug Ford and the provincial government while 47% disapprove. Since the end of July, those disapproving of the Ford government’s performance is up 4 points while approval is down 4 points.

Of note, those who strongly disapprove of the government is four times the number of those who strongly approve.

Views are fairly consistent across region and age group. Among 2022 PC voters, 15% disapprove of the job the government is doing while 23% of Ontario Liberal voters say they approve.

More think Doug Ford and the PC government make decisions to benefit friends and supporters today than did last month.

Last month we asked people whether they felt the decisions Doug Ford and the provincial government make are in the interests of people in the province or more in the interests of their friends and supporters.

Today, close to 6 in 10 Ontarians believe decisions are made more in the interests of Ford’s friends and supporters, up 5 points in a month. 26% feel he’s making decisions in the best interest of people living in the province (down 1) while 15% don’t know enough to say (down 4).

The widespread awareness of the issue likely accounts for the shift from “don’t know” to “helps his friends” in this case.

Despite all of this, the PCs still hold a healthy lead over the Ontario Liberals and NDP.

If an election was held at the time of the survey, the PCs would still win a majority and lead the Ontario Liberals by double digits. 38% of committed Ontarians would vote PC (down 3 from last month), 25% would vote for the Liberals and 24% would vote NDP. Note, the Liberals are currently in the middle of a leadership race so the dynamics of the ballot would likely change depending on who wins the leadership.

Regionally, the PCs are ahead in every region of the province from a 20-point lead in Southwestern Ontario to a smaller 6-point lead in the GTHA.

One reason the PC vote has head up so far is because the vast majority of its previous supporters are staying with the party. 85% of past PC supporters say they would vote PC today as would 11% of past Liberal supporters. Interestingly, 17% of past federal Liberal supporters say they would vote PC today.

The Upshot

According to David Coletto, Chair and CEO of Abacus Data:

“The awareness and the subsequent impact of the Auditor General’s report on the government’s handling of the Greenbelt indicates a pronounced skepticism towards Doug Ford and the PC government. An overwhelming majority of Ontarians are aware of the report’s content, and this has played a pivotal role in influencing the perceptions of a significant portion of the population. Specifically, over half have indicated that the report has negatively impacted their view of the Ford administration, a sentiment especially pronounced in the GTHA. It’s crucial to highlight that even among those who voted PC in the last election, a considerable 1 in 3 have seen their views soured as a consequence of the report.

The report and news about it has dented the PC government’s approval ratings and further exemplifies the public’s discontent with the current administration. A considerable segment of the population, nearly half, disapproves of their performance, a figure that has been on the rise since July. The fact that the count of those who strongly disapprove is four times those who strongly approve underscores the gravity of dissatisfaction.

However, despite the evident challenges in the realm of public perception, the PCs still maintain a considerable electoral advantage. Their lead, even in the face of controversy and skepticism, is robust and extends across various regions in Ontario. A critical factor in this sustained lead is the loyalty of the PC voter base, with a vast majority of previous supporters expressing their intention to stick with the party. The potential of the Liberals to change the dynamics of the upcoming election depends significantly on their leadership race, suggesting that while the PCs are currently ahead, the political landscape remains fluid and can be influenced by new leadership and policy proposals from opposing parties.

So far this scandal has not been devistating to perceptions of Ford or the PC government but if this issue comes under criminal investigation and continues to play out over the next weeks and months, the damage could become far more extensive to the PC Party and Ford brands. We will keep monitoring public opinion with our partners at the Toronto Star.”

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,040 adults living in Ontario adults from August 18 to 23, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian PoliticsProvincial Politics

What Canadians know about and think of Pierre Poilievre

With the Conservative Party launching a new ad campaign to profile its leader Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives holding a sizeable national lead over the Liberals, the Toronto Star and its polling partner Abacus Data, launched a project to examine how Canadians would react to the campaign and their introduction to the Conservative Party leader.

On Sunday, the Toronto Star’s Stephanie Levitiz, reported on the findings of the polling we did which was meant to set and baseline for how Canadians felt about Mr. Poilievre before the Conservative campaign was launched.

The survey was conducted from July 20 to 25, 2023 and interviewed a representative sample of 2,648 adult Canadians online. The objective of the study was to develop a set of questions we would ask in July and then again later in the year to gauge how views and perceptions about Mr. Poilievre may have changed because of the campaign and other discussions about him.

Here’s what we found Canadians know and think of Pierre Poilievre as of July 25:

About half of Canadians don’t know Pierre Poilievre that well.

Having been Conservative leader for just over 300 days at the time of this survey, Poilievre is somewhat well known but about half of Canadians say they either haven’t heard of him before or if they do, they don’t know much about him.

In contrast, almost all Canadians say they know Justin Trudeau at least pretty well and 67% feel the same way about Jagmeet Singh.

Familiarity with Poilievre is higher among older Canadians, men, those in the Prairies, and among Conservative supporters. He’s less well known among those under 30 and women.

Poilievre is more well known and more polarizing than the previous two Conservative leaders 300 days into their leadership.

Overall, 31% of Canadians have a positive impression of Poilievre compared with 37% who have a negative impression for a net impression of -6. Compared with the previous two Conservative leaders at the same time in their leadership – Erin O’Toole and Andrew Scheer – Poilievre is better known and more defined. He’s also more polarizing with a larger number of people both liking him a lot and disliking him a lot (36% very positive + very negative) vs. 24% for O’Toole and 20% for Scheer.

In comparison to other party leaders, Poilievre has about the same proportion of people who have a positive view of him as Trudeau but fewer who have a negative view. His net favourable nationally is -6.

Here are Poilievre’s net favourables among some key groups:

  • 2021 Conservative voters +59
  • 2021 Liberal voters -49
  • Men +1
  • Women -13
  • BC 0
  • Prairies +18
  • Ontario -8
  • Quebec -28
  • Atlantic -7

Among those open to voting Conservative but don’t currently support the party (Accessible Conservatives) Poilievre’s net favourable is +6.

What else do people feel about him?

Ideas vs. Personality: 27% of Canadians like Poilievre’s personality and his ideas, 10% like his ideas but dislike his personality while 6% like his personality but dislike his ideas. 30% dislike both while 27% don’t know enough about him to know.

Of note, 17% of current Conservative supporters say they like his ideas but dislike his personality.

When shown two descriptions that could be used to describe Poilievre, Canadians were more likely to consider him to be:

Genuine (35%) rather than phoney (28%)
Strong (39%) rather than weak (18%)

But people were more split when it came to whether he is

Extreme (33%) or moderate (28%)
Compassionate (31%) or uncaring (28%)
Vengeful (28%) or forgiving (19%)
Down to earth (31%) or elitist (26%)

These results highlight both the vulnerabilities and opportunities for Poilievre.

When we look specifically at those who feel they know him well, he is more likely to be seen as having positive charateristics but perceptions about him being extreme and vengeful highlight some potential problems for him and opportunities for his opponents to leverage.

Almost half of Canadians don’t really know what Poilievre and the Conservatives would do if they won the next election.

46% of Canadians say they either don’t know what Poilievre would do as Prime Minister if he wins the next election or they think they know but it’s not entirely clear. This is also true for those who voted in 2021 and accessible Conservative.

In many ways, Poilievre’s policy program isn’t well understood, which makes sense since he hasn’t released many details. But since about half of people don’t really know what Poilievre would do suggests there is an opportunity for him to clarify what he will do and for his opponents to set public expectations. This is further evidence why I think the Conservative lead in the horserace is more about the Liberals repelling voters than the Conservatives attracting them.

The Upshot

This is the first wave of a multiwave study exploring how Canadians react to Pierre Poilievre over the next six months. This wave was meant to set a baseline for us to compare over time.

What we know so far is that a sizeable portion of the electorate doesn’t have clear views on Poilievre or what we would do if elected after the next election. That being said, he better defined than the previous two Conservative leaders at this point in their respective leaderships.

Poilievre and Trudeau are about equal on positive impressions but Poilievre’s negatives are lower. But already 1 in 4 Canadians have a very negative view of him, suggesting he is and can become more polarizing.

His vulnerabilities are perceptions he is vengeful and extreme while his strengths are his perceived strength and how down to earth he feels to many people.

It matters less how people with strong partisan feelings react to Poilievre than how those who only partially pay attention to politics but typically vote will think. At this point, they don’t know the Conservative leader and so the race to define him – starting with the Conservative Party’s own campaign – begins.

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 2,486 Canadian adults from July 20 to 25, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.0%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian Politics

Back to School 2023: Are Financial Pressures Holding Our Students Back?

From August 3 to 7, 2023, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,636 adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.

In this survey, we asked 464 back-to-school shoppers about their budgets and how they are feeling as the school year approaches. Will Canadian students be fully prepared for the upcoming school year, or are financial pressures holding them back?

On average, Canadians will be spending $294 on back-to-school shopping this year. With that said, most Canadians will be shopping for one student. However, while those shopping for one child are significantly more likely to be spending less than $100 than those with multiple children, 1 in 5 of those shopping for one are still expecting to spend over $300.

When compared to last year, 1 in 3 Canadians are spending more on back-to-school necessities. This remains statistically consistent regardless of the number of children they are shopping for. With that being said, most back-to-school shoppers will be planning on spending the same amount as in previous years.

Most back-to-school shoppers will have to budget their spending this year. Over half of back-to-school shoppers (58%) will have to budget their shopping this year, with 1 in 10 shopping beyond their means in order to purchase all of the needed supplies. 5% (or approximately 1.9 million Canadians) are certain that they will not be able to afford all of the necessary supplies their child(ren) needs.

When asked to consider how different factors are impacting their back-to-school budget this year, inflation, and the cost of other essentials (such as food and housing) are seen to be having the biggest impact on their budgets. 70% of back-to-school shoppers feel the cost of other essentials is having a major impact on their budget, and 76% feel the same way about Inflation.

In order to mitigate some of these concerns, many Canadians will be taking advantage of offers and savings while back-to-school shopping.

  • 81% will be taking advantage of in-store or online discounts, promotions, and sales.
  • Over half plan on using their credit card or store points that they have earned throughout the year
  • Nearly 2 in 10 will be using pay later payment plans such as PayBright, Afterpay, Klarna, etc.

However, even with these payment options and promotions, only three-quarters of Canadians are confident that they will be able to purchase all of the materials and supplies their child(ren) needs for this upcoming school year. Of those who are not feeling confident, half are certain that they will not be able to afford everything their child(ren) needs, while the other half are still uncertain. This represents over 9 million Canadians who are not confident that they will be able to afford everything their child(ren) needs for the upcoming school year.

Upshot

With the cost of living and inflation being top-of-mind concerns for many Canadians, back-to-school shopping is more expensive than ever. And, with a number of Canadians concerned that they will not be able to afford all the supplies their child needs, many may look for assistance from back-to-school supply drives. No student should be limited by their parent’s income, especially when it comes to their education. That’s why it is more important than ever that those in more fortunate circumstances give back to their community and help ensure every child arrives on their first day of school, fully prepared for the school year ahead.

Here at Abacus Data, we have chosen to donate extra school supplies to the Start2Finish Backpack drive, which provides vital school supplies to thousands of kids who begin the school year without the proper essentials.


Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,636 Canadian adults from August 3 to 7, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.42%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/


About Abacus Data

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering. 

Consumer BehaviourInsightsNews / Media

Adopting a Climate-Friendly Lifestyle: Are Canadians Willing to Embrace a Sustainable Lifestyle?

From August 3 to 7, 2023, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,650 Canadians (18+) to assess their perceptions of sustainable living.

In this survey, we examined the actions Canadians presently engage in (or would consider taking) to help address climate change, along with the perceived obstacles linked with adopting more sustainable behaviours. The results underscore a contrast between Canadians’ inclination to tackle climate change in their personal and professional spheres and the perceived difficulties that hinder their capacity to convert this intention into action.


Personal Actions to Address Climate Change

When examining efforts taken to help address climate change, a considerable number of Canadians are actively engaging in impactful daily behaviors. Notably, 81% partake in recycling and composting, 72% practice energy-saving practices like turning off lights, 59% reduce water usage, and 57% have integrated energy-efficient appliances and LED lighting into their homes. Additionally, many Canadians expressed their readiness to support sustainable and eco-conscious initiatives: 58% would actively support businesses with such principles, while another 58% would encourage the adoption of green initiatives at work. Furthermore, 64% would embrace renewable energy sources, and 52% would consider purchasing an electric vehicle.

These findings underscore that a significant segment of Canadians have already engaged in everyday actions that contribute to addressing climate change, and moreover, they display a keen willingness to undertake more substantial personal commitments towards this cause.

Perceived Barriers to Adopting More Sustainable Practices

Despite a willingness to take significant steps toward mitigating climate change, Canadians identified multiple obstacles impeding their action. Foremost among these barriers is financial limitations, a concern shared by 53%, followed by a perceived lack of access to reasonably priced products, cited by 50%. Beyond these, challenges arise from limited awareness of sustainable lifestyle choices (30%) and time constraints (27%). Collectively, these findings underscore the need to enlighten Canadians about the accessibility and affordability of sustainable living options. Moreover, disseminating information about these products and services holds the potential to amplify awareness and, consequentially, foster greater adoption.

Perceived Affordability of a Climate-Friendly Lifestyle

As emphasized, financial constraints stand out as the primary barrier to leading a more sustainable way of life. This is starkly highlighted by the fact that 32% of Canadians are uncertain about the relative cost of a climate-friendly lifestyle, while 31% perceive adopting such a lifestyle as more expensive. In essence, these findings accentuate a lack of awareness among Canadians regarding the economic advantages tied to embracing a climate-friendly lifestyle. This situation presents organizations with a compelling opening to educate Canadians about the financial gains associated with choosing eco-friendly products and services, especially for those choices that do not require a prohibitive investment. Specifically, imparting information about the long-term financial savings potential could serve as a pivotal incentive for greater adoption.

The Upshot

According to Eddie Sheppard: In the realm of addressing climate change, many Canadians demonstrate a commendable commitment to sustainable living through a range of impactful daily behaviors as well as a willingness to embrace weightier undertakings, including supporting eco-conscious businesses, advocating for green initiatives at work, adopting renewable energy sources, and considering electric vehicles.

However, amidst this strong willingness to act, Canadians perceive significant obstacles to a greener lifestyle. Chief among these barriers are financial limitations, a concern shared by 53%. Perceived financial barriers may be holding people back, especially if there is a large up-front investment required to adopt greener approaches. In line with this, 31% perceive sustainability as a costlier path, while 32% remain uncertain about its economic implications. This knowledge gap creates an ideal opportunity for organizations to highlight the financial benefits tied to adopting eco-friendly choices.

Overall, this survey underscores a strong willingness to combat climate change, alongside perceived hurdles like financial limitations and knowledge gaps. Despite these challenges, the prevalent openness to adopting climate-friendly lifestyle choices offers a promising avenue for education and advocacy. By promoting awareness about the accessibility, affordability, and/or long-term financial benefits of sustainable living, organizations can equip Canadians with the information and confidence needed to make lifestyle decisions that drive meaningful change.


Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,650 Canadian adults from August 3 to 7, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.4%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/


About Abacus Data

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering. 

Canadian PoliticsConsumer BehaviourEnvironment & Climate ChangeInsightsNews / Media

Eddie Sheppard joins Abacus Data as Vice President, Insights

Experienced researcher Eddie Sheppard joins Abacus Data where he will help grow the firm’s consumer research practice and help lead the analysis and insights team.

“We are excited to be welcome Eddie to our team,” said Chief Executive and Chairman David Coletto. “Eddie brings his over 15 years of experience in market research to our growing team of experts and consultants.”

Eddie has built a strong reputation for delivering strategic solutions to clients through the integration of research, facilitation, and analytics. His expertise spans strategic planning, public policy, and consultation for local to international clients across sectors like government, residential development, transportation, tourism, education, and finance (among others). Prior to joining Abacus, Eddie refined his skills working with some of the largest market research firms in Canada.

He holds a PhD in Social Psychology from the University of Calgary where he also taught as an Adjunct Assistant Professor for nearly a decade. His academic background provides him with a deeper understanding of human behaviour and decision-making processes, further strengthening his ability to provide valuable insights to his clients.

Celebrating its 13th anniversary this year, Abacus Data quickly established itself as a leader in public opinion and market research. Working with some of North America’s leading brands, associations, and public sector organizations, Abacus Data helps clients make better decisions through high-quality data, insights, and strategic advice.

“Eddie will build on an already roster of highly skilled and experienced researchers,” added Coletto. “I’m excited to have him join our team and expand our consumer research practice with his breadth of experience in reputation and brand studies.”

Eddie will directly contribute to Abacus Data’s growing public affairs and consumer research practice working with partners in all three levels of government as well as public sector organizations. In addition to this, Eddie will serve as the research lead in the GTA and Southwestern Ontario, providing clients with high-quality research services from custom surveys, to qualitative research, to advanced analytics and data tracking.

“Over the years, I have watched as the team at Abacus, led by David Coletto, approached research in a way that allowed them to build compelling stories from data to highlight how Canadians truly think, feel, and behave,” said Sheppard. “I was also continuously impressed by their consistent record of accuracy in their public election polling. I firmly believe that the research conducted by Abacus is a true reflection of their quality and underscores the team’s collective strengths. The remarkable growth of Abacus and the exceptional research professionals on the team have truly impressed me.”

“My decision to join Abacus stems from my belief in the potential that it holds – a place where I can not only create a substantial impact but also play a pivotal role in helping to shape the company’s trajectory. For me, it was about being part of a vibrant and dynamic culture, where every step forward is a testament to our shared dedication and vision.”

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