For interviews, or to find out about our services, please contact Bruce Anderson at banderson@abacusdata.ca (613-882-0929) or CEO David Coletto at david@abacusdata.ca (613-232-2806)

Our latest nationwide study of political opinion looked at headline data as well as some probing about the different leaders. This release focuses on the main tracking questions, with the rest to be released in the next few days.

Voting Intention and Mood

We find a dead heat nationally with the Conservatives at 33%, the Liberals at 32% the NDP at 24%. In BC, the Conservatives have a narrow lead over the Liberals and the NDP. In Ontario, the Liberals and the Conservatives are neck and neck. In Quebec, the NDP enjoys a modest lead over the Liberals.

Not only have vote intentions tightened but so too has the expected outcome of the election. A rising number of people believe the Conservatives may win the next election, with 34% predicting a Liberal win and 33% see the Tories coming out on top. In August 2014, 39% of Canadians believed the Liberals would win compared to only 25% who thought the Conservatives would win the next election.

Along with rising anxiety about the economy, there has been a slight softening of comfort with the direction of the country, which had been rising over the preceding months. And today, 25% say the government deserves to be elected, while 36% say it deserves to be replaced, with 30% “somewhere in between”.

Leaders Impressions

In recent months we had been seeing improvement in Stephen Harper’s reputation. In the latest month’s data, that trend has paused. 34% have a positive view of the PM, while 40% are negative. For Thomas Mulcair, numbers are stable with 29% positive, and 19% negative. For Justin Trudeau, negative opinions have risen over the period from November and positive opinions have declined. He currently finds 34% positive and 31% negative.

The Upshot

According to Abacus Chairman Bruce Anderson:

The results confirm that as the country moved into an election year, the race to win the confidence of the country is tightening. The question of how Canada should participate in the fight with ISIL has been a challenging one for Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau. While his personal numbers remain better than those of the PM, his advantage has been shaved.

Mr. Harper’s competitive position improved through the last half of last year as confidence in the direction of the country rose. The latest numbers suggest that this momentum has paused, at least for the moment.

Nevertheless the overall picture continues to be largely a story of the Conservative Party looking more competitive with the Liberals. The NDP support level in Quebec remains good, but they face a continued challenge in Ontario, where they are 15 points behind the Liberals.

According to Abacus CEO David Coletto:

Over the past five months we have seen the horse race between the Liberals and Conservatives tighten even as anxiety over the economy rises and fewer Canadians feel good about the direction of the country. But more instructive has been the shift in expectations about who will win the next election. Only five months ago, the Liberals had a 13-point lead over the Conservatives. Today, the gap is all but gone.

The Conservatives have pulled even with the Liberals largely due to the party’s success at rebuilding much of the coalition that elected them in 2011. This month, 86% of those who voted Conservative in 2011 say they would vote Conservative if an election was held today. That is 6-points better than in September 2014 when the Tories trailed the Liberals by eight in our tracking. Rebuilding their majority coalition is what the next 8 months is about.

Methodology

Our survey was conducted online with 1,005 Canadians aged 18 and over from January 26 to January 28, 2015. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of Canadians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD. For more information, visit our website at http://www.abacusdata.ca/

In case you missed it, here are some of our recent releases:

Economic anxiety on the rise; Canadians want pragmatic policy making

Should carbon be priced?  Should public opinion decide pipelines?

Looks, Gender, and Ideas: Do these matter?

Political Leaders’ Choices and Voters’ Perspectives

Conservatives and Liberals end 2014 neck and neck as Harper’s personal numbers improve

Only a few months ago, roughly two thirds (64%) of Canadians surveyed said they thought the economy was in good shape. Today, that view is held by just over one in two (54%). What’s more, the number of people who fear that things will get worse has doubled from 16% in September to 34% today.

We explored how people felt about the Finance Minister’s announcement that the federal budget would be delayed: “Given recent developments in the world economy, including the decline in the price of oil, the federal government has delayed the timing of the upcoming federal budget. Do you feel the government made the right decision to take more time or made the wrong decision?”

The plurality (43%) thought delay was the right decision, while only 24% thought it was a poor decision. Only 38% of Liberal voters, and 33% of New Democratic Party voters thought it was the wrong decision. In key battlegrounds of Quebec (20% wrong decision) Ontario (28% wrong decision) and BC (25% wrong decision) the delay met with little resistance.

On whether the budget must be balanced this year, Canadians tend not to share the Prime Minister’s insistence that this happen. Only 28% say the government should do whatever it takes to make sure the budget is balanced this year, while 51% say the government should avoid taking extra measures to ensure the budget is balanced this year, as long as Canada is close to a balanced budget. Even among Conservative Party supporters, more (52%) say close is good enough, than want to see extra measures taken (35%).

The Upshot

There are clearly rising anxieties about the economy, but so far these have affected but not transformed the mood of the public. Moreover, support for the government has tended to be increasing during this period of rising uncertainty.

The pragmatic nature of public opinion is clearly evident in these numbers. People are not preoccupied with the timing of the budget, or the exact timing of a return to surplus budgets. In choosing flexibility on budget timing, the Conservatives enjoy public support. If extensive cuts are announced to meet an arbitrary promise to balance the budget this year, Canadians may feel this is a choice made for political rather than economic reasons.

Methodology

Our survey was conducted online with 1,005 Canadians aged 18 and over from January 26 to January 28, 2015. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of Canadians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD. For more information, visit our website at http://www.abacusdata.ca/

Download the PDF with detailed tables: PDF

In case you missed it, here are some of our recent releases:

Should carbon be priced?  Should public opinion decide pipelines?

Looks, Gender, and Ideas: Do these matter?

Political Leaders’ Choices and Voters’ Perspectives

Conservatives and Liberals end 2014 neck and neck as Harper’s personal numbers improve

Jane and Perry

We prevailed upon two people we know who share an interest in politics to allow their pictures to be used in this research experiment. Jane and Perry are of a similar age. The pictures used for the bulk of the study are below.

Willing to Consider Jane and Perry?

We began by asking whether voters would consider voting for each of them if they were running in their constituency in the next federal election. The vast majority would consider either of the two (91% for Jane and 88% for Perry).

There were few regional variations but both found more hesitant voters in Quebec, where 21% were reluctant to consider Jane and 24% were reluctant to consider Perry. Large majorities of Conservatives, Liberals and New Democrats would consider either candidate.

Among those 60 or older, 89% would consider Perry, and 91% would consider Jane, indicating no generational bias. However results did vary somewhat by gender: while women were equally likely to consider each (88% and 90%), men were more likely to consider Jane (96%) than Perry (88%)

Initial Preference between Jane and Perry?

We then asked, which one people would vote for, between Jane and Perry, if they were the only two candidates running locally. (At this point, all respondents had to base their choice on was the pictures.)

Notionally, if appearance and gender mattered not at all, the result would have been a 50/50 split. Instead, Jane would win 67% of the votes and Perry 33%.

• Across the country, Jane’s support was never below 62% support, but her high water marks were 69% in Atlantic Canada and 75% in Quebec.

• Jane comfortably carried all age groups and did best among the youngest voters (71%) and least well among those 60+ (64%).

• Jane won both genders, but her margin among women was significantly larger than among men (men 60%-40% , women 74%-26%).

• Jane won among supporters of all three major parties, but her margin was largest among New Democrats (74%) and narrowest among Conservatives (58%).

• Along the same lines Perry found more support among those who felt the country was going in the right direction (39%) and that the government deserved re-election (43%)

What might be inferred from these numbers is:

• Both gender and physical images have the potential to significantly affect how voters size up candidates, absent any other information.

• Past tendencies to favour male over female candidates regardless of qualifications may be in the process of being replaced by a tendency to favour female candidates over males.

To more clearly understand the role of image versus gender, near the end of the survey, we substituted a different picture for Perry. While the sample exposed to the second picture was relatively small (N=136) his support level was 7 points higher with the second picture compared to the first. This tends to support the idea that both gender and appearance contributed to the wide margin favouring Jane, not gender alone.

Impressions of Jane and Perry

We then asked respondents to tell us a bit about what they saw in each of the two hypothetical candidates. The results again illustrate the degree to which visual impressions and gender both can influence thinking.

• On all 10 items tested, Jane came out on top.
• Jane was widely judged better for those in need (80%) and the environment (76%)
• Jane’s margin was narrow when it came to handling a crisis (54%), and the economy (52%)
• Jane was credited with better judgment (66%) and an ability to get things done (65%)
• Jane was also seen as more careful with taxpayers money (70%)
• 70% said that Jane’s values seemed closer to their own

These results suggest gender stereotypes continue to flourish: including the idea that women are more compassionate and concerned about the environment. While expectations of Jane are less lofty in terms of managing a crisis and handling the economy, she is competitive with Perry on those items.

One interpretation is that women are no longer automatically considered inferior on any items. Another interpretation is that there is a yawning 28-point gap between the things that are assumed to be Jane’s greatest and lesser strengths. And still a third interpretation is that men are now automatically considered inferior in many regards, including frugality, judgment and the ability to get things done.

Worth noting is that both men and women are capable of adopting the same stereotyping. As noted in the chart below, while 81% of women said Jane was best at caring for people in need, only 56% of women said she was best at ideas for the economy. The effect is exaggerated among men, but sizeable among women without question.

Do Their Ideas Matter?

As a final test we wanted to see how things might change if we attached a platform to each of the two hypothetical candidates. So for the purposes of the experiment we created two 3-point platforms, one of which was tilted conservative (tax cuts, safe communities, expanded trade), the other progressive/liberal approach (affordable childcare, environmental protection, help for the middle class).

We randomized the assignment of each platform so that half the sample was shown Jane with the left platform the other half with the right platform, and the same was true for Perry of course. We then asked “knowing this about their platform, how would you vote?”

The results:

• Introducing competing idea sets reduced the gap between Jane and Perry by about 10 points
• Jane still won by just over 10 points regardless of which platform she “embraced”

So, on the one hand, these results point up the fact that platforms matter, in overcoming biases and preconceptions, and in winning support. And, on the other hand, the results also suggest that platform is but one factor, and not necessarily always a deciding factor at that, when it comes to how voters might size up a candidate.

Conclusions?

Over the months ahead, we will do additional experiments designed to shed light into the things that voters react to, using online research technologies to furnish deeper insight that can be gleaned through phone surveys.

Our goal is to foster a discussion, by sharing basic information, and encouraging people to form their own interpretations. From our standpoint, these results tell us that visual images play an important role in how people relate to candidates, something that may be growing more important given the ubiquity and speed with which visual images are shared today. As well, the results suggest that gender stereotyping is very much alive, but may be adopting different forms today than would have been the case in past decades.

Methodology

Our survey was conducted online with 1,438 Canadians aged 18 and over from December 18 to 20, 2014. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of Canadians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD. For more information, visit our website at http://www.abacusdata.ca/

For interviews, quotes, or to find out about our services, please contact Chairman Bruce Anderson at banderson@abacusdata.ca (613-882-0929) or CEO David Coletto at david@abacusdata.ca (613-232-2806)

• Stephen Harper has been firmly critical of Russian President Vladimir Putin over the course of the year. This has proven politically popular, as 61% approve of his actions, compared to 18% who disapprove. Support for his stance cuts across party lines, including 58% of Liberal and NDP voters and 59% of BQ voters.

• Fewer are comfortable that the Prime Minister has not introduced a tax to reduce carbon emissions: 37% approve of this choice and 41% disapprove. In Alberta, more approve (41%) than disapprove (36%) but the narrow split, in a province where Conservatives poll above 50% signals pressure to act exists within that province too. Nationally, among Conservative voters, 25% disapprove of the PM’s resistance to a carbon tax.

• The Prime Minister has chosen not to meet with Ontario’s Premier, Kathleen Wynne. Only 17% approve of this choice, while 51% disapprove. In Ontario, 23% approve, and 57% disapprove. Among Conservative voters, more disapprove (37%) than approve (32%).

• Thomas Mulcair’s proposal for a national childcare program found broad approval (50%) and only 27% disapproval. The idea resonates particularly strongly among those under 45 and more so among women than men. It finds majority approval among supporters of the Liberal, NDP, Green and BQ parties, and broad disapproval among Conservative Party supporters.

• The NDP leader has voiced strong objections to both proposed pipeline projects to move oil to the west coast of BC (*in the case of the Trans Mountain project, he has said that he would not approve the project based on concerns about the existing review process).  If voters interpret this as opposition to both projects, 31% would approve of this position while 42% disapprove. In BC, 35% approve and 44% disapprove. Disapproval is the norm in the rest of the country, except in Quebec, where 42% approve and 29% disapprove of the NDP position. Among NDP voters, 37% would disapprove of opposition to both pipelines.

• 45% approve of the way Justin Trudeau handled allegations against two of his caucus members, while 25% disapproved. Among women, 41% approved and 21% disapproved. The NDP has been harshly critical of Mr. Trudeau’s actions, but among NDP (2011) voters, 52% approved and 22% disapproved of how the Liberal leader handled this matter.

• Justin Trudeau also removed Liberal Senators from his caucus, a choice met with 51% approval and 18% disapproval. Majorities of Conservative and NDP voters approved of the Liberal leader’s action. Among Liberals 60% approved and 18% disapproved.

According to Abacus Chairman Bruce Anderson:

The pattern of these responses reveals a fair bit about how Canadians have been sizing up these three leaders. For the most part, voters are inclined to think Justin Trudeau’s choices in terms of handling issues is well intentioned and in the right direction.

Where the PM is concerned, a heavier focus on global issues has been politically useful for him. At the same time, his position on pricing or taxing carbon emissions may be becoming more of a political burden than advantage. Finally, his avoidance of a meeting with the Ontario Premier is a losing choice politically – voters likely see it as petty or partisan in nature.

For NDP leader Mulcair the numbers reveal a perpetual tension for his party. As a champion of national childcare, the NDP leader has a broad and supportive audience among Canadian voters. But his party’s pool of potential supporters narrows (from over 50% saying they would consider voting NDP) if he adopts positions on economic matters that can seem risky to many voters, such as opposing pipelines to enable more exports of Canadian energy.

Methodology

Our survey was conducted online with 1,438 Canadians aged 18 and over from December 18 to 20, 2014. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of Canadians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD. For more information, visit our website at http://www.abacusdata.ca/