In many markets these days, generational differences in outlook and priorities are important. Over the coming months, as part of Abacus’ market leading work in understanding the role of generation in decision-making, we will highlight how four age groups compare (18 to 29, 30 to 44, 45 to 59, and 60+).

In this release, we will focus on the perspective of Millennials (aged 18 to 29) towards the upcoming election and the parties contesting it.

By combining data from our last two political studies, here is what we find about Millennials:

1. They are no more or less happy than older people with the direction of the country. 45% say country is going in the right direction, 27% wrong track.

2. In the 2011 Election, 15% of this segment say they voted Conservative, 12%, NDP and 9% Liberal. Half chose not to vote or were ineligible to. Today, the NDP (34%) is ahead of the Liberals (26%), and the Conservatives (23%). The Greens do better among Millennials than any other segment. This is the weakest age group for the Conservative Party.

3. Millenials are the most “up for grabs” voters today. 84% of Millenials indicate that their vote is not firmly decided, which is 12 points above the average for the country. Half of Millennials say they have only a slight leaning or don’t really know which party they will vote for yet – 13 points above average.

4. A total of 84% say it would be good to change governments, which is higher than any other age group. While a good proportion of those don’t feel all that strongly about it, as of now, only 16% think it best if the Conservatives are returned. Among those aged 60+, that number is 40%.

5. Millennials are more likely than any age group to say they will vote for the party that best represents their values and interests rather than the leader that would do the best job.

6. Millennials are not much different from other voters in terms of how they see the health of the Canadian economy. If anything, they show a bit more confidence and optimism.

7. When it comes to the issues they care about, Millennials tend to be less preoccupied than older voters with accountability, the deficit, retirement incomes, and health care. They are more interested in jobs, education and the environment.

8. All major parties can win sizeable proportions of the Millennial vote. They are no less likely than others to consider voting CPC: 44% compared to the national average which is 45%. But they are more open to voting for the LPC (61%, 8 points above the national average) the NDP 66% (6 points above the national average) and the Green Party (44%, 13 points above average). One in five Millennials say they would consider all parties, which is 8 points higher than the national average.

The Upshot?

Millennials are pro-change and more open to progressive parties, compared to older voters. At the same time, their views towards the incumbents are not particularly hostile, and they feel relatively good about the economy and the direction of the country. and more indifference. In terms of the agenda that is most interesting to Millennials, there is a marked difference from older age groups, reflecting different lifecycle priorities. They also indicate a greater inclination to vote their interests rather than choose a leader for Canada.

Winning enthusiastic support from this segment of voters will require a clear and compelling focus on the issues and values that matter most to them, including education, jobs and the environment.

Methodology

The surveys cited n this report were conducted at the end of May and in early July.

July Survey
Our survey was conducted online with 2,000 Canadians aged 18 and over from July 3 to 6, 2015. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of Canadians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

May Survey
Our survey was conducted online with 1,500 Canadians aged 18 and over from May 28 to May 31, 2015. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of Canadians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data Inc.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD.

Abacus Data is also a leader in understanding the impact of generational change on businesses and associations.  It runs the website www.CanadianMillennials.ca, home to original research and insights from the team at Abacus.

Economic evaluations remain more positive than negative

Feelings about the economy are mixed news for all of Canada’s major political parties right now.  57% say the economy is good/very good, 43% rate it as poor/very poor.

For the Conservatives, it is better that a majority see the economy as fairly healthy, but a challenge to realize that many people who support other parties do so despite feeling the economy is in good shape: 49% of NDP voters, and 56% of Liberal voters give the economy a good rating.  Clearly, many think a healthy economy is not a function of Conservative policy, or would be no worse under a different administration.

Would a different government do better or worse?

We asked if an NDP or Liberal government would make things better or worse across 7 issues:

→ Fears of what would happen if the Liberals or NDP won are limited right now. Fewer than a third of voters think a change in government would make things worse on any of 7 issues.

→ When it comes to economic growth, 30% say the NDP would make things better, 25% say the NDP would make things worse, and 49% say things would be no different. The numbers for the Liberals are similar. 28% say a Liberal government would mean a stronger economy, 25% weaker, and 47% no different.

→ On job creation, 36% say the NDP would make things better, 31% say the Liberals would. Just 20% say things would be worse under either a Liberal or an NDP government.

→ On infrastructure, only 14% think an NDP government would be worse, 37% better. Only 17% think a Liberal government would be worse, 30% better.

→ On the environment, 34% say the Liberals would make things better, only 17% said it would be worse. For the NDP, 44% say things would be better, 12% worse.

→ On keeping Canada safe from terrorism, only 20% think an NDP government would make things worse, only 23% think that about the Liberals.

→ When it comes to Canada’s standing in the world, 31% say a Liberal government would make things better, only 21% worse. For the NDP the numbers are almost identical, 29% better, 21% worse.

→ On taxes, 32% say the Liberals would make things worse, 26% say the NDP would make things worse. Of the 7 items tested, this is the topic that most works in favour of the incumbents.

Among those who voted Conservative in 2011, fear about a Liberal or NDP government are smaller than might be expected.  Only about half think the economy would worsen, only a little over a third think a change would be bad for job creation.

The Upshot?

The Conservatives have labored to persuade voters that a change in government would weaken Canada’s economy, cost jobs, lower Canada’s standing in the world and increase the danger of terror attacks.

These numbers suggest that much of this effort has been ignored or discounted by voters.  The number of people who believe a change in government would make things worse is generally lower than the number of people who intend to vote Conservative. The only argument that gets close to the level of agreement that could help produce a Conservative win is about taxes.

Currently, interest in change is high, in part because the fear of its consequences is quite limited.  A key question is this: if people haven’t come to fear change yet, can they be convinced to? If not, a new approach will be needed by the incumbents.

Methodology

Our survey was conducted online with 2,000 Canadians aged 18 and over from July 3 to 6, 2015. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of Canadians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys.   The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.  The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data Inc.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value added insight.  Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD.

NDP by a nose

Our latest horserace “who would you vote for tomorrow” question has the NDP, at 32% followed by the Conservatives at 29 and the Liberals at 27%. Since February, the NDP have picked up 11 points while the Liberals have lost 7 and the Conservatives have shed 6.

In the three biggest seat markets, the NDP is the story to watch. In Ontario, the NDP is neck and neck with the other major parties and have substantial leads in Quebec and BC.

The NDP is currently competitive among segments of the population where they have lagged in the past, including among men, older voters, and homeowners.

77% Prefer a Change in Government

In this wave, 77% say they would prefer to see a change, although not all of these people feel strongly about the need for change. Among those who most want to see change, 44% would vote NDP and 34% would vote Liberal.

Only 14% are sure they want the Conservatives to win another term, and another 9% feel mildly this way. To win, therefore, the Conservatives need to win a bigger share of the 24% who mildly prefer change.

Who could beat the Conservatives? A split decision

Among those who want change, four in ten believe that the Liberals have “the best chance to defeat the Conservatives nationally”, while the NDP is a close second with 37%. Belief in Liberal chances is highest in Atlantic Canada (52%) and Ontario (48%), while Quebec (44%) respondents believe the NDP has a better chance to defeat the Tories. BC is split for Liberals (38%) and NDP (41%).

Only 28% know how they will vote.

Just 28% say “I know how I will vote and that won’t change” up 3 points since our last survey, another 38% have “a fairly good idea, but that could change”, up 4 points. The Conservatives have the support of 34% of those who’ve made a have a firm decision, and 23% of the “fairly good idea” group.

Together, among committed voters, this would provide the incumbents with 31% in total among these two segments, compared to 32% for the NDP and 27% for the Liberals.

NDP & Liberal pools grow, CPC pool steady but smaller

In the last month, we see continued growth (+6) in those who would consider voting NDP, giving the party the largest potential voter pool at 62%, followed by the Liberals at 55% who are also up from last month (+4) and the Conservatives at 45%.

What outcome do Canadians predict?

The NDP’s rise in support is mirrored in expectations about who will win the next election. Today 26% think the Conservatives will win, 24% say the Liberals will win and 22% say the NDP (up 15 points over the last quarter).

The Upshot?

The political competition we are seeing today is unprecedented. Five points separate the three main parties and the NDP is in the lead; last September the gap was 15 points, and the NDP was third.

While recent trends have been challenging for the Liberals, these numbers are just as sobering for Conservatives. A lot of voters are inclined to want change, and there is little evident fear of the prospect of the NDP forming a government.

To win a fourth straight election, the Conservatives will have to present their own, compelling version of what they would do next, or make change seem more risky, or both. But relying on historic hesitation about the NDP, or the ability to diminish leadership opponents, has shows little promise as a re-election strategy, and simply may not work in 2015.

Given these competitive dynamics, it is clear that all the parties will be revising their approaches, constantly, over the next 100 days. Predictions of the overall outcome, let alone seat projections, are in these circumstances little more than amusing guesswork.

Methodology

Our survey was conducted online with 2,000 Canadians aged 18 and over from July 3 to 6, 2015. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of Canadians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data Inc.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD. For more information, visit our website at http://www.abacusdata.ca/

We asked 1,500 Canadians at the end of May to tell us about where they live. Here are the highlights:

16% think their community is the “best place in the world to live”. Comparing Canada’s three biggest cities, 30% in Vancouver think they live in the best place in the world, 21% in Montreal, while 12% of GTA respondents feel this way.

21% think they live “one of the best places in Canada”, and 40% said they lived in a “better than average” place.  Just one in five think they live in an “average” place, and only 3% said “not a particularly good place.”

When asked what they like most about where they live, 87% said “quality of life” compared to 13% who said it was “economic conditions”.  When asked what they would most like to see improved, most said economic conditions (65%) – logical given the current high level of satisfaction with the quality of life.

When asked what they would most like to see improved, the majority said economic conditions (65%) – presumably because of their current high level of satisfaction with the quality of life where they live.

We tested five possible local priorities and asked respondents to pick the most important one.  40% put a focus on the economy, 23% said improving roads and transit, 19% easing hardship, 9% safety/crime reduction and 9% improving the environment.

There were important subgroup differences in priority setting.  In Atlantic Canada, there was a much greater importance attached to improving economic conditions.  Crime and safety issues were more important in western Canada.  Transit and roads were more crucial in urban areas. Easing hardship was a much higher priority among households with the lowest incomes. The environment is given a little more prominence in urban areas and in Quebec.  Conservative voters put more emphasis on the economy and crime and less on easing hardship.  Green party voters put less emphasis on roads and transit and more on the environment.

The Upshot?

Famously, US House of Representatives Speaker Tip O’Neill is quoted as saying “all politics is local”.  Here in Canada, quality of life in local communities is a crucial undercurrent in national politics – it is where people experience a healthy or weak economy, and where they consume public services like health and education.

Three out of four people feel they live in a pretty good place and almost half think they live in one of the best places in the country or in the world.  People see quality of life as the best thing about their community, and a healthy economy as a pre-requisite of a satisfying local quality of life.

Political parties and candidates will experience different voter priorities in different regions this fall.  The economy will be a fixation for many people, but not equally across the country.  In congested urban areas, improving infrastructure matters a lot.  Easing hardship finds a bigger market than fighting crime, in every place but the Prairies. The environment finds roughly 1 in 10 people who put it at the top of the priority list.

Abacus Chairman Bruce Anderson quote:

“The most successful politicians know well that Tip O’Neill had it right – that while parties must have key national themes, local candidates must be armed with solutions to local priorities: everything from job creation, to transit, poverty, crime and the environment.

People experience “the economy” where they live, and less as a function of macro economic news.  Equally, fiscal balances, tax levels, social spending and economic stimuli are policy ideas evaluated through the lens of what impact they might have, if any, on local conditions.

Voters are drawn to politicians who are dialed in on what makes life great or not so great, in their community. In this unusually competitive election, national leaders may find themselves wanting to spend more time than usual talking up local solutions and making sure their national agendas sound relevant locally. And there’s a remember in these numbers that for most people, a strong economy is more “means” than “end” – and that the outcome people care most about is a more broadly defined good quality of life.”

Methodology

Our survey was conducted online with 1,500 Canadians aged 18 and over from May 28 to May 31, 2015. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of Canadians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Sample Composition

Abacus Data Inc.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD. For more information, visit our website at http://www.abacusdata.ca/

According to a new VOCM-Abacus Data random telephone survey of 722 eligible voters in Newfoundland and Labrador conducted from June 17 to 21, 2015, the federal Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau continues to hold a big lead in Newfoundland and Labrador.

The Liberals have the support of 53% of committed voters (down 5 since March) compared with 28% for the NDP (up 12 since March) and 15% for the Conservative Party (down 8 since March).

Among all eligible voters, 14% are undecided, down 2 since March.

Regionally, the Liberals lead by a wide margin in all parts of the province except for around St. John’s and the Avalon Peninsula where the Liberals and NDP are statistically tied (LPC 42% vs. NDP 37%).

In 2011, the total vote split in the three ridings in St. John’s/Avalon Peninsula was: NDP 46%, CPC 28%, LPC 25%.  Based on the margin of error, the vote range for each party in the region is:

Liberal: Low 37%, Mid 42%, High 49%
NDP: Low 30%, Mid 37%, High 43%
CPC: Low 12%, Mid 17%, High 22%

There’s also an 80% chance that the Liberals are leading the NDP in the Avalon/St. John’s region.

This analysis indicates that the Liberal vote is likely up significantly since 2011 in the region, the Tory and NDP vote is likely down.

Leadership Impressions

Despite trailing the Liberals by 25-points province wide, NDP Tom Mulcair has the most positive impression among eligible voters.

Overall, 43% have a positive impression of Mr. Mulcair (up 15 points since March) compared with 14% who have a negative impression of him (+29 score).  Mr. Trudeau’s personal numbers have held fairly steady since March with 43% viewing him favourably and 21% have an unfavourably impression of the Liberal leader (+22 net score).

Most eligible voters in NL continue to have a negative impression of Prime Minister Harper (69%) and only 14% view him positively (-55 net score).

Who will win the next election?

When asked who will win the next federal election, 46% of eligible voters picked the Liberal Party while 21% picked the Conservative Party.   Nearly tied with the Conservative Party, 18% selected the NDP to win, while 15% were unsure.

In March, only 2% of eligible voters believed the NDP would win the next federal election.  Today, 18% believe the NDP is likely to win.  Expectations of a Liberal win are down 5 points while expectations of a Conservative win are down 9 points.

Methodology

The random live-interview telephone survey commissioned by VOCM was conducted with 722 eligible voters living in Newfoundland and Labrador.  The survey was completed from June 17 to 21, 2015. The margin of error for a probability-based random sample of 500 respondents using a probability sample is +/- 3.7%, 19 times out of 20.

The data was statistically weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched population of Newfoundland and Labrador.  The tables within this report detail the weighted and unweighted counts for the sample.

Note the small sample sizes when reviewing results in subgroups.

For more information about the poll’s methodology or the results, please contact David Coletto, CEO at david@abacusdata.ca or at 613-232-2806.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA:

Abacus Data is an innovative, fast growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research based advice to our clients.  We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value

Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD. For more information, visit our website at http://www.abacusdata.ca/