As we reflect on millennials over the past year, I think it only makes sense to share some of the reflections we collected from Millennials in our latest Canadian Millennials Report this June. One of the most repeated hallmarks of this generation is how technology has been engrained in their daily lives. Many articles have been written about what this all means for the millennial generation and what it means for those that interact with them, but we wanted to learn more about when exactly the millennial adoption of technology began.
In the latest Report we asked millennials when they remember regularly using a variety of technology, including tablets, smartphones, laptops and desktop computers.
The results are not surprising. Instead, they confirm the general assumptions we have had about the millennial generation: their coming of age experience was influenced by technology, especially the younger millennials.
For instance, the average age millennials remember using a computer was just twelve years old, even among older Millennials. Before our generation was learning the responsibilities of first jobs, and taking babysitting courses, we were learning skills and strategy of Pong and the Oregon Trail. For younger millennials, they just barely reached double-digits before they were frequently using a desktop computer.
There is a wider gap in age of adoption of things like laptops and smartphones. Those over 25 started using a laptop regularly when they were 17, and a smartphone when they were 19. For those under 25, they were 13 when they started regularly using a laptop, and 14 for smartphones.
Of course, some of these differences are due to the release dates for some of these technologies. For example, the more mainstream smartphones, like the iPhone, really took off in 2007-2008, so it only makes sense for there to be differences between those over and under 25.
Tablets are a bit of a different story. The average age for regular use was 19 years old. Those over 25 are slightly over the average, at 21 years old, and those under 25 were using tablets regularly before their sweet sixteen. Regular use for them started at 15 years old.
Perhaps the most interesting part of this is that this research confirms not only that millennials adopted these technologies at a young age, but that they have clear memories of using these technologies at a young age. Technology was a big part of how they learned about the world, with Google searches instead of library encyclopaedias, and email instead of snail mail.
And the adoption of these technologies meant more independence for the millennial generation, but in some regards, it also meant more attachment. Millennials could surf the internet and it’s wealth of information all on their own, but we were also only a phone call, or FaceTime call away from our parents.
At Abacus we strive to understand the nuances of generational change and how it impacts you and your business. The Canadian Millennials Report is the largest syndicated study of millennials in Canada. We survey 2,000 millennials twice a year on a range of topics including politics, social values, and consumer trends. If you are interested in learning more about this generation, reach out to us and we would be happy to connect.
Millennials. It is a term that we hear a lot online, and in the news, and around the office here at Abacus Data. According to Forbes, the word ‘millennial’ was first used to describe this generation in 1991. In the book titled, ‘Generations’, historians Neil Howe and William Straus discussed “generational personalities”, where people born within the same range of years would likely have similar traits, even if they had never met. One of these generational personalities was millennials.
The use of the term didn’t really gain popularity in literature until the turn of the century, with the use of the term at its highest in 2000. It was then that the term was widely recognized by academics as the word to describe this generation.
Even still, the word didn’t really gain mainstream popularity until much later. According to Google Trends data, the use of the term really took off in Canada in 2015, as Google searches for the word sky-rocketed. Google trends compares search interest relative to the highest point on the chart/time period selected. A value of 100 means peak popularity for the given time period.
As some might say, the rest is history. The day this article was written a Google News search for the term ‘millennial’ returned 24.2 million results. The term is everywhere. Among the top searches today, “12 hottest housing markets for millennial homebuyers” and “Millennials strike again: This time we’re killing cash and ‘Merry Christmas’.
Looking at another interesting tool, sentiment viz, we are able to look further at the conversation about millennials. Sentiment viz gathers Tweets from the past hour that contain your keyword and organizes them on a sentiment map using their sentiment dictionary, and AI. A search of the term millennial brings mainly positive sentiment, and a lot of words relating to money or the holidays.
Looking closer at the most recent search history of the term on Google Trends, it seems to be averaging out since its surge in popularity in 2015.
The term still experiences fluctuations but it seems to have leveled out, and it appears the term is here to stay. The millennial generation is not as new as it once was. Most of us have graduated high school and have moved into adulthood and into the workforce. But this does not mean that this generation is any less important. As the group moves into the workforce, and begins to do adult things like home buying, having children, and saving for retirement, we have no doubt that watching this generation will be more important than ever.
At Abacus we strive to understand the nuances of generational change and how it impacts you and your business. The Canadian Millennials Report is the largest syndicated study of millennials in Canada. We survey 2,000 millennials twice a year on a range of topics including politics, social values, and consumer trends. If you are interested in learning more about this generation, reach out to us and we would be happy to connect.
To kick off our millennial year in review we start by looking at the subject of our discussion: the millennials. Most of our regular readers you will know that millennials are a generational cohort born between the years of 1980 and 2000. In Canada, millennials make up just a little over a quarter of the population (27%) and approximately 40% of the working population (15-65 years old) as of the last census.
Millennials are both more highly educated and ethnically diverse than previous generations. 68% of millennials have a post-secondary education and many of those who do not are on their way to finishing one. One in four Canadian millennials are from non-western European ancestry and by 2036, 1 of every 2 Canadians could come from non-western European heritage. Millennials are at the forefront of the change that has been ushered in by globalization and technological innovation. A generation ago, social science degrees were the goût de jour of most university-goers; now STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math), computer science/IT, and the skilled trades have taken a lead over most other disciplines. This shift in degree preference is preparing millennials for the in-demand skill required by the workforce of both today and tomorrow.
Millennials do have their struggles. They persistently make under the national median income of $70,000 per year; in fact, most millennials make under $50,000 a year. Millennials also tend to be under-employed when compared to the rest of the population with their unemployment rate remaining stubbornly 2-3 points above the national average. Affordable housing is another issue for millennials. When asked for the priority that is at the top of their list for the federal government to address, affordable housing is the resounding answer. New detached houses cost more than twice as much as they did when boomers were buying their first homes. A home costing $210,000 in 1977 would cost around $490,000 today (all in 2016 dollars). Wages have increased only modestly since the Great Recession in 2008 and still haven’t recovered from their peak in 1977 while cost of living continues to outpace earnings. This has resulted in higher household debt which has risen to twice the level it was a generation ago, now sitting around 170% of household income, meaning Canadians pay $1.70 in debt for each dollar they earn.
Despite what some pundits suggest, millennials are logical creatures; and to defer some of these costs nearly a third of all millennials are choosing to live with their parents and save. This might be unimaginable for some boomers who would rather go on the dole than go back home to their mom and dad, but millennials are used to being supported by their parents. This nurturing or “helicopter parenting” as it has been known to be called, has shaped how millennials perceive their world.
In school and in their extra-curricular activities, they were raised to believe that there are no “losers” and no penalty for not obtaining the goal. They learned that participation alone is deserving of reward and recognition. This has evolved into a social consciousness that shapes their approach to their work and informs their entrepreneurial spirit. They want to ensure that all people have access to the same “privilege” they had when growing up and in their employment. Fairness, equality, and merit are all things that millennials have learned to value highly and seek to export that experience to the world.
Millennials perceive most aspects of their life through this egalitarian lens. 54% of millennials believe that Canada would be better off if governed under a more socialist system and 36% of millennials identify as being left-of-centre politically. Comparatively, 42% politically identify as being centrist while 22% identify as right-leaning conservatives. 91% of millennials believe that stopping climate change is a moral responsibility and many would not vote for a party that did not have an action plan to address climate change.
Finally, there is the technological side of the millennial generation. Millennials were born with digital technology. While older millennials can remember the days before the internet, for most, it has been a ubiquitous part of their lives. Cellphones, video games, and computers are second nature to millennials, most having received their first desktop at the age of 12, laptop at 16, and smartphone at 18. The effects of this communications change have been well-document and blamed for the decline of newspapers, political debate, and even some dictators (see Arab Spring). Yes, millennials ‘get’ technology and it’s a good thing too. As new technological innovation changes the world around us, it’s good that the leaders and innovators of tomorrow have a grasp on it.
In sum, millennials are the 18 to 30-somethings you interact with every day. They don’t make as much as most Canadians, and many are still looking for a fulfilling job. They’re well educated, empathetic, and want to improve the world around them both socially and environmentally. They lean to the left and currently are embracing the disruption technological innovation is providing. In many ways, they are like the generations that came before but are distinctively different in many others. Their connectivity and search for social justice are probably what will become to define them, but this is still a very young generation and the history books have yet to be written. So who are the millennials? That is still to be seen, only time will tell what they will do with the uncertain world set before them.
At Abacus we strive to understand the nuances of generational change and how it impacts you and your business. The Canadian Millennials Report is the largest syndicated study of millennials in Canada. We survey 2,000 millennials twice a year on a range of topics including politics, social values, and consumer trends. If you are interested in learning more about this generation, reach out to us and we would be happy to connect.
How people think about political leaders has to do with a lot of factors, well beyond their policy positions. Voters develop a sense of what kind of person they are, whether they can be trusted in different ways.
• On 9 of 10 items tested, more people would trust Justin Trudeau than either of the other two leaders. The widest gaps were on trust to babysit your kids, choose the best movie to watch, prefer to have over for family dinner, give your kids career advice. Mr. Trudeau trailed Andrew Scheer on one item: which leader would make the best CEO of a large company.
• Mr. Scheer was top pick in terms of making the best large company CEO and was tied with Mr. Trudeau for “prefer to negotiate a contract on your behalf”. His weakest results were on “cook the best meal” and “most likely to lend you $100 if you needed it”.
• Jagmeet Singh was third on all but two items: “most likely to lend you $100” and “cook the best meal”.
As expected, those who identify with a party (Liberal, Conservative, New Democrat) tend to think most positively about their leader. Liberal partisans are pretty aligned with Mr. Trudeau on all items, but 28% of them think Mr. Scheer would make a better CEO, and over one in five think Mr. Singh would cook a better meal.
Conservative partisans show less attachment to their leader across the board, especially visible on “babysit your kids”, “choose the best movie”, “lend you $100” and “cook the best meal”.
For Mr. Singh and his own NDP partisans, there’s much less alignment than with the other party leaders and their partisans. Only on two items does Mr. Singh get a majority of NDP partisans selecting him – “lend you $100” and “cook the best meal”. On others, he either ties or trails Mr. Trudeau including on “choose the best movie”, “make the best CEO of a large company”, and “prefer to babysit your children”.
Finally, among those who don’t identify with any party, the results mirror the national averages. Mr. Trudeau leads on all but one measure (CEO of a large company), and had big leads over his rivals on babysitting, being a guest at dinner, choosing the best movie, and lending $100.
For comparison’s sake, below are the results from the same assessment we did around the same time before the 2015 election. A few things are worth noting:
1. Justin Trudeau’s advantages are wider on all the items tested.
2. Mr. Harper had an advantage over Mr. Trudeau on who would make the best CEO, negotiate a contract on your behalf, and give your child good career advice. Mr. Trudeau leads Mr. Scheer on two of these three measures.
3. Tom Mulcair was looking more competitive in that earlier wave before the 2015 election than Mr. Singh appears to be today.
Being better known doesn’t always mean being better liked. But 3 years into his mandate, the sense that Mr. Trudeau is a knowledgeable person, a good companion over a meal and someone with good ideas about your children’s future continue to represent advantages for him over his main opponents.
In the run-up to the last election, Mr. Harper also had advantages on best company CEO, and negotiate a contract on your behalf. While the coming year may be different, those advantages did not turn out to be deciding factors in the outcome of the 2015 vote.”
According to David Coletto: “This remains one of my favourite and most illuminating research exercises because it gives us a glimpse into how Canadians think about what kind of person each party leader is.
These results signal a few things worth considering.
First, Mr. Trudeau’s personal image remains strong. He’s seen as caring, empathetic, generous, and in touch with the latest trends in movies and food. He’s the leader far more Canadians want to spend time with and would trust to watch their children.
Second, despite a close horserace between the Liberals and Conservatives, these results may suggest that the horserace numbers may not be fully capturing a comparative assessment of the party leaders. Right now, assessments are mainly a reaction to what the Liberal government is doing and don’t fully consider who the alternative to Mr. Trudeau as Prime Minister will be. How people feel about the leader’s personality and character will matter more the closer we get to the election and if these numbers hold, Mr. Trudeau will have a very large advantage over his rivals.
Finally, these results confirm the difficulty Mr. Singh and the NDP finds itself. Our tracking has shown that more Canadians still have a negative view of Mr. Singh than a positive one. Few have much impression of him and he’s well behind where Mr. Mulcair was about a year from the election. If Mr. Singh’s greatest potential asset is his ability to compete with Mr. Trudeau on personality, these results confirm that he hasn’t converted that potential into reality yet.”
METHODOLOGY
Our survey was conducted online with 2,000 Canadians aged 18 and over from December 13 to 18, 2018. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
Across the country, 42% approve of the performance of the Trudeau government, and 39% disapprove. Approval is down 3 points since November while disapproval is up five points. Since March 2018, the government’s approval rating has hovered between 42% and 45% with disapproval ranging from 34% to 41%.
The national numbers conceal crucial regional differences. In Alberta, disapproval runs at 57%; in most other parts of the country, it is well below 50% including in BC, Ontario, and Quebec.
The government’s performance is viewed positively by 60% of those who identify on the left of the spectrum and 39% of those in the centre. Only one in four of those on the right side of spectrum approve of the Trudeau government’s performance.
In the 78 swing ridings that were won by margins of 5% or less in the last election, approval is 41%, disapproval is 40%. In those seats, in 2015, the Liberals won 37% of the vote followed by the Conservatives at 29% and the NDP at 23%.
DETAILED ASSESSMENTS OF TRUDEAU GOVERNMENT PERFORMANCE
We asked people to describe their feelings about the performance of the government on 12 separate topics. Here’s what the results revealed:
• In all cases, a majority of respondents judged the government’s performance as either good or acceptable.
• Poor and very poor ratings ranged from a low of 28% on gender issues to highs of 43%-49% on immigration, deficits, handling tax dollars and the TMX pipeline. It is worthwhile to bear in mind that roughly 60% of this sample did not vote Liberal in 2015.
• The strongest positives for Mr. Trudeau were for representing Canada internationally, gender issues, the personal values he brings to the job, climate change policy, his dealing with Donald Trump, and his handling of NAFTA.
• Ratings for the government’s handling of the TMX pipeline reflect an unusual alignment of anti-pipe and pro-pipe voters. Poor ratings are offered by 42% of those on the left, and 55% of those on the right.
In looking to see what has changed over time, we compared results with a similar battery asked in March of 2016.
We see that Mr. Trudeau’s ratings for handling the economy have not changed all that much. His negatives on handling the deficit have inched upwards and his positive ratings have shifted down by 9 points
On all of the other items tracked back to 2016, Mr. Trudeau’s negatives have risen by 17 to 19 points.
LINKAGES WITH SOCIAL PERSPECTIVES
Examining some of the other linkages in our study reveals that disapproval of the Trudeau government is not only a function of policy evaluations but is linked to negative opinions towards the news media, gay people, people of colour, Muslims. Disapproval of the Trudeau government is higher among people who hold the following views:
• 10 points higher among those who say abortion should be against the law • 14 points higher among those who say being gay is a choice that should be discouraged • 17 points higher among those who think the news media is the enemy of the people of Canada • 19 points higher among those who “fed up with all the emphasis on promoting women’s interests”. • 24 points higher among those who think Canada would be better off if it was more white • 25 points higher among those who say Canada would be better off if there were no Muslims here
UPSHOT
According to Bruce Anderson: “Overall assessments of the Trudeau government have deteriorated from early measurements in the honeymoon months right after the election of 2015.
At the same time, in most parts of the country and on most issues, dissatisfaction levels are below 50% suggesting that a fair number of voters who didn’t vote for this government are not particularly unhappy with what they have seen.
The most challenging issues for the government are immigration, deficits, spending and it also appears that the TM pipeline issue is creating friction for the government on both the left and the right.
An interesting signal for Liberal election planners is that the government is well regarded among self-identified left of centre voters, but opinion is more mixed among the broad swath of voters who consider themselves centrists.
Finally, it is clear that some of whatever antipathy there is to Mr. Trudeau has something to do with deeper social tensions.
The Prime Minister is particularly disliked among those who would prefer a white Canada, with no Muslims, less emphasis on women’s interests, less acceptance of homosexuality. He is harshly viewed by those who would like a Canadian Trump and who see the media as the enemy of the people.
We will put out more data on these social divisions in the days to come, but it is worth noting that these views, while the minority, are held by more than a tiny fraction of the population: 27% say the media is the enemy of the people, 25% say Canada would be better off with no Muslims, 22% say Canada would be better off if it was more white, 19% say abortion should be against the law.”
According to David Coletto: The Trudeau government’s approval numbers have deteriorated in the final month of the year after seeing some improvement over the summer and into the fall months.
Negative assessments of the PM’s performance have increased most two high profile areas: climate change policy and the way the PM has represented Canada internationally.
We know from previous research that the Prime Minister’s trip to India had a seriously negative impact on his ratings in this area. While they have recovered somewhat, they are still far from what we found in March 2016.
But when it comes to climate change policy, his negative assessments have doubled.
Looking closer at who disapproves of the PM’s climate policy, surprisingly, it’s not just Conservative supporters. In fact, only 53% of current Conservative supporters feel the PM is doing a poor job on climate change and greenhouse gases. One in three NDP supporters and 46% of Green Party supporters also think he’s performing poorly on the file.
Looking at it another way, 68% of those who think the PM is doing poorly on climate change also think climate change is a crisis that demands action and among those group, 58% support either the Liberal, New Democratic, BQ, or Green parties.
As much as he’s received pushback by those who might want him to do less, or at least oppose the federal government’s carbon pricing policy, there are many who also feel he and the government have not done enough on the issue.
Going into 2019, the Trudeau government will need to find a way to keep its progressive and environmentalist coalition together while attracting those in the centre that are looking for a policy approach that is measured and reasonable on issues around climate, economic and fiscal management, and cost of living.”
METHODOLOGY
Our survey was conducted online with 2,000 Canadians aged 18 and over from December 13 to 18, 2018. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
As we close out 2018 and look to 2019, we surveyed 2,000 Canadian adults and explored their views on federal politics and how they were feeling about the direction of the country. Here’s the first of a series of releases, detailing what we found:
DIRECTION OF THE COUNTRY
By a seven-point margin, Canadians are more likely to think (42%) the country is headed in the right direction as say it is off on the wrong track (35%).
The results on this question show marked regional differences with a +12 gap in BC, +5 in Ontario, and +23 in Quebec. In Alberta, the net right direction-wrong direction score is -24. Among those on the left of the spectrum, we see a +30, those on the centre +10 and on the right -27.
Millennials feel more optimistic (+26) than Boomers (-7) or Gen Xers (-2).
Compared to the rest of the world, the consensus seems to be things could be worse. Around the world, only 17% see things going in the right direction, while 62% say things are off on the wrong track. “Wrong track” views are up 3 points, just since October.
Canadians are more likely to think things are worse in the US: 72% say the US is off on the wrong track – only 15% think it is heading in the right direction. Interestingly, this perspective among Canadians doesn’t vary all that much across regional or partisan or philosophical lines: 62% of Albertans, 62% of Conservative voters, and 63% of those on the right side of the spectrum think America is heading in the wrong direction. 81% of Liberal supporters feel that way as well.
ACCESSIBLE VOTER POOLS
As the country enters another federal election year, 53% say they would consider voting Liberal, 48% would consider voting Conservative, 43% would consider the NDP, 36% Green, and 18% the People’s Party. In Quebec, 29% would consider voting BQ.
Focusing on the three most populous provinces (which together account for more than a third of the seats in the House of Commons), the Liberals have an accessible pool of 54% in BC, 59% in Ontario and 50% in Quebec. The Conservatives find 48% in BC, 52% in Ontario, and 33% in Quebec. The NDP find 47% in BC, 52% in Ontario, and 37% in Quebec.
In short, the Liberals have a larger accessible voter pool than the Conservatives in BC (gap of 6) in Ontario (gap of 7) and in Quebec (gap of 17).
The decline of NDP consideration in Quebec is all the more striking given that at the start of the 2015 federal election, almost half of Quebecers said they would vote for the NDP, not just consider voting for the party.
Among Millennials, the largest age group in the upcoming election, 59% would consider voting Liberal, 53% NDP, 46% Conservative, 46% Green, 22% People’s Party.
CURRENT VOTING INTENTION
If an election were held tomorrow, 35% say they would vote Liberal, 34% Conservative, 17% NDP, and 7% Green. In Quebec, 17% would vote BQ. At a one-point margin, this is the closest we’ve tracked the Liberals and Conservatives since the last federal election.
Regionally, our latest data shows tight races in BC and Ontario, strong leads Conservative leads in Alberta and Saskatchewan, and significant Liberal leads in Quebec and Atlantic Canada.
Almost half of those we surveyed say it is very (7%) or somewhat likely (36%) that they could be persuaded to support a different party by election day. This includes 44% among current LPC voters, 56% among current NDP voters, 52% among current Green Party voters, and 33% of current CPC voters.
If Liberal voters were to switch, 36% would move to the Conservatives, 35% to the NDP and 23% to the Green Party.
If Conservative voters were to switch, 40% would move to the Liberal Party, 27% to the NDP and 15% to the Green Party.
If NDP voters were to switch, 45% would migrate to the Liberals, 28% to the Conservatives and 17% to the Greens.
At this point, while the Conservatives are competitive in overall voting intention and have the firmest support, they lag in terms of second choice consideration among voters who might rethink their current intentions.
PREFERRED PRIME MINISTER
When asked which of the party leaders they would prefer to see as Prime Minister after the next election, 45% picked Justin Trudeau, 29% Andrew Scheer, 10% Jagmeet Singh, 10% Elizabeth May and 5% Max Bernier. This is largely unchanged from our last survey.
Mr. Trudeau leads on this question everywhere but in Alberta and Saskatchewan where he trails Mr. Scheer by 16 points, and in Saskatchewan where he trails by 11. Mr. Trudeau’s lead in BC is 11 points, In Manitoba 15, in Ontario 19, in Quebec 24, and in Atlantic Canada 38 points.
Worth noting is that among NDP voters, Trudeau is three times more likely to be preferred as PM compared to Mr. Scheer. Mr. Trudeau also has a significant advantage over Mr. Scheer among Green Party and BQ voters.
Among those who identify as being on the “left” of the spectrum, 59% would prefer Trudeau as PM compared with 16% for Singh, 13% for May, and 10% for Scheer.
PREFERRED ELECTION OUTCOME
Setting aside how they currently intend to vote, 39% say they would prefer to see a Liberal government after the next election, compared to 33% who would like to see the Conservatives win. Just 15% would like to see an NDP government.
In BC the gap is 36-32 in favour of the Liberals, in Ontario 40-34, in Quebec 45-22 and in Atlantic Canada 52-18. More would prefer a Conservative government after the next election in Alberta (55-25) and Saskatchewan (46-25).
UPSHOT
According to Bruce Anderson: “As was the case in 2015, the country seems to be heading for a competitive race, but so far it looks more like a two-party race than a three-party contest.
The Liberals have considerable regional advantages in Quebec and Atlantic Canada but face a strong challenge from the Conservatives in Ontario and BC.
Under the surface of these voting, intentions lie two potential advantages for the Liberal Party. While party voting intentions show a one-point gap, preferred Prime Minister reveals a 16-point advantage for Mr. Trudeau over Mr. Scheer. In our next release, we will review our latest data on the popularity of the leaders in more detail.
The second potential advantage for the Liberals lies in their lead as a second choice in a market where almost half say they may change their mind before election day. Among NDP, Green, and BQ voters, switching would tend to favour the Liberals over the Tories.
The recent movements are a reminder that no outcome can safely be predicted based on current attitudes – they are but a snapshot of current conditions and tendencies.”
According to David Coletto: “This is the closest federal horserace we’ve measured since the last election.
Thanks to large leads in Quebec and Atlantic Canada and a competitive position in BC and Ontario, the Liberals still have the advantage over the Conservatives. But about a third of former Liberal Party supporters now says they will support another party (26%) or are undecided (11%). Without engaging new voters or converting NDP, Conservative, or Green supporters, the Liberal majority will be difficult to replicate.
Despite a strong end to 2018 for the Conservatives, headwinds remain. The party’s accessible voter pool is smaller and big leads in Alberta and Saskatchewan are wasted when it comes to converting votes into seats. More importantly, fewer Canadians would consider the Conservatives as their second choice, meaning they have to convert far more of their potential supporters than the Liberals do.
Perhaps most challenging for the Conservatives to date is the general mood of the country. While most see danger and discord in the US and around the world, their sense of security at home is stronger. It’s hard to defeat an incumbent government when more feel positive than negative about where the country’s going.”
METHODOLOGY
Our survey was conducted online with 2,000 Canadians aged 18 and over from December 13 to 18, 2018. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
Description: 12 to 15 hours per week, from early January to mid-April, possibility of turning into a summer position.
Compensation: $18/hour
Role:
Abacus Data is looking for an energetic, self-starting university student who is looking for an internship based in Ottawa to support the senior research team. As a member of our growing team, you will report directly to the Executive Director and work closely on a range of client projects and marketing efforts.
Based in Ottawa, you will be responsible for contributing to all aspects of qualitative and quantitative research projects as well as managing content development on AbacusData.ca and the CanadianMillennials.ca websites. We are looking for someone with an entrepreneurial spirit who enjoys to write, communicate, and learn about new topics. A passion for research, politics, and public affairs is definitely an asset.
One of the primary responsibilities of the position will be to conduct in-depth interviews. You will be trained to conduct interviews and be part of our interviewing team.
During the 4-month placement, you will be asked to support our team on a range of projects and work with the team to develop content for public consumption.
Responsibilities:
Support the senior research team in all aspects of the research process including:
Questionnaire and discussion guide development
Survey programming and project management
Data analysis
Reporting – PowerPoint or written reports.
Coordinate marketing and content publishing with team.
Develop content for the CanadianMillennials.ca website.
Requirements:
Internet savvy and fluent in MS-Office suite of products.
Strong interpersonal, writing, organizational, problem solving, and communication skills.
Ability to create content quickly.
Ability to work with minimal supervision.
Currently enrolled in an undergraduate or graduate program
Previous research experience and fluency in French is an asset.
Desired Skills and Experience:
Collaborative – you can work closely with the Abacus Data team to leverage expertise to develop content for the Abacus Data and Canadian Millennials websites.
Persistent – doing whatever it takes to get things done with integrity and without excuses.
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About Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data is a leading public opinion and marketing research firm, bringing together the latest technology and industry expertise to help organizations effectively understand and connect with those they serve.
Having conducted research for some of North America’s leading corporations and advocacy groups, we deliver global research capacities with the attention to detail and focus of a boutique firm.
We are at the forefront of the research sector and deliver revolutionary insights and strategy to our clients. Our team brings together a rare combination of experience and energy in a team of professional researchers. We all value integrity, hard work, and creativity believing good research insights come from an intense focus on our clients, rigorous methods, and occasionally challenging convention. The bottom line is we get things right.
If you are a charity you may be looking at the next generation of donors and scratching your head. You might have seen contradictory articles, telling you that millennials are both the most and the least charitable generations in modern history. Much has been written about this subject and the answers to these commonly asked questions vary by region and economic circumstance. Here at Abacus Data we try to thoughtfully answer these questions with novel research and inquisitive minds. In our last wave of the Canadian Millennials Report, our bi-annual syndicated study, we asked 2,000 millennials about their contributions to charities; here is what we found.
Most millennial households make less than the Canadian median income of $70,336 and nearly 68% make less than $70,000. This tells us that with lower incomes, millennials will have a lower donation threshold relative to older income-earning Canadians. Using the latest StatsCan data we know that approximately 87% of Canadian baby boomers donate money to charities in any given year, while our research shows, that millennials donate at a much lower rate – only 48% of millennials donate money to charities and charitable causes.
Initial impressions of millennial giving suggest that millennials are either the stingiest generation in modern history or at the very least the poorest. Nevertheless, while millennials might not be as well-off as older generations (bearing in mind that they are just starting their careers) they do still contribute to the charitable ecosystem. Knowing that millennials make less than the average Canadian income-earner, we broadened our scope to include time and in-kind donations to charitable causes. When we included all forms of charitable donation (volunteering, food/clothes donations, and monetary) we find that 80% of millennials have donated to charities in the past year.
So, are Canadian millennials less charitable than their parents? The data would suggest that the answer to that question is no. While millennials do not donate money to charities at the same level as their parents do, they subsidise their lack of funds with their time and in-kind donations. How does the modern charity cope with this shift in giving? While you might see a trimming of your bottom line in the coming years it seems as though you also have an army of ready and willing volunteers. Alternatively, recognizing that millennials have less money to donate, charities could crowdfund their projects where millennials can collectively contribute to a smaller piece of the overall goal. The new age of the charity isn’t a bleak one, it’s full of new opportunities for those who are willing to shift their traditional operations model to one that recognizes the new reality of the donor.
If you want to get a handle on how your industry is being disruptive by generational change, contact us to see how we can help you get a head of the curve.
We asked millennials for their outlook on their personal finances and their views on investing. Overall, we found that while most millennials are savers, few are investors. While three quarters of millennials have their money in their savings accounts only 41% put their money in growth vehicles likes stocks, bonds, or government investment schemes like GICs or RRSPs.
A whopping 75% of millennials have some degree of savings while the remaining quarter have none. 24% have up to $5,000 in saving, while 13% have between $5,000 and $10,000 in their accounts. Additionally, 1 in 5 millennials have between $10,000 and $50,000 in their savings account. This raises the question, if millennials have money stored away, why aren’t the investing it? Let’s try to unravel this ball of millennial yarn and exam some common mythologies.
MOUNTAINS OF DEBT
The first narrative we usually hear is that millennials are burdened with titanic mountains of student debt. It is sensible that millennials wouldn’t be investing because they have immediate liabilities they need to attend to. However, this narrative seems to fall short when we look at what 2000 millennials told us earlier this year. Only 30% have over $10,000 in debt while the remaining 60% have less than $5,000 or no debt at all. What this suggests is that most millennials are not spending their savings on servicing their debt. Their money seems to be remaining in their savings account rather than working for them in other investment instruments.
One disclaimer, in our calculation of debt we asked millennials to exclude mortgage debt. With that said, we know that over half of Canada’s millennials do not own a home and many who do often own purchase in a partnership with their parents (we actually wrote a very good article about this).
So, mortgage debt would only effect about half of our respondents and even then, the full weight of a mortgage is only applicable to an even smaller subset of millennial home owners as many share the burden with their parents and/or a partner. Therefore, if most are not spending their money on servicing debts (of all varieties) let’s figure out why millennials have left their money to languish languorously in their savings accounts.
LEGACY FEARS FROM THE GREAT RECESSION
The second millennial myth surrounding their financial outlook is that they are afraid to invest money after having witnessed the horrors of the 2008 financial crisis. Now, after many studies on human behaviour we have determined that humans, like most other sentient lifeforms, are loss averse. This means that while we like gains, we hate losses, even modest ones. Our brains interpret even some of our smallest losses as full body blows. Millennials have been stereotyped as perhaps the most grotesquely loss averse generation since the Great Depression. So, we tested this hypothesis and asked millennials to rank how risky they thought a list of different investment vehicles were.
When it comes to secure places to store their money, millennials prefer no other place more than commercial banks. 69% of millennials identified savings accounts as the safest place to hold their money, while 19% opted to store their hard-earned dough under their mattresses, and 12% really had no idea. After savings accounts the perceived risk profile of these standard investment instruments went up significantly.
Assets that can be quickly turned into cash are consider the next safest place to store money (41%). There’s even less certainty when it comes to bonds, exchange traded funds (ETFs), and mutual funds. Less than a third of millennials think these standard investment instruments are safe places to house or grow their wealth.
Investing in the stock market also brings anxiety to millennials. Most, (57%) see buying individual stocks as risky investments. Older millennials (those 28 and up) actually think that they have a better chance getting their money back from lottery tickets than putting their money into the stock market (33%). Younger millennials (born 1990 and later) take an alternate view. Only 19% of these younger millennials think that buying a lottery ticket is a safe place to invest their money while a nearly half (47%) would say that investing in individual stocks is a better choice.
THE UPSHOT
Notably, the most persistent variable across millennial age groups is the high level of uncertainty. Simply put, millennials do not know much about investing. Only a small portion of them actively invest their money and of those that do only half (51%) invest it themselves while the rest invest through brokers. Millennials are still very conservative when it comes to investing their money.
So why aren’t millennials investing? Well, we know it’s not debt, despite popular belief they don’t have much of that. Rather, they are undereducated in how different investment vehicles work and while they have savings they have little faith in the financial markets. Banks and advisors need to pacify the fears of millennial investors. They need to educate and demonstrate how millennials can invest securely and confidently as the become the dominate force in financial markets.
This data came from the Canadian Millennials Report, Canada’s largest reoccurring syndicated publication dedicated to understanding the views of Canadian Millennials. We survey 2,000 Millennials twice a year tracking their attitudes over time and their perceptions of current issues. If you’re interested in learning more about the Canadian Millennials Report click here.
The purchase and sale of recreational cannabis have recently become legal in Canada. This change has and will continue to create a number of new dynamics in the marketplace for product manufacturers, retailers, and public policymakers.
Drawing on our extensive experience in understanding the nascent legal market for cannabis products, Abacus Data is launching a market monitoring tracking study to explore how legalization is affecting consumers and to keep an eye out for public policy and marketing issues that may require adjustments along the way.
This is the ideal product for all three levels of government or businesses in the manufacturing and retail space who want to keep a close ear to the evolving cannabis conversation in Canada.
For the first year of legalization, we will survey a sample of 5,000 Canadians on a quarterly basis, after the first year we will move to survey biannually. The sample will be reflective of the regional, age, gender, and income profile of the country and will include both users and non-users of cannabis. With the recent legalization, we expect this will be the first time that we can expect a clear line of sight on the size of the market, as respondents should be less hesitant to be honest about their product use.
Our plan is to launch our first wave study in January 2018 and use that to create a market segmentation model based on usage and attitudes. This will serve as a framework for examining product and brand image, as well as expectations for the role of government and public policy.
COSTING
QUESTIONS WE PLAN TO EXPLORE
How many people are using different cannabis products and at what frequency?
What is the typical spend per customer per product?
How is the shift from illegal to legal market going?
What companies and brands are recognized?
How are people responding to product marketing?
Are education and enforcement regulations working?
Is legalization helping to keep the product away from children or curtail the black market?
How is the retail experience for customers based on mode of purchase?
What societal impacts are observed by Canadians?
And many more.
HOW ELSE WE CAN HELP:
1.We can brief decision makers and stakeholders on your behalf. Sometimes, the information and data has more impact coming from an independent, third party.
2.We can leverage our social networks to get your content in front of the right people.
3.We can work with our partners at spark*advocacy to make your content beautiful, impactful, and engaging.
All these services are offered at an additional cost.
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the unprecedented threat of generational change and technological disruption.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice for our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
