Four names top the list of candidates attracting interest in the CPC race.

In our latest poll we asked people which of 7 possible candidates for the leadership of the Conservative Party of Canada they think would make the best leader. Note, this survey was conducted prior to Kevin O’Leary mentioning his interest in possibly running for the leadership.

Here are the highlights of our findings:

• Among those who say they would vote CPC today, Peter MacKay leads this field of 7. His support at 42% is well ahead of the other names we tested. Jason Kenney stand in second with 19% followed by Lisa Raitt and Tony Clement, both with 13%. Kellie Leitch, Max Bernier and Bernard Lord attract about 5% support each.

• Among those who say they would consider voting CPC but wouldn’t do so if an election were today, the results are slightly different. Jason Kenney drops back to 10%, Max Bernier moves up to a 3 way tie for second with Lisa Raitt, and Tony Clement, each with 12%.

• Among voters in Quebec, MacKay attracts 34%, but Bernier is not far behind with 23%, followed by Bernard Lord 14%, Lisa Raitt 11%, and Jason Kenney 10%. Tony Clement and Kellie Leitch are well back with 5% and 3% respectively.

• Among voters in Ontario, MacKay has 38% support, followed by Clement and Raitt at 19% and 17% respectively. Jason Kenney is a bit further back at 11%.

• Among BC voters, MacKay stands at 36%, followed by Raitt at 23%, with Clement (16%) and Kenney (11%) further back.

• Among men, MacKay has 41% followed by Raitt and Kenney with 14% each.

• Among women, MacKay leads but with only 33% followed by Raitt at 18% and Clement at 16%, and Kenney at 10%.

• Among voters who self describe as “right” on the political spectrum, MacKay (35%) leads Kenney (25%), followed by Raitt (15%). Among those who self identify as “centre-right”, the results are MacKay 39%, with Kenney 18% and Raitt at 16%, more closely bunched.

• Among younger voters (under 45) MacKay stands at 32%, followed by Lisa Raitt at 19%. The others all fall somewhat further back.

The Upshot

According The results suggest that while MacKay has strong name recognition and a considerable level of public support, that the race has the potential to prove a competitive one. Certainly, Jason Kenney has a significant level of support, especially among those who are most committed to the Party and most likely to participate in the process of selecting a leader.

Moreover, the regional differences and gender differences in these numbers suggest that Lisa Raitt and Tony Clement may well, if they choose to run, provide significant competition for Messrs. MacKay and Kenney. Ms. Raitt’s support among women and younger voters may prove a factor to watch if she decides to enter this race.

Finally, one of the questions that Conservative voters will consider as they go through this process is whether to pick a new leader to that be best suited to will rally and heal the base, or to grow the Conservative franchise, aiming at centre right voters. Where to put the emphasis will be one of the most important strategic choices that any of these candidates can make in the early going.

Methodology

Our survey was conducted online with 1,500 Canadians aged 18 and over from January 8 to 12, 2016. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 400,000 Canadians.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data Inc.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD.

Abacus Data conducted a nationwide survey on behalf of Teck Resources – Canada’s largest diversified resource development company and a significant Canadian exporter. The focus of the study was Canadians’ views of Canada’s relationship with China, with an emphasis on trade, including their preferences for that relationship going forward. This release highlights the key findings of this study.

Importance of the Relationship

Canadians have grown more aware of our economic relationship with China, and today a majority (56%) consider it to be very important to Canada (11%), or one of the most important (45%) relationships. Another 39% say it is important but not more than our relationship with other countries.

There are few differences based on where in Canada someone lives, interest in the Chinese relationship spans the country. There is an important relationship with age: the younger you are, the more likely you are to see the relationship with China as very important for Canada.

Future of the Relationship

A solid majority (61%) expect the economic and trade relationship with China will grow larger over the next 10-20 years, while only 9% say it is likely to decline.

Far more people would rather see the economic and trade relationship with Canada grow (52% than would like to see it shrink (16%). One in three (32%) would like it to remain about the same size.

To put this in context, we asked the same question about desire for the future of the relationship with the US. The number hoping to see an expansion of the relationship with the US was only slightly higher (58%).

As is normally the case with public opinion about trade relationships, Canadians are more enthusiastic about increasing exports to China (69% would like to see an increase) than about increasing imports from China (24% would like to see an increase.)

When it comes to investment flows: 38% would like to see increased investment from China into Canada and an almost identical 40% would like to see increased investment in China from Canada. Few are looking to see a decline in investment flows either way.

When it comes to Chinese ownership of Canadian companies, opinion is more mixed: while 38% would like to see no change, 19% favour an increase, and 44% would prefer a decline.

Overall, 30% say they are supportive of Canada having a closer relationship with China, while 24% say they don’t think they “can get comfortable with Canada having a much closer relationship with China”. The rest – the plurality – occupy a middle position “I could probably be persuaded to support a closer relationship with China if I knew more about what was involved and why it was in our interests”. (46%)

The Role of China in the World Economy

One in three Canadians (35%) say “China is already or will become the world’s most important economic player”, while a majority feel “China will be important in the world economy but so will a number of other countries. (65%)

Trust in China?

While the Chinese system of government and economy is different from that of Canada, most Canadians do not feel there is a major trust barrier in terms of dealing with China. 21% say China can be a trusted economic partner for Canada, another 51% say it can be trusted as much as any other country. Only 28% say China cannot be trusted as an economic partner.

Canadian Sovereignty Risk?

A fair number of people sense that Chinese investment in Canada can involve some risk to Canadian sovereignty. 53% say that “when China invests in Canada, Canadian sovereignty is put at risk” while 47% say “Chinese investment is good for Canada’s economy and the risks are minimal”.

Free Trade with China?

Canadians are evenly divided on whether free trade with China would be good or bad for Canada. Younger people and those on the right are more positive than older people and those on the left but the differences are not huge.

Historically, Canadians have been reticent about embracing the idea of free trade as an article of faith – they tend to want to be reassured that Canada has at least as much opportunity as it has risk. Over time, comfort levels with Canada-US Free Trade and NAFTA strengthened.

Canadian Investment & Chinese Controlled Enterprises in Different Sectors in Canada

We explored how Canadians felt about the potential for increased Chinese investment in different sectors of the economy, from airlines to biotechnology. The majority support or are “willing to support with conditions” greater Chinese investments across all sectors tested. Between 31-41% would oppose more Chinese investment in any of the 13 sectors tested.

Resistance to Chinese investment is slightly higher in respect of the oil, pipeline and newspaper sectors, and slightly lower in the wireless, biotechnology, aerospace, cable TV, natural gas, and airlines sectors.

We also probed how people would feel if the investments amounted to “control” of Canadian firms by Chinese owners. The result is that opposition rises, to a range of 37% in the case of railways to 55% in the case of oil, gas, and pipeline companies.

Segmentation

When we step back from individual questions and look at patterns of responses, it is possible to identify three different segments in Canadian public opinion when it comes to our economic relationship with China.

Just over a third (36%) are supportive, just over a quarter (28%) are generally opposed to a closer relationship and the rest could best be described as conditionally supportive.

The supportive segment is slightly more male than female, evenly distributed by age, and across region. What makes this group unique is that they are more convinced that the economic might of China will grow, that China can be trusted, and that free trade would serve Canada’s interests.

The opposed segment is more likely to be made up of older people, more females than males, and live in BC and Ontario. They tend to worry about Canadian sovereignty, doubt China can be trusted, and are more likely to vote NDP.

The conditionally supportive segment is more likely to be female, younger, and urban dwellers, This group is concerned about sovereignty but the issue for them is more about trade deals generally, rather than trust in China specifically: they would want to be convinced that the merit for Canada was clear, and the upside compelling.

The Upshot?

Canadians recognize that China has become one of the world’s most important economic players and want to see Canada have a significant relationship with China when it comes to trade and investment flows.

This is not a view that is skewed by region: people across the country see the benefits of strong economic ties. Perhaps even more noticeable is that young Canadians are more open to strengthening our ties with China, as they will have the ability to influence policies and economic choices over the longer term.

However, as with most choices, Canadians also exhibit a degree of caution and prudence. This is not so much to do with China per se, as the majority believe that China is no less trustworthy than any other potential trading partner. Instead, Canadians are looking for the best of all possible worlds: more exports, but not necessarily more imports; healthy two-way investment flows, but ideally without seeing control of Canadian enterprises shifting to Chinese investors.

In most cases, there is not so much opposition and hesitation – a desire to be caution and to be convinced of the merits, rather than to take a risk. Still, if one compared these results to the views Canadians would have had about China over the last few decades, there can be little doubt that the country has become more enthusiastic about this relationship and convinced that a strong economic relationship with China is important to Canadians’ standard of living in the future.

Moreover when it comes to the idea of a free trade deal with China, the results suggest a degree of openness that might not have been there a decade ago. Canadians will naturally have concerns about being competitive enough with Chinese companies, but also recognize the potential economic upside is significant too.

Methodology

The survey was conducted online with a total of 1,500 residents of Canada aged 18 years and older, between September 9th and 11th, 2015.

A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of Canadians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 2.1% 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched to population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data Inc.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD.

By a 2:1 margin, people approve

By Bruce Anderson & David Coletto

Today, 53% say they approve of the performance of the federal government, similar to the 51% we measured in December. To put this in context, at no point during 2015 did the Harper government find an approval rating higher than 37%.

Also noteworthy is that a year ago, 2 out of 3 people thought the economy was doing well; today, 2 out of 3 describe it as poor.

Today, just 25% disapprove of the performance of the government, even though 60% voted for another party. This underscores the challenge facing opposition parties, as Canadians are inclined to give this government some time to establish its agenda.

14% of those who voted Conservative voters approve of the Liberal government’s performance so far, as do a striking 57% of those who voted for the NDP.

Approval of Prime Minister Trudeau personally is at 57% while disapproval is 24% underlining that a very large proportion of the positive feeling about the government has to do with reactions to Mr. Trudeau himself.

Detailed Assessments of the Prime Minister

We explored reactions to Mr. Trudeau’s performance in office on 17 different items.

• On all 17 items a sizeable majority (never smaller than 67%) said he was doing an acceptable or better job.

• On his worst rated item, “dealing with ISIS”, only 34% give the PM a poor rating.

• Four items stand out for showing the strongest positive assessments: “level of openness and accessibility’, approach to “dealing with the news media” “personal values in how he approaches his job” and “representing Canada internationally”

• Close behind these were “working with the Premiers” “aboriginal relations” and his selections to Cabinet posts.

• On handling the economy, managing the federal budget, and dealing with taxpayers money, Mr. Trudeau gets acceptable or better ratings from 70%-72%.

• On his approach to refugees, 40% give Mr. Trudeau a good rating, 27% acceptable, and 32% a poor rating. Deeper analysis shows that this issue more than any other creates a clear dividing line between Conservative Party supporters and other voters.

• When it comes to reforming the electoral system, 37% say the PM is doing a good job, another 44% acceptable, while only 19% are unhappy at this point in time.

• In the wake of the COP21 agreement, 44% give the PM a good rating, 40% acceptable, and just 17% say “poor” when it comes to how he has dealt with climate change and greenhouse gases.

• On “what to do about the Senate” 32% say Trudeau is doing well, 45% acceptably, while 23% offer a poor rating.

Mr. Trudeau receives positive reviews from most of those who voted NDP: large majorities describe his performance as acceptable or better on all 17 items. A majority of Conservative voters rate Mr. Trudeau’s performance as acceptable or better on 10 of the 17 items.

The Upshot

According to Bruce Anderson: “The positive feelings about the federal government so far, despite a weakening economy, challenge the conventional wisdom that politics is always about the economy.

While the government is getting pretty good marks for handling challenging substantive issues, the most positive assessments continue to have a lot to do with appreciation for the tone and attitude of the Prime Minister towards others.

Recalling the degree to which both his major opponents built campaigns on the assumption Mr. Trudeau would not wear well with Canadians, it is very clear that they have their work cut out for them now. So far, Mr. Trudeau is converting what was hope that he would do well into a feeling that he is proving himself fit, and then some, to hold the office of Prime Minister.”

Methodology

Our survey was conducted online with 1,500 Canadians aged 18 and over from January 8 to 12, 2016. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 400,000 Canadians.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data Inc.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD.

Canadians are unsure bombing will work, hesitant about sending troops, and think a ground war may be needed.

In our most recent nationwide public opinion survey, we explored three questions that tapped into how Canadians feel about the choices facing Canada and other countries when it comes to dealing with ISIS (This data was gathered after the attacks in Paris, but before the shootings in San Bernardino).

Will Air Bombing Work?

Under half (45%) of those surveyed said they believe “air bombing is an effective way to degrade and ultimately destroy ISIS”, while a majority felt “air bombing is unlikely to be effective at destroying ISIS”.

These views vary somewhat by partisan affiliation – but the differences might not be as large as one might expect. As many as 42% of Liberal voters think bombing would work, and as many as 44% of Conservative voters doubt that it would. NDP voters are the most certain on this question, with 64% saying bombing won’t work, and 36% saying it will.

There is less variation by demographics or region. Men, and those 45 and over are somewhat more likely to think that air bombing is effective while women and those under 45 are somewhat less convinced.

Should Canada Send Ground Troops or Train Local Forces?

The uncertainty about whether air bombing would work is also evident on the question of whether Canada should send ground troops to join in combat with ISIS, if other countries do. Almost half (43%) think we should, while the majority (57%) prefer that “Canada should train local forces but not become involved in combat”.

Once again, differences by partisanship are evident but not extreme. Majorities of Liberal voters (64%) and NDP voters (62%) say we should stick to training local forces, while 61% of Conservative voters favour participation in a coalition ground war.

Similar demographic differences persist on this question as well.

Should a Coalition Commit to a Ground War to Defeat ISIS?

While many have doubts about bombing’s effectiveness and hesitate about having Canadian troops be involved in combat, when asked if a coalition of countries should commit to a ground war, the tendency is for most people to want to see that happen: 61% say “a coalition of countries should commit ground forces for as long as it takes to defeat ISIS once and for all” while 39% felt “a ground war to defeat ISIS will be costly, ineffective and result in more risk, not less, for the world”.

Conservative voters (72%) are most convinced of the merits of a ground war, but significant numbers of Liberal voters (56%) and NDP voters (52%) share the feeling that this might be necessary.

Older Canadians and men are more likely to favour a coalition ground effort than women and younger people.

Worth noting is the fact that three quarters (74%) of those who think air bombing would be effective also believe that ground forces are needed. Of those who doubt the effectiveness of an air campaign, half thing ground troops are a good idea.

The Upshot

These numbers illustrate that many Canadians are unsure of what course will be best for Canada and the world when it comes to dealing with the complex threat posed by ISIS.

According to Bruce Anderson “In a situation like this, Canadians know that their political leaders have no simple, easy or obvious choices. They also know that the situation is evolving and that new events or information may tilt the balance in favour of one type of action or another.

In a sense this uncertainty provides room for political leaders, of any stripe, to champion the course of action they most believe in, secure in knowing that few Canadians will dismiss it out of hand. Finally, while the debate about ISIS has been partisan at times, these data suggest that a fair number of people on all sides of partisan divides aren’t committed to the line adopted to date by their party. In all likelihood, this is because they are unsure of what the best course really is given the complexity of the situation.”

Methodology

Our survey was conducted online with 1,500 Canadians aged 18 and over from November 23 to November 25, 2015. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data Inc.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD.

In case you missed it…some of our latest releases

Early handicapping of the Conservative Party leadership race

Job approval of the new government

How financially literate are Canadians?

Broad support for the new government

In our most recent nationwide public opinion survey, we tested support levels for 9 people whose names have been rumoured as people who might make good candidates for the leadership of the federal Conservative Party.

Undoubtedly, other names may be added and some subtracted from this list next time we do this survey, as people rule themselves in or out as candidates, but this set of data helps us understand going in levels of familiarity and enthusiasm.

Also, it almost goes without saying that public opinion, and even the opinion of Conservative voters, might not reflect the views of CPC activists who will vote in the leadership race. These numbers are more a reflection of the broader community in which the CPC operates and seeks to attract support.

Five top tier contenders; Peter MacKay with an early advantage

Five of the nine names tested have more substantial or broadly based support than the other four. The leading group would include Peter MacKay, Jean Charest, Jason Kenney, Lisa Raitt, and Brad Wall. The second group includes Max Bernier, Doug Ford, Michael Chong and Kellie Leitch.

Peter MacKay would start a leadership race with a sizeable public opinion lead (31%), including strength among current and accessible Conservative voters, and people who describe themselves as on the centre of the spectrum, a group the Conservatives need to court in order to be in a position to win an election.

Jean Charest (although of this field he may be the least likely to enter a race), would command substantial initial support (15%). When it comes to accessible (not current) CPC voters, Charest would do substantially better than all of the other candidates save MacKay.

Jason Kenney and Lisa Raitt both poll at 10% across the country. Ms. Raitt’s support is a bit stronger among accessible rather than core voters; the opposite appears true for Kenney, but these are mild differences at this point.

Some important differences are found in regional breakdowns:

• MacKay’s support out of the gate would be heaviest in Atlantic Canada (49%) but fairly substantial in other regions as well, including 33% in Ontario.

• Jean Charest would find no less than 11% in any region of the country and 23% in Quebec.

• Brad Wall finds 26% support in the Prairies, but at only 6% in Ontario and 2% in Quebec would need to build up his recognition and support outside his home turf.

• Jason Kenney’s support is slight in Atlantic Canada (5%), but 10% in Ontario, BC and Quebec, and 13% in the Prairies.

• Lisa Raitt finds fairly consistent support across different regions, and is tied for second in Ontario (with Charest and Ford)

• Doug Ford claims 12% support in Ontario, 9% in BC, but no higher than 5% anywhere else.

• Maxime Bernier finds 22% support in Quebec, putting him in a tight three-way cluster with Charest and Mackay in that province. His support in other parts of the country is more limited, and he polls at just 2% in Ontario.

• Michael Chong finds 10% support in BC and 7% in Ontario, suggesting he could tap into pools of people who have noticed and liked his stance on Parliamentary reform.

• Kellie Leitch would start the race with less name recognition and support only hitting 5% support in her home province of Ontario.

There are some other differences in support patterns that are worth noting as well.

• Lisa Raitt has almost twice as much support among women (13%) as among men (7%) Her support is fairly consistent across age groups. If anything, her support skews a bit younger.

• Peter MacKay has more support among men (33%) than women (29%), and his support tends to skew older, although he leads among all age groups.

• Jason Kenney’s support rises a bit with age. Gender differences are mild.

• If we look only at current CPC voters (24% of all voters) in this survey the race is led by MacKay (35%) followed by Wall (17%) Kenney (12%) Charest (11%), and Raitt (8%).

• If we look only at accessible CPC voters (“I’d consider the Conservatives but not voting CPC now”) the Mackay leads (36%) followed by Charest, Kenney and Raitt all at 12%.

• If we look only at those who describe themselves as on the right of the spectrum Mackay’s support is a bit lower (28%) followed by Charest (14%) Wall (10%) Ford (10%) Kenney 9%) Bernier (9%) Chong (8%). Raitt is at 7% within this group.

• If we look at centre right voters MacKay leads, and Charest, Wall, and Kenney are all closely bunched.

• Finally, among centre voters MacKay leads, followed by Charest, with Kenney and Raitt tied for third place. Brad Wall is a little further back among this group.

We also probed whether voters would vote or consider voting Conservative if each of the individuals tested were leader. The results show that MacKay would create a potential CPC pool of 47%, followed by Charest, Kenney, Raitt, Wall all at 36-38%. Bernier (34%) Chong (34%) Leitch (32%) follow a little further back. Doug Ford would clearly be the most difficult choice, as fully half say they would not consider voting CPC with him as leader, a far greater level of resistance than for any of the other candidates.

Looking at the results to these questions broken down by ideology reveals that Jason Kenney would slightly eclipse the potential of Peter MacKay among self described right-wingers. Mr. Kenney trails Mr. MacKay among centre right voters and centrist voters, when it comes to the potential to increase CPC support.

The Upshot

This race of course has not yet begun, and to some degree these numbers reveal largely name recognition. A lot can and often does happen once a campaign gets underway.

Nevertheless the patterns do suggest that some names tend to stand out from the rest and some people are know more as centre/centre right conservatives while others have more direct appeal on the right. Regional patterns of support matter too.

Taking a step back, it seems fair to conclude that as far as public, and indeed CPC public opinion is concerned, there may be a looming battle among those who favour a more pragmatic, less ideological Conservative Party and those who feel otherwise. Support for names like MacKay, Charest, Raitt suggest also that support in central and eastern Canada may, initially anyway, gravitate towards a candidate from a different part of the country.

By most accounts, Jason Kenney has formidable support across the base of the Conservative Party and among its activists. These numbers confirm his strength but also suggest the campaign may turn out to be a more competitive one than some have imagined.

Methodology

Our survey was conducted online with 1,500 Canadians aged 18 and over from November 23 to November 25, 2015. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data Inc.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD.