After last week’s Speech from the Throne Liberal support is steady nationally at 35%, with the Conservatives five points back. NDP support is steady at 17%.
The regional breaks show the Liberals ahead in BC (by 4 points), Ontario (by 8 points), Quebec (by 7 points) and Atlantic Canada (by 17 points).
Overall assessments of the federal government have inched up in recent weeks: today 47% approve and 37% disapprove, that’s 3-points higher than earlier this month.
On a regional basis, the Liberals find 46% approval in Quebec, 48% in Ontario, 52% in BC and 57% in Atlantic Canada. Across the three Prairie provinces, more people disapprove than approve of the Trudeau government.
Views of the three main party leaders are fairly steady. Trudeau is at +3 (41% approve, 38 disapprove), O’Toole is -1 (23% approve, 24% disapprove) and Singh is +13 (37% approve, 24% disapprove).
The Prime Minister is liked by 85% of Liberal voters, 39% of Green Party voters, 34% of NDP voters. Most BQ voters (68%) dislike Mr. Trudeau, as is the case with Conservative voters (73%).
UPSHOT
According to Bruce Anderson: “Right now, Canadians are focused on the pandemic and the economy and trying to cope with uncertainty about both. The Liberals got little obvious lift from their Throne Speech but will be able to take some comfort in the fact that other than in Alberta and Saskatchewan there is a reasonably good level of support for the direction the government is taking.
The Prime Minister is often a focal point of Conservative criticism but our numbers continue to suggest that there are limitations to this approach – CPC voters who dislike the PM amount to 21% of the electorate – to build a winning coalition Erin O’Toole will need to craft a more compelling reason to replace the government than dislike of Mr. Trudeau.”
According to David Coletto: “We continue to see relatively stable opinions when it comes to politics in Canada. The Speech from the Throne does not appear to have fundamentally changed much yet with the Liberals having a clear advantage over the Conservatives who remain stuck in the low 30s.
I continue to monitor the government’s relatively high approval rating. The gap between those approving of the government and saying they would vote Liberal is near the highest it has been in our tracking and suggests if forced into an election, the Liberals may do considerably better than the vote intention numbers suggest.”
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 2,440 Canadian adults from 23 to 28, 2020. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.0%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
Abacus Data Bulletins are short analyses of public opinion data we collect. For more information or media interviews, contact Bruce Anderson or David Coletto.
Millions of Canadian parents are anxious about whether their children are safe as school returns this fall. In our latest nationwide survey, we probed Covid-19 related anxieties and here’s what we found:
• 47% of those who have children in primary, secondary or post-secondary school say they are fairy or very anxious about whether things are being handled safely on campuses, in classrooms and school buildings. This includes 15% who say they are very anxious.
• Anxiety levels are above 50% in BC, and Ontario as well as across Saskatchewan and Manitoba, and are lower than average in Quebec and Atlantic Canada.
• Fathers and mothers show very similar levels of anxiety.
• A clear majority (56%) of parents with kids in primary schools or secondary schools are anxious.
• 51% of Conservatives are anxious, as are 46% of Liberals, and 55% of New Democrat supporters.
Our deeper analysis shows that worries about COVID-19 have a significant relationship with whether people think the country is heading in the right direction or is on the wrong track. Among those who think the country is going in the right direction, just 34% are worried about school safety right now. Among those who think the country is on the wrong track, anxiety is 22-points higher, at 56%.
UPSHOT
“It’s probably not an overstatement to suggest that a parent’s concern about their children’s health and safety is going to be the most important consideration for them on a day to day basis. The pandemic has, for many parents, brought both the economic anxiety that everyone feels and an extra amount of concern as their children return to schools and campuses. Those stakeholders who are arguing against lockdowns and in favour of a rapid normalization of everyday life, may find themselves meeting a strong headwind of parental concern depending on the depth and nature of this fall’s pandemic spikes.”
GRAPHICS
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 546 Canadian parents of children in primary, secondary, or post-secondary schools from September 18 to 21, 2020. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 4.3%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.
An election today would see the Liberals (35%) slightly ahead of the Conservatives (32%) nationally with the NDP back at 17%. Since early this month, the Liberals are up by two, the Conservatives one, and while the NDP is down one – changes all within the margin of error.
The regional patterns indicate the Liberals are in a strong position than the national number suggests. The Liberals lead the BQ by 10-points in Quebec (36% to 26%), lead the Conservatives by 6 in Ontario (39% to 33%) and have an almost 30-point lead in Atlantic Canada (54% to 25%). The Conservatives and Liberals are close in BC (34% to 29%) while the Conservatives dominate in the Prairies.
As he sets to outline the government’s agenda to a new session of Parliament, the Prime Minister’s image remains split with 40% having a positive view of him and 39% having a negative view. Although down from highs in May and June, the PM’s numbers are still stronger than they were before the pandemic began.
Impressions of Mr. O’Toole have become slightly more negative over the past few weeks. 23% have a negative view of the Conservative leader compared with 22% who have a positive view.
Mr. Singh’s numbers remain more positive with 34% having a positive impression (down 3 since early September) and 25% negative.
Approval of the federal government is steady and generally positive with 46% approving and 37% disapproving. Outside of Saskatchewan and Alberta, the federal government’s approval rating is at least 43% reaching 60% in Atlantic Canada, 52% in BC, and 47% in Ontario.
80% of people who voted Liberal last fall approve of how the government is doing, while 9% disapprove. Conservatives hold almost opposite views with 74% disapproving and 15% approving. Almost half of NDP voters approve (47%) while a third disapprove (34%). BQ voters are generally more disapproving of the government than approving (53% disapprove vs. 25% who approve).
The gap between the federal government’s approval rating (46%) and the Liberal vote share (35%) is something to watch carefully. It suggests the Liberal vote share has plenty of room to grow and maybe underperforming. For comparison, just prior to the start of the 2019 election campaign, the government’s approval rating was 36%. It ended up with 34% of the popular vote.
Among the 46% who approve of the job performance of the Liberal government, 56% would vote Liberal today. The other 44% split between preferring the NDP (14%), the Conservatives (8%), the Greens (6%), and the BQ (2%). 13% are currently undecided.
If that 13% who are undecided did vote Liberal, the party’s vote share would increase to 42% and the Liberals would have a 10-point lead over the Conservatives. That gap between approval and vote is something to monitor closely over the next few months.
UPSHOT
According to Bruce Anderson: “We are heading into a period of remarkable uncertainty – on any number of fronts – including the pandemic, the global economy, the US elections. The patterns of opinion provincially and federally tend to underscore that people are drawn towards stability over disruption in this period of time. Events that might in other circumstances carry more political charge seem to be ignored by many people, as the focus is on getting through a day, a week, a month at a time, and hoping for a solution to the pandemic before too many more months. These numbers are a reminder to government that people are looking for steady over flashy and to opposition parties that partisanship for its own sake carries a particularly bad odour today as voters struggle with everyday life.”
According to David Coletto: “The Canadian political landscape appears to have entered another period of stability, despite a high level of public uncertainty and anxiety. Despite Erin O’Toole’s win as Conservative leader and perhaps because of the on-going COVID-19 pandemic, public opinion has remained relatively stable for the past few months.
The Liberals and Conservatives are competitive in vote intentions, but the Liberal government has a solid and durable approval rating. The Prime Minister’s image remains more positive than it was before the pandemic started.
As the government outlines its new agenda for the next session of Parliament, it does so in a position of relative strength. It has healthy leads in Ontario and Quebec and is continued to be viewed positively by almost half the country. The pandemic and its economic and social impact have Canadians on edge but so far, many are satisfied with the federal government’s performance.”
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
METHODOLOGY
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian residents from September 18 to 21, 2020. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
Earlier this month, the Broadbent Institute commissioned us to conduct a national public opinion survey to explore the kind of recovery agenda Canadians want the federal government to set in response to the pandemic.
The survey found:
1. Almost half (45%) think the worst of the pandemic is still to come and only 19% think the worst is behind us.
2. Most Canadians believe the pandemic has had negative impacts on many aspects of life, including the availability of good-paying jobs, the ability to prepare for retirement, housing affordability, and wealth and income inequality in Canada.
3. Almost all Canadians (82%) believe that the wealth of Canada’s richest people is better off or has not been impacted by the pandemic while most think the economic and social well-being of youth, racialized Canadians, and women have been negative impacted.
4. 65% of Canadians believe “the pandemic has highlighted problems with how the economy and social policies are run in Canada and major changes are needed to ensure that these problems do not happen again if there is another crisis like the COVID-19 pandemic.”
5. Given this, half of Canadians want to see the federal government announce bold new ideas for how to fundamentally improve people’s lives and deal with climate change. 36% want the federal government to announce some changes, but nothing that fundamentally changes how things are done. 10% want the government to keep the direction it set before the pandemic and change very little.
6. There is a broad and deep desire from Canadians to see a post-COVID recovery agenda that helps make Canada more self-sufficient on manufacturing/growing key products, puts people first, improves public services, helps transition to a low-carbon economy, and forces the richest in Canada to help pay for the new investments.
Here are more detailed findings from the survey:
WE AREN’T OUT OF THE WOODS YET: 45% THINK THE WORST OF THE PANDEMIC IS STILL TO COME
Almost half of Canadians remain pessimistic about the outlook for the pandemic. 45% think the worst is still to come, while only 19% feel the worst of the pandemic is behind us. The remaining 36% are not sure about the outlook.
This uncertainty and unease underscore the public’s mood about the pandemic, its impact, and how they want governments to respond to a post-COVID recovery.
FROM JOBS TO INEQUALITY, TO HOUSING: CANADIANS BELIEVE THE PANDEMIC HAS MADE MANY THINGS WORSE.
The survey asked respondents whether the COVID-19 pandemic has made several aspects of life and particular groups in society better or worse off.
A majority of Canadians believe the pandemic has made things worse when it comes to:
• The availability of good paying, secure jobs (70% worse). • The ability of people to plan for a secure retirement (68% worse). • Income and wealth inequality (62% worse). • The available of affordable and high-quality childcare (59% worse). • The affordability of housing (58% worse).
Canadians also recognize that particular groups have been negatively impacted by the pandemic.
About a majority believe:
• The opportunities for young people have become worse because of COVID-19 (64%). • The health and well-being of front-line workers in healthcare, retail, and other service sectors is worse because of COVID-19 (54%). • The economic and social well-being of racialized or visible minority communities is worse because of COVID-19 (55%). • The economic and social well-being of women is worse because of COVID-19 (49%).
In contrast, almost all Canadians (82%) believe that the wealth of Canada’s wealthiest people is better or has not been impacted by the pandemic. In fact, 31% think Canada’s richest people are better off because of the pandemic. Only 18% think they are worse off.
MAKE MAJOR CHANGES NOW TO PREVENT THIS FROM HAPPENING AGAIN. 2 IN 3 CANADIANS THINK MAJOR CHANGES TO HOW THE ECONOMY AND SOCIAL PROGRAMS RUN TO ENSURE THE PROBLEMS THE PANDEMIC HIGHLIGHTED DON’T HAPPEN AGAIN.
65% of Canadians believe “the pandemic has highlighted problems with how the economy and social policies are run in Canada and major changes are needed to ensure that these problems do not happen again if there is another crisis like the COVID-19 pandemic.” Only 19% think the “way the Canadian economy and social policies worked before the pandemic was good and does not need major change.”
The desire for major changes is consistent across Canada, across age groups and gender and even across the political spectrum. 62% of Liberal voters, 69% of Conservative voters, and 72% of NDP voters want to see a major change.
Given this, half of Canadians want to see the federal government announce bold new ideas for how to fundamentally improve people’s lives and deal with climate change. 36% want the federal government to make some changes, but nothing that fundamentally changes how things are done. 10% want the government to keep the direction it set before the pandemic and change very little.
This view is consistent across the country, with half of those living in every region or province wanting bold new ideas from the federal government. There’s also some consistency across the political spectrum. 54% of Liberal voters want bold new ideas, 45% of Conservatives, 69% of Liberals, 74% of Greens, and 63% of BQ voters.
CANADIANS WANT A POST-COVID RECOVERY THAT PUTS PEOPLE FIRST.
There is a broad and deep desire from Canadians to see a post-COVID recovery agenda that helps make Canada more self-sufficient on key products, puts people first, improves public services, helps transition to a low-carbon economy, and forces the richest in Canada to help pay for the new investments.
We asked: “As the federal government prepares its agenda for Canada’s post-COVID recovery, tell us how important, if at all, the recovery effort meets the following criteria?”
Specifically, the survey found that a majority of Canadians say it is extremely or very important that the post-COVID recovery plan include:
• Help to build up Canada’s ability to produce key products like food and medical supplies domestically (74%). • Invests in strengthening our health system including universal public pharmacare (70%). • Focuses on helping people and doesn’t allow corporations to set the agenda and benefit the most from the recovery (67%). • New laws and regulations are put in place to help protect vulnerable front-line workers for exploitation (63%). • Giving municipalities the funding they need to continue to deliver core services and build infrastructure for the changing economy (63%). • Increasing or creating new taxes on Canada’s richest people (60%). • Ideas to ensure younger Canadians are not permanently set back because of the economic crisis (57%). • A major focus to help Canada transition to a clean, low-carbon economy and deal effectively with climate change (54%). • A plan to ensure affordable, high-quality childcare is available to everyone who needs it (47%).
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The survey also found broad support for a new wealth tax on the wealthiest multi-millionaires and billionaires in Canada and for a new tax on corporations who have made large profits during the pandemic.
THERE IS POLITICAL RISK FOR THE LIBERALS IF THEY FAIL TO DELIVER BOLD, NEW IDEAS.
Among the 54% who want to see bold new ideas from the Liberal government’s post-COVID recovery plan, 49% say they will definitely not vote Liberal or probably not vote Liberal if they do not announce bold new ideas for how to fundamentally improve people’s lives and deal with climate change in the Throne Speech next week.
This includes 18% of those who voted Liberal in 2019 or about 10% of the entire electorate.
UPSHOT
The COVID-19 pandemic continues to cause widespread concern and anxiety for Canadians. Almost half still think the worst is yet to come, and most do not feel the economy will recover to pre-COVID levels within 12 months.
The pandemic has also highlighted many aspects of the economy and society that Canadians feel are not working right. Moreover, most recognize that the pandemic has made many aspects of life – from finding a good job, to preparing for retirement, to finding affordable housing – harder to achieve.
Given this, there is clear majority support for a post-COVID recovery plan that is bold and has new ideas to improve the problems the pandemic has exposed and to ensure that they do not happen again if another crisis like COVID-19 happens in the future.
Most say it is very important that the post-COVID recovery plan strengthens Canada’s production capacity to supply key products, that it strengthens the public health care system, and it helps transition the economy away from fossil fuels. There’s also a deep desire to see it put people, not corporations first, and for those with the most to help pay for the new investments.
The opinion environment is ready for a bold and progressive post-COVID plan. Most Canadians expect bold action from the government.
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
METHODOLOGY
Our survey was conducted online with 2,000 Canadians aged 18 and over from September 4 to 9, 2020. A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
An election today would see the Liberals (33%) and Conservatives (31%) in a virtual tie in terms of national support. The NDP is further back with 18%, a level they have maintained for many months now.
The regional patterns show the Liberals tied with the BQ in Quebec, virtually deadlocked with the Conservatives in Ontario, ahead of the Conservatives by 7 points in BC, and leading by 9 in Atlantic Canada. The Conservatives hold massive leads in the three Prairie provinces.
The narrowing of the gap between the two front running parties is most notable in Ontario. It coincides with the Conservatives’ selection of Erin O’Toole, an Ontario Member of Parliament, as their new leader. During the same period, we see a 7-point rise in favourable opinions of Mr. O’Toole. For the first time since we began tracking sentiment towards Mr. O’Toole, positive impressions (21%) outstrip negative (19%) views of him. In Ontario, Mr. O’Toole’s positives increased by 10-points in a few weeks, from 11% last month to 21% today, the largest shift in any region of the country.
Impressions of Prime Minister Trudeau sagged during this measurement period, with positives dropping 7 points and negatives up 3. Views of NDP leader Jagmeet Singh are showing signs of improvement over time, with his positives edging upward over the summer to 37%, the highest positive number we have ever registered for Mr. Singh.
Approval of the federal government is steady, with 44% saying they approve of the job Ottawa is doing and 38% disapproving. Approval of the government is highest in BC (52%), Atlantic Canada, and Ontario (49%) and lower in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Quebec.
Three of four people who voted Liberal last fall approve of how the government is doing, while 12% disapprove. Conservatives hold almost opposite views with 74% disapproving and 14% approving. New Democratic and Green voters are evenly split with 42% approving of the federal government and 36% disapproving while Bloc voters in Quebec are more likely to disapprove than approve by more than a 2 to 1 margin.
UPSHOT
According to Bruce Anderson: “Andrew Scheer’s unpopularity has been removed as a political factor, and the signals are that Erin O’Toole is beginning his life as Conservative Party leader in a highly competitive position. Scheer was disliked by 47% of voters; O’Toole is disliked by only 19%. The narrowing of the gap indicates that support for the Liberals was to some degree anyway built on dislike for Scheer, and the Liberals now need to assume they are locked in a race that feels more head to head, than ahead by a length.
These numbers also suggest that a not insignificant proportion of Liberal voters are less than enthused about the performance of the government and while the government used to be able to count on broad support from NDP voters – this too has softened. BQ voters are attitudinally looking more like Conservative voters in their feelings about the federal government. None of this looks like the mood of people who see a clear agenda from Ottawa, and probably reflects a sense that the agenda has seemed somewhat diffuse and defensive for weeks.
We’ll dig into more details about how different issues are affecting choice in our next release or two.”
According to David Coletto: “The political environment in Canada appears to be highly competitive as the Liberal government aims to reset the agenda with a Throne Speech later this month.
The Liberals and Conservatives are essentially tied while the NDP support slowly crept up to 18%. Close to its high point over the past few months.
Four findings standout to min our latest results:
First, Erin O’Toole’s first days as Conservative leader appear to have started well. His positives are up 7-points while his negatives are down.
Second, I’d watch Quebec carefully. Views of Mr. Trudeau and the Liberal government are quite polarized in the province, and the BQ is now tied with the Liberals there.
Third, Jagmeet Singh’s numbers continue to improve. More people have a positive view of the NDP leader today than they have at any point in our tracking.
Finally, Liberal vote share is down while the government’s overall approval rating has remained steady. Only about half of those who approve of the federal government say they would vote Liberal if an election were held today. 16% would vote NDP, 9% would vote Conservative, 5% Green, while 11% say they are undecided.”
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 2,289 Canadian residents from August 28 to September 3, 2020. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
Abacus Data Bulletins are short analyses of public opinion data we collect. For more information or media interviews, contact Bruce Anderson or David Coletto.
About one in five (19%) Canadian adults has a child eligible to get to primary or secondary school in Canada this fall, including 38% of those who are between the ages of 30-44.
Based on the approach that they understand is being taken within their province in terms of pandemic related preparations, half of them would prefer not to see their kids in classrooms.
Men and women are not divided on this question: 49% of mothers and 52% of fathers prefer not to have their kids in classrooms.
Because of the smaller sample size of parents, care needs to be taken in looking at regional differences. However, it looks like opinion is fairly evenly split in BC, Ontario and Quebec, while Albertans are more likely to want to see their kids in classrooms.
Conservative voting parents (65%) prefer kids in classrooms, while Liberal (49%) and NDP (40%) parents are more hesitant.
UPSHOT
“Throughout the pandemic, our polling has shown that Canadians want to err on the side of caution. And even with the passage of months and declining infection rates, there is plenty of anxiety about what will happen when kids return to schools in the next couple of weeks. Governments will be under intense scrutiny and be expected to act quickly if parents feel that protection protocols are not working and their children are at risk. So far, the level of confidence is tentative, at best.”
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 278 Canadian parents of school-aged children from August 17 to 21, 2020. A random sample of panellists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 6.0%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.
After several weeks of downward pressure caused by the WE Charity matter, Liberal support is showing some signs of recovery.
An election today would see the Liberals (36%) with a 6-point margin over the Conservatives (30%) and the NDP further back with 18%.
The regional patterns show the Liberals ahead of the BQ by 8 in Quebec, ahead of the Conservatives by 15 in Ontario, ahead of the Conservatives by 7 in BC, and leading by 16 in Atlantic Canada, with the NDP and Conservatives trailing. The Conservatives widened their advantage over the Liberals in Alberta and Saskatchewan. The Liberals could win re-election based on these numbers.
Impressions of Prime Minister Trudeau also improved from our last measurement, by 4-points. As he prepares to leave the leadership of the Conservatives, impressions of Andrew Scheer remain decidedly more negative (47%) than positive (21%). Views of NDP leader Jagmeet Singh are stable at 35% positive and 26% negative.
Approval of the federal government had been declining for three straight measurement periods. Still, that decline has stopped in this survey, with 45% saying they approve of the job Ottawa is doing and 38% disapproving. A year ago, in the wake of the SNC scandal, those numbers were the reverse, with 36% approval and 45% disapproval.
The accessible voter pool for the Liberals has not been materially affected by the WE matter, with 53% saying they would consider voting Liberal, compared to 46% for the NDP and 44% for the Conservatives.
The Liberal Party has an 11-point advantage in accessible voter pool compared to the Conservatives in BC, a 20 point advantage in Ontario, a 27-point advantage in Atlantic Canada. In Quebec, the Liberals have an 11-point advantage over the Conservatives and the NDP, and a 7-point advantage over the BQ.
For the Conservatives, their accessible voter pools are massive advantages in the Prairies. Only 32% of Quebecers would consider voting Conservative.
The NDP finds more extensive accessible voter polls in BC, Atlantic Canada, and Ontario, where about half of people in those regions open to voting for the party. Only 1 in 3 Quebecers are open to voting NDP. More importantly, while the voter pools for the Conservatives and Liberals are relatively consistent across age groups, the younger Canadians are much more open to voting NDP than older Canadians. Only 30% of those aged 60+ would consider voting NDP, half as many as those aged 18 to 29.
UPSHOT
According to Bruce Anderson: “Canadians generally seem to have returned their focus to everyday life, enjoying what’s left of the summer, managing life during COVID, the return to school, the future of the economy, the election in the US. The Conservatives have an opportunity to re-set their party with a change of leaders in the next week, but so far, many Canadians are not looking for a fundamental change in direction. Anxiety is high about many things, but skirmishing in Ottawa is not at the top of that list of things for many people, it seems.”
According to David Coletto: “The bleeding from the WE controversy seems to have stopped, and Liberal support has rebounded, giving the incumbents a healthy lead over the Conservatives. The Prime Minister’s image has improved over the past few weeks.
As the Conservatives select their new leader this week, the party finds itself in one of its weaker positions over the past decade. It continues to have a smaller accessible voter pool than either the Liberal or New Democratic parties. Andrew Scheer remains the most unpopular national party leader. Whoever becomes Conservative leader will have a lot of work to expand the party’s appeal. Despite all the challenges the Liberals have faced over the past few months, the party’s support is stuck in the low 30s.”
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian residents from August 14 to 19, 2020. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
Competitive compensation package commensurate with experience.
Annual performance bonus 20-30% of base salary.
Generous marketing bonus for all new business development.
Expected start date: September or October 2020
The opportunity: Here at Abacus Data, a premier Canadian public opinion research & strategy agency, we are looking to capitalize on explosive growth by adding to our senior team.
If you are an experienced, energetic, self-starting research and public affairs professional who lives & breathes public affairs and knows government well, let’s talk.
In this role, you will work closely with the firm’s executive team to help grow the firm’s public sector practice.
As a senior member of our growing and evolving team, you will directly influence our future growth and success by acting as the lead in building a practice focused on public sector social and market research.
You will be responsible for helping to grow our public sector-focused research practice by working closely with the Director of Business Development and CEO to identify opportunities, build relationships with potential clients, and manage client relationships and projects with the research team.
In this role, you will work directly with clients, often acting as the lead contact with our growing public sector client group. In addition, you will be a leader and mentor to our research team. Finally, you will regularly interact with other service lines to bring the best Abacus Data solutions to our clients.
You will be expected to identify new business opportunities, coordinate with the sales and marketing team, and execute new projects as they are converted.
Responsibilities:
Develop a strategy to expand the public sector client base and strengthening our offering to public sector clients at all levels (federal, provincial, and municipal).
Report directly to the CEO (David Coletto) and work closely with the Executive Director and Director of Business Development as a member of the firm’s executive team.
Drive our team to deliver high-quality work for our clients that is error-free, valuable, and meets the standards of our leadership team.
Manage day to day responsibilities of research projects, start to finish including client consultation, proposal development, oversight of the creation of research instruments, analysis, and presentation of final deliverables.
Requirements:
4 to 8 years of experience in a client servicing role in public affairs, research, or the public sector with experience designing, executing, and analyzing public opinion research projects.
Experience analyzing data and helping leaders use data to make decisions.
An analytical mind that is excited about telling stories using data and research.
Experience managing a team.
Clear evidence of being detail-oriented with a focus on delivery and error-free work.
Able to create stunning presentations that tell the story in our data to our clients and potential clients.
Strong interpersonal, writing, organizational, problem solving, and communication skills
Ability to work with minimal supervision and execute a strategy.
University or college degree/diploma in a related field.
Bilingual in English and French is not a requirement, but an asset.
Desired Skills and Experience:
Driven to succeed – self-starter, with a record of getting things done.
Detail-oriented – you are someone who is picky, relenting, and focused on delivering error-free, high-quality work.
Innovative – you think of interesting and alternative ways to improve the quality of the work we output.
Collaborative – you can work closely with the team to leverage expertise to improve the quality of the work we do.
Persistent – doing whatever it takes to get things done with integrity and without excuses.
Independent – you work well without constant supervision and cherish your freedom to achieve business and personal objectives.
Apply by August 21 at 5pm ET
If you think you’re the right candidate for this task, please send a cover letter and CV to David Coletto at david@abacusdata.ca. Only those selected for the next round of the process will be contacted.
About Abacus Data Inc.
Founded in 2010, Abacus Data is an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
We have offices in Ottawa and Toronto but work with clients across North America such as Shaw Communications, the Canadian Bankers Association, the Mining Association of Canada, Food & Consumer Products of Canada, NAV Canada, the Wine Growers of Canada, Teck, Imperial Oil, Canadian Real Estate Association, Google, the Air Canada Pilots Association, NUPGE, HealthPartners, the Paramedic Association of Canada, the Canadian Pharmacists Association, and Music Canada.
Our vision is to be Canada’s premier data-based strategy firm with a reputation for outstanding customer service, creative thinking, and innovative methods. We will do that by working harder, being more creative, delivering more value to our clients, while doing it all with a smile.
For more information about Abacus Data, visit our website at www.abacusdata.ca
To assess whether perceptions and intentions have changed since that time, Music Canada commissioned us to conduct another national survey in which many of the same questions were re-asked.
Our survey finds that an increasing number of Canadians are concerned about COVID-19, and a growing number of them plan to avoid public events even after restrictions are lifted, resulting in a longer threat to live music.
Most Canadians, including those who regularly attend live music events, remain uncomfortable with returning to live music events in the foreseeable future. Concern about the virus is down but remains elevated. More today think the worst is yet to come than did back in April.
The results also suggest that several safety measures may do little to alleviate fears of infection. Even if live events are allowed to re-open, most consumers will likely stay home, including those who tell us they deeply miss the experience of attending live, in-person music events.
Many Canadians have experienced cancelled or postponed concerts, and among those who have seen those events cancelled, there is a deep sense of loss and frustration. Despite this, music remains a source of comfort and discovery for Canadians during this pandemic.
This second round of research is also a reminder of the importance of live music to Canadians. They continue to report that they value music; they miss going to live music events; and they miss it more than they did in April. While they are discovering new artists and finding more new content from their favourite artists, the vast majority of Canadians agree that digital performances will never replace the feeling of attending live music events.
Here are some additional highlights from the research:
CONCERNS ABOUT COVID-19 REMAIN ELEVATED.
One in three Canadians are extremely worried or worried a lot about COVID-19 today, down slightly from April but still elevated. Concerns cross all age groups and are fairly consistent across the country.
More troubling, more Canadians today believe the worst is still to come with the pandemic than they did in April (44% today vs. 39% in April). These views are even higher among those who regularly attend live music events (those we refer to as Live Music Lovers), with almost half thinking the worst is still to come.
The widespread concern about the pandemic means that few Canadians (18%) want health authorities and governments to move more quickly to allow normal activities to resume. Four in ten want governments to move more slowly than they currently are.
MORE CANADIANS MISS GOING TO CONCERTS THAN IN APRIL AND WHILE THE AVAILABILITY OF DIGITAL CONTENT IS APPRECIATED IT DOESN’T REPLACE THE FEELING OF SEEING LIVE MUSIC.
Millions of Canadians have experienced postponed or cancelled live events over the past few months due to the pandemic, including half of those who regularly go to live music events.
Many Canadians want to get back to enjoying live music when it’s safe to do so. Since April, those who say they really miss going to concerts has increased by 11 percentage points to 88%. Another 77% are upset about cancelled music festivals this summer.
And despite many digital alternatives being available, most say that digital content won’t replace the feeling of seeing live music, including 89% who attend live music events regularly.
That being said, music remains a vital antidote to the stress and anxiety caused by the pandemic. Eight in ten Canadians agree that listening to music is a way to relieve stress. More than half agree they have found new content online about music and musicians they love, and 4 in 10 have discovered new artists during the pandemic.
This is especially true of Live Music Lovers. Almost all of them say they miss live music events and concerts and agree that digital experiences won’t replace the feeling of seeing a concert in person. They want to experience live music again and can’t wait until they feel comfortable to do so.
AS ECONOMIES RE-OPEN, MORE CANADIANS EXPECT TO STAY AWAY FROM LIVE MUSIC EVENTS LONG AFTER PHYSICAL DISTANCING RESTRICTIONS ARE LIFTED.
Among all Canadians, large majorities express hesitation returning to live music events. More than seven in ten say it will take at least six months or more before they feel comfortable going to large or small indoor concerts or music festivals.
Even most of those who regularly attend live events report say it will take a long time before they are comfortable returning. 55% say they will wait at least six months or longer to attend a music festival after physical restrictions end – and for large concert venues, it is 60%. Perceptions of risk for attending these types of events are rising over time instead of declining. Ultimately, Canadians are more resistant to returning to live music events today than they were three months ago.
SAFETY PROCEDURES AT VENUES WILL DO LITTLE TO REDUCE PERCEPTIONS OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH RETURNING TO LIVE MUSIC EVENTS.
While Canadians miss attending live music events, many suggested safety protocols or procedures do little to make them feel more comfortable returning to live events.
When we tell respondents that a venue has reduced the number of attendees that can go to a concert, only 15% of all Canadians and 32% of Live Music Lovers say they are certain to or likely to attend a concert.
Moreover, other safety measures such as mandatory mask-wearing and hand sanitization or physically distanced seating only get 19% to 24% of people saying they would be more likely to attend an indoor concert. Even those most likely to attend live events remain resistant, even with these measures in place.
All this suggests that even if venues put in place procedures that reduce the risk of infection, concert-goers will continue to be hesitant to return, and potentially for a number of months. Just because people can attend a concert with these new measures, it doesn’t mean they will.
UPSHOT
The COVID-19 pandemic continues to elicit widespread worry and anxiety for millions of Canadians. The threat of the virus has not subsided, and if anything, the longer the pandemic lasts, the more people recognize that the disruption to their lives will last far longer than many expected when the pandemic started.
Our survey for Music Canada clearly demonstrates that even if concerts are allowed to re-open, audiences will be slow to return, even among those who regularly attend these kinds of events and genuinely miss them during this extended pandemic.
Safety measures will make some people more comfortable and reduce the potential risk of infection, but the data suggests it may not be enough to make these events viable. Not only will most measures – like mask-wearing, distancing, and hand sanitizing – not be enough to bring back most back, but they could have a negative impact on the overall experience. These measures are likely to repel as many concert-goers as they attract back.
All in all, these results paint a bleak picture for the artists, technicians, and others who depend on live music to make a living. While Canadians value their craft and miss the live music experience more as the pandemic continues, their elevated concerns about the virus make them more hesitant to return to live events. Even when live music events return, fans may not at the level needed for venues and live events to be economically viable. Until the risk of infection drops substantially, the threat to live, in-person music remains real and profound.
METHODOLOGY
Our survey was conducted online with 2,000 Canadians aged 18 and over from July 13 to 17, 2020. A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
ABOUT MUSIC CANADA
Music Canada is a non-profit trade organization founded in 1964 that promotes the interests of its members as well as their partners, the artists.
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.
The controversy about the WE Charity has eroded Liberal support, including among one in five who voted for a Liberal candidate only months ago.
An election today would see the Liberals (34%) with a 4-point margin over the Conservatives (30%) and the NDP further back with 17%. The regional patterns in the most populous provinces show the BQ and Liberals statistically tied (33% to 32%) in Quebec, a tie between the Liberals and Conservatives in Ontario (36% to 35%), and a 12-point Liberal lead in BC. In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals lead by 19-points. The Liberals could win re-election based on these numbers but their lead has been significantly diminished in a short period of time.
Other indicators confirm that the We Charity matter is creating scar tissue for the incumbents.
Approval of the government is down 4-points in 10 days, and 14-points since May. Negative opinion about Mr. Trudeau is up 5-points over the same period, and up 11-points since May. For the first time in months, more people have a negative view of the Prime Minister than a positive one.
Across the country, 44% would like to see a new Liberal leader before the next election, while 30% would prefer to see Mr. Trudeau continue, and 26% aren’t sure at this point. Among those who voted Liberal last November, 65% would like to Mr. Trudeau lead the party in the next election, while 17% would prefer someone else, and 18% are unsure.
THE WE CHARITY CONTROVERSY
Just about half of those surveyed (48%) say they have been following the WE matter very or pretty closely, largely unchanged from our last survey earlier this month. Overall awareness of the issue has increased though with only 14% reporting being unaware of it at all (down 5 points since July 16).
Of those aware of the WE issue, 14% believe the government has handled this situation well, 31% say it’s been handled “ok” and 55% say the government has done a poor job. More than one in three Liberal 2019 voters feel the government has handled this poorly.
A majority (57%) say it seems to them an “attempt to use public money to reward people who are friends and supporters) while 43% say it is more “about short time frames and a lack of proper diligence on the part of the government”. These numbers have shifted 4-points towards the patronage conclusion in the last ten days.
Among those who voted Liberal last fall, 34% think the WE matter is about helping reward friends and supporters with public money, up 3-points since July 16.
SHOULD MINISTER MORNEAU RESIGN?
Half (48%) don’t feel they know enough about Bill Morneau’s role in the matter to have an opinion. Among those who do have an opinion, more think he should resign (35%) rather than stay on (16%) as Finance Minister. Among those who voted Liberal in October, one in five (21%) feel Mr. Morneau should step down, 34% say he should not, and the rest aren’t sure.
Among those who have been following the WE matter closely, 54% say the Finance Minister should step down compared to 26% who say he should stay on, and 20% who don’t have an opinion at this point.
UPSHOT
According to Bruce Anderson: “COVID dominates public concerns, but this matter has nonetheless left an unmistakable mark on public impressions of the Liberals. Lots of opinion is yet to be formed, and time will tell whether the matter fades to the background or becomes even more politically charged, but for the Liberals, there are clear warning signals in these numbers.
A lot of those who supported the party just months ago, seem tepid or even cooler than that in their feelings towards Mr. Morneau. That two-thirds of Liberal 2019 voters want Mr. Trudeau to lead the party next election is not the overwhelming vote of confidence he might have seen had we asked the same question a couple of months ago.
This signals that some voters will be watching carefully to see how he handles himself and manages his government in the days to come, including in his testimony at the Finance Committee. The issue now may now be less about recusal or whether there was corrupt intent, and more about effective management of government and how he responds to the inevitable issues and errors that can arise.”
According to David Coletto: “The WE Charity controversy has turned an eleven point Liberal lead to a four-point in a matter of months. The Liberals are tied with the Conservatives in Ontario and the BQ in Quebec. Worse, underlying attitudes towards the government and the Prime Minister continue to deteriorate. More people now have a negative view of the Prime Minister than a positive one and the government’s approval rating is back to where it was prior to the pandemic.
Canadians remained engaged on the issue and views are shifting away from the government’s narrative. The longer this is a story, the more it damages the public’s impression of the Prime Minister and the government. These results should be a wake-up call to Liberals. It also raises the stakes for the Conservative leadership race because it’s clear, the Liberals are beatable again.”
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian residents from July 27 to 29, 2020. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
