Our latest nationwide survey included a series of probes designed to help understand how the public sees the leaders of the three biggest national political parties.

Here’s what we found.

JAGMEET SINGH

Today, Mr. Singh is arguably the most popular national political leader, with 38% saying they have a positive view of him, while 26% have a negative view. His image is significantly better among women, younger voters, British Columbians and those with post-secondary education. His standing is noticeably worse than his national average in Quebec and Alberta. Those planning on voting Liberal, Green, and NDP like him, while Conservatives and Bloc voters mostly don’t.

Among those who definitely think it’s time for a change in government, more don’t like what they see in Mr. Singh than like him (positive 33% vs. negative 36%). Among voters on the centre, 32% are positive, while 24% are negative. He’s strong in urban Canada and weaker in rural Canada.

Among those who say they will definitely vote 41% like him, while 27% don’t.

ERIN O’TOOLE

Mr. O’Toole is the least popular of the national political leaders, with only 20% saying they have a positive view of him, and twice as many saying they have a negative view (40%).

His image is better among men than women, among those with less formal education, people living in Alberta, those in the 45-59 age group, but still is more negative than positive in every one of those cohorts. His best results are in Alberta and worst numbers are in Atlantic Canada, but the balance is negative in every region, including the Prairies. Those planning on voting Liberal, Green, NDP and BQ are pretty negative towards him.

Among those who definitely think it’s time for a change in government, 34% like him, while 29% don’t. Among voters on the centre, 17% are positive, while 32% are negative. His image is roughly the same in urban, suburban and rural Canada.

Among those who say they will definitely vote 23% like him, while 42% don’t.

JUSTIN TRUDEAU

Mr. Trudeau has an equal mix of fans (40%) and detractors (39%).

His image is doesn’t vary much by gender or age. His best results are in Quebec and worst numbers are in the Prairies. Everywhere but in the Prairies at least 40% like the Prime Minister. Those with high school education tend not to like Trudeau as much as those with a university education (35% vs. 46%). Those planning on voting Liberal like him, but supporters of all the other parties are more negative than positive towards him.

Among voters in the centre, 37% are positive, while 38% are negative. His image is better in urban and suburban areas than in rural Canada, but the differences are not that large.

Among those who say they will definitely vote 42% like him, while 40% don’t.

DETAILED IMPRESSIONS

We also asked respondents to assess each leader on several items – asking them which of two words or phrases best describes the leader. A large majority of voters see Jagmeet Singh as someone with good values, an optimist, and modern. Smaller majorities see him as interesting and possessed of great ideas. People are split about whether he gets “people like them”, although 70% of those under 30 think he does.

Most voters think Erin O’Toole does not get people like them, is boring, old-fashioned, and doesn’t have great ideas. People are split about whether he has good values and tend to see him as more of a pessimist than an optimist.

Justin Trudeau is seen by a broad majority as modern and an optimist, and a solid majority as having good values. Just over half see him as interesting, just under half say he has great ideas. A majority don’t think he really gets people like them.

Comparing the three leaders shows that Mr. Singh has a nine-point advantage on good values over Mr. Trudeau, who is 10 points ahead of Mr. O’Toole. Both Trudeau and Singh are widely seen as optimists and modern, but voters are not sure if Mr. O’Toole is an optimist and tend to think he is not very modern.

Trudeau and Singh are relatively competitive in terms of being interesting. Singh has a 10-point advantage on “great ideas”, “gets people like me”.

Mr. O’Toole’s biggest vulnerabilities are a sense that he doesn’t have very appealing ideas, doesn’t really get the majority of voters, and hasn’t seemed interesting thus far.

WHAT DO SWING VOTERS THINK?

If we concentrate our analysis on those who say they will definitely vote but haven’t yet made up their mind how they will vote, the data also show a modest advantage for Mr. Singh over Mr. Trudeau, both of whom are better positioned than Mr. O’Toole.

Mr. Trudeau’s biggest gaps relative to Mr. Singh are on “great ideas” and “gets people like me” where the NDP leader is ahead by at least 15 points.

Mr. O’Toole is competitive with Mr. Trudeau on “gets people like me” “great ideas” but neither scores very well with these voters. Mr. O’Toole’s biggest gaps behind Mr. Trudeau are on “modern”, “interesting” and “optimist”.

WHAT DO UNDER 30 WOMEN VOTERS THINK?

One of the more interesting voter segments we have been watching lately is women under the age of 30. Among these voters, Mr. Trudeau’s trails Mr. Singh by as many as 30 points on several of these traits.

The Conservative Party has often faced a challenge connecting with this demographic and these results suggest this remains the case.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “While overall voting intentions do not at this point signal a breakthrough for the NDP, these numbers suggest that one of the variables that can make a party more competitive – a popular leader – is something the NDP has right now.

For the Liberals, the data suggest some negatives have accumulated over the years Mr. Trudeau has been in power but there remains a reasonably robust amount of positive opinion towards the Prime Minister – and quite a bit more favourable impressions that those that exist for Conservative leader O’Toole.

For Mr. O’Toole, while impressions of leaders can change a lot during the course of the campaign, this would need to happen in order for the Conservatives to improve their competitiveness with the Liberals. In some respects, the numbers for Mr. O’Toole reflect a view of the party he leads more than he himself, but if his intention was to present himself as a different kind of Conservative leader, this project is not succeeding so far. With 3 out of 4 voters sensing that he does not get people like them – he has been failing to seem relevant and on point for a lot of people who might otherwise cast a ballot for change.”

According to David Coletto: “How we feel about a party’s leader is one of the most important factors in determining how we might vote. In 2011, Jack Layton convinced many of those who identified as Liberal to vote NDP thanks to their affinity for him and their dislike for Mr. Ignatieff. In 2015, Mr. Trudeau re-established Liberal support due to the optimism, change, and hope he offered and the excitement many voters had for what he stood for.

As we head towards a likely summer election call, our survey data suggest that Jagmeet Singh will start the campaign in a very strong position. He has a solid image built on a sense that he is modern, in touch with voters, and an optimist. His net favourables are the best of any federal leader at the moment.

Mr. O’Toole faces the opposite scenario. He has as many people who dislike him as Mr. Trudeau but half as many who like him. He’s seen as out of touch, old-fashioned, and lacking both charisma and good ideas. Both aren’t necessary to win but usually, a successful candidate has at least one to offer voters. Right now, most Canadians, including those who are on the fence but say they will vote, find few positive things to say about Mr. O’Toole.

Prime Minister Trudeau would start a 2021 campaign in a stronger position than in 2019. More people like him now than back then and the contrasts with Mr. O’Toole are even sharper than they were with Mr. Scheer. Although fewer people are angry and strongly dislike him, 2021 isn’t 2015 as Mr. Trudeau has few supporters with a deep affinity for him to count on. His road to re-election is built on general satisfaction with his performance and a dislike for his chief alternative, Mr. O’Toole.

Campaigns can change perceptions and impressions– especially coming out of a time when opposition leaders haven’t had much profile and voters haven’t really considered their political choices. But this data helps us understand where things stand just as the campaign is likely to start.”

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from June 28 to 30, 2021. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

Find out more about what we are doing to help clients respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

We just completed a national survey of 1500 Canadian adults (June 10-15). Here’s what the survey found:

HOW BIG ARE THE PARTY VOTER POOLS?

If there is a national election in Canada this year, it may have a different flavour than recent elections.

The “accessible voter pool” (meaning the number of people who would consider voting for each party) has shifted. Today, the Conservatives (41%) sit behind both the Liberals (56%) and the NDP (48%). In Quebec, 51% are open to voting Liberal, 43% BQ, 31% NDP, and 25% Conservative.

For the Conservatives, this number is hazardously low and 7-points lower than at this point last year and are just 36% among those under 30, 37% among women, and less than 22% of current supporters of the Liberals, NDP, Green Party and Bloc. Only 39% of those who describe themselves as being on the centre of the spectrum say they would consider voting Conservative right now. No less worrying for Conservative campaign organizers may be the fact that 20% of those who consider themselves right of centre won’t consider voting for the CPC today.

For the Liberals, the 56% pool is some 6-points higher than it was in July 2019, before the last election. Less than 1 in 5 BQ voters (17%) and 22% of Conservative voters would consider voting Liberal, but 47% of Green Party and 49% of NDP voters would consider casting a ballot.

For the NDP, 48% indicates a higher degree of potential than we saw in the run up to the last election. A good deal of the potential lies in the fact that 66% of those under 30 will consider the NDP, a notch better than the Liberals at 62%) and almost 30 points ahead of the Conservatives (36%).

Among those who say they will definitely vote (which sometimes is a useful way to identify likely voters from those who may not turn out) 57% will consider the Liberals, 50% will consider the NDP and 42% will consider the Conservatives.

CURRENT VOTING INTENTION

If an election were held now, the Liberals would win 37% of the vote, the Conservatives 25%, the NDP 20%, the Green Party 7% and the BQ 29% in Quebec (8 points behind the Liberals).

• In BC we see the Liberals and NDP statistically tied (34% to 32%) with the Conservatives further back at 21%, and the Green Party polling at 7% .

• The Conservatives’ wide leads in the Prairies, are not as wide as they have been in the past. In Alberta, the Conservatives have 38% support, followed by the Liberals at 27% and the NDP at 20%. Another 15% of the voting intention is divided up among the Green Party (3%, the Peoples Party (8%) and another party (presumably the Maverick Party) with 4%.

• In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, we find the Conservatives with 38% support, the NDP at 27% and the Liberals with 26%.

• The Liberals (with 40%) have a 14-point lead over the Conservatives (26%) in Ontario, with the NDP at 22% and the Green Party at 8%.

• In Quebec, we see the Liberals with 37%, followed by the BQ (29%) the Conservatives (17%) the NDP at 10%.

• In the Atlantic provinces, the Liberals (53%) are well ahead of the Conservatives (20%) and the NDP (20%)

• Among the most likely voters (those who say they are certain to vote) the Liberals lead with 36% compared to 26% for the Conservatives, 20% for the NDP another signal of a Conservative “motivation” challenge, compared to past elections.

• Among self described “left of centre” voters, the Liberals (49%) lead the NDP (30%) and the Conservatives have 10% support.

• Among self described right of centre voters, the Conservatives have 64% support, followed by the Liberals (13%) the NDP (7%) the Peoples Party (6%) the BQ (6%) and Green Party (2%).

• Among those who say they are on the centre of the spectrum, the Liberals lead with 38% compared to 20% for the Conservatives, 18% for the NDP, and 9% for each of the Green and BQ parties.

This overall picture – today, with the caveat that elections can cause a lot to change – suggests the Liberals and the NDP are both better positioned than they were just before the 2019 election, and the Conservatives find themselves more weakly positioned due to a smaller accessible voter pool, only average motivation among Conservative voters (something they normally have an advantage on), and facing competition from both left and right, including in the Prairies, which has been a stronghold for the party in the past.

LEADER IMPRESSIONS

Justin Trudeau enjoys a positive impression among 40% and finds negative impressions among 39%, for a net score of +1. Trudeau is +6 in BC, +2 in Ontario, +12 in Quebec, and +9 in Atlantic Canada. He is -27 in Alberta and -19 in Sask/Man. Among those who will definitely vote, Trudeau is 0. Among those who say it would be “good to have a change of government but they don’t feel that strongly about it”, Trudeau is +20.

Jagmeet Singh enjoys a positive impression among 38% and finds negative impressions among 25% for a net +12. Singh is +24 in BC, +3 in Alberta, +15 in Man/Sask, +17 in Ontario, -2 in Quebec and +24 in Atlantic Canada. He is +6 among men and +18 among women. Among those who say it would be “good to have a change of government, but they don’t feel that strongly about it”, Singh is +28.

Erin O’Toole enjoys a positive impression among 21% and finds negative impressions among 39%, for a net score of -20. O’Toole is -25 in BC, -7 in Alberta, -13 in Man/Sask, -23 in Ontario, -18 in Quebec and -35 in Atlantic Canada. He is -19 among centre voters and +31 among right of centre voters (with less than half registering a positive opinion). Among those who say it would be “good to have a change of government, but they don’t feel that strongly about it”, O’Toole is -14.

Among NDP voters Mr. O’Toole is -53; among Liberal voters he is -47.

Among Conservative voters, Mr. Singh is -26; among Liberal voters he is +23.

Among NDP voters, Mr. Trudeau is -11; among Conservative voters he is -60.

GOVERNMENT APPROVAL

Today 46% approve of the job being done by the Trudeau government, while 39% disapprove. This +7 net score nationally breaks down to a +10 in BC, -15 in Alberta, -11 in Man/Sask, +10 in Ontario, +14 in Quebec, +5 in Atlantic Canada.

Some 19% of Conservative voters approve of the federal government’s performance, as do 32% of BQ voters, 33% of Green Party voters, 41% of NDP voters.

Among those who say it would be “good to have a change of government, but they don’t feel that strongly about it”, 51% approve and 21% disapprove of the Trudeau government.

Among those who say they will definitely vote 47% approve and 41% disapprove.

DESIRE FOR A CHANGE

Today 40% say it’s definitely time for a change in government, which is some 12-points below the reading we found just before election day in 2019. Another 29% would prefer to see a change but don’t feel all that strongly about it.

• Among Conservative voters, 75% are adamant about wanting a change and 23% prefer a change but don’t feel that strongly about it.

• Among NDP voters, 52% are adamant about wanting a change and 35% don’t feel that strongly about it.

• Among Green Party voters, 46% are adamant about wanting a change and 39% don’t feel that strongly about it.

• Among BQ Party voters, 41% are adamant about wanting a change and 30% don’t feel that strongly about it.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “The overall feeling one gets from these numbers is that there are a lot of progressive voters in play, an NDP leader who has built a positive image during the pandemic – but at the same time a fairly muted desire for change in government, and a reasonably good level of approval for the PM and his government.

On the Liberals right flank, there’s some evidence that the Conservative brand is not as strong as it has been in the Prairies, is not terribly competitive in Quebec and Ontario, and the Conservative leader has lost favourability – at a fairly steep pace – during the pandemic.

If the Conservatives have been banking heavily on disaffection with Mr. Trudeau or his government as fuel for their campaign, they may need to find another gear or a different narrative, as swing and centre voters don’t seem drawn to the arguments they are presenting. While their weak appeal with voters on the centre of the spectrum, (the plurality of voters), should be their priority if they are campaigning to win an election, their vulnerability on the right will be their priority if they are worried about not losing ground.”

According to David Coletto: “A 2021 campaign, if it comes this summer, will begin in a very different opinion environment than in 2019.

Although a similar number of people would like to see a change in government, the intensity of that desire is much more muted than in 2019. The country is in a far better mood and the Liberal government has a solid approval rating. The Prime Minister’s personal numbers are much stronger than at this point in 2019 and the opposition Conservatives lack a motivated base, a popular leader, or an issue to galvanize voters around.

It is hard to imagine that an opposition leader (O’Toole) with half as many people with positive views and about equal numbers with negative views as the Prime Minister can challenge for the top job. If anything, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh is the wildcard – he is very appealing to younger voters and has a larger pool of accessible voters than in 2019. If Mr. Trudeau or the Liberals stumble, the NDP is well-positioned to take advantage.”

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from June 28 to 30, 2021. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

Find out more about what we are doing to help clients respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Our latest national survey of 2,070 Canadian adults from June 18 to 21, 2021 finds the Liberals opening a 10-point lead over the Conservatives as the federal government’s approval rating improves.

APPROVAL OF FEDERAL GOVERNMENT

Since our last survey, we see a four-point rise in approval of the federal government’s performance, to 44% with 38% disapprove. While movement on this indicator has been very limited this year, 44% is the highest number we recorded since January.

CURRENT VOTING INTENTION

If an election were held now, the Liberals would win 37% of the vote, the Conservatives 27%, the NDP 18%, the Green Party 5% and the BQ would get 39% in Quebec. The Liberals are up 3 points since mid-June, the Conservatives are down 2, and at the lowest vote share in over four years.

Comparing these results to the outcome of the 2019 election, the Liberals are 4 points higher, the Conservatives 7 points lower, and the NDP 2 points higher.

While regional breakdowns are obviously important, readers are encouraged to read these breaks with appropriate caution, as sample sizes are smaller and margins of error higher.

• In BC we see the NDP (37%) with a 7-point lead over the Liberals (30%) followed by the Conservatives (27%).

• In this wave we see the Conservatives with 39% in Alberta, compared to 34% for the Liberals and 18% for the NDP. The People’s Party claims a 7% share.

• In Saskatchewan/Manitoba we are seeing a close race between the Liberals (34%), the Conservatives (33%) and the NDP (25%).

• The Liberals have a 13-point lead in Ontario, with 42% compared to 29% for the Conservatives and 19% for the NDP.

• In Quebec the BQ (39%) are showing stronger than the Liberals (33%) with the Conservatives well back at 14% and the NDP (5%) and Green Party (6%) essentially tied.

• In Atlantic Canada, we find 50% support for the Liberals followed by the Conservatives at 27% and the NDP at 13%.

Worth noting is that the higher support levels for the Liberals in the Prairie provinces may be an anomaly and reflect smaller cell sizes, but we do also see a 6 point rise in federal approval in Alberta and a 9 point rise in Manitoba/Saskatchewan since the beginning of June.

LEADER IMPRESSIONS

Justin Trudeau enjoys a positive impression among 38% and finds negative impressions among 41%, for a net score of -3.

Erin O’Toole enjoys a positive impression among 19% and finds negative impressions among 40%, for a net score of -21.

Jagmeet Singh enjoys a positive impression among 35% and finds negative impressions among 26% for a net score of +9.

Annamie Paul has seen her negatives increase over the past two weeks. 12% have a positive impression while 25% have a negative one for a net score of -13.

COVID PERFORMANCE

On three measures of federal performance related to the Covid19 pandemic, the federal government has seen generally improving numbers recently.

• On supporting the economic needs of Canadians 41% say Ottawa is doing an excellent or good job compared to 24% poor/terrible for a net +15.

• On finding the right balance between protecting health and the economy, 38% give good marks compared to 29% poor/terrible rating, for a net of +9, up substantially since a -6 net in April.

• But by far the biggest improvement has been on “making sure that Canada receives vaccines in as timely a fashion as possible, with 46% giving the government excellent/good ratings compared to 26% poor/terrible. In roughly a month, the government net score on that item has gone from -8 to +20.

ELECTION SETTING: LIBERALS VERSUS CONSERVATIVES

As election speculation is heating up, we thought it would be useful to compare the situation between the two largest parties in the House today, with where things were before an election call in 2019.

The Liberals trailed by 4 heading into that election, compared to a 10-point lead today. Today’s approval rating for the Trudeau government is 9 points higher than it was in 2019. Impressions of PM Trudeau are 5 points better this year, while impressions of Mr. O’Toole are 14 points lower than they were for Mr. Scheer.

Finally, in August 2019, 53% of voters were determined to see a change in government, today that number is 38%.

A FEW OTHER THINGS WORTH HIGHLIGHTING

SPECTRUM BATTLES

Among self-described left of centre voters, the Liberals have 53% support followed by the NDP at 31% the Conservatives 5%, the Green Party 4% and the BQ 6%.

Among the self-described right of centre voters, the Conservatives have 67% of the vote, followed by the Liberals 14% the NDP 6%, the Peoples’ Party 7%.

Among the largest block of voters, who self-describe as on the centre of the spectrum, the Liberals lead with 36% followed by the Conservatives at 22%, the NDP at 14%, the BQ 15%.

VISIBLE MINORITY

Among those who self describe as visible minority, the Liberals (44%) have a 22-point lead over the Conservatives (22%), followed by the NDP (20%).

URBAN AND RURAL

Among those who live in urban areas the Liberals (38%) have a 15-point lead over the Conservatives (23%), followed by the NDP (20%). In suburban Canada the Liberals lead by 10-points (38%-28%-16%). In rural areas, the Conservatives and Liberals are tied at 33%.

VACCINES AND VOTING INTENTIONS

Among those who have been fully vaccinated the Liberals (42%) have a 13-point lead over the Conservatives (29%), followed by the NDP (16%). Among those who have had one shot the Liberals (39%) have a 16-point lead over the Conservatives (23%), followed by the NDP (22%).

Among those who have had no shots to this point in time, the Conservatives (31%) lead the Liberals (29%) and the NDP (13%) and Greens (9%).

LEADER IMPRESSIONS

Justin Trudeau’s net image (positive impression minus negative impression) in the three biggest seat provinces is +2 in BC, 0 in Ontario and -4 in Quebec. He is +82 among his own party supporters, -5 among NDP voters, and -69 among Conservative voters. Trudeau is -6 among voters under 30.

Jagmeet Singh’s net image in the three biggest seat provinces is +24 in BC, +11 in Ontario and -1 in Quebec. He is +77 among his own party supporters, +24 among Liberal voters, and -38 among Conservative voters. Singh is +36 among voters under 30, and +16 among women.

Erin O’Toole’s net image in the three biggest seat provinces is -20 in BC, -23 in Ontario and -23 in Quebec. He is +55 among his own party supporters, -61 among NDP voters, and -51 among Liberal voters. O’Toole is -23 among voters under 30. He is -13 in Alberta, -20 in Sask/Manitoba, and -27 among men. He is -20 in rural Canada and -23 in urban areas.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “As summer arrives and vaccinations continue to reach more and more people, the Liberals are seeing some wind in their sails. For the Conservatives, the data suggest a continuing struggle to find a message that is compelling or an issue that is galvanizing for them. Their support is softer in the Prairies and rivals on the right are making it more difficult for Mr. O’Toole to fashion a story of momentum, or to find a platform that is uniting western and eastern conservatives, and captivating for non-conservatives. The NDP continues to pose a challenge for the Liberals, especially among younger voters. But for the moment, anyway, progress in ending the pandemic is the focal point for most voters and this is working to ease frustrations with and grow support for the Liberals.”

According to David Coletto: “The Liberals have opened up their largest lead over the Conservatives in three months built on a higher approval rating for the government overall, improving impressions about its handling of the pandemic, and worsening impressions of Mr. O’Toole and the Conservatives. If an election does come this summer, the Liberals are in a much stronger position than they were prior to the start of the 2019 campaign.”

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 2,070  Canadian adults from June 18 to 21, 2021. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

Find out more about what we are doing to help clients respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

We just completed a national survey of 1,500 Canadian adults (from June 10 to 16, 2021).

Here’s what the survey found:

NATIONAL MOOD CONTINUES TO IMPROVE

There is a continuing upswing in the number of people who say Canada is heading in the right direction, from an ebb of 33% on April 21st to today’s level of 47%. The number of people who say the country is off on the wrong track is 35%, with 18% unsure one way or the other.

“Right track” perceptions are the plurality view everywhere except in the Prairie provinces. Demographically the only group that stands out with a plurality “wrong direction” view is women under 30 (32% right direction – 35% wrong direction).

CURRENT VOTING INTENTION

If an election were held now, the Liberals would win 34% of the vote, the Conservatives 29%, the NDP 21%, the Green Party 6% and the BQ 35% in Quebec. The NDP is up 5-points since the beginning of the month thanks to a spike in the Prairies.

In BC we see a continuing three-way battle.

The Conservatives continue to hold wide leads in the Prairies, although seeing the NDP at 28% in Alberta and 32% in Saskatchewan/Manitoba is worth noting.

The Liberals have a 12-point lead in Ontario, are deadlocked with the BQ in Quebec, and hold a 16-point lead in Atlantic Canada.

Among women under 30, the NDP leads the Liberals by 11 points. Among women aged 30 to 44, the Liberals trail both the Conservatives and the NDP.

LEADER IMPRESSIONS

Justin Trudeau enjoys a positive impression among 39% and finds negative impressions among 39%, for a net score of 0. Trudeau is -2 among women under 30. He is -11 in BC, +5 in Ontario, +20 in Quebec, and +11 in Atlantic Canada.

Erin O’Toole enjoys a positive impression among 19% and finds negative impressions among 36%, for a net score of -17. O’Toole is -21 in BC, -6 in Alberta, -19 in Man/Sask, -20 in Ontario, -16 in Quebec and -18 in Atlantic Canada. He is -18 among men and -17 among women. Among 2019 Conservative voters 56% express a positive view with 26% neutral and 10% negative.

Jagmeet Singh enjoys a positive impression among 32% and finds negative impressions among 26% for a net +6. Singh is +6 in BC, -3 in Alberta, +7 in Man/Sask, +16 in Ontario, -4 in Quebec and +1 in Atlantic Canada. He is 0 among men and +12 among women, including +32 among women under 30.

Asked which of the national party leaders they would like to see become Prime Minister after the next election, Mr. Trudeau is the choice of 30%, Mr. O’Toole (20%) and Mr. Singh (16%).

On this question, Mr. Singh is the first choice of voters under 30 and the second choice of voters 30-44.

Among all women voters, Mr. Trudeau is the first choice of 29%, with Mr. O’Toole and Mr. Singh tied at 18%.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “As speculation about a late summer election heats up, these numbers offer mixed signals for the Liberals, flashing risk signals for the Conservatives, and plenty of opportunity for the NDP.  BC, Quebec, and voters under 45, maybe especially those under 30 – these look to be the key battlegrounds in a campaign in the near term.  Mr. Singh’s opportunity underscores that there is a lot of demand for progressive policy and that he has made a connection with younger voters.  The warning signs for Mr. O’Toole are about tepid feelings for him among Conservative voters, and at the same time, he hasn’t been able to attract much interest from swing voters around the centre of the spectrum.  These numbers do not offer the Liberals a clear path to a majority – especially given the tightness of the contest with the BQ in Quebec and the wandering gaze of younger voters towards the NDP.”

According to David Coletto: “As the summer is set to begin and talk of a late summer or early fall election call grows, the political environment remains quite competitive. The Liberals have an advantage but their support among younger women looks quite tenuous in our data.

The NDP has gained quite a bit of ground in the Prairies while the Conservatives remain stuck at around 30% – a place they have been for quite some time in our tracking.

An improving mood has not translated into more support for the incumbents which might foretell how Canadians could react if asked to vote in an election later this year.”

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from June 10 to 16, 2021. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

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