Each day during the 2021 Federal Election campaign, researchers at Abacus Data will share insights and analysis from our polling in concise, insights-focused reports. To never miss our polls and analysis, subscribe to our newsletter.

Elections often feel like a referendum on the previous 4 years, or in this case 2 years. A choice between “kicking the bums out” or acknowledging that we are better off than perhaps we would be otherwise. So what role does voter emotion play in election campaigns and outcome? Are Canadians happy or unhappy with where we are now?

With the first week of the campaign underway, in the books, the average happiness score is 64.8 out of 100. Our overall happiness is consistently higher than it was last fall and winter. While this is good news for the incumbent party, as it may indicate a potential “reward” for getting us through the pandemic so far.

Happiness and Political Engagement Go Together

It turns out that political participation is related to happiness. The average happiness score for people who didn’t vote in 2019 is 55.1; a full ten points lower than the average Canadian. Voters for the smaller parties are also less happy now. Those who voted Liberal, Conservative and BQ in 2019 are the most happy now. NDP voters in the last election are, however, a major party of voters who are not happy right now.

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While we don’t know if their unhappiness caused them to not vote, unhappiness, it appears, is part of a disengagement with community. Those who don’t trust other people are much less happy. The happiness score for those who trust other people always is 76.0. This is 24 points higher than for people who never trust other people.

While unhappiness may be a motivator to act for change, it also appears (perhaps over time) to disengage Canadians from the political process. This is important because of the very strong relationship between age and happiness. Older Canadians are much more happy than those under 30 years of age.

UPSHOT

According to Richard Jenkins: The improved positive emotion that Canadians have now compared with the pandemic offers the incumbent some good news. The three big questions are: (1) Will young people punish the incumbent as a reflection of their relative unhappiness or will they simply disengage? (2) Does the relative happiness of Conservative voters from 2019 offer the Liberals a chance to convert them to Liberal voters in 2021? (3) Will the unhappiness of NDP voters from 2019 lead to NDP gains?

We know that emotion will be central the happiness levels of different kinds of voters are likely to impact the strategies that parties use to activate them and get them to vote.

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 2000 Canadians aged 18 and over from August 17 to 22, 2021. A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20. In Canada the data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

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ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

Find out more about what we are doing to help clients respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

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Each day during the 2021 Federal Election campaign, researchers at Abacus Data will share insights and analysis from our polling in concise, insights-focused reports. To never miss our polls and analysis, subscribe to our newsletter.

Yesterday we examined “Despite O’Toole” Tory voters and what made them unique. What jumped out most was not that they exist, but how many of them there were in the current CPC vote, especially compared to substantial pro-Singh and pro-Trudeau enthusiasm among NDP and Liberal voters.

Is this something that can be reasonably expected to evolve for Mr. O’Toole? By no means a comprehensive analysis, we looked to see how the Prime Minister’s experience tracked in each election prior, being the only candidate with more than 2 federal elections under his belt. We examined polling results recorded at the start of each respective campaign period for 2015 and 2019 to see how they compared to the strong relationship between his reputation and vote intention today.

Of the waves sampled, Justin Trudeau’s vote has always had strong synergies with his personal popularity, with both his 2015 and 2019 LPC voting bloc seeing strong affect for the Prime Minister. Today’s LPC vote is even more associated with the Prime Minister than it was before (+6 % pts view him positively).

I don’t interpret these data points to mean anything particularly good or bad for the Prime Minister, only to say that there is some evidence that a vote for LPC has been more about PM Trudeau personally, and that any possible phenomenon of LPC voters holding their nose to vote for the PM because of a “big L” Liberal brand loyalty seems both scarce historically and in the present day.

That said, though “Despite Trudeau” voters are few and far between, they exist. And their foundational political perspective is that the Liberal option is better than alternative. Few are unhappy with what the Liberals are done, but they are far less likely to say the Trudeau has done a good job overall. They accept a mixed record and are willing to park with the LPC for now.

What to make of all this? The early data suggests that the Liberals’ existing support may be stickier than what O’Toole’s team is working with. That doesn’t mean he’ll never beat Trudeau’s popular vote. It only means existing Liberal voters – wholly 33% of the voting public – today have maintained a fondness for the Prime Minister through significant tenure with a fair share of scandals.

It’s worth acknowledging that there are many who dislike the Prime Minister and have removed themselves entirely from the Liberal camp to begin with, no doubt driven to other political homes. And there are, to be sure, plenty of voters to steal from all across the political spectrum. Yet having the majority of the 33% of voters who would vote Liberal today comprised of Justin Trudeau enthusiasts will make stealing vote share from the governing party a bit harder than might otherwise be the case.

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1500 Canadian adults from August 9^th to 12^th, 2021. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

Find out more about what we are doing to help clients respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Each day during the 2021 Federal Election campaign, researchers at Abacus Data will share insights and analysis from our polling in concise, insights-focused reports. To never miss our polls and analysis, subscribe to our newsletter.

If you’ve spent some time in our parliamentary democracy, you’ll have caught on that power is centralized here. Very centralized.

A lot of that centralization happens around whoever is Prime Minister, who at some point in their career is an optimistic party leader trying to become one. It follows that voters for any given political party, come election time, are motivated to do so because of who is on top, with their view of the leader’s personality and values being the primary if not a strong tertiary driver of their vote intention.

Things don’t always play out that way. Looking at this year’s 3 main hopefuls we see one sticks out as the least established among his own support base; Erin O’Toole. While this is often experienced by new entrants who don’t have ancient pedigrees or a previous election to solidify their reputations, 1/3^rd of CPC’s present-day voters are either O’Toole agnostic or antagonistic. In other words, they either have a negative view of him, are neutral, or don’t really know what to think. This is in notable contrast to both Justin Trudeau and Jagmeet Singh, most of whose voters are fond of their party leaders.

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THE DESPITE O’TOOLE VOTER

These “Despite O’Toole” voters are the fresher faces of the party base. The vast majority – 8 in 10 – are under the age of 60.  Half have the LPC or NDP as their 2^nd choice, and when we ask them about their ideal outcome for this election, a substantial proportion aren’t even looking for a Conservative majority government. In part, despite their present vote orientation, most assume the CPC won’t win at all, be it minority or majority. This is a striking attitudinal departure from O’Toole friendly voters, most of whom assume the CPC will win this time around.

Underscoring these views is a softer loyalty to the party. 2 in 3 of these CPC voters say they are either likely to change their vote (30%) or merely “somewhat unlikely” (39%).

They align with other CPC voters on most issues, including their priorities this election. They primarily are concerned about the cost of living and seeing a credible economic plan this campaign. And they like other brands of Conservatism, just not O’Toole’s. On average Premier Ford is more popular with this group than the federal CPC leader, with 70% feeling outright positively (30%) or neutral (39%) about the well-known Premier of Ontario.

Fundamentally they view the Conservative Party and where Erin O’Toole is taking it through a different lens than other Tory voters. Most of these voters reject that the CPC has the best outlook and ideas of all the parties, with most instead having concerns about where they would take the country should they get elected.

There’s enough of a pull towards the party that these younger Canadians would opt for the Conservatives over the Liberals and NDP, but they aren’t entirely confident in their choice. One of O’Toole’s many challenges will be not to lose these fair-weather Conservatives and convince them that the party leadership does have the plan and credibility to carry the country through an unprecedented economic and health crisis. Or at the very least to present one that consistently looks better than what the Prime Minister has had on offer.

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1500 Canadian adults from August 9^th to 12^th, 2021. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

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ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

Find out more about what we are doing to help clients respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

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Each day during the 2021 Federal Election campaign, researchers at Abacus Data will share insights and analysis from our polling in concise, insights-focused reports. To never miss our polls and analysis, subscribe to our newsletter.

Keeping with our weekly theme of top election issues, we wanted to know if there were any difference between men and women. As a note, the analysis below compares just men vs women as sample sizes for others were too small for analysis.

Unsurprisingly, cost of living tops the list for both men and women, though more women are including it in their top 5 than men (64% vs. 59%).

The differences between what men and women are prioritizing don’t end there. In addition to cost of living, women are prioritizing healthcare more than men, while men tend to be more likely to prioritize issues like an economic plan for Canada’s future, taxes, and government spending.

Does age have any impact on how men and women view the top issues?

Among the boomer generation, men and women have the same top five issues, but for four of them, place very different levels of importance on each. Among the top 5 issues, boomer women are more likely to prioritize cost of living, access to healthcare, climate change & the environment and the post-pandemic recovery plan. While men are distributing their priorities a little more evenly throughout the list, and placing more priority on taxes, government spending and pipelines.

And for millennials? There are some differences between men and women for sure, but they are not as stark as those seen among boomers.

Among millennials, women are more likely than men to be prioritizing cost of living and access to healthcare, and men are more likely to prioritize an economic plan for Canada’s recovery, but that’s where the large differences end. It seems that among this generation specific age is a better determinant of issue prioritization than gender.

THE UPSHOT According to Oksana Kishchuk: Like much of our other analysis, cost of living continues its dominant position as the top election issue, including both men and women. Still, it’s important to note it is a priority for more women than men.

This difference, and many of the other differences we see between men and women are not surprising, and in fact look very similar to numbers we saw just before the federal election in 2019. During that election we also saw women prioritizing healthcare and climate change more than men, and men more likely to prioritize taxes and government spending.

Given that these priorities have held steadfast for many years, and even through a pandemic, it’s likely that they will more or less remain the same throughout the campaign. Knowing this, we will be watching closely to see how each of the parties try to sell their ideas, especially those that are more of a priority for one gender than another.

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 3,000 Canadian adults from August 6 to 11, 2021. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.8%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

Find out more about what we are doing to help clients respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Each day during the 2021 Federal Election campaign, researchers at Abacus Data will share insights and analysis from our polling in concise, insights-focused reports. To never miss our polls and analysis, subscribe to our newsletter.

Prior to the pandemic, and even before, the political environment has been ripe for affordability to not only dominate a federal election, but drive sharp generational divides. As just one example, when baby boomers were young adults it took them an average of 5 years of full-time work to save for a 20% down payment, compared to today where it will take young adults 14 years of full-time work. As the election kicks off the data from our pre-election survey is no different.

To start, cost of living makes an appearance in almost every generations list of top five issues.

The silent generation is the only one to have cost of living fall below their top 5 issues. Those in this older generation are prioritizing issues like climate change, access to healthcare, and plans for the future.  While no party seems to be catering to this generation specifically, the issues the parties have focused on so far are more or less the top issues for these individuals.

Next up is the baby boomer generation, the top issues look fairly similar though cost of living has been shuffled to the top of the list, and by a large margin.

For boomers, cost of living, healthcare, climate change and the environment, and recovery plans are in the top 5 issues. Percentages aside, their top 5 list mirrors that of the average Canadian.

For Gen X voters, the list looks fairly similar, but cost of living continues to grow in importance.

Two thirds of Gen X voters place cost of living in their top 5 issues, and it has a sizable lead over any other issues in their top 5. Gen X (those 56 to 41 years old) likely have very different cost of living worries than millennials: think supporting children vs. purchasing a first home. Still, the importance of cost of living for this demographic is a reminder of how important cost of living is in this election.

Finally, millennials. Cost of living tops their list, and by an even greater margin. Among this generation, there is a 25-point gap between cost of living and the second most important issue, suggesting this is both a very important issue for this generation, but also the uniting issue across the generation.

Millennials may be the largest voting bloc but they are also the generation that spans the widest array of life stages. Some millennials are nearing 40, onto their second homes, have kids that are nearly teenagers, and are carrying all the costs associated with all these life events. Others are unemployed new grads with student loans, staring down a volatile housing market, but currently have less financial pressures on them when it comes to their own expenses and perhaps more optimism about the future.

Looking at the data these priorities are reflected fairly well. Cost of living is still a top issue for both older and younger millennials (and Gen Z), but younger millennials and Gen Z are in fact placing more importance on the social issues we might expect younger people to be passionate about.

On social issues we see some pretty significant differences on climate change & the environment, poverty and inequality, and reconciliation with indigenous peoples (all are more important for younger millennials + Gen Z). And on the other end, older millennials are more concerned with taxes, and government spending.

Still, what unites this generation and sets it apart from others is cost of living. Millennials as a whole are almost entirely aligned with boomers on social issues like climate change & the environment and indigenous reconciliation, and even on housing (only 1 or 2 points different). But with cost of living, there is a 19-point gap between the percentage of boomers that placed this as a top 5 issue, and the percentage of millennials.

THE UPSHOT According to Oksana Kishchuk: The millennials that helped secure the Liberal win in 2015 have grown up. For older millennials they’ve had six more years to pay taxes, watch government spending and compare it to their own life expenses, and attempt to secure a starter home that will help catapult them through the housing market instead of set them back.

And for younger millennials (and Gen Z) they’ve evaluated progress on climate change commitments, read the news about unmarked graves from residential schools and seen inequality in Canada rise from pandemic impacts.

The Trudeau Liberals are once again attempting to capture these two sides of the young voter – trying to position themselves as the party fighting for the middle class to quell affordability concerns and the party fighting for social issues, namely climate change. But two weeks, never mind six years, can change things in politics.

Our latest numbers show the NDP, who are focusing heavily on the millennial vote by promising social policies to address affordability, have a slight lead over the Liberals among young voters.

And the Conservatives, despite low polling numbers among young voters, could capture these voters using their fiscal solutions for addressing affordability and cost of living.

As parties continue to roll out their messaging and platforms on Canadians top issues we will continue to monitor the moods of each generation, and how they feel throughout the campaign.

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 3,000 Canadian adults from August 6 to 11, 2021. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.8%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

Find out more about what we are doing to help clients respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Each day during the 2021 Federal Election campaign, researchers at Abacus Data will share insights and analysis from our polling in concise, insights-focused reports. To never miss our polls and analysis, subscribe to our newsletter.

This election season comes at a critical moment for Canadians. As we continue the fight against COVID-19, we’ve seen Indigenous peoples from across the nation call for accountability in the wake of mass gravesite discoveries, countless Black Canadians take to the streets in protest of police brutality, and many conversations and conflicts regarding the national housing crisis. As people across the nation fight for a better Canada, this election provides an opportunity to make meaningful change for all – Including LGBTQ2S+ communities.

LGBTQ2S+ communities across Canada have a unique outlook on our nation and politics. Having experienced a different life than many other Canadians, LGBTQ2S+ communities across the nation have struggled and persevered in ways others might not have had to. Similarly, the LGBTQ2S+ community and its allies hold a truly unique perspective when it comes to voting in federal elections.

In our pre-election survey (conducted August 6 to 11 with 3,000 Canadians overall, 259 of which self-identified as LGBTQ2S+), we find that among the LGBTQ2S+ community, the NDP lead by 5-points over the Liberals. The LGBTQ2S+ community is twice as likely to vote for the NDP, and half as likely to vote for the Conservatives than the general population. Interestingly, the Liberal vote remains consistent between Canadians overall and the LGBTQ2S+ community. It is important to note that this sample is much younger than the general population, which most likely explains their views on the NDP and Jagmeet Singh.

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Vote drivers differ slightly among the LGBTQ2S+ community when compared to the general population. Cost of living (63%), climate change and the environment(57%), and poverty and inequality (56%) are the top vote drivers for LGBTQ2S+ Canadians. Among the general population, cost of living (61%), Access to health care (47%), and climate change and the environment (45%) top the list of vote drivers. Interestingly, taxes and government spending were significantly lower drivers for those in the LGBTQ2S+ community on average.

LEADER IMPRESSIONS

It is also the case that LGBTQ2S+ communities across Canada have a unique perception of their political leaders. Among these communities, Singh is a stand-out favourite, with 63% holding a positive impression of him. This is followed by Trudeau (38%), Paul (19%), and O’Toole (11%) respectively.

Among all the leaders, Jagmeet Singh has the highest net positive impression at +49. Positive impressions are highest among previous NDP voters, Males aged 18-29, Females aged 30-44, and those living in Ontario.

Justin Trudeau enjoys a positive impression among 38% and negative impressions among 36%, for a net score of +2. Positive impressions are significantly higher among males aged 30-44.

Erin O’Toole enjoys a positive impression among 11% and negative impressions among 55%, for a net score of -44. Females aged 60+, Males aged 30-44, and those living in Atlantic Canada are among the most likely to hold a positive impression of O’Toole.

UPSHOT

Although the Liberals have been leading the polls recently, vote intention and the impressions of political leaders among the LGBTQ2S+ community we surveyed paint a different picture.

Jagmeet Singh and the NDP have clearly built a strong affinity among the LGBTQ2S+ community while the Conservatives struggle to even register with this community.

With an estimated 900,000 LGBTQ2S+ Canadians and countless allies across the nation, will this be enough to sway the vote?

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 3,000 Canadian adults from August 6 to 11, 2021. A total of  A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.8%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

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ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

Find out more about what we are doing to help clients respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

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We just completed a national survey of 1,500 Canadian adults (August 12 to 16) with about 30% of the interviews done after the election announcement on Sunday.

Here’s what we are seeing:

MOOD OF THE COUNTRY

There’s been a five-point drop in the number of Canadians feeling the country is headed in the right direction, as the number of COVID cases rise over the last week. Now, 41% feel the country is headed in the right direction while 42% feel it’s off on the wrong track.

Views about the direction of the US and the world also have become more negative since last week as events in Afghanistan and the 4th wave in the US dominate news coverage.

FEELINGS ABOUT THE PANDEMIC

This downward shift in mood is likely attributable to growing concerns about the COVID-19 pandemic. When asked whether they are getting more or less worried about the pandemic over the past few days, 38% say they are getting more worried – up 5-points in a week, and 23-points in a month. Today, 24% believe the worst of the pandemic is still to come (a 9-point increase in a month).

GOVERNMENT APPROVAL

Today 44% approve of the job being done by the Trudeau government, while 41% disapprove – a 4-point increase in those disapproving over the past week.

LEADER IMPRESSIONS

Justin Trudeau enjoys a positive impression among 40% and negative impressions among 44%, for a net score of -3. Negative impressions of Mr. Trudeau are up 3-points since last week.

Jagmeet Singh enjoys a positive impression among 39% and finds negative impressions among 24% for a net +15. Impressions of Mr. Singh are largely unchanged from last week.

Erin O’Toole enjoys a positive impression among 20% and finds negative impressions among 41%, for a net score of -21. Impressions of Mr. O’Toole are also largely unchanged from last week.

HOW DOES THIS TRANSLATE INTO VOTE INTENTION?

If an election were held now, the Liberals would win 33% of the vote (down 4 from our last measurement point), the Conservatives 28% (unchanged), the NDP 22% (up 2), the Green Party 5% (unchanged) and the BQ at 31% in Quebec (9-points higher than in our last survey).

• In BC, we find a three-way race with the Liberals at 31%, the Conservatives at 30%, and the NDP at 29%. The Greens are at 7%.

• In Alberta, 39% would vote Conservative compared with 29% for the NDP and 23% for the Liberals, and 6% for the People’s Party.

• In Manitoba and Saskatchewan, the Conservatives lead the Liberals and NDP by almost 30 points, 48% to 19% and 19%.

• The Liberals (with 36%) have a 6-point lead over the Conservatives (30%) in Ontario, with the NDP at 24% and the Green Party at 5%. The People’s Party is at 5% in Ontario.

• In Quebec, we see the Liberals with 34%, followed by the BQ (31%), the Conservatives (14%) and the NDP at 10%. The Greens are at 8% in Quebec.

• In the Atlantic provinces, the Liberals (47%) are well ahead of the NDP (26%) and the Conservatives (20%).

We are also testing levels of motivation, by asking people how likely they are to turn out and cast a ballot on election day. Among the 70% of respondents who said they would definitely be voting, the Liberals lead by a 3-point margin: 33% Liberal, 30% Conservative, 21% NDP, 8% BQ and 4% Green. 3% would vote for the People’s Party.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “We’ll evaluate events on a continuous basis during this sprint to Election Day. At this point, I’m hesitant to conclude anything about a shift in mood, we’re in the middle of summer, engagement levels are uncertain, and parties and leaders have only begun to make their pitches. I’ll continue to watch for the same things – will Jagmeet Singh be able to turn interest in him into capturing Liberal votes in key battleground regions, will Erin O’Toole be able to overcome hesitancy about his party and himself personally and will Justin Trudeau make a persuasive and galvanizing case for the policy choices he’s advocating especially around vaccines and affordable child care.

According to David Coletto: “Within a few weeks, a 12-point Liberal lead has shrunk to a 5-point lead as the race in Ontario and BC has tightened. The NDP has gained a few points while the Conservatives remain stuck just below 30%.

Given that only a portion of this survey was done after the election call, it’s too early to say whether the opposition parties’ criticism of the early election call is having much impact, but there’s some indication that the rise of COVID-19 cases is increasing anxiety and the mood of the public seems to be shifting.

This shift may ultimately play to the Liberal Party’s advantage as previous research has found most think the government has handled the pandemic well and support for vaccine mandates is strong across the country. It might expose it to concerns about holding an election during the 4th wave of the pandemic.”

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from August 12 to 16, 2021. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

The survey was commissioned and paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Each day during the 2021 Federal Election campaign, researchers at Abacus Data will share insights and analysis from our polling in concise, insights-focused reports. To never miss our polls and analysis, subscribe to our newsletter.

Although many Canadians say they are financially better off or have not been impacted by the pandemic, the cost of living is clearly the top issue for most people as this election campaign kicks off.

Last week we released some new data with the Broadbent Institute and the Professional Institute of the Public Service of Canada about the role affordability, tax fairness, and paying for the pandemic may have in the campaign.

In our own pre-election survey, we find that 62% of respondents ranked the cost of living as one of the top 5 issues that will drive their vote this election. This is higher than any other issue and has increased by 7-points since this point of the 2019 federal election campaign.

But the cost of living isn’t the only “affordability” issue respondents rank high. We also see taxes, housing, and the cost of prescription drugs as being important to at least 1 in 4 eligible voters.

A recent study we did for the Ontario Real Estate Association finds that housing affordability is a top issue for people in Ontario and a sizeable portion of young residents are reconsidering where they live with many looking to leave the big cities or the province altogether.

And the power of affordability as an issue is that it crosses the political spectrum. It is the top issue for Conservative and NDP voters and the second-highest among Liberal voters (climate change is the top issue for Liberals – more to come on that later this week).

UPSHOT

Affordability may not ultimately become the ballot question in this campaign, but there’s no doubt that Canadians are feeling the squeeze as prices for almost everything rise due to supply shortages and other macroeconomic factors.

Political leaders and candidates can expect to be asked their plans on the cost of living as household budgets get squeezed and perceptions of this problem increase. In this environment, there’s absolutely no appetite for tax increases (except on the wealthiest Canadians).

For businesses and associations that represent them, there will be pressure on policymakers to ease this pressure and as we have found in the past, there’s broad support for policy tools that force companies to lower their prices.

The 2019 campaign started as the affordability election. Will the 2021 one repeat that?

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 3,000 Canadian adults from August 6 to 11, 2021. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.8%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

Find out more about what we are doing to help clients respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Each day during the 2021 Federal Election campaign, researchers at Abacus Data will share insights and analysis from our polling in concise, insights-focused reports. To never miss our polls and analysis, subscribe to our newsletter.

Let’s face it, apart from political junkies like me, most people don’t love politics. Elections matter but some elections are more interesting than others. Some are close and the outcome unpredictable. Others have a defining issue that galvanizes voters and spikes interest. Others are change elections that mobilize voters to “throw the bums out” while others feature dynamic, new political leaders that excite voters.

Will voters be engaged or not in this election?

In our pre-election survey of 3,000 Canadians, we asked how interested respondents were in the upcoming election on a scale from 1 to 10.

Overall, interest in this election appears as high as measured in the second week of the 2019 campaign.

70% of respondents said they have a high level of interest (7 to 10) while another 21% said they were moderately interested (4 to 6) while 9% said they had little interest in the campaign (1 to 3).

Back in September 2019, 69% said they had a high interest in the campaign. So early indications are that Canadians are as engaged as they were back in 2019 despite it being in summer and perhaps because it’s coming in the midst of a global pandemic.

Our survey finds that older Canadians are more interested than younger Canadians while those planning to vote Liberal or Conservative are more likely to have high interest than those planning to vote NDP, Green, or Bloc Quebecois.

UPSHOT

Too often pundits and commentators decry the lack of interest in politics or suggest that interest in any given election will be low without evidence to back up their claim.

I recall this happening during the 2019 campaign.

But early indications from our research suggest that Canadians are as interested in this election as they were back in 2019. That could change of course – interest could increase or dissipate as the campaign progresses.

Interest in the election and politics more generally matters a lot. It impacts voter turnout (definitely read this book about it), it could impact differential turnout (supporters of certain parties being more motivated to vote than others), and it impacts how people react to campaign events. An electorate engaged in a campaign will be paying closer attention and therefore could react more to the campaign.

More importantly this time, despite a summer election call in the midst of the 4th wave of COVID-19 cases, most Canadians say they are at least moderately interested in this campaign.

Let’s not assume no one is paying attention. The Trump era in the US taught us that elections and politics matter. Canadians are paying attention, so far, this time.

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 3,000 Canadian adults from August 6 to 11, 2021. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.8%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

Find out more about what we are doing to help clients respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.