Assessment of the Trudeau Government at Year End

OVERALL APPROVAL OF THE TRUDEAU GOVERNMENT

Across the country, 42% approve of the performance of the Trudeau government, and 39% disapprove. Approval is down 3 points since November while disapproval is up five points. Since March 2018, the government’s approval rating has hovered between 42% and 45% with disapproval ranging from 34% to 41%.

The national numbers conceal crucial regional differences. In Alberta, disapproval runs at 57%; in most other parts of the country, it is well below 50% including in BC, Ontario, and Quebec.

The government’s performance is viewed positively by 60% of those who identify on the left of the spectrum and 39% of those in the centre. Only one in four of those on the right side of spectrum approve of the Trudeau government’s performance.

In the 78 swing ridings that were won by margins of 5% or less in the last election, approval is 41%, disapproval is 40%. In those seats, in 2015, the Liberals won 37% of the vote followed by the Conservatives at 29% and the NDP at 23%.

DETAILED ASSESSMENTS OF TRUDEAU GOVERNMENT PERFORMANCE

We asked people to describe their feelings about the performance of the government on 12 separate topics. Here’s what the results revealed:

• In all cases, a majority of respondents judged the government’s performance as either good or acceptable.

• Poor and very poor ratings ranged from a low of 28% on gender issues to highs of 43%-49% on immigration, deficits, handling tax dollars and the TMX pipeline. It is worthwhile to bear in mind that roughly 60% of this sample did not vote Liberal in 2015.

• The strongest positives for Mr. Trudeau were for representing Canada internationally, gender issues, the personal values he brings to the job, climate change policy, his dealing with Donald Trump, and his handling of NAFTA.

• Ratings for the government’s handling of the TMX pipeline reflect an unusual alignment of anti-pipe and pro-pipe voters. Poor ratings are offered by 42% of those on the left, and 55% of those on the right.

In looking to see what has changed over time, we compared results with a similar battery asked in March of 2016.

We see that Mr. Trudeau’s ratings for handling the economy have not changed all that much. His negatives on handling the deficit have inched upwards and his positive ratings have shifted down by 9 points

On all of the other items tracked back to 2016, Mr. Trudeau’s negatives have risen by 17 to 19 points.

LINKAGES WITH SOCIAL PERSPECTIVES

Examining some of the other linkages in our study reveals that disapproval of the Trudeau government is not only a function of policy evaluations but is linked to negative opinions towards the news media, gay people, people of colour, Muslims. Disapproval of the Trudeau government is higher among people who hold the following views:

• 10 points higher among those who say abortion should be against the law
• 14 points higher among those who say being gay is a choice that should be discouraged
• 17 points higher among those who think the news media is the enemy of the people of Canada
• 19 points higher among those who “fed up with all the emphasis on promoting women’s interests”.
• 24 points higher among those who think Canada would be better off if it was more white
• 25 points higher among those who say Canada would be better off if there were no Muslims here

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “Overall assessments of the Trudeau government have deteriorated from early measurements in the honeymoon months right after the election of 2015.

At the same time, in most parts of the country and on most issues, dissatisfaction levels are below 50% suggesting that a fair number of voters who didn’t vote for this government are not particularly unhappy with what they have seen.

The most challenging issues for the government are immigration, deficits, spending and it also appears that the TM pipeline issue is creating friction for the government on both the left and the right.

An interesting signal for Liberal election planners is that the government is well regarded among self-identified left of centre voters, but opinion is more mixed among the broad swath of voters who consider themselves centrists.

Finally, it is clear that some of whatever antipathy there is to Mr. Trudeau has something to do with deeper social tensions.

The Prime Minister is particularly disliked among those who would prefer a white Canada, with no Muslims, less emphasis on women’s interests, less acceptance of homosexuality. He is harshly viewed by those who would like a Canadian Trump and who see the media as the enemy of the people.

We will put out more data on these social divisions in the days to come, but it is worth noting that these views, while the minority, are held by more than a tiny fraction of the population: 27% say the media is the enemy of the people, 25% say Canada would be better off with no Muslims, 22% say Canada would be better off if it was more white, 19% say abortion should be against the law.”

According to David Coletto: The Trudeau government’s approval numbers have deteriorated in the final month of the year after seeing some improvement over the summer and into the fall months.

Negative assessments of the PM’s performance have increased most two high profile areas: climate change policy and the way the PM has represented Canada internationally.

We know from previous research that the Prime Minister’s trip to India had a seriously negative impact on his ratings in this area. While they have recovered somewhat, they are still far from what we found in March 2016.

But when it comes to climate change policy, his negative assessments have doubled.

Looking closer at who disapproves of the PM’s climate policy, surprisingly, it’s not just Conservative supporters. In fact, only 53% of current Conservative supporters feel the PM is doing a poor job on climate change and greenhouse gases. One in three NDP supporters and 46% of Green Party supporters also think he’s performing poorly on the file.

Looking at it another way, 68% of those who think the PM is doing poorly on climate change also think climate change is a crisis that demands action and among those group, 58% support either the Liberal, New Democratic, BQ, or Green parties.

As much as he’s received pushback by those who might want him to do less, or at least oppose the federal government’s carbon pricing policy, there are many who also feel he and the government have not done enough on the issue.

Going into 2019, the Trudeau government will need to find a way to keep its progressive and environmentalist coalition together while attracting those in the centre that are looking for a policy approach that is measured and reasonable on issues around climate, economic and fiscal management, and cost of living.”

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 2,000 Canadians aged 18 and over from December 13 to 18, 2018. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian PoliticsMediaPollsTechnology

Canada’s political mood as 2018 comes to an end

As we close out 2018 and look to 2019, we surveyed 2,000 Canadian adults and explored their views on federal politics and how they were feeling about the direction of the country. Here’s the first of a series of releases, detailing what we found:

DIRECTION OF THE COUNTRY

By a seven-point margin, Canadians are more likely to think (42%) the country is headed in the right direction as say it is off on the wrong track (35%).

The results on this question show marked regional differences with a +12 gap in BC, +5 in Ontario, and +23 in Quebec. In Alberta, the net right direction-wrong direction score is -24. Among those on the left of the spectrum, we see a +30, those on the centre +10 and on the right -27.

Millennials feel more optimistic (+26) than Boomers (-7) or Gen Xers (-2).

Compared to the rest of the world, the consensus seems to be things could be worse. Around the world, only 17% see things going in the right direction, while 62% say things are off on the wrong track. “Wrong track” views are up 3 points, just since October.

Canadians are more likely to think things are worse in the US: 72% say the US is off on the wrong track – only 15% think it is heading in the right direction. Interestingly, this perspective among Canadians doesn’t vary all that much across regional or partisan or philosophical lines: 62% of Albertans, 62% of Conservative voters, and 63% of those on the right side of the spectrum think America is heading in the wrong direction. 81% of Liberal supporters feel that way as well.

ACCESSIBLE VOTER POOLS

As the country enters another federal election year, 53% say they would consider voting Liberal, 48% would consider voting Conservative, 43% would consider the NDP, 36% Green, and 18% the People’s Party. In Quebec, 29% would consider voting BQ.

Focusing on the three most populous provinces (which together account for more than a third of the seats in the House of Commons), the Liberals have an accessible pool of 54% in BC, 59% in Ontario and 50% in Quebec. The Conservatives find 48% in BC, 52% in Ontario, and 33% in Quebec. The NDP find 47% in BC, 52% in Ontario, and 37% in Quebec.

In short, the Liberals have a larger accessible voter pool than the Conservatives in BC (gap of 6) in Ontario (gap of 7) and in Quebec (gap of 17).

The decline of NDP consideration in Quebec is all the more striking given that at the start of the 2015 federal election, almost half of Quebecers said they would vote for the NDP, not just consider voting for the party.

Among Millennials, the largest age group in the upcoming election, 59% would consider voting Liberal, 53% NDP, 46% Conservative, 46% Green, 22% People’s Party.

CURRENT VOTING INTENTION

If an election were held tomorrow, 35% say they would vote Liberal, 34% Conservative, 17% NDP, and 7% Green. In Quebec, 17% would vote BQ. At a one-point margin, this is the closest we’ve tracked the Liberals and Conservatives since the last federal election.

Regionally, our latest data shows tight races in BC and Ontario, strong leads Conservative leads in Alberta and Saskatchewan, and significant Liberal leads in Quebec and Atlantic Canada.

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is Dec_2018_Politics.jpg

Almost half of those we surveyed say it is very (7%) or somewhat likely (36%) that they could be persuaded to support a different party by election day. This includes 44% among current LPC voters, 56% among current NDP voters, 52% among current Green Party voters, and 33% of current CPC voters.

If Liberal voters were to switch, 36% would move to the Conservatives, 35% to the NDP and 23% to the Green Party.

If Conservative voters were to switch, 40% would move to the Liberal Party, 27% to the NDP and 15% to the Green Party.

If NDP voters were to switch, 45% would migrate to the Liberals, 28% to the Conservatives and 17% to the Greens.

At this point, while the Conservatives are competitive in overall voting intention and have the firmest support, they lag in terms of second choice consideration among voters who might rethink their current intentions.

PREFERRED PRIME MINISTER

When asked which of the party leaders they would prefer to see as Prime Minister after the next election, 45% picked Justin Trudeau, 29% Andrew Scheer, 10% Jagmeet Singh, 10% Elizabeth May and 5% Max Bernier. This is largely unchanged from our last survey.

Mr. Trudeau leads on this question everywhere but in Alberta and Saskatchewan where he trails Mr. Scheer by 16 points, and in Saskatchewan where he trails by 11. Mr. Trudeau’s lead in BC is 11 points, In Manitoba 15, in Ontario 19, in Quebec 24, and in Atlantic Canada 38 points.

Worth noting is that among NDP voters, Trudeau is three times more likely to be preferred as PM compared to Mr. Scheer. Mr. Trudeau also has a significant advantage over Mr. Scheer among Green Party and BQ voters.

Among those who identify as being on the “left” of the spectrum, 59% would prefer Trudeau as PM compared with 16% for Singh, 13% for May, and 10% for Scheer.

PREFERRED ELECTION OUTCOME

Setting aside how they currently intend to vote, 39% say they would prefer to see a Liberal government after the next election, compared to 33% who would like to see the Conservatives win. Just 15% would like to see an NDP government.

In BC the gap is 36-32 in favour of the Liberals, in Ontario 40-34, in Quebec 45-22 and in Atlantic Canada 52-18. More would prefer a Conservative government after the next election in Alberta (55-25) and Saskatchewan (46-25).

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “As was the case in 2015, the country seems to be heading for a competitive race, but so far it looks more like a two-party race than a three-party contest.

The Liberals have considerable regional advantages in Quebec and Atlantic Canada but face a strong challenge from the Conservatives in Ontario and BC.

Under the surface of these voting, intentions lie two potential advantages for the Liberal Party. While party voting intentions show a one-point gap, preferred Prime Minister reveals a 16-point advantage for Mr. Trudeau over Mr. Scheer. In our next release, we will review our latest data on the popularity of the leaders in more detail.

The second potential advantage for the Liberals lies in their lead as a second choice in a market where almost half say they may change their mind before election day. Among NDP, Green, and BQ voters, switching would tend to favour the Liberals over the Tories.

The recent movements are a reminder that no outcome can safely be predicted based on current attitudes – they are but a snapshot of current conditions and tendencies.”

According to David Coletto: “This is the closest federal horserace we’ve measured since the last election.

Thanks to large leads in Quebec and Atlantic Canada and a competitive position in BC and Ontario, the Liberals still have the advantage over the Conservatives. But about a third of former Liberal Party supporters now says they will support another party (26%) or are undecided (11%). Without engaging new voters or converting NDP, Conservative, or Green supporters, the Liberal majority will be difficult to replicate.

Despite a strong end to 2018 for the Conservatives, headwinds remain. The party’s accessible voter pool is smaller and big leads in Alberta and Saskatchewan are wasted when it comes to converting votes into seats. More importantly, fewer Canadians would consider the Conservatives as their second choice, meaning they have to convert far more of their potential supporters than the Liberals do.

Perhaps most challenging for the Conservatives to date is the general mood of the country. While most see danger and discord in the US and around the world, their sense of security at home is stronger. It’s hard to defeat an incumbent government when more feel positive than negative about where the country’s going.”

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 2,000 Canadians aged 18 and over from December 13 to 18, 2018. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian PoliticsMediaPolls

Abacus Data is Looking for an Intern

Winter Semester Internship

Location: Ottawa, ON

Description: 12 to 15 hours per week, from early January to mid-April, possibility of turning into a summer position.

Compensation: $18/hour

 Role:

Abacus Data is looking for an energetic, self-starting university student who is looking for an internship based in Ottawa to support the senior research team.  As a member of our growing team, you will report directly to the Executive Director and work closely on a range of client projects and marketing efforts.

Based in Ottawa, you will be responsible for contributing to all aspects of qualitative and quantitative research projects as well as managing content development on AbacusData.ca and the CanadianMillennials.ca websites.   We are looking for someone with an entrepreneurial spirit who enjoys to write, communicate, and learn about new topics.  A passion for research, politics, and public affairs is definitely an asset.

One of the primary responsibilities of the position will be to conduct in-depth interviews. You will be trained to conduct interviews and be part of our interviewing team.

During the 4-month placement, you will be asked to support our team on a range of projects and work with the team to develop content for public consumption.

Responsibilities:

Support the senior research team in all aspects of the research process including:

Questionnaire and discussion guide development

Survey programming and project management

Data analysis

Reporting – PowerPoint or written reports.

Coordinate marketing and content publishing with team.

Develop content for the CanadianMillennials.ca website.

Requirements:

Internet savvy and fluent in MS-Office suite of products.

Strong interpersonal, writing, organizational, problem solving, and communication skills.

Ability to create content quickly.

Ability to work with minimal supervision.

Currently enrolled in an undergraduate or graduate program

Previous research experience and fluency in French is an asset.

Desired Skills and Experience:

Collaborative – you can work closely with the Abacus Data team to leverage expertise to develop content for the Abacus Data and Canadian Millennials websites.

Persistent – doing whatever it takes to get things done with integrity and without excuses.

Independent – you work well without constant supervision and cherish your freedom to achieve business and personal objectives.

About Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data is a leading public opinion and marketing research firm, bringing together the latest technology and industry expertise to help organizations effectively understand and connect with those they serve.

Having conducted research for some of North America’s leading corporations and advocacy groups, we deliver global research capacities with the attention to detail and focus of a boutique firm.

We are at the forefront of the research sector and deliver revolutionary insights and strategy to our clients. Our team brings together a rare combination of experience and energy in a team of professional researchers. We all value integrity, hard work, and creativity believing good research insights come from an intense focus on our clients, rigorous methods, and occasionally challenging convention. The bottom line is we get things right.

For more information about Abacus Data, visit our websites at www.abacusdata.ca, and www.canadianmillennials.ca

To inquire or apply for this position, please send a cover letter and CV to Executive Director, Ihor Korbabicz at ihor@abacusdata.ca.

Timeline

Initial applications are due January 3, 2019
Shortlisted candidates will be contacted on January 7
Job will likely begin on January 14, 2019

Workplace

Charities in trouble? How millennials are changing how we give

If you are a charity you may be looking at the next generation of donors and scratching your head. You might have seen contradictory articles, telling you that millennials are both the most and the least charitable generations in modern history.  Much has been written about this subject and the answers to these commonly asked questions vary by region and economic circumstance. Here at Abacus Data we try to thoughtfully answer these questions with novel research and inquisitive minds. In our last wave of the Canadian Millennials Report, our bi-annual syndicated study, we asked 2,000 millennials about their contributions to charities; here is what we found.

Most millennial households make less than the Canadian median income of $70,336 and nearly 68% make less than $70,000. This tells us that with lower incomes, millennials will have a lower donation threshold relative to older income-earning Canadians. Using the latest StatsCan data we know that approximately 87% of Canadian baby boomers donate money to charities in any given year, while our research shows, that millennials donate at a much lower rate – only 48% of millennials donate money to charities and charitable causes.

Initial impressions of millennial giving suggest that millennials are either the stingiest generation in modern history or at the very least the poorest. Nevertheless, while millennials might not be as well-off as older generations (bearing in mind that they are just starting their careers) they do still contribute to the charitable ecosystem. Knowing that millennials make less than the average Canadian income-earner, we broadened our scope to include time and in-kind donations to charitable causes. When we included all forms of charitable donation (volunteering, food/clothes donations, and monetary) we find that 80% of millennials have donated to charities in the past year.

So, are Canadian millennials less charitable than their parents? The data would suggest that the answer to that question is no. While millennials do not donate money to charities at the same level as their parents do, they subsidise their lack of funds with their time and in-kind donations. How does the modern charity cope with this shift in giving? While you might see a trimming of your bottom line in the coming years it seems as though you also have an army of ready and willing volunteers. Alternatively, recognizing that millennials have less money to donate, charities could crowdfund their projects where millennials can collectively contribute to a smaller piece of the overall goal. The new age of the charity isn’t a bleak one, it’s full of new opportunities for those who are willing to shift their traditional operations model to one that recognizes the new reality of the donor.

If you want to get a handle on how your industry is being disruptive by generational change, contact us to see how we can help you get a head of the curve.

Generational Change

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Millennials save but why don’t they invest?

We asked millennials for their outlook on their personal finances and their views on investing. Overall, we found that while most millennials are savers, few are investors. While three quarters of millennials have their money in their savings accounts only 41% put their money in growth vehicles likes stocks, bonds, or government investment schemes like GICs or RRSPs.

A whopping 75% of millennials have some degree of savings while the remaining quarter have none. 24% have up to $5,000 in saving, while 13% have between $5,000 and $10,000 in their accounts. Additionally, 1 in 5 millennials have between $10,000 and $50,000 in their savings account. This raises the question, if millennials have money stored away, why aren’t the investing it? Let’s try to unravel this ball of millennial yarn and exam some common mythologies.

MOUNTAINS OF DEBT

The first narrative we usually hear is that millennials are burdened with titanic mountains of student debt. It is sensible that millennials wouldn’t be investing because they have immediate liabilities they need to attend to. However, this narrative seems to fall short when we look at what 2000 millennials told us earlier this year. Only 30% have over $10,000 in debt while the remaining 60% have less than $5,000 or no debt at all. What this suggests is that most millennials are not spending their savings on servicing their debt. Their money seems to be remaining in their savings account rather than working for them in other investment instruments.

One disclaimer, in our calculation of debt we asked millennials to exclude mortgage debt. With that said, we know that over half of Canada’s millennials do not own a home and many who do often own purchase in a partnership with their parents (we actually wrote a very good article about this).

So, mortgage debt would only effect about half of our respondents and even then, the full weight of a mortgage is only applicable to an even smaller subset of millennial home owners as many share the burden with their parents and/or a partner. Therefore, if most are not spending their money on servicing debts (of all varieties) let’s figure out why millennials have left their money to languish languorously in their savings accounts.

LEGACY FEARS FROM THE GREAT RECESSION

The second millennial myth surrounding their financial outlook is that they are afraid to invest money after having witnessed the horrors of the 2008 financial crisis. Now, after many studies on human behaviour we have determined that humans, like most other sentient lifeforms, are loss averse. This means that while we like gains, we hate losses, even modest ones. Our brains interpret even some of our smallest losses as full body blows. Millennials have been stereotyped as perhaps the most grotesquely loss averse generation since the Great Depression. So, we tested this hypothesis and asked millennials to rank how risky they thought a list of different investment vehicles were.

When it comes to secure places to store their money, millennials prefer no other place more than commercial banks. 69% of millennials identified savings accounts as the safest place to hold their money, while 19% opted to store their hard-earned dough under their mattresses, and 12% really had no idea. After savings accounts the perceived risk profile of these standard investment instruments went up significantly.

Assets that can be quickly turned into cash are consider the next safest place to store money (41%). There’s even less certainty when it comes to bonds, exchange traded funds (ETFs), and mutual funds. Less than a third of millennials think these standard investment instruments are safe places to house or grow their wealth.

Investing in the stock market also brings anxiety to millennials. Most, (57%) see buying individual stocks as risky investments. Older millennials (those 28 and up) actually think that they have a better chance getting their money back from lottery tickets than putting their money into the stock market (33%). Younger millennials (born 1990 and later) take an alternate view. Only 19% of these younger millennials think that buying a lottery ticket is a safe place to invest their money while a nearly half (47%) would say that investing in individual stocks is a better choice.

THE UPSHOT

Notably, the most persistent variable across millennial age groups is the high level of uncertainty. Simply put, millennials do not know much about investing. Only a small portion of them actively invest their money and of those that do only half (51%) invest it themselves while the rest invest through brokers. Millennials are still very conservative when it comes to investing their money.

So why aren’t millennials investing? Well, we know it’s not debt, despite popular belief they don’t have much of that. Rather, they are undereducated in how different investment vehicles work and while they have savings they have little faith in the financial markets. Banks and advisors need to pacify the fears of millennial investors. They need to educate and demonstrate how millennials can invest securely and confidently as the become the dominate force in financial markets.

This data came from the Canadian Millennials Report, Canada’s largest reoccurring syndicated publication dedicated to understanding the views of Canadian Millennials. We survey 2,000 Millennials twice a year tracking their attitudes over time and their perceptions of current issues. If you’re interested in learning more about the Canadian Millennials Report click here.

Generational Change

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The Canadian Cannabis Monitor

Download a PDF of this information

The purchase and sale of recreational cannabis have recently become legal in Canada. This change has and will continue to create a number of new dynamics in the marketplace for product manufacturers, retailers, and public policymakers.

Drawing on our extensive experience in understanding the nascent legal market for cannabis products, Abacus Data is launching a market monitoring tracking study to explore how legalization is affecting consumers and to keep an eye out for public policy and marketing issues that may require adjustments along the way.

This is the ideal product for all three levels of government or businesses in the manufacturing and retail space who want to keep a close ear to the evolving cannabis conversation in Canada.

For the first year of legalization, we will survey a sample of 5,000 Canadians on a quarterly basis, after the first year we will move to survey biannually. The sample will be reflective of the regional, age, gender, and income profile of the country and will include both users and non-users of cannabis. With the recent legalization, we expect this will be the first time that we can expect a clear line of sight on the size of the market, as respondents should be less hesitant to be honest about their product use.

Our plan is to launch our first wave study in January 2018 and use that to create a market segmentation model based on usage and attitudes. This will serve as a framework for examining product and brand image, as well as expectations for the role of government and public policy.

COSTING

QUESTIONS WE PLAN TO EXPLORE

  • How many people are using different cannabis products and at what frequency?
  • What is the typical spend per customer per product?
  • How is the shift from illegal to legal market going?
  • What companies and brands are recognized?
  • How are people responding to product marketing?
  • Are education and enforcement regulations working?
  • Is legalization helping to keep the product away from children or curtail the black market?
  • How is the retail experience for customers based on mode of purchase?
  • What societal impacts are observed by Canadians?

And many more.

HOW ELSE WE CAN HELP:

1.We can brief decision makers and stakeholders on your behalf. Sometimes, the information and data has more impact coming from an independent, third party.

2.We can leverage our social networks to get your content in front of the right people.

3.We can work with our partners at spark*advocacy to make your content beautiful, impactful, and engaging.

All these services are offered at an additional cost.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the unprecedented threat of generational change and technological disruption.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice for our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

For more information or a custom quote, contact our Business Development Manager, Yvonne Langen.

Consumer BehaviourPublic Policy

Public perceptions remain a major hurdle to gender equity in politics

On behalf of Equal Voice, we asked 2,000 Canadian men and women (those 18 and over) their views on politics, political participation, and what can be done to increase women’s involvement in politics. This work is an extension of the study we conducted in 2017 called Finding Parity.

Here’s what we found:

There is widespread recognition among Canadians that men and women involved in politics are treated differently. Over three in four agree with this view and opinions are consistent across gender and age. Women are no more likely to agree there is a difference in treatment (76% of men, and 78% of women).

Across age groups, perceptions among women are pretty consistent but we do find a difference among men of different ages. Younger men (those 18 to 29) are much more likely to agree there is a difference in treatment between men and women (35%) compared to men over 30 (20%).

Along with a sense that men and women are treated differently when it comes to politics, we also find that men are more likely to report that they know a lot or a fair amount about politics. 48% of women surveys say they know a lot or a fair amount about politics compared with 67% among men. That’s a 19-point gap across gender. Among those who say they know “a lot about politics”, men are more than twice as likely to feel that way than women.

Canadian men are also almost twice as likely to say they have considered a career or volunteer position in politics (men 31% vs. women 10%). Of note, younger Canadians (aged 18 to 29) report higher levels of interest in politics than older Canadians but young men (43%) are almost twice as likely to say they have considered a career or volunteer position in politics than young women (24%)

THE UPSHOT

Women face many hurdles to becoming involved in politics. This research for Equal Voice confirms that perceptions remain a powerful barrier in achieving gender equity in Canadian politics.

Women believe that they are treated differently than men in politics. Women are less likely to say they know a lot about politics compared with men. This leads to less confidence and comfort with the subject and ultimately to fewer women who would even consider getting involved in politics – whether as a career or in a voluntary role.

The Daughters of the Vote program is such an important program because it introduces young women to the world of politics in Ottawa. It gives them a seat in our nationally elected legislature, encourages engagement and networking, and builds confidence in their own ability to get involved in politics and make change happen.

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted online with 2,000 Canadian residents aged 18 and over from September 14th to 18th, 2018. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Canadian PoliticsMediaPolls

Liberals see an uptick; Conservative growth stalls

In an election held tomorrow, 38% would vote for the Liberal Party, 31% Conservative and 16% for the NDP. These numbers are similar to the levels of support each party found the last time Canadians went to the polls. Regionally the Liberals hold a 7-point lead in BC, a 10-point lead in Ontario, a 17-point advantage in Quebec and a 45-point lead in Atlantic Canada.

Liberal support has clearly strengthened in Ontario, likely caused by the after-effects of the provincial election. Frustration with Kathleen Wynne is obviously removed from the equation, and we see a 7-point rise in negative feelings towards Doug Ford on a month over month basis.

The trend lines in BC suggest the NDP is struggling to get traction and the Liberals are holding their own. In Quebec, Liberal support has dipped, but is not coalescing around any single alternative –the NDP are splitting most of the “change” votes with the Conservatives and BQ.

Feelings about the performance of the federal government show approval levels up a few points from the spring, and disapproval has dropped 6 points over that period of time. Similar patterns are evident in feelings about the Prime Minister.

Performance assessments of the federal government suggest there may be some latent Liberal support above the 38% that currently say they will vote Liberal. Regionally, 45% in BC, 47% in Ontario, and 43% in Quebec say they approve of the federal government’s performance so far. These provinces together elect 241 of 338 MPs in the federal House of Commons. Another 32 seats come from Atlantic Canada, where approval of Ottawa’s performance is running at 61%.

Mr. Scheer’s image is not shifting much, and his negatives continue to be about equal to his positives. Mr. Singh’s negatives continue to be higher than his positives.

As to which party leader Canadians would prefer to see as prime minister after the next election, Justin Trudeau bests Andrew Scheer by 16-points and runs ahead of his party while both opposition leaders underperform their parties’ popularity.

Regional patterns on this preferred PM question underscore that if an election were held now, and turned on how people felt about the leaders, Mr. Trudeau is in an even stronger position relative to his rivals than current vote intention numbers imply.

UPSHOT

Last fall, winter, and spring were tough sledding for the Liberals. However heading into this winter, our data indicate the incumbents have stopped their slide and become more competitive, while both main opponents lack forward momentum, at least at this moment in time.

The Ontario election put dissatisfaction with Kathleen Wynne into sharp focus and likely kept downward pressure on the federal Liberal brand. Now, the question is whether Doug Ford is becoming something of a lightning rod in Ontario and may lead to some firming up of Liberal fortunes.

The Prime Minister’s popularity isn’t where it was a couple of years ago. However, he is running ahead of his party and considerably ahead of his rivals in terms of the impressions of voters. It’s not unusual for relatively new opposition leaders to trail on a “best PM” question, however, both of the opposition parties might have been hoping for more progress than is evident so far. As the discussion shifts from popularity to a choice of who people prefer to run the country, the data indicate the PM has more support than the party vote numbers suggest.

The results for the NDP point up some risk of voters deciding that 2019 might feel like a two-party race. Only 11% nationally (and only about half of NDP voters) say they would like to see Jagmeet Singh as Prime Minister next year. Unionized, feminist and environmentally oriented voters – each of which have been important parts of the NDP coalition – look like they may be tempted by other parties and leaders.

Methodology

Our survey was conducted online with 1,500 Canadians aged 18 and over from November 9 to 13, 2018. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian PoliticsMediaPollsTechnology

Alberta Pulse: UCP leads over NDP thanks to a more united right

THE UNITED CONSERVATIVE PARTY LEADS THE NDP BY 15 AS 77% OF FORMER WILDROSE AND PC PARTY SUPPORTERS NOW SUPPORT THE UCP.

About three and a half years ago, the NDP surprised many in Alberta and across the country by winning a majority government in a province that had never elected the NDP and had been governed by the Progressive Conservative Party for 44 years.

With about six months to go before the start of the next provincial election in Alberta, we surveyed 800 Albertans at the end of October and asked them to share their views on politics in the province.

Here’s what we found:

THE UNITED CONSERVATIVE PARTY LEADS BY 15 AMONG COMMITTED VOTERS BUT 26% OF ALBERTANS SAY THEY ARE UNDECIDED.

If an election was held at the time of the survey, the United Conservative Party would likely win a majority. Overall 48% of committed voters say they would vote UCP with the incumbent NDP behind 15 points at 33%. The Alberta Liberal and Alberta parties both got 8% of the vote.

Among all respondents, 26% say they are undecided with most of those them saying they voted in the previous provincial election.

Compared to the actual election results in 2015, the NDP is down 7 points from the 40% it won, whereas the United Conservative Party is 3 points ahead of where the former PC and Wildrose parties stood if you combined their popular vote today.

The UCP leads among both younger and older Albertans (although the race is closer among those under 45) and among both men and women.

Whereas the UCP has large leads among Albertans with high school or college educations, they are tied with the NDP among those who have a university education.

Regionally, the NDP leads by 8 in Edmonton while the UCP has a 21-point lead in Calgary and a 42-point lead in communities outside of the two largest cities. The NDP is stronger among voters who say they live in an urban community (trail the UCP by 4) compared with those living in suburban or rural communities. In rural Alberta, the UCP has an astounding 44-point lead over the NDP.

Beyond the horserace, the situation is challenging for the NDP because of the limited size of its accessible voter pool.

The NDP’s accessible voter pool is 13-points smaller than that of the UCP meaning that even if the NDP converted all of its potential support into voters and mobilized them to vote, the UCP could still win if it holds onto most of its current support.

Moreover, the NDP must also deal with opponents closer to it ideologically in the form of the Liberal and Alberta parties who themselves have sizeable accessible voter pools to try and convert. In fact, as many Albertans say they are open to voting for Stephen Mandel and the Alberta Party as are those open to voting NDP.

THE NDP STRUGGLES HAVE MORE TO DO WITH A UNITED OPPONENT THAN DISSATISFACTION AMONG ITS VOTERS.

The NDP won in 2015 in large part thanks to a strong desire for change and a fractured conservative movement. Despite challenging economic conditions, the NDP government’s greatest threat is not from dissatisfaction with its performance among its past voters, but from a united opposition.

For example, among those who voted NDP in 2015, only 16% say the government has performed worse than they would have expected. 60% of PC or Wildrose voters feel the same way but on the other hand, 33% of NDP voters want a change in government, as do 66% of Albertans overall.

And while only 59% of those who voted NDP in 2015 say they would vote NDP again today, most of the defectors have not switched their support to another party, but instead, say they are undecided. 9% of past NDP voters now way they will vote UCP while another 10% are inclined to support another party (Liberal or Alberta Party). The NDP has an opportunity to rebuild its coalition from 2015 by convincing past voters that it deserves re-election and it is a better choice than its opposition. But that alone may not be enough to win again.

The reason? Because so far, the right in Alberta has reunited.

When we look at where 2015 Wildrose and PC voters have shifted, we find that 3 in 4 now say they would vote UCP. Another 13% are undecided while 10% say they would vote for another party (half of whom would vote NDP today). A united right along with some defection from the NDP to the UCP is the basis for the official opposition’s large lead in vote intention.

But several other factors can offer some insight into the dynamics at play in Alberta politics.

MORE HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPRESSION OF PREMIER NOTLEY THAN A POSITIVE ONE, BUT JASON KENNEY IS NOT FARING THAT MUCH BETTER.

Despite clear animosity towards Premier Notley, her personal numbers are nowhere near the level of negativity we have seen for other recent incumbent premiers facing re-election in Ontario or Quebec. One in three Albertans has a positive view of the Premier compared with 45% who view her negatively.

About the same number have a positive view of Jason Kenney but his negatives are 11-points lower.

David Khan and Stephen Mandel are less well known and not well defined, except in Edmonton where Mandel, as the former Mayor, is better known.

Impressions of Premier Notley match closely with vote intention patterns. She’s more popular in Edmonton and much less so in Calgary and areas outside the two major cities. Interestingly, men view her more positively than women.

Among 2015 NDP voters she is well liked (only 15% view her negatively) while PC and Wildrose voters overwhelmingly dislike her (9% disagree and have come to like the NDP leader). More important, however, among Liberal and Alberta Party voters, half have a positive view of the NDP premier suggesting an opportunity to grow support among those voters.

Impressions of UCP Leader Jason Kenney also follow similar patterns as vote intention. He is more popular in Calgary and outside the big cities and more unpopular in Edmonton. Men and older residents have a more favourable impression of him while women and younger resident feel less positive about him.

As expected, there is a strong relationship between how one feels about Premier Notley or Jason Kenney and the likelihood of supporting the party they lead. Among those who like Rachel Notley, 65% say they would vote NDP. That number drops to 11% among those who are neutral towards her and 1% among those who dislike her.

For Mr. Kenney, 87% of those who like him would vote UCP compared with 28% of those with more neutral feelings and 3% of those who dislike him. This advantage among those with “neutral” views is both an opportunity for the UCP and a potential threat.

PREMIER NOTLEY AND HER GOVERNMENT GET GOOD MARKS FOR STANDING UP FOR THE ENERGY SECTOR AND RUNNING PUBLIC SERVICES BUT STRUGGLES ON ECONOMIC AND BUDGET MANAGEMENT.

When we ask respondents to rate the performance of the provincial government in a few areas, we find residents do hold different views depending on the issue. For example, about half of residents feel the government has done a good job standing up for Alberta on the pipeline flight or standing up for the energy industry. About half think the government has done a good job running the province’s public services.

But on questions of economic and fiscal management, less than four in ten feel the government has done a good job with at least 3 in 10 feeling the government has done a very poor job. This helps explain Jason Kenney’s focus on economic development and fiscal management as it appears to be a major vulnerability for the government.

Broader perceptions about the state of the Alberta economy underscore this challenge. Most Albertans (56%) describe the provincial economy as poor or very poor. Another 5% describe it as very good and 39% say it is good.

When we ask about how things are going in other provinces and nationally, we find that Albertans are less bullish on the Canadian economy but generally feel that things are better in Ontario, BC, and especially neighbouring Saskatchewan where 62% describe the Saskatchewan economy as doing very good or good – 18 points fewer than think the same thing about the Alberta economy.

When we look specifically at perceptions of the Alberta and Saskatchewan economies, we find that 29% of Albertans feel the Alberta economy is doing poorly but feel the Saskatchewan one is doing well. This group holds quite negative views of the NDP government. Only 9% think the government is doing a good job managing the economy and only 12% voted NDP in 2015.

This difference in perceptions between how the economy is doing at home and across the provincial border in Saskatchewan is interesting and may be driving some of the underlying negativity towards the NDP government despite that fact that Alberta and Saskatchewan have similar unemployment rates and in 2017 and 2018, Alberta’s economy has grown at a faster rate than that of Saskatchewan.

UPSHOT

With about 7 months to go before the next Alberta election, the opinion environment for the NDP and Premier Rachel Notley is quite challenging. Two-thirds of Albertans want change, conservative-oriented voters have rallied and mostly united around Jason Kenney and the United Conservative Party, and despite some goodwill for Premier Notley, the smaller pool of accessible voters for the NDP means it has much less room for error and fewer paths to victory.

The UCP is in a strong position thanks to its effectiveness at uniting former PC and Wildrose party supporters. With a 15-point lead in vote intentions, a 13-point advantage in terms of accessible voters, and broad and deep support outside of Edmonton, the UCP is well positioned to win come next spring.

But a few data points suggest it’s still too early to call it for the UCP.

First, one in four Albertans are undecided and a majority of those undecided respondents said they voted in the previous election. Many are former NDP supporters who are somewhat disappointed with the government but are not fully comfortable with alternatives.

Second, compared with other premiers and provincial governments that have been defeated over the past year, Rachel Notley is more popular and the desire for change is not as intense as with those other cases. Albertans do give her credit for standing up for the province in the pipeline debate and recognize her efforts standing up for the energy industry. If the economic situation in the province and provincial finances continue to improve there may be space for an NDP comeback.

However, one challenge stands in the NDP’s way – the UCP and Jason Kenney. As long as conservative-oriented voters are united behind Jason Kenney and the UCP, even with all those who voted NDP back under the orange tent, the UCP would likely still win.

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 800 Albertans aged 18 and over from October 24 to 27, 2018. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.5%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Alberta’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the unprecedented threat of generational change and technological disruption.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

MediaPollsTechnology

Can the Conservatives win in 2019 by running against carbon pricing? It’s no slam dunk.

In our latest national survey, we asked respondents a series of questions about climate change, the federal approach to deal with the issue, and what they know and think about the federal leaders and their approach to climate change.

Here’s what we found:

THE SCALE OF THE CLIMATE ISSUE

Eighty percent of Canadians believe climate change is a very big or moderately big problem today. Only one in five say it is a small problem or not a problem. Well known partisan and regional differences exist on this issue: Conservatives and Prairie residents are less preoccupied with the issue. However, this offers a warning signal for advocates at either end of the on the climate change debate spectrum.

• Among Conservative partisans, only half think the climate is not really a problem. Among Albertans, 59% say climate change is a moderately big or very big problem. Conservative leaders who appear to be dismissive of the issue may find some of their base unhappy at that choice

• On the other hand, some environmental advocates may want to reflect on the fact that after decades of strident advocacy many voters see it as an important problem – among others – to be considered by political leaders.

• As the Liberals consider strategy in the run-up to the election, they will note that “Orange Persuadables” (voters leaning NDP but saying they could consider the Liberals) are 10 points more likely than average to say that climate change is a very big problem. Among Blue Persuadables, one in four say climate change is a very big problem. In other words, if the election looks like it is turning into a binary choice between a Liberal Party with a climate agenda and a Conservative Party that is almost silent on the issue, there are votes that could coalesce to the Liberals’ advantage.

• Women are 9 points more likely than men to say climate change is a very big problem. Differences in concern by generation are modest. For Conservative strategists, a lack of climate policies could exacerbate a gender challenge and with no particular upside among older voters.

BELIEF IN CLIMATE CHANGE EVIDENCE

Two-thirds of Canadians feel there is conclusive or solid evidence that the earth is warming. Only 9% say there is little or no evidence. Half of those inclined to vote Conservative say the evidence of climate change is now conclusive or solid. Half of Alberta voters also believe this.

More than 9 in 10 people believe that if the planet is warming, humans are at least part of the problem, and two-thirds call human and industrial activity such as the burning of fossil fuels a major or significant cause. Among Conservative voters, only 14% deny any impact of human and industrial activity, and only 11% of Albertans feel that way.

Broadly, Canadians also believe that it is possible to reduce the effects of climate change. This includes about 6 in 10 Alberta and Conservative voters.


REACTIONS TO FEDERAL CLIMATE PRICING POLICY

We provided a basic description of the federal policy approach to pricing carbon and asked for reactions. Fifty-nine percent (59%) thought it was a step in the right direction including roughly half of those living on the Prairies, a third of Conservative voters, and two-thirds of NDP voters.


A second question included information about the rebate to affected households and found discomfort with the federal policy dropped to 24%. Strong support at 18% was larger than strong opposition (11%). Half of Conservative supporters and about two-thirds of Prairie residents say they support or can accept this approach. In Ontario, support is twice as common as opposition.

While opposition to the federal approach is softer than some might imagine, support for the policy isn’t overwhelming or unqualified. Half think it will increase the cost of living, which given the importance of cost of living issues these days remains a significant risk for advocates of this policy. The fact that only a third are convinced this policy will lead to reduced carbon emissions is an important signal to federal advocates as well.

While people aren’t sure how much it will help innovation and economic growth, they are clearly more likely to believe the effect will be a positive one than a negative one. Only 11% think it will be harmful to the health of the economy in the future.

Asked if they would vote for this policy if they were a Member of Parliament, 57% say they would vote to pass it, including 79% of Liberal voters, 68% of NDP voters and 30% of Conservative voters.

In BC, 68% say they would endorse the federal approach, and just under 60% of voters in Quebec and Ontario say they would be a “yea” if they were MPs.

LEADERS AND ELECTORAL POLITICS

Conservative leader Andrew Scheer, has said that his first priority, if he wins the election in 2019, would be to abolish the federal carbon price, signaling an intention to make this a central campaign issue.

But today, only 7% say carbon pricing will be the most important issue to them, another 54% say it will be a factor, while more than a third say this policy will play a small role in their voting choice.

Among Conservatives, only 12% say it will be the most important issue. Among those who think the carbon price is a step in the wrong direction, only 1 in 10 says it will determine their vote.

Most people think Prime Minister Justin Trudeau believes climate change is happening and is caused by human activities. Voters are less sure what Jagmeet Singh feels. As many think Andrew Scheer is a climate change denier as think he believes there is a problem and humans contribute to it.

The plurality believes that Justin Trudeau is committed to doing everything he can to solve climate change. Most people can’t say whether Jagmeet Singh has this level of commitment and views of Andrew Scheer show more doubt than confidence in Mr. Scheer’s determination on the issue.

When asked if they are each listening to the advice of experts on the issue, the plurality believes Mr. Trudeau is doing so, while only a quarter think Jagmeet Singh and Andrew Scheer are.

When asked which leader has the best plan to deal with climate change, Mr. Trudeau was picked by 27%, Mr. Scheer by 11%, Mr. Singh by just 5%, behind Elizabeth May (9%).

Among those who say carbon pricing will be a factor in how they vote, 29% felt Mr. Trudeau has the best plan followed by Mr. Scheer at 15%, Ms. May at 10%, and Mr. Singh at 5%.

Among those who voted NDP in 2015, as many say Mr. Trudeau (14%) has the best plan as say Jagmeet Singh does (13%). Among Conservative voters, only 40% say Mr. Scheer has the best plan. Among Blue Persuadables (swing voters) just 31% say Mr. Scheer has the best plan.

THE IPCC REPORT

About a third followed the news of the most recent report of the UN Panel on Climate Change very or fairly closely and 44% said they had heard of it but didn’t really know the details. Among those aware of the report, 45% said it left them more concerned suggesting more than 8 million voters felt increased concern about climate change as a result of this report

If you combine both the awareness and impact questions, we find that 33% of Canadians said they became more concerned because of the IPCC report, 36% were aware of the report but unaffected, 4% became less concerned while 26% were unaware of the report itself.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: ”With the cost of housing and living among the biggest concerns for Canadians, it might be easy to imagine that Canadians will rally to campaigns to kill a national carbon price. But these results say that’s far from a foregone conclusion. Many Conservative voters share a concern about the climate issue and up to half are open to the idea of pricing carbon. The idea of rebating the tax to consumers cuts resistance to carbon pricing significantly.

Moreover, Canadians are signaling that they are concerned about climate change but think there are important other issues as well. They are not inclined to want an election about carbon pricing. This is true even among those who dislike the carbon pricing idea.

The challenges faced by the NDP are clear on this issue. Many of their potential supporters do not know much about where their leader stands and are inclined to think the Liberal approach is relatively aligned with their preferences. There is no evidence in these data that environmental critics of the government have rallied British Columbians or NDP voters against the Trudeau government based on energy and pipeline issues.

For the Conservatives, fighting a new tax may feel like a promising, almost ‘can’t fail’ proposition. However, it comes with some clear risks. Today, their leader is judged to care relatively little about an issue of rising public concern and is signaling he wants to make carbon pricing a central election issue, a choice that many CPC supporters have qualms about.”

According to David Coletto: “More broadly, our poll should offer both hope and concern for advocates of climate action in Canada. While most Canadians recognize that climate change is a big problem, that the effects of climate change can be mitigated, and most favour a national carbon price, there remains many who appear either ambiguous about action or are isolated from the debate about climate change.

Consider the finding that one in four Canadians were unaware of the recent IPCC report. Despite the widespread coverage it received in the new media, many were unaware of it. Almost half of those exposed to coverage of report say they became more concerned about climate change. As fewer Canadians consume mainstream news media and rely more on their social media feeds for news and information, it’s especially important for those who want to raise awareness and support for action on climate change need to be active where people are.

Politically, although most feel the federal approach to climate action is a good step and most support or can accept the federal carbon pricing plan that includes the consumer rebate, the minority opposed is large enough to become a significant electoral voice if it’s unified and mobilized. There’s a chance that one of the key battle lines for the next election could be on how to deal with climate change and which party has the best plan to do deal with it.

The Conservatives may be able to win if they can consolidate carbon tax opponents around them, but it’s no slam dunk given that a clear majority favour action and are concerned about the issue. If this group mobilizes and consolidates around the Liberals, there’s little room for the Conservatives to win in the minority on this issue.”

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 1,650 Canadians aged 18 and over from October 24 to 29, 2018 as part of Abacus Data’s national omnibus survey product (find out more). A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the unprecedented threat of generational change and technological disruption.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

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