Liberals and Conservatives neck and neck again

Don’t miss David’s interview with Canada’s Chief Statistician and head of Statistics Canada on inFocus with David Coletto

We just completed a national survey of 1,500 Canadian adults (from May 7 to 12, 2021). Here’s what the survey found:

CURRENT VOTING INTENTION

If an election were held now, the Liberals would win 34% of the vote, the Conservatives 32%, the NDP 17%, the Green Party 7% and the BQ at 25% in Quebec.

Over the past month, Liberal support is down 5 while Conservative support is up 4. For the Liberals, the shift reflects declines in support in Atlantic Canada and the Prairies. For the Conservatives, there is a notable increase in support in Alberta, but otherwise, shifts are marginal.

In BC, the Liberals, Conservatives, and NDP are in a three-way tie while the Conservatives continue to dominate in the Prairies. The Liberals continue to hold sizeable leads in Ontario (13-points), Quebec (8-points), and Atlantic Canada (20-points).

LEADER IMPRESSIONS

Justin Trudeau enjoys a positive impression among 39% and finds negative impressions among 43%, for a net score of -4.

Erin O’Toole enjoys a positive impression among 18% and finds negative impressions among 35%, for a net score of -17.

Jagmeet Singh enjoys a positive impression among 33% and finds negative impressions among 25% for a net +8.

Annamie Paul enjoys a positive impression among 13% and finds negative impressions among 19% for a net -6.

Yves Francois Blanchet, enjoys a +5 net rating in Quebec, which compares to a +3 for Justin Trudeau, -15 for Erin O’Toole, and +1 for Jagmeet Singh and -2 Annamie Paul.

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT APPROVAL

Today, 41% approve of the performance of the federal government, 41% disapprove, and 18% are mixed or undecided on the performance of the government. There has been no clear trend on this indicator for several months.

Approval of the government has a strong relationship with voting intentions. Among those who approve, 65% say they would vote Liberal today. Among those who disapprove of the Trudeau government’s performance, only 3% would vote Liberal, and 60% would vote Conservative.

Worth noting is those who are mixed or undecided in their view of the government’s performance: today the Liberals would claim 29% of that vote, compared to 17% for the NDP and 15% for the Conservatives.

In the three provinces with the most seats, approval of the federal government is 45%/43% (approve/disapprove in BC, 45%/39% in Ontario, and 42%/31% in Quebec.

We asked respondents to assess the federal government’s performance on a range of items. Among the more notable findings:

• On 14 items tested 50% or more gave the government acceptable or good ratings. The best-rated item for Ottawa is for helping those who are in trouble because of Covid.

• The four worst items for the government were for handling the economy, ensuring timely vaccines, controlling infections at the borders, and debt and deficit. On vaccine timeliness, today 60% give Ottawa an acceptable or good rating.

• On handling the economy, 57% give an acceptable or good rating. However, on “supporting the economic needs of Canadians, 69% offer a good or acceptable rating.

• The ratings for the government on “acting on climate change” which has been an area of policy announcement lately show 68% giving the government an acceptable or good rating.

• The recent spate of news about conduct in the military and the questions about General Vance was not specifically measured, although it is worth noting that the government continues to get among its’ best ratings for “advocating equal rights for women”. Among women, 76% give the government acceptable or good ratings; among men 75%.

• To better understand the potential impact of the debt/deficit issue it is useful to look at the views of key subgroups. Among voters who self-describe as on the centre of the spectrum, 51% give the government good or acceptable ratings, while 49% are unhappy.

DESIRE FOR CHANGE

Today, 41% of voters say it is definitely time for a change in government. Another 27% say “it would be good to have change but doesn’t matter to me that much”. The intense desire for change is up 4 points in less than a month but still well below what it was at the end of the 2019 campaign.

A total of 68% who would prefer to see a change in government is about equal to what it was at the end of the 2019 campaign. Worth noting as it can relate to motivation and turnout – the number who are adamant about the need for change is 11 points below the 2019 threshold, although it has risen by four points in recent weeks.

Hard change voters are more commonly men, Prairies residents and Conservatives. The size of the two swing voter battleground segments (people who have a leaning but don’t feel that strongly) is 46% in BC, 42% in Ontario, and 44% in Quebec.

Among the 41% who are “hard change” voters (people who say it is definitely time for a change in government) the Conservatives would win just over half (56%) of this segment with the rest splitting 16% NDP, 8% Green, 7% People’s Party, 6% BQ and 4% Liberal.

Among the 27% “soft change” voters, the Conservatives would win about a quarter of this segment (25%), while 29% would vote NDP, 27% Liberal, 10% for the BQ and 7% Green.

Among the “soft no change” voters, 62% would vote Liberal today, followed by 14% NDP, 14% Green, and only 5% going to the Conservatives. The Liberals would win 90% of the “hard no change” voters.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “We see a topline tightening horserace nationally but after examining key regional battlegrounds it’s not clear to me that one can see a trend developing in terms of competitiveness electorally.

The number of voters looking for change is up marginally, but the intensity of that feeling remains mild, and the increase is more evident in places where the incumbents have little support and weak prospects.

The Liberals can see some encouraging signs in these numbers but also some clear warning signals about debt and border issues during the pandemic. Only 18% are sure they want this government re-elected: to win the Liberals will have to convince indifferent or slightly disappointed voters that they are a better choice for the next few years. The numbers are a warning not to run a campaign that banks heavily on voters rewarding the record.

For the Conservatives, there are two evident challenges: Mr. O’Toole’s personal numbers are 2:1 negative to positive nationally and in Ontario, Quebec, and BC. Among Conservative voters, only 52% say they have a positive image of him. Among Albertans, the number is 29%. Among those who disapprove of the government, only 31% have a positive image of the Conservative leader today.

The second challenge lies in the fact that the Conservative share of the soft vote is relatively small right now. To produce an electoral breakthrough they will need better feelings towards their leader, more people feeling a strong need for change and a bigger share of those who are open to the idea of a change in government.”

According to David Coletto: “The political landscape has become more competitive over the past few weeks. Although the government’s approval rating and the Prime Minister’s image have not changed, a Liberal lead of 11-points four weeks ago is down to 2-points today. It is unclear whether this is a response to the budget, fatigue over the third wave gripping much of the country, or other factors is unclear. But the increase in those definitely wanting a change in government suggests that decisions the Liberal government has made over the past few weeks have angered and animated many of those predisposed to oppose the Liberals which likely explains the tightening horserace.”

And don’t miss any of our research and analysis, plus get our weekly Worth A Look newsletter. Sign up today.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

Find out more about what we are doing to help clients respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from May 7 to 12, 2021. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Canadian PoliticsCOVID-19MediaPolls

Vaccine acceptance is on the rise

Abacus Data is proud to be supporting the research and polling for the Faster Together Task Group

The latest tracking polling by Abacus Data shows that the number of people who are willing to be vaccinated is on the rise, and the number of people hesitant or refusing to take a Covid-19 vaccine is at a new low.

Abacus has been providing data on vaccine opinions to a volunteer Task Group of organizations and individuals who are preparing to launch a campaign to help encourage Canadians to get vaccinated, under the banner “Faster Together”. The main thrust of the campaign will be to remind people that when people choose to be vaccinated, this can bring us all back together again, more quickly. Bruce Anderson Chairman of Abacus and Hassan Yussuf, President of the Canadian Labour Congress, co-chair the Task Group.

The latest data (collected through 1500 interviews nationwide from May 7 to 12) show that the number of people who’ve already had a shot or who will take one as soon as it is available to them now stands at 71%, up from 63% only a couple of weeks ago.

Today 46% report having already had at least one shot, and another 25% say they will get one as soon as it is available to them. A total of 29% show some measure of hesitancy, as follows: 16% say they will be vaccinated, but prefer to wait a bit longer, 5% say they would prefer not to be vaccinated but could be persuaded to, and 8% say they will never be vaccinated.

The major factors influencing hesitancy are concern that the long-term impacts of the vaccines may not be known and worries about the risk of blood clots. A rising number of those who are hesitant indicate that they would prefer not to take an Astra Zeneca shot and wait instead for the availability of a different vaccine. Today, 85% say they would be comfortable taking the Pfizer vaccine, 71% for Moderna, 47% for Johnson and Johnson and 40% for Astra Zeneca.

Hesitancy levels are not equal across different parts of the population. Those exhibiting more hesitancy than average include Albertans, men under 45, those with less formal education and those who self-describe as right of centre on the political spectrum.

According to Bruce Anderson: “While demand is stalling in the US, there is growth in demand for vaccinations in Canada. There is a chance of vaccinating between 87% and 92% of the population over the coming months. Hesitation about Astra Zeneca is visible in our numbers, but as more people get a shot and experience minimal side effects, and as people begin to imagine an end to pandemic restrictions, on balance people are increasingly willing and ready to take this step.”

According to Hassan Yussuf: “Getting vaccinated is the quickest way for all of us to get back together safely and return our economy to health.”

FASTER TOGETHER

Over the last several weeks more than 40 organizations representing business and industrial sectors, labour unions, as well as individuals have come together to develop a campaign set to launch in the coming weeks, which is designed to spread messages that encourage vaccination take up.

For more information – including how to join this all-volunteer Task Group – please contact Bruce Anderson banderson@abacusdata.ca (613-882-0929 )or Hassan Yussuff hyussuff@clcctc.ca (613-851-7881).

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from May 9-12, 2021. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

Find out more about what we are doing to help clients respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

COVID-19MediaPolls

The Best and Worst Mother’s Day Gifts

It’s that time of year to celebrate moms! Although we really should be celebrating them all year, right? Just over half of Canadians plan to celebrate Mother’s Day this year, so we decided to put together a guide of do’s and don’ts and sharing Moms’ preferences for celebrating their day. It turns out that the gifts that Mom’s value the most are something homemade, like the crafts kids make in elementary school. Above all, what Moms want the most is to be celebrated by spending time with family.

What distinguishes people who plan to celebrate Mother’s Day? People with kids, especially young kids, are more likely to plan on celebrating this year. Age is also a key factor. Young people are generally more likely to celebrate the day. Interestingly, people who live in Quebec are less likely than the rest of the country to be celebrating this year.

Just over one in ten Canadians who celebrate Mother’s Day do so without exchanging gifts. For most, though a gift for mom is part of the celebration, it is not necessarily an expensive gift. A $20 to $50 gift is the most popular (37%) followed by a $51 to $100 gift (26%).  Mothers can expect that they will receive comparable gifts to last year, as 78% say they will be spending about the same as last year on their gift.

The most popular gift to give Mom is flowers, followed by food and drink, jewelry, beauty products and clothing.  A few mom’s get houseware or cookware/small appliances.

When it comes to gift giving though, Canadians who give gifts are almost equally divided into three equally sized camps. A third think something homemade makes the best gift. Another third think something from a store is best. Finally, a third eschew things in favour of experiences, which probably include spending time with family.

Although knowing what kind of gift your mother would appreciate may be critical to getting it right, most moms do not have a worst gift experience they can recall – many expressing that any gift at all is appreciated. Forgetting Mother’s Day in general or not getting a gift at all is the top candidate for worst gift. Kitchen/household items are also gifts that risk disappointing mom.

In fact, the best gift experiences highlight that the best thing you can give mom is something personal/handmade or your time. Flowers are also often mentioned as the best gift.

In line with their favourite gifts, moms most want to be celebrated by spending time with or hearing from family. A meal – and not having to help clean the dishes – is next most wanted and few moms want to be celebrated with a gift.

THE UPSHOT

According to Richard Jenkins: Mother’s Day does not need to involve a stressful search for the perfect gift. You already have it. Moms want to celebrate with their family though a little homemade touch goes a long way to melting Mom’s heart.

And don’t miss any of our research and analysis, plus get our weekly Worth A Look newsletter. Sign up today.

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadians from April 23 to 27, 2021. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This poll was conducted and paid for by Abacus Data.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

Find out more about what we are doing to help clients respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Polls

Post-Pandemic Beauty Boom or Bust?

During the course of the pandemic, many of us have spent more time looking at ourselves than ever before. The transition to working from home has been enabled by videoconferencing tools like Zoom and nearly all our professional and social conversations are made possible by a series of video squares. While these tools have tremendous value in keeping us connected to our colleagues, friends, and family – they’ve also resulted in many hours spent gazing at our reflection, studying our expressions and overanalyzing our complexions.

“Should I change my hair colour?” “Is it time to get serious with my skincare routine?” We ask ourselves these questions as we wonder if any of those wrinkles are new and chastise ourselves about that one time we over-plucked our eyebrows that haven’t quite seemed to grow back. And we continue to fall down the rabbit hole until we’ve decided – I want to change my look. But, isn’t everything closed?

In our most recent study, we were curious about whether our inability to have beauty treatments and procedures done and the seemingly never-ending time we have spent staring at our own video feed during the pandemic have impacted demand for beauty treatments and procedures once things start to reopen.

For context, before the pandemic, a quarter of Canadians routinely or occasionally went to a salon or medical cosmetic centre to have treatments done like hair, nails, eyebrow waxing or threading, semi-permanent makeup (like nails or brows), laser treatments, and cosmetic procedures like Botox. These are more likely to be women and those aged 18-29.

But what about Canadians, who previously weren’t so interested in beauty spending? Have all these videoconference calls created a larger segment of beauty treatment-seeking Canadians?

During these video calls we spend time side-eyeing the rectangle that holds our face, confronted with watching ourselves in a way that seems almost obsessive, even if we pretend we’re not doing it. We can’t help ourselves – it’s a window into what others experience when interacting with us and psychologists have found it’s a means of coping with the overwhelming stimuli of a video call.

In our study, we found that half of those that use videoconferencing software, like Zoom, say that seeing themselves on video more frequently than before the pandemic makes them want to get beauty treatments and procedures done to improve their appearance. Even 8% of those that never had beauty treatments or procedures done before the pandemic feel this way.

With most salons and medical cosmetic centres closed across Canada on and off during the pandemic, Canadians have taken to replicating these treatments themselves at home, like other DIY projects we’ve adopted to keep ourselves busy.

The most common beauty treatments attempted at home during the pandemic are on the simpler end of the spectrum: hair cuts and colouring, manicures and pedicures, and facials and face masks. Those who routinely or occasionally, and even rarely, got treatments and procedures done before the pandemic are more likely to have attempted these treatments at home.

While colouring your own hair or applying a face mask at home is a nice self-care ritual, there is nothing quite like the experience of having these beauty treatments done by a professional in the relaxing setting of a beauty salon, spa, or medical cosmetic centre.

4 in 10 of routine and occasional treatment-getters say that right now they are motivated to have these treatments done in a salon or treatment centre setting because it helps to improve their mood and makes them feel their best. About 20% feel that it’s time for a change to their look and that they’d like to have treatments done more for relaxation than a specific aesthetic outcome.

Here are some other key findings:

  • 7.1 million Canadians (19%) say since the start of the pandemic they have more disposable income to spend on things like beauty treatments or procedures.
  • During the pandemic 6.8 million Canadians (18%) have spent time during the pandemic reading up on and researching various beauty treatments and procedures.
  • 6.8 million Canadians (18%) are finding themselves interested in beauty treatments and procedures they wouldn’t have considered before.
  • 7.5 million Canadians (20%) can see themselves getting more beauty procedures done once the pandemic is over compared with their pre-pandemic habits.

These findings are especially true for those that typically have beauty treatments done and usually those under 45.

It seems like those most likely to be heading to a salon post-pandemic are the ones who were already going there.

THE UPSHOT

According to Megan Ross: Overall, Canadians are looking forward to getting back to “normal” and for some, that includes having different beauty treatments and procedures done in a relaxing setting and by a practiced professional.

After months of staring at ourselves during conference calls and noticing things we may not have noticed before in the mirror, professionals in this industry can expect an increase in curiosity both by existing treatment-getters and by those who may have not been customers before, and expect spots to book up fast when they are able to open again.

And don’t miss any of our research and analysis, plus get our weekly Worth A Look newsletter. Sign up today.

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1,900 Canadian adults from April 16 to 21, 2021. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.23%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This poll was conducted and paid for by Abacus Data.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

Find out more about what we are doing to help clients respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

COVID-19MediaPolls

Post budget, Liberals lead by 7 nationally

Don’t miss David’s interview with Biden’s chief pollster John Anzalone on inFocus with David Coletto

We just completed a national survey of 2,201 Canadian adults (from April 20 to 25, 2021).

Here’s what the survey found:

CURRENT VOTING INTENTION

If an election were held now, the Liberals would win 36% of the vote, the Conservatives 29%, the NDP 17%, the Green Party 7% and the BQ at 30% in Quebec. The Liberals are down 3, while the other parties are all within the margin from our previous few polls.

In BC, the Liberals and Conservatives are tied at 31%, 8 points ahead of the NDP, and the Conservatives continue to hold wide leads in the Prairies. The Liberals have a 13-point lead in Ontario, a 6-point lead over the BQ in Quebec, and a 25-point lead in Atlantic Canada.

LEADER IMPRESSIONS

Justin Trudeau enjoys a positive impression among 37% and finds negative impressions among 42%, for a net score of -5.

Erin O’Toole enjoys a positive impression among 20% and finds negative impressions among 34%, for a net score of -14.

Jagmeet Singh enjoys a positive impression among 33% and finds negative impressions among 26% for a net +7.

Annamie Paul enjoys a positive impression among 16% and finds negative impressions among 17% for a net -1.

Yves Francois Blanchet, enjoys a +10 net rating in Quebec, which compares to a +5 for Justin Trudeau, -17 for Erin O’Toole, and -3 for Jagmeet Singh and +1 Annamie Paul.

PREFERRED PRIME MINISTER

Asked which of the national party leaders they would prefer to see as Prime Minister, 31% picked Justin Trudeau, with Erin O’Toole (18%) and Jagmeet Singh (17%) following. 3% picked Ms. Paul and the same number preferred Maxime Bernier.

If forced to choose between Trudeau and O’Toole, most would choose Trudeau (60%) over O’Toole (40%). Perhaps most noteworthy is that Trudeau would be the preference of 62% of BQ voters, 55% of Green Party voters, 76% of NDP voters, and 64% of the undecided.

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT APPROVAL

Today, 41% approve of the performance of the federal government, and 42% disapprove. There has been no clear trend on this indicator for several months.

DESIRE FOR CHANGE

Today, 39% of voters say it’s definitely time for a change in government. Another 27% say “it would be good to have change but doesn’t matter to me that much”. This total of 66% who would prefer to see a change is 3 points less than at the time of the last election, and the intensity of the desire for change is 12 points less.

In total, 34% say they prefer the Liberals to be re-elected, 3-points higher than at the end of the 2019 election campaign.

For the 27% “soft change voters, 71% have a preference for Trudeau over O’Toole if the election comes down to a question of which of these two you’d prefer to be PM. For the 15% of voters who are “soft re-elect”, 95% prefer Trudeau over O’Toole.

Among the 39% who are “hard change” voters, 20% would prefer Trudeau and 80% O’Toole, reflecting the fact that a notable minority of these voters are more progressive than conservative in their orientation.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “As long as the pandemic is with us, politics will not be a preoccupation for most people. The Liberals and Conservatives have both launched policy initiatives but in neither case do these seem to have materially affected the mood of the country. As things currently stand, the Liberals have a decided advantage politically, which isn’t the same as unshakeable, enthusiastic support, but should be viewed as more tentative and subject to change. The message for Conservative leader O’Toole in these numbers continues to be: look for ways to better connect with the mood of worried and hopeful voters without sounding like you are preoccupied with gaining political advantage over your opponents, or prosecuting issues the public sees as marginal given the importance of the pandemic.”

According to David Coletto: “Post-budget, we don’t see much movement in any of the key political tracking questions. The Liberals continue to hold a sizeable lead over the Conservatives built on strength in BC, Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada.”

And don’t miss any of our research and analysis, plus get our weekly Worth A Look newsletter. Sign up today.

Interested in an exclusive polling brief on the road to the 2021 federal election? Find out more

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

Find out more about what we are doing to help clients respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 2,201 Canadian adults from April 20 to 25, 2021. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Canadian PoliticsCOVID-19MediaPolls

Third Wave and More Restrictions Impact Happiness but a Happier Future Might be Right Around the Corner

When Canada moved into the third wave of the Pandemic, happiness in the country faltered. The optimism that accompanied more vaccine arrivals and the early spring in most of the country soured. Not everyone, however, is unhappy. Those who have been already vaccinated represent a significant group of happy Canadians and these two trends tell us a lot about the public mood.

As of April 21st, the average happiness score is 60.7. Not the lowest we have recorded but close. The drop in happiness follows a peak in happiness in mid-March. Rising case counts, pressure on our health care system and new restrictions in most of the country sent happiness tumbling.

Nowhere is this clearer than in Ontario. At 57.5, Ontario is the least happy place in Canada right now. Testament to the fact that happiness is a key element of the public mood at the same time that happiness was falling we also noticed key changes in evaluations of Ford and a tightening of the Ontario horserace.

Across a number of indicators, we can see that happiness dropped because Canadians became less likely to feel a sense of personal fulfillment, optimism for the future and excitement about their day. Naturally, these are exactly the kinds of things you would expect to be impacted by rising case counts and public health restrictions.

The pandemic, and how our governments respond, is unlikely to be the only driver of happiness but there is no question it is one of the most important right now. Consider that the mood of Canadians is very different depending on their vaccination status. The happiness score for those who are already vaccinated is 65.3 compared with 58.7 for those who have not been vaccinated. Being vaccinated clearly gives one more “hope” and boosts happiness.

UPSHOT

According to Richard Jenkins: Progress on the vaccination front will no doubt hasten the end of the third wave of the pandemic and start us on the road to recovery. Perhaps Canadians were a little too hopeful that the end was near in March when happiness rose to its high point. What turned out to be a false start on the way to more happiness does give us an idea of how happy a post-pandemic Canada could be. And the high happiness level among those already vaccinated suggests it could be much happier than now.

A positive public mood, especially a euphoric one, has implications across the board. How much will it spur consumer spending? Will it increase public trust and commitment to public goods? Will political leaders get a pass on their pandemic performance by a happier public? I think we are going to find out soon.

And don’t miss any of our research and analysis, plus get our weekly Worth A Look newsletter. Sign up today.

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 1,900 Canadians aged 18 and over from April 16th to 21st, 2021. A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.

This poll was conducted and paid for by Abacus Data.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

Find out more about what we are doing to help clients respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

COVID-19MediaPolls

Doug Ford’s negatives rise 9-points in a week as public responds to new restrictions

Listen to David Coletto’s new podcast inFocus with David Coletto

As part of our national survey completed this morning, we asked some questions exclusively of the 1007 respondents living in Ontario. Note, this survey was completed entirely after Premier Ford’s press conference on Friday afternoon.

Here’s a quick summary of what we found:

In a week, Premier Ford’s negatives have increased by 9-points. He is more unpopular than he’s been at any point since start the pandemic.

Overall, 46% of Ontarians have a negative view of the Premier, up 9-points since last week while 28% have a positive impression (down 11 since last week).

Mr. Ford is viewed negatively now by 22% of those who voted PC in 2018 (that’s up 9 points in a week). A majority of Liberal, NDP, and half of Green voters have a negative view of the Premier.

Perhaps most troubling for the Premier is that his negatives are rising among those who self-identify on the right of the political spectrum. Among those on the right, 35% have a negative view of the Premier (up 12-points in a week). 3 in 10 who self-identify on the centre-right have a negative view (up 5 since last week).

He’s also angered those on the left side of the spectrum, 78% of whom have a negative view (up 33-points!).

In short, his announcement on Friday had the effect of upsetting voters on all sides of the spectrum, including his base on the political right of the province.

Despite the drop in Mr. Ford’s approval, vote intentions have not changed much. The Ontario Liberals and PCs remain statistically tied with the NDP in third.

If an election were held at the time of the survey, the Ontario Liberals would get 35%, the PCs 34%, the NDP 23% and the Greens 5%. There is almost no change from our previous survey that was completed on April 14.

Regionally, the Liberals have a slight lead in Toronto, while the PCs and Liberals are statistically tied in all other regions except for eastern Ontario where the PCs have the lead.

The big story is vote intention by age. If only those under 45 voted, the Ontario Liberals would likely win a majority. However, if only those over 44 voted, the PCs would win. The age divide in vote intention is very wide.

UPSHOT

In less than a week, the Premier’s image has soured substantially. Almost half the province has a negative view of him, the highest since the start of the pandemic. He’s upset not just his usual opponents and detractors, but also a large part of his base.

So far, this hasn’t translated into a decline in vote share for the PCs. But they remain 7 points back from their share of the vote in the previous election while the Liberals have rebounded into a virtual tie for the leader. If anything, the increased anger among centre-left voters could encourage consolidation around one of the alternatives. If that happens, the PCs and Mr. Ford will have a very hard time being re-elected.

We will continue to monitor the situation in Ontario.

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ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

Find out more about what we are doing to help clients respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1,007 Ontario residents from April 16 to 21, 2021. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

COVID-19MediaPolls

Ontario PCs and Liberals tied as frustration over vaccine rollout and 3rd wave rises

Listen to David Coletto’s new podcast inFocus with David Coletto

As part of our national survey completed on April 14, we asked some questions exclusively of the 817 respondents living in Ontario. Note, this survey was done prior to yesterday’s announcement on new restrictions in the province and serves as a good benchmark to assess how people will react.

Here’s a quick summary of what we found:

The Ontario PCs and Liberals are tied at 34% with the Ontario NDP in third at 23%.

If an election were held at the time of the survey, the PCs would get 34%, the Ontario Liberals 34%, the NDP 23% and the Greens 5%. Since our last survey in January, the PC vote share is unchanged, the Liberals are up 5, while the NDP is down 2.

Regionally, the Liberals have a large lead in Toronto, the PCs are slightly ahead in the GTHA and eastern Ontario while the Southwest region is a close three-way race.

The PCs lead among those over 30 while trailing well back of the Liberals and NDP among those aged 18 to 29.

Doug Ford’s personal image is net positive, but down slightly from January

Doug Ford continues to find more people having a positive view of them than a negative one. 37% have a positive view while 34% have a negative one. His positives and negatives are largely unchanged since January.

Among those who voted PC in 2018, 71% have a positive view of the Premier while 13% have a negative view. A minority of Liberal, NDP, and Green supporters have a positive view of Mr. Ford, something we didn’t see prior to the pandemic.

Almost half of Ontarians give the provincial government negative grades on its handling of certain aspects of the pandemic, especially its vaccine rollout.

When asked to rate the provincial government’s handling of vaccinations, 46% feel the government has done a poor or terrible job, while 24% feel it has done a good or excellent job. The rest (30%) think it has done an acceptable job.

When asked about provincial COVID restrictions, 45% felt the provincial government’s restrictions were not stringent enough while only 18% felt they were too stringent. There isn’t much difference across voter groups.

UPSHOT

Going into yesterday’s announcement by Premier Ford on new restrictions, his government was facing substantial headwinds. Almost half were dissatisfied with his handling of the vaccine rollout. Far more felt that restrictions were not stringent enough even before yesterday’s announcement.

Politically, the PCs are now tied with the Ontario Liberals and while Mr. Ford’s personal numbers remain above water, they are moving downward. We will wait to see whether yesterday’s new restrictions ease the public’s anxiety or add fuel to their growing frustration with the Premier and his government’s handling of the pandemic.

And don’t miss any of our research and analysis, plus get our weekly Worth A Look newsletter. Sign up today.

Interested in an exclusive polling brief after the federal budget? Find out more

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

Find out more about what we are doing to help clients respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 817 Ontario residents from April 9 to 15, 2021. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.5%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Onatio’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

COVID-19MediaPolls

Vaccine hesitancy in Canada: How much is there, who are the hesitant, and why are they hesitant

Listen to David Coletto’s new podcast inFocus with David Coletto

This week we completed a national survey of 1,981 Canadian adults (from April 9 to 14) with a series of questions on Covid-19 vaccine hesitancy. This work is being done as part of broad Task Group working to promote vaccine acceptance, under the banner “Faster. Together”. More information is included about this effort at the end of this release.

CURRENT STATE OF HESITANCY

Today, 8% of Canadian adults say they will never take a vaccine for Covid-19. A majority (64%) either have already had a shot or will take one as soon as it is available to them.

This leaves 28% who currently say they would “prefer to wait a bit to see how the vaccine works out as others take it”, or “would prefer not to take one, but could be persuaded to”.

In November, before vaccines were available, 56% were hesitant and 11% ruled out ever taking one. In short, we have seen less hesitancy since the fall, but little change during the March-April period.

Hesitancy is higher than average in Alberta, among those with high school education, and among those in the 30-44 age group. People who self-describe as “right of centre” are considerably more likely than those on the left to reject the idea of being vaccinated.

Hesitancy rates are influenced by concerns about side effects and are different depending on the specific vaccine in question. Since the beginning of March, comfort levels with the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines have increased, while comfort with the Astra Zeneca and Johnson and Johnson products has declined.

The most important reason for hesitancy is a worry that the vaccines were created quickly and that the long-term effects might not be fully known. Second on the list of drivers of hesitancy is a fear of blood clots, followed by fear of flu-like side effects.

Relatively important in the list of reasons people are hesitant is the idea of waiting till something other than the Astra Zeneca vaccine was on offer to you. 26% of the hesitant say this is a major factor in their hesitancy.

Different groups in society have different factors that rank higher or lower in affecting their hesitancy. As an example, fear of blood clots is significantly higher among women than among men and especially high among those aged 45-59. The idea that “if others take it, maybe I don’t have to” is especially common among those aged 30-44.

UPSHOT

“The Covid-19 battleground is about the speed of vaccinations and the speed of spread of variants of the virus. Making sure everyone takes a vaccine when one is available is critical. Therefore understanding and addressing the root causes can help speed a return to more normal life in Canada. The most important thing in this regard, according to our most current data, is reassuring people about the safety of vaccines, the low level of risk and helping build confidence in the array of vaccine solutions on offer. These results are a clear signal that the public is highly attentive not only to the great promise vaccinations hold for an exit from the pandemic, but to stories about side effects.”

FASTER TOGETHER TASK GROUP

The Faster Together Task Group is co-chaired by Bruce Anderson, Chairman of Abacus Data and Hassan Yussuf, President of the Canadian Labour Congress and includes participants from the private and public sectors, labour movement and civil society.

It has been struck as a voluntary “coalition of the willing” who are interested in helping promote vaccine acceptance in Canada as a crucial way to help speed a return to regular life. The group welcomes any organizations that may be interested in being part of this effort and which can help reach a broader audience is encouraged to reach out and learn more: banderson@abacusdata.ca.

The public opinion research in support of this Task Group is being supported financially by the Canadian Life and Health Insurance Association.

And don’t miss any of our research and analysis, plus get our weekly Worth A Look newsletter. Sign up today.

Interested in an exclusive polling brief after the federal budget? Find out more

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

Find out more about what we are doing to help clients respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1,981 Canadian adults from April 9 to 14, 2021. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

COVID-19MediaPolls

A grim mood as Canada grapples with another COVID wave: Liberals maintain lead over the Conservatives

Listen to David Coletto’s new podcast inFocus with David Coletto

We just completed a national survey of 1,981 Canadian adults (from April 9 to 14). Here’s what the survey found:

CURRENT VOTING INTENTION

If an election were held now, the Liberals would win 37% of the vote, the Conservatives 29%, the NDP 19%, the Green Party 6% and the BQ at 27% in Quebec.

In BC, the Liberals and Conservatives have pulled somewhat ahead of the NDP, and the Conservatives continue to hold wide leads in the Prairies. The Liberals have a 13-point lead in Ontario, an 11-point lead over the BQ in Quebec, and a 23-point lead in Atlantic Canada.

LEADER IMPRESSIONS

Justin Trudeau enjoys a positive impression among 36% and finds negative impressions among 39%, for a net score of -3. His net score is -11 in BC, -23 in Alberta, +5 in Ontario, +4 in Quebec and +18 in Atlantic Canada.

Erin O’Toole enjoys a positive impression among 19% and finds negative impressions among 32%, for a net score of -13. His net score is -10 in BC, -7 in Alberta, -15 in Ontario, -21 in Quebec and -22 in Atlantic Canada.

Jagmeet Singh enjoys a positive impression among 35% and finds negative impressions among 23% for a net +12. His net score is +8 in BC, +4 in Alberta, +20 in Ontario, +3 in Quebec and +19 in Atlantic Canada.

Compared to the results in our last wave of surveying we see a modest improvement for Mr. Singh and no statistically significant change for the other two party leaders.

DESIRE FOR CHANGE

Today, 39% of voters say it’s definitely time for a change in government. Another 26% say “it would be good to have change but doesn’t matter to me that much”. This total of 65% who would prefer to see a change is 4 points less than at the time of the last election, and the intensity of the desire for change is 13 points lower.

In total, 34% say they prefer the Liberals to be re-elected, 3-points higher than at the end of the 2019 election campaign.

Among the 39% of respondents who definitely want change, the Conservatives would win just over half of those votes (55%) with the rest splitting this way: 21% NDP, 7% Green, and 7% BQ.

Among the 26% of respondents who have a softer preference for a change, the NDP (29%) would win a bigger share of those votes than the Conservatives (21%), the Green Party (11%) and the BQ (9%). While expressing a preference for a change in government, 28% would Liberal given the alternatives as they see things today.

STABLE POLITICAL ASSESSMENTS; GROWING ANXIETY ABOUT COVID

Concern about the pandemic is growing again, as new daily case counts, ICU patients, and lockdowns impact much of the country. Forty-three percent (43%) say over the past few days they have become more worried (up 9 since the end of March and up 18 since early March).

Regional variations are slight. Liberal (50%), NDP (47%), BQ (46%), and Green (44%) supporters are more likely to show rising worry than Conservative supporters (36%).

Since early March, concern about getting COVID personally is up 3-points, worries about there not being enough hospital beds if needed is up 8-points, and concerns about new strains spreading is up 6-points.

Also of note, 38% of those who have received at least one vaccine shot say they are worried about getting COVID themselves.

With the evidence of risk that younger people face with the new variants, concern about getting COVID is now highest among those aged 18 to 29.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “Pandemic not politics – that’s the public expectation in terms of the focus of political leaders right now. A tired and anxious population is unlikely to show any signs of happiness during this latest wave, realistically, we are more measuring levels of frustration and impatience than appreciation and support. Within that context, the federal government is – if not pleasing many – not driving voters away.

Despite the economic, health and other challenges brought on by the pandemic, the Conservatives have – so far – failed to make the case that changing governments is urgent or that they would do a better job than the Liberals. In some ways, the bigger risk for Mr. Trudeau is bleeding of support to the NDP, whose leader has little scar tissue and who may be able to take advantage of the unique circumstance where every social program can seem more important, urgent and affordable. As the federal budget looms, this may be the more important battleground to watch than the one featuring the Liberals and Conservatives.”

According to David Coletto: “As we head towards Canada’s first COVID budget, the public’s mood has become far more anxious and concerned about the pandemic. Despite about 1 in 4 Canadians receiving at least one shot of a vaccine, fear about getting the virus is higher than it was in early March.

Although people’s views on the pandemic have shifted over the past few weeks, we find stability in our political outlook. The Liberals continue to hold a sizeable 8-point lead over the Conservatives. The federal government’s handling of the pandemic remains generally positive although frustrations about the speed of vaccinations are rising with both the federal and provincial governments.

The desire for change remains largely unchanged from our last wave which is making it difficult for either Erin O’Toole or Jagmeet Singh to gain any traction. For Mr. O’Toole, he remains the most unpopular leader in the country – as measured by his net approval. For Mr. Singh, the country’s most popular leader – solid images in BC, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada have not translated into increased support.

However, Mr. Singh’s popularity is worth keeping an eye on. A big mistake by Mr. Trudeau or a poor public reaction to next week’s budget could create an opportunity for Mr. Singh and the NDP to seize on. But until more people feel that a change in government is really needed, getting people to give the NDP a look will be a challenge.”

And don’t miss any of our research and analysis, plus get our weekly Worth A Look newsletter. Sign up today.

Interested in an exclusive polling brief after the federal budget? Find out more

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

Find out more about what we are doing to help clients respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1,981 Canadian adults from April 9 to 14, 2021. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Canadian PoliticsCOVID-19MediaPolls