AFFORDABILITY OF MEDICINE AND GROUP/PRIVATE INSURANCE PLANS

Today, 77% say that the medicines they need are affordable or “affordable enough” while 23% say they are unaffordable.  Those who do not have private or group health insurance coverage are about three times more likely to say the medicines they need are unaffordable.

In our survey, 70% have some form of private or group health insurance that provides coverage over and above the health services provided to all Canadians.

Among this group, 85% have a co-pay requirement when they are filling a prescription, all or some of the time. Those who have a co-pay requirement are almost unanimously of the view that the co-pay amount is affordable or affordable enough.

The large majority of those with private/group health insurance are satisfied with the role their plan plays in making medicine affordable and in terms of the range of medicines covered.

SUPPORT FOR FEDERAL TASK FORCE

Most Canadians (55%) believe that the work of the Task Force appointed to find ways to “ensure that everyone in Canada can afford the medicines they need” should be a high priority, and 10 people support the idea of the Task Force for every 1 who is opposed.

When considering the outcomes from the work of the Task Force and any government initiatives to flow from it, Canadians are broadly hoping that costs for taxpayers will be contained, that no one will be required to switch from their insurance plan to a government plan, that nothing should be done to put group benefits at risk of cancellation by employers.  Seventy-five percent believe it is quite or very important that “government shouldn’t spend on those who already have prescription drug coverage.”

CONCLUSIONS

A broad majority of Canadians support the government’s decision to examine ways to help make medicines affordable for all Canadians.  The majority of those who currently have private or group health insurance say that they find medicine affordable enough today – which explains why they would expect government to focus on those who lack such coverage.

At this juncture, those with health benefits insurance do not appear to be looking for government to provide them with more support and hope that government will not do anything to put their benefits at risk, or cost more in tax dollars than needed.

METHODOLOGY

On behalf of the Canadian Life and Health Insurance Association, Abacus Data conducted a nationwide online public opinion study among 2000 adult Canadians from July 18 to 22, 2018.

A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from randomly selected Canadian adults who are members of the Maru Voice Canada online panel.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.  The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

It’s too early to know how Max Bernier’s full-blown attack on the Conservative Party of Canada will play out, but in our latest polling, we explored how people react to his arguments about that party and his decision to launch a new party based on some key policies.

Readers should bear in mind that all we can do at this point is measure the potential impact if Mr. Bernier were able to organize a slate of candidates and make his arguments heard – neither of which is a given.

With those caveats, here’s what we find:

Before introducing the subject of Mr. Bernier’s announcement, we measured voting intention and found them almost identical to the wave of research we released on Friday.  The Liberals have a modest lead with 37% of the vote, followed by the Conservatives at 33% and the NDP at 18%.

After describing Mr. Bernier’s criticism of the Conservatives and informing respondents about his intention to form a new party which would reduce immigration, end supply management and avoids retaliatory tariffs against the US, we asked voting intentions again.

In an election with such a Bernier Party on offer, the Liberal lead would widen from 4 to 6 points nationally, but with potentially more significant impacts on a regional basis. Thirteen percent say they would vote for this Bernier Party with half of them coming from the Conservative Party support today.

Bernier could pull votes from all demographic groups but more so among men, and younger voters.  Crucially, here are some impacts on a regional basis:

BC:  Bernier could win 10% support, drawing both from the Liberals who would drop to 27% and the Conservatives who would drop to 20%, leaving the NDP ahead with 30%.

Ontario:  Bernier could win 11%, which would turn what is now a dead heat into a 5-point lead for the Liberals.  The Liberals would hold 36%, the Conservatives 31% the NDP 17%.

Quebec: Bernier could win 15%, with the second largest vote total, heavily impacting the potential for the Conservatives.  The Liberals would be looking at 41% support, followed by Bernier at 15%, the Bloc at 13% and the Conservatives and NDP tied at 11%.

We tested reactions to three of the arguments made by Mr. Bernier as to why he decided to leave the party. We asked respondents whether they agreed with those statements personally.

“The Conservative Party is too intellectually corrupt to be reformed”. 

Across the country, 55% agree with that argument, as do 21% of current Conservative Party voters, and 22% of those who voted Conservative in 2015.  Agreement is 55% in BC, 54% in Ontario and 60% in Quebec.

“The Conservative Party has abandoned conservatives – it does not represent them anymore and has nothing of substance to offer Canadians looking for a political alternative.”

Across the country, 54% agree with that argument, as do 29% of current Conservative Party voters, and 30% of those who voted Conservative in 2015.  Agreement is 55% in BC, 59% in Ontario and 55% in Quebec.

“The whole strategy of the Conservative Party is to play identity politics, pander to various interest groups, and buy votes with promises, just like the Liberals”.

Across the country, 62% agree with that argument, as do 36% of current Conservative Party voters, and 40% of those who voted Conservative in 2015.  Agreement is 59% in BC, 62% in Ontario and a striking 72% in Quebec.

Asked how they would react if Mr. Bernier formed a new political party “that would be opposed to retaliatory tariffs on the United States, eliminate Canada’s dairy and poultry supply management systems and reduce immigration levels, 6% say they would be certain to vote for that party another 10% likely to, and 33% say they might consider doing so.

Certain/likely Bernier voters range from a low of 12% in Atlantic Canada to a high of 20% in Quebec.  Men are almost twice as likely to be in this group, and Bernier’s potential is higher among those under 45 than those above that age.

A total of 18% of current Conservative voters say they are certain or likely to vote for the Bernier Party as described, another 34% say would consider it, 22% say they are unlikely to.  Just 22% say they are certain not to.

UPSHOT

Bearing in mind that we are measuring reaction to an idea on a drawing board, and there is no certainty that Mr. Bernier will be able to build and market a party with these messages coming through clearly, this poll is by nature speculative and should be read as such.

Having said that, the results show that a considerable minority of Conservative voters find Mr. Bernier and his message attractive and confirm that he has the potential to divide and weaken the prospects of the Conservative Party heading into the 2019 election. The most important impacts could be felt in Ontario and Quebec, where 199 of 338 seats are at stake.  Seats the Conservatives might be considering potential gains could have a greater chance of falling into the Liberal column.

Given that 20% and 40% of current conservative voters agree to some extent with the views expressed by Mr. Bernier, Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer can ill afford to ignore this threat.  However, if he puts too much emphasis on trying to assuage these sentiments, he risks alienating mainstream voters who do not find Mr. Bernier’s arguments appealing, and also drawing constant attention to the fact that there are divisions within his Party.  Mr. Bernier may or may not turn out to be a spoiler in 2019, but he undoubtedly spoiled some of the narrative that Conservatives were hoping their Halifax Convention would deliver.

There is, of course, a good possibility that nothing will come of Mr. Bernier’s announcement, in terms of a new party being prepared to compete in the 2019 election in which case the only issue will be whether the criticisms he raised about the Conservative policies and leader remain as factors that will stall or reverse the Party’s recent gains.

Methodology

Our survey was conducted online with 1,000 Canadians aged 18 and over from August 24 to 25, 2018. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey for a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is
+/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.  The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

We are about a year away from the start of the 2019 federal election. Last week, we polled 1,500 Canadian adults on how they are seeing their political choices and the issues that they are most concerned about.

Here are the highlights as we see them:

Our latest polling on the national political mood shows the Liberal Party would win 37% support if a vote were held now, followed by the Conservatives at 33% and the NDP with 18%. This is largely unchanged from last month and mimics the numbers we found in March.

Regionally, we see a significant lead for the Liberals in Quebec, and a dead heat in Ontario, the two provinces that combined will choose 199 of the 338 Members of Parliament next fall.  The Conservatives have a big lead in Alberta, while the Liberals continue to do well in BC and Atlantic Canada.

Some 41% say they think the country is on the right track (42% last month), and 44% approve of the performance of the federal government (the same number as last month).

The government enjoys better approval ratings among those aged under 45.

Today, 43% have a positive opinion of Justin Trudeau and 36% have a negative opinion (unchanged from last month).  For Andrew Scheer, the sentiment is 26% positive and 25% negative, and for Jagmeet Singh results are 22% positive and 26% negative.

We explored the current level of concern about a variety of topical issues and found that Donald Trump, climate change and health care top the list of 9 items we tested, with gun violence and cannabis legalization ranking 9^th and 10^th.  Housing affordability ranked 4^th and the number of border crossings ranked 5^th.

For voters under 45, Trump, climate change, and housing affordability are the top three issues while gun violence, border crossing, and cannabis legalization are at the bottom of the list.

For those 45 and over, Donald Trump, the health care system, and housing affordablility are in the top three. Concern about the number of border crossing is higher among these respondents while concern about climate change is somewhat lower.

Among Liberal voters, Trump, climate change and health care top the list, with border crossings, debt, and cannabis at the bottom. Among Conservatives, border crossings and debt are at the top of the list, and climate change is at the bottom.

We also isolated some differences across regions with a focus on those who are extremely concerned about these the issues we tested.

For those living in Canada’s largest cities, gun violence is far more likely to be a concern than those living in other communities. Big city residents are also 5 points more likely to be extremely concerned about housing affordability – although this gap is smaller than some might expect and suggests that housing affordability concerns are not just isolated to Canada’s largest cities.

Big differences also exist between Ontario and Alberta and Alberta and BC, demonstrating the challenge parties will have to appeal to voters in these provinces.

Ontario residents are three times as likely to be extremely concerned about gun violence and twice as likely to be concerned about housing affordability, compared with Albertans.

Despite its shared border, Alberta and BC residents differ in their preoccupations. Housing affordability is a major issue for almost half of BC residents while only 9% of Albertans feel the same. Albertans show comparatively higher concern about government debt and border crossings.

UPSHOT

The race to the 2019 election is starting to take shape and at this point, the Liberals face a highly competitive Conservative Party. Whether Maxime Bernier’s decision to leave the Conservative Party has the potential to undermine the competitiveness of Mr. Scheer’s Tories will be interesting to watch, especially in Quebec, where the Conservative brand had been seeing an uptick in support.

The issue landscape seems unusually crowded and varied heading into the coming election year.  In different provinces, by community size, age, and along party lines, a variety of different issues that have the potential to motivate voter support: at this point, there isn’t a single galvanizing and unifying issue.

Without a doubt, Donald Trump continues to dominate the news for Canadian voters and managing that complex relationship will be an important predictor of confidence in the Liberals. We also note that climate change continues to show a heightened level of public concern, no doubt again this year influenced by news of wildfires that continue to burn in much of BC and Northern Ontario.  Many voters will expect any candidate seeking their vote to offer ideas about combating climate change.

At this point, the border crossing issue is of much higher concern for Conservative voters than others.  Supporters of both other parties, and certainly big city voters under 45, are more likely to be looking for solutions to housing affordability.

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 1,500 Canadians aged 18 and over from August 15 to 20, 2018. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey for a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20.  The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

With a little over a year to go before the start of the 2019 federal election, we polled 2,000 Canadian adults last week about how they are seeing their political choices.

Here are the highlights as we see them:

THE SITUATION TODAY

Today, 43% say they would prefer to see the Liberals re-elected next year, and 57% would prefer a change in government.  Last July 50% said they would prefer the Liberals to be re-elected.  This shift means the landscape is more competitive today, but worth bearing in mind that the Liberals were elected with just under 40% of the vote in 2015.

Today 52% say they would consider voting Liberal, 51% would consider voting Conservative up and 49% are open to considering the NDP, an unusually close pattern among the three parties.

If a vote was held tomorrow, 36% would vote Liberal, 34% Conservative, and 19% NDP.  We see competitive races in Ontario and BC (Liberals and Conservatives), while the Liberals lead in Atlantic Canada and Quebec and the Conservatives have a lead on the Prairies.

Today, 42% say the country is heading in the right direction, 44% approve of the job being done by the federal government 43% have a positive impression of Prime Minister Trudeau.

Positive impressions of Conservative leader Andrew Scheer are on the rise but so are his negatives. Impressions of Jagmeet Singh are moving more decidedly negative with his negatives now seven points higher than positives.

THE CHALLENGE FACING THE INCUMBENTS

We explored further among the 57% who say they are inclined to want a change in government in October 2019, and here’s what we found:

When asked if the government could do anything to change their mind, 14% (or 8% of the population overall) said “yes, for sure” while another 33% (19% of the population overall) said “there could be”.  In other words, the number of “hard change” voters is about 30% in total.

Among voters who say they are inclined to vote for a change but could be persuaded to vote to re-elect, 30% voted Liberal in 2015, only 15% would today.  35% voted CPC – 41% would today.  26% voted NDP – 29% would today.

We asked people to tell us which of several potential factors had been contributing to their desire to change the government next year.  Overall, fiscal and tax issues rank high in importance as do immigration and refugees issues and the PM’s trip to India.

However, what is more instructive is to look at separately at the change voters who are leaning toward the NDP and Conservatives.  Among current NDP voters who say they could be persuaded to re-elect the Liberals, the Trans Mountain pipeline is at the top of the list of grievances with the government along with electoral reform and fiscal management.

Among those who say they will vote Conservative but could be persuaded to vote to re-elect, debt/deficits, immigration and refugees and the PM’s trip to India rank one-two-three followed by carbon pricing, taxes, and economic policies.  Conservatives are much more likely to be concerned with the PMs vacation in the Caribbean compared to New Democrats.

THE UPSHOT

Bruce Anderson: “For the most part, polling during a government’s mandate reflects how people are reacting to the government – and not so much about its competitors.  As Canada moves closer to the 2019 election, people will start to evaluate not only the incumbents but the alternatives.

Today’s numbers show ample opportunity for the Conservatives to have a successful election next year, but also show that more people are satisfied than dissatisfied with the direction of the country, the performance of the government and the Prime Minister.  Regional combats in Ontario and BC are shaping up to be where the fight will be won or lost – with plenty of seats on the line, and lots of votes will be up for grabs. A considerable number of voters who’ve shifted rightward from the Liberals aren’t particularly dug in or angry. And many of those who have drifted left may find themselves faced with a tough conundrum – voting to punish the Liberals for the Trans Mountain pipeline might risk electing a government that would kill environmental measures such as carbon pricing.”

David Coletto: “The Liberals are still well positioned about a year before the next election begins. But some storm clouds are approaching including Conservative gains in Quebec, weaker support among older voters, and rising concerns about immigration and refugees, especially among Conservative-leaning voters who are open to voting Liberal.

The pools of accessible voters for all three parties are closer in size than they have been since the last election and increasing volatility in Ontario and Quebec means predicting what will happen over the next 12 months is increasingly difficult.

We can no longer say that the Liberals are the front-runners. But we are seeing a public opinion environment that is more competitive and one where the issue space is forming around fiscal management, immigration and refugees, and energy and the environment.”

Methodology

 Our survey was conducted online with 2,000 Canadians aged 18 and over from July 18 to 22, 2018. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from randomly selected Canadian adults who are members of the Maru Voice Canada online panel.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys.   The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.  The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.