In the latest round of survey work by Clean Energy Canada and Abacus Data, for every person who thinks oil and gas will be very important for Canada’s economy in 10 years, twice as many feel that way about clean energy.
The results paint a picture of a population that believes oil and gas matter to today’s economy, but a striking number also see the clean energy sector as highly important. What’s more, the public tends to believe that clean energy will become more important over time, while oil and gas will recede in importance.
Key findings include:
Across the country, roughly equal numbers say the oil and gas sector and the clean energy sector are important to the national economy. In Alberta, the perception is that oil and gas is more important to the national economy than clean energy. In the rest of the country, the opposite is true.
In every part of the country but the Prairies, more people think clean energy is important to their provincial economy than oil and gas.
When asked about the importance of each of these sectors to the Canadian economy 10 years from now, 28% say that oil and gas will be very important, while 59% say the same thing about the clean energy sector. There has been a striking increase since November, 2020 in the proportion of Canadians who believe clean energy will be important to Canada’s economy in the future.
While public opinion is somewhat split on whether the federal government and provincial governments are doing the right amount to help shift the country towards a cleaner economy, there are roughly three Canadians who would like to see more action in this direction for every one who would like to see less. Among Albertans and Conservative voters, only about a third think the government of Canada is doing too much.
The same is true when it comes to feelings about provincial governments. Again, it is interesting to note that 46% think the Alberta government is not doing enough while 11% think it is doing too much.
CANADA’S CLIMATE TARGET
When told that Canada’s target to reduce emissions is 40-45% below the 2005 level, by the year 2030, 29% say they feel that target is too ambitious, and 21% say it is not ambitious enough – with the plurality saying it is about the right level of ambition. In May of 2021, 33% felt that target was too ambitious, and 15% thought it was not ambitious enough.
In Alberta, 45% say the target is too ambitious, while a slim majority say it is about right (37%) or not ambitous enough (19%). Across generations, feelings about the target are largely similar with pluralities or majorities saying the target is about right. Among Conservative voters, there is a split, with 51% saying the target is too ambitious.
Two out of three people believe that if Canada were to meet that target, “our economy will become stronger and more competitive along the way,” while only a third (32%) believe we will become weaker and less competitive. A majority of Albertans also believe the Canadian economy would become stronger and more competitive.
UPSHOT
According to Bruce Anderson, Chairman of Abacus Data: “Canadians see the shift towards cleaner economies as a global trend and one that is gathering momentum and creating economic opportunity along the way. While there are regional and partisan differences that are worth noting there is probably more consensus on the direction Canada should pursue than some might expect. The question for most people is not whether the shift to a cleaner economy is inevitable or desirable but how well Canada will tack with this trend and take advantage of it rather than resist it.”
According toTrevor Melanson, Communications Director of Clean Energy Canada: “Canadians are witnessing governments, major automakers, and big corporations compete on the world stage as they race to secure market share in the growing clean energy sector. We asked these same questions in 2020, and in just 14 months, the number of Canadians who said the clean energy sector would be very important in 10 years shot up 19 points. Building Canada’s clean economy has gone from being from a nice idea to a necessary reality.”
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from January 20 to 25th, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
Two out of three (68%) interviewed in our latest nationwide poll feel they have “very little in common with how the protestors in Ottawa see things”, while 32% say they “have a lot in common.”
Those who are more likely to feel aligned with the protestors are People’s Party voters (82%), Green Party voters (57%), and Conservative Party voters (46%). Large majorities of Liberal (75%), NDP (77%), and BQ (81%) voters say they have little in common with the protestors.
More people felt that the protest came off as “offensive and inappropriate” (57%) than believe it was “respectful and appropriate”. Again Conservative supporters were divided on this question, with 45% saying it was offensive and inappropriate. People’s Party supporters were almost unanimous (93%) in feeling it was respectful and appropriate.
None of the federal leaders got great reviews from the public in terms of how they handled the convoy situation, but Erin O’Toole was given the worst marks, with 59% finding his approach lacking, compared to 53% for Justin Trudeau, and 45% for Jagmeet Singh.
UPSHOT
According to Bruce Anderson: “I think these numbers reflect a combination of things – clearly a good number of people share frustration with the seemingly endless pandemic and the measures that are making life uncomfortable, and some find themselves aligned with this part of the protestors’ message. At the same time, a substantial majority don’t feel they can identify with everything about the protest and many were turned off by the methods and messages that they observed from the convoy, once it arrived in Ottawa. Dealing with the convoy was not a winning situation for any party leader, but Erin O’Toole left more people disappointed than his rivals.”
According to David Coletto: “Public reaction and sympathy to the convoy and demonstration in Ottawa and across the country appear divisive and correlated to one’s partisan orientation – although not perfectly. People’s, Green, and Conservative party supporters are more sympathetic and identify with those occupying downtown Ottawa than others. And while a sizeable minority feels the demonstration has been largely respectful, public reaction is highly fluid and could shift as the convoy continues to occupy downtown Ottawa and disrupt traffic at the Canada-US border.
The reaction is more likely the result of growing impatience with the pandemic and disruptions it has had on people’s lives. The 32/68 divide is a good proxy for where Canadians stand on many aspects of the pandemic debate, including vaccine mandates, lockdowns, and on-going restrictions.
Politically, there appear to be no real winners. Erin O’Toole may have lost his job because of the division over the convoy within his party, while Prime Minister Trudeau finds widespread dissatisfaction with his handling of the issue. If anything, the events of the past week just add to the collective frustrations Canadians are feeling overall. “
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 1,410 Canadian adults from January 31 to February 2, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.7%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
As a public opinion and social researcher, I was of course intrigued.
And so, at the beginning of this year, I conducted a large national survey of Canadian adults (n=2,210) and explored several aspects of the economic and social experiences that the shortage economy may be having on Canadians.
Specifically, I wanted to try and answer two questions. How are Canadians experiencing the shortage economy and what does it mean for leaders?
This data is also part of a webinar I’m delivering with TEC Canada later today.
In my view, supply chain disruptions, empty shelves, and rising prices are a core part of the shortage economy. However, we also have to consider the impact of labour shortages, worker fatigue and burnout, and how all these factors are impacting both consumers and citizens (from a political perspective).
The implications of this research are pretty clear.
Obviously, we will need to start learning to do more with less.
But we need to also recognize that employees and workers are empowered (even if they don’t know it yet) and are coming to work with a different frame of mind. Many are tired, burned out, and looking for real meaning in their work.
The customer experience has also changed. Labour and product shortages mean wait times are longer and full of friction than many have come to expect. The rapid shift to e-commerce has raised the bar to a standard that many brick-and-mortar retailers and service providers are having a challenge matching.
We are moving more sharply into the politics of inflation – where public concerns focusing on the cost of living and the ability of political leaders to deliver relief are juxtaposed with budget deficits and fears of stoking inflation even more.
Overall, this is a very challenging environment to lead.
SHORTAGE ECONOMY: THE LABOUR MARKET
Although the “Great Resignation” took hold in the United States, evidence suggests the same phenomenon has not yet happened in Canada.
Labour participation rates rebounded far quicker in Canada and our labour market tightness (number of job vacancies per job seeker) is nowhere near where the United States is.
Moreover, Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey finds that the number of Canadians leaving their jobs voluntarily and because they are dissatisfied with their work, is much lower than it was at the start of the pandemic. It’s clear we aren’t seeing a “Great Resignation” in Canada.
In my survey, 18% of employed Canadians said they changed jobs in the past 12 months, including 9% who said they quit a job even when they didn’t have another one lined up. This behaviour was much more common among those under 45 – with 16% of 18 to 30-year-olds saying they quit without another gig ready.
But more interesting in my data is the reasonwhy people changed their jobs. Going beyond “dissatisfaction” as the Statistics Canada survey measures, I found that the top reason for job changers was they “needed a change – the work they were doing wasn’t interesting”. More than 60% of job changers cited this as a reason and it was the top reason for workers over and under 45 years old.
Younger job changers were more likely to report being offered more money – logical given younger workers are more likely to seek higher wages and promotions. But they were also more likely to report wanting more flexibility. Six in ten job changers under 45 reported the desire for more flexibility as a reason why they changed jobs. This is not new, but a preference the pandemic has made more possible than ever.
But it’s not just job switchers or a tight labour market that is impacting productivity and workplace culture. Millions of Canadians are feeling burned-out.
In my survey, 1 in 3 Canadians felt they were currently feeling burned out, including 44% of those under 45. To add some context, that’s 10 million or so people feeling burned out, just after the holiday season when many had the opportunity to rest and recharge.
What does burnout look like? Most working Canadians agree that “there are days when I feel tired before I arrive at work” and half of those under 45 agree “it happens more and more often that I talk about my work in a negative way.”
If we haven’t yet seen a Great Resignation in Canada, these numbers suggest it could still come.
SHORTAGE ECONOMY: GETTING WHAT WE WANT AND NEED AND PAYING MORE FOR IT
We all know that the pandemic severely disrupted supply chains and Omicron has made things even worse. Everyone has an anecdote of how long it’s taken to get a new fridge, car, or even hire someone to renovate their home. These experiences are widespread, according to my survey.
Almost half of Canadians say they couldn’t get a product they wanted in the past 12 months because of a shortage or that product being temporarily unavailable.
Furthermore, 84% say this experience has been happening more often than usual.
But what are Canadian consumers doing when they face an empty shelf or back-ordered product? It varies quite a bit. When asked what they did the last time they couldn’t get a product they wanted, 35% bought a different brand of the same product, 39% ordered the product and waited, while 27% didn’t buy the product at all. In all three, the consumer experience was disrupted.
While this presents itself as an opportunity for new brands to connect with consumers, it also forced consumers to wait, something they don’t appreciate all that much and likely left them feeling dissatisfied with the brand and retailer. For others, they simply didn’t buy the product, perhaps spending that money on something else.
Disruptions like these were widespread and occurred across both product categories and services.
The chart below reports the estimated number of Canadian consumers (18+) who report being impacted by supply shortages. Millions of Canadians either experienced delays or didn’t get what they wanted at all when it came to furniture, major home appliances, meat products, lumber, or a new car. As someone in the market for a new road bike, I empathize with the 1.4 million Canadians who could not get that new bike they wanted thanks to a global bike component and parts shortage.
But the lack of supply didn’t just leave consumers frustrated, it also caused prices to rise in many consumer product categories. The cost of living is going up at its fastest pace in three decades, but more important than actual increases are the perceptions that prices are rising.
Most Canadians believe the price for many food products, gas, housing, consumer products, and even personal hygiene products are rising. Many also think the price they are paying for services such as the trades, financial services, and professional services are also increasing.
While people believe prices are rising quickly, few report their household income rising. Only 1 in 4 Canadians say their household income has increased in the past year, while a similar proportion feel their incomes have actually decreased.
The shortage economy in Canada has left many consumers dissatisfied – either because they couldn’t get a product or service they wanted or because they are now paying more for less.
THE DEATH OF CUSTOMER SERVICE?
But interestingly, the impact on the perceived quality of customer service has not been overly negative for most people.
I asked respondents: “Compared with a few years ago, has the overall customer service you’ve received from the following types of organizations improved, worsened, or stayed the same?”
For the most part, Canadians feel that service quality has stayed about the same. Service evaluations of airlines, government departments, and restaurants are worst, while many people feel that the experience online or through e-commerce has improved.
There’s a lot to unpack in these numbers but for me what stands out is that businesses who have faced labour shortages and severe changes to the overall experience (think restaurants and airlines) are seen as weaker while e-commerce and online retailers have been able to improve on the experience overall. This means that the acceleration in e-commerce use over the course of the pandemic may stick around, as consumers met an improving experience while brick-and-mortar retailers were static and constrained by capacity restrictions, social distancing, and other COVID-created challenges.
THE SHORTAGE ECONOMY: CAN GOVERNMENTS DO ANYTHING?
The bad news, beyond the health, social, and economic disruptions caused by the pandemic, is that citizens believe governments can do something to help deal with inflation, labour shortages, and even supply chain disruptions. Whether or not those expectations are misplaced, the perception that government intervention can help solve these issues means that governments and political leaders need to be seen caring about these issues and doing something about them.
Take the federal government for example. When asked how well the federal government is doing dealing with inflation, labour shortages, product shortages, and supply chain disruptions, views are quite mixed. The federal government gets higher negative evaluations on inflation (59%) than the others. But in no area do more than 17% feel the federal government is doing an excellent or good job.
When it comes to inflation specifically, do Canadians think the federal government decisions impact inflation as the Conservative opposition has been claiming?
Well, most do. When asked to choose between two statements, 58% felt federal government decisions have had a big impact on inflation in Canada while 42% felt inflation “is being caused by global factors outside the control of the federal government.” In reality, I assume both could be true but I was interested to see where the public was more likely to fall.
And while supporters of the opposition parties are more likely to think the federal government did have a big impact on inflation, 4 in 10 Liberal voters feel the same way, suggesting this view isn’t entirely caused by partisanship.
So, if most think the federal government had a big impact on inflation, do people think they have helped or hurt the situation? Most (54%) think federal government decisions have made inflation worse compared with 11% who think its decisions have made inflation better.
In total then, 41% of Canadians believe the federal government has had a big impact on inflation and has made it worse. More troubling for the Trudeau government in all of this – 17% of these folks voted Liberal in 2021 and represent 7% of the electorate.
So what’s the best policy? I’ll leave that to the experts. But from the public’s perspective, when asked whether increased prices for goods and services or increased interest rates would be worse, increased prices won by a long shot. 72% said increased prices would be worse for them personally compared with 17% who felt increased interest rates would be less desirable. Those who own a home and those with higher incomes were slightly more likely to fear interest rate hikes, but even among those groups, price increases were perceived to be the greater pain point.
THE UPSHOT
Abacus Data CEO, David Coletto: The shortage economy is clearly here. Labour shortages, burned-out workers, and supply chain disruptions are part of the everyday experience for Canadians. Millions haven’t been able to buy the bike, fridge, or new sofa they wanted or needed and many feel the customer service they’ve received from their favourite restaurant, airline, or retailer has gotten worse.
How do leaders respond to this new economic and consumer/citizen opinion environment?
First, I think we all need to lead with compassion and engagement. While there is no Great Resignation in Canada, employees and workers are more powerful than they have been in a long time. More and more, especially younger workers, are looking to be fulfilled at work. They want their work to mean something. They want or even demand employers who care, listen, and respond compassionately. Engage more regularly with your teams and workforce. Measure their attitudes and perceptions and demonstrate you’re listening.
Second, I think all businesses – whether in retail, food service, or even professional or financial services – need to approach customer service with a hospitality mindset. Take a page from a legend, restauranteur Danny Meyer, and empower your teams to deliver enlightened hospitality to your clients, suppliers, and stakeholders. Your organization will be facing consumers, customers, and clients who will be asked to pay more and often for less. Improving the experience is critical. To do so, you have to understand what they want, what they expect, and how best to deliver value in a shortage economy.
Finally, for policymakers and political leaders – ignoring a problem because your choices had very little impact on the problem is not good enough. The public expects empathy and responsiveness from our government and elected representatives. If people say the cost of living is a real problem, don’t explain it away. Respond with something. For the Trudeau government, most already feel it can impact inflation and almost half think it has made things worse. If you continue to ignore or ineffectively respond to what people are feeling, they will look for someone else who doesn’t.
Don’t forget to tune into my TEC Canada webinar on this subject today or reach out if you have any questions or would like to connect.
METHODOLOGY
The survey data used in this study is from a national online survey of 2,210 Canadian adults from January 7 to 12, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
Ontario is likely heading to the polls in early June 2022 and over the next months, our team will track public opinion and preferences in the lead-up to the campaign.
This is part of our team’s expansion in Toronto. We have opened a new office in downtown Toronto and will be focusing on issues that matter to people living in the GTA and across the province.
Last week we completed a national survey that included an oversample of 1,210 respondents living in Ontario.
Here’s what we found:
TOP PROVINCIAL ISSUES: COVID, INFLATION & HEALTH CARE
When asked to rank the top three issues facing the province from a long list, the COVID-19 pandemic, the rising cost of living and the health care system were in the top 3. Housing affordability and climate change/the environment rounded out the top 5.
Despite severe labour shortages in some sectors, only 9% put it in their top issue. The provincial deficit is a top issue for 11% while education reaches 12%. For 7% the c
Older Ontarians are more likely to rank the pandemic, the health care system and the deficit than younger ones. Millennials are more concerned about the cost of childcare, racism and inequality, and housing affordability than older Ontarians.
Interestingly, there’s almost no difference on issue priority when comparing those living in the GTA and those in the rest of the province. COVID, inflation, and healthcare top the list for both groups.
For PC Party supporters, the top issues in the province are the same – pandemic, inflation, healthcare, housing affordability and economic growth – but PC supporters are more likely to rate economic growth and the budget deficit as a top issue than other Ontarians and less likely to prioritize climate change, healthcare, and racism/inequality.
THE ELECTORATE’S MOOD: DESIRE FOR CHANGE
At the start of 2022, 72% of Ontarians feel it is either definitely time for a change in government or it would be nice to have change, but it’s not important to them. In contrast, 28% would like to see the Ford PCs re-elected in the spring.
Most important, 50% definitely want to see a change in government.
To put these numbers in context, the desire for change in the week before the 2018 Ontario election was significantly higher. At that time, 63% definitely wanted a change in government and only 10% definitely wanted to see Kathleen Wynne and the Ontario Liberal’s re-elected.
Moreover, these numbers in Ontario looks similar to the desire for change we saw nationally in the final weekend of the 2021 federal election. At that time, 50% definitely wanted to see a change in government while 19% definitely wanted the federal Liberals re-elected.
FORD GOVERNMENT PERFORMANCE
What might be driving this desire for change? For one, on the issues that matter most to Ontarians, the Ford government’s performance is perceived to be fairly negative but not enough to be a severe hurdle to re-election.
Take the pandemic for example. This is a top issue to 60% of the electorate and residents are quite divided on the provincial government’s performance. 50% think the Premier and his government have done a poor or very poor job. In contrast, 22% think it has been positive while 25% describe the performance as acceptable.
We see similar numbers for how the government has managed the province’s health care system (good 16%, acceptable 25%, poor 54%) and how it’s dealt with climate change and the environment (14% good, 29% acceptable, 43% poor).
But on two key pocketbook issues that helped the PCs win in 2018, the government’s performance is more negative: the rising cost of living and housing affordability. On both of these issues about 2 in 3 think the government has performed poorly while less than 10% think it has done a good job.
On less salient issues, the government gets more positive marks for its handling of crime/public safety, public transportation, racism/inequality, and economic growth. It’s weaker on childcare, addressing labour shortages, and managing the education system.
PARTY LEADER IMPRESSIONS
Before asking people for their impression of the four main political party leaders, we asked how well people think they know them.
Not surprising, most feel they know Premier Doug Ford at least pretty well (82%) with 17% saying they don’t know him much or well.
In contrast, NDP and Official Opposition leader Andrea Horwath is known well by 60% of respondents. 40% say they don’t know her that well – this despite being NDP leader for 13 years and leader of the opposition for almost 4.
Ontario Liberal leader Steven Del Duca is much less well-known know with only 38% saying they know him well and 1 in 4 saying they don’t know him much at all.
Green leader Mike Schreiner is the least well-known of the four main party leaders.
When asked how they feel about the same leaders, none have particularly good images. One in three have a positive impression of Doug Ford and Andrea Horwath while 20% have a positive view of Steven Del Duca. Only 14% view Mike Schreiner positively.
Overall, Doug Ford’s net score is -14, Andrea Horwath’s is +2, Steven Del Ducca’s is -6 while Mike Schreiner’s is -2.
For Doug Ford, his current image is similar to what it was in April 2021 – the last time we asked about him in our public surveys.
Ford’s personal numbers are fairly consistent across the province.
Not surprisingly, those on the left are far less likely to view the Premier positively than those on the right.
But noteworthy, about 1 in 3 of those who self-identify being on the right say they have a negative view of the Premier. A potential liability as the PCs try to keep the conservative coalition united in the PC Party – especially as two parties on the right try to gain traction.
PROVINCIAL VOTE INTENTION
If a provincial election was held today, the PCs would very likely win with 37% of the popular vote. The Ontario Liberals and NDP are in a race for second with the Liberals slightly ahead of the NDP.
Since our last survey in April 2021, when the public reacted quite negatively to new COVID restrictions announced, the PCs are up 3, the Liberals down 7, and the NDP marginally up 2.
Compared with the 2018 provincial election, the PCs are down 3, the Liberals up 8, and the NDP down 9.
Regionally, PC support is fairly consistent across the province. The Liberals have more support in the GTA and Toronto than in other regions. NDP support is fairly consistent across the province.
There is a lot of variation by age. PC support is much higher among those aged 45 and older than those under 45. In fact, at 50%, its support among those 60+ is more than double its support among 18 to 29-year-olds. In an environment where younger electors are less likely to turn out, this is a definite advantage for Doug Ford and the PCs.
It’s also worth noting that educational attainment doesn’t appear to be a be factor influencing vote intention unlike federally or in other jurisdictions. Party vote shares are fairly consistent across educational groups.
Finally, when we look at provincial vote intentions by reported federal vote in the 2021 Canadian election, we find alignment between Conservative and NDP supporters and their provincial counterparts. Over 80% of federal Conservative and NDP voters say they will vote for the equivalent provincially.
But among federal Liberal supporters, only 2 in 3 say they will vote for the provincial Liberal party with 16% saying they will vote PC and another 16% preferring the Ontario NDP.
If the PCs were to lose those federal Liberal voters and not gain anywhere else, the PCs would lose 6-points and drop down to 31% overall. If the Ontario Liberals gain that 6-points, they would jump into the lead and end with 34% of the popular vote.
These federal Liberal/provincial PC switchers are going to be critical to the PC re-election, especially if they lose voters to the new right-wing parties.
Speaking of which, among federal People’s Party voters, 24% say they would vote PC while more than half would vote for another party. If the PCs can gain even another quarter of these voters, that only would result in an additional 1% vote share gain.
In other words, leakage to the right is a problem but if the PCs lose federal Liberal votes, the damage could be more severe.
UPSHOT
According to David Coletto: “The PCs start 2022 with the advantage but not one that is not insurmountable. There is widespread dissatisfaction with the Ford government and Premier Ford himself, although not to the extent it was prior to the pandemic. If an election was held today, the PCs would likely win thanks to a divided opposition and strength in all parts of the province. Housing affordability and inflation are two areas where the provincial government performs worst and they become liabilities for the PCs if they don’t have compelling solutions in the lead up to the election.
For the opposition parties, the Liberals are well positioned to become to natural alternative to the PCs again but they have a largely unknown leader in Steven Del Duca. If he can introduce himself positively to Ontarians, the Liberals could make big gains and challenge the Conservatives in the Greater Toronto Area. For the NDP, despite the breakthrough in 2018, Andrea Horwath remains unknown and poorly defined to millions of Ontarians and the party has fallen behind the NDP.
In order to defeat the PCs, the opposition parties will need to do two things. First, increase the desire for change in the province and two consolidate support more effectively around one alternative. Right now, the electorate is both insufficiently angry at the Ford PCs and not excited about any of the alternatives. Ford’s surest path to re-election is to not make waves, reinforce his right flank while hoping the divided centre-left continues
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 1,210 Ontario residents over 18 from January 7 to 12, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.9%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations and leaders respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
We completed a national survey of 2,200 Canadian adults from January 7 to 12, 2022.
Here’s a snapshot of our findings.
PUBLIC MOOD & GOVERNMENT APPROVAL
Since early December, the mood of the country has soured as Omicron has spread and anxiety about the pandemic has increased. Today, 37% feel the country is headed in the right direction (down 5 from early December) while 47% think it’s on the wrong track, up 4. Views on the direction of the world and the United States have also taken a negative turn.
The overall shift in mood is mirrored by rising anxiety about the pandemic. Today 47% say they have become more worried about the pandemic over the past few days – an increase of 3-points since the end of November and a 23-point since October. 1 in 3 Canadians believes that the worst of the pandemic is still to come, up 5 since late November.
Despite this shift in mood, impressions of the federal government are unchanged from late November.
Slightly more approve (44%) than disapprove (40%) of the federal government, almost exactly the same levels as at the end of November. The Trudeau government’s net approval (approve – disapprove) regionally is -5 in BC, -24 in Alberta, -4 in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, +5 in Ontario, +19 in Quebec, and +18 in Atlantic Canada.
LEADER IMPRESSIONS
Justin Trudeau enjoys a positive impression among 40% and negative impressions among 42%, for a net score of -2. This is largely unchanged from the end of November.
Today 21% have a positive impression of the Conservative leader Erin O’Toole while his negatives are at 46% for a net score of -25. A slight worsening since November and the highest negatives we’ve recorded for him.
Jagmeet Singh enjoys a positive impression among 40% and finds negative impressions among 23% for a net score of +17, also similar to our results in November but his positives are down 6 points the election in September.
In Quebec, BQ Leader Mr. Blanchet is 38% positive and 24% negative for a net score of +14. Mr. Trudeau is +11 and Mr. O’Toole is -29 in Quebec.
VOTING INTENTION
If an election were held now, the Liberals would win 32% of the vote (in line with the 2021 election share and unchanged from November 2021), the Conservatives would win 30% (4-points lower than their share in the election and unchanged from November) and the NDP 19% (1-point higher). The BQ is at 8% nationally while the People’s Party is at 7% and the Greens at 3%.
• BC: a three-way race with the NDP at 33%, Liberals at 32%, and the Conservatives at 27%.
• Alberta: 54% would vote Conservative compared with 20% for the NDP, 17% for the Liberal Party, and 6% for the People’s Party.
• Manitoba and Saskatchewan: The Conservatives lead with 38% followed by the Liberal at 27% and the NDP at 21%.
• Ontario: The Liberals have a 3-point lead over the Conservatives (37% to 34%) with the NDP in third at 19%. The People’s Party is polling at 7% in Ontario.
• Quebec: We see the BQ slightly ahead of the Liberals (35% to 32%) with the Conservatives at 13%, the NDP at 9%, and the People’s Party at 8%.
• Atlantic: The Liberals lead by 7 with 33% compared with 26% for the NDP, 25% for the Conservatives, and 10% for the People’s Party.
UPSHOT
According to Bruce Anderson: “It’s January, there’s been catastrophic floods in BC, rising inflation, a raging new Covid variant, and more turmoil around schools and other lockdown measures, affecting businesses and daily lives of millions. Canadians, given all of that, seem pretty stoic for the moment – certainly, the mix of challenges is not taking a toll on support levels for the federal government or showing up as an opportunity for other parties, with the possible exception of the Peoples Party, as anti-vax sentiment becomes more prominent and polarizing. Canadians seem to be inclined to ignore most of what’s happening in politics right now, and work to get through what continues to be an unprecedented number of challenges for many people, in their everyday lives.”
According to David Coletto: “
Very little has changed since late November in terms of Canadian public opinion towards politics. Although the rise of Omicron has certainly soured many Canadians’ mood, this shift has not had much impact on how the public views the federal government and political leaders in Ottawa.
Right now, the public is clearly focused on getting through this challenging period and few are likely paying much attention to politics
”
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METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 2,200 Canadian adults from January 7 to 12, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.089%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
New Year’s resolutions have a longstanding history dating back thousands of years. With 2021 in the rear view, some Canadians are setting their sights on 2022, and making resolutions for a better future in the process. This led us to wonder if the tradition is still living strong today. Just how many Canadians are making resolutions? What are their resolutions? Are they setting themselves up for success or failure? We explored all of this and more in our latest survey.
Our survey found that only 12% of Canadians are regularly making New Year’s Resolutions, followed by 30% who occasionally make resolutions, and 58% who rarely do so. Those who regularly make resolutions are significantly more likely to skew younger, but gender and region have little impact on whether or not Canadians are regularly making resolutions.
But how does this year compare? Well, 25% of Canadians have made a resolution in 2022, and only 81% of those who regularly make a New Year’s Resolution did so this year. Interestingly, those who feel that the worst of the pandemic is in the past were significantly more likely to make a New Year’s Resolution (33%), highlighting that opinions may be changing as Canadians begin to see the light at the end of the tunnel and feel motivated to make resolutions. This was also the case for those who feel they are living their life to the fullest (30%), those who wake up most mornings excited to start their day (30%), and those who are very optimistic about the future (31%). Again, younger Canadians (40% among those 18-29) are significantly more likely to make resolutions than their elders (13% among those 60 and over). Are older Canadians stuck in their ways? Are they Losing their drive for self improvement? We can’t say for sure, but the numbers are a little concerning.
As expected, many Canadians (43%) have focused on improving their health and wellness this year, possibly due to the sedentary lifestyle many are facing due to Covid-19, and the ongoing desire to improve upon one’s health and wellness. Those living in BC were among the most likely to focus their resolution on health and wellness (51%), while those living in Quebec were among the least likely (27%). Interestingly, although being the least likely to have made a resolution, those 60 and over were the most likely to focus on their health and wellness (59%) compared to any other age group. Health and wellness was followed by another classic resolution of quitting a bad habit (17%) and not far behind that was working on financial habits (16%), again, possibly related to the pandemic’s impact on the finances of Canadians.
While Canadians make resolutions for a better future, we wanted to make sure that they were setting smart goals for themselves. We found that the vast majority of Canadians considered a multitude of factors before making their resolutions, something that will most likely set them up for success. We specifically asked respondents whether or not they considered if their resolution was achievable, relevant, specific enough, measurable, and time-bound while deciding on their New Year’s resolutions. Turns out, Canadians who made resolutions did think of these factors when deciding what to work on. However, while many considered if their resolution was achievable (92%), relevant (90%), specific (82%) and measurable (81%), far fewer considered whether or not it was time-bound (69%). Still, nearly 7 in 10 of those who made a resolution for 2022 did consider whether or not it was time-bound.
UPSHOT
According to Michael Monopoli: Canadians aren’t just making resolutions at will. They’re actively considering whether or not their goals are achievable, relevant, specific, measurable, and time-bound, all of which are factors which lead to smart goal setting. While many may look at their New Year’s Resolution and see it as a challenge, it seems as though those who have made resolutions this year have set themselves up for success!
METHODOLOGY
This survey was conducted with 2200 Canadian adults from January 7th to January 12th 2022. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.089%, 19 times out of 20.
The survey was conducted using a random sample of panelists invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The data was weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
As the final days of 2021 come to an end, were taking time to reflect and say thank you to all of those who have helped us grow over the past year.
Here are some of our highlights from 2021:
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
With the holiday season in full swing, COVID-19 cases are rising across the nation. Will Canadians be staying home for the holidays this year? How will celebrations be affected?
Every year, we ask Canadians how they are planning to celebrate the holidays.
Here’s a summary of what we found:
The holiday season can bring about some mixed emotions from Canadians. When asked to describe how the holiday season made them feel in just one word, the most commonly mentioned was joy. The second most mentioned was sadness, highlighting just how different some of us feel this time of year. While the holiday season can be an exciting and hopeful time for many, it can also be a time of loneliness, stress, and anxiety, most likely amplified by the COVID-19 pandemic and emerging variants.
Make sure to keep your sanitizer and mask ready! Nearly one in four (23%) Canadians will be hosting a holiday meal with family and/or friends this year and over one in two (52%) will be travelling to another household to attend a holiday party. Looking at those who will be travelling, 76% will be staying local, while 15% will be traveling to another part of the province, 7% traveling to another province all together, and 2% plan to travel internationally.
So, what’s on the menu this holiday season? Well, 65% of the holiday dinners will feature turkey as the main course (+9 points from 2020), 21% will be having chicken (+10 points from 2020), 8% ham, and 7% a vegetarian dish (+3 points from 2020). Among those under 45, only 53% will have turkey, while 30% will have chicken, 8% will have ham and the same amount (8%) will have a vegetarian dish.
We also asked Canadians to choose their preferences for many classic holiday favourites.
Here’s a summary: • Canadians are split on the type of Christmas tree they prefer: real trees (51%) beat artificial trees (49%) by a hair, flipping the script on 2020. • Michael Bublé (55%) is the favourite over Bing Crosby (45%) but a somewhat larger margin. • Gift wrap options divide the nation: 51% prefer gift bags while 49% prefer wrapping paper. • Hot chocolate (68%) easily beats eggnog (32%) as the preferred holiday beverage. • More would prefer to receive cash as a holiday gift (58%) than a gift card (42%).
Finally, almost eight in ten Canadians would prefer to have snow on Christmas than no snow on Christmas (22%).
Wondering what Canadians consider their holiday favourites? We asked about their favourite holiday staples such as cookies, side dishes, movies, and songs. Turns out, most Canadians prefer shortbread cookies, stuffing, Home Alone, and Holy Night. However, that doesn’t mean you’ll please everyone with these choices. Among those under 45 years old, chocolate chip cookies, potatoes, and Jingle Bells reign supreme, with Home Alone holding it’s spot as favourite holiday movie between groups.
For those who were curious, the full results are as follows:
Favourite holiday Cookie:
Shortbread – 35%
Chocolate Chip – 28%
Gingerbread – 19%
Sugar – 9%
Butter – 8%
Favourite Holiday Side Dish:
Stuffing – 36%
Potatoes – 33%
Vegetables – 14%
Cranberry Sauce – 10%
Pigs in a Blanket – 6%
Favourite Holiday Movie:
Home Alone – 37%
National Lampoons Christmas Vacation – 22%
Elf – 14%
It’s A Wonderful Life – 14%
Miracle on 34th Street – 13%
Favourite Holiday Song:
Holy Night – 26%
Jingle Bells – 20%
White Christmas – 19%
It’s Beginning to Look a Lot Like Christmas – 18%
All I Want for Christmas is You – 17%
METHODOLOGY
This survey was conducted with 1,485 Canadian adults from December 13th to December 16th 2021. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.543%, 19 times out of 20.
The survey was conducted using a random sample of panelists invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The data was weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
In less than a week I turn 40. That’s 14,600 days, 350,400 hours, and 21 million minutes since I was lucky enough to be born to my parents, in Toronto, in Canada, in 1981.
Now, for many readers, the fact that I’m turning 40 may come as a surprise.
Most people I meet for the first time think I’m barely 25 years old, maybe 30. In fact, in a recent national survey conducted by our team at Abacus Data, we asked a representative sample of Canadians to guess my age. The result came back as expected – almost everyone underestimated my age with the average age estimate around 30. By the way – thanks to the roughly 10% of people who thought I looked 20 or younger.
People thinking I’m younger than I am has been a part of my life from an early age. Family, friends, clients, students, and audiences a like marvel at my youthfulness. I’m often asked how I did it, but frankly, I have no idea. It may be a combination of good genes, and a relatively healthy lifestyle (minus all the ice cream), or it could be the litres of excellent Italian olive oil I’ve consumed over my lifetime.
Everyone says that after I turn 40, being young looking will have its advantages. I say it’s about time – looking so young has definitely not been an asset for the first 40 years of my life.
However, this fresh-faced guy is now officially an old millennial (or as some have termed a “Geriatric Millennial”). That’s right, I’m a member of that infamous generation that I’ve spent the last 11 years studying, exploring, and trying to figure out as a social researcher. I’ve given a hundred or more speeches or presentations on those born between 1980 and 2000, interviewed thousands in the surveys we’ve conducted, and now, as I step into my midlife, I’ve been forced to reflect on what it means to be a middle-aged millennial. In fact, as an avid cyclist, I even picked up a copy of this book.
WHY USE A GENERATIONAL LENS?
A few years ago, I was part of a panel discussion talking about political marketing and the future of a certain Canadian political party. A fellow panelist at that session questioned the value of generation as a tool for understanding political behaviour. To him, age was the least interesting variable that could be used to explain why people think and behave the ways they do. He brought forth the notion that those who have kids and own a home have far more in common, even if 20 years apart in age, than two people who are close in age but have different lifestyles or have reached different milestones in their lives. In some ways, I agree with him. A 50-year-old with children is likely to have different priorities than a 50-year old without kids. But his point overlooks a crucial element – and something my team at Abacus Data has spent a lot of time exploring – do the circumstances shared by those born around the same time influence the way they think and act?
Now this isn’t to say that life cycle (aging) doesn’t impact how one thinks or behaves. Certainly, priorities change as you get older. When I was 20, paying off my mortgage, thinking about retirement, or figuring out how to keep my grass green in the middle of the summer was the least of my worries.
However, being born in 1981 means I experienced many of the same influences, contexts, and environmental factors as others born around the same time. Our research, for example, finds that millennials were raised differently than previous generations. Think about the households they were raised in, their relationships with their parents, and the expectations bred into them from an early age. Millennials were raised by parents who acted as their agents, curated almost every minute of their days, and encouraged them to follow their dreams and make every minute on earth count. They got regular feedback from those in positions of authority, while the lines of authority themselves were blurred. They had access to decision makers, were far more influential in household decisions, and were regularly consulted to share their thoughts. The world was their oyster, and our families and society generally were there to help make our dreams come true. It’s no wonder than 85% of Canadian millennials agree that, while growing up, many people told them they could achieve anything. Optimism and hopefulness became part of their DNA. The experience during these formative years were far different from those experienced by Boomers or Gen Xers.
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Now think about what was going on in the world and Canada from the early 1980s to the mid to late 2000s. While 9/11 was a seminal world event, millennials never really experienced an existential crisis that earlier generations had. The Great Recession in 2008 has certainly had an impact on their career progressions, but it didn’t influence behaviour and attitudes like the Great Depression had on my grandparents’ generation.
Instead, the big shift in our lives centred around the pace of technological change. On top of a very different upbringing, which alone would account for the generational gaps in expectations and outlook, millennials were the first generation to fully experience and grow up during the rise of the internet and digital technology as a whole. While a decline in deference was well underway since the 1980s, it accelerated because consumers, employees, and citizens had unlimited access to information that was previously controlled by a select few experts and those in the know. Millennials are the first digital native generation, but not the last. How we communicate, access information, and become informed about what’s happening in our world is fundamentally different. When we ask survey Canadians to identify their top breaking news source, the difference of opinion is profound. Upwards of 40 to 50% of millennials say they rely on social media platforms like Facebook, Twitter, or Instagram for breaking news. That’s about 25 points higher than all other Canadians combined and almost 40 points higher than Boomers. Now that’s a generational divide!
Canadian millennials are more likely to have traveled to another part of the world by the time their 30 than older generations. Half say they don’t believe in a god or higher power and almost half of millennial men are the primary cooks in their household. More millennial women will get a post-secondary degree than millennial men, a sharp change from earlier generations. These differences have an impact on our thinking and choices, controlling for milestones or individual circumstance. Identifying those differences and then making sense of them, is what our work is all about.
Millennials make up the majority of working age Canadians. They are increasingly taking leadership roles on teams and in organizations. They are the largest block of voters in the Canadian electorate, and a soon to be published book chapter I wrote finds that they were instrumental in all three election wins for Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party.
MIDLIFE MILLENNIALS vs. YOUNGER MILLENNIALS
But in thinking about my milestone birthday, a question emerged – are old millennials much different than younger ones? Luckily, I run a twice annual survey of 2,000 Canadian millennials that I could dig into. Our latest survey – part of Abacus Data’s syndicated Canadian Millennials Report – was conducted in June 2021. The next wave is set to be fielded in January 2022.
First, a little about the mid-life or soon to be mid-life Canadian millennials (those today aged 35 to 41).
Half of midlife millennials have kids. 40% are married.
Only 35% feel they are living comfortably with almost half saying they live paycheque to paycheque. 1 in 5 old millennials have no savings at all.
60% own their home – 23-points higher than those aged 20 to 34. Among those who don’t currently own, 2 in 3 want to someday, even if more and more are becoming pessimistic about their ability to do so.
53% of midlife millennials have some money saved in an RRSP. 43% have an employer provided pension. Half have life insurance – 69% among those who are married.
71% own a car, 17-points higher than younger millennials.
20% own cryptocurrency.
Second, throughout the survey, the views, impressions and opinions of midlife millennials and their younger counterparts are quite similar. They are generally optimistic about the future (even in the middle of a global pandemic), are worried about the cost of housing, climate change, and the healthcare system, and generally approve of the job the federal government has done managing the country.
Where we do see some big differences between midlife and younger millennials is in their media use. Like many millennials my age, I have no idea what TikTok is for, how to use it, and what I’d even do with it.
Midlife millennials are as likely to check Facebook daily as younger millennials but much less likely to be using Instagram, Twitter, TikTok, or Snapchat. We are also 10-points less likely to be watching something on YouTube every day and more likely to be watching news on TV than younger millennials.
Overall, midlife millennials in Canada report spending nine hours less per week on digital platforms like YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, or Twitter than younger millennials.
So, while life cycle helps to explain differences in homeownership, marital status, and financial situation, midlife millennials and younger millennials share the same outlook, expectations, and values, But are using different tools to engage and communicate.
40 IS THE NEW 30… RIGHT?
Despite my youthful complexion, I’m starting to feel and see the impact of my aging. There’s a little less hair on my head. My body takes longer to recover from exercise or sickness, and I’m increasingly finding myself not understanding what some of the younger members of my team or my students are talking about.
I’m lucky to have a job that lets me learn something new every day and engage with Canadians of all ages through the research we do. Cycling helps keep my mind sharp and body in shape and my friends and family (and Chestnut our dog) make life worth living.
As more and more millennials take that step into middle-age, they will bring the values, perspectives, and expectations they developed over the first 40 years and bring them into the workplaces, stores, and polling booths that they will increasingly influence over the next 40.
I always thought being 40 meant you were getting old. I’ve come to learn that it’s just another number. Although I do wish this number would stop increasing, it’s reassuring to know that I look about ten years younger to most people.
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
As more and more things are going back to normal in Canada, we decided to get Canadians to look beyond Canada’s borders to think about the threats and priorities they have for Canada on the global stage. We also asked them to gauge Canada’s influence in the world. We updated questions we asked back in 2018.
Here’s what we found:
PERCEIVED THREATS TO CANADA
More Canadians believe that global climate change is a major threat to the well-being of Canadians than any other potential issue. Six in ten think it is a major threat which is up 8-points since 2018. Of course, back in 2018, Trump’s approach to foreign affairs was considered the biggest threat to Canada.
There are several notable shifts. China’s emergence as a world power is perceived as much more of a major threat (54%) compared to 2018 (29%) – a 25-point increase. The perception that the growing authoritarianism in Russia in contrast has decreased, although this survey was done prior to the build-up of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border.
Future pandemics is the third most important threat followed by cyber attacks from other countries. Notably, one in three Canadians think the growing divisions in the United States is a major threat.
Perceptions about the threat of Islamic extremist groups and North Korea’s nuclear program are down by 8 and 9-points respectively since 2018.
FOREIGN POLICY PRIORITIES
Consistent with the major threat that Canadians think global climate change poses, it is the most likely to be viewed as the top foreign policy priority (43%) – up 9-points since 2018.
Ending extreme poverty and protecting Canadians from terrorist attacks are the next most important priorities, although protecting Canada from terrorist attacks has fallen 5-points as a top priority. Interestingly, promoting and defending human rights and strengthening the UN are the lowest priorities as they were in 2018.
Notable changes from 2018 include the rise in priority for global climate change, ending extreme poverty, and improving women’s rights, equality and economic empowerment. Expanding trade opportunities and protecting Canadians from terrorism are less of a priority compared with 2018.
Liberal and NDP voters are far more likely to prioritize climate change, improving women’s equality and ending extreme poverty compared to Conservative voters. Conservative voters prioritize trade and protecting Canada from terrorism.
HOW WE THINK THE WORLD SEE US
Canadians think the rest of the world sees our country as diplomatic (90%), tolerant (89%) and ethical (86%). A large majority also think our country is seen as an example to replicate (77%), rather than something to avoid. All of these are only slightly lower than we found in 2018 when we first asked these questions.
Canadians are more divided on how we view ourselves on the other dimensions. Only 41% think we are a leader rather than a follower and 56% think we are influential rather than ignored. Compared with 2018 more people now believe Canada is a follower. The biggest change is with respect to perceptions of strength; 63% believe the world views us as strong up 7-points from 2018.
CANADA’S INFLUENCE IN THE WORLD
Canadians are quite divided about the role that Canada plays in the world. Compared with ten years ago, 38% think Canada plays a less important role compared with 29% who think the role is more important. In the past three years, Canadians have become more likely to think our influence has declined (from 33% to 38%).
THE UPSHOT
The world feels like a different place than it was in 2018 when Donald Trump’s approach to foreign affairs was considered the biggest threat to Canada. After more than a year and half of a pandemic that has rocked the world, we end 2021 with a quite different view of some of the threats to Canada and priorities for Canada’s foreign policy.
The one constant is the place of climate change. We are now nearing a consensus on global climate change. More Canadians see it as a major threat and more want it to be a government priority.
It would be a mistake to think Canadians only care about climate change. In 2021 they put a higher importance than in 2018 on a range of issues such as ending extreme poverty and improving the rights and equality of women, that touch on making it a Just world for all to live in.
The key new threat is China that will likely continue to be a focus for both Canadians and policy makers as the dynamics of global affairs hinges around the authoritarian vs. democratic axes.
At the same time, Canadians continue to have a very positive view of how the rest of the world views us. This is particularly true when it comes to values such as being diplomatic, tolerant and ethical. Most of also think we are a country that is something to replicate. This positive feeling about how others perceive us is, however, combined with less optimistic view of our role in global affairs. Six in ten think we are perceived as a follower rather than a leader.
Canada has not, according to Canadians, reasserted our influence in the world. In fact, Canadians have become a little more pessimistic about the importance of the role we play in the world. It is not clear whether this is a function of a more challenging global environment or specific events such as the pandemic or the conflict with China.
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from October 15 to 20, 2021. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
