NDP and UCP Statistically Tied in Alberta
May 17, 2023
Over the weekend we released a new poll that found the NDP taking a lead over the UCP. Several other polls have been released or leaked which have found varying results – from a large UCP lead to a large NDP lead.
So I wanted to verify and update the province-wide picture and conducted a quick survey with just under 500 eligible voters in Alberta from Monday May 15 to this morning (Wednesday, May 17), 2023.
Here’s a quick summary of what we found:
The NDP and UCP are statistically tied province-wide
Among all eligible voters, 40% would vote NDP, 37% UCP, and 3% would vote for the Alberta Party. 18% are undecided. Based on the sample size, there’s a 75% chance the NDP is in the lead with an NDP lead as large as 11% and a UCP lead as large as 6% province-wide.
All the movement from our last survey is within the margin of error.
Among likely voters, the NDP and UCP are also statistically tied with the NDP at 44% and the UCP at 42%. 12% of likely voters are undecided.
Among all committed voters, the NDP gets 49%, the UCP 46%, and the Alberta Party is at 3%.
Among committed likely voters, it is 50% NDP, 48% UCP, and 2% for the Alberta Party.
Regionally, we have the NDP ahead by 21 in Edmonton, the UCP ahead by 13 outside of the two largest cities, and the UCP and NDP statistically tied in Calgary (UCP 44% to 39% for the NDP).
When you removed undecideds, the results by region are:
- Calgary: UCP 51%, NDP 44%
- Edmonton: NDP 65%, UCP 27%
- Other communities: UCP 56%, NDP 39%
The NDP leads by 17 among those under 45 while the UCP is ahead by 11 among those aged 45+. The NDP leads by 10 among women while the UCP is statistically tied with the NDP among men (43% UCP to 39% NDP).
The election remains very close and this quick snapshot finds e the race is statistically tied province-wide, Edmonton is solidly NDP territory while the UCP is doing well outside the two largest cities. In Calgary, the race is very close with our results showing a statistical tie.
Demographically, the UCP’s advantage among older voters should provide it with an electoral advantage as those over 45 are about 20 points more likely to say they will be definitely voting in the election (Under 45 – 58% vs. 45+ – 79%).
Notley’s personal image is slightly more positive than Smith’s but more people say their impression of Smith has gotten worse over the last few weeks.
There are still some likely voters who are undecided suggesting this week’s debate and the last 10 days of this campaign could matter a lot.
The survey was conducted with 498 Alberta adults eligible to vote from May 15 to 17, 2023
A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 4.5%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Alberta’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
ABOUT DAVID COLETTO
David Coletto is Chair, CEO and a founding partner of Abacus Data a full-service market research and strategy firm based in Ottawa and Toronto. With over a decade and a half of experience in the industry, David and his partners founded Abacus 12 years ago and since then David has become one of Canada’s most respected social researchers regularly commenting on politics, the labour market, and consumer behaviour.
He earned a PhD in Political Science from the University of Calgary in 2010 and is an adjunct professor at Carleton University. He is the host and producer of inFocus with David Coletto a podcast that explores the intersection of public opinion, politics, public policy, and consumer behaviour.
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