THE UNITED CONSERVATIVE PARTY LEADS THE NDP BY 15 AS 77% OF FORMER WILDROSE AND PC PARTY SUPPORTERS NOW SUPPORT THE UCP.

About three and a half years ago, the NDP surprised many in Alberta and across the country by winning a majority government in a province that had never elected the NDP and had been governed by the Progressive Conservative Party for 44 years.

With about six months to go before the start of the next provincial election in Alberta, we surveyed 800 Albertans at the end of October and asked them to share their views on politics in the province.

Here’s what we found:

THE UNITED CONSERVATIVE PARTY LEADS BY 15 AMONG COMMITTED VOTERS BUT 26% OF ALBERTANS SAY THEY ARE UNDECIDED.

If an election was held at the time of the survey, the United Conservative Party would likely win a majority. Overall 48% of committed voters say they would vote UCP with the incumbent NDP behind 15 points at 33%. The Alberta Liberal and Alberta parties both got 8% of the vote.

Among all respondents, 26% say they are undecided with most of those them saying they voted in the previous provincial election.

Compared to the actual election results in 2015, the NDP is down 7 points from the 40% it won, whereas the United Conservative Party is 3 points ahead of where the former PC and Wildrose parties stood if you combined their popular vote today.

The UCP leads among both younger and older Albertans (although the race is closer among those under 45) and among both men and women.

Whereas the UCP has large leads among Albertans with high school or college educations, they are tied with the NDP among those who have a university education.

Regionally, the NDP leads by 8 in Edmonton while the UCP has a 21-point lead in Calgary and a 42-point lead in communities outside of the two largest cities. The NDP is stronger among voters who say they live in an urban community (trail the UCP by 4) compared with those living in suburban or rural communities. In rural Alberta, the UCP has an astounding 44-point lead over the NDP.

Beyond the horserace, the situation is challenging for the NDP because of the limited size of its accessible voter pool.

The NDP’s accessible voter pool is 13-points smaller than that of the UCP meaning that even if the NDP converted all of its potential support into voters and mobilized them to vote, the UCP could still win if it holds onto most of its current support.

Moreover, the NDP must also deal with opponents closer to it ideologically in the form of the Liberal and Alberta parties who themselves have sizeable accessible voter pools to try and convert. In fact, as many Albertans say they are open to voting for Stephen Mandel and the Alberta Party as are those open to voting NDP.

THE NDP STRUGGLES HAVE MORE TO DO WITH A UNITED OPPONENT THAN DISSATISFACTION AMONG ITS VOTERS.

The NDP won in 2015 in large part thanks to a strong desire for change and a fractured conservative movement. Despite challenging economic conditions, the NDP government’s greatest threat is not from dissatisfaction with its performance among its past voters, but from a united opposition.

For example, among those who voted NDP in 2015, only 16% say the government has performed worse than they would have expected. 60% of PC or Wildrose voters feel the same way but on the other hand, 33% of NDP voters want a change in government, as do 66% of Albertans overall.

And while only 59% of those who voted NDP in 2015 say they would vote NDP again today, most of the defectors have not switched their support to another party, but instead, say they are undecided. 9% of past NDP voters now way they will vote UCP while another 10% are inclined to support another party (Liberal or Alberta Party). The NDP has an opportunity to rebuild its coalition from 2015 by convincing past voters that it deserves re-election and it is a better choice than its opposition. But that alone may not be enough to win again.

The reason? Because so far, the right in Alberta has reunited.

When we look at where 2015 Wildrose and PC voters have shifted, we find that 3 in 4 now say they would vote UCP. Another 13% are undecided while 10% say they would vote for another party (half of whom would vote NDP today). A united right along with some defection from the NDP to the UCP is the basis for the official opposition’s large lead in vote intention.

But several other factors can offer some insight into the dynamics at play in Alberta politics.

MORE HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPRESSION OF PREMIER NOTLEY THAN A POSITIVE ONE, BUT JASON KENNEY IS NOT FARING THAT MUCH BETTER.

Despite clear animosity towards Premier Notley, her personal numbers are nowhere near the level of negativity we have seen for other recent incumbent premiers facing re-election in Ontario or Quebec. One in three Albertans has a positive view of the Premier compared with 45% who view her negatively.

About the same number have a positive view of Jason Kenney but his negatives are 11-points lower.

David Khan and Stephen Mandel are less well known and not well defined, except in Edmonton where Mandel, as the former Mayor, is better known.

Impressions of Premier Notley match closely with vote intention patterns. She’s more popular in Edmonton and much less so in Calgary and areas outside the two major cities. Interestingly, men view her more positively than women.

Among 2015 NDP voters she is well liked (only 15% view her negatively) while PC and Wildrose voters overwhelmingly dislike her (9% disagree and have come to like the NDP leader). More important, however, among Liberal and Alberta Party voters, half have a positive view of the NDP premier suggesting an opportunity to grow support among those voters.

Impressions of UCP Leader Jason Kenney also follow similar patterns as vote intention. He is more popular in Calgary and outside the big cities and more unpopular in Edmonton. Men and older residents have a more favourable impression of him while women and younger resident feel less positive about him.

As expected, there is a strong relationship between how one feels about Premier Notley or Jason Kenney and the likelihood of supporting the party they lead. Among those who like Rachel Notley, 65% say they would vote NDP. That number drops to 11% among those who are neutral towards her and 1% among those who dislike her.

For Mr. Kenney, 87% of those who like him would vote UCP compared with 28% of those with more neutral feelings and 3% of those who dislike him. This advantage among those with “neutral” views is both an opportunity for the UCP and a potential threat.

PREMIER NOTLEY AND HER GOVERNMENT GET GOOD MARKS FOR STANDING UP FOR THE ENERGY SECTOR AND RUNNING PUBLIC SERVICES BUT STRUGGLES ON ECONOMIC AND BUDGET MANAGEMENT.

When we ask respondents to rate the performance of the provincial government in a few areas, we find residents do hold different views depending on the issue. For example, about half of residents feel the government has done a good job standing up for Alberta on the pipeline flight or standing up for the energy industry. About half think the government has done a good job running the province’s public services.

But on questions of economic and fiscal management, less than four in ten feel the government has done a good job with at least 3 in 10 feeling the government has done a very poor job. This helps explain Jason Kenney’s focus on economic development and fiscal management as it appears to be a major vulnerability for the government.

Broader perceptions about the state of the Alberta economy underscore this challenge. Most Albertans (56%) describe the provincial economy as poor or very poor. Another 5% describe it as very good and 39% say it is good.

When we ask about how things are going in other provinces and nationally, we find that Albertans are less bullish on the Canadian economy but generally feel that things are better in Ontario, BC, and especially neighbouring Saskatchewan where 62% describe the Saskatchewan economy as doing very good or good – 18 points fewer than think the same thing about the Alberta economy.

When we look specifically at perceptions of the Alberta and Saskatchewan economies, we find that 29% of Albertans feel the Alberta economy is doing poorly but feel the Saskatchewan one is doing well. This group holds quite negative views of the NDP government. Only 9% think the government is doing a good job managing the economy and only 12% voted NDP in 2015.

This difference in perceptions between how the economy is doing at home and across the provincial border in Saskatchewan is interesting and may be driving some of the underlying negativity towards the NDP government despite that fact that Alberta and Saskatchewan have similar unemployment rates and in 2017 and 2018, Alberta’s economy has grown at a faster rate than that of Saskatchewan.

UPSHOT

With about 7 months to go before the next Alberta election, the opinion environment for the NDP and Premier Rachel Notley is quite challenging. Two-thirds of Albertans want change, conservative-oriented voters have rallied and mostly united around Jason Kenney and the United Conservative Party, and despite some goodwill for Premier Notley, the smaller pool of accessible voters for the NDP means it has much less room for error and fewer paths to victory.

The UCP is in a strong position thanks to its effectiveness at uniting former PC and Wildrose party supporters. With a 15-point lead in vote intentions, a 13-point advantage in terms of accessible voters, and broad and deep support outside of Edmonton, the UCP is well positioned to win come next spring.

But a few data points suggest it’s still too early to call it for the UCP.

First, one in four Albertans are undecided and a majority of those undecided respondents said they voted in the previous election. Many are former NDP supporters who are somewhat disappointed with the government but are not fully comfortable with alternatives.

Second, compared with other premiers and provincial governments that have been defeated over the past year, Rachel Notley is more popular and the desire for change is not as intense as with those other cases. Albertans do give her credit for standing up for the province in the pipeline debate and recognize her efforts standing up for the energy industry. If the economic situation in the province and provincial finances continue to improve there may be space for an NDP comeback.

However, one challenge stands in the NDP’s way – the UCP and Jason Kenney. As long as conservative-oriented voters are united behind Jason Kenney and the UCP, even with all those who voted NDP back under the orange tent, the UCP would likely still win.

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 800 Albertans aged 18 and over from October 24 to 27, 2018. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.5%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Alberta’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the unprecedented threat of generational change and technological disruption.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

Contact us with any questions.

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Canadians may be somewhat divided as to whether the country is heading in the right direction (40%) or off on the wrong track (37%), but compared to what we see in the rest of the world, the consensus seems to be things could be worse.  Around the world, only 16% see things going in the right direction, while 61% say things are off on the wrong track.

There are regional, political and slight generational differences in feelings about the direction of things in Canada.  Younger people are more likely to feel positive, and “right track” is the plurality response in BC, Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada.  Prairie residents and Conservative voters occupy the other end of the spectrum on this question.

But when evaluating the state of the world, differences in view among Canadians are modest – people in all age groups, regions, and every party believe the world is doing badly

THE BIG PROBLEMS FACING CANADA

To dig into the issues that matter to people today, we used a question structure that the Pew Research team has used, allowing us to compare results in the US to those in Canada.  We asked people to rate the seriousness of a series of issues in Canada.  Here are some of the interesting findings of the leading concerns of Canadians.

-The adage holds that elections are always about the economy. But while the top economic concern is usually jobs, today, things are different. People are more concerned about wages, the cost of living, the cost of housing, and the gap between the rich and the poor.

-The opioid crisis has also become a large, mainstream concern. Drug addiction has probably never figured as prominently among the concerns of Canadians than it does today.

-Climate change ranks relatively high on the list of concerns, just slightly ahead of illegal immigration and the federal deficit.

For the most part, the hierarchy of top problems is similar for younger as for older Canadians, but older people put more emphasis on drug addiction, the budget deficit, and illegal immigration while younger Canadians are more likely to feel that job opportunities and racism are problems.

Women rated all the issues more seriously than men. The gap is largest on housing affordability, wages, and cost of living, drug addiction, climate change, and sexism.

Because the differences in partisan leanings are markedly different between those living on the Prairies and those in Ontario and Quebec, we took a look at the differences in issues of importance. On the Prairies, housing costs are roughly equivalent in the importance of drug addiction, the deficit and illegal immigration. In central Canada, gun violence, the gap between rich and poor, and especially climate change all show significantly higher levels of concern.

Politically, there are some very sharp differences. Conservatives are far more likely to rate the federal budget deficit, illegal immigration, and terrorism as very big. NDP voters are more likely to emphasize wages and the cost of living and the gap between the rich and the poor.  Liberal and NDP supporters are far more preoccupied with climate change compared to Conservatives supporters. Liberals are least likely to see illegal immigration as a very big problem while NDP supporters are more likely to be concerned about housing affordability although that issue is the highest concern for the most people overall.

Roughly 8 million voters are characterized as “Persuadable” or swing voters in our segmentation model (people who say they are inclined to want a change in government but could be persuaded to vote to re-elect the incumbents).

When we compare Blue Persuadables (inclined to vote Conservative) and Orange Persuadables (inclined to vote NDP) there are distinct agenda differences.  Orange Persuadables focus on the gap between the rich and poor, climate change, and wages and cost of living, while Blue Persuadables are more preoccupied with the federal budget deficit and illegal immigration.

CANADIANS AND AMERICANS

When looking at recent results to these questions among Americans, we see:

-Similar levels of concern about wages and the cost of living, illegal immigration, climate change, and jobs.

-Americans are 19 points more preoccupied with the deficit, 19 points more likely to say sexism is a very big problem, and over 25 points more concerned about drug addiction, gun violence, and racism. Drug addiction is the most intense concern of all of those tested in the US.

UPSHOT

The level of anxiety in America is clearly higher than it is in Canada, and the list of concerns is quite different in some respects.  Overall, it seems that economic growth and jobs are not as pressing a concern as wages, the cost of living, and economic inequality.  This appears true in both countries.

America is grappling with drug addiction and gun violence and feels considerably more stress around gender and race equality.  Americans are also showing some reaction to the growth in the federal deficit under President Trump.

Here in Canada, the principal focus for many people is the cost of living. Beyond that, we see some important differences by region and political affiliation. Climate change is a preoccupation for centre and left voters but conservatives and Prairie voters do not attach nearly as much importance to the issue. Similar cleavages are evident on illegal immigration and gun violence.

Canadians are far from universally happy or complacent, but there is clearly a sense that our problems are not as big as those in other parts of the world, and the data show that while we have political cleavages, they are isolated to a handful of issues, around climate change, law and order and to some degree cultural diversity/immigration.  The next election promises to be an important test of what agenda is chosen by the most voters, and what solutions they favour to the issues they care about.

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 1,650 Canadians aged 18 and over from October 24 to 29, 2018. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.  The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the unprecedented threat of generational change and technological disruption.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

Contact us with any questions.

In our latest national survey, we asked several questions about the recently agreed to trilateral trade deal (USMCA) which is proposed to replace NAFTA.

Here is what we found:

Across the country, 59% believe that it was a “good step” for Canada to decide to enter this agreement, based on what they have heard or read about it, while 41% feel it was a bad step.  Majorities of 61% or higher in every region say good step, except for Quebec, where 47% say good step and 53% feel it was a bad step.

Across partisan lines, the deal was welcomed by half of NDP voters, 59% of Conservatives and 75% of Liberal voters.  Among Blue Persuadables, 58% say the deal was a good step while among Orange Persuadables, 51% feel that way.

(Blue Persuadables are those who are planning on voting Conservative but say the incumbent Liberals might be able to win their support in next year’s election.  Orange Persuadables are those planning on voting NDP but who say they could be persuaded to support the Liberals)

Most people (59%) feel that the “Trudeau government achieved as much as was possible in negotiating on Canada’s behalf” while 41% believe “a Conservative government led by Andrew Scheer could have achieved more for Canada.”  The belief that the Trudeau government got the best deal possible is 60% or higher in every region except for Alberta, where it drops to 38%.  Across party lines, 92% of Liberals say the government got the best deal possible, 68% of New Democrats and 19% of Conservatives.

When asked if they were a Member of Parliament whether they would vote for or against the deal, 59% said they would vote in favour, 41% opposed, with support 61% or higher in every region but Quebec, where 48% would vote in favour and 52% opposed.  Among NDP voters and Orange Persuadables 51% would vote yes on the deal.  Among Conservatives and Blue Persuadables the proportions voting yes would be 55% and 56% respectively.

The issue of dairy market access played out prominently in the talks, and we asked the following question: “One of the things that Canada agreed to in the new USMCA was to let American dairy producers have more access to sell their dairy products to Canadian consumers.  Canadian dairy farmers had opposed this. Which is closer to your view …I’m very opposed to any changes that allow the US more access to our dairy market…I think it’s a reasonable trade-off to allow the US more access to our dairy market in exchange for having a trade agreement…or I don’t have any feelings one way or the other about this.”

On this question, 43% expressed opposition to allowing more US producer access to Canada’s dairy market, while an almost equal number said they felt this was a reasonable trade-off while 18% have no clear views.  Discomfort is 14 points higher in Quebec compared to the rest of the country.

Across party lines, 33% of Liberal voters are unhappy about that aspect of the deal, while 53% accept the trade-off and 16% have no real opinion.  Conservative unhappiness with the impact on dairy registers at 42% while 60% of NDP voters are opposed to this aspect of the deal.

UPSHOT

When Canada first agreed to enter into a free trade agreement with the US, Canadians were anxious about the potential downsides and hesitant about whether it was a good idea.

With 30 years of experience of free trade, opinion has shifted and most Canadians indicate relief that a new deal has been reached, having wondered if that would be possible, given the uncertainty that has marked the trade relationships of the US, under President Donald Trump.  Given that Liberal vote has been in the 33%-38% range lately, the fact that about 60% are supportive of this new deal indicates that the issue is at this point in time, a positive for Mr. Trudeau and his party.

There is evidence of some discomfort with the dairy provisions, especially in Quebec, and time will tell whether this becomes a larger or persistent source of unhappiness with the USMCA outcome.

So far, at least, the USMCA deal is not a situation where many voters think a Conservative government would have been able to accomplish more.

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 2,109 Canadians aged 18 and over from October 5 to 12, 2018. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.  The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the unprecedented threat of generational change and technological disruption.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

Contact us with any questions.

On behalf of The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), we conducted a national survey of 2,500 Canadian millennials (those aged 18 to 38) earlier this spring (April 18 to May 9). The survey explored attitudes and perceptions around housing with Canada’s largest generation.

Come the time of the next federal election in 2019, millennials will make up the largest group of eligible voters and Elections Canada estimates voter turnout among young voters increased by about 15 percentage points from 2011 to 2015. Given the size of the generation, if they vote collectively and turnout, they can have a major impact on the outcome of the next election.

Here are the highlights from the research:

MORE MILLENNIALS BELIEVE THAT THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SHOULD MAKE HOUSING AFFORDABILITY A TOP OR VERY HIGH PRIORITY THAN OTHER ISSUES.

Over 6 in 10 millennials rated housing affordability as a top or very high priority. It’s the top issue of those we tested and six points higher than government spending, cutting taxes, prescription drug prices, and fighting climate change.

And concern about housing affordability is not confined to the Greater Toronto Area or the lower mainland of British Columbia. Majorities in every province, except for Quebec, rated affordable housing as a top or very high priority for the federal government to focus on.

THE DREAM OF HOMEOWNERSHIP IS ALIVE AND WELL WITH MILLENNIALS.

 The concern about housing affordability among millennials comes from their strong desire to own their own home. Among those who do not own a home yet, 86% said they want to own a home someday and over two-thirds of this group are passionate about owning a home. For many millennials, homeownership and home improvement are topics they obsess over. Watching HGTV or browsing REALTOR.ca listings is a common practice for many young Canadians. The data confirms this.

MOST MILLENNIALS FEEL IT HAS BECOME MORE DIFFICULT TO BUY A RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY IN THE PAST YEAR.

 But the dream to own is up against growing anxiety about their ability to get into the housing market. Most millennials say that it has become more difficult to buy a residential property in the past year, including 63% of those who don’t currently own but want to.

And again, these feelings are not isolated to those living around Toronto, Vancouver, or Montreal – although perceptions are more acute in those regions. In urban, suburban, and rural communities across the country, a majority or a large plurality of millennials say it has become more difficult to buy a home in the past year.

When asked what affects affordability millennials are more likely to cite saving enough for a down payment (47%), the cost of carrying the home with monthly mortgage payments (44%), or specifically mortgage interest rates (38%). Fewer, but still a sizeable minority, feel that low supply or foreign buyers are a very big factor impact housing affordability in Canada.

MILLENNIALS FEEL THAT SOME POLICY CHANGES ARE HAVING A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON HOUSING AFFORDABILITY.

 When we asked what impact three policy changes have had on housing affordability, most feel that interest rate increases and government decisions that make it more difficult for people to get a mortgage have had a negative impact on housing affordability. One in three feels the same way about the new government rule that imposed new restrictions on when it will insure some properties worth more than $1 million.

INCREASING THE FIRST TIME HOME BUYERS TAX CREDIT IS HIGHLY APPEALING TO MILLENNIALS.

One policy opinion being recommended by the Canadian Real Estate Association is highly appealing to millennials. We presented a proposal that would increase the existing First Time Home Buyers Tax Credit from $750 to $5000 for those under 40. Overall, 65% felt it was a good idea and another 23% thought it was an acceptable idea. Few felt that it was a bad idea.

THE UPSHOT

 Over the past few years, I’ve noticed that housing affordability has been rising as a top concern for Canada’s millennial generation. This survey adds further evidence as young Canadians are increasingly concerned about their ability to afford a place to live and the dream of homeownership is slipping away from them.

Most want to own a home and many are passionate about the topic. It monopolizes conversations not just around Toronto and Vancouver, but in communities across the country as millennials feel that it is becoming more difficult to buy a home. Many feel that decisions being made by the federal government are having a negative impact, and there’s a clear desire for policy solutions to make the dream easier to achieve.

Housing is an issue that could activate millennials to engage in politics and turnout to vote in the next election. There’s a clear opportunity for political leaders to empathize with young Canadians, lead on the issue, and offer solutions to a challenge that most feel hopeless to solve.

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted online with 2,500 Canadians aged 18 to 38 (Millennials) from April 18 to May 9, 2018. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the 20-minute survey from several online panels of Canadians.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s millennial population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

May have less to do with a pipeline, more about attracting investment and helping with housing affordability.

As of today, 42% of voters say they would like to see the Liberals re-elected next year, and 58% say they would prefer to see a different party take power in Ottawa.  To put this in context, the Liberal Party won in 2015 with 39% of the vote – so 42% can be enough, but there is not a great deal of room between these two numbers.

While the desire for a change is broad, what often affects the outcome is the intensity of voter feelings. In our latest study we explored more about how determined people were to see change, and what if anything the Liberals could do to persuade them and win a second Trudeau term.

When we ask the 58% who want change whether there is anything the Liberals could do that would persuade them to support.  The results reveal a scenario where another 32% of the voting public indicate they could be persuaded to vote to re-elect the Liberals.

To better understand these 32% persuadable voters, we’ve focused in on a group that is presently planning to vote either Conservative (9% of the population, we will call Blue Persuadables) or NDP (6% of the population, we’ll call Orange Persuadables).  Together this 15% could become crucial swing voters for the Liberals as they begin planning their platform and election campaign.

We then went on to explore how many of these voters could be won over to the Liberal column based on a variety of different issues and initiatives. Not surprisingly, the list of things that would pull Orange Persuadables is somewhat different from that which would work for Blue Persuadables – but it’s not as different as one might expect.

For Orange Persuadables, the top 5 items among the 16 we tested were improving housing affordability, improving equality for women, helping reduce student debt, introducing a national pharmacare plan and broadening our trade relationships.  Here are some of the things we find interesting in this data.

Near the very bottom of the list are introducing a carbon price and dropping the TMX pipeline, which are reminders that while activists may be very vocal on these issues – these may not be matters of great topicality for regular voters. Almost as many Orange Persuadables would be won over by completing the pipeline as by dropping the project, also a reminder that many NDP supporters see value in the jobs of the extractive sector and in the construction business.

On carbon pricing, more Orange Persuadables would be won over by moves to making a carbon price neutral in terms of impact on the cost of living for voters than by the introduction of a carbon price itself. Ideas about consumer rebates could be helpful not only with hesitant conservative voters but “cost of living stressed” left of centre voters as well.

Broadening our trade relationships to more countries has more pulling power than many other items on this list, including completing an updated NAFTA deal. This is a reminder that in the era of Donald Trump, Canadians may be more convinced than ever of the virtue of putting more of our eggs in different baskets.

Turning to the Blue Persuadables, the top 5 items that could pull votes towards the Liberals are attracting more investment and jobs, doing more to control the border, improving housing affordability, tighter gun controls and doing more to limit spending and deficits.  Number 6 on the list is broadening our trade relationships.  What’s interesting in this data?

The current debate about gun controls is not the same as a long-form gun registry. There may be a significant number of conservative voters who see tighter controls over handguns and automatic weapons as a question of public safety/law and order.

The fact that housing affordability is at or near the top of the list for both groups underscores how powerful the cost of housing has become as a source of frustration for many middle to lower income and younger voters, especially in the country’s largest urban centres. Any party looking to create a platform that resonates would be well advised to look for solutions that might appeal to these voters.

Attracting investment and more jobs is a bigger pull than limiting spending, finishing TMX or concluding a deal on NAFTA. These persuadable conservatives will be attentive to a future growth story including about diversification of trading relationships, more than a retrenchment or austerity pitch.

UPSHOT

A lot of commentary focuses on the horserace numbers separating the three main parties, but a more interesting way to evaluate how this election scenario is shaping up is to recognize how many voters are up for grabs, and what might motivate them one way or another.

The Liberals have suffered some losses of top-line support over the last year but a remarkably large number of voters say they could be persuaded to want a Trudeau second term.  Doing something to help people trying to get into the housing market, broadening trade relationships, attracting investment, are the areas of focus that tend to cut across the spectrum in terms of appeal, and in some ways are more topical for people than the high profile debates about carbon price and pipelines.

For the Liberals, efforts to complete the pipeline and soften the consumer impact of a carbon price seem to be a path that will be perhaps as good as they can find on these contentious issues.

For Conservatives, these numbers are a reminder that the desire for change is not all that broad at this point, nor is it all that deeply felt. To win, they likely will need more than the current level of frustration with the Liberals and many of the ideas on this list might usefully be considered in their platform development.  Certainly, opposing more gun controls might be a question worth careful consideration, as might be the intense focus on the pipeline and carbon price question.  No doubt these animate the base but maybe leaving other voters to wonder what’s in a Conservative wish list for them.

Methodology

Our survey was conducted online with 2,000 Canadians aged 18 and over from September 14 to 19, 2018 2018. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.  The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.