What do Canadians know about Canadian politics and institutions?

In a recent national survey, we asked Canadians five questions to get a sense of how well people know some facts about our political system.   Here’s what we found.

3 out of 10 think someone other than the Prime Minister chooses the members of the federal Cabinet. 13% think the Governor General chooses, 13% think the Liberal caucus does, 3% say these picks are up to Her Majesty the Queen.

1 in 3 people (32%) believe the NDP has formed government in Ottawa at some point in the past, and 11% think this has happened more than once.

1 in 4 people (26%) thinks the Governor General decides the direction of the government “which the Prime Minister must then follow” while 74% correctly answer that the PM sets the direction.

Only 33% believe that the federal Cabinet is made up of 50% women. Among women under 45, only 19% think that women hold half the Cabinet positions, among women above that age, the proportion who answered correctly was 36%.


17% believe the federal government is responsible for education, while 83% correctly answer that the provinces hold this power.

Eight in ten (81%) got at least one of these questions wrong, but almost no one (2%) got them all wrong. One in five (19%) got all 5 questions right. Of the top quartile (those who got all the questions right, most (59%) were men, and the average age was 55, they are 11 points more likely than average to be university educated, 13 points more likely to be retired.  40% would consider voting Conservative, 49% would consider voting NDP, and 57% would consider voting Liberal.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “Every day those of us who consume a great deal of information about politics and public policy can usefully remind ourselves that many Canadians do not follow politics particularly closely.  For those in government, business or civil society who work to inform and advocate, it’s crucial to start with a realistic understanding of how much background information the average citizen has – or doesn’t have.  This is especially relevant when discussing highly complex policy issues such as climate change but it also is true where people in politics might expect that some 6 years after introducing the idea of a gender-balanced Cabinet, a great number of people including the large majority of women, are unaware that this has happened.”

According to David Coletto: “These results don’t surprise me. For a long time, we’ve known that a large proportion of the public doesn’t know much about how our federal political institutions work or their recent history. But these results are a reminder that many Canadians, including many who regularly vote, are not engaged deeply in what happens in Ottawa. The gap between what people believe and what is the truth can be a powerful driver for other attitudes and behaviours. Understanding that gap is critical to effective policy making advocacy, and government and public relations.”

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 2,200 Canadian adults from October 15 to 20, 2021. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.9%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Building Bridges, Strengthening Communities

In mid-June, Abacus Data conducted a national public opinion survey commissioned by the Rideau Hall Foundation. The survey was conducted with 1,750 young people in Canada, aged 16 to 24. The intentions of the survey were to understand how young people define community and participate in their community through actions like volunteering.

There is little research about how young people define community and how their definitions impact engagement with their community, especially since the COVID-19 pandemic. What we found shows that investing in a young individual’s own sense of belonging does a great deal to build a broader sense of community. Giving young people a space to belong cultivates their desire to engage, give back, and encourage others around them to do the same.

The relationship between a sense of community and community service is strong- those who feel supported, support. But with a relationship this strong, the inverse is also true. Those who don’t feel supported are not inclined to give back. And failing to provide young people an opportunity to cultivate community risks growing divisiveness in our society.

COMMUNITY IS MORE LIKE A FEELING THAN A PLACE, THAT CAN EVOLVE OVER TIME

When asked to describe ‘community’ in their own words, young people in Canada tend to describe the feeling they get from a community, rather than a specific attribute like location, membership etc. Sentiments like ‘friendly’ ‘helpful’, and ‘togetherness’ are commonly used when asked to provide their definition.

THE PANDEMIC HAS IMPACTED OUR COMMUNITIES, INCLUDING HOW WE ACCESS AND DEFINE THEM 

The pandemic has had an impact on the communities of young people in Canada, for the better and for the worse. 27% said they’ve found it easier to connect with their community, with the pandemic being a spark to solidify and strengthen relationships of those around them. But these respondents are the exception: 55% of young people in Canada say it’s been more difficult to connect with their community since the start of the pandemic.

Interestingly, there has been a change in how a majority of young people define their community since the beginning of the pandemic. Young people are just as likely to place those they meet online (26%) in their inner community (those they feel the strongest connection to) as their neighbours living in the same physical neighbourhood (27%). And shared values, morals and interests are far more important than being in the same physical space.

A SENSE OF COMMUNITY HAS A TANGIBLE IMPACT BEYOND OUR OWN SENSE OF BELONGING

Whatever the definition, having a strong sense of community is important. Not only does it help youth feel like they belong, but it increases their chances of being an active participant in community, whatever that looks like.

While it may seem like a bit of a given, having a sense of community isn’t just about taking what a community offers, it’s also about giving back. And a young person’s desire to give back isn’t just talk; it turns into real action too.

Among those who feel like they belong in at least one community, 52% volunteer (either formally or informally). Among those who don’t feel like they belong in any community, this number drops 16 points to 36%.

The relationship between sense of community and community service is strong. One of the biggest predictors of having a sense of community is not income, age, or gender, but whether or not an individual volunteers. And one of the biggest predictors of whether or not a young person volunteers is their sense of community. Having a group of young people with a strong connection means having a group of young people who want to actively participate and make their community a better place.

Young people often depend on their community to offer a web of supports and places to be a part of something bigger than themselves. But the pandemic has made the possibility of establishing these connections challenging, with half our young people saying they’ve become disconnected from their communities. This threatens young peoples’ opportunity to find their place, and in turn, reduces their chances to strengthen the communities they belong to.

COMMUNITY IS CONTAGIOUS, BUT SOMETIMES EXCLUSIVE

For those that are part of a community, it’s contagious. When young people feel a strong sense of community, they are much more likely to want others to feel the same, and work to serve their community through volunteerism.

The second biggest predictor of sense of community for youth is whether or not their parents are involved in the community, and the third is their parent’s financial situation. Being from a family that values community service and has the money to spend their time doing so is a big predictor of whether young people will feel connected to a community.

Exclusivity of communities doesn’t come from age, gender or one’s own income, but rather socio-economic status. Having parents or role models who could model behaviour on volunteering, provides an introduction into a volunteer network, and provides financial assistance to join a club, sport or organization. These are far bigger predictors of a young person’s sense of community than their age, gender, or ethnicity.

We know the relationship between sense of belonging and serving one’s community is powerful. And we need to capitalize on this relationship and use it to our advantage to build stronger communities.

THE UPSHOT

Protecting and building a sense of community is important. It’s important for young people to feel like they have a place to belong for their own wellbeing, but also because young people feel encouraged to be active participants in their community and give back when they feel supported themselves, even into adulthood.

We found a similar relationship among adults feeling connected to public institutions and civic engagement — those who feel a connection with public institutions, and feel they are relevant, are much more likely to be active participants civically, and vote in elections. Likewise, young people who feel connected to their community are more likely to actively participate and volunteer.

Just as important as strengthening a sense of community among young people already in a network is the importance of providing opportunities for others to join in. If community truly is contagious, we should be working on being relevant and accessible, becoming more inclusive, and building opportunities to bring more young people into the fold. And now is the time to do it. The pandemic has impacted, shifted, and shaped how we define community. We’ve been closed off and isolated from those around us, but at the same time we’ve also allowed our own definition of community to change and be a little less reliant on location. Young people, and their communities, thrive when connections can be made. But for half of young people in Canada, these connections have been strained.

Building community can combat the growing divisiveness we’ve seen on social media and online communities, that has only been exacerbated since the start of the pandemic. And without an effort to foster community, we risk a growing number of youth feeling disconnected and not able to live up to their fullest potential.

Rather than allowing the pandemic to divide us, we need to work together to strengthen what bonded us together in the past, and invite others, who we may not have considered to be part of our community to come into the fold.

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted online with 1,750 Canadian residents aged 16 to 24, from June 17 to 27, 2021. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.34%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Renting: Smooth Sailing or Jumping Ship?

In our most recent survey, we looked at how Canadian renters are doing. Are they renting happily ever after or are they looking for greener pastures by purchasing a home as soon as possible? What is the current market outlook for renters right now? How is the rental market doing in terms of affordability and availability? Here is what we found:

Who are “renters”? A third (35%) of Canadians fall under the category of “renters”. Renters are most likely to be Millennials, have lower incomes, and live in urban areas. 44% of renters live alone (55% men vs. 35% women live alone), 30% live with a partner (girlfriend, boyfriend, spouse, etc.), 20% live with family, and 6% live with a roommate.

How do renters feel about affordability? After the last couple of years of the skyrocketing housing market, it’s understandable that there is a growing conversation about the affordability of all kinds of housing. The housing crisis impacts more than just buyers. 75% of renters feel that renting has become less affordable in the area they live in – 91% of those who are living beyond their means feel this way. This is especially true for those living in metropolitan areas like Montreal (85%) and Toronto (82%). Just under half (47%) feel that the rent they pay is more expensive than it needs to be. In addition, just over half (53%) of renters admit that their quality of life is suffering because of the high cost of rent.

As a result, a third of renters (32%) have moved out of a city or community that they enjoy living in to better afford rent – especially those who are living beyond their means (58%).

Affordability can play a role in renters feeling stuck or choosing to stay in unfavourable living situations. We asked Canadian renters who live with a roommate, a partner or family, if they are in their current living situation because of affordability issues. We found that 77% of those who live with a roommate do so because they cannot afford to live on their own, and about half (45%) still live with family for the same reason. A large majority of renters that live with a partner don’t consider affordability as a reason they live together, but a third (35%) do. Though overall this is not a large portion of renters, it’s sizeable when considering this group would choose to not live with their partner if living alone were more affordable.

Two-thirds (63%) of renters that do live alone admit that they sometimes think about living with someone else to help make life more affordable (71% men vs. 52% women).

This is the crux of rental affordability: Those who live with someone sometimes wish they could afford to live alone for a number of reasons, and those that live alone are considering the prospect of splitting the cost with someone else.

What about supply? Not only are renters’ budgets being challenged by high prices, availability of rental units or homes is also limited. 6 in 10 (60%) renters feel that there aren’t enough rentals available in the area they want to live in. This particularly rings true for those living in British Columbia, those 45-59, and those living beyond their means.

The limited supply of rental units and homes is further challenged by renters’ uncertainty over the future of their current tenancy. In terms of unexpected events and landlords upsetting renters’ current situations, we learned that 3 in 10 are concerned that their landlord may do anything ranging from selling the property and terminating their tenancy (31%) or evicting renters to conduct renovation (27%) or on the basis of needing their rental unit for personal use for them or a family member (26%).

How are renters feeling about the future? With rental prices at an all-time high, and supply not meeting demand, renters are left with an impossible decision to make: Do I continue to rent and contribute to someone else’s mortgage, or should I bite the bullet and buy? Nearly half (45%) really want to own a home someday (49% women vs. 40% men), but the other half is split between those who don’t think owning a home is that important and those who would be happy renting the rest of their life.

Among renters who really want to own a home someday, 3 in 4 (76%) are concerned that if they stay in the rental market much longer, housing prices will continue to rise, and owning a home will become even more out of reach.

Are there supports for renters? Until the housing market fizzles and prices stabilize, renters are stuck with high prices and limited alternatives. One option we tested was interest in a rent-to-own program that was included as part of the Liberal platform in the 2021 Election. We found that 64% of renters would be interested in taking advantage of this. Among those that really want to own a home someday, interest in a program of this kind jumps up 20-points. We can speculate that renters see this kind of program as a legitimate stepping stone to help them reach their goal of owning a home. It would be worth further exploring this program among renters to see what kind of terms would be useful or not useful.

THE UPSHOT According to Megan Ross

Whether you’re in the rental market long-term or looking to purchase a home soon, affordability over the last couple of years hit an all-time low. The rental market, in its current state, looks pretty bleak – high prices and limited availability of units/homes in areas that renters want to live in. This has impacted renters’ outlook on the future and living situations.

Being able to afford to live alone – if you want to – is a luxury these days. No one wants to be in an unfavourable living situation. Rental prices are difficult to afford even for those with partners or roommates or family to supplement the cost. Those who strive for independence in the form of having their own place to call home often need support to achieve this.

What can we expect in the coming months or years? A sizeable portion of renters are still looking to own a home someday and express interest in government programs to help them do so. Many will need support to make the transition to homeownership, which, in turn, opens up space for new renters to enter the rental market.

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 2,200 Canadian adults from October 8 to 12, 2021. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.9%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

What do Canadians think about climate change and climate action?

As the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference, also known as COP26, kicks off this weekend in Glasgow, I thought it would be worthwhile to take a measure of Canadian public opinion towards climate change. To track opinions, I asked a series of questions we have fielded over the past few years on our most recent national omnibus survey.

Here’s what our survey of 2,200 Canadians (conducted from October 15 to 20, 2021) found:

TWO-THIRDS BELIEVE THERE IS SOLID EVIDENCE THAT THE EARTH IS WARMING

Almost all Canadians believe there is at least some evidence that the earth is warming, including 69% who say there is either conclusive or solid evidence that the average temperature on earth has been getting warmer over the past few decades.

This view is shared widely across demographic groups and across the country. Even in Alberta, a majority believe there is solid evidence that climate change is happening.

And this view has increased since September 2015. Back then, 65% believed there was at least solid evidence representing a 4-point increase in the past six years. More importantly, those believing that there is “conclusive evidence” that the earth is warming have increased 8-points – from 29% to 37%.

At the same time, more Canadians believe that global warming is being caused by human activity. In 2015, 71% felt global warming was being caused by human activity. Today, it’s 75%.

WHY SHOULD WE COMBAT CLIMATE CHANGE?

When asked to rank four possible reasons why we need to do more to combat climate change, responses remain quite mixed.

Some (30%) believe we have a moral responsibility to pass on a planet that is safe and healthy to the next generation. A similar proportion (29%) believe fighting climate change by shifting to more efficient energy use will bring new economic opportunities for Canadians.

Another 1 in 5 think the best reason is that the strongest economies in the future will be those that transition to using more renewable energy and Canada shouldn’t fall behind while a similar number think that extreme weather events have become a financial disaster that we need to avoid.

Since 2018, views have shifted somewhat. Today, more people see the economic benefits of fighting climate change in terms of clean technology and the impact of extreme weather disasters.

TWO-THIRDS WANT TO SEE GOVERNMENTS DO MORE TO REDUCE EMISSIONS

Despite efforts by governments to reduce emissions, most Canadians want to see governments do more. 66% would like to see governments in Canada put more emphasis on reducing emissions, 15% want to see less done and 19% think the current trajectory is sufficient.

These views have remained relatively consistent over the past half-decade, despite more focus and effort by governments at all levels of government. Back in September 2015, 69% wanted to see more emphasis on reducing emissions. Today it’s 66%.

Regionally, a majority want to see governments do more in every region except for Alberta. But even in Alberta, by almost a 2 to 1 margin residents want more emphasis on climate change than less.

There’s also fairly widespread political consensus. Almost 8 in 10 of those who voted Liberal, NDP, or Green in 2021 want to see governments do more whereas Conservative Party supporters are more divided. That being said, even among Conservative voters, 44% want to see more emphasis from governments while 24% want to see less.

WHAT’S THE BEST WAY TO REDUCE EMISSIONS?

When asked to rank approaches governments can take to reduce emissions, Canadians are more likely to prefer rules and regulations that require emissions reductions and subsidies to encourage the adoption of low-carbon technologies. Carbon pricing is less likely to be ranked high but there has been a shift in views.

Back in 2018, only 13% ranked carbon pricing as their most preferred approach. Today, 20% feel it is the best way to reduce emissions, a shift of 7-points in 3 years.

VIEWS ON DEVELOPING CANADA’S OIL & GAS RESOURCES

Canadians are divided on whether Canada should or should not develop its oil and gas resources. 51% think we need to take measures to greatly slow or stop the development and transmission of oil and gas to meet emissions reduction targets while 49% think Canada should continue to develop its oil and gas resources.

But views on this question have shifted since 2018. Back then, 60% felt we should develop those resources while 40% thought we shouldn’t. In 3-years, that’s an 11-point swing in favour of slowing or stopping the development of our oil and gas resources.

Regionally, half or more think oil and gas development needs to be slowed or stopped in BC, Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada. Only 32% feel this way in Alberta.

Politically, 2 in 3 Conservative voters think oil and gas development should continue while a similar proportion feels the opposite among NDP and Green Party voters. Among those who voted Liberal in 2021, about half think development should slow or stop while about half feel it should continue.

UPSHOT

As the world gathers to coordinate efforts to combat climate change, Canadian public opinion has shifted. More people think there’s conclusive evidence that climate change is happening. Three in four understand that human activity is causing climate change and two-thirds want governments to do more.

But there is less consensus on the approach public policy should take. Canadians are divided both regionally and politically on whether we should develop our oil and gas reserves.

More frequent and severe weather events continue to put a spotlight on the impacts of climate change. Consumers are becoming more open and interested in zero-emission vehicles and are looking for ways to reduce their own emissions.

But strong leadership is still required to unite Canadians behind a plan to get to net-zero. The public is there, waiting to be led.

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 2,200 Canadian adults from October 15 to 20, 2021. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.9%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

What are Canadians thinking before the new federal government is sworn in?

We completed a national survey of 2,220 Canadian adults from October 15 to 20, 2021 to measure sentiment just prior to a new federal Cabinet being sworn in.

PUBLIC MOOD & GOVERNMENT APPROVAL

About equal numbers feel things in Canada are headed in the right direction (43%) than those who feel it is off on the wrong track (41%). The percentage of those who think the country is headed in the right direction is lower than a peak in June (-4) but substantially higher than in the spring. Canadians are far more bearish on how things are going around the world or in the United States.

As the new Liberal government is set to be sworn in, about equal numbers approve and disapprove of the federal government. Since February of this year, the federal government’s approval rating has held fairly steady between a range of 40% to 46%.

PRIORITIES FOR THE NEW PARLIAMENT

Respondents were asked to set priorities among ten different possible items, for the new Parliament. Improving health care, completing vaccinations and getting life back to normal, helping with the cost of living and housing, and combatting climate change rose to the top of the list.

Less emphasis was placed on “reducing the deficit”, “improving Canada’s economic competitiveness”, “dealing with labour shortages”, “making more progress on reconciliation” or “implementing a national childcare program”, but many still felt they should all be a high priority.

Underneath these overall numbers, given the fact of a minority government, it is useful to examine how the supporters of different parties see things.

• Top priorities for Conservative voters were the cost of living, the deficit, health care, and more vaccinations/life back to normal. Climate change was 7th on their priority list.

• Top priorities for Liberal voters were health care, vaccinations, cost of living, and climate.

• Top priorities for NDP voters were vaccinations, climate, housing, and the cost of living.

VACCINATIONS AND MPs

We also asked respondents their views about whether MPs should be vaccinated if they are going to be physically in the House of Commons.

Three of four (77%) felt that MPs should be vaccinated, including:

• 87% of those who are fully vaccinated.
• At least 72% in every region, from a low of 72% in Alberta to a high of 80% in BC.
• 66% of current Conservative voters and 69% of those who said they voted Conservative in September.
• 68% of those who disapprove of the performance of the Trudeau government.

In this survey, 6% of Canadians said they refuse to be vaccinated personally. Among these people, 91% believe that MPs should not be required to be vaccinated.

CURRENT VOTE INTENTION

If an election were held now, the Liberals would win 33% of the vote (1 point higher than the result of the 2021 election), the Conservatives would win 30% (4 points lower) and the NDP 19% (1 point higher). The BQ is at 7% nationally while the People’s Party is at 6%.



• In BC, we find a three-way race with the Liberals at 31%, the NDP at 30%, and the Conservatives at 28%.

• In Alberta, 53% would vote Conservative compared with 16% for the People’s Party, 13% for the Liberals, and 13% for the NDP.

• In Manitoba and Saskatchewan, the Conservatives lead with 49% followed by the Liberals and NDP at 19% respectively.

• In Ontario, the Liberals have a 10-point lead over the Conservatives (40% to 30%) with the NDP in third at 21%.

• In Quebec, we see the BQ slightly ahead of the Liberals (34% to 31%) with the Conservatives at 15% and the NDP at 10%.

• In the Atlantic provinces, the Liberals are ahead by 20 over the Conservatives – 47% to 27% with the NDP at 19%.

LEADER IMPRESSIONS

Justin Trudeau enjoys a positive impression among 38% and negative impressions among 44%, for a net score of -6. This is largely unchanged from the last week of the 2021 election campaign.

Jagmeet Singh enjoys a positive impression among 44% and finds negative impressions among 22% for a net score of +22.

Today 25% have a positive impression of the Conservative leader Erin O’Toole (5 points lower than we found at the end of the 2021 campaign) while his negatives are at 44% (+1). His net score is -19.

In Quebec, BQ Leader Mr. Blanchet is 42% positive and 29% negative for a net score of +13. In contrast, Mr. Trudeau is -5 and Mr. O’Toole is -17 in Quebec.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “This survey reveals a population that is neither filled with optimism or with despair – the strongest signal here is probably the desire to see the pandemic brought to an end and alongside that, support for vaccinations.

Beyond this, there are warning signals for the Conservatives, in terms of the relative strength of the People’s Party in Alberta, a loss of positive feeling towards Mr. O’Toole, the broad desire to employ vaccines to end the pandemic, plus the fact that Conservative voters stand apart from the rest of the country somewhat on the issue of climate change, something Mr. O’Toole knows spells a challenge among those who the Conservatives need to win support from if they are to form a government at some point.

For the Liberals, the numbers reveal no exuberance at the election outcome, no honeymoon bounce, but pretty good alignment in terms of the support among progressive voters for the agenda the Liberals campaigned on. It’s reasonable to conclude that most voters want to set the politics aside and proceed with the agenda.”

According to David Coletto: “As the new Liberal government is sworn in, the public holds fairly mixed views on the state of the country and where it’s headed. The continuing pandemic, concerns about rising prices and the cost of living, and anxiety about the healthcare system have all three issues high up on the public’s priority list for the new parliament.

In terms of politics, the Conservatives find themselves in a weakened position since the federal election last month. Conservative vote share is down 4 and Mr. O’Toole’s positives are down 5.

For the Liberals, not much has changed since the election. The government’s approval rating remains mixed, and Mr. Trudeau’s personal image has held steady. So far, we don’t see evidence of a post-election honeymoon bounce for the Liberals.”

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 2,200 Canadian adults from October 15 to 20, 2021. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.9%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian Small Businesses Embraced Connected Technology During the Pandemic and Most Say a Fast and Reliable Internet Connection Is Essential for Their Business Going Forward

For video interviews by Skype or Zoom or audio interviews, please contact David at 613-884-4730 or david@abacusdata.ca

The pandemic was deeply disruptive for small and medium-sized businesses across Canada. More than half had to shut down their workplace and many had to adapt to a remote workforce. According to our recent survey conducted for Shaw Business – a leading telecommunications provider to businesses in Canada – owners and leaders of small and medium-sized businesses believe that connected technology played and will continue to play a vital role in their business success.

SMEs in Canada have had to shift course during the pandemic. They needed to adapt to new internal team dynamics – especially with remote work becoming the norm – and to new ways of connecting with their customers.

Almost half (45%) of SME business owners/executives told us they implemented new connected technology tools during the pandemic. The implementation of new connected technology tools was more frequent among larger SMEs (56% for those with 20 or more employees) and was more likely to be embraced by younger business owners/executives.

While some businesses were able to avoid adding new tools because they were already in place, 22% of businesses did implement new technology and expect to update their investment again within the next 12 months. Only one-third of businesses did not implement new tools.

SMEs told us that the technology they used over the last 19 months is critical to their success going forward. This is particularly true for retail & hospitality (88%) as well as manufacturing, construction, and resource industries (85%). Business leaders who are younger, 18 to 34 years, are more likely to agree that their investments in new connected technology tools were positive.

Businesses that have implemented new connected technology tools are even more positive about the results of their investment. In fact, 91% of those that implemented new tools say that the technology they have used over the past 17 months will be critical to their success going forward.

In fact, SMEs clearly embrace the role that technology is playing in their business both in terms of getting through the pandemic but also for their future success.

When it comes to getting through the pandemic, 72% agree that being connected and using technology has helped their business adapt to the pandemic. Larger (more than 10 employees) and younger business owners/executives (under 30 years of age) are particularly likely to agree.

But the future is equally important:  73% agree that being connected and using technology is critical for success moving forward. Again, we find that younger owners/executives are more likely to see technology as critical to success. The retail and hospitality sectors are the most likely to embrace technology.

The backbone to connected technology tools is the internet, and SMEs in Canada clearly place a premium on a fast and reliable internet connection. Three-quarters of owners/executives of SMEs say a fast and reliable internet connection is fundamental to the success of their business. Those owners/executives in the retail/hospitality sector are the most likely to view their internet connection as fundamental to their success.

UPSHOT

SMEs have, partly out of necessity, had to adapt their business to the realities of the pandemic that has stretched out over 18 months and counting. Many have invested in new connected technology tools to address the changing needs of their employees and customers. Those that did invest in connected technology feel it made their businesses stronger and more competitive.

While the pandemic forced businesses to react and some to accelerate plans to digitize their business, others changed direction completely, recognizing how connected technology could help them manage through the pandemic but also refocus their business, improve productivity, and better serve their customers. These shifts in business practices will only intensify further as a younger generation of business leaders start new businesses, transition into leadership roles, and embrace connected technology in all aspects of their businesses.

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 500 SME Canadian business owners/execs from September 2nd to 6th, 2021. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 4.38%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s SME population. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

The survey was paid for by Shaw Business.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice for our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian Federal Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

The local traveller will be around for one more season, at least.

Three months ago in July, optimism about travel was building. Back then, we were full of optimism about a lot of things. Vaccinations becoming more commonplace, cases seeing a dip in the summer heat, and a growing sense of hope and optimism that we may not have to endure another COVID fall and winter most likely played a role.

However, as we officially entered fall a few weeks ago, we’ve been seeing a rise in cases in certain areas of the country, and the sense of normalcy we expected to feel this fall has yet to arrive. Just this week the US announced it will soon be opening the land border from Canada, but does this mean we are ready to line up at the border crossing in a few weeks?

To understand how our travel habits, in particular, are shifting we revisited some questions about travel to see how Canadians are feeling today.

The pandemic is still impacting how we think about travel and has had an increased impact on our ambition to travel as well. Back in the summer, only 19% believed travel that felt exclusive of a pandemic was possible. Three months later, this has dropped 4 pts, not increased, to 15%.

Instead, there has been an increase (of 9 pts!) among those who say travel still feels like it’s happening in a pandemic, and they aren’t interested in that kind of experience. This is likely a combination of many things- not being free from as many COVID rules and restrictions as we would have liked by this time, another wave of cases that we experienced, and perhaps a reckoning that easing back into a sense of normalcy is not happening at the pace we expected.

Regardless of why Canadians are feeling more hesitant, it’s having an impact on our predictions for which travel destinations will feel normal, and when.

Canadians are now expecting a return to normal travel in early 2022, rather than later this year. Regardless of the destination, Canadians are now more likely to predict a return to normal travel no sooner than Winter 2021 and are uncertain about travel out of their own province in particular.

It is still important to note local travel has taken a hit as well. When it comes to travel within one’s own region, 40% expect a return to normal travel by the end of Fall 2021, down 23 points from the predictions back in July (when 63% expected a return to normal by this time).

The on-the-ground COVID-19 situation in each province does seem to impact the predictions regarding our return to normal. For example, in Alberta, only 20% say it already feels normal to travel in their own region of the province- this has regressed from the 39% who said it felt normal back in July.

While optimism about intra-provincial travel has declined, even fewer are optimistic about a return to travel beyond their province’s borders. What has remained consistent is, the closer the destination, the earlier a return to normal is predicted.

Only 16% say travel to another province will feel normal by the end of this season, down from 46% in July who predicted interprovincial travel would be back to normal by the end of fall.

Optimism about travel to the US, saw a particularly large dip, especially when it comes to uncertainty. Now, 43% are unwilling to put a date on when travel to the US will feel normal once again, down from 36% this summer. Opening the land border may have an impact, but if opening the airspace is any indication, it will be more than an open border that is required for Canadians to feel comfortable.

Optimism about international travel also took a dip. Now, nearly half of Canadians are uncertain about when international travel will feel ‘back to normal’.

While travel may feel uncomfortable and uncertain, there is still some good news for the tourism industry, especially those hosting intra-provincial travellers. Canadians are slowly getting back into travel, especially within their own province.

Since the pandemic started, 45% have taken a trip out of town, within their region, up 9 points since this summer. Travel to another region of one’s province is up 12 points, to 33%.

Travel to another province saw a smaller, but notable climb to 14%- though it is still much less common, (and still more uncertain) than travel within one’s own province. And when it comes to travel outside the country, very few have journeyed to the US or beyond.

THE UPSHOT According to Oksana Kishchuk: Since July, the tourism landscape has changed in a few notable ways. Back in July many of us had the mindset that with vaccination rates moving like they were, we’d be on our way back to normal in Canada in just a few months. But now that those few months have passed, things aren’t exactly on track.

We are still experiencing waves of COVID cases in Canada, especially in certain parts of the country. Rules and regulations regarding COVID are more or less still here, and in some provinces, they have even been re-instated. Borders may be open, but the extra logistics, precautions, and worries of the virus aren’t completely gone.

But perhaps most importantly, is how we are feeling about the state of things today. It seems like leaving a pandemic mindset behind is more about easing back into ‘normal life’ rather than jumping right back in. This means far more people choosing to dip their toes into local destinations to build their comfort with travel, before branching out further.

Public health messaging around cases, social distancing and masking rules means getting into a post-pandemic mindset is hard, and something that is hard to wrap our minds around just yet. For many, local travel seems like a great way to test the waters.

For more insights on tourism and COVID-19, please reach out to Oksana, Director of Strategy & Insights at: oksana@abacusdata.ca

METHODOLOGY

This survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from October 1st to 4th 2021. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20.

The survey was conducted using a random sample of panelists invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The data was weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. This poll was conducted and paid for by Abacus Data.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice for our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Are Your Kids Vaxxed? Vaccine Hesitancy Among Parents in Canada

Vaccinating a large majority of Canadian adults against COVID-19 has been no small task. And vaccinating children in Canada will be no different. Just last weekend one hurdle was eliminated when Health Canada confirmed Pfizer-BioNTech submitted preliminary data on their study of the vaccine for children 5-12. But another challenge awaits.

We’ve been tracking vaccine hesitancy among Canadian adults for quite some time, and our latest data continues to show what we’ve been seeing for the past few months. A very, very slow decline in the hesitant (now at 6%), and refusers (now at 7%), and an acceptance rate hovering somewhere just under 90% (now at 87%).

How do parents feel about vaccinating their children, and not themselves?

Among parents with children aged 12-17 (who already have the vaccine available for their children), acceptance of having their kids vaccinated is at 79% (though note the small base size of n=157). The hesitant/undecided sit at 15% and those in the refusal group at 6%.

The percentage of Canadians already/willing to be vaccinated themselves is higher than the percentage of parents (of children aged 12-17) who already have, or are willing to, vaccinate their children. That said, parents of those 12 and under are the most hesitant.

For these parents (who have a larger sample size of n=285) acceptance rates are closer to two thirds (68%). 15% are hesitant or undecided, and 17% fall in the refusers category.

Sample size limitations withstanding, these numbers are notably lower than vaccine acceptance among adults inoculating themselves, a far cry from the 87% among Canadians adults who are vaccinated/will be taking their first/second shot ASAP.

But context is important. For parents of those under 12, the process for approval and then appointment booking is in early stages. Flashback to when Canadian adults were in that same position, and acceptance rates are looking pretty similar between adults and parents of those under 12, if not better, for parents.

For example, in November of last year, when the conversations of vaccine approvals for adults were top of mind, only 33% of adults were already vaccinated/willing to take ASAP. Compared to the 46% of parents who are willing to do so for their children under 12 today, at a similar point in the process.

UPSHOT According to Oksana Kishchuk: On one hand, you could say that we have a long way to go by increasing acceptance among parents for vaccinating their children under 12.

But on the other, it seems like the high vaccination rates among adults and public health efforts aimed at increased vaccine acceptability are paying off, and moving parents closer to acceptance, even earlier than us adults last Winter.

Vaccinating 5–12-year-olds will be the next big task in increasing the vaccination rate in Canada. We are still in early stages, but our data shows that we are on the right track with acceptability. We will continue to monitor this sentiment among parents, to see how it tracks against Canadian adults, and how it will impact vaccination rates in Canada overall.

METHODOLOGY

This survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from October 1st to 4th 2021. The sample of parents of children 12-17 was n=157. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 7.8%, 19 times out of 20. The sample of parents of children under 12 was n=285. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 5.8%, 19 times out of 20.

The survey was conducted using a random sample of panelists invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The data was weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice for our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Abacus Data Team Members Receive Promotions as Leading Research Firm Grows

A Message from Chief Executive, David Coletto

When we started Abacus Data in 2010, I wanted to create a research and insights firm that is known for its curiosity, thoughtfulness, and attention to detail. Over the past 11 years, I think we have delivered on that vision.

Ask our clients and they will tell you they count on us to deliver timely and valuable research and insights with a hospitality-inspired approach to client service.

And we’ve been able to do all this thanks to the tireless work of a growing team of research, marketing, and sales professionals.

I am thrilled to announce several well-deserved promotions for team members who have continued to exceed expectations and orient us for future success.

Ihor Korbabicz has been promoted to the role of Executive Vice President where he will continue to lead day-to-day coordination of research, lead the consulting team, and inform and advise the CEO on strategy. He has had tremendous success in cultivating new business with financial service providers, including emerging sectors like crypto-currency, while leading projects with some of Canada’s leading private and public sector organizations.

Yvonne Langen is now the Vice President, Sales & Marketing and will continue to generate new leads, steward client relationships, and guide our marketing strategy. Despite the significant challenges presented by the pandemic, Yvonne has been instrumental in our company’s continued growth in revenue which reached an all-time high in 2021, growing by 20% over the previous year.

Oksana Kishchuk joins the executive team as Director, Strategy & Insights. Now in her fourth year working at Abacus Data, Oksana has taken on increased responsibility in all facets of our work including managing accounts, providing direction for the consulting team, driving new business, and raising brand awareness through regular appearances in major media outlets including The Toronto Star, CTV News, Global News, and more.

Our longest serving team member, Jonathan Nadeau, has been promoted to the role of Director, Field & Analysis. Jon recently celebrated his 10th anniversary working with Abacus and I am delighted to have him join the executive team. Jon will manage our research production team and lead our innovation efforts to continuously improve the quality of data we collected at a cost-effective rate for our clients.

Lastly, Megan Ross has been promoted to the role of Consultant where she will take on more responsibility in project management. Megan has demonstrated considerable professional growth during her time on our team and brings a conscientious and curious mindset to everything she does.

I’m proud of the team we have built at Abacus Data. These changes will allow us to grow while continuing to deliver outstanding work and service to our current and future clients.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Tired of hyper confident predictions? Here’s something different.

In case you feel you’ve had enough supremely confident predictions about what will happen in today’s election, rest easy, this won’t add to that total.

Who turns out to vote in this unusual circumstance is not complete guesswork – our data and that of other firms are somewhat helpful, but there’s enough softness in that science to make it uncertain which party will be in the best position to form a government when the counting is done.

So, without knowing how it will all net out, for what it’s worth, here are the things which have captured my attention in this election.

After a number of years in government, any group of incumbents tends to produce messages that are self-congratulatory, windy, and laden with 50 cent words. The Liberals have been no exception in this area, and some of the language they have used in recent years to promote their ideas has done more to push voters away than drawing them in. Whether they win or lose, this election should be a reminder to talk like people talk, not talk at people. And never boast. Canadians will pick humility over boastfulness, every time, our motto is “sorry” after all. Once the Liberals became immersed in the idea that they were going to have to fight to win this election, Liberal communications had more clarity and bite.

It seemed to me that Erin O’Toole traded in his image as a moderate conservative for a True Blue positioning to win the leadership, and then tried to reverse the trade in the election. Whether it worked will for some just be a question of whether he wins the election, but to my eyes, the Conservative Party today, even if it wins, will be an increasingly uncomfortable and fragile alliance of people whose values on diversity and inclusion, guns, right to life/choose, and the environment at a minimum are not aligned.

(Because I think only a moderate conservative party can win government in Canada, and because I prefer to have more than one choice I could vote for personally, I’m biased in that I want a Conservative Party that plays it closer to the centre of the spectrum, but that fight in the Conservative Party is far from settled, it might in fact be just getting ramped up.)

Different people have different takes on how much the Liberals calling an early election will cost them votes. My take is that it annoyed a lot of people and created some headwind against their messages in the first couple of weeks, but won’t be the thing that denies them a victory if in fact, they lose. Nor do I think it will be a deep dislike of Justin Trudeau. He’s certainly got scar tissue and a quarter of voters really don’t like him, but a quarter is not all that many for a 6-year incumbent and people can win with that level of voter animosity, no question about it. I think we also saw once again that when Justin Trudeau thinks he might lose a race, he finds another gear and he presents his case with different energy, reveals a level of knowledge of the issues that impresses, and is a much better campaigner.

If the Liberals lose it will come down to two factors:

First, their positioning and language in recent years left some centre-spectrum voters to feel the party was too far to the left for their tastes, more ideological than pragmatic, and needlessly mistrustful of business (the first major self-injury of this sort was the small business tax changes in the first Trudeau term).

Second, some progressive voters want more action more quickly and with fewer caveats on the issues that matter to them, such as income inequality, climate change, diversity and indigenous relations. The “Goldilocks” positioning in Canadian politics – not too much of this or that – is often a reliably winning formula but whether the Liberals wandered away from it, or whether in the era of social media platforms it no longer works – or both – is a question that will become clearer over time.

If the Liberals win, it will be because of two factors as well:

One, Erin O’Toole has run a campaign that seemed to put little effort into rallying different factions in his party who might have aligned with other leadership candidates, or perspectives. People like Peter Mackay, Lisa Raitt, Michael Chong, Rona Ambrose, James Moore. His front bench was invisible. He was neither fish nor fowl on vaccination – sure they were a good idea but unwilling to commit to having a caucus that was vaccinated. His fiscal plan looked so much like the Liberals that fiscal conservatives were probably rubbing their temples in frustration. He ceded a lot of opportunity to Max Bernier. For Bernier, it was probably a gift that he was left out of the debates because his party just started to look like a legitimate option fronted by purple lawn signs and less like a personal vendetta and a bunch of off-putting ideas. If the Liberals win, one significant factor will be the drain of votes from the Conservatives to the Peoples Party.

The other will be the size of the NDP vote. Jagmeet Singh is relatively popular and managed to get through the campaign without a great deal of stress testing. Some of his promises are unworkable from a jurisdictional standpoint, and his climate plan was found wanting by a large number of subject experts. His support level has been fairly steady, even if persistently soft in nature: NDP voters mostly don’t want a Conservative government and whether they vote Orange or Red will have a major effect on tonight’s outcome in my view.

As a final note, I’m lucky and happy to live in a democracy where we have choices, and where voters decide, and I’m interested in the nature of their decision. To be in this profession for almost 40 years is to be interested in the politics of our country, not only the science of measuring public opinion, at least for me. I try to provide a fair analysis of data and also express my opinion about events, and hope that people appreciate the value in the former, and understand the inevitability of the latter.

Click here to see Abacus Data’s final poll results of the 2021 campaign

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.