Following the English language network debate, we polled Canadians on their reactions. Here’s what we found:

13% WATCHED THE ENTIRE DEBATE

The vast majority (87%) didn’t watch the whole debate.  Just under half (47%) watched all (13%) of some (29%) of it.  Another 23% said they heard something about it from others, and 25% heard nothing about it.

REACTION TO THE LEADERS

In terms of the impressions left on those who watched the debate or heard about it from others, Mr. Trudeau recorded 36% positive and 37% negative opinion.  For Andrew Scheer, the results were similar with 36% positive and 38% negative.

Jagmeet Singh left positive impressions among 59% and negative impressions among 11%.

Elizabeth May left positive impressions with 39% and negative impressions with 16%.

Yves-Francois Blanchet left 21% positive and 29% negative feelings.  Maxime Bernier positively impressed 14% but alienated far more, at 42%.

Bernier turned off the most (42%) with the fewest (14%) saying he left a positive impression.

WHO DID MORE TO WIN YOUR VOTE?

Jagmeet Singh found 29% saying he did the most to win their vote followed by Justin Trudeau (23%) and Andrew Scheer (23%). Elizabeth May trailed at 7%, and the other two leaders combined for 7%.

WHO DID MORE TO TURN YOU AWAY?

Andrew Scheer did more than the others to turn people off (35%) followed by Justin Trudeau (30%), Elizabeth May (6%), Jagmeet Singh (6%). Other leaders (Blanchet/Bernier) combined for 10%.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “With five challengers, any incumbent faces headwinds in a debate of this sort and so the results for Mr. Trudeau suggest he held his ground.  For Andrew Scheer, the results were better than in his last outing, but it’s likely that his opening attack on Mr. Trudeau may have pleased his base but turned off accessible voters. For Jagmeet Singh, the debate could turn out to be a meaningful turning point for the NDP campaign, but time will tell if the impact is more on his personal reputation or on the course of the campaign overall. “

According to David Coletto: “Jagmeet Singh won the debate on Monday. Almost six in ten Canadians who watched or heard of it said he left them with a positive impression of them, 20-points more than any other leader. More important, among accessible NDP voters – those not intending to vote NDP but saying they would consider it – 32% thought he did most to earn his vote, slightly ahead of Trudeau.

It remains to be seen whether his performance will translate into more votes, but the NDP leader has some momentum now, and Canadians are increasingly warming to him.

Mr. Scheer, the debate was likely a draw in terms of its net impact. Mr. Scheer did little to impress potential Conservative supporters. Few thought he did the most to win their vote. Those already intending to vote Conservative approved of his performance and that was likely to point: motivate Conservative voters and while trying to divide more progressive voters away from the Liberals.

For Mr. Trudeau, the results suggest he largely held his own with almost all his current supporters thinking he did a good job and few potential supporters saying he did the most to turn them off. Most important, more potential Liberal supporters felt good about his performance than bad, suggesting he did what he needed to do: withstand the attacks, reassure his supporters, and contrast with Mr. Scheer among those both the Conservatives and Liberals are trying to persuade.”

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 2,347 Canadians aged 18 and over from October 8 to 10, 2019. A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.0%, 19 times out of 20.  The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

The sample of those who watched or heard about the English language debate is 1,535.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

A strong majority of Canadians believe the transition to clean energy is more economic opportunity that economic downside.

Last week Clean Energy Canada issued a new report, The Fast Lane, which indicated that the country’s clean energy sector would add significantly more jobs than are expected to be lost in fossil fuels. New Abacus Data-Clean Energy Canada polling reveals that most Canadians see this potential too:

Across the country, 73% say they prefer to see Canada supporting the growth of our renewable energy and clean technology sectors, while 27% prefer to see Canada put more emphasis on extracting the most value possible from our fossil fuels. In Alberta, public opinion is about evenly split on this question, with 47% wanting more emphasis on cleantech and renewables.

73% say “success in developing and using clean energy technologies can create as many new jobs as those which would be lost in oil and gas” while 27% say “the global shift towards clean energy is going to end up doing serious damage to the Canadian economy no matter what we do.” A majority in every region, including Alberta (59%) believes there need not be an economic downside.

71% say “if we are thoughtful in planning a transition from fossil fuels Canada economy can be even more successful in the future,”, including 59% in Alberta, while 29% hold that “no matter how hard we try, Canada’s economy will suffer in the future if demand for oil and gas is replaced by other forms of energy.”

86% believe “Canada has the potential to be among the world’s most successful countries in developing and using clean energy technologies.”

86% believe “the pace of innovation in clean energy and technologies is quick, and Canada must be amongst the leaders in this energy transition.”

68% think “around the world momentum is with those who want action to combat climate change,” while only 32% think momentum is with those “who want to do little or nothing about it.” When it comes to the momentum in Canada, 71% say it is with those who want climate action.

QUOTES

“Canadians are broadly concerned about climate change and sense that momentum in favour of climate action growing around the world, and here in Canada. Most people believe there is upside for Canada in pursuing an energy transition, not only in terms of combating climate change but also in terms of economic risk and opportunity.  A very large majority are convinced that the clean energy and technology market is a massive opportunity for Canada and one that must be embraced.”

Bruce Anderson, Chairman, Abacus Data

“What these results show is that Canadians believe there’s a strong future for our clean energy sector. The good news is that we’re well-positioned to capitalize on this opportunity, with a clean energy sector already employing 300,000 Canadians in jobs across the country. Our latest research shows this number will increase to over half-a-million over the next decade if we continue with current climate policies. Going backward wouldn’t just worsen climate change, it would threaten a significant sector that Canadians are counting on to create opportunity as the world transitions from fossil fuels.”

Dan Woynillowicz, Policy Director, Clean Energy Canada

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted online using a random sample of 1,929 panelists invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.23%, 19 times out of 20.  The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

CONTACT

Keri McNamara
Communications Specialist
778-951-8060

Bruce Anderson
Chairman
Abacus Data
613-882-0929

Our latest nationwide survey measured the federal election trends.

Here’s what we found:

LIBERALS HAVE SLIGHT EDGE – TWO WAVES IN A ROW.

If an election were held at the time of the survey, the Liberals (35%) would capture slightly more support than the Conservatives (33%), followed by the NDP at 16%, the Greens at 8%, and the BQ at 5% (19% in Quebec). Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party registers just 1% support nationally.

The regional races tell a clearer story of where the race stands. In Alberta and Saskatchewan, the Conservative Party has a 37-point lead, an advantage which has widened from 30 points in August. In the rest of the country, the Liberals have consistently led the Conservatives this year, and since August, a 5-point advantage has widened to 9 points.

In BC, we see a 5-point lead for the Liberals, in Ontario, a closer 2-point race. The Liberals have a 27-point lead in Atlantic Canada and a 21-point lead in Quebec.

There are signs that the Liberals are seeing support rise among women, and also indications that support for the Green Party is waning.

Conservatives continue to have a massive lead among voters who self identify as right of centre, including a 49-point lead among “centre-right” voters. Among centre-left voters, the Liberals have a 33-point lead over the NDP, 3 points more than a few weeks ago.

Perhaps the most encouraging sign for the Liberals is this: among the roughly half (49%) of voters who identify as being in the centre of the political spectrum, the Liberals now lead the Conservatives by 6 (35% to 29%) with the NDP in third at 16%.

LEADER POPULARITY: SCHEER NEGATIVES UP AGAIN; SINGH WITH BEST NET FAVOURABLES

Mr. Trudeau has 35% positive and 47% negative opinion across the country. Those numbers suggest his positives have regained 4 points from the drop after the blackface story emerged.

Andrew Scheer has 33% positive and 44% negative opinion nationally. This represents a further growth of negative opinion towards the Conservative leader.

Jagmeet Singh is 32% positive and 25% negative, relatively steady from our last wave. Mr. Singh now has the most positive net impression of all the federal leaders at +7.

Elizabeth May has 26% positive and 22% negative opinion. These numbers are weaker than we had been seeing for the Green Party leader earlier in the year.

IN A HEAD-TO-HEAD, MORE PREFER A LIBERAL GOVERNMENT OVER CONSERVATIVE ONE, ESPECIALLY AMONG ACCESSIBLE NDP AND GREEN VOTERS.

To assess what might happen if voters consolidate around the Liberals or Conservatives as election day nears, we asked respondents whether they would prefer to see a Liberal or Conservative government. Overall, 54% would prefer the Liberals to 46% for the Conservatives.

Among NDP, BQ, and Green supporters, 60% or more would prefer a Trudeau government to a Scheer one.

MORE HAVE MADE UP THEIR MIND

As of Saturday, 69% of respondents say they have made up their mind about how they are going to vote in the election, up 6-points from a few weeks ago. 31% say they haven’t yet made up their minds.

Those aged 60 and over are the most likely to say they have made up with mind (77%), while those under 30 are the least likely (64%). Women are also less likely to have firmed up their vote choice than men (66% vs. 73%).

18% of Canadians are following the campaign very closely, unchanged from September 23. There’s been a 4-point increase in those following the campaign pretty closely (to 40%), while 43% say they are following the campaign a little bit or not at all.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “Since our last wave, another 6% of voters say they have made up their mind about how they are going to vote, bringing the total who say their mind is made up to 69%. The recent movement has tended to be more beneficial for the Liberals outside Alberta and beneficial for the Conservatives in Alberta – underscoring a polarized debate around climate, carbon and related issues.

The movement for the Green Party may signal a critical moment for Elizabeth May in Monday’s debate – her party has struggled when issues other than climate are in focus, and many climate concerned voters are concerned with avoiding a Conservative victory.

The Conservative campaign is not making gains outside its base level of support. Part of this seems to be a reflection of how people are reacting to Andrew Scheer, but it also seems that the Conservatives have tended to stay close to the policy positions favoured by the base, rather than try to reach out to hesitant urban, female and younger voters. If anything those voters may have found reasons for their hesitancy to be reinforced by the Conservative campaign so far.

For Mr. Trudeau and the Liberals, positive interest in the BQ and Jagmeet Singh are signals that they must concentrate not only on highlighting differences with the Conservatives.”

According to David Coletto: “With two weeks to go the race remains close, and we continue to see little movement in vote intentions. But beneath the surface, we see some shifts that might ultimately lead to some changes in how people vote.

Impressions of Mr. Trudeau seem to have rebounded a little from the impact of the blackface photos. Mr. Scheer’s negatives continue to rise as the campaign progresses. His negatives are now only 3-points lower than Mr. Trudeau, a gap that stood at 7-points when the campaign began.

Mr. Singh’s numbers have improved markedly throughout the campaign. Today, 1 in 3 have a positive impression of the NDP leader, a 7-point increase from a few weeks ago and the highest we have ever captured for Mr. Singh in our tracking.

It’s a cliché to say that today’s debate could be decisive for the campaign. But given that 30% of the electorate is still up for grabs, the race is so close, and many haven’t yet tuned in, it’s hard not to feel that it will matter.”

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 1,556 Canadians aged 18 and over from October 3 to 5, 2019. A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

In our latest nationwide survey, we asked francophone respondents in Quebec some questions about the leaders’ debate held in French last week.

Here’s what we found (based on 373 interviews with francophone respondents in Quebec):

A SIZEABLE AUDIENCE FOR THIS DEBATE

14% said they watched the whole debate, 27% some of it, and another 37% heard about it from other people.

THREE LEADERS IMPRESSED. ONE DID NOT.

A majority of respondents felt the leaders of the Liberal (56%), BQ (55%) and New Democratic (53%) parties made a positive impression during the course of the debate.  Few felt that Blanchet (14%), Singh (15%), or Trudeau (20%) left negative impressions.   In contrast, 21% felt Andrew Scheer made a positive impression and 55% said he left a negative impression.

WHO DID MOST TO WIN YOUR VOTE?

Asked which one leader did the most to win their votes, we found a tie between Justin Trudeau (30%) and Yves-Francois Blanchet (30%) followed by Jagmeet Singh (14%) and Andrew Scheer last at 10%.

WHO DID MOST TO TURN YOU OFF?

Asked which one leader did the most to turn them away, Andrew Scheer led (36%) followed by Justin Trudeau (26%), Yves-Francois Blanchet (13%), and Jagmeet Singh (8%).

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “Heading into Monday’s debate, all leaders have a lot at stake.  The public is beginning to focus on the campaign and the results from the Quebec debate will raise the pressure on Conservative leader Andrew Scheer to rebound from a performance that probably set his party back in Quebec.

For Mr. Trudeau, the stakes remain very high, as his party is locked into a tight battle with the Conservatives in many parts of the country – a good performance can add some momentum at a crucial moment in the campaign.

But the stage on Monday will be more crowded, with two additional leaders (Elizabeth May and Maxime Bernier) vying for a share of voice in this campaign. How those dynamics unfold is impossible to predict, but likely to be material.  Ms. May will be looking to help reignite sagging Green Party support, and this may be the only chance for Maxime Bernier to pitch Conservative voters to mark a ballot for him and not Andrew Scheer.  Mr. Scheer will need to find a way to be back on the offensive, after several days where the focus was on him, and was largely unflattering.  “

According to David Coletto: “Based on people’s reaction to the debate, Andrew Scheer did not have a good night. Mr. Blanchet and Mr. Trudeau can split the spoils of victory. Mr. Singh performed well and francophones responded favourably to what they saw, but it may not be enough to boost NDP fortunes in Quebec.”

How do we know what issues might be key in an election? An explainer with my friends from @CPAC_TV #elxn43 pic.twitter.com/QxkhqTHTEx

— David Coletto (@Colettod) October 5, 2019

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 373 francophone Canadians aged 18 and over from October 3 to 5, 2019. A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 5.0%, 19 times out of 20.  The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

By Bruce Anderson & David Coletto

We’ve completed another election survey this week. Here’s a snapshot of what we are seeing:

1. The national race remains tight, but the Liberals are 3-points better positioned than last week, with 35% support, while the Conservatives have dropped a point to 33% (that shift is within the margin of error). The NDP at 15% (unchanged) and the Green Party 10% (unchanged).

2. Regionally, the Liberals have a 16-point lead in Atlantic Canada, a 17-point lead in Quebec, a 7-point lead in Ontario, and trail by wide margins in the Prairies. In BC, the Liberals have opened up a 7-point lead with 33% support followed by the Conservatives at 26% and the NDP at 25%, the Greens further back at 12%. In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois is polling at 20%, 2-points back of the Conservatives at 22%.

3. The Liberals lead among those aged 18 to 29 (by 18 over the Conservatives) and by 7 among those aged 30 to 44. The Liberals and Conservatives are tied among those aged 45 to 59 while the Conservatives lead by 11 among those aged 60 and over. Over the past week, the Liberal vote share among younger voters has surged to 42%, a 9-point increase.

4. In the past, educational attainment was a key driver in vote intentions, but our latest survey finds less division. The Liberals and Conservatives are tied among those with high school or less and among those with college education. Among those with a university degree, the Liberals lead by 10 points. In the past, the Conservatives could count on more support among those with high school or less. That gap appears to have closed over the past few weeks.

5. Justin Trudeau’s personal ratings have recovered a bit. His positives are up 3-points to 34%, and his negatives are down 2 to 47% for an overall net -13 image score. Mr. Trudeau’s net favourability is -11 in BC, -13 in Ontario, +1 in Quebec. He is -13 among women and +5 among voters under 30.

6. Andrew Scheer saw his numbers go in the opposite direction this week. His positives dropped a point to 31%, and his negatives are up 3-points to 42% for an overall image score of -11. His approval rating is -12 in BC, -15 in Ontario and -15 in Quebec. It is -20 with under 30 voters and -18 among women.

7. Jagmeet Singh had a better week this week, with his positives rising 6-points to 31% and his negatives dropping 4-points to 24% for a +7 overall. He is +10 in BC, +9 in Ontario, +9 in Quebec, +12 among women and +31 among voters under 30.

8. Elizabeth May had a slightly improved week with her positives up 2 and her negatives down 2 for an overall net image score of +9. She is +12 in BC, +10 in Ontario, +9 in Quebec, and +21 in Atlantic Canada.

9. Maxime Bernier is underwater everywhere at -32 nationally, -29 in BC, -29 in Ontario, -38 in Quebec, and – 4 among self-described right of centre voters. He is -21 among centre-right voters.

10. Interest in the campaign is largely unchanged from the start of the campaign. In our survey completed before the campaign started, 55% reported high interest in the campaign, the same as today.

11. The Liberals now have the largest pool of accessible voters, up 3 points over the past week to 52%. The Conservatives have 46%, followed by the NDP at 44%. 40% of people would consider voting Green. In Quebec, 36% say they are open to voting for the BQ, unchanged from last week when it was 35%.

12. Asked if it came down to a choice between Mr. Trudeau and Mr. Scheer as Prime Minister, 54% would prefer Mr. Trudeau while 46% would prefer Mr. Scheer. Among younger voters under 30, the split is 65% Trudeau to 35% Scheer. Among women, Trudeau leads Scheer by 14-points while Trudeau has a 1-point lead among men. Regionally, Trudeau leads in BC (+14), Ontario (+8), Quebec (+20), and Atlantic Canada (+28) while Mr. Scheer leads in Alberta (+26) and SK/MB (+8).

13. When we look at attention to the blackface photo story, 65% (54% last week) said they heard a lot about the blackface story, another 29% have heard some. 6% had not heard of it at all, down 6 from Sunday.

14. Asked how they reacted to the story, 42% (42% last week) said it didn’t really bother them, 38% (34% last week) said they didn’t like it but felt Mr. Trudeau apologized properly and felt they could move on, and 20% (24% last week) said it truly offended them and their view of Mr. Trudeau changed for the worse.

15. Among those aware of the photos, asked how this might affect their vote on Election Day, 39% (40% last week) said they were not planning to vote Liberal anyway, 52 % (48% last week) said it would not affect their vote and that they would decide on other issues. 10% said it was negatively affecting their inclination to support the Liberals (12% last week).

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “The race is far too close for either of the leading parties to feel confident of a victory, but if the last week seemed like it doomed the Liberals’ hopes of a second mandate, these numbers say the Liberal Party is, if anything, more competitive than it was. This may have to do with the fact that the large majority saw Mr. Trudeau as having made a foolish mistake, and owning his apology in a forthright and unqualified way – something voters appreciate and seldom see.

It is notable that despite circumstances that might have worked to his advantage (dramatic trouble faced by the Liberal leader, strong Conservative financial and organizational resources and without the burden of accountability that comes with being in government) Andrew Scheer does not seem to be winning a lot of hearts and minds to this point in time.

It may be that fiscal conservatives are wondering about whether his platform feels as fiscally cautious as they expected, centrists may be disappointed in his climate change position, or worried about Ford-style cuts, and progressive voters may feel doubtful of his personal commitment to equal rights for women and same-sex couples. We may explore in more detail some of the hypotheses for the fact that the Conservative have not capitalized on the opportunities, in an upcoming release.”

According to David Coletto: “For the first time since May 2019, we have the Liberals numerically ahead of the Conservatives nationally in our horserace numbers. Built on growing support among younger Canadians and Ontarians, the Liberals are in a much stronger position today than even a few days ago.

But it’s also worth remembering that while the campaign has been on for two weeks, interest in the campaign hasn’t moved and many people are still saying they could change their mind about their party preference.”

By the way, Abacus Data is growing and looking for an analyst to be based in Ottawa. Find out more here.

pic.twitter.com/h8RDjXeYMh

— David Coletto (@Colettod) September 22, 2019

DATA GRAPHICS

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 1,975 Canadians aged 18 and over from September 23 to 26, 2019. A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20.  The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

87% would allow their child to march.

In the wake of several recent marches for climate action and with mass marches approaching on Friday (September 27), including one in Montreal with climate activist Greta Thunberg, the latest Abacus Data-Clean Energy Canada poll reveals:

• Across the country, 74% say that marches of students in different parts of the world calling for more action on climate change are a good idea. Women (78%), parents (79%) and those under 30 (82%) are especially likely to feel this way. It bears noting that a healthy majority of people over age 60 (68%) also support these marches.

• A narrow majority of voters on the right of the spectrum (55%) express support for the marches, while 76% of voters on the centre and 85% of voters on the left feel they are a good idea.
• Belief in the value of these marches is the majority view in every region of the country as well, including Alberta (63%).
• Asked if they were or are a parent how they would feel about their child participating in such a march, 87% say they would support their child marching, including 48% who say they would do so happily, and 39% with some hesitation. Just 13% would refuse to let their children march, including 20% in Alberta and 24% of voters on the right.

• One in five people (20%) say the student marches make them a lot more inclined to support climate action, and another 54% say “quite a bit” or “somewhat” more likely to support climate action. Another 14% say they already fully support climate action.  Just 12% say the marches have the opposite effect on their opinion, including 28% of voters on the right of the spectrum.

QUOTES

“Greta Thunberg has helped create a new and compelling form of advocacy on the climate issue by drawing sharp attention to intergenerational responsibility. A sense of moral obligation is felt by a very broad majority of Canadians, and many people feel more compelled to support urgent climate action because of the power of this youth movement.”

—Bruce Anderson, Chairman, Abacus Data

“It’s our kids who will be most impacted by climate change. And they are making it clear today how the leaders of tomorrow will look back on us. Canada has one of the largest carbon footprints of any country in the world. We must now act responsibly considering our direct contribution to climate change, our position of influence on the world stage, and our capacity to develop and deliver clean energy solutions.”

—Dan Woynillowicz, Policy Director, Clean Energy Canada

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted online using a random sample of 1,929 panelists invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.  The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Dan Woynillowicz and Bruce Anderson are available for interviews.

Clean Energy Canada (cleanenergycanada.org) is a climate and energy think tank housed at the Centre for Dialogue at Simon Fraser University. We work to accelerate our nation’s transition to a clean and renewable energy system.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

CONTACT

Keri McNamara
Communications Specialist
778-951-8060

Bruce Anderson
Chairman
Abacus Data
613-882-0929

In the days following the bombshell revelations of photographs of Justin Trudeau in blackface we have been polling Canadians on the election and specifically on their reaction to that development.

Here’s what our data show.

1. The national race remains very tight, with the Conservatives holding 34% support, the Liberals 32%, the NDP at 15%, and the Green Party 11%. Each of these numbers is within a percentage point of the result we found in our last survey, which took place before the election campaign began.

2. Regionally, the Liberals have a wide lead in Atlantic Canada and Quebec, a 4-point lead in Ontario, and trail by wide margins in the Prairie provinces. In BC, the Liberals and Conservatives are tied at 30% with the NDP at 22% and the Greens at 15%.

3. Justin Trudeau’s personal ratings have slipped. His positives are down 4-points, and his negatives are up 3. At the same time, Andrew Scheer, Jagmeet Singh and Elizabeth May have all seen deterioration in their ratings as well. Ms. May’s numbers are the worst we have seen for her since March of this year. Mr.Scheer’s positives have dropped 3-points, and his negatives have hit a new high at 39%.

4. 63% of voters say they have made up their minds how they are going to vote, and 54% say they have been following the campaign very or pretty closely. Just under half say they have been paying only a little or no attention and 37% say they haven’t yet made up their mind about how they will vote.

5. 41% think the Conservatives will win, 40% think the Liberals will. Regionally, most in the Prairies think the Conservatives will win with about one in four thinking the Liberals will win. In BC, 39% think the Liberals will win, 35% Conservative, and 14% NDP. In Ontario, 43% feel the Conservatives will win with 39% predicting a Liberal win. Only 9% in Ontario feel the NDP will win. In Quebec, half think the Liberals will win with 27% saying the Conservatives and 5% NDP.

6. Asked what party they would like to see victorious, 32% say the Conservatives, 30% the Liberals, 16% the NDP and 11% the Green Party.

7. Asked if it came down to a choice between a Liberal and a Conservative government, 53% would prefer a Liberal government, 47% a Conservative government. In BC 58% would prefer the Liberals, in Ontario 55%, in Quebec 56%.

8. 53% said they heard a lot about the blackface story, another 34% have heard some. 13% had not heard of it at all.

9. Asked how they reacted to the story, 42% said it didn’t really bother them, 34% said they didn’t like it but felt Mr. Trudeau apologized properly and felt they could move on, and 24% said they were truly offended and it changed their view of Mr. Trudeau for the worse. Worth noting is that of that 24%, two-thirds are Conservative voters.

10. Among those aware of the photos, asked how this might affect their vote on Election Day, 40% said they were not planning to vote Liberal anyway, 48% said it would not affect their vote and that they would decide on other issues. Of the 12% who said it was affecting their thinking, half said they were considering the Liberals but leaning away from them because of the incident and half said they were considering the Liberals but cannot support them now.

11. That 12% tend to be younger with 71% under the age of 45. 62% voted Liberal in 2015 while 23% voted Conservative. 27% identified as a member of a visible minority or racialized community, 9-points higher than the national average in our sample. 57% of this group would still prefer the Liberals to win compared with 43% who prefer the Conservatives.

12. Those who identify as members of a visible minority community and voters under 30 were both 9 points more likely to say they were bothered by the photographs compared to non-visible minorities and older voters. However, both groups were also 12 points more likely to say that they accepted the apology and could move on. Both groups also more likely than average to say this has caused them to reconsider whether they will support the Liberals, suggesting that the ultimate impact on their voting intention is somewhat uncertain.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “This election may feel to combatants as though it has been going on for a long time, but many Canadians have not yet been following it very closely.  Still, last week Mr. Trudeau’s reputation was damaged, albeit perhaps less than might have been surmised or expected.

Other leaders have not gained at Mr. Trudeau’s expense through this period, and the relative standing of the parties is largely unchanged.

It’s clear that Mr. Trudeau wearing blackface has affected many people, and the impact on their final decision can’t really be predicted. The race is close enough that it could make the difference and cause the Liberals to lose office – but the results also show that Mr. Trudeau’s apology was accepted by many people and that the plurality is inclined to say other issues will have a bigger impact on their choice.

According to David Coletto: “The photos and video released late last week was a shock that changed the focus and conversation of the election campaign. But so far, evidence that they have fundamentally changed people’s impressions or intended voting behaviour is quite limited.

The race remains very close, all the party leaders are viewed less favourably than at the start of the campaign, and most people say that so far, the events of the past few days won’t change their vote. But two key voter groups for the Liberals are more likely to say it might impact their choice.

Perhaps most important, among those who are aware of the story and say it has them reconsidering their support for the Liberals, 57% would prefer the Liberals to win, and 43% would prefer the Conservatives. The campaign has been, to a large degree, about this choice and will continue to be so.

Ultimately, the blackface photos may be the campaign moment that prevents the Liberals from being re-elected. But the initial reaction and how voters are reacting so far suggests there’s way too much campaign left to make that conclusion today.”

By the way, Abacus Data is growing and looking for an analyst to be based in Ottawa. Find out more here.

DATA GRAPHICS

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 1,929 Canadians aged 18 and over from September 18 to 22, 2019. A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20.  The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

In Abacus Data’s last political update, I noted that we should not assume that NDP or Green Party voters will vote strategically for the Liberals if it appears the Conservatives and Andrew Scheer appear likely to win the election.

To explore this idea in more depth, I returned to the dataset to see what else we can learn from our latest survey. Specifically, I used responses to our vote consideration questions to create four distinct voter segments: those who would consider voting Liberal but not Conservative (32% of the electorate), those who would consider voting Conservative, but not Liberal (30% of the electorate), those open to voting for both the Liberals and Conservatives (19% of the electorate), and those who would not consider voting for either (19% of the electorate).

The Liberals and Conservatives have access to half the electorate, but only a portion of it overlaps. Both have accessible voter pools sufficiently large enough to win the election but if we assume the parties need about 37% to 40% of the vote to win a majority, they will need to convert about 3 in 4 of their accessible voters to pull this off. This framing of the electorate also shows that about 1 in 5 potential voters is out of bounds to both parties.

When we look at how each of these groups would vote at the time of the survey, 84% of the Conservative, not Liberal group would vote Conservative. 8% would go NDP while 7% would split between the Greens, People’s Party and BQ. 75% of the Liberal, not Conservative group would vote Liberal with 15% voting NDP and 8% voting Green. 2% would split between the People’s Party and BQ. Among the group who would consider both the Liberals and Conservatives, the Liberals have a slight lead, 43% to 37% over the Conservatives. Another 9% would vote NDP, 7% Green, and 3% to other parties.

Based on this, what are some paths to victory for the Conservatives and Liberals? Let’s control for voter turnout as it’s a variable harder to estimate right now (although a really important one). I will also assume that those not open to voting either the Liberals or Conservatives will stay that way. They will either vote for another party or not vote at all (they are the least likely to say they will vote of the four groups).

A Conservative Path to Victory

Let’s assume that the Conservatives convert the 84% of those who would consider voting Conservative, but not Liberal as our poll says they have now. In order to win at least 37% of the popular vote, they would have to win about half of those open to voting for both the Liberals and Conservatives, 13-points more than they have now.

The challenge for the Conservatives in doing this is that only 25% of this group believe the country is headed off on the wrong track, only 33% definitely want a change in government, and 21% have a negative impression of Mr. Trudeau. Only 19% have a negative of Mr. Scheer but 31% have a neutral view meaning their view of the Conservative Leader can be shaped either positively or negatively. Unless the campaign shifts these views, this may difficult to achieve.

A Liberal Path to Victory

Let’s assume that the Liberals convert the 75% of those who would consider voting Liberal, but not Liberal as our poll says they have now. In order to win at least 37% of the popular vote (although they might be able to win a majority with less than this), they would have to win about two thirds of the group open to both parties, or 23-points more of this group.

This is a tall order for sure, but not impossible. Among this group, 61% think the country is headed in the right direction (another 14% aren’t sure), 79% have either a positive or neutral impression of Mr. Trudeau, and only 24% would react negatively to a Liberal majority. All these numbers suggest it’s possible. The challenge for the Liberals is that 76% of this group would prefer a change in government (33% definitely want change while 43% think change would be good but it’s not important).

So the Liberal campaign needs to convince these voters that they have accomplished a lot, deserve to be re-elected and convert the general positive mood and good will towards Trudeau into votes.

The Upshot

These two scenarios demonstrate that both parties can win this election. But my sense is that the Liberals likely have the easier path than the Conservatives. Even if 1 in 5 voters vote for neither the Liberals nor Conservatives, there are enough left for both parties to win. Focusing on those swing voters that straddle their two universes is what the 2019 election will be about for both the Liberals and Conservatives.

Supporting Data Charts

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 2,000 Canadians aged 18 and over from September 6 to 10, 2019 . A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.  The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

 We completed our latest national survey the day before the official election campaign began.

Here’s where things stand at the start of the campaign:

 LIBERALS LEAD IN ATLANTIC AND QUEBEC, CONSERVATIVES ON THE PRAIRIES. BC AND ONTARIO ARE TWO HORSE RACES.

If an election were held at the time of the survey, the Conservatives (35%) and Liberals (33%) would capture roughly the same amount of popular support, followed by the NDP at 15%, the Greens at 10%, and the BQ at 4% (17% in Quebec).  Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party registers 3% support nationally.

The Conservatives lead among those over 60. The Liberals lead among those under 30. And among voters in between those age groups, the two parties are in a statistical dead heat.

The Liberals lead in the Atlantic provinces and Quebec, while the Conservatives are well ahead in the Prairies. Ontario and British Columbia are close in our latest survey.

Conservatives have a massive lead among voters who self identify as right of centre, including a 49-point lead among “centre-right” voters.  Liberals have substantial leads among left of centre voters, but still split a significant proportion of that vote with the NDP and Green Party, and even with the Conservatives.  Among centre-left voters, the Liberals have a 30-point lead over the NDP.  Worth noting is that among self-described right-wingers, the People’s Party has only 4-5% of the vote.

Because affordability and cost of living issues have featured prominently in the issues that concern Canadians, it is also worth noting that among the 20% of Canadians who say that they can’t afford the things they need, voting intentions are pretty diffuse: 34% would vote Conservative tomorrow, 23% NDP, 19% Liberal and 15% Green.

THE POTENTIAL FOR VOTE SWITCHING

Across the country, 42% say it is very or somewhat likely that they will end up supporting a different party than the one they think they would vote for today.  Quebecers are the most open to possibly switching (49%) while Albertans least so (32%).

Fully 62% of voters under 30 and 51% among those aged 30-44 say they might switch, compared to just 24% among those over 60.

The Conservative vote is most stable, with 33% of current Conservative voters saying them are very or somewhat likely to switch, compared to 43% among Liberal supporters. The Green and NDP voters are most vulnerable, with 56% of Green voters and 52% of NDP voters saying they might look elsewhere on election day.  42% of those who say they are left-wing might switch, compared to just 27% of those who say they are right-wing.

Conservative switchers would scatter 31% to the Liberals, 22% to the NDP, 21% to the Greens and 27% to other parties.

Liberal switchers would also scatter with 37% going to the NDP, 26% going Conservative, and 22% to the Greens.

NDP switchers would be more likely to go Liberal (42%) or Green (33%) than Conservative (16%)

Green Party switchers would go to the NDP (30%) and the Liberals (27%) followed by the Conservatives at 16%. Another quarter would choose another party, split mostly between the BQ and People’s Party.

PREFERRED PRIME MINISTER

Today, 35% would prefer to see Justin Trudeau remain Prime Minister, compared to 33% for Andrew Scheer, 15% for Elizabeth May, and 13% for Jagmeet Singh.  Just 5% would like to see Max Bernier become Prime Minister.

Mr. Trudeau has a 28-point lead in Atlantic Canada on this question and a 16-point lead in Quebec. Mr. Scheer leads Mr. Trudeau by a wide margin in the Prairie provinces while the two are within 3 points of each other in Ontario and British Columbia.

IMPRESSIONS OF THE LEADERS

Mr. Trudeau has 35% positive and 46% negative opinion across the country unchanged from our last survey at the end of August. He is well regarded by those on the left, poorly regarded by those on the right. Among voters in the centre of the spectrum, 31% view him positively, 47% negatively.

Among NDP voters he is -21, among Green Party voters his net favourable/unfavourable score is -34, and among Conservatives, he is -75.

Andrew Scheer has 35% positive and 38% negative opinion nationally both up marginally since the end of August.  He is broadly liked on the right, disliked on the left. Among those on the centre his net score is -5, substantially better than for Mr. Trudeau (-16).

Among NDP voters, Scheer is -40, among Green Party voters he is -46, and among Liberal Party voters he is -46.  He is -43 among BQ voters (Trudeau is -28).

Jagmeet Singh is 30% positive and 28% negative, the first moment in some time that the NDP leader has been into net positive territory as his positives are up 4 since the end of August.  He is +16 among Liberal voters, +2 among Green Party voters, but -33 among Conservatives and -20 among BQ voters.

Elizabeth May has the most favourable image among Canadians with 33% positive and 19% negative (+14).  Among Liberal voters, her image is +17, -11 among Conservatives, +29 among NDP supporters, and +85 among Green supporters.

THE ECONOMY AND STATE OF THE COUNTRY

As the election starts, 43% say the economy is in excellent or good shape and another 31% all the current economy “acceptable”.  Only 27% nationally say the economy is in poor/pretty poor or terrible shape, but that number rises to 51% in Alberta.

Despite this positive assessment of the country, more continue to believe the country is headed off on the wrong track than in the right direction.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “Barring something quite unexpected, this is a race that will go to the Liberals or the Conservatives.  Whether those two parties win from or lose votes to each other is the dynamic that could have the biggest impact on seat counts, but if they mostly hold their ground against each other, the outcome will be decided by how the NDP and Green Parties do at holding or increasing their support levels.

With just over half of Green/NDP votes indicating they could move around, that amounts to about 12% of the electorate.  If the Liberals can pull some of this vote by raising fears of conservative social and environmental values, they will be in a good position to win.  If they can’t, and if the Conservatives can shake loose some Liberal and BQ votes, the outcome could well be a Scheer government. If campaigns always matter – this one may matter even more than usual, given how close things are at the outset.“

According to David Coletto: “The 2019 election begins with a deadlocked national vote and a lot of uncertainty. Voters appear open to persuasion and not fully dialled into politics nor have seriously considered their choices.

A few things stand out to me from our first election poll.

Although we might assume that NDP or Green supporters would prefer Mr. Trudeau over Mr. Scheer as Prime Minister, our data suggests otherwise. If the election becomes polarized, we can’t assume that Mr. Trudeau would be the primary beneficiary of voters who switch their preferences away from the NDP or Greens. While more potential NDP or Green switchers would choose the Liberals over the Conservatives, many say they would go NDP or Green explaining the recent tussle between the NDP and Green Party.

While the NDP has struggled to nominate candidates and will have less money to campaign this time, early signals point to some positive movement for Mr. Singh. For the first time in a while, more view him positively than negatively. This hasn’t translated into more support yet, but it’s some good news for a party that hasn’t had very much over the past few months.

Right now, polling is telling us what voters’ first impressions are. Many haven’t considered their choices or know the leaders all that well. The campaign can either confirm or change them but would be wrong to consider them static. Either way, the electorate is in a more defensive posture than in 2015, despite feeling relatively good about the economy. They don’t seem that excited about their choices and many are likely looking for cues about where the election is going. My sense is that this election begins in uncertain waters and where things end up is quite difficult to predict.”

Check out this additional content:

See what Canadians are searching for online with a quick look at our Google Search trends tracking.

By the way, Abacus Data is growing and looking for an analyst to be based in Ottawa. Find out more here.

And in case you missed it, yesterday we released this new poll with Clean Energy Canada.

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 2,000 Canadians aged 18 and over from September 6 to 10, 2019. A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.  The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.