ABACUS DATA’S FINAL POLL FOR #ELXN44

Earlier today we completed our final survey of Election 44, interviewing 2,431 Canadians eligible to vote from Friday to Sunday at 1:30pm ET. Here is our take on Canadian public opinion as polling stations are set to open tomorrow morning.

THE MOOD OF THE COUNTRY & THE DESIRE FOR CHANGE

Just before the election was called, 46% of Canadians felt the country was headed in the right direction compared with 40% who thought it was off on the right track.

Today, the mood has become more negative with 39% who think it’s headed in the right direction (down 7) and 48% who feel it’s off on the wrong track (up 8)

Regionally, Albertans (58%) are the most likely to feel things are off on the wrong track while views are fairly consistent in other provinces: BC (38%), ON (41%), Quebec (40%).

When asked whether they want to see a change in government or see the Liberals re-elected, 50% definitely want a change in government, 19% want a change but say it’s not important, 11% want the Liberals re-elected but say it isn’t important while 19% definitely want to see the Liberals re-elected. Since the start of the campaign, the more intense desire for change is up 7-points while those definitely wanting to see the Liberals re-elected is holding pretty steady.

LEADERS: SINGH ENDS CAMPAIGN WITH THE BEST IMAGE

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh ends the campaign with the most favourable image: 46% positive and 25% negative for a net score of +21. Mr. Singh’s personal image hasn’t changed much over the campaign but he does end the campaign with higher positives than when the campaign started. Regionally, Mr. Singh’s net score is +26 in BC, +12 in Alberta, +29 in Ontario, and +2 in Quebec.

Mr. Trudeau’s personal numbers have also stayed relatively stable over the campaign. 39% have a positive view of Mr. Trudeau compared with 44% who have a negative view for a net score of -5. Regionally, Mr. Trudeau’s net score is -7 in BC, +2 in Ontario, and -1 in Quebec.

Mr. O’Toole’s positives improved in the early weeks of the campaign but plateaued in the final weeks. 31% have a positive impression of the Conservative leader while 44% view him negatively for a net score of -13. Regionally, Mr. O’Toole’s net score is -12 in BC, +10 in AB, -15 in Ontario and -16 in Quebec.

In Quebec, Mr. Blanchet is viewed quite positively. 40% have a positive impression with 29% negative for a positive image of +11. This is largely unchanged since the start of the campaign.

Maxime Bernier remains the most unpopular leader in federal politics, by a wide margin. 12% have a positive impression of him compared with 51% who have a negative view for a net score of -39.

THE ISSUES

When we ask respondents to pick the top 2 issues that will determine their vote, the top most frequently chosen are reducing the cost of living (36%), improving Canada’s healthcare system (25%), dealing with climate change (21%), making housing more affordable (20%), and growing the economy (19%).

1 in 5 ranks “getting more people vaccinated and getting the country back to normal quicker”, up 3-points since the start of the campaign.

Today, 41% of eligible voters say they have become more worried about the pandemic over the past few days. This view is higher in Alberta (59%) and lower in Ontario (36%).

Housing affordability is a top issue for 26% of those under 45 compared with 16% for older respondents. Older respondents are more likely to rate “getting more people vaccinated” as a top issue than younger respondents (24% vs. 13%).

For Liberal voters, the top 5 issues are reducing the cost of living (32%), improving healthcare (29%), getting more people vaccinated (27%), dealing with climate change (26%), and growing the economy (19%). Only 7% rate managing the federal budget deficit in their top 5 issues.

For Conservative voters, the top 5 issues are reducing the cost of living (36%), managing the federal budget deficit (32%), growing the economy (31%), improving the healthcare system (22%), and running an ethical and scandal-free government (16%). Only 8% rate climate change as a top issue.

For NDP voters, the top 5 issues are reducing the cost of living (40%), making housing more affordable (29%), dealing with climate change (29%), improving the healthcare system (25%), and getting more people vaccinated (18%). 11% of NDP supporters rank reconciliation with Indigenous people as a top issue – the highest of any party supporters.

For People’s Party voters, the top 5 issues are reducing the cost of living (45%), making housing more affordable (28%), growing the economy (27%), running an ethical and scandal-free government (20%), managing the federal budget deficit (11%). Only 5% say getting more people vaccinated is a top issue – the lowest of any party’s supporters.

When asked which party and leader is best on each issue, the Liberals lead on “getting more people vaccinated and getting the country back to normal quicker”, “representing Canada internationally”, “making childcare more affordable”, “achieving reconciliation with Indigenous people”, and “dealing with climate change”.

The Conservatives lead on “growing the economy”, “managing the budget deficit”, and “dealing with crime and public safety.”

The NDP doesn’t lead on any policy area but is competitive with the other parties on “improving healthcare”, “making housing more affordable” and “protecting public services.”

On the issue most people cite as important to their vote – the cost of living – no party has a clear advantage.

AN UNNECESSARY ELECTION VS. THE PROSPECT OF A CONSERVATIVE GOVERNMENT

The election call itself continues to be a source of frustration for many eligible voters and has coloured their voting decision. More than half of eligible voters say that “Justin Trudeau calling the election when he didn’t have to” has made them less likely to vote Liberal. 21% say they will not vote Liberal because of this, 17% say they are much less likely to vote Liberal, while 15% say it makes them somewhat less likely to vote Liberal.

Among NDP supporters, 61% say they are less likely to vote Liberal because of the election call. Among those who voted Liberal in 2019, 34% say they are less likely to vote Liberal, including 5% who say they won’t vote Liberal because of this decision.

But a similar tension exists regarding the prospect of a Conservative win in the election. When we asked what impact the possibility that the Conservatives could win the election and form a government, 35% say they are more likely to vote Liberal, 25% say they are more likely to vote Conservative while 40% say it doesn’t impact their views or behaviour.

Among LPC/CPC switchers (those whose first or second choice is the Liberals or Conservatives), 45% are more likely to vote Liberal compared with 16% who are more likely to vote Conservative if there’s a possibility of a Conservative win. Among LPC/NDP switchers, 68% say they are more likely to vote Liberal while only 8% say they are more likely to vote Conservative.

So, on the one hand, the election call has likely hurt Liberal support while the prospect of a Conservative government has helped it. Depending on how voters tomorrow balance this tension could ultimately decide the election.

INTEREST AND ATTENTION TO THE ELECTION

Over the course of the campaign, interest in the election has wanned from an average interest score of 7.4 when the campaign began to 6.9 today.

Similarly, when asked how much attention they are paying to the election, 13% say they are following it very closely, 33% pretty closely, 45% only a little, while 9% are not following it at all.

As a measure of engagement and possibility, a predictor of turnout tomorrow, 58% of Conservative supporters says they following the election closely, 8-points higher than Liberal supporters, and 17-points higher than NDP supporters. Only 42% of People Party supporters say they are following the election closely.

CANADIANS THINK THE RESULT WILL BE CLOSE & MORE THINK LIBERALS WILL WIN

Most Canadians believe the election result will be close (78%) while 10% think one party will win by quite a bit.

When asked which party will win tomorrow, 43% of eligible voters think the Liberals will win (up 6 since last week), 23% think the Conservatives will win (down 3) while 22% are unsure.

PREFERRED PM: TRUDEAU LEADS MR. O’TOOLE BY 3

When asked who they would prefer to be PM after the election, 35% picked Mr. Trudeau while 32% would choose Mr. O’Toole. 1 in 5 would prefer Mr. Singh (22%) to become prime minister while 7% prefer Mr. Bernier and 3% Ms. Paul.

In BC, it’s a three-way race with Mr. Trudeau (32%), Mr. Singh (31%), and Mr. O’Toole (30%) all bunched around 30%.

In Ontario, Mr. Trudeau has an 8-point lead on preferred PM over Mr. O’Toole (37% to 29%) with Mr. Singh at 23%.

In Quebec, 47% would prefer Mr. Trudeau compared with 28% for Mr. O’Toole and 15% for Mr. Singh.

WHAT ELECTION OUTCOME DO CANADIANS WANT?

Asked which of four (most likely based on today’s numbers) outcomes they would prefer, 60% would prefer a Liberal victory (28% majority, 32% minority) while 40% would prefer a Conservative win (15% minority, 25% majority). This is mostly unchanged from our last survey and has been consistent throughout the election.

Among NDP supporters, 74% would prefer a Liberal government over a Conservative one (58% want a Liberal minority) while BQ supporters are split. 51% want a Liberal government (45% want a Liberal minority) while 49% want a Conservative government (with 43% wanting a Conservative minority).

Among People’s Party supporters, 78% want a Conservative government (including 41% who want a Conservative majority) while 22% would prefer a Liberal government.

ACCESSIBLE VOTER POOLS

As the campaign comes to an end, the Liberals and NDP continue to have the largest pool of accessible voters compared with the other parties. 51% are open to voting Liberal while 52% are open to voting NDP. 43% would consider voting Conservative and 27% would be open to voting Green. 18% are open to voting for the People’s Party across the country In Quebec, 42% say they are open to voting for the BQ.

Over the campaign, the Liberal and Green accessible voter pools have declined 4-points, while the NDP pool is up 3 and the Conservative pool is up 2. The People’s Party pool of accessible voters is unchanged.

OUR FINAL POPULAR VOTE ESTIMATE: CONSERVATIVES AND LIBERALS STATISTICALLY TIED

Combining those who have already voted and those likely to vote tomorrow, Conservatives and Liberals are statistically tied with the Conservatives at 32%, the Liberals at 31% and the NDP at 19%. Since last weekend, the Conservative vote share in unchanged, the Liberals are down 1 and the NDP is down 2. We have the People’s Party at 6%, up 2 since last week while the Greens are at 4%, up 1.

In BC, we see the Conservatives slightly ahead of the NDP (35% to 32%) with the Liberals at 23%. In Alberta, the Conservatives are well ahead of the NDP (51% to 22%) with the Liberals at 14%. The People’s Party is at 6%. In Ontario, the Liberals lead by 8 over the Conservatives (40% to 32%) while in Quebec, the Liberals and BQ are statistically tied (31% to 30%) with the Conservatives in third at 18%.

NDP support is strongest among those aged 18 to 29 at 24% and drops to 16% among those 45 to 59. Liberal support is consistent across age groups, while the Conservatives are stronger among older voters and weaker among younger ones.

In our survey, 38% of eligible voters said they cast a ballot either by mail or at an advance poll. Among those who voted at an advance poll, the Conservatives are ahead by 7 (35% to 28%) with the NDP at 19%. Among those who said they voted by mail, the vote is split 33% Liberal, 32% Conservative, 17% NDP.

Among those likely to vote tomorrow, the vote is: Liberal 33%, Conservative 29%, NDP 21%, People’s Party 7%, BQ 5%, and GPC 4%.

UPSHOT

Our final poll of the 44thCanadian General Election indicates that the election outcome is far from certain as the Conservatives and Liberals seem locked in more or less a tie nationally. The Liberal lead in Ontario along with a competitive race with the BQ in Quebec may ultimately help it win the most seats. But our extensive review of the data leaves us unable to make a confident projection except that every vote will count and we are heading towards another minority parliament.

This has been an election campaign that Canadians have largely tuned out. Over the five weeks of the campaign, we find that interest has wanned.

For the Liberals, general approval over its handling of the pandemic has been largely overshadowed by the negative reaction most felt when the election was called. They have been unable, to this point, to entice many NDP supporters into their camp in part because only a small minority believe the Conservatives are likely to win the election. You can’t fear an outcome you don’t think is likely to happen.

For the Conservatives, despite effectively litigating the “unnecessary election” theme throughout the campaign, the desire for change remains lower than in 2019 and they haven’t been able to galvanize enough voters who want to see the Liberals replaced. While their pool of accessible voters has grown over the campaign, Mr. O’Toole’s personal image plateaued after a quick rise in the early weeks of the campaign.

More still would prefer to see a Liberal government to a Conservative one.

Ultimately, for swing voters, the choice in this election is likely between punishing the Liberals for the election call or sticking with the incumbents in the face of rising COVID-19 cases and growing anxiety about the pandemic.

Turnout, more than ever, will be critical to the final outcome. With longer than expected wait times to vote, the final outcome may hinge or a few hundred votes in a dozen or so seats scattered across the country.

If the final results come close to our estimates, this would be the lowest share of the popular vote the two largest parties would have earned since the 1997 federal election. The level of fragmentation in our party system is very high.

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 2,431 Canadian adults eligible to vote from September 17 to 19, 2021. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.0%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

We just completed a national survey of 2,000 Canadians eligible to vote in the current federal election completed entirely after the French and English leaders’ debates last week.

If an election were held now, the Conservatives would win 32% of the vote (unchanged), the Liberals 32% (unchanged), the NDP 21% (unchanged), the Green Party 3% (unchanged) and the BQ at 29% in Quebec (down 2). The People’s Party is at 4% nationally.

• In BC, we see a very tight three-way race with the NDP at 31%, the Liberals at 31%, and the Conservatives at 29%.

• In Alberta, 57% would vote Conservative compared with 23% for the NDP, 11% for the Liberals, 3% for the People’s Party and 1% for the Maverick Party.

• In Manitoba and Saskatchewan, the Conservatives lead with 43% followed by the NDP at 24% and the Liberals at 18%.

• In Ontario, the Liberals have opened up a 7-point lead over the Conservatives (38% to 31%) with the NDP at 23%.

• Within Ontario, the Liberals have a 21-point lead over the Conservatives in Toronto and a 14-point lead in the surrounding region. The Liberals and Conservatives are tied in eastern Ontario while the Conservatives lead by 12 in the southwest.

• In Quebec, we see the Liberals ahead of the BQ by 7-points with the Conservatives at 17% and the NDP at 13%. This is a rise for the Liberals of 4-points and a drop for the BQ of 2-points.

• In the Atlantic provinces, the liberals are ahead by 3 over the Conservatives (39% to 36%) with the NDP at 15%.

The Conservatives lead among those who say they will definitely vote by 4-points (35% to 31%) This is largely unchanged from our last poll.

LEADERS’ DEBATES

About half of francophones (49%) said they watched all of some of the French language Commission debate. The audience among anglophones for the English language debate was smaller, with only 41% indicating they had watched some or all of it.

For the French debate, four of the five leaders left more positive than negative impressions, with Mr. Blanchet (+25), Mr. Trudeau (+14), Mr. Singh (+8), and Mr. O’Toole (+7). More said Ms. Paul’s performance left a negative view than a positive one (-13).

When asked which leader did the most to earn their vote, Justin Trudeau was the choice of 30% ahead of Mr. Blanchet 24% and Mr. O’Toole at 20%. When asked which leader did the more to lose their vote, Mr. Trudeau also came out on top with 26% selecting the Liberal leader followed by Mr. O’Toole at 19%, and Mr. Blanchet at 15%.

For the English debate, four of the five leaders left more positive than negative impressions, led by Mr. Singh (33), Mr. O’Toole ( +11), Mr. Trudeau (+2), Ms Paul (+9). Mr. Blanchet was the only leader who had a net negative reaction (-20).

When asked which leader did the most to earn their vote, Justin Trudeau was the choice of 29% slightly ahead of Mr. O’Toole at 26% and Mr. Singh at 22%. When asked which leader did the more to lose their vote, Mr. Trudeau also came out on top with 33% selecting the Liberal leader followed by Mr. O’Toole at 26%, and Mr. Singh at 8%.

Overall, reaction to the debate was largely aligned with one’s vote inclination.

• 69% of LPC supporters felt Mr. Trudeau did the most to earn their vote.
• 76% of CPC supporters felt Mr. O’Toole did the most to earn their vote
• 69% of NDP supporters thought Mr. Singh did the best.

Among LPC/NDP switchers, 46% thought Mr. Trudeau did the best, 34% picked Mr. Singh.

PREFERRED ELECTION OUTCOME

Asked which of four (most likely based on today’s numbers) outcomes they would prefer, 60% would prefer a Liberal victory (30% majority, 30% minority) while 40% would prefer a Conservative win (15% minority, 25% majority). This is mostly unchanged from our last survey.

EXPECTED ELECTION OUTCOME

As of today, 37% expect the Liberals to win (unchanged from our last poll), followed by 28% who expect the Conservatives to win (down 2 since the last wave and +10 since the start of the campaign), and 7% who expect the NDP to come out on top.

When asked whether the election will be close or will one party win by a lot, 75% think it will be close (up 4 points) while 13% think one party will win by a lot. 12% are not sure. Among LPC/NDP switchers 82% think it will be close.

Those who would prefer the LPC to win but think the Conservatives are going to win makes up 5% of the electorate – holding steady from last week.

LEADER IMPRESSIONS

Justin Trudeau enjoys a positive impression among 40% and negative impressions among 43%, for a net score of -3. This is a slight increase in positives for Mr. Trudeau. Regionally, Mr. Trudeau’s net favourables are -2 in BC, -39 in Alberta, -18 in SK/MB, +2 in Ontario, +2 in Quebec, and +30 in Atlantic Canada. Among Liberal/NDP switchers Trudeau is +65. Among Liberal/Conservative switchers he is +53.

Jagmeet Singh enjoys a positive impression among 44% and finds negative impressions among 26% for a net score of +18.

Regionally, Mr. Singh’s net favourables are +29 in BC, +15 in AB, +17 in SK/MB, +26 in Ontario, -2 in Quebec, and +28 in Atlantic Canada. Among Liberal/NDP switchers Singh is +75.

Today 31% have a positive impression of the Conservative leader Erin O’Toole unchanged) while his negatives are at 41% (+2) for a net score of -10.

Regionally, Mr. O’Toole’s net favourables are -13 in BC, +10 in AB, -5 in SK/MB, -6 in Ontario, -21 in Quebec, and -23 in Atlantic Canada. Among Liberal/Conservative switchers O’Toole is +49.

In Quebec, BQ Leader Mr. Blanchet is 39% positive and 29% negative for a net score of +10. Mr. Blanchet’s is largely unchanged from the last wave.

DESIRE FOR CHANGE

Today, 49% definitely want to see a change in government (unchanged from last week) while another 21% say it would be good to have a change, but it is not really that important to them (up 1), for a total of 70% who would prefer a change in government.

The vote preference by change group is important to understanding the election. Among those who prefer change but say it isn’t that important to them (21% of the electorate at the moment), the Liberals have opened up a 13-point lead over the NDP with the Conservatives in third. Liberal re-election hopes continue to ride on how this group ultimately leans and Mr. Trudeau’s party seem to be gaining over timing.

Among those who say they want to keep the Liberals in office but it’s not important to them, 74% would vote Liberal compared with 9% who would vote NDP.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “The debates are over and the campaign enters its final week with more good news for the Liberals than for their competitors, although the outcome is far from clear. Mr. O’Toole’s reputation gains have stalled, and the Liberals have gained some precious margin in Ontario and Quebec. BC looks like a vital and potentially determining race. Perhaps the most important news in this poll for the Liberals is that the desire for change may be softening and among those who were leaning towards a change but not committed to that position, the Liberals find more support this week.

None of the leaders performed badly enough to affect their prospects in this election, and it’s arguable that the PM accomplished more of what he needed to accomplish than his main rivals did in the debates.”

According to David Coletto: “With a week to go the race remains tight nationally but the Liberals have opened up some leads in vote-rich Ontario and Quebec. Right now, the Liberals have the advantage as the debates don’t seem to have made much difference except for reinforcing some pre-existing ideas people had of the leaders.

In my opinion, the most important data point in this release is the question about the desire for change. At 49%, those definitely wanting a change in government remain below the 2019 number and has hasn’t moved in a few weeks now.

Instead of articulating a clear rationale for why the Liberals should be replaced, the Conservative and NDP campaigns have focused on the election call itself. Undoubtedly people are annoyed by the election, but so far, it doesn’t look like either has made much progress in convincing past Liberal voters to switch their support.

Because they have repeatedly claimed this election was “unnecessary” they may have inadvertently helped the Liberals buffer against growth in a desire for change.”

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 2,000 Canadian adults eligible to vote from September 10 to 12, 2021. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/-2.1%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

We just completed a national survey of 2,875 Canadians eligible to vote in the current federal election completed entirely after last Thursday’s TVA debate. Fieldwork was carried out from Friday to Monday.

If an election were held now, the Conservatives would win 32% of the vote (-1 from our last poll), the Liberals 32% (unchanged), the NDP 21% (unchanged), the Green Party 3% (unchanged) and the BQ at 31% in Quebec (unchanged)

• In BC, we see a three-way race with the NDP at 35%, the Liberals at 29%, and the Conservatives at 27%.

• In Alberta, 50% would vote Conservative compared with 24% for the Liberals, 20% for the NDP, 3% for the People’s Party and 1% for the Maverick Party.

• In Manitoba and Saskatchewan, the Conservatives lead with 46% followed by the NDP at 24% and the Liberals at 24%.

• In Ontario, the Liberals have a three-point lead over the Conservatives (37% to 34%) with the NDP at 21%.

• Within Ontario, the Liberals have a 19-point lead in the 416 region of Toronto, lead by 5 over the Conservatives in the GTHA (postal codes start with L), the Liberals and Conservatives are statistically tied in Eastern Ontario while the Conservatives have a 9-point lead over the NDP in the Southwest.

• In Quebec, we see the LPC and BQ are neck and neck (32% to 31%) with the Conservatives at 21% and the NDP at 13%. Since our last full sample done before the debate in Quebec at the end of August, the Liberals are up 3 while the BQ is down 3 but this change is all within the margin of error.

• In the Atlantic provinces, the Liberal are ahead by 7 over the Conservatives (39% to 32%) with the NDP at 20%.

The Conservatives continue to have a marginal 2-point lead among those who are most likely to vote. Among the 69% of respondents who said they would definitely be voting, the Conservatives have 34% compared with 32% for the Liberals and 21% for the NDP. This is largely unchanged from our last poll.

TVA DEBATE REACTIONS

In Quebec, 48% of respondents said they watched all (20%) or some (28%) of the leaders’ debate on TVA Thursday night. Another 27% said they heard about it from others while 25% did not hear anything about the debate.

Outside Quebec, 6% said they watched all of the debate, 15% watched some of it, while 33% heard something about it from others or the news.

It appears the audience for this debate was slightly larger than in 2019. In a survey we did post-debate in 2019, 14% said they watched all of it, 27% watched some, while 37% heard something about it from others.

Those who watched or heard something about the debate were asked whether each leader made a positive or negative impression.

All four leaders left more positive than negative impressions, with Trudeau (+25) and Blanchet (+34) notching better net impacts than O’Toole (+10) and Singh (+12).

When asked specifically which leader did the most to earn their vote, Justin Trudeau was the choice of 33%, well ahead of Mr. Blanchet (22%), Mr. O’Toole (20%) and Mr. Singh (13%).

When asked which leader did the more to lose their vote, Mr. Trudeau also came out on top with 30% selecting the Liberal leader followed by Mr. O’Toole at 24%, Mr. Singh at 13%, and Mr. Blanchet at 12%. 1 in 5 felt that none of them did more to lose their vote.

Overall, these results suggest that Mr. Trudeau and Mr. Blanchet had better nights than the other two leaders but that no leader performed poorly.

PREFERRED ELECTION OUTCOME

Asked which of four (most likely based on today’s numbers) outcomes they would prefer, 58% would prefer a Liberal victory (30% majority, 28% minority) while 42% would prefer a Conservative win (15% minority, 27% majority). This is unchanged from our previous survey.

A Liberal win is the preference of 65% in BC, 44% in Alberta, 48% in Manitoba/Saskatchewan, 62% in Ontario, 67% in Quebec, and 64% in Atlantic Canada.

Among Liberal/NDP switchers 99% would prefer a Liberal to a Conservative victory. Among NDP voters 72% would prefer a Liberal win.

Among BQ voters 51% would prefer the Liberals win, compared to 49% who would like the Conservatives to come out on top.

Among Liberal/Conservative switchers 72% would prefer to see the Liberals win.

EXPECTED ELECTION OUTCOME

As of today, 37% expect the Liberals to win (unchanged from our last poll but down 6 since last week), followed by 30% who expect the Conservatives to win (up 2 since the last wave and +12 since the start of the campaign), and 7% who expect the NDP to come out on top.

When asked whether the election will be close or will one party win by a lot, 71% think it will be close while 14% think one party will win by a lot. 15% are not sure. Among LPC/NDP switchers 81% think it will be close.

Those who would prefer the LPC to win but think the Conservatives are going to win makes up 5% of the electorate – continuing to rise over the past week.

LEADER IMPRESSIONS

Justin Trudeau enjoys a positive impression among 38% and negative impressions among 43%, for a net score of -5. This is unchanged from last week. Regionally, Mr. Trudeau’s net favourables are -4 in BC, -24 in Alberta, -27 in SK/MB, 0 in Ontario, -2 in Quebec, and +6 in Atlantic Canada. Among Liberal/NDP switchers Trudeau is +71. Among Liberal/Conservative switchers he is +46.

Jagmeet Singh enjoys a positive impression among 44% and finds negative impressions among 25% for a net score of +19.

Regionally, Mr. Singh’s net favourables are +29 in BC, +10 in AB, +20 in SK/MB, +25 in Ontario, +2 in Quebec, and +30 in Atlantic Canada. Among Liberal/NDP switchers Singh is +77.

Today 31% have a positive impression of the Conservative leader Erin O’Toole (+1 from last wave) while his negatives are at 39% (-1) for a net score of -8.

Regionally, Mr. O’Toole’s net favourables are -21 in BC, +7 in AB, +5 in SK/MB, -7 in Ontario, -10 in Quebec, and -10 in Atlantic Canada. Among Liberal/Conservative switchers O’Toole is +47.

In Quebec, BQ Leader Mr. Blanchet is 40% positive and 30% negative for a net score of +10. Mr. Blanchet’s negatives are up 5 since the end of August.

ACCESSIBLE VOTER POOLS

The Liberal Party continues to have the largest pool of accessible voters (those open to voting Liberal) at 51% followed by the NDP at 49% and the Conservatives at 46%. One in four are open to voting Green, 1 in 5 are open to voting for the People’s Party and almost half in Quebec say they are open to voting for the BQ.

Since the campaign started, the Conservative pool has grown by 5, the BQ by 4 while the Greens have seen their accessible voter pool drop by 4 points. The Liberal and NDP voter pools are largely unchanged.

DESIRE FOR CHANGE

Today, 49% definitely want to see a change in government (up 1 since our last survey) while another 20% say it would be good to have a change, but it is not really that important to them (down 3), for a total of 69% who would prefer a change in government.

The vote preference by change group is important to understanding the election. Among those who prefer change but say it isn’t that important to them (20% of the electorate at the moment), the Liberals and NDP are statistically tied (LPC 34% vs. NDP 30%) with the Conservatives in third. Liberal re-election hopes likely ride on how this group ultimately leans.

Among those who say they want to keep the Liberals in office but it’s not important to them, 68% would vote Liberal compared with 16% who would vote NDP.

PREFERRED PRIME MINISTER

Today, 37% of voters would prefer Justin Trudeau be PM after the election, 32% would prefer Erin O’Toole, and 24% Jagmeet Singh. This is almost the exact same split as our last poll.

Asked if the choice was only between O’Toole and Trudeau, Trudeau would be the preference of 57% (up 1) and O’Toole 44% (down 1). When asked who they would prefer between Mr. O’Toole and Mr. Singh, the split is almost the same, 56% would prefer Mr. Singh and 44% would prefer Mr. O’Toole.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “Anyone who felt that this election had a locked-in trajectory will want to revisit that point of view as more data is suggesting this race can be won by either one of two parties and that many voters remain uncertain what they will do. The TVA debate was a good outing for Mr. Trudeau but also for his chief rival in Quebec, Mr. Blanchet. Battles in BC, Ontario and Quebec are too close to call and the coming week, with more debates and more advertising, will be of vital importance for all the campaigns.”

According to David Coletto: “The race remains deadlocked nationally with the Liberals ahead in Ontario and tied in Quebec. Even among those most likely to vote, the 2-point Conservative margin is unlikely to win them more seats than the Liberals.

The TVA debate doesn’t appear to have changed the trajectory of the campaign with more saying Mr. Trudeau and Mr. Blanchet left a positive impression and vote intentions and leader impressions largely the same as before the debate.

But the static horse-race numbers obscure some important shifts and underlying perceptions/views that give us a sense of where this campaign could go in the final two weeks:

1. Those thinking the Conservatives will win the election continue to grow. When the campaign started, the gap was 46% Liberal vs. 18% Conservative. Today it is 37% who think the Liberals will win versus 30% who think the Conservatives will win.

2. More voters continue to prefer a Liberal government to a Conservative one and this preference is not shifting much over time.

3. The Conservatives have been able to increase their pool of accessible voters over the campaign and have converted some new supporters. Among its current supporters, 76% voted for the party in 2019 while 23% are new supporters – either saying they voted for a different party in 2019 or did not vote at all. This is similar to what we are seeing for the Liberals (32%) which means it’s stuck tied with the Liberals now because it isn’t converting enough new supporters to build on its 2019 results.

4. So far, the NDP has done the best at growing supporting. Of its current supporters, 49% said they voted NDP in 2019 meaning half of its support is new – with the bulk coming from potentially new voters (24%) who say they didn’t vote in 2019 either cause they weren’t eligible or they chose not to.

5. The desire for change remains at about the level it was when the 2019 campaign ended (49% today vs. 52% in 2019). Keeping this number below 52% is critical for the Liberals. Getting it higher is a must for both the Conservatives and the NDP.

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 2,875 Canadian adults eligible to vote from September 3 to 6, 2021. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/-1.9%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

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