A new poll finds Canadians recognize the risk those in refugee camps face over COVID-19 and the need to stop the spread of the virus everywhere before a full recovery can begin.

In mid-May, Abacus Data conducted a national public opinion survey commissioned by World Vision, a global relief, development, and advocacy organization. The study explored how Canadians are feeling about the pandemic through a global lens with a focus on those living in refugee and displaced persons camps. Read World Vision’s press release here.

Here is what we found:

GLOBAL IMPACTS OF THE PANDEMIC ARE ON THE MINDS OF CANADIANS.

Most Canadians have considered the impact of the pandemic on those living in poorer countries around the world.

• 85% have thought of the pandemic impacts on those living in poor countries around the world. This includes 26% who have thought about this a great deal.
• 78% have thought about the pandemic causing greater inequality in our society. This includes 20% who have thought about this a great deal.

As Canadians have had time to process the impacts of the pandemic, many are thinking about what this means for their lives at home, but also about what it means for others around the world.

Concern about infectious disease spread around the world has increased 13-points since January 2020, when we asked the same question in another survey.

And two thirds (63%) of Canadians have been following news about COVID-19 in poorer countries, at least a little. This includes 30% who have been following these stories very or pretty closely.

NEARLY ALL CANADIANS RECOGNIZE THE MUCH HIGHER RISK OF COVID-19 FACED BY THOSE LIVING IN POVERTY/UNSTABLE LIVING CONDITIONS.

A large majority of Canadians say the impacts of COVID-19 and coronavirus have much bigger consequences for those who do not have a stable home with access to healthcare.

Compared to the impact on Canadians, Canadians think the impacts of COVID-19 and coronavirus will be worse (much worse/worse) for:

• Those living in high-density communities in poor countries where lots of people live close together 73%
• Those living in communities in poor countries with limiter healthcare facilities and professionals: 73%
• Those living in war-torn regions where millions have been forced to leave their homes: 70%
• Children living in refugee or displaced persons camps: 71%
• The world’s most vulnerable populations: 71%
• Those living in refugee or displaced persons camps: 70%
• Those living in areas with high levels of poverty: 71%

The pandemic has been disrupted so many lives in Canada and many continue to worry about its impact at home. 79% describe the pandemic as a crisis unlike anything we have faced before or a very serious problem.

But most are also recognize that the impact of COVID-19 at home will be nowhere near as bad as it can be for those living in poverty and unstable living conditions around the world, including in refugee or displaced persons camps.

70% say the impact of COVID-19 on those in refugee or displaced persons camps will be much worse/worse than the impacts felt by Canadians overall.

MOST RECOGNIZE THE HEIGHTENED RISK FOR THOSE IN REFUGEE/DISPLACED PERSONS CAMPS IS A RESULT OF MORE THAN ONE FACTOR.

Density is a big reason for the heightened risk. Two in three Canadians say the higher density in these camps makes it much risker for those living in there, as COVID-19 can more easily spread and easily spread to a larger number of people.

Altogether, 90% of Canadians say density makes the risk of COVID-19 higher for persons living in these camps. Density also poses challenges to physical distancing. 89% also recognize the challenges of practicing physical distancing in refugee/displaced persons camps.

Another risk factor for those in refugee/displaced persons camp is access to healthcare services. 88% of Canadians say a lack of appropriate healthcare facilities makes these living conditions riskier (including 60% who say this factor makes it ‘much riskier’).

AS MUCH AS THEY ARE CONCERNED ABOUT THE CONSEQUENCES FOR THOSE LIVING IN THESE CAMPS, CANADIANS ALSO SEE THE SPREAD OF COVID-19 IN REFUGEE/DISPLACED PERSONS CAMPS HAVING A DIRECT IMPACT ON THEIR OWN LIFE BACK IN CANADA.

Canadians understand the implications of COVID-19 spreading within these camps, and they also see the potential for a wider impact on more than just those living in these camps.

A majority of Canadians agree with the notion that a major outbreak in refugee camps has the ability to spread back to Canada. 71% feel this could be a possibility, including 20% who say an outbreak in refugee camps would certainly spread back to Canada.

Nearly all feel that with our world being so interconnected, a return to normal cannot be possible until the spread of the disease is under control across the globe.

88% felt an outbreak in an entirely different part of the world could have a real impact on Canadians. 82% say that “before a vaccine is found, unless COVID-19 is controlled in all parts of the world, we won’t really be ale to return to normal life here”. And 80% agree that even if the curve is flattened in Canada, we can’t go back to normal if cases continue to spike in other parts of the world.

Until actions are taken to lessen the spread in other regions of the world, Canadians will likely be hesitant about a complete ‘return to normal’. A full COVID-19 recovery in Canada, means a COVD-19 recovery worldwide.

UPSHOT

Four months into the COVID-19 pandemic, many Canadians are engaged, considering the implications for not only their own lives, but those in other parts of the world. Our research shows that Canadians have moved through phases of initial concern and uncertainty, to a more forward-thinking mindset about how we move forward and emerge from this pandemic. This includes how we prevent another large-scale outbreak from happening again.

A second wave has been top-of -mind for Canadians as we continue through this COVID phase. In the latest wave of our COVID-19 tracking study 95% of Canadians expressed some level of concern regarding a second wave.

Concerns for a second wave are legitimate. Canada (for the most part) has seen enough of a reduction in cases that we can begin to re-open. But this is not the case worldwide. The case-trend line continues to move upward in other areas of the world, notably in South-East Asia and Africa.

Even if cases are under control in Canada, a resurgence of cases in Canada is entirely possible, because of an outbreak elsewhere.

88% say that our world is so interconnected that an outbreak in another part of the world could impact Canadians again.

One lesson from the pandemic that Canadians clearly understand is how interconnected our world really is. What happens on the other side of the globe and easily impact life here.

To prevent a second wave, the case count will need to be reduced worldwide. And a majority of Canadians feel that an outbreak anywhere could have consequences for Canadians, including a refugee/displaced persons camp.

71% say that an outbreak in a refugee camp, on the other side of the world, could have a direct impact on the case count in Canada.

This includes 20% who say an outbreak in refugee camps would certainly spread back to Canada. The consequences of an outbreak in these places will need to be part of a recovery plan that mitigates the risk of a second wave here in Canada.

While Canada may be able to continue to decrease cases and control for a second wave inside our borders, not everyone worldwide will have the same opportunities. With limited access to space, healthcare services and resources for proper hygiene, 70% say the risk of contracting COVID-19 in a refugee/displaced persons camp is higher than the risk of contracting COVID-19 in Canada. Under these conditions, an outbreak in these areas is likely to result in more cases, than an outbreak in Canada. And should this outbreak occur, it could pose a real challenge for Canadians.

Controlling the risks for a second wave means lessening the risk of a second wave, or continuation of the first wave, everywhere, not just here at home.

Canadians recognize the risk of those living in refugee or displaced person’s camps. They are thinking about it and engaged. They know our world is small and interconnected. For the recovery to work, it has to be global, not just focused on our domestic needs.

FIND OUT MORE

World Vision’s Press Release on the Survey
A new poll released by World Vision reveals that Canadians recognize that life won’t return to normal unless the pandemic is stopped everywhere. As the virus continues to spread, the findings also revealed that Canadians are very aware of the COVID-19 risk to those living in crowded conditions like refugee camps, and most are concerned about the resulting potential of a second wave of the virus.

COVID-19 Aftershocks: A Perfect Storm
This report looks at one those impacts of COVID-19 on girls and boys. Violence. We predict a major spike in the cases of children experiencing physical, emotional and sexual violence, both now and in the months and years to come. Whether they are forced to stay at home, or, in time, are sent to work or pushed into early marriage, boys and girls face a bleak future – unless governments, UN agencies, donors, NGOs, and the private sector do everything thing they can now to protect them.

COVID-19 Aftershocks: Secondary impacts threaten more children’s lives than disease itself
As many as 30 million children are at risk of disease and death because of the secondary impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. World Vision’s Aftershocks report considers what would happen if the devastating secondary impacts of the 2015-2016 Ebola outbreak on children were replicated in the 24 most fragile countries covered by the UN’s COVID-19 humanitarian appeal.

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted with 2,087 Canadian adults between the dates of May 14 to 19, 2020. A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.12, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

Find out more about what we are doing to help clients respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

In mid-May, the Canadian Medical Association commissioned us to conduct a national survey to explore Canadian perceptions, impressions, and behaviours when it comes to virtual healthcare.

The full report can be found here.

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused disruptions in many parts of our daily life, including in the ways we can access the medical services we need.

Not being able to visit a doctor’s office might have led to frustrations. But instead, Canadians and their doctors have been able to connect, exchange information and advice, using different forms of communication.

Connected care has become widespread.  Since the pandemic arrived, millions of patients and their doctors have used phone calls, emails, texts and videoconferences to substitute for in-person consultations.

KEY FINDINGS

1) Almost half of all Canadians have now accessed a physician using virtual care options and they are highly satisfied with the results.

2) Those who connected with their doctor virtually during COVID-19 report a 91% satisfaction rate – 17 points higher than in-person emergency room visits.

3) Over 1 in 3 Canadians would prefer virtual contact with a physician as their first point of contact after the pandemic. Among those who have used virtual care since the pandemic, almost half would prefer it as their first point of contact.

4) Almost half (46%) of Canadians who had the opportunity to use virtual care since the pandemic outbreak would prefer a virtual method as the first point of contact with their doctor.

5) Half or more believe that if more people used virtual care as the first point of contact in the future, convenience for the average patient would improve (59%) while the cost to the health system would decline (50%). Few (19%) think the quality of care for routine needs would get worse.

The full report can be found here.

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1,800 Canadian residents from May 14 to 17, 2020. A random sample of panellists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.31%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

Find out more about what we are doing to help clients respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

COVID has people preoccupied with the economy and health. However, support for a wide range of clean infrastructure choices is broad across Canada.

New Abacus Data-Clean Energy Canada polling reveals that the current economic and health challenges have done little or nothing to diminish support for infrastructure changes that will create a cleaner Canadian economy in the future.

When asked how the pandemic affected their thoughts on the climate change issue, an equal number said that they were more convinced than ever that a change towards a cleaner economy was possible as said these ideas should come behind concerns with the economy and health.

A total of 11% have never favoured action to fight climate change, a view more common among Albertans (20%), men 60 or older (17%) and Conservative Party supporters (23%). Another 32% say that COVID makes them feel we must concentrate first on health and the economy and be less preoccupied with climate, again led by Albertans (37%) and Conservatives (43%).

However, a majority say “even with COVID we must not back away from efforts to combat climate change” (26%) or “COVID makes me more convinced than ever that we can and should make changes now in how we live and work, that help fight climate change”. This last sentiment is led by women under 40 (39%) and has above average support from NDP, Liberal, Green and BQ voters.

When it comes to about a dozen different specific policy ideas for infrastructure, all of the items tested found more than 80% support or acceptance – opposition in no case exceeds 18%.

(Not all the items tested in terms of infrastructure improvements had to do with achieving environmental or climate goals; we included some items that were linked to the changed experience of living within the context of the COVID-19 pandemic.)

Here are the key findings:
• 95% are open to or supportive of the idea of improving broadband, transit and clean energy infrastructure to help attract companies to invest in Canada.

• Almost as many like the idea of “more space for walking and cycling without fear of vehicles”. This is an agenda item that is gathering momentum in many places in the world and 91% of Canadians would go along with or favour changes of this sort.

• 94% endorse or would go along with efforts to promote Canadian minerals and metals for use in clean technologies and Canadian forest products as low-carbon building and packaging solutions.

• The growing interest in electric vehicles is notable. 85% are open to the idea of using incentives to attract electric vehicle manufacturing to Canada, 88% to a cross-Canada network of fast-charging stations, and 91% are interested in the idea of Canada as the world leader in electric buses.

• When it comes to transit, a majority (53%) would favour and another 30% go along with the idea of making transit ridership free to help reduce traffic congestion and emissions.

• Underlining the fact that many Canadians have been using the Internet a lot more during the pandemic, fully 96% would go along with or favour investments to make broadband internet service ubiquitous. Support for this idea is roughly equal whether described as a way to attract investment and jobs to every part of Canada or a way to ensure equal opportunity for everyone in the country.

• Canadians are also almost unanimously open to ways of making our ports promote lower carbon shipping and promoting hydrogen as a cleaner fuel source for trucking and steel manufacturing.

In short, the results of this survey work underscore that Canadians are open to a broad range of ideas that can help position Canada to attract investment and succeed in an economy of the future that is more oriented towards cleaner economic activity. They are also very interested in ideas that can help strengthen community opportunity and quality of life.

QUOTES
“The pandemic could have made people feel that green infrastructure was not really a practical approach – but these results confirm that the instinct to move in this direction is strong. It’s clearly not just a way to improve the health of the planet, but people see these ideas as a good way to attract new business investment and to make communities more enjoyable and thriving places to live. ”

—Bruce Anderson, Chairman, Abacus Data

“Canadians clearly see that we have a once-in-a-generation opportunity to rebuild a better Canada. Our recovery measures must be resilient. Our future economy must be sustainable. Gone are the days of pitting climate against the economy. Canadians know where real opportunity lies, and we know – now more than ever – just how costly a global crisis can be.”
—Merran Smith, Executive Director, Clean Energy Canada

METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted online with 1,800 Canadian adults from May 14th to 17th, 2020.

A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.31%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Merran Smith and Bruce Anderson are available for interviews.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

Find out more about what we are doing to help clients respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

TORONTO – A national survey of 2,000 Canadian adults conducted for RVezy.com finds that more Canadians are considering going RVing this summer as concerns about COVID-19 change the kind of vacation people are looking for.

ALMOST HALF OF CANADIANS ARE PLANNING TO TAKE OR ARE THINKING ABOUT TAKING A SUMMER VACATION THIS YEAR.

Despite the pandemic, almost half of Canadians are planning to or are still open to taking a summer vacation this year. 17% of Canadians are planning to take a summer vacation this year, while another 27% say they are still thinking about it. The remaining 56% say they are not planning to take a summer vacation.

Canadians under 44 are more likely to be planning or thinking about taking a summer vacation (49%) than older Canadians (40%). Those in BC (52%) and Alberta (54%) are more likely to be planning or thinking about taking a summer vacation than those in Ontario (43%) or Quebec (36%).

When asked why they are not planning a summer vacation this year:
• 62% cite not wanting to venture too far from home because of the pandemic as a major reason.
• 55% cite not being able to take the kind of vacation they like, so they are waiting until they can again.
• 32% cite not being able to afford a summer vacation this year.

CAMPING IN A RV, TRAILER, OR TENT IS CONSIDERED ONE OF THE LEAST RISKY ACTIVITIES TO DO THIS SUMMER.

The survey asked respondents to assess how risky or not different types of activities, attractions, and accommodations are as a summer vacation this year, given the pandemic.

Here is what the survey found:

• 81% felt flying on an airplane for summer vacation is somewhat risky or too risky (56% thought it is too risky).
• 80% felt going to a music festival or outdoor concert is risky, including 55% who thought it is too risky.
• 76% felt going to an amusement park or waterpark is risky, including 49% who thought it is too risky.
• 68% felt staying at a resort as part of a summer vacation is risky, including 36% who thought it is too risky.
• 61% felt staying in a hotel or motel as part of a summer vacation is risky, including 29% who thought it is too risky.

In contrast, far fewer felt going camping in a tent or RV/trailer was risky (35%), while 65% described it as not or only a little risky.

Similarly, risk perception of renting an RV, motorhome, or trailer was much lower as well.

Among those we classify as “RV Curious” Canadians (those who are now more inclined to consider RVing for their vacation), 63% felt there was little to no risk involved in renting an RV, motorhome, or trailer. This group was much more likely to consider staying at a hotel or motel, staying at resort, or flying on a plane as too risky this summer.

GIVEN ALL THIS, MORE CANADIANS THAN EVER ARE CONSIDERING GOING RVING THIS SUMMER.

Many Canadians already enjoy RVing. 10% say they were an “RVer” before the pandemic and still are representing about 3 million Canadians. In our survey, 8% or 2.4 million Canadian adults report owning an RV.

RVers are typically older and more likely to live in rural parts of Canada. They are also more highly concentrated in Western Canada (53% live west of Ontario).

But as fears about COVID-19 linger, the number of “RV Curious” Canadians has grown substantially

• 1 in 3 Canadians (9.9 million) say they “never before thought RVing was right for them, but are now open to it.”
• Another 1 in 5 (5.1 million) say they had considered RVing before and are even more open to it now.

These new RV curious Canadians are younger, more urban, and more likely to live in Ontario than those already engaged in RVing.

CANADIANS BELIEVE RVING IS SAFE, FAMILY-FRIENDLY, AND ALLOWS THEM TO EXPLORE DIFFERENT PARTS OF CANADA.

When asked whether several statements describe RVing as part of a summer vacation well or not:

• 85% believe RVing is family-friendly.
• 82% believe RVing allows them to get away and explore different parts of the country.
• 80% believe RVing allows them to get away and find peace and quiet.
• 77% believe RVing is convenient.
• 61% believe RVing is affordable.

And most important, given the need to distance themselves from others, 78% believe RVing “allows me to distance from other people safely”.

RENTING AN RV MAY BE NEW TO MANY, BUT RVEZY.COM’S SERVICE OFFERING MAKES MANY MORE INCLINED TO RENT AN RV THIS SUMMER.

RVezy is the largest and safest RV rental marketplace in Canada. As part of the survey, we showed respondents several features and services offered by the company to help make renting an RV easier.

When RV Curious Canadians are told about several of these features:

• 83% say they are more likely to rent an RV this summer if they could choose different types of RVs in terms of size, sleeping arrangement, and whether it is a trailer or motorhome.
• 82% say they are more likely to rent an RV this summer if renting an RV through a platform like RVezy will save them up to 40% of the cost of renting through a fleet.
• 81% say they are more likely to rent an RV this summer if the RV could be delivered and set up at the destination, so people don’t have to hitch the trailer to a vehicle.
• 81% say they are more likely to rent an RV this summer if they can see reviews from people who rented the RV before.
• 74% say they are more likely to rent an RV this summer if it comes fully stocked with bedding, games, and camping equipment, so they don’t have to bring any of that with them.

UPSHOT
Summer 2020 may well become the summer of the RV.

As concerns about COVID-19 continue to linger and Canadians look for summer vacation plans that allow them to distance themselves safely while still enabling them to get away, renting an RV is now an option to many who would have never considered it before.

RVezy.com offers RV Curious Canadians precisely what they are looking for: a convenient, safe, and affordable platform to find the perfect RV to take around Canada this summer.

METHODOLOGY
Our survey was conducted online with 2,000 Canadians aged 18 and over from May 19 to 23, 2020. A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

Find out more about what we are doing to help clients respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Our team has been tracking Canadian perceptions and attitudes around the pandemic for more than two months. Last week we released new data on how the pandemic was impacting Canadian politics. Today, we turn our attention to Ontario politics.

In our most recent survey completed last weekend, we interviewed 597 Ontarians and asked them several questions about their views on the provincial government’s performance, on political leaders, and their vote intentions if an election was held at the time of the survey.

 

Here’s a snapshot of what we found:

FINDING #1: 60% of Ontarians approve of the job performance of the Ontario provincial government. 15% disapprove.

FINDING #2: Ontarians rate the government’s performance in most areas positively. But its performance responding to the pandemic, how it has communicated with people, and its handling of the economy get the most positive reviews.

FINDING #3: Premier Ford’s personal image has improved substantially over the past two months. Today, 46% have a positive view compared with 25% negative.

From the end of 2018, throughout 2019, and into early 2020, most Ontarians had a negative impression of Doug Ford with only about 1 in 5 having a positive impression. Since early March, the Premier’s positive ratings have doubled, from 23% to 46% while his negatives have dropped 36-points, from 61% to 25%.

FINDING #4: NDP leader Andrea Horwath has a net positive image while new Liberal leader Steven Del Duca is largely unknown.

FINDING #5: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s personal image is also quite positive in Ontario while Andrew Scheer is viewed negatively by twice as many Ontarians than view him positively.

FINDING #6: The Ontario government’s response to the pandemic is the greatest driver in the government’s overall approval rating.

When we run a regression analysis of the specific policy areas against the Ontario government’s overall approval rating, we find that one’s assessment of the provincial government’s response to the pandemic explains most of the variation in one’s impression of the provincial government’s performance.

In other words, at this moment, Ontarians are rating the government’s overall performance and their views of the Premier through the lens of the pandemic. Its performance in other areas, like education, the economy, climate change, or health care are not major approval drivers.

FINDING #7: Compared with December 2019, the number of accessible voters for the Ontario PC party has increased substantially. Today, 37% say they will definitely or probably vote PC in the next election while another 22% say they would consider voting PC.

Those saying they definitely won’t be voting PC in the next election is down 21-points since December, from 48% to 27%.

FINDING #8: Despite the generally favourable impression of both the provincial government and Premier Ford, the Ontario Liberals and PCs are statistically tied in vote intentions.

If an election were held at the time of this survey, the Del Duca led Liberals would get 38% followed by 36% for Ford’s PCs and 19% for Andrea Horwath’s NDP. Since May 2019, the Liberal vote share is up 11, the PCs are up 7, while the NDP is down 12. The Green vote share is also down by 6 points since last May.

The Liberals lead by a wide margin in Metro Toronto and are tied with the PCs in the Greater Toronto region, and Eastern Ontario. The PCs lead in Southwestern Ontario.

The PCs have an 18-point lead among those aged 60 and over and a 5-point lead among those aged 45 to 59. Among those aged 18 to 44, the Liberals lead the PCs by 20-points, with the PCs and NDP tied for second at around a quarter of the vote. The Liberals lead by 12 over the PCs among women while the PCs have an 8-point lead over the Liberals among men.

UPSHOT

In only two months, Doug Ford’s favourability rating increased by over 20 percentage points. 60% approve of the job performance of his government thanks to an overwhelmingly positive assessment of his government’s response to the pandemic (74% approve). In a matter of months, Ontarians went from really disliking their premier (61% negative) to almost half (46%) feeling quite good about him.

But several factors suggest this lift in his image could change quickly.

First, although evaluations of his government’s performance are generally positive in almost every area we tested, our advanced analysis indicates that Ontarians are evaluating the Premier and his government through a pandemic lens. It is by far the most important driver in predicting whether someone has a positive or negative view of the government or the premier.

Second, despite the government’s 60% approval rating, only 36% of decided respondents would actually vote PC if an election was held at the time of the survey. That suggests that the Premier and the PCs will need to do more than satisfy Ontarians on their handling of the pandemic. Premier Ford will need to also demonstrate that he is not the same guy that 60%+ of Ontarians had a negative view of in early March.

With a new Liberal leader who is largely undefined and unknown and a wilting NDP, the PCs are in a much better position to be re-elected than they were only a few months ago.

Today, 58% of Ontarians would consider voting PC, an increase of 19-percentage points since December 2019.

If nothing else, the pandemic and Premier Ford’s performance to date has caused many Ontarians to re-evaluate him and open their minds to voting for him in the future. And that’s a big change over a short period of time.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

Find out more about what we are doing to help clients respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 597 Ontarians aged 18 and over from May 19 to 22, 2020. A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 4.1%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.