Liberal-NDP deal: By 2 to 1 margin, public thinks it will be good rather than bad for Canada

We recently completed a national survey with a sample of 1,500 Canadian adults from March 22 to 25, 2022. All the interviews were completed after news of the Liberal-NDP confidence and supply agreement was reported.

PUBLIC MOOD & GOVERNMENT APPROVAL

The mood of the country has improved markedly from last month. Today 41% of Canadians think the country is headed in the right direction, up 7 while 43% think it’s off on the wrong track. In contrast, views about the direction of the world continue to shift negatively. Today, only about 1 in 5 Canadians believe the world is headed in the right direction.

Approval of the federal government is steady with 40% approving (+1) and 42% disapproving (-4). Disapproval is down and closer to the average we’ve measured throughout 2021.

Net approval (approve – disapprove) is +5 in BC, -28 in Alberta, -19 in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, +2 in Ontario, -2 in Quebec, and +18 in Atlantic Canada.

THE LIBERAL-NDP AGREEMENT

In a time when many people don’t follow politics closely, the fact that 64% say that they were aware of the arrangement announced this week indicates that it cut through as being something worth paying attention to for many people.

Awareness levels were fairly similar across Canada’s regions – above 60% everywhere but in Atlantic Canada (56%) and Alberta (59%). Older people and those with a university education were more likely to be aware, as were those on the left (73%) and right (71%), compared to the centre (56%).

When asked whether they thought the agreement would be good or bad for Canada, among those aware of the agreement, just under half (48%) felt it would be good for Canada while 27% felt it would be bad. (Of the sample as a whole – including those who were learning about the agreement during the course of completing the interview – 44% felt it would be good for Canada, while 25% felt it would be bad. 17% felt it would make no difference while 15% were unsure.)

Just over half of those on the right think the deal will be bad for Canada, while those on the centre are 39%-22% more likely to think it will be good than bad. On the left opinion runs 5:1 positive.

Positive reactions to the agreement were highest among Liberal voters (74%) and more than half of those who voted NDP in 2021 (55%) felt the agreement would ultimately be good for Canada. Only a small minority of Liberal, NDP, or Green Party voters felt the deal would be bad for Canada. In contrast, a majority of Conservative voters (58%) thought it would be bad for Canada.

Regionally, positive reactions were more likely in BC, Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada than in the Prairies. In Alberta, about equal numbers felt it would be good and bad for Canada overall (33% good vs. 37% bad).

When asked whether the deal would be good or bad for them personally, responses followed a similar pattern with 44% anticipating upside, 25% downsides. Those on the left and centre were more optimistic about the personal impact, while those on the right were more pessimistic. Views didn’t vary all that much by income, indicating so far that the left-right differences have more to do with partisanship than economic class.

The biggest predictor of reaction to the deal was one’s vaccination status. Those who have not received a vaccination were more than twice as likely to think the Liberal-NDP deal would be bad for Canada than those who have received a single dose.

LEADER IMPRESSIONS

Since last month, Justin Trudeau’s personal image has improved somewhat. He enjoys a positive impression among 38% (+3) and negative impressions among 42% (-4), for a net score of –4.

Positive impressions of NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh remained fairly consistent from last month. Today, he enjoys a positive impression among 41% (+2) and finds negative impressions among 28% for a net score of +13.

79% of NDP voters have a positive impression of Mr. Singh as do a half of Liberal voters (52%). 1 in 5 Conservative voters have a positive view of him while 73% of People’s Party voters have a negative view – the highest among any party voter group.

Today, 22% have a positive impression of interim Conservative leader Candice Bergen (+2 since Feb 22) while her negatives are at 30% (-2) for a net score of -8. Mr. O’Toole finished his time as leader with a net favourability of -25.

VOTING INTENTION

If an election were held now, the Conservatives would be marginally ahead of the Liberals but statistically tied with 33% and 31% for the Liberals. Compared with last month, the Conservatives are up 2 while the Liberal vote share is unchanged.

The NDP vote share is down 3-points since last month to 17%, its lowest level since early 2021. The BQ gets 7% nationally (33% in Quebec) followed by the People’s Party at 6% and the Greens at 4%.

• BC: Conservatives are at 32%, and the Liberals at 28% and the NDP at 26%.

• Alberta: 52% would vote Conservative compared with 20% for the NDP, 17% for the Liberal Party, and 6% for the People’s Party.

• Manitoba and Saskatchewan: The Conservatives lead with 53% followed by the NDP at 21%, the Liberals at 14%, and the People’s Party at 9%.

• Ontario: The Liberals lead by 3 over the Conservatives (36% to 33%) with the NDP in third at 17%. The People’s Party is polling at 7% in Ontario. In Toronto and the GTHA (where 58% of the population lives), the Liberals are at 38%, the Conservatives at 35% and the NDP at 16%.

• Quebec: We see the BQ and Liberals basically tied (33% to 32%) with the Conservatives at 19%, the NDP at 8%.

• Atlantic: The Liberals are well ahead of the Conservatives (48% to 27%) with the NDP in third at 18%.

We don’t see much evidence of widespread vote shifting beyond what we normally see. Comparing current vote intention with the reported vote in the 2021 federal election, we find that 91% of Conservative voters would stick with the Conservatives, 86% of Liberal voters would stick with the Liberals, and 81% of NDP voters would stick with the NDP.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “It’s too early to know how the Liberal NDP supply and confidence agreement will ultimately turn out but a few things can be observed in these findings. First, a lot of people noticed it, more than is often the case with political developments in Ottawa. Second, even though roughly half of voters routinely are unhappy with the Liberals, a good number of the unhappy are prepared to think this arrangement might be good or at least won’t be bad for the country or for themselves. There’s something of a suspension of routine and reflexive suspicion and cynicism – perhaps this has to do less with the policy at the heart of the agreement than with the idea of parties agreeing to work together and also to avoid another election. “

According to David Coletto: “

According to David Coletto: “A lot has changed in the past month. When we were last in the field, the trucker occupation in downtown Ottawa was in full gear and Canadians were growing frustrated with both the situation and the Prime Minister’s response. Today, there is a war in Europe and the rising cost of living are clearly top of mind to people. The trucker convoy is now in the rear-view mirror.

Domestically, most Canadians are aware of the supply and confidence agreement between the Liberals and NDP, higher than much of what normally comes out of Ottawa. And the reaction so far is generally positive and splits across partisan lines. By almost a 2 to 1 margin, Canadians feel the deal with be a good rather than bad for Canada. Both Liberal and NDP voters are generally positive about the deal and what it might mean for them or the country at large.

All these changes have led to a slight shift in the opinion environment in Canada. Canadians are feeling more optimistic about the direction of the country, impressions of the Prime Minister have improved slightly, but the Liberals and Conservatives remain deadlocked in current vote intention. We will monitor the NDP’s vote share as the drop from last month is noteworthy and outside the margin of error for the survey.”

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from March 22 to 25, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6% 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian PoliticsCOVID-19MediaPolls

What Do Canadians Think of Canada’s Forest Products Sector?

Everyday, Canadians interact or use products produced by Canada’s forestry sector. Yet, despite this, few really understand how the sector works. That’s not surprising considering that more than 80% of Canadians live in or near a city, far from the managed forests that are the source of so many of the essential products they use every day.

But as the public’s focus on climate change and sustainability sharpen and the pandemic and geo-political events disturb supply chains, understanding what the public knows and doesn’t know about forestry is critical to policy makers, elected officials, and others who want to see Canada’s forestry sector thrive and grow.

Earlier this year, Abacus Data was commissioned by the Forest Products Association of Canada to conduct a national public opinion survey to understand what Canadians know about Canada’s forestry sector and how they feel about it.

Here is what we found:

CANADIANS WANT TO SEE A TRANSITION IN HOW OUR ECONOMY WORKS.

A clear majority of Canadians say it is very important or important to them that we transition the economy and grow green economy jobs, that we help companies and sectors reduce their carbon footprint, and that we meet our 2050 emission targets as set out in the Paris Climate Agreement.

These views colour how most Canadians view industries today, and forestry is not excluded.

POSITIVE IMPRESSIONS OF CANADA’S FORESTRY SECTOR HAVE IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST TWO YEARS AS SECTOR AWARENESS INCREASED.

Today, 46% of Canadians have a positive impression of Canada’s forestry sector while 16% have a negative view. The remaining 39% say they don’t know enough about the sector to have an opinion. The reputation of the sector has improved markedly over the past two years with positive opinion increasing by 8-points since last year and 14-points since 2020.

Impressions of the sector don’t vary much by region or demographic group. At least 41% of Canadians living in every region of the country have a positive impression of the sector with those in BC (53%), Alberta (51%), and Atlantic Canada (47%) being more likely to have a positive impression.

We also don’t see much variation across the political spectrum. Views about the forestry sector are fairly consistent among those who would vote Liberal, Conservative, BQ or the People’s Party of Canada. NDP supporters are less likely to have a favourable view of the industry – but more have a positive view (38%) than a negative one (27%).

At the same time, when asked whether their impressions of the industry are getting better, getting worse, or not really changing, 30% of Canadians report their views of forestry getting better compared with 22% who say their views are getting worse. This is the best net favourable score (+8) that we have measured since 2018.

When asked to rate the industry’s performance on several measures, most Canadians feel the industry is doing well or acceptably on all, including:

  • 75% who think the sector does well or acceptably “providing Canadians with essential and environmentally friendly products”.
  • 72% who think the sector does well or acceptably “responsibly producing paper and lumber products”.
  • 68% who think the sector does well or acceptably “sustainably managing our forests”.
  • 61% who think the sector does well or acceptably “mitigating the impacts of climate change”.
  • 56% who think the sector does well or acceptably “partnering with Indigenous communities”.

PERCEIVED UNDERSTANDING OF THE FORESTRY SECTOR HAS INCREASED, AS HAS KNOWLEDGE ABOUT SPECIFIC FACTS ABOUT THE INDUSTRY.

Today, 80% of Canadians say they have at least a limited understanding of the forestry sector, an 8-point increase from 2021 and a 11-point increase from 2020. While few Canadians say they have a really good understanding of how the forestry sector in Canada works, perceived understanding across all categories has grown. Overall, 36% say they have either a really good understanding or a pretty good understanding of how the sector operates.

Among those who feel they know more about the sector, 72% have a positive impression of it, 18% negative, while 11% say they don’t know enough to have an opinion. Clearly as more people become aware of the industry, impressions improve.

The survey also explored whether Canadians were aware of certain facts about forestry in Canada, and if they were not aware, whether the information surprised them. Across all items, we see an increase in awareness of 3 to 6-percentage points from the 2021 survey, but awareness about the industry remains quite low. For example:

  • 62% are aware that “by law, foresters are required to replant and replace what they cut down or harvest” up 5-points since 2021.
  • Only 28% were aware that Canada leads the world in third-party certification, with more than two times the number of certified forests than any other country.”
  • Only 26% were aware that “when we build with wood, construction can be completed 25% faster, reducing carbon pollution during construction by 25% to 45%.”
  • Only 24% were aware that “Canada has retained more than 90% of its original forest cover.”
  • Only 23% were aware that “by building with wood, we can increase the amount of carbon stored in cities to a level that equals some of the most carbon-rich forests on the planet.”

MOST CANADIANS THINK CANADA IS NOT A WORLD LEADER WHEN IT COMES TO HOW IT MANAGES ITS FOREST.

Despite the growing awareness of how forestry in Canada works and the generally positive impression Canadians have of the sector, most Canadians aren’t ready to say that Canada is a world leader when it comes to how it manages its forests. Today, 31% think Canada is a world leader (up 3 points since last year), while 60% think Canada is about average, and 9% think Canada is below average.

UPSHOT

Over a short period of time, impressions of Canada’s forestry sector have improved substantially. Today, more Canadians have a positive impression of the sector, more say they have at least a limited understanding of how it works, and more aware of some key facts about it. Despite this, most remain unconvinced that Canada is a global leader in how it manages it forests – despite clear evidence to the contrary.

While these polling results are positive, they aren’t surprising. At a time when the next generation of Canadians are looking for renewable and sustainable answers to economic questions, Canada’s forestry sector stands out because of its considerable potential.

As the public’s concern about climate change and sustainable grows, so too will its demand for sustainable building materials. Canada’s forest products sector is well positioned to respond. I suspect its reputation will continue to improve as more Canadians learn about what the sector is doing to meet the climate crisis head-on.

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 2,000 Canadians aged 18 and over from February 23 to March 1, 2022. A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.%, 19 times out of 20.  The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

The survey was paid for by the Forest Products Association of Canada.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

MediaPolls

Do Canadians Still Watch Awards Shows?

Final voting for the Oscars kicks off today (March 17, 2022) and runs for just six days before ending on the 22nd. As the 94th annual Academy Awards (scheduled for Sunday, March 27th) quickly approaches, we were eager to explore just how many Canadians will be tuning in.

We conducted a national survey of 2,100 Canadians between January 18th and 20th in which we asked about their viewing habits and preferences regarding awards shows.

To begin, we find a majority of Canadians (59%) not really watching awards shows, with 57% indicating that they have been watching less often over the past few years.

This is most common among Francophone Canadians (66%) and residents of Quebec (65%), hinting that the language of the program may be presenting itself as a barrier to these individuals. Furthermore, 63% of those 60 and older and 61% of female Canadians are watching awards shows less often. Interestingly, 10% of those between the ages of 18-29 indicated that they watch every single awards show, with the same percent also stating that they have watched more often over the past few years. But how often will Canadians be viewing in the future?

Well, 49% of Canadians indicated that they will be watching awards shows less often in the future, while 45% will be watching just as often and 6% will be watching more often. Those who are most likely to be tuning in less often in the future include those 60 and older (55%), and those living in Atlantic Canada (61%). On the other hand, 14% of those between the ages of 18 and 29 stated that they will be watching more often.

Reasons for watching less in the future include a lack of interest, lack of enjoyment, and concerns regarding politics and the nomination/voting process. A majority (56%) of those who indicated that they would be watching awards shows less often in the future feel this way due to a lack of interest. This is most common among Quebec residents (67%) and Francophone Canadians (68%).

We also wanted to take a look at the different elements to awards shows and how important they are to Canadians. While all aspects tested were deemed at least moderately important by a majority of Canadians, the performances (92%), special awards (90%), and regular awards (90%) were deemed the most important. This was closely followed by speeches (77%) and the red carpet (70%).

The recent 2022 Golden Globe Awards took place in a privately held ceremony with the winners announced via its social media platforms and press releases. When asked how they would feel about this format being used in the future, 43% of Canadians revealed that they did not like this model. This was most common among those between the ages of 18 and 29 (33%), and those who indicated watching every single awards show (25%). Interestingly, those from Atlantic Canada were among the most likely to like this model a lot (20%).

METHODOLOGY

This survey was conducted with n=2,100 from January 18th to 20th, 2022. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.14%, 19 times out of 20

The survey was conducted using a random sample of panelists invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The data was weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

MediaPolls

Canadian Support for Ukraine Assistance Growing in Light of Russian Invasion

Canadians have been closely following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with 7 in 10 outright in support of Canadian assistance to Ukraine’s defense efforts today and only 1 in 10 opposed. This represents a significant shift from support recorded in January of this year.

We also find a fairly clear consensus on Ukraine assistance. It is cross partisan and spans geography

RUSSIAN INSTIGATION WELL UNDERSTOOD

Most Canadians’ understanding of the war is that Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded to expand Russia’s power. Few believe Russia’s stated goal of trying to protect innocent people in Ukraine from persecution or genocide is the cause of the invasion.

Canadians are aligned on Russia’s responsibility for the conflict, with only some marginal, soft agreement that the US or Ukraine hold some responsibility for the war.

STRONG SUPPORT FOR ECONOMIC SANCTIONS, ASSET SEIZURE & LARGE-SCALE AID EFFORTS

In looking to understand public support dynamics, we tested several simple policy ideas, some of which have been pursued in one form or another since we began fielding our survey.

We find widespread public appetite for the Canadian government enforcing economic measures like banning the import and use of Russian goods and services, or the banning of Canadian exports to Russia.

Most Canadians specifically support a Canadian import ban on the use of Russian oil and associated petroleum products. Few see a downside to trade-specific sanctions. Most Canadians also feel uncomfortable purchasing Russian products today, and few agree that sanctions should be avoided due to their detrimental impact on everyday Russians.

There is likewise clear popular support for seizing the assets of Russian oligarchs in Canada, and intaking displaced Ukrainian refugees into Canada on at least a temporary basis. Beyond those consensus points, a clear majority of Canadians either accept or outright support:

  • Spending significant government resources on humanitarian, economic, and military equipment aid to Ukraine.
  • Expelling Russian diplomats from Canada and cutting off diplomatic relations.
  • Allowing all Ukrainians displaced by the war to stay in Canada permanently.

CANADIANS SEE DEVASTATING IMPACT ON CIVILIANS; THINK WORST IS YET TO COME

In asking the public to assess whether or not a series of statements about the war are true or false, we find that Canadians understand that this is not merely a war between armed groups relegated to disputed border areas, but that Russian forces are actively engaging in a full-scale invasion, committing war crimes and causing mass civilian casualties.

And despite these tragic outcomes, most believe that Russia is yet holding back releasing the full might of its forces.

There is less consensus on how strong or effective Ukraine’s defense has been and how long it will hold, with most assuming Russia has made important strategic gains in Ukraine.

Few Canadians are comfortable with Ukraine folding for the sake of wider peace, with only 1 in 4 agreeing that Russia effectively conquering Ukraine is preferable if it avoids a bigger war between Russia and the west. At the same time, Canadians appreciate that western involvement in the Russian war on Ukraine risks starting a nuclear conflict.

PUBLIC PREFERENCE FOR A NO-FLY ZONE; MANY SEE SCENARIO FOR CDN BOOTS ON GROUND

Despite this, most Canadians would opt for enforcing a no-fly zone. Mindful to stress the consequences of NATO enforcement, we framed a no-fly zone tradeoff as:

“Some people say that NATO should institute a no-fly zone over Ukraine in order to safeguard Ukrainians from Russian air attacks.

Others say the risk is too great and that NATO should not institute a no-fly zone, as enforcement would inevitably lead to a direct conflict between NATO & Russia, resulting in an even greater war.

Which is closer to your view?”

2 in 3 Canadians support NATO enforcing a no-fly zone over Ukraine even at the risk of provoking a greater conflict between NATO and Russia. Even Canadians who believe nuclear war is a risk in this conflict support the no-fly zone, suggesting the trade-offs of a no-fly zone are well appreciated by the Canadian public.

When might Canadians find sending Canadian soldiers into Ukraine in a combat role against Russia appropriate?

7 in 10 would be willing to support sending in the Canadian Forces in some circumstances, particularly if Russia moved beyond Ukraine and into a NATO country, or if our NATO allies were already planning to move in their own troops. Many would also support this direct intervention should nuclear weapons be used in Ukraine, or once all other measures taken prove to be insufficient in deterring Russia.

Despite a strong desire to do more, the vast majority of Canadians feel the Government of Canada has at least been doing as well as can be expected on measures to pressure Russia to stop its aggression. Canadians particularly assign high marks to their government’s work on sanctions, collaboration with allies, and humanitarian assistance.  Few think the federal government has done a poor job on any item we asked about.

MOST STILL OPTIMISTIC ABOUT OUTCOME

At this time, the Canadian public remains optimistic about the outcome of the war. They believe that either Russia will take Ukraine in the short term but will inevitably exit in the long term, or that Russia will be stopped from its conquest by the international response. There is less consensus on what happens to Vladimir Putin.  Half believe 2 years from now, Putin will continue to be President of Russia, while half believe Putin will be removed from office.

THE UPSHOT

The Government of Canada has clear, national and cross-partisan public support to pursue an aggressive pro-Ukraine foreign policy in the context of Russia’s invasion. Support was substantial before the Russian invasion and has only grown since.

Some response measures that seemed unthinkable two weeks ago now feel inevitable, as the conflict continues to rage with few signs of subsiding. Undaunted by the hypothetical risk of greater escalation or nuclear war, the vast majority of Canadians just want to help. They support NATO enforcing a no-fly zone, greater military and humanitarian aid, and have a deep and widespread willingness to welcome displaced Ukrainians to Canada. Most can even see scenarios in which they would support Canadian military on the ground in Ukraine.

This change in tune is a clear response to the atrocities we’ve seen Russia committing against civilians and the unjust nature of the Russian invasion. Canadians understand this war is the result of a cynical and malicious power grab and want both Canada and its allies to respond accordingly.

METHODOLOGY

This survey was conducted with 1,464 Canadian adults from March 4 to 8, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

MediaPolls

Conservative Leadership Campaign: Initial impressions of declared/potential candidates

We were in the field at the end of February (Feb 23-Mar 1) and asked Canadians their impression of four declared/possible Conservative Party leadership candidates.

Jean Charest would start the race with higher name recognition than Poilievre and about similar favourables nationally (gen pop). Patrick Brown is much less known, especially outside Ontario.

Among those who would vote Conservative today, Poilievre is viewed far more favourably than Charest. Poilievre has a +22 favourable score compared with -3 for Charest.

Charest’s Quebec numbers are much different than the rest of the country. Most know him but almost half have a negative impression.

Poilievre’s numbers are fairly consistent across the country although only 8% positive in Quebec. But his strength is his connection and positive impression with current and potential CPC voters.

Patrick Brown is much more well known in Ontario (not surprising) but his net score is 0 there. He has net positives with both potential and current CPC supporters.

Obviously, this is a snapshot from a week ago and after Charest’s launch on Thursday, these numbers could move.

But he faces two big challenges in my view:

1. Poilievre is more known and liked among the CPC voter base (which is not the same thing as the membership).

2. His high negatives in Quebec could be a challenge if he’s going to rely on the province to sign up members and challenge Poilievre.

UPSHOT

Given Poilievre’s popularity with CPC voters, I suspect his numbers are even stronger among CPC members giving him a big head start. Charest has a lot of work to do to win this.

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 2,000 Canadian adults from February 23 to March 1, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian PoliticsCOVID-19MediaPolls

Almost 80% Of Canadians Open to Owning an Electric Vehicle

In the latest round of survey work by Clean Energy Canada and Abacus Data, only 21% of Canadian adults think they “probably never will” own an electric vehicle.  At the other end of the spectrum, 19% (the equivalent of more than 5 million people) say they love the idea of owning one, and another 31% are interested in considering one.

Most Canadians (63%) would prefer to see electric cars become the majority of cars consumers drive. Fully 80% think it is likely that electric vehicles will reach that level of acceptance. Half of those surveyed think this will happen within the next 15 years.

Personal interest in purchasing an electric vehicle remains robust with 58% indicating that they are certain, inclined or likely to make their next car electric.  Majorities think electric vehicles are better for the environment and offer lower fueling costs, while combustion engines are cheaper to own or lease and more convenient for refueling. Opinion is divided on maintenance costs.

About 1 in 10 people say they have a car that runs on electricity today and of those half are elated with the experience and a total of 93% are happy with the choice.

Seventy two percent (72%) think Canada should take steps to attract manufacturers of electric vehicles here, which is up five points since November 2020. And three out of four people support the use of government subsidies to help encourage consumers to buy electric vehicles.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson, Chairman of Abacus Data: “Canadians want electric cars, they want the country to manufacture electric cars and they want to see government policy support both the affordability of those cars and help attract investment into electric vehicle manufacturing.  As more people are exposed to a wider range and ideally more affordable options, all signs are that this trend is going to gather momentum in the years to come.”

According to Joanna Kyriazis, Clean Energy Canada’s transportation program manager: “Electric vehicles can be seen everywhere these days—on roads, in Super Bowl ads. After all, one’s concern for climate change is hardly the only reason to upgrade. Electric vehicles are far cheaper to fuel, quicker to accelerate, and often technologically ahead of the curve. Gone are the days when driving a Nissan Leaf or a Tesla said something about you. In 2022, it’s just a good car.”

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from January 20 to 25th, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian PoliticsMediaPolls

Economic anxiety and public policy: A guide to understanding your audiences today for business, policy, and political leaders


I’ve been thinking a lot about the occupation/protests in Ottawa. Our team has done a lot of work examining public reactions to these protests and surrounding views on the pandemic and restrictions/protections. I have also been inspired by work and insights by colleagues and others to understand the dynamics of public opinion and its impact on political behaviour.

And I think decisions about business, investing, and public policy in the future will depend upon having a really good understanding of the opinion landscape.

This is especially true for those who lead organizations in business, labour, media, and government. As I’ll show you, you probably don’t see the world in the same way as everyone else. You are more likely to be a member of the “progressive professionals” described below. Checking that bias at the door and truly understanding what drives the other groups is essential to making good decisions and building concensus.

Here are the key takeaways (if you don’t want or can’t keep reading):

1. I think my analysis helps explain A LOT of our politics today and the increasing alienation between those who influence decisions – business, policy, and media – and those who consume those decisions.

2. It shows that we cannot assume a candidate like Pierre Poilievre or Donald Trump cannot find widespread support in Canada. There are a lot of people feeling anxious about their future – who don’t see themselves represented in the decision-making levels of our country.

3. Most folks who are anxious look at business executives, journalists, policymakers, and others and see people who don’t view the world through the same lens. They feel threatened and anxious while folks like you likely see mostly opportunities. They think the system is rigged against them and you don’t quite understand why they feel that way.

If you’re a member of that “progressive professional” group I describe before (I think I am BTW), then you have to ask yourself whether we are a big part of the problem.

4. And if we are, how can we reconnect with these other audiences?

How do we reflect their worlds? How do we serve them better in the products and services we market to them? How do we design public policies that improves their lives? And how do we communicate those policy decisions so they accept and not reject them?

5. In developing public affairs, communications, or business strategies, ask yourself what motivates these four groups that I’ve identified in this guide.

What keeps them up at night?
Who do they trust?
What do they aspire to achieve?

This is a big focus of my work as a social researcher and if you think me or my team at Abacus Data can help, reach out and let’s chat. But now, for the evidence that supports these takeways.

THE EVIDENCE

In preparing for a briefing for a client on tax fairness, affordability, and public policy in Canada, I went back to a survey we did for the Professional Institute of the Public Sector of Canada and the Broadbent Institute last July 2021.

A lot of the same concerns I see today in polling existed then. There are deep public concerns about the pandemic, the rising cost of living, wealth and income inequality, and the future of the economy.

In fact, 90% of Canadians ranked a pocketbook issue as a top issue that was going to impact their vote in the election we had only a few months later.

Using this data, I’ve been working on a segmentation or classification system that I think helps explain our politics today. Think of it as a guide to understand your Canadian audiences today for business, policy, and political leaders

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It identifies four key groups…defined by their level of economic anxiety and views on public policy

They are:

Secure middle (39% of population)
Anxious progressives (27%)
Anxious conservatives (21%)
Professional progressives (13%)

I’ll focus most on a group I call the “professional progressives“.

Why? Because most of my clients are in this group. I think I’m in this group. And most important, those in this group make up most of the business, media, & policy universe in Canada. They make decisions that the rest have to consumer or follow.

They have the most influence on policy, the economy, and media coverage. But have quite different views & perceptions

Let me share a few of the key findings from this analysis. Let’s start with their economic anxiety.

Here’s how they have been feeling about money over the past two years. Clearly, the anxious groups are MORE anxious. Note, 44% of progressive professionals have been LESS stressed about money over the pandemic.

Here’s how they feel about income differences between the 1% and themselves over the past 2 years. Again, quite different views between the anxious groups, the secure middle, and the progressive pros

What about perceptions about Canada’s tax system?

Anxious on both the left and right think the tax system is unfair (AKA rigged) but only 43% of progressive professionals think the same thing.

Beyond economic anxiety and perceptions, we also see big differences in how these groups perceive the effectiveness and role of government.
85% of progressive professionals think the government is good. Everyone else is less convinced.

We see the same kind of divides on the role of regulation. Most think regulation is good, but almost all progressives think it is. There’s a big difference with anxious conservatives on this.


This is an IMPORTANT one. 87% of progressive professionals see more opportunities than threats in the future economy.
Majorities in other groups see the opposite – they see threats.


Most groups agree on the role of immigrants. This is an area where anxious progressives and conservatives differ sharply.

So far I’ve shown the wide gaps between progressive professionals and most other groups in Canada.✔️They fundamentally see the world differently.

✔️They see opportunity when others see threats.

✔️They see government as good when others are skeptical.

How do these groups vote?

Well as you can see, not that similar.

Anxious conservatives would vote overwhelmingly for the Conservative Party.
Anxious progressives split between the Liberals and NDP.
Secure Middle split between Liberals and Conservatives.
Progressive professionals would vote overwhelmingly for the Liberal Party

More important, it’s not who they voted for, but WHY they voted for the party they did.

I suspect that the reasons why those in the secure middle or anxious progressive groups voted Liberal are different than those in the progressive professional group. Less about political correctness, identity, and cosmopolitanism and more about economic equity, affordability issues, and part rejection of the Conservative brand of politics.

So who are in these groups?

We find a fairly even distribution by age. Anxious folks are a bit older while progressive professionals tend to be younger.

Progressive professionals have the highest household incomes, but what matters more, in my view, is education. 18% have a post-graduate degree. Much higher than any other group.

Professional progressives are more likely to live in cities whereas everyone else is more distributed across urban, suburban, and rural communities.

Progressive professionals are more concentrated in Quebec and Ontario whereas everyone else is more evenly distributed.

Although there’s a high concentration of anxious conservatives in the Prairies.

Finally, how do they self-identify on the political spectrum?

Pretty close, but not perfectly to how their views/perceptions sort them.

Note, 18% of “progressive professionals” self-ID as on the right of the political spectrum. I suspect these are many of the folks hoping that Jean Charest runs for CPC leader.

So what does all this mean?

Well first, I think this helps explain A LOT of our politics today and the increasing alienation between those who influence decisions – business, policy, and media – and those who consume those decisions.

Second, I think it shows that we cannot assume a candidate like Pierre Poilievre can’t find widespread support in Canada. There are a lot of people feeling anxious about their future – who don’t see themselves represented in the elite levels of our country.

They look at business executives, journalists, policymakers, and others and see people who don’t view the world through the same lens. They feel threatened and anxious while others see opportunities.

They think the system is rigged against them.

If you’re a member of that “progressive professional” group I described (I think I am), then you have to ask yourself whether we are a big part of the problem.

And if we are, how can we reconnect with these other audiences?

How do we reflect their worlds? How do we serve them better in the products and services we market to them? How do we design public policies that improve their lives? And how do we communicate those policy decisions so they accept and not reject them?

In developing public affairs, communications, or business strategies, ask yourself what motivates these four groups that I’ve identified in this guide.

What keeps them up at night?
Who do they trust?
What do they aspire to achieve?

This is a big focus of my work as a social researcher and if you think me or my team at Abacus Data can help, reach out and let’s chat. Oh, and please sign up for our weekly newsletter below.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian PoliticsCOVID-19MediaPollsTechnologyWorkplace

Burnout Nation?

As 2021 came to an end, we were noticing that our colleagues, friends, clients, and family members were increasingly telling us they were feeling burned out.

We wondered whether this was simply anecdotal, or more widespread, so we asked a series of questions of working Canadians about how they were feeling overall and about work specifically. Turns out burnout is sweeping the country. Canada is a burned out nation.

One in Three Employed Canadians Say They are Burned Out

At present, 34% of those working right now are feeling burned out. Feelings of burnout are higher among young people. More than half of those 18 to 29 say they are feeling burned out. This is more than twice as likely than older working Canadians.

We know that the pandemic has had disproportionate impacts on younger Canadians. They have had to delay key milestones and have been more likely to have experienced unemployment or underemployment over the past two years.

Not all industries are experiencing burnout equally. Five sectors report much higher levels of burnout than others. Notably, these include technology, not-for-profits, health care and education as well as the hospitality sector and personal services. In contrast, those in manufacturing, logistics and construction are much less likely to be feeling burned out.

For some, burnout is a constant state, just over 1 in 10 workers report feeling burned out “all the time”. Another 33% feel burned out sometimes. Even among those who don’t feel burned out right at this moment, 30% felt burned out at least once over the past 12 months.

What does burnout look like when it comes to the workplace?

One element is clearly exhaustion. For example, consider the statement, “There are days when I feel tired before I arrive at work.” While 7 in 10 agree at least somewhat with this statement, 90% of those who are burned out feel this way.

Burned out people start their workday tired, drained, and exhausted, even before they tackle any of the items on their to-do list.

But it’s not just exhaustion, burnout is also about disengagement. Here we see that while most working Canadians agree that they always find new and interesting things in their work, those who are feeling burnout are less likely to feel this way. Among those who report being burned out, only about half say agree they always find new and interesting aspects in their work, 24-points less likely than those who report not being burned out. Note that the differences by age group disappear when it comes to finding new and interesting aspects of work.

But the differentiation by age group reappears when we talk about actual engagement at work. Six in ten say that they tend to think less at work and do their job almost mechanically. Those who are younger and those feeling burned out are more likely to agree with this statement.

Burnout and Happiness

Burnout at work seeps into the rest of our lives. Using our Happiness Monitor score, we can see that those who are burned out also report being much less happy than those who are not feeling burned out by more than 20 points. This is a huge difference in perceived happiness between the two groups.

Burnout and Social Cohesion

There is good reason to believe that burnout is not good for Canada’s social cohesion. When we are exhausted and disengaged, we are probably not at our best and that includes our relationships and communities more broadly.

Consider a question we often ask about trust in other people. Overall working Canadians slightly favour the view that you can’t be too careful when it comes to other people. But when we look at those who are feeling burned out, the results tip even further in the direction of wariness of other people.

UPSHOT

If you walk down a street, it’s likely that 3 out of every 10 people you see are feeling burned out right now and more than half have experienced burn out in the past year.

Burnout impacts the quality of our work, how engaged we are with our colleagues, and can impact our relationships outside of work. It makes us impatient, careless, and cranky. Beyond our personal and professional lives, it can also impact our political opinions and how we feel about brands we interact with.

What is most troubling is the high levels of burnout among younger workers. No wonder that so many of them are searching for something as more when half of them tell us they are feeling burned out.

The high level of burnout among those in certain sectors also will present a serious problem for the recovery from the pandemic. Reported burnout among those working in healthcare and education is not surprising given the stress they have been under throughout the pandemic, but what happens if they can’t recover? If these numbers persist, we can expect even more challenging labour shortages in these sectors.

Leaders, recruiters, HR professionals, marketers, communicators, and policy makers should consider this data when thinking about how to engage and communicate with audiences that contain about 1 in 3 who feel burned out, tired all the time, and disengaged.

Do you know if your teams are burned out? If not, we can help and compare your team with the national average in your sector. Send our Vice President of Sales and Marketing, Yvonne Langen, a quick email today and we can connect

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted online with 2,100 Canadian adults from January 18 to 21, 2022 including 1201 working Canadians. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.14%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ottawa’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

The survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

COVID-19MediaPollsWorkplace

Emergency measures: Government approval holds as Liberals and Conservatives deadlocked

We recently completed a national survey with a larger than normal sample size of 5,200 Canadian adults completed from February 17 to 22, 2022. Here is what we found:

PUBLIC MOOD & GOVERNMENT APPROVAL

The mood of the country is unchanged from our last reading, with 34% feeling the country is headed in the right direction and 52% thinking it’s on the wrong track.

Approval of the federal government has also held steady with 39% approving and 46% disapproving. Disapproval is almost exactly what it was two weeks ago but is still higher than it has been for all of 2020 and 2021. Net approval is 0 in BC, -22 in Alberta, -20 in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, -2 in Ontario, -11 in Quebec and -14 in Atlantic Canada.

Net approval among 2021 Liberal voters is +65, -67 among Conservative voters, and -15 among NDP voters. Among those who are fully vaccinated with a booster, the net approval rating for the federal government is +3, it is -8 among those with 2 shots and no booster, while among those who are not fully vaccinated, the government’s net approval is -53.

INVOKING THE EMERGENCIES ACT

We find significantly more support (57%) than opposition (30%) for the federal government’s decision to invoke the Emergencies Act. Support is a lot higher than opposition among Liberal voters (79%-13%) NDP voters (63%-23%), and BQ voters (59%-32%). Conservative voters are more split, with 40% supporting the move, and 50% opposing.

A majority in every region of the country supports invoking the Emergencies Act including 62% in BC, 53% in Alberta, 53% in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, 58% in Ontario, 53% in Quebec, and 52% in Atlantic Canada.

We saw no evidence that support for the Emergencies Act being invoked fluctuated over the six days of polling.

LEADER IMPRESSIONS

Justin Trudeau enjoys a positive impression among 35% and negative impressions among 46%, for a net score of – 11. This is largely unchanged from earlier this month. We are writing a more detailed essay on Mr. Trudeau’s image over his years in the public eye in Ottawa.

Today, 20% have a positive impression of interim Conservative leader Candice Bergen (+2 since Feb 8) while her negatives are at 32% (+4) for a net score of -12. Mr. O’Toole finished his time as leader with a net favourability of -25.

Jagmeet Singh enjoys a positive impression among 39% and finds negative impressions among 26% for a net score of +13, similar to our results earlier this month.

In Quebec, BQ Leader Mr. Blanchet is 36% positive and 31% negative for a net score of +5. Mr. Trudeau is -14 in Quebec, Ms. Bergen is -23.

ACCESSIBLE VOTER POOLS

Today, 50% would consider voting Liberal, 46% NDP, and 41% Conservative, largely unchanged from earlier this month although the NDP accessible voter pool is down 3.
27% would consider voting Green, 20% would consider voting for the People’s Party while 41% would consider voting BQ in Quebec.

VOTING INTENTION

If an election were held now, the Liberals and Conservatives would be deadlocked at 31% each with the NDP at 20%, the BQ at 8%, and the People’s Party at 6%. The Greens would earn 3% of the vote. Compared with the 2021 election, the Liberals are down 2, the Conservatives are down 3, and the NDP is up 2.

• BC: Liberals are at 33%, the Conservatives at 30% and the NDP at 28%. The Liberals lead by 8 over the Conservatives in Metro Vancouver but are third on Vancouver Island and in the Interior.

• Alberta: 49% would vote Conservative compared with 21% for the NDP, 21% for the Liberal Party, and 7% for the People’s Party. In Edmonton, the Conservatives are at 44% followed by the NDP at 26% and the Liberals at 23%. In Calgary, the Conservatives are at 50% with the Liberals at 22% and the NDP at 21%.

• Manitoba and Saskatchewan: The Conservatives lead with 39% followed by the NDP at 26%, the Liberals at 22%, and the People’s Party at 7%.

• Ontario: The Liberals lead by 3 over the Conservatives (35% to 32%) with the NDP in third at 22%. The People’s Party is polling at 7% in Ontario. The Liberals lead the Conservatives by 12 in Toronto, 8 in the GTHA, while the Conservatives are ahead in the Southwest region of the province 34% to 27%.

• Quebec: We see the BQ ahead of the Liberals (38% to 30%) with the Conservatives at 20%, the NDP at 8%.

• Atlantic: The Conservatives and Liberals are tied (32% to 31%) with the NDP at 24%.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson:“

The high-profile blockades and occupation of Ottawa, the continuation of the pandemic, and the invocation of the Emergencies Act are not conditions one would expect to see strengthening Liberal Party support – it’s probably more remarkable that Mr. Trudeau’s party has remained as competitive as it has.  Voters aren’t elated about the situation in Canada, but they continue to see worse conditions elsewhere, and their frustration level with the federal incumbents is holding pretty steady, for the moment.  The Emergencies Act was not an unpopular choice, and may have more of an effect in dividing Conservatives than drawing voters to their position.”

According to David Coletto: “

After two more weeks of occupations, blockades, and the invocation of the Emergencies Act, views of the federal government and the Prime Minister have remained fairly steady after a negative turn earlier this month. Negative views of the Prime Minister have hit a 24-month high. We haven’t seen almost half the country hold a negative impression since the middle of the SNC-Lavalin controversy.

At the same time, negative impressions of Conservative leader Candice Bergen have increased suggesting that no political leader or party has benefited from this tumultuous period in Canadian politics so far.

The Liberals and Conservatives are deadlocked nationally. None of the major parties have seen their accessible voter pools increase over this period and while the Prime Minister’s negatives have increased, a plurality doesn’t believe he should step down because of the blockades and protests that happened across Canada.

What we do see, however, is a strengthening of the relationship between vaccination status and political opinion. If only those who are fully vaccinated with a booster (58% of the population) voted, the Liberals would likely win a majority government (LPC 35%, CPC 29%, NDP 22%). If only those not vaccinated (1 or no shots) voted, the Conservatives easily win a majority (CPC 38%, PPC 21%, LPC 13%, NDP 13%).”

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 5,200 Canadian adults from February 17 to 22, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.4%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian PoliticsCOVID-19MediaPolls

One Quarter of Canadians Experiencing Deteriorating Relationships Due to a Difference of Opinion Regarding COVID-19

As our data from last week showed, the so-called freedom convoy has been a polarizing issue for Canadians. As tensions continue to run high here in Ottawa and elsewhere across the country, we wanted to dig deeper to explore how the pandemic and subsequent public health mandates have changed how we relate to our friends, colleagues, and families.

Our latest survey finds half of us hold a different view on measures/actions taken relating to the COVID-19 pandemic than someone close to us. This is most common among younger Canadians (those aged 18-29), Alberta residents, and those who support the freedom convoy. But who are these disagreements between? And are some more likely to end in a failed relationship than others?

Well, our data indicates that differences in opinion are most often seen between family members or friends. Conflicting opinions are much less common among colleagues, spouses/partners/significant others, and even rarer between employee and employer.

About 1 in 4 Canadians have had a relationship deteriorate because of these differing opinions related to the safety measures, mandates, and restrictions brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic.

For those who’ve experienced differing opinions with a colleague or friend- over half say they’ve had a relationship deteriorate due to these differing views.

All in, the average Canadian whose relationship(s) have been impacted because of their differing views on the pandemic and pandemic related measures has seen three relationships deteriorate.

Still, some views appear to be more conflicting than others. Those who are skeptical about the measures taken to reduce the spread of COVID-19 (mask mandates, travel restrictions, vaccine mandates, etc.) have seen more relationships deteriorate than those who support these measures. However, this may be due to the fact that those who are pro-vaccine account for a large majority of the population, and are therefore likely to encounter far fewer individuals whose opinions regarding COVID-19 differ from their own.

UPSHOT:

According to Michael Monopoli: “As tensions regarding COVID-19 continue to run high across the nation, relationships are feeling an added strain. With last week’s data showing that the convoy in Ottawa is proving to be quite the polarizing topic among Canadians, many may be struggling to empathize with those around them.

It seems the widespread social, economic and health consequences of the pandemic have just created more topics to hold differing opinions on. And, while differing opinions may be nothing new for Canadians, it the pandemic has led many to re-evaluate the values they want to share with those around them.”

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1500 Canadian adults from February 9 to 13, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.

The data was weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

COVID-19MediaPolls