The controversy about the WE Charity has eroded Liberal support, including among one in five who voted for a Liberal candidate only months ago.

An election today would see the Liberals (34%) with a 4-point margin over the Conservatives (30%) and the NDP further back with 17%. The regional patterns in the most populous provinces show the BQ and Liberals statistically tied (33% to 32%) in Quebec, a tie between the Liberals and Conservatives in Ontario (36% to 35%), and a 12-point Liberal lead in BC. In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals lead by 19-points. The Liberals could win re-election based on these numbers but their lead has been significantly diminished in a short period of time.

Other indicators confirm that the We Charity matter is creating scar tissue for the incumbents.

Approval of the government is down 4-points in 10 days, and 14-points since May. Negative opinion about Mr. Trudeau is up 5-points over the same period, and up 11-points since May. For the first time in months, more people have a negative view of the Prime Minister than a positive one.

Across the country, 44% would like to see a new Liberal leader before the next election, while 30% would prefer to see Mr. Trudeau continue, and 26% aren’t sure at this point. Among those who voted Liberal last November, 65% would like to Mr. Trudeau lead the party in the next election, while 17% would prefer someone else, and 18% are unsure.

THE WE CHARITY CONTROVERSY

Just about half of those surveyed (48%) say they have been following the WE matter very or pretty closely, largely unchanged from our last survey earlier this month. Overall awareness of the issue has increased though with only 14% reporting being unaware of it at all (down 5 points since July 16).

Of those aware of the WE issue, 14% believe the government has handled this situation well, 31% say it’s been handled “ok” and 55% say the government has done a poor job. More than one in three Liberal 2019 voters feel the government has handled this poorly.

A majority (57%) say it seems to them an “attempt to use public money to reward people who are friends and supporters) while 43% say it is more “about short time frames and a lack of proper diligence on the part of the government”. These numbers have shifted 4-points towards the patronage conclusion in the last ten days.

Among those who voted Liberal last fall, 34% think the WE matter is about helping reward friends and supporters with public money, up 3-points since July 16.

SHOULD MINISTER MORNEAU RESIGN?

Half (48%) don’t feel they know enough about Bill Morneau’s role in the matter to have an opinion. Among those who do have an opinion, more think he should resign (35%) rather than stay on (16%) as Finance Minister. Among those who voted Liberal in October, one in five (21%) feel Mr. Morneau should step down, 34% say he should not, and the rest aren’t sure.

Among those who have been following the WE matter closely, 54% say the Finance Minister should step down compared to 26% who say he should stay on, and 20% who don’t have an opinion at this point.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “COVID dominates public concerns, but this matter has nonetheless left an unmistakable mark on public impressions of the Liberals. Lots of opinion is yet to be formed, and time will tell whether the matter fades to the background or becomes even more politically charged, but for the Liberals, there are clear warning signals in these numbers.

A lot of those who supported the party just months ago, seem tepid or even cooler than that in their feelings towards Mr. Morneau. That two-thirds of Liberal 2019 voters want Mr. Trudeau to lead the party next election is not the overwhelming vote of confidence he might have seen had we asked the same question a couple of months ago.

This signals that some voters will be watching carefully to see how he handles himself and manages his government in the days to come, including in his testimony at the Finance Committee. The issue now may now be less about recusal or whether there was corrupt intent, and more about effective management of government and how he responds to the inevitable issues and errors that can arise.”

According to David Coletto: “The WE Charity controversy has turned an eleven point Liberal lead to a four-point in a matter of months. The Liberals are tied with the Conservatives in Ontario and the BQ in Quebec. Worse, underlying attitudes towards the government and the Prime Minister continue to deteriorate. More people now have a negative view of the Prime Minister than a positive one and the government’s approval rating is back to where it was prior to the pandemic.

Canadians remained engaged on the issue and views are shifting away from the government’s narrative. The longer this is a story, the more it damages the public’s impression of the Prime Minister and the government. These results should be a wake-up call to Liberals. It also raises the stakes for the Conservative leadership race because it’s clear, the Liberals are beatable again.”

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

Find out more about what we are doing to help clients respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian residents from July 27 to 29, 2020. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

If an election were held right now, the Liberal Party (36%) lead nationally – five-point ahead of the Conservatives (31%) – but Liberal support has slid four points since our last measurement at the end of June.

The Liberals lead has shrunk to 7-points in Ontario, 4-points over the BQ in Quebec, and the Liberals are tied with the NDP in BC, with the Conservatives trailing in third.

Public impressions of the Prime Minister have also taken a hit, dropping 5-points over the past month. Today 42% have a positive view of Mr. Trudeau and 36% say their feeling is negative. On a regional basis, Mr. Trudeau is net +6 nationally (42% positive, 36% negative), +9 in BC, +9 in Ontario, +6 in Quebec and +14 in Atlantic Canada.

By a 14-point margin, more people approve of the federal government’s performance today than disapprove (48% approve, 34% disapprove), although approval is down 10-points over the past two months and 4-points since June. Approval remains above 50% in BC, Ontario and Atlantic Canada but has sagged below in Quebec and the Prairies. In Quebec, approval of the federal government is down 12-points, to 40%.

THE WE CHARITY CONTROVERSY

Across the country, 14% have been following the controversy over the federal government’s plan to engage the We Charity to operate a summer jobs program. Another 33% have been following it fairly closely.

Based on what they have heard about the We Charity matter to date, 18% say the federal government has managed the matter well, another 28% say “ok”, while a majority give the government poor (29%) or very poor (24%) marks.

Reactions are fairly negative across the country, and even 40% of those who voted Liberal last fall says the government handled this poorly.

When asked if they feel the controversy is about “short time frames and a lack of proper diligence on the part of the government” or “an attempt to use public funds to reward people who are friends and supporters” – opinion is pretty evenly split, with the slight majority (53%) suggesting it was about patronage rather than a lack of diligence.

Quebecers are 6-points more likely than those in Ontario or BC to think the controversy was about using public funds to help friends and supporters.

Again it is worth noting that 31% of those who voted Liberal say the WE Charity controversy was about trying to reward friends and supporters.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “The WE Charity controversy has damaged the government’s standing with Canadians, after several months of people feeling fairly positive towards the Prime Minister and the Liberals. So far the damage is significant but not extreme. For the Liberals, these results are a reminder that ethical lapses can bring about a swift reversal of political fortune, and can undermine confidence even among those who supported the party at the ballot box only months ago.”

According to David Coletto: “For the past several months, impressions of the Prime Minister and the Liberal Party been trending positively as a result of the public’s positive evaluation of the government’s handling of the pandemic. Canadians evaluated the Prime Minister’s leadership through the lens of the crisis.

But, over the past few weeks, that lens has shifted as a result of the WE Charity controversy. Despite it being summer, Canadians remained highly engaged with current affairs and more continue to follow the news than they might normally do. It’s pretty clear to me that the controversy has harmed the Prime Minister’s image and pulled the Liberal vote down with it.”

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

Find out more about what we are doing to help clients respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian residents from July 13 to 16, 2020. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

In the wake of the announcement that former Harper-era cabinet minister Jay Hill is taking over the leadership of Wexit Canada – a political party whose goal is the separation of the four most western provinces from the rest of Canada – we polled Canadians on what they thought of this platform.

Here’s what we found:

• 12% think it’s a good idea for BC to separate, and another 26% could live with it, while 64% say it’s a terrible idea. In BC 13% say it’s a good idea, 16% could live with it, and 71% think it’s a terrible idea. Among federal Conservative voters, 16% say it’s a good idea, 22% could live with it, and 62% think it a terrible idea.

• 11% think it is a good idea for Alberta to separate, another 26% could live with it, while 63% say terrible. In Alberta, 20% like the idea, 26% could live with it, and 54% say it’s a terrible idea. Federal Conservative voters are 10-points more open to or supportive of the idea.

• 9% say it’s a good idea for Saskatchewan to leave the country, 29% could live with it, while 62% say it’s a terrible idea. 40% of federal Conservatives like (17%) or are open to (23%) the idea.

• Results about Manitoba separating are almost identical to those about Saskatchewan: 9% like the idea, 28% could live with it, and 62% say it’s a terrible idea.

• For all four provinces, Quebecers show a higher than average willingness to go along with separation, undoubtedly reflecting the fact that many people in Quebec have favoured Quebec separation at one point or another.

• 7% of Canadians think it would be a good thing if all four western provinces separated. Among that group, in 2019, 49% voted Conservative, 17% voted BQ, 16% voted Liberal, 11% voted NDP, and 5% voted for the People’s Party of Canada.

• 7% of those living across the four western-most provinces think it would be a good thing if all four western provinces separated. Among that group, in 2019, 81% voted Conservative.

UPSHOT

Western separation continues to find limited support but some potential acquiescence. Based on current sentiments there are enough advocates and enough strong opponents to imagine a spirited debate – but actual support for the concept is confined to a small minority.

Those willing to go along with the idea are not saying they would vote to support it, and the experience in most referendums is that an idea needs to start which considerably more than 50% support to finish above that level.

If there is a political consequence in the nearer term it may be the potential for this party, under Mr. Hill’s leadership, to drain support from the federal Conservative Party. Every vote he picks up hurts the Conservatives far more than any other party. The combination of a People’s Party, a Wexit campaign means the next federal Conservative leader will need to decide early whether to take a hard pro-Canada line against Mr. Hill’s effort or acknowledge the legitimacy of separatism in an effort to hold it’s base together.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

Find out more about what we are doing to help clients respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian residents from June 26 t0 30, 2020. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.8%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

A new poll finds Canadians are satisfied with Canada’s public institutions’ response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

At the beginning of May, Abacus Data conducted a national public opinion survey commissioned by the Rideau Hall Foundation. This survey was a follow-up to research that was conducted in February just a few weeks before the COVID-19 outbreak and was intended to understand how the initial pandemic response has changed public impressions of Canadian public institutions.

Here is what we found:

FOR MOST CANADIANS, PUBLIC INSTITUTIONS = GOVERNMENT.

There are many public institutions in Canada, serving Canadians in many different ways, but when asked what comes to mind when they think “public institution” most said government.

We asked Canadians in an open-ended question what comes to mind when they think of the phrase public institutions. Top answers were:

• Something run by government/government offices (30%)
• Schools/education (23%)
• Hospital/Healthcare (17%)

This framing is important to understand when assessing the other findings. When Canadians are evaluating their public institutions, this is their frame of reference.

AFTER CANADA’S INITIAL RESPONSE TO THE PANDEMIC, PERCEPTIONS OF ‘CANADA’, ESPECIALLY AMONG YOUNG CANADIANS WERE MORE POSITIVE.

Since the pandemic started there has been a significant increase in the number of Canadians who say our country is headed in the right direction. In our survey:

• 55% of Canadians say the country is headed in the right direction, a 9-point increase from February.
• Among different age groups:
o 64% of those 18-29 say the country is headed in the right direction.
o 59% of those 30-44 say the country is headed in the right direction.
o And 50% of those over 45 say the country is headed in the right direction.

This shift is significant and may seem counter-intuitive given the disruption, anxiety, and economic harm the pandemic has caused. Yet despite the uncertainty, and these concerns, Canadians have become increasingly optimistic about our country and its foundation of public institutions that serve Canadians.

So why, despite all that’s happened, are Canadians more optimistic about the direction of the country?

A STRONG INITIAL RESPONSE TO THE PANDEMIC.

One possible answer is the performance of the public institutions that responded and served Canadians during the pandemic.

• 86% say Canada’s public institutions have responded very well/well/as well as can be expected to the COVID-19 pandemic so far.
• 36% say they are more confident in Canada’s institutions because of the pandemic. 41% are just as confident as they were before.

Another reason for the increased confidence is the prominence these institutions played in Canadians’ lives. For the past 14 weeks, these institutions, from our health system to our political institutions, to our financial system were under duress. And for the most part, Canadians feel they not only responded well to this pressure but reassured them about their effectiveness and resiliency.

For example:
• 74% say they are paying more attention to the healthcare system while 58% are paying more attention to news organizations as a result of the pandemic.
• Half (53%) say they are paying more attention to their provincial legislatures, and 43% say the same about their municipal government.
• 42% of Canadians are watching the federal public service more closely, who reacted quickly to establish a number of emergency programs.

Despite being in the spotlight, which doesn’t always produce positive evaluations, most Canadians have a positive view of public institutions’ initial response to the pandemic. While some remain consistent in their impression, one-third of Canadians say the response to the pandemic has left them more confident about Canada’s institutions. Over 80% of Canadians think our institutions responded well. Only 14% say the response from Canada’s institutions has been poor.

Our survey also finds that more Canadians are associating positive attributes with our public institutions. 79% say our institutions are relevant (an increase of 7-points since February), 69% believe they unite Canadians (an increase of 10-points since February), and 75% describe them as accessible (up 6-points since February).

HAVING POSITIVE IMPRESSIONS OF THE COUNTRY OVERALL MEANS HAVING POSITIVE IMPRESSIONS OF OUR PUBLIC INSTITUTIONS.

Canadians who feel the country is headed in the right direction are even more optimistic and confident in Canada’s public institutions.

When we look at only those who said the country is headed in the right direction, these Canadians are more satisfied with our institution’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic and more confident in our institutions as a result.

The pandemic has created an opportunity for Canadians to interact with, and reflect on institutions in a way they may never have done before. And as a result, the pandemic has allowed us to recognize the importance of having strong institutions, built on solid foundations that are able to respond to the crisis or just keep our country running smoothly.

THE PANDEMIC HAS ‘RE-ENGAGED’ MORE CANADIANS.

Aside from more positive impressions of Canada and our institutions, and increased interest in certain institutions, overall public engagement has increased significantly. One measure we often track is ‘engaged Canadians’, or those who are paying attention to news, politics and current events. Between the end of February and the beginning of May, the number of ‘engaged Canadians’ increased a substantial 27 percentage points.

While this level of engagement may not persist, the pandemic has clearly forced Canadians to become more engaged in their country, follow current affairs, and closely monitor what is happening around them. This may be a positive legacy of the pandemic.

ENGAGEMENT IS STILL LOWEST AMONG YOUNG CANADIANS.

Although engagement has increased at least 25 percentage points for each age group, younger Canadians continue to be the least engaged, even during the pandemic. Those aged 18 to 29 are 30-points less likely to be engaged than those aged 60 and over.

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought challenges for Canadians of all ages, though the impacts on young Canadians seem to be particularly tough. The unemployment rate is bleakest for this age group, and among students, summer job prospects have been severely affected. Given these impacts, it is noteworthy and disheartening, that young Canadians continue to be the least engaged.

Also, while young Canadians have the most positive impressions of our country overall, they are also the least confident in Canada’s public institutions as a result of the pandemic.

This suggests younger Canadians are not making the connection between the ‘Canada’ they see and the public institutions that make Canada what it is.

WHERE TO FROM HERE?

A lot has happened since the beginning of the pandemic. The institutions involved in the COVID-19 response are shifting towards recovery, and other institutions, entirely separate from COVID-19, are now part of our news cycle. There is a lot to take in, and while Canadians are paying attention now it is time to engage to ensure that our public institutions are even more accessible and reflective of the population.

TIME TO ACT ON ENGAGEMENT, ESPECIALLY FOR YOUNG CANADIANS.

One way to ensure our Canadian public institutions stay relevant, and serve Canadians is to engage with them. Engaging with and participating within our public institutions can help to ensure the public institutions are looking out for our interests. Engagement also allows us to hold our public institutions accountable and ensure that they are continually serving the needs of all Canadians.

This is especially true for young Canadians. Young Canadians seem to feel the most pride for our country, but they are least likely to make the connection between the Canada they see, and the institutions that are our foundation.

Becoming more engaged with our institutions is a great way to learn more about how they work together and serve Canadians. Engaging with institutions means being part of the ‘Canada’ we are proud of, or sparking change within these institutions so they can become the foundation of Canada we want them to be.

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted online with 1,500 Canadian adults, from May 4 to 6, 2020. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

Find out more about what we are doing to help clients respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

If an election were held at the time of the survey, the Liberals would win 40%, the Conservatives 29% and followed by the NDP at 16%, the Greens at 6%, and the BQ at 7%. Just prior to the pandemic, the Liberals and Conservatives were within a point of each other.

The Conservatives have a 32-point lead over the Liberals, in Alberta, an 18-point lead in Saskatchewan and a 5-point lead in Manitoba.

The Liberals have a 9-point lead over the NDP in BC, a 13-point lead in Ontario, and a 16-point advantage over the BQ in Quebec, and a 20-point lead in Atlantic Canada.

While the NDP have seen some gains in support in BC, they have dropped to just 8% in Quebec.

The Liberals lead every age group, and among both men and women. They have a 25-point lead among immigrants and a 21-point lead among racialized Canadians.

The Liberals also lead across all education groups. They have a 11-point lead among those with High School or less, 6-points among those who attained a college degree, and 15-points among those with a university education.

ACCESSIBLE VOTER POOLS: 55% WOULD CONSIDER VOTING LIBERAL; 46% NDP, 43% CONSERVATIVE.

Today, 55% of Canadians would consider voting Liberal, the highest we have recorded since November 2018. The Liberals have sizeable potential voter pools in BC (62%), Ontario (59%), Quebec (52%), and Atlantic Canada (67%). 4 in 10 Albertans say they are open to voting Liberal as do half of those living in Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

The Conservative Party’s voter pool, at 43%, is the lowest it has been since soon after the 2015 election. Going into the 2019 federal election, 48% said they would consider voting Conservative. Since the election, the party’s accessible voter pool has decreased.

Potential Conservative voters are more likely to live in the Prairies. 42% of Ontarians, 46% of British Columbians, and only 26% of Quebecers would consider voting Conservative. Men are more likely than women to consider voting for the Conservatives while those aged 18 to 30 are the least likely age group to be open to voting Conservative.

The NDP’s voter pool, at 46% today, has remained relatively consistent hovering between 44% and 48% for most of 2019 and 2020. The party’s voter pool is largest in BC (56%) and Atlantic Canada (56%), with about half in Ontario open to voting NDP. Only 34% of Quebecers say they would even consider voting NDP today.

Women are more likely than men to be open to the NDP as are younger Canadians. While almost six in ten 18 to 30 year olds are open to voting NDP, only about 4 in 10 among those aged 45 and over would consider voting for the New Democrats.

TRUDEAU & SINGH MORE POPULAR THAN SCHEER, MACKAY, AND O’TOOLE.

Feelings towards Mr. Trudeau are 47% positive, and his negatives are 31% unchanged over the past few waves of research. He has a positive net score everywhere except for in Saskatchewan and Alberta.

Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer has 19% positive opinion and 45% negative, a slight improvement since May. In Alberta, where the Conservatives swept every seat, Mr. Scheer’s positives are 28% and his negatives 37%. Mr. Scheer has net negatives among immigrants and racialized Canadians but his numbers are worse among people born here and non-racialized people. His biggest weaknesses are -31 in Quebec and -33 among those with university education.

Ratings for NDP leader Jagmeet Singh are 36% positive (the highest since soon after the 2019 election) and his negatives are at 23%. His positives are up 5-points since mid-May while his negatives are up 3-points.

For Peter MacKay, 20% of Canadians report a positive view, 24% negative. Among 2019 Conservative voters, 42% like Mr. MacKay and 10% dislike him.

For Erin O’Toole, 15% report positive, and 21% negative views. Among 2019 Conservative voters, Mr. O’Toole is liked by 36% and disliked by7%. This represents a narrowing of the gap between these two front runners since our previous poll.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “Politics in Canada is in a state of suspended animation. There’s no telling how the next six months will evolve in terms of the pandemic and the economy – but for now, people are satisfied with the response of the Liberals.

Opposition party criticisms are not finding much traction – whether about the House sitting, action on gun control, deficit spending – voters have narrowed their priorities and are hoping for the best, and hoping to avoid the worst. Racial inequality is also prominent today. And for many, the climate change issue has not receded, it is an abiding and urgent priority.

This context naturally favours an activist agenda focused on health protection and steadying the economy, as well as efforts to combat racism and climate change. It is as such a poor backdrop for a Conservative leadership race, at least one in which half the candidates want to focus on social conservatism, and none of the candidates appear willing to make much of an effort to talk about battling climate change and systemic racism.”

According to David Coletto: “Thirteen weeks into the pandemic and the political landscape looks quite different than when it all started. The Liberals have a solid lead nationally, built on broad approval of the government’s performance and goodwill towards the Prime Minister. About half the country has positive views of the Prime Minister, steady over the past two months.

In contrast, the Conservative Party finds itself in far worse condition today than at any point in the past 5 years. Only 43% of Canadians would consider voting Conservative, three points lower than the NDP. The party trails the Liberals by 11-points nationally, 13-points in Ontario, 31-points in Quebec, and 10-points in Quebec.

More troubling, the party is a distant third among those under 30 and trails the Liberals among 30 to 44-year-olds. Even among those over 60, a demographic the Conservatives can typically count on, they trail the Liberals by three.

Andrew Scheer is widely disliked, even in the Conservative stronghold of Alberta. Back in December 2019, we explored the Conservative Party’s brand. It seems little has changed in how Canadians perceive the party and its prospects since then.

NDP support has held steady throughout the pandemic hovering between 15% and 19%. It has pockets of support in BC and some parts of Ontario, but lacks any regional foothold to grow from. Although it does relatively well among younger Canadians, the party barely registers above 10% among those 45 and over.

Although Jagmeet Singh has a net positive image and 46% would consider voting NDP, a level consistent with most of 2019 and 2020, the party is struggling to differentiate itself while the Liberals hold the centre-left of the political spectrum.”

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

Find out more about what we are doing to help clients respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 2,979 Canadian residents from June 12 to 21, 2020. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.8%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.