Quebec is Moving Away from the Rest of the Country but Most Don’t Believe it is a Path to Separation

On October 3, Québec will select a new provincial government. This makes it an ideal time to ask Canadians about the election but also Quebec’s role in the federation.  The survey conducted with Boudeweel Public Affairs shows some interesting dynamics including the belief that Quebec is moving away from the rest of Canada.

The Provincial Election

Although 38% of those living outside of Quebec don’t care about the outcome of the election, many are at least somewhat interested (39%). Interest is highest in Ontario (42%) and lowest in the Prairies (28%). The campaign has, however, captured the interest of those in Quebec.

While there is significant interest in the election, those outside of Quebec are very unsure about what the re-election of the Coalition avenir Québec (CAQ) led by François Legault would mean. Setting aside those who don’t know, views of the impact are almost equally balanced between positive assessments and negative ones.

In Quebec, the re-election of the CAQ is largely seen as a good thing for Quebec, the rest of Canada and for national unity. There are, of course, many detractors in Quebec and a significant group who are not sure what the election will mean for the rest of Canada or national unity.

Quebec and Canada

Almost half of Canadians (47%) and 60% of those who have an opinion on the matter think Quebec is moving further away from the rest of Canada. Notably, this is a view that is shared both within and outside of Quebec. People in Quebec feel it as well. Relatively few think Quebec is getting closer.

Outside of Quebec, many more people think Quebec is headed off on the wrong track (30%) than the right direction (18%). Again, many are not sure. Importantly, those who think Quebec is moving off on the wrong track are much more likely to say that Quebec is moving farther away from the rest of Canada.

Canadians outside of Quebec have negative perceptions of the province on a few key issues. Most notably, those outside of Quebec think the province is doing a worse job than the rest of the country on language rights (41% said worse), religious rights and freedoms (37% said worse) and Integrating immigrants into the province (35% said worse).

When asked about the likelihood that Québec will separate from Canada within the next 10 years, the vast majority of Canadians discount the possibility. Only 4% of those from outside Québec said separation definitely will happen (4%) or is likely to happen (9%). Those in Quebec also discount the possibility.

UPSHOT

According to David Boudeweel-Lefebvre, CEO of Boudeweel Public Affairs: “Our survey findings reveal that most Canadians feel Québec is moving farther away from the rest of the country at this moment, but they don’t seem concerned that the province will actually separate. The sense of moving away is being driven by negative perceptions of how the province is dealing with key rights and identity issues.”

According to David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data: “Many Canadians outside of Quebec are not paying much attention to what is happening in the province but those who are are more likely than not to see the province moving away from the rest of the country. The lack of accompanying worry that Quebec might leave as a result is either naïve, indifference or a tacit understanding that federalism can adapt to the cultural needs of provinces. It will be important to see how this plays out in Quebec and other provinces in the next few years.”

About David Boudeweel-Lefebvre and Boudeweel Public Affairs

David Boudeweel-Lefebvre has worked 20+ years in politics and government affairs. He founded Boudeweel Public Affairs in 2020 to help English-speaking business clients successfully navigate French-speaking Quebec. A more complete bio detailing David’s career can be provided upon request.

To learn more about Boudeweel Public Affairs please visit: boudeweel.com

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1,901 Canadian adults from September 9 to 14, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2% 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.



Canadian PoliticsCOVID-19MediaPolls

Reaching Gender Parity in Politics: We Still Have Room to Grow

In late August 2022 Informed Opinions commissioned a survey to understand how Canadians perceive women’s political representation including how we rank relative to other countries, the level of importance of this issue and support for solutions.  

The survey was conducted with n=2,000 general population individuals in Canada. 

Here’s what we found:

When it comes to gender parity, Canadians are (understandably) unhappy when they learn of how Canada compares to other countries. In our survey, we asked Canadians to rank where Canada placed compared to other countries, with 1st being the highest proportion of women, and 187th as the lowest. Upon being informed Canada ranks 59th place, two-thirds of Canadians had an adverse reaction- expressing feelings of concern, disappointment, surprise or anger. (It’s also worth noting that we’ve dropped from 27th place 20 years ago.)

A majority of Canadians believe we need to eliminate the obstacles to make the balance of power possible. Three-quarters of Canadians (77%) say women who run for political office face greater criticism than their male counterparts. Whether this be heckling and personal attacks once entering the public eye, or critical remarks about their level of expertise and capabilities, Canadians recognize that politics is a less than welcome space for women.

For the majority of Canadians, achieving gender parity is worth the work it will take us to get there. Canadians see economic, societal and democratic benefits to achieving gender parity. Between 84-86% of Canadians believe having as many women as men in politics is good for our communities, our economy, and ensures elected officials truly represent their constituents.

So, who needs to do the work to get us there? Canadians place much of the responsibility on political parties and government. When asked who is most responsible for increasing women’s presence among elected officials, a third (35%) say it’s up to political parties to actively recruit a set of candidates that represent the diversity of citizens, and 28% say it’s up to the government to create policies to ensure our parliament and legislatures represent the diversity of citizens.

Far fewer say it is the responsibility of voters or women themselves.

UPSHOT

According to Oksana Kishchuk: Some indicators may suggest we are making progress in gender parity but our global ranking has slipped and Canadians are noticing. Canadians agree the path to becoming an elected official looks different for women, and feel there are many reasons why this should change. They understand that ensuring women hold a balance of power delivers economic, societal, and democratic benefits.

In light of both of these advantages and our international ranking Canadians are supportive of the work it will take to get there.

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 2,000 Canadians from August 24 to 30, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.19%, 19 times out of 20. 

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding. This poll was conducted by Abacus Data and paid for by Informed Opinions.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.



Media

After One Week: The Conservatives lead by 5 over the Liberals

We just completed a national survey of 1,990 Canadian adults from September 11 to 14, 2022.

VOTE INTENTION

If an election were held today, 35% would vote for the Conservative Party, 30% for the Liberal Party, 17% for the NDP and 9% for the BQ. All the interviews for this wave of results were completed after the results of the Conservative leadership race were announced last Saturday evening. This is the third survey in four we have completed in which the Conservatives have a 5-point lead over the Liberals.

The results indicate a three way race in BC with the Conservatives ahead, a slight lead for the Conservatives in Ontario, and the Liberals falling behind BQ in Quebec. The Liberals have a wide lead in Atlantic Canada and the Conservatives have a huge advantage in the Prairies.

SATISFACTION WITH FEDERAL GOVERNMENT UNCHANGED

Today, 37% are satisfied, and 49% are dissatisfied with the performance of the federal government, a one-point or statistically insignificant change from last wave.

FEELINGS ABOUT THE PRIME MINISTER ARE STABLE

Public feelings about Prime Minister Trudeau show no further decline and small gains over the last few waves. The shift is small enough to be cautious not to over-interpret. The Prime Minister’s negatives stand at 48% – down from a peak of 51% a few weeks ago.

JAGMEET SINGH’S APPROVAL RATING HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY

For the last couple of years, Jagmeet Singh has been the most popular of the federal leaders, at one time his net rating was +21 (46% positive/25% negative). Since then, his positives have slid and his negatives have risen. This latest result shows no further deterioration and mild improvement.

PIERRE POILIEVRE: POSITIVES AND NEGATIVES JUMP 7 POINTS 

There’s been a big jump in the number of people who have an opinion about Pierre Poilievre, and the results are mixed for the Conservative leader. His negatives rose by 7 points and his positives rose by 7 points as well. The plurality (37%) remain on the fence about Mr. Poilievre.

Regionally, Mr. Poilievre’s positives are highest in Alberta (43%) and lowest in Quebec (21%). His negatives are also highest in Quebec (47%) and lowest in Alberta and Atlantic Canada.

Among current party supporters, Mr. Poilevre has a net +68 among his own party supporters and a +12 among People’s Party supporters. But among Liberal, NDP, Green, and BQ supporters, a majority have a negative view with very few having a positive impression. His net favourables among Liberal supporters is -40, -44 among NDP supporters, -52 among Green supporters, and -33 among BQ supporters.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “The election of Pierre Poilievre to lead the Conservatives was neither the boost of enthusiasm the Conservative Party might have hoped for nor was it good news for their rivals in the Liberal Party. The interesting thing to watch is whether the ballot question over the next year or two will be about Mr. Trudeau, or about Mr. Poilievre. The Conservatives will see good news in the rise in positive feelings towards their new leader but some anxiety in a same-sized rise in negative opinion, and particularly negative opinions in the province of Quebec. The handling of his relationship with Jean Charest, Alain Rayes, and others in the Quebec caucus represents a weak start in a province where Mr. Poilievre must hope to win more ridings, not lose seats.”

According to David Coletto: “Mr. Poilievre and the Conservatives can take solace in that he starts his time as Conservative leader with a solid national lead. But his initial introduction to Canadians has been quite mixed. Most striking is the level of polarization in views towards Mr. Poilievre already. The data suggests he’s already the most polarizing leader at the federal level – more so than even Mr. Trudeau. Mr. Poilievre is well-liked among Conservatives and some People’s Party supporters but finds few admirers in among other party supporters. This will make expanding the Conservative Party’s appeal challenging and something to watch over the next few weeks.

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1,990 Canadian adults from September 11 to 14, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2% 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.



Canadian PoliticsCOVID-19MediaPolls

COVID Worries Remain Low Heading Into Fall

WORRY LEVELS ARE LOW AND STABLE

Just 16% say they are extremely worried or worried a lot about Covid-19. This has been relatively consistent through July and August, and the lowest levels we have seen since the beginning of the pandemic in March of 2020.  Just 18% say their level of concern has increased in recent days, the lowest number since the pandemic began.

REPORTED INFECTION RATES HAVE NOT RISEN THROUGH SUMMER

A total of 27% say they are sure they had Covid and another 10% believe they probably did.  After climbing in the period between February and July, these numbers have remained stable throughout the summer months.

MOST PEOPLE WHO HAD COVID REPORT LIMITED SYMPTOMS

Three out of four people who believe they were infected with Covid-19 say their symptoms were either uncomfortable but not bad, or that they had hardly any symptoms.  Just under a third (31%) described their symptoms as bad (24%) or very bad (7%).

FEW EXPECT A SEVERE FALL WAVE OF COVID

Most (66%) expect there will be lots of Covid infections, but symptoms will be generally mild in the coming months.  Just 10% anticipate that there will be a lot of severe illness and hospitalizations.  24% believe that fewer and fewer will be ill and eventually, Covid will disappear.

MOST PREFER GOVERNMENT TO BE VIGILANT, BUT RESTRAINED

As fears of Covid have eased, more people believe the right approach for government is to be prepared to introduce measures if things get worse, “but don’t push too hard”. A quarter (25%) say that under no circumstances should government put in mask, vaccine or other rules/mandates.  Only 22% say the government should take all possible measures to reduce the spread of the disease, even if it means going back to the way things were earlier in the pandemic.

MANY MIGHT PASS ON A BOOSTER THIS FALL

While roughly 90% of the adults surveyed have had some vaccination against Covid, only 38% are certain that they would take a booster dose if that’s what is recommended this fall. Another 19% say they would probably take a shot. Outright refusal stands at 18%.

MANY PARENTS ARE HESITANT ABOUT VACCINATING THEIR CHILDREN

Among parents with children in the 12-17 age range, 17% are hesitant to get their kids vaccinated and 14% say they won’t.  The levels of hesitancy rise among parents of younger children.  Among those with children under 5, a third are hesitant and a third say they won’t take the step to get their child vaccinated.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson and David Coletto: “This summer has left people feeling more confident that the worst of Covid is behind us and looking forward to a future where Covid is a smaller preoccupation and a more livable, manageable risk.  These feelings may not map well to the scientific or medical data, but they nonetheless create political conditions that are different from those a year ago.  Canadians want governments to react with appropriate measures and caution, but to be restrained – an abundance of caution made more sense to people before many experienced Covid and the value of vaccinations firsthand. Today, they feel the risk is more known and manageable.  Notwithstanding the massive demand for the vaccine, its uptake, and the belief that vaccines helped limit severe illness and death, a significant number of people are uncertain about whether they will take a booster dose if one is recommended this fall.”

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from August 26 to 30, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6% 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.



Canadian PoliticsCOVID-19MediaPolls

Deadlocked: Liberals and Conservatives head to Fall session one point apart

We just completed a national survey of 1,500 Canadian adults from August 26 to 30, 2022.

If an election were held today, 33% would vote for the Conservative Party, 32% for the Liberal Party, 19% for the NDP and 7% for the BQ.

These numbers are all within the margin of error of the results of last year’s federal election.

The latest numbers send unclear signals to the two leading parties: Conservatives will wonder if what felt like positive momentum is dwindling, and Liberals will wonder if what felt like declining support has stopped. Only time, events, and more data over time will tell which scenario is accurate.

BC, ONTARIO, AND QUEBEC: RACES ALL TIGHT

In the three provinces that elect the largest proportion of seats to the House of Commons, the result indicate a three-way race in BC, a tied race between the Conservatives and Liberals in Ontario, and the Liberals with a narrow (4 point) lead over the BQ in Quebec. The Liberals have a wide lead in Atlantic Canada and the Conservatives have a huge advantage in the Prairies.

SATISFACTION WITH THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT UP A FEW POINTS

While more people are dissatisfied with Ottawa’s performance, our latest numbers show modest improvement for the government, after seeing satisfaction levels deteriorate in recent months. Today, 36% are satisfied, and 49% are dissatisfied.

FEELINGS ABOUT THE PM – DETERIORATION STALLED OR STOPPED

Public feelings about Prime Minister Trudeau had been deteriorating through our surveying over the summer but the latest results show no further decline. The shift is small enough to be cautious not to over-interpret a single data point. The Prime Minister’s negatives still stand at 50% – the second highest negative reading we’ve seen during his time in politics.

JAGMEET SINGH’S APPROVAL RATING HAS WEAKENED

For the last couple of years, Jagmeet Singh has been the most popular of the federal leaders, at one time his net rating was +21 (46% positive/25% negative). Since then, his positives have slid to 34% and his negatives have risen to 31%, leaving him with a +3 net rating.

PIERRE POILIEVRE: MANY STILL DON’T HAVE AN OPINION

At the start of the Conservative leadership race, 42% had an opinion about Mr. Poilievre. Today as the race wraps up, only 49% have an opinion. During that time, his positives have always been in the 20%-22% range, and his negatives went from 22% to 27%.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “As the Trudeau government heads to a Cabinet and full caucus retreat the public opinion data will provide some encouragement that the deterioration we were seeing may have stalled. At the same time, there is not much evidence of enthusiasm for the Liberals, with dissatisfaction numbers near all-time highs, including for the Prime Minister. Roughly 7 million voters are looking for something they aren’t finding right now from the Trudeau government. For the Conservatives, the numbers also are mixed tidings – this leadership race has not created any momentum for the Party, and the perceptions of the likely winner have moved the wrong way, albeit only modestly. As things stand, they are highly competitive, but not winning many new hearts and minds, despite the evident vulnerability of the Liberals.”

According to David Coletto: “The Canadian political environment continues to be deeply fragmented. The Liberals and Conservatives are deadlocked in vote intentions, disapproval with the federal government and Mr. Trudeau is higher than it has been. But at the same time, Mr. Singh’s negatives have risen while his positives have dropped. More view Mr. Poilievre negatively than positively but he’s a blank canvas to many. How Canadians who don’t know Mr. Poilievre will react to him will be what I’m watching most closely over the next few months.”

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from August 26 to 30, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6% 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.



Canadian PoliticsCOVID-19MediaPolls

Back to School 2022: Are Canadians Concerned?

Children across Canada are gearing up to enter what will be their third school year with the pandemic. With most COVID-19 restrictions having been lifted, we wanted to understand how parents were feeling about sending their children to school in person this fall. We just fielded a national survey of adult Canadians in which we asked a group of over 300 parents of school-aged children what they thought.

Right out the gate, it is evident that the vast majority of parents will be sending their children to school in person this fall. With that said, only about 25% of those attending in person will be required to wear a mask throughout the school day. However, with experts warning of a potential wave of infections this fall, is this really the best choice moving forward?

Well, parents do not seem to be overly concerned about it. In fact, levels of concern seem to vary greatly. While just over half reported their concerns at or below a 5, a similar proportion of parents reported their concerns to be above that level. However, numbers on the lowest end of the spectrum were selected far more than those on the highest end, suggesting that those who are unconcerned with the return to school are significantly more decided on their opinion.

Interestingly, when looking at those whose children are required to wear a mask this fall, concerns greatly increase. This could mean that the lack of restrictions is directly related to a sense of safety among parents. For example, if there is no need to wear a mask this fall, there is no need to worry about COVID-19.

With or without mandates, it is still important to be conscious of how the COVID-19 virus spreads, and how to best stay protected. With that said, we wanted to see how well parents thought their children would be able to stick to the expert recommendations. Nearly 8 in 10 feel that their child would be able to regularly sanitize and wash their hands throughout the school day. However, this raises to 9 in ten when looking at parents of children aged 15-17. Only 57% of parents feel that their children would be able to wear a mask for the entire school day, down to 53% among parents of those between the ages of 5 and 8. Social distancing will be the biggest struggle this school year, with only 46% of parents reporting that their child would be able to do this for the entire school day. While there is some movement between age groups in this category, it is evident that social distancing will be a struggle for all school-aged children.

We also wanted to know if parents felt that a COVID-19 outbreak was likely or unlikely to happen in their children’s schools this academic year, as well as the likelihood of their child getting the virus. 68% of parents of school-aged children feel that a COVID-19 outbreak at their children’s schools this year is at least likely, with 17% saying it is very likely to occur. With that said, 62% also feel that it is likely that their child will get the virus at school this year. With so many expecting to experience COVID this school year, we can only hope that they are up to date on their vaccinations.

While the vast majority of school-aged children are getting their shots for COVID-19, there is still a group of parents (23%) that say they will not vaccinate their children. Those who reported that they will not be vaccinating their children against COVID-19 feel this way due to a lack of trust in vaccines, and concerns over their safety and the side effects.

It is evident that vaccination rates among school-aged children correlate to their ages. While only 33% of those under 2 have received at least one dose, this number jumps to 83% when looking at those aged 15 to 17. This is most likely due to the health risks and side effects often associated with vaccines, as those with younger, more vulnerable, children may not feel as comfortable with the vaccine as those with older children.

UPSHOT

Many things have changed since the onset of the pandemic, yet so much still feels the same. With millions of school-aged children heading to school with the expectation of contracting COVID-19 this year, I wonder if experts made the right call when they relaxed safety measures and restrictions. I guess only time will tell.

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 365 Canadian parents of school-aged children from August 16th to 20th, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 5.13%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

COVID-19MediaPolls

Canadians overwhelmingly think Canada is a better place to live than the US, but some aren’t as sure as others.

We completed a national survey of 1,500 Canadian adults from July 11 to 17, 2022.

ALL THINGS CONSIDERED, WHICH IS A BETTER PLACE TO LIVE – CANADA OR THE US?

While 1 in every 10 Canadians think it would be better to live in the US, everyone else thinks Canada is the better place to be. This feeling is pretty consistent across all regions of the country. To the extent that there are subgroups of the population that are more doubtful that Canada is better, these are men under 45, Conservative and People’s Party voters, and those who have not been vaccinated for Covid-19.

CANADA – SAFER FROM VIOLENCE, BETTER HEALTH CARE

We asked Canadians how they thought their lives would compare on four different criteria if they lived in the US instead of Canada. Majorities thought being in Canada would mean more safety from violence and better health care. Pluralities felt that living in Canada also meant being better off financially and enjoying life more.

MEN UNDER 45

While most men in this age group think Canada is still, all things considered, a better place to live, they are 9 points below the national average on that question. Looking into how they answered the other questions, reveals that the plurality of younger men think they would be better off financially and enjoy life more if they were living in the US.

CONSERVATIVE PARTY VOTERS

Conservative voters are also 9-points below the national average on the overall question of whether Canada is a better place to live. Only 60% think they have better health care than they would have in the US, and only just over a third think Canada is a better place to earn a living and enjoy life.

UNVACCINATED FOR COVID

Only half of this group think living in Canada means being safer from violence or having better health care.  A plurality thinks they would be better off financially and enjoy life more living in the United States.

UPSHOT

“Many Canadians have watched with growing concern developments in the US in recent years.  While they are able to see lots of room for improvement in Canada – we see that in all of our surveys – they’ve also become more worried that the US is heading in a bad direction.

Envy about the American Dream is not really in evidence, or at least envy of the American reality isn’t.  It’s interesting that those who tend to think life in the US is better skew younger and male and the kind of conservatives who’ve been at the forefront of opposing vaccinations.

There may be some irony in the way in which the theme of Canadian pride has been used – when these groups show less conviction that Canada, at least as it currently exists, is a better place to live. However, it’s not hard to imagine that the message of more freedom resonates with this relatively small subset of the public.”

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from July 11 to 17, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6% 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian PoliticsCOVID-19MediaPollsTechnology

COVID worries continue to decline

We completed a national survey of 2,400 Canadian adults from July 22 to 27, 2022

LOWEST LEVEL OF WORRY SINCE THE PANDEMIC BEGAN

Just 15% say they are extremely worried or worried a lot about Covid19, which is down from our reading in mid-July and the lowest number we have seen since the beginning of the pandemic in March of 2020. Just 30% say their level of concern has increased in recent days, also a relatively low number based on our tracking data.

THOSE SURE THEY WERE INFECTED RISE 3 POINTS IN A COUPLE OF WEEKS

A total of 28% say they are sure they had Covid, and another 9% believe they probably did. Less than half the adult population (47%) are sure they did not have Covid yet.

A QUARTER OF THOSE INFECTED SAY THEIR SYMPTOMS WERE BAD

Three out of four people who believe they were infected say that their symptoms were uncomfortable but not bad or had hardly any symptoms. A quarter (26%) described symptoms as bad or very bad.

WHAT PEOPLE EXPECT OF COVID IN THE COMING MONTHS

Most (66%) expect there will be lots of Covid infections, but symptoms will be generally mild in the coming months. 15% say there will be a lot of severe illness and hospitalizations. 20% believe that fewer and fewer will be ill and eventually, Covid will disappear.

WHAT DO CANADIANS WANT GOVERNMENT TO DO

These expectations that Covid will continue to bring mostly mild symptoms influence preferences for governments’ approach. 52% say governments should be willing to re-introduce measures to control the spread of infections if things get worse, but “don’t push too hard,” while 26% say that under no circumstances would they like to see the government put in mask vaccine and other rules. Only 23% (down 3 points in a couple of weeks) say the government should take all possible measures to reduce the spread of the disease, even if it means returning to the way things were earlier in the pandemic.

VACCINATION LEVELS (SELF-REPORTED)

One in ten adults in our sample said they had not been vaccinated for Covid. Over a quarter have had one or two shots (the majority of these said two shots). Just under half have had one booster, and 20% have had two.

Vaccination uptake varies substantially according to age, as would be somewhat expected given the timing of access to boosters. Still, it has also been true that younger people were more hesitant about taking the Covid vaccine compared to older people.

WILL PEOPLE TAKE ANOTHER VACCINATION IF RECOMMENDED THIS FALL

Less than half of those who are vaccinated against Covid are certain they will take another shot if that is recommended this fall or winter. Hesitance or refusal is highest among those under 45, those with lower levels of formal education, those who dislike the Prime Minister, those in rural areas, and People’s Party voters.

UPSHOT

“Canadians have not concluded that Covid is gone from their lives, but most have – for the moment anyway – decided that the level of serious illness is lower than it was and low enough for them to hesitate about the prospect of another wave requiring the imposition of mandates and other restrictions on everyday life.  Take up of vaccines has been largely a success story, but there is some reason to believe that if the same level of vaccination is necessary to tame future waves, more people need to be ready to take the next shot that says they are ready to do that today.”

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 2,400 Canadian adults from July 22 to 27, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.0% 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

COVID-19MediaPollsTechnology

Conservative lead widens as unhappiness with federal government and Prime Minister Trudeau grows

We just completed a national survey of 2,400 Canadian adults from July 22 to 27, 2022.

NATIONAL MOOD 

Today 33% of Canadians think the country is headed in the right direction, which is 8-10 points below where things were a year ago. Views of the direction of the world and the United States have hit lows we haven’t seen since Donald Trump was US President.

DISAPPROVAL OF THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT HITS NEW HIGH

Approval of the federal government is sagging. Today, 34% approve of the government’s performance, down 4-points this month, while disapproval has spiked to 51% (up 5 points in two weeks), the highest number ever recorded since the Trudeau government was elected in 2015 and the highest since March 2019 in the middle of the SNC Lavalin controversy.

IMPRESSIONS OF PM TRUDEAU

This survey finds 51% offering a negative view of Justin Trudeau, which is the highest number we have recorded since 2015.  Today 31% have a positive impression of Mr. Trudeau, which is also the lowest number we’ve recorded.

His -20 net score compares to a -7 net score for Conservative leadership candidate Pierre Poilievre and the -5 for Jean Charest.

Among those who self-describe on the left of the spectrum, Trudeau is 47% positive and 35% negative. Among those in the centre, he is only 27% positive and 50% negative. He is 19% positive and 73% negative among those on the right.  Trudeau’s negatives are 50% or higher in every income group.

Regionally, the Prime Minister’s net score is -17 in BC, -54 in Alberta, -46 in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, -16 in Ontario, -11 in Quebec, and -2 in Atlantic Canada.

Among those who voted Liberal in 2021, his net score is +64. Among Conservative voters, it is -80, -47 among BQ voters, and among NDP voters, it is -24.

Just to underscore how unhappy Conservative supporters are with Mr. Trudeau, 65% have a “very negative” view of Mr. Trudeau – almost double the national average of 34%.

CONSERVATIVE LEADERSHIP

We will do more in an upcoming release about the Conservatives and their leadership race, but it is worth noting that among those who voted Liberal in 2021, only 39% have a negative view of Pierre Poilievre, and 12% have a positive view – the plurality (49%) are neutral towards the presumed Conservative front runner.

Among those on the centre of the spectrum, Poilievre is 15% positive, 20% negative, meaning a lot of centrist votes are up for grabs – and his -5 net score with this group compares favourably to Trudeau’s -23.

VOTING INTENTION

If an election were held now, the Conservatives would win 35% compared to 30% for the Liberals and 19% for the NDP. Compared with our last survey, the Conservatives are up 3-points while the Liberals are down 2.

The People’s Party registers just 4% in this wave, which may suggest that the Conservatives are picking up support from the PPC as well as from the Liberals.

This is the first time since the 2015 election that we have measured Conservative vote share at 35% and the first time in which the Conservatives have led the Liberals consistently for several months.

• BC: Conservatives and the NDP are at 32%, and the Liberals at 24%.

• Alberta: 53% would vote Conservative compared with 23% for the NDP, 13% for the Liberal Party, and 6% for the People’s Party.

• Manitoba and Saskatchewan: The Conservatives lead with 52% followed by the NDP at 27%, the Liberals at 17%, and the People’s Party at 9%.

• Ontario: The Liberals and the Conservatives are tied at 35%, with the NDP at 21%. The People’s Party is polling at 5% in Ontario.

• Quebec: We see the BQ and Liberals basically tied (31% to 32%) with the Conservatives at 21%, and the NDP at 6%.

• Atlantic: The Liberals are well ahead of the Conservatives (47% to 31%), with the NDP in third at 16%.

Among those who self-identify in the centre of the political spectrum (49% of the electorate), the Conservatives lead by 4 over the Liberals (33% to 29%), while the Conservatives lead by 48 among those on the right and the Liberals lead by 12 (over the NDP) among those on the left.

Also, among those centrist voters, the Conservatives have a slightly larger pool of accessible voters, but all three main parties have similar sized pools: 48% would consider voting Conservative, 44% would consider voting Liberal, and 44% would consider voting NDP.

One final point, when we compare how people say they voted in September 2021 (the last federal election) and how they would vote today, the Conservative Party is holding onto 92% of its past vote while gaining a little from the Liberals, NDP, and a considerable portion of past PPC voters.

The NDP is holding 82% of its past vote while gaining 9% of past Liberal voters.

The Liberal Party is holding 81% of its past vote (losing 9% to the NDP, and 6% to the Conservatives) while gaining 7% from the NDP.

The BQ is holding 95% of its past support (losing 4% to the Conservatives).

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “These numbers are a clear signal to the Liberals that many voters, including large numbers of people on the centre of the spectrum, are restless. The Conservatives are highly competitive, views of Pierre Poilievre are more neutral than some might expect, and not very many people feel good about the direction of the country.”

According to David Coletto: “These results should be a warning sign to the Liberals that they have entered unchartered territory for their government. For the first time in our tracking, 50% or more of people disapprove of the government’s job performance. The Prime Minister’s negatives have also hit a new high. It is a toxic cocktail when people are unhappy with the direction of the country and they disapprove of the government’s performance. That’s where we are today. The result is a wider Conservative Party lead and growing desire for change.”

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 2,400 Canadian adults from July 22 to 27, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.0% 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.



Canadian PoliticsCOVID-19MediaPolls

Over 7 million Canadians are certain they had COVID-19

We completed a national survey of 1,500 Canadian adults from July 11 to 17, 2022.

THOSE WHO ARE SURE THEY WERE INFECTED DOUBLED SINCE FEBRUARY

A total of 25% say they are sure they had COVID and another 11% believe they probably did. Only 51% are sure they did not have COVID yet.

A THIRD OF THOSE INFECTED SAY THEIR SYMPTOMS WERE BAD

Most of those who say they were infected say that their symptoms were uncomfortable but not bad or had hardly any symptoms. A third (32%) described symptoms as bad or very bad.

People under 45 are considerably more likely than older people to report having contracted COVID. So too are those who have had vaccinations.

WHAT DO PEOPLE EXPECT OF COVID IN THE COMING MONTHS

Most people (61%) expect there will be lots of COVID infections, but symptoms will be generally mild in the coming months. 17% say there will be a lot of severe illness and hospitalizations. 22% believe that fewer and fewer will be ill and eventually, COVID will disappear.

These perceptions affect how Canadians want governments to react. Half say that governments should be willing to re-introduce measures to control the spread of infections but “don’t push too hard.”

Another 25% say that under no circumstances would they like to see the government put in mask vaccine and other rules. Just one in four (26%) are ready to say the government should take all possible measures to reduce the spread of the disease, even if it means returning to the way things were earlier in the pandemic.

Feelings about additional measures are somewhat different by age, and political leaning, with older people more inclined to support additional measures if needed compared to younger people. Conservative and People’s Party supporters are more inclined to oppose new measures.

WILL PEOPLE TAKE ANOTHER VACCINATION

While roughly 90% of adults have taken at least one vaccination against COVID-19 if another dose is recommended in the fall, just 39% are confident that they would take the shot, and another 20% say they probably would. As with prior months, younger people are more reluctant than older people. The unvaxxed are most adamant that they will not change their position and take a shot if recommended.

UPSHOT

“Public opinion around COVID is a lot different at this moment in time compared to earlier in the pandemic.

Many people have had first or close second-hand experience with the virus, which has shaped their feelings about risk and what to do to mitigate it. The fact that most had or witnessed mild symptoms in later waves – and after vaccinations – has made people think the virus is less worrying.

The combination of these shifts in knowledge and sentiment put governments in a challenging spot – the numbers don’t absolve the government of expectations to manage a worsening situation if that comes to pass, but they also show that patience for a return to interventions and restrictions is low right now.”

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from July 11 to 17, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6% 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

COVID-19MediaPollsTechnology