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November 16, 2020

By Bruce Anderson & David Coletto

Our latest national polling data shows that an election held today would see the Liberals with 38% support, 8-percentage points ahead of the Conservatives. This is the largest lead for the Liberals since June and a 4-point gain in about a month. The Liberals lead in every part of the country except the Prairie provinces, where the Conservatives have the upper hand.

In this survey, we also offered a list of issues and asked people to indicate which two mattered most to how they might vote if there were an election now.

The results show that having a plan to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic and a plan for the future of the economy are the two most important issues on voters’ minds today, while significant numbers also said jobs, climate change, spending and taxation, and improving equality were also important.

When we examine the voting intentions of those who say they are preoccupied with each issue, the results show that the Liberals enjoy a 19-point lead among those for whom a COVID-19 plan is critical. The Conservatives have a slight lead among those who say a plan for the future of the economy matters greatly.

The Liberals and Conservatives are statistically tied on “protect jobs and create jobs” while the Liberals have a large lead on “climate change” and “improving equality”. The Conservatives have a substantial lead over the Liberals among those for whom finding the right balance between spending and taxation matters greatly.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “The last year has shown that Liberal support can fluctuate significantly – within an 8 point band from high to low. Conservative support on the other hand has traded narrowly in a 3 point band from a low of 29% to a high of 32%. Earlier in the year, when COVID-19 was the dominant discussion in the country, Liberal support rose, and then through the summer as the WE Charity issue captured some attention, Liberal support sagged. Heading into a crucial winter with the combination of rising infection rates and worries about economic, physical and mental health at the fore, support for the Liberals has ticked up again.

These data can be interpreted as a signal to opposition parties that COVID and the future of the economy are on voters’ minds, and they want steady management and clear thinking about how to get the country back to normal as quickly as is safe to do.

For the Conservatives, the numbers also signal their brand remains in weak shape among voters worried about two very topical contemporary issues – equality and climate change – in both cases, only 11% of voters who care about those issues would vote Conservative.”

According to David Coletto: “Rising concerns about the pandemic correlate with rising support for the incumbent Liberals. It’s the top issue for more voters and the Liberals have a large lead among those who say it will be their top or second most important issue.

At the same time, the US election has also likely helped the Liberals. Our polling finds a sharp rise in positive assessments for President-elect Biden and an improving outlook on the direction of the United States. Donald Trump remains deeply unpopular with more than 3 in 4 Canadians and his approach to the pandemic and reaction to the election results are in sharp contrast to our political leaders.”

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METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1,664 Canadian adults from November 6 to 12, 2020. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Good Decisions Require Good Data.