Each day during the 2021 Federal Election campaign, researchers at Abacus Data will share insights and analysis from our polling in concise, insights-focused reports. To never miss our polls and analysis, subscribe to our newsletter.
If you’ve spent some time in our parliamentary democracy, you’ll have caught on that power is centralized here. Very centralized.
A lot of that centralization happens around whoever is Prime Minister, who at some point in their career is an optimistic party leader trying to become one. It follows that voters for any given political party, come election time, are motivated to do so because of who is on top, with their view of the leader’s personality and values being the primary if not a strong tertiary driver of their vote intention.
Things don’t always play out that way. Looking at this year’s 3 main hopefuls we see one sticks out as the least established among his own support base; Erin O’Toole. While this is often experienced by new entrants who don’t have ancient pedigrees or a previous election to solidify their reputations, 1/3rd of CPC’s present-day voters are either O’Toole agnostic or antagonistic. In other words, they either have a negative view of him, are neutral, or don’t really know what to think. This is in notable contrast to both Justin Trudeau and Jagmeet Singh, most of whose voters are fond of their party leaders.
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THE DESPITE O’TOOLE VOTER
These “Despite O’Toole” voters are the fresher faces of the party base. The vast majority – 8 in 10 – are under the age of 60. Half have the LPC or NDP as their 2nd choice, and when we ask them about their ideal outcome for this election, a substantial proportion aren’t even looking for a Conservative majority government. In part, despite their present vote orientation, most assume the CPC won’t win at all, be it minority or majority. This is a striking attitudinal departure from O’Toole friendly voters, most of whom assume the CPC will win this time around.
Underscoring these views is a softer loyalty to the party. 2 in 3 of these CPC voters say they are either likely to change their vote (30%) or merely “somewhat unlikely” (39%).
They align with other CPC voters on most issues, including their priorities this election. They primarily are concerned about the cost of living and seeing a credible economic plan this campaign. And they like other brands of Conservatism, just not O’Toole’s. On average Premier Ford is more popular with this group than the federal CPC leader, with 70% feeling outright positively (30%) or neutral (39%) about the well-known Premier of Ontario.
Fundamentally they view the Conservative Party and where Erin O’Toole is taking it through a different lens than other Tory voters. Most of these voters reject that the CPC has the best outlook and ideas of all the parties, with most instead having concerns about where they would take the country should they get elected.
There’s enough of a pull towards the party that these younger Canadians would opt for the Conservatives over the Liberals and NDP, but they aren’t entirely confident in their choice. One of O’Toole’s many challenges will be not to lose these fair-weather Conservatives and convince them that the party leadership does have the plan and credibility to carry the country through an unprecedented economic and health crisis. Or at the very least to present one that consistently looks better than what the Prime Minister has had on offer.
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 1500 Canadian adults from August 9th to 12th, 2021. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.
Each day during the 2021 Federal Election campaign, researchers at Abacus Data will share insights and analysis from our polling in concise, insights-focused reports. To never miss our polls and analysis, subscribe to our newsletter.
Keeping with our weekly theme of top election issues, we wanted to know if there were any difference between men and women. As a note, the analysis below compares just men vs women as sample sizes for others were too small for analysis.
Unsurprisingly, cost of living tops the list for both men and women, though more women are including it in their top 5 than men (64% vs. 59%).
The differences between what men and women are prioritizing don’t end there. In addition to cost of living, women are prioritizing healthcare more than men, while men tend to be more likely to prioritize issues like an economic plan for Canada’s future, taxes, and government spending.
Does age have any impact on how men and women view the top issues?
Among the boomer generation, men and women have the same top five issues, but for four of them, place very different levels of importance on each. Among the top 5 issues, boomer women are more likely to prioritize cost of living, access to healthcare, climate change & the environment and the post-pandemic recovery plan. While men are distributing their priorities a little more evenly throughout the list, and placing more priority on taxes, government spending and pipelines.
And for millennials? There are some differences between men and women for sure, but they are not as stark as those seen among boomers.
Among millennials, women are more likely than men to be prioritizing cost of living and access to healthcare, and men are more likely to prioritize an economic plan for Canada’s recovery, but that’s where the large differences end. It seems that among this generation specific age is a better determinant of issue prioritization than gender.
THE UPSHOT According to Oksana Kishchuk: Like much of our other analysis, cost of living continues its dominant position as the top election issue, including both men and women. Still, it’s important to note it is a priority for more women than men.
This difference, and many of the other differences we see between men and women are not surprising, and in fact look very similar to numbers we saw just before the federal election in 2019. During that election we also saw women prioritizing healthcare and climate change more than men, and men more likely to prioritize taxes and government spending.
Given that these priorities have held steadfast for many years, and even through a pandemic, it’s likely that they will more or less remain the same throughout the campaign. Knowing this, we will be watching closely to see how each of the parties try to sell their ideas, especially those that are more of a priority for one gender than another.
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 3,000 Canadian adults from August 6 to 11, 2021. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.8%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.
Each day during the 2021 Federal Election campaign, researchers at Abacus Data will share insights and analysis from our polling in concise, insights-focused reports. To never miss our polls and analysis, subscribe to our newsletter.
Prior to the pandemic, and even before, the political environment has been ripe for affordability to not only dominate a federal election, but drive sharp generational divides. As just one example, when baby boomers were young adults it took them an average of 5 years of full-time work to save for a 20% down payment, compared to today where it will take young adults 14 years of full-time work. As the election kicks off the data from our pre-election survey is no different.
To start, cost of living makes an appearance in almost every generations list of top five issues.
The silent generation is the only one to have cost of living fall below their top 5 issues. Those in this older generation are prioritizing issues like climate change, access to healthcare, and plans for the future. While no party seems to be catering to this generation specifically, the issues the parties have focused on so far are more or less the top issues for these individuals.
Next up is the baby boomer generation, the top issues look fairly similar though cost of living has been shuffled to the top of the list, and by a large margin.
For boomers, cost of living, healthcare, climate change and the environment, and recovery plans are in the top 5 issues. Percentages aside, their top 5 list mirrors that of the average Canadian.
For Gen X voters, the list looks fairly similar, but cost of living continues to grow in importance.
Two thirds of Gen X voters place cost of living in their top 5 issues, and it has a sizable lead over any other issues in their top 5. Gen X (those 56 to 41 years old) likely have very different cost of living worries than millennials: think supporting children vs. purchasing a first home. Still, the importance of cost of living for this demographic is a reminder of how important cost of living is in this election.
Finally, millennials. Cost of living tops their list, and by an even greater margin. Among this generation, there is a 25-point gap between cost of living and the second most important issue, suggesting this is both a very important issue for this generation, but also the uniting issue across the generation.
Millennials may be the largest voting bloc but they are also the generation that spans the widest array of life stages. Some millennials are nearing 40, onto their second homes, have kids that are nearly teenagers, and are carrying all the costs associated with all these life events. Others are unemployed new grads with student loans, staring down a volatile housing market, but currently have less financial pressures on them when it comes to their own expenses and perhaps more optimism about the future.
Looking at the data these priorities are reflected fairly well. Cost of living is still a top issue for both older and younger millennials (and Gen Z), but younger millennials and Gen Z are in fact placing more importance on the social issues we might expect younger people to be passionate about.
On social issues we see some pretty significant differences on climate change & the environment, poverty and inequality, and reconciliation with indigenous peoples (all are more important for younger millennials + Gen Z). And on the other end, older millennials are more concerned with taxes, and government spending.
Still, what unites this generation and sets it apart from others is cost of living. Millennials as a whole are almost entirely aligned with boomers on social issues like climate change & the environment and indigenous reconciliation, and even on housing (only 1 or 2 points different). But with cost of living, there is a 19-point gap between the percentage of boomers that placed this as a top 5 issue, and the percentage of millennials.
THE UPSHOT According to Oksana Kishchuk: The millennials that helped secure the Liberal win in 2015 have grown up. For older millennials they’ve had six more years to pay taxes, watch government spending and compare it to their own life expenses, and attempt to secure a starter home that will help catapult them through the housing market instead of set them back.
And for younger millennials (and Gen Z) they’ve evaluated progress on climate change commitments, read the news about unmarked graves from residential schools and seen inequality in Canada rise from pandemic impacts.
The Trudeau Liberals are once again attempting to capture these two sides of the young voter – trying to position themselves as the party fighting for the middle class to quell affordability concerns and the party fighting for social issues, namely climate change. But two weeks, never mind six years, can change things in politics.
Our latest numbers show the NDP, who are focusing heavily on the millennial vote by promising social policies to address affordability, have a slight lead over the Liberals among young voters.
And the Conservatives, despite low polling numbers among young voters, could capture these voters using their fiscal solutions for addressing affordability and cost of living.
As parties continue to roll out their messaging and platforms on Canadians top issues we will continue to monitor the moods of each generation, and how they feel throughout the campaign.
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 3,000 Canadian adults from August 6 to 11, 2021. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.8%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.
Each day during the 2021 Federal Election campaign, researchers at Abacus Data will share insights and analysis from our polling in concise, insights-focused reports. To never miss our polls and analysis, subscribe to our newsletter.
This election season comes at a critical moment for Canadians. As we continue the fight against COVID-19, we’ve seen Indigenous peoples from across the nation call for accountability in the wake of mass gravesite discoveries, countless Black Canadians take to the streets in protest of police brutality, and many conversations and conflicts regarding the national housing crisis. As people across the nation fight for a better Canada, this election provides an opportunity to make meaningful change for all – Including LGBTQ2S+ communities.
LGBTQ2S+ communities across Canada have a unique outlook on our nation and politics. Having experienced a different life than many other Canadians, LGBTQ2S+ communities across the nation have struggled and persevered in ways others might not have had to. Similarly, the LGBTQ2S+ community and its allies hold a truly unique perspective when it comes to voting in federal elections.
In our pre-election survey (conducted August 6 to 11 with 3,000 Canadians overall, 259 of which self-identified as LGBTQ2S+), we find that among the LGBTQ2S+ community, the NDP lead by 5-points over the Liberals. The LGBTQ2S+ community is twice as likely to vote for the NDP, and half as likely to vote for the Conservatives than the general population. Interestingly, the Liberal vote remains consistent between Canadians overall and the LGBTQ2S+ community. It is important to note that this sample is much younger than the general population, which most likely explains their views on the NDP and Jagmeet Singh.
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Vote drivers differ slightly among the LGBTQ2S+ community when compared to the general population. Cost of living (63%), climate change and the environment(57%), and poverty and inequality (56%) are the top vote drivers for LGBTQ2S+ Canadians. Among the general population, cost of living (61%), Access to health care (47%), and climate change and the environment (45%) top the list of vote drivers. Interestingly, taxes and government spending were significantly lower drivers for those in the LGBTQ2S+ community on average.
LEADER IMPRESSIONS
It is also the case that LGBTQ2S+ communities across Canada have a unique perception of their political leaders. Among these communities, Singh is a stand-out favourite, with 63% holding a positive impression of him. This is followed by Trudeau (38%), Paul (19%), and O’Toole (11%) respectively.
Among all the leaders, Jagmeet Singh has the highest net positive impression at +49. Positive impressions are highest among previous NDP voters, Males aged 18-29, Females aged 30-44, and those living in Ontario.
Justin Trudeau enjoys a positive impression among 38% and negative impressions among 36%, for a net score of +2. Positive impressions are significantly higher among males aged 30-44.
Erin O’Toole enjoys a positive impression among 11% and negative impressions among 55%, for a net score of -44. Females aged 60+, Males aged 30-44, and those living in Atlantic Canada are among the most likely to hold a positive impression of O’Toole.
UPSHOT
Although the Liberals have been leading the polls recently, vote intention and the impressions of political leaders among the LGBTQ2S+ community we surveyed paint a different picture.
Jagmeet Singh and the NDP have clearly built a strong affinity among the LGBTQ2S+ community while the Conservatives struggle to even register with this community.
With an estimated 900,000 LGBTQ2S+ Canadians and countless allies across the nation, will this be enough to sway the vote?
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 3,000 Canadian adults from August 6 to 11, 2021. A total of A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.8%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
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ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.
We just completed a national survey of 1,500 Canadian adults (August 12 to 16) with about 30% of the interviews done after the election announcement on Sunday.
Here’s what we are seeing:
MOOD OF THE COUNTRY
There’s been a five-point drop in the number of Canadians feeling the country is headed in the right direction, as the number of COVID cases rise over the last week. Now, 41% feel the country is headed in the right direction while 42% feel it’s off on the wrong track.
Views about the direction of the US and the world also have become more negative since last week as events in Afghanistan and the 4th wave in the US dominate news coverage.
FEELINGS ABOUT THE PANDEMIC
This downward shift in mood is likely attributable to growing concerns about the COVID-19 pandemic. When asked whether they are getting more or less worried about the pandemic over the past few days, 38% say they are getting more worried – up 5-points in a week, and 23-points in a month. Today, 24% believe the worst of the pandemic is still to come (a 9-point increase in a month).
GOVERNMENT APPROVAL
Today 44% approve of the job being done by the Trudeau government, while 41% disapprove – a 4-point increase in those disapproving over the past week.
LEADER IMPRESSIONS
Justin Trudeau enjoys a positive impression among 40% and negative impressions among 44%, for a net score of -3. Negative impressions of Mr. Trudeau are up 3-points since last week.
Jagmeet Singh enjoys a positive impression among 39% and finds negative impressions among 24% for a net +15. Impressions of Mr. Singh are largely unchanged from last week.
Erin O’Toole enjoys a positive impression among 20% and finds negative impressions among 41%, for a net score of -21. Impressions of Mr. O’Toole are also largely unchanged from last week.
HOW DOES THIS TRANSLATE INTO VOTE INTENTION?
If an election were held now, the Liberals would win 33% of the vote (down 4 from our last measurement point), the Conservatives 28% (unchanged), the NDP 22% (up 2), the Green Party 5% (unchanged) and the BQ at 31% in Quebec (9-points higher than in our last survey).
• In BC, we find a three-way race with the Liberals at 31%, the Conservatives at 30%, and the NDP at 29%. The Greens are at 7%.
• In Alberta, 39% would vote Conservative compared with 29% for the NDP and 23% for the Liberals, and 6% for the People’s Party.
• In Manitoba and Saskatchewan, the Conservatives lead the Liberals and NDP by almost 30 points, 48% to 19% and 19%.
• The Liberals (with 36%) have a 6-point lead over the Conservatives (30%) in Ontario, with the NDP at 24% and the Green Party at 5%. The People’s Party is at 5% in Ontario.
• In Quebec, we see the Liberals with 34%, followed by the BQ (31%), the Conservatives (14%) and the NDP at 10%. The Greens are at 8% in Quebec.
• In the Atlantic provinces, the Liberals (47%) are well ahead of the NDP (26%) and the Conservatives (20%).
We are also testing levels of motivation, by asking people how likely they are to turn out and cast a ballot on election day. Among the 70% of respondents who said they would definitely be voting, the Liberals lead by a 3-point margin: 33% Liberal, 30% Conservative, 21% NDP, 8% BQ and 4% Green. 3% would vote for the People’s Party.
UPSHOT
According to Bruce Anderson: “We’ll evaluate events on a continuous basis during this sprint to Election Day. At this point, I’m hesitant to conclude anything about a shift in mood, we’re in the middle of summer, engagement levels are uncertain, and parties and leaders have only begun to make their pitches. I’ll continue to watch for the same things – will Jagmeet Singh be able to turn interest in him into capturing Liberal votes in key battleground regions, will Erin O’Toole be able to overcome hesitancy about his party and himself personally and will Justin Trudeau make a persuasive and galvanizing case for the policy choices he’s advocating especially around vaccines and affordable child care.
According to David Coletto: “Within a few weeks, a 12-point Liberal lead has shrunk to a 5-point lead as the race in Ontario and BC has tightened. The NDP has gained a few points while the Conservatives remain stuck just below 30%.
Given that only a portion of this survey was done after the election call, it’s too early to say whether the opposition parties’ criticism of the early election call is having much impact, but there’s some indication that the rise of COVID-19 cases is increasing anxiety and the mood of the public seems to be shifting.
This shift may ultimately play to the Liberal Party’s advantage as previous research has found most think the government has handled the pandemic well and support for vaccine mandates is strong across the country. It might expose it to concerns about holding an election during the 4th wave of the pandemic.”
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from August 12 to 16, 2021. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
The survey was commissioned and paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.
Each day during the 2021 Federal Election campaign, researchers at Abacus Data will share insights and analysis from our polling in concise, insights-focused reports. To never miss our polls and analysis, subscribe to our newsletter.
Although many Canadians say they are financially better off or have not been impacted by the pandemic, the cost of living is clearly the top issue for most people as this election campaign kicks off.
Last week we released some new data with the Broadbent Institute and the Professional Institute of the Public Service of Canada about the role affordability, tax fairness, and paying for the pandemic may have in the campaign.
In our own pre-election survey, we find that 62% of respondents ranked the cost of living as one of the top 5 issues that will drive their vote this election. This is higher than any other issue and has increased by 7-points since this point of the 2019 federal election campaign.
But the cost of living isn’t the only “affordability” issue respondents rank high. We also see taxes, housing, and the cost of prescription drugs as being important to at least 1 in 4 eligible voters.
And the power of affordability as an issue is that it crosses the political spectrum. It is the top issue for Conservative and NDP voters and the second-highest among Liberal voters (climate change is the top issue for Liberals – more to come on that later this week).
Political leaders and candidates can expect to be asked their plans on the cost of living as household budgets get squeezed and perceptions of this problem increase. In this environment, there’s absolutely no appetite for tax increases (except on the wealthiest Canadians).
For businesses and associations that represent them, there will be pressure on policymakers to ease this pressure and as we have found in the past, there’s broad support for policy tools that force companies to lower their prices.
The 2019 campaign started as the affordability election. Will the 2021 one repeat that?
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 3,000 Canadian adults from August 6 to 11, 2021. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.8%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.
Each day during the 2021 Federal Election campaign, researchers at Abacus Data will share insights and analysis from our polling in concise, insights-focused reports. To never miss our polls and analysis, subscribe to our newsletter.
Let’s face it, apart from political junkies like me, most people don’t love politics. Elections matter but some elections are more interesting than others. Some are close and the outcome unpredictable. Others have a defining issue that galvanizes voters and spikes interest. Others are change elections that mobilize voters to “throw the bums out” while others feature dynamic, new political leaders that excite voters.
Will voters be engaged or not in this election?
In our pre-election survey of 3,000 Canadians, we asked how interested respondents were in the upcoming election on a scale from 1 to 10.
Overall, interest in this election appears as high as measured in the second week of the 2019 campaign.
70% of respondents said they have a high level of interest (7 to 10) while another 21% said they were moderately interested (4 to 6) while 9% said they had little interest in the campaign (1 to 3).
Back in September 2019, 69% said they had a high interest in the campaign. So early indications are that Canadians are as engaged as they were back in 2019 despite it being in summer and perhaps because it’s coming in the midst of a global pandemic.
Our survey finds that older Canadians are more interested than younger Canadians while those planning to vote Liberal or Conservative are more likely to have high interest than those planning to vote NDP, Green, or Bloc Quebecois.
UPSHOT
Too often pundits and commentators decry the lack of interest in politics or suggest that interest in any given election will be low without evidence to back up their claim.
I recall this happening during the 2019 campaign.
But early indications from our research suggest that Canadians are as interested in this election as they were back in 2019. That could change of course – interest could increase or dissipate as the campaign progresses.
Interest in the election and politics more generally matters a lot. It impacts voter turnout (definitely read this book about it), it could impact differential turnout (supporters of certain parties being more motivated to vote than others), and it impacts how people react to campaign events. An electorate engaged in a campaign will be paying closer attention and therefore could react more to the campaign.
More importantly this time, despite a summer election call in the midst of the 4th wave of COVID-19 cases, most Canadians say they are at least moderately interested in this campaign.
Let’s not assume no one is paying attention. The Trump era in the US taught us that elections and politics matter. Canadians are paying attention, so far, this time.
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 3,000 Canadian adults from August 6 to 11, 2021. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.8%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.
Along with polling data, there are other data sources that can offer some insight into the dynamics of the election campaign.
Looking at what Canadians are searching for on Google is of particular interest. Not only because Google provides real-time, comparable data, but search behaviour can tell us what Canadians are interested in and looking for more information on. There’s some evidence in other domains that search data can be used to anticipate changes in public opinion.
We have create a few queries that we think you’ll find interesting.
These charts are automatically updated in real-time so check back often to see if, and how, things change over the course of the election.
PARTY LEADERS (Past 7 Days)
PARTY LEADERS – QUEBEC (Past 7 Days)
POLITICAL PARTIES (Past 7 Days)
CONSERVATIVE vs. MAVERICK vs. PEOPLE’S in ALBERTA (Past 30 Days)
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
For video interviews by Skype or Zoom or audio interviews, please contact David at 613-884-4730 or david@abacusdata.ca
In a survey I did for the Broadbent Institute back in March 2019, I described the mood at the time as affordability anxiety – a feeling that your income is not covering your day-to-day expenses and your ability to cover those expenses will only get harder, not easier.
This year, we asked several of the same questions again in a survey we did for the Broadbent Institute and the Professional Institute of the Public Service of Canada.
Here’s what we found:
1. Affordability anxiety persists. 83% of Canadians worry at least a little about their cost of living, with 39% saying they are pretty or very worried. Overall, this is slightly down from 2019 but remains elevated. Younger Canadians and those in households earning less than $50,000 per year were more likely to feel worried about their cost of living rising.
2. Affordability anxiety crosses the political spectrum but highest among Green, NDP and undecided voters. Worry about a rising cost of living crosses the political spectrum. Those who say they are pretty or very worried about their cost of living rising by current vote:
Liberal – 33%
Conservative – 31%
NDP – 46%
Green – 51%
BQ – 41%
Undecided voters – 49%
3. Cost of living, healthcare, and housing affordability are the top three vote drivers. When asked which three issues are most likely to impact how they vote, cost of living (35%), healthcare (33%) and housing affordability (28%) along with economic growth and job creation were in the top four.
4. The pandemic has hurt the personal finances of 1 in 3 Canadians – or almost 10 million people. 33% of Canadians say the pandemic left their household budget and savings worse off while 14% they are better off financially.
5. Most Canadians believe the cost of things they use day-to-day and the income differences between the richest 1% and your personal salary have gotten worse over the past 2 years. When assessing whether several things have gotten better or worse over the past two years, 64% feel the cost of things they use and consume day to day have gotten worse. Moreover:
53% think the income difference between the richest 1% and their salary is worse over the past two years.
42% say their ability to save for retirement has gotten worse over the past two years
41% say their feelings of stress about money has gotten worse over the past two years.
6. What would help make life more affordable? There’s no silver bullet and reactions depend on someone’s life stage and economic position. But millions of Canadians believe that covering more under public health care, ensuring everyone has a stable job with a decent wage, and taxing wealthier Canadians and large corporations more to pay for better public services for everyone would help.
For others, forcing companies to reduce prices, cutting taxes for middle and working-class Canadians, and making childcare more affordable would help a lot.
Those under 30 are more likely to think the following would help make their life more affordable:
Making childcare more affordable, raising the minimum wage, reducing tuition fees, creating incentives to encourage employers to raise wages, improving public transit and reducing transit fees, and making it easier for workers to unionize.
Those aged 60 and over are more likely to think the following would help make their life more affordable:
Covering more services under public healthcare, taxing wealthier Canadians and large corporations more to pay for better public services for everyone, and forcing companies to reduce the prices they charge for things.
Although the level of affordability anxiety is lower than it was in 2019, it remains widespread, especially for those most hurt financially by the pandemic and is a top vote driver for over 1 in 3 Canadians – higher than any other issue.
Millions of Canadians worry about being able to afford their lives as pressure from rising costs and stagnant wages increase anxiety.
People believe the pandemic has made things worse. Not only do those most impacted by the pandemic feel even more anxious about affordability, but many feel the pandemic has increased inequality between the richest and everyone else.
The connection between affordability anxiety and perceptions of increasing income and wealth inequality is clear. Concerns about wages and income, job security, and rising prices are colliding with growing uncertainty about the sustainability of public services with a large deficit and more debt along with an uncertain economic recovery.
As we approach a federal election campaign and party leaders and candidates debate how best to deal with the federal deficit and affordability issues – these results clearly indicate that most Canadians will react negatively to ideas that they feel will make their lives more expensive. In contrast, as we have seen in the previous research we released, there’s broad appetite for asking those with the most to pay a bit more.
Protecting public services and keeping costs down for middle- and lower-income Canadians while asking those with the most to pay more to cover the cost of the pandemic and the recovery is a cross-partisan, broadly supported approach.
METHODOLOGY
Our survey was conducted online with 1,500 Canadians aged 18 and over from July 13 to 19, 2021. A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.
We just completed a national survey of 3,000 Canadian adults (August 6 to 11, 2021).
As we head towards a likely election call in the next few weeks, here’s our latest look at the Canadian political environment.
HOW WILL CANADIANS REACT TO AN EARLY ELECTION CALL?
While only a minority prefer an election now, the vast majority (83%) won’t be upset at Mr. Trudeau if he asks the Governor General for an early election.
When asked, “If the Prime Minister asks for an election to be held this fall saying he would like to give Canadians a chance to select the government they want to take the country forward, how would you feel about this?” 38% say they would be happy to have a chance to cast a ballot and help choose the government to take us forward, 44% would prefer not to have an election but it isn’t something that would affect how they vote, while 17% say they would be upset at Mr. Trudeau because an election seems unnecessary.
Most (72% of the 17%) of those who would be upset about an election call are supporters of opposition parties – 40% Conservatives, 17% NDP, and 8% BQ.). 28% are Liberal supporters.
Among current Liberal supporters, 13% would be upset. Among accessible Liberals (those open to voting Liberal but don’t support the party), 17% would be upset.
WHAT IF THERE’S A 4TH COVID WAVE?
We asked how people would react if a fourth COVID wave happens during an election campaign. Two-thirds (66%) say it wouldn’t have any effect on how they vote, 20% would be angry enough not to vote Liberal while 14% say they would be more likely to vote Liberal because they feel they have don’t a reasonable job already managing the pandemic.
Those who say they would be angry enough not to vote Liberal include 10% of current Liberal supporters and 20% of accessible Liberals.
MOOD OF THE COUNTRY
If a campaign starts imminently, Canadians will be in a far better mood than they were at the start of the 2019 campaign – 46% think the country is headed in the right direction. This is near the highest it has been in over 5 years and 11-points higher than at the start of the 2019 campaign.
In contrast, views about the direction of the US and the world more generally have turned more negative. While 38% of Canadians felt the US was headed in the right direction in June, today 25% feel the same way – a 13-point swing likely related to the rapid increase in COVID-19 cases in the US among the large unvaccinated population.
GOVERNMENT APPROVAL
Today 45% approve of the job being done by the Trudeau government, while 37% disapprove – which is the lowest disapproval rating since January 2021. This +8 net score nationally breaks down to a +15 in BC, -20 in Alberta, -13 in Man/Sask, +15 in Ontario, +8 in Quebec, +27 in Atlantic Canada.
DESIRE FOR CHANGE
Over the past few months, the desire for change has inched up but is still far below views held at the end of the last campaign in 2019.
Today, 43% say it’s definitely time for a change in government while another 23% think it would be good to have a change (66% want change), but it’s not that important to them. In contrast, 20% say it’s definitely best to keep the Liberals in office while another 13% would like to keep the Liberals but say it’s not that important to them (33% want Liberals re-elected).
To put this in context, the strong desire for change is 9-points lower overall today than when Canadians voted on Election Day in 2019 (43% vs. 52%) – an election in which the Liberals won the most seats in the House of Commons.
LEADER IMPRESSIONS
Justin Trudeau enjoys a positive impression among 40% and negative impressions among 41%, for a net score of -1. Views of Mr. Trudeau have been stable for most of 2021. In August 2019, 33% had a positive impression of Mr. Trudeau compared with 45% who had a negative view for a net score of -12.
Mr. Trudeau is more popular with women (+7), Atlantic Canadians (+19), Ontarians (+8), and those who self-ID as a racialized Canadian (+20). Among Liberal supporters he is +83 and among Liberal accessible voters (those open but not currently voting Liberal) he is +23.
Jagmeet Singh enjoys a positive impression among 40% and finds negative impressions among 24% for a net score of +16. Mr. Singh has had a net positive impression for the entire period since the previous election. In August 2019, Mr. Singh’s positives were 25% and negatives were 28% for a net score of -3.
Mr. Singh is more popular with those under 30 (+37), women (+25) and those in BC (+30). Among NDP supporters he is +83 and among NDP accessible voters (those open but not currently voting NDP) he is +54.
Erin O’Toole enjoys a positive impression among 22% and finds negative impressions among 41%, for a net score of -19. In August 2019, Mr. O’Toole’s predecessor Andrew Scheer had positives at 33% and negatives at 36% for a net score of -3.
Among Conservative supporters, he is +62 and among Conservative accessible voters (those open but not currently voting Conservative) he is +13 with a majority saying they have either neutral views of him or don’t know enough to have an opinion.
In short, the Liberal and NDP leaders are both in stronger reputational shape than they were in 2019 and the Conservative leader is in a worse position. Trudeau has improved by a net 11, Singh by a net 19 and O’Toole is a net 16 worse than where Scheer was at.
HOW DOES THIS TRANSLATE INTO VOTE INTENTION?
If an election were held now, the Liberals would win 37% of the vote, the Conservatives 28%, the NDP 20%, the Green Party 5% and the BQ at 22% in Quebec (15-points behind the Liberals and down 9 points since earlier this month). The People’s Party captures 4% of the vote, the highest we have had in our tracking while the Maverick Party is at 0% nationally but registers a bit in Alberta (1%) and MB/SK (2%).
• In BC, we see the Liberals ahead of the NDP and Conservatives (36% to 29% and 26%). In 2019 the Conservatives won BC with 34% of the vote, followed by the Liberals at 26% and the NDP at 32%.
• In Alberta, 46% would vote Conservative compared with 22% for the NDP and 21% for the Liberals, 7% for the People’s Party and 3% for the Greens. In 2019, the Conservatives won 69% of the votes, compared to 14% for the Liberals and 12% for the NDP.
• In Manitoba and Saskatchewan, the Conservatives are only slightly ahead of the Liberals (36% to 31%).
• The Liberals (with 41%) have a 13-point lead over the Conservatives (28%) in Ontario, with the NDP at 22% and the Green Party at 5%. In 2019, the Liberals won 42% of the vote, compared to 33% for the Conservatives and 17% for the NDP, and 6% for the Green Party.
• In Quebec, we see the Liberals with 37%, followed by the BQ (22%), the Conservatives (19%) the NDP at 12%. In 2019, the Liberals won 34% of the vote compared to 32% for the BQ, 16% for the Conservatives and 11% for the NDP. The BQ is down by 9-points from earlier this month.
• In the Atlantic provinces, the Liberals (47%) are well ahead of the Conservatives (24%) and the NDP (21%).
We are also resuming testing levels of motivation, by asking people how likely they are to turn out and cast a ballot on election day. Among the 77% of respondents who said they would definitely be voting, the Liberals lead by 9 as well: 38% Liberal, 29% Conservative, 20% NDP, 5% BQ and 4% Green. 4% would vote for the People’s Party.
WHAT IMPACT COULD THE PEOPLE’S PARTY AND MAVERICK PARTY HAVE?
In this survey, we asked respondents whether they would consider voting People’s Party and the Maverick Party (in the west only) and also included the Maverick Party in our prompted vote intention question.
Overall, 18% of respondents are open to voting for the People’s Party while 11% of those living in Western Canada are open to voting for the Maverick Party. Both pools of accessible voters for these parties are much smaller than the other parties we ask about.
To assess where each might pull additional support, we explored what percentage of a party’s current supporters are open to voting for either party. Right now, 21% of Conservative supporters say they are open to voting People’s Party while 10% of Conservatives in Western Canada are open to the Maverick Party.
21% of Green supporters say they are open to voting for the People’s Party compared with 11% among Liberals and 13% among NDP supporters. 11% of BQ supporters in Quebec are open to voting for the People’s Party.
WHAT OUTCOME WOULD PEOPLE PREFER?
We asked respondents which of four outcomes they would prefer to see happen – a Liberal majority, a Liberal minority, a Conservative majority, or a Conservative minority.
Overall, 64% would prefer to see some form of Liberal government over a Conservative one (37% majority vs. 27% minority) while 36% would prefer to see some form of Conservative government over a Liberal one (26% majority vs 10% minority).
75% of current NDP supporters would prefer to see a Liberal government, including 26% who want a Liberal majority. Among BQ supporters, 58% would prefer a Liberal government while 42% would prefer a Conservative one.
Most interesting, among those open to voting Conservative – 34% would prefer to see a Liberal government including 16% who want to see a Liberal majority.
WHICH PARTY DO CANADIANS THINK WILL WIN?
Almost half of Canadians surveyed think the Liberals are going to win the election (45%) while 18% think the Conservatives will win and 9% think the NDP. 23% are unsure.
• Among Conservative supporters, 61% think the CPC will win while 20% think the Liberals will.
• Among Liberal supporters, 86% think the LPC will win while 4% think the Conservatives will.
• Among NDP supporters, 41% think the NDP will win while 35% think the Liberals will and only 9% think the Conservatives will. Among BQ supporters, 46% think the Liberals will win while 9% think the Conservatives will.
UPSHOT
According to Bruce Anderson: “Canadians don’t particularly want an election, but mostly won’t take umbrage at the prospect of one. The big questions for me are these:
How splintered is the Conservative coalition and is it/will it be as motivated as it has tended to be since the time of Stephen Harper? Fighting over marijuana legalization, carbon pricing, SNC Lavalin all seemed more rallying than umbrage with China and the other current points on offer from the Conservatives. Conservatives will have the most money but will they have the most motivated voters, especially given one in five of them think the Liberals will win?
Is the likeability of Jagmeet Singh going to translate into seats? Recently it seems the Liberals may have been working pretty hard to close off risks on the left and appeal to progressive voters who were disappointed in them. Will those voters mark a ballot for a strong NDP caucus or stay home, or vote Liberal?
Voters don’t usually reward governments but it’s hard not to imagine that the general satisfaction with the direction of the country and the handling of the pandemic is not part of the math that gives the Liberals the lead today. Will this election be as much about Justin Trudeau the leader as 2015 or 2019, or more about the policy direction he proposes and the lack of a strong desire for change.?
According to David Coletto: “If the federal election campaign kicks off this weekend, the Liberals remain in a strong position not only to win the most seats, but perhaps win a majority.
Few say they would be upset with the Prime Minister for the early election call (including only 13% of Liberal supporters) so the risk of backlash from an election seems small.
The mood of the country has not been this positive in years, fewer disapprove of the federal government’s performance than at any time in 2021, the desire for change remains much lower and dislike for Mr. Trudeau is far less intense. When the 2019 campaign started, the Liberals trailed the Conservatives by 4. Today they lead by 9.
But that doesn’t mean a Liberal victory is a forgone conclusion. There are a few things I’d watch closely.
The first is whether the NDP can capitalize on the goodwill Mr. Singh has developed. He’s the most popular leader and the NDP’s pool of accessible voters is larger today than when the 2019 campaign started. Perhaps more important, people think the Liberals will win giving those inclined to vote NDP freedom to vote NDP given the chance of a Conservative government seems so low.
Second, while Mr. O’Toole’s personal numbers are quite weak, many still don’t know much about him giving him an opportunity to introduce himself to people for the first time and try and change some people’s views of him. He starts the campaign well back and a short campaign may not give him enough time to catch up – but I wouldn’t completely count him and the Conservatives out at this point.
Finally, tracking interest in the campaign will be critical to understanding likely turnout. Who is more motivated and who will turnout? What impact will early voting and mail voting have? We will continue to track that over the campaign to better understand the impact of turnout on the outcome.
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 3,000 Canadian adults from August 6 to 11, 2021. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.8%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
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ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.
