The three main party leaders have been a huge part of the story of how this election has played out.  And the views of all three have shifted over the 11 week campaign.

The biggest shift has been rapid improvement in positive feeling about Mr. Trudeau.  Only 30% said they had a good feeling about him in July, today that number is 44%, 9 points better than Mr. Mulcair and 17 points better than Mr. Harper.

Negative feelings about the Liberal leader have been largely stable for 16 months, around 30%.  This implies that all of the negative advertising about Mr. Trudeau since that time, failed to increase resistance to the Liberal leader.

Tom Mulcair’s positives jumped sharply after the election of Rachel Notley, from third place at 27% to first at 41%, and have sagged 6 points since the campaign began.  The NDP leader’s negatives have almost doubled since July.

For Mr. Harper, positive feeling has been in a 25%-34% range over 16 months, however negative opinion has grown by 18 points in 2016, including a sharp rise in the last two weeks of this campaign.

At the start of the campaign, we probed images of the leaders in considerable detail, and have updated the same questions in this campaign concluding poll.  The results again show evidence that perceptions about Mr. Trudeau have improved considerably since the start of the campaign.

On 12 items tested, Mr. Trudeau leads or is tied for the lead on 11.  Mr. Harper leads on only one, and is tied on 3 others.  Mr. Mulcair leads on 2 and is tied on 3 others.

Among the other revealing findings in this probing:

• Trudeau has gained 9 points on “ready to be PM” (and is now tied with the others), 7 points on “a leader” and 6 points on “Smart. On all three of these, he is now tied with the other two leaders.
• In addition to improving his ratings on the above measures of competency, Trudeau is judged to be more empathetic, accountable and interesting than his rivals. We also measured “inspiring” for the first time. Mr. Trudeau scored 40%, 13 points better than Mr. Mulcair and 25 points ahead of Mr. Harper.
• Stephen Harper lost ground on 8 of the items we tracked over time. Most notable were slippages on “good heart”, “interesting” and “ethical”. His strongest images are as tough and smart; his weakest are on inspiring and interesting.
• Mulcair’s scores did not move all that much. He gained a few points for “smart” while losing ground on “tough” and “interesting”.

In the final wave of research, we also asked some new measures.  Most noteworthy is that Mr. Trudeau’s strongest attributes are hardworking (51% for Mr. Trudeau) and tries to improve (50% for Mr. Trudeau) along with smart (52%) from above.

• Hardworking – Trudeau 51%, Mulcair 51%, Harper 42%
• Tries to improve – Trudeau 50%, Mulcair 39%, Harper 21%
• Inspiring – Trudeau 40%, Mulcair 20%, Harper 15%
• Boring – Harper 39%, Mulcair 20%, Trudeau 14%
• Tired – Harper 32%, Mulcair 15%, Trudeau 10%
• Mean – Harper 31%, Mulcair 11%, Trudeau 7%

Upshot

However this campaign turns out for the Liberals, Mr. Trudeau will deserve a large measure of credit for a performance that has changed many voters’ impression of him.  It is also a reminder that conventional wisdom is sometimes proven wrong, that voter skepticism can be reversed, and that negative advertising doesn’t always work. Mr. Trudeau has positioned his party for significant gains, by convincing hesitant voters that he merits their consideration.

Methodology

Our survey was conducted online with 3,103 Canadians aged 18 and over from October 15, 2015 to October 17, 2015 survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys.   The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.8%, 19 times out of 20.  The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Throughout the campaign, we’ve been keeping an eye on how voters are predicting the outcome, as this can sometimes have an impact on their own decisions, strategic or otherwise.  In August of 2014, a year before the writs were dropped, 39% thought the Liberals would win, 25% picked the Conservatives and only 7% thought the NDP would win.

Over the months that followed, doubts about the Liberals set in and they dropped 22 points on this indicator, to the point where only 17% picked them as the likely winner, as the writ period began.  In the 11 weeks since, predictions of a Liberal victory have shot up to 44%, a new high.

During this year long period the Conservatives hit a high of 36% and have dropped to 22% now predicting a CPC victory.  The NDP which rose to a high of 26% this summer, have now dropped back down to 8%.

Much of the shift in momentum has to do with impressions of how the leaders have been performing on the campaign trail.  As the campaign period began, Tom Mulcair was picked as the top performing leader (24%), with Justin Trudeau (16%) tied with Stephen Harper (17%).

As the campaign draws to a close, 40% now say Justin Trudeau, a remarkable 23-point gain.  Thomas Mulcair has seen a parallel decline of 21 points from his peak, and now only 11% say he has performed best.  Stephen Harper was seen as the best performer by 17%.

Mr. Trudeau was seen as the best performing leader by a large margin in Quebec, Ontario and BC. In Quebec, his advantage over the NDP leader on this question was an extraordinary 35 points. Among Francophone Quebecers, the margin was the same, with Mr. Trudeau ahead by 35 points.

Finally among the roughly 60% of voters who most want change in this election, Trudeau was seen as the best performing leader by 53%, compared to 16% for Mr. Mulcair and 2% for Mr. Harper.

Methodology

Our survey was conducted online with 3,103 Canadians aged 18 and over from October 15, 2015 to October 17, 2015 survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys.   The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.8%, 19 times out of 20.  The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

In our final survey of the election campaign, we interviewed just over 900 people who had already voted at the advance polls, which amounted to 30% of our sample.  Worth noting is that advance turnout was roughly equal for men (31%) and women (29%), and similar in the three largest provinces with the largest populations, Quebec (32%) Ontario (29%) and BC (29%).

Advance voting was relatively consistent across age groups, a little below average among the 30-44 group and above average among those 60+.

For the vast majority of these people (86%) the process went smoothly, while 14% said that they encountered some problems.

Among those who haven’t yet voted, just under half (43%) have completely made up their mind: the majority are not completely decided.

Methodology

Our survey was conducted online with 3,103 Canadians aged 18 and over from October 15, 2015 to October 17, 2015 survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys.   The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.8%, 19 times out of 20.  The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Canadians split on whether the country is on the right track

37% of Canadians say the country is on the wrong track while 36% feel the opposite. Since the beginning of the campaign, the country has been remarkably split, an indicator of just why this election is so hard to predict.

Among those voters who think the country is headed in the right direction, 58% support the Conservatives, 22% will vote Liberal, and 14% NDP.

Among those who think the country is off on the wrong track, the Liberals have a 9-point advantage over the NDP, 43% to 34%. 12% of these “wrong track” voters are planning to vote Conservative.

This underscores two things: the Conservatives are challenged by the fact that not everyone who thinks things are going well are inclined to vote Conservative; the Liberals are challenged by the fact that they are dividing the wrong track vote with the NDP.

A total of 73% Want Change, 57% feel strongly that way.

There has been very little movement in the number of people who are strongly in favour of replacing the Conservatives, which stands at 57%, nor has there been any real growth in the number of people who are sure they want the Conservatives re-elected, which stands at 18%

Among the voters who most want change, the Liberals were 16 points behind the NDP when the campaign began, and are 7 points ahead of the NDP now. This is perhaps the most important movement of any that we’ve witnessed in this campaign so far.

The Leaders’ Performance

In the biggest seat markets, Ontario, Quebec and BC, a plurality now says that Liberal leader Justin Trudeau has been performing best in the campaign. Across the country, Trudeau was the pick of 16% when the campaign first got underway, and is now picked by 28%.

Among those voters who most want change, and among Liberal-NDP swing voters, Mr. Trudeau scores well ahead of the other leaders on this question.

Trans Pacific Partnership

While 42% of voters don’t yet have a view on whether the TPP will be a good thing or a bad thing for Canada, of those who do, 3 have a positive view for every 1 who sees it negatively.

Worth noting is that the tendency even among NDP voters is to think it is more likely to be good (37%) for Canada, rather than bad for Canada (21%). Among Liberal-NDP swing voters, the split is 36% good/22% bad.

In BC and Quebec, two critical markets for the NDP, roughly 1 in 2 voters has a positive view of the deal, and fewer than 15% have a negative view. In Ontario, the split is 41% positive/16% negative.

Looking at the core and accessible voter pools for each party, we find that respondents are more likely to consider TPP a good thing than a bad thing, even among those who say they will vote NDP. While resistance to the deal is higher among NDP supporters, a plurality think the deal is a good thing.

We described the position of each of the three main parties and asked what influence each would have on intentions to vote for that party. The results suggest that the deal may not provide a great deal of upside for the Conservatives and that NDP-Liberal swing voters are more drawn to the “pro-trade, but we’ll study it” position of the Liberals than the more aggressive sounding resistance to the deal that the NDP has voiced.

Overall, 16% say they are more likely to vote Conservative because they negotiated the TPP deal while 23% say they are less inclined to vote Conservative. 62% say it will have no impact on their vote. These patterns are fairly consistent across the three key provinces.

Core Conservative supporters and those who are open to voting Conservative are more likely to say they are more inclined to vote the incumbents because of the TPP deal, but a majority still say it will not affect their vote.

The Liberal position appears to be the most likely to draw supporters towards the party with 28% of all respondents saying they are more inclined to vote Liberal while 12% are less inclined.

Core Liberal and NDP/Liberal swing voters are more enthusiastic about the Liberal position than Conservative supporters are of the fact that the Conservatives negotiated the deal.

While the NDP has voiced strenuous concerns (“could be harmful – we will not be bound”) with the TPP deal, voter reaction to that position is more negative than positive. Overall, 18% say they are more inclined to vote NDP because of its position on TPP while 27% are less inclined. In Ontario, Quebec, and especially British Columbia, this pattern is consistent.

While the NDP position is a net gain among its current supporters, among Liberal-NDP swing voters, the Liberal position shows more vote pulling potential.

The Upshot

The election remains unpredictable because while most voters want change, not everyone feels strongly about that, and those who want change continue to be split somewhat between voting Liberal and NDP.

Over the course of the campaign so far, the Liberals have been winning the change vote away from the NDP, and Mr. Trudeau’s campaign has impressed voters. Nevertheless, with the regional concentrations of votes, it’s an open question as to whether Conservatives win because of a split change vote or whether the drift/coalescence from the NDP to the Liberals continues and causes a change on October 19.

Will TPP be a vote mover? Based on these results, it’s hard to imagine the deal or the reaction to it having a large impact. Many voters feel it’s hard to have an opinion about the deal. Between the NDP and the Liberals, the NDP position is not as productive as the Liberal position when it comes to the battle for support among swing voters. The NDP posture will help somewhat among the NDP base, but not hugely.

Methodology

Our survey was conducted online with 2,000 Canadians aged 18 and over from 2:00pm ET October 5, 2015 to 4:00pm ET on October 6, 2015. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data Inc.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD. For more information, visit our website at http://www.abacusdata.ca/

Liberals continue to edge upward, NDP downward

In our latest horserace numbers, the Conservatives have 33% across the country, the Liberals 32%, and the NDP 24%. For both the Conservatives and Liberals these are the best levels of support we’ve seen since the election started; for the NDP, it is the lowest number we’ve seen.

In Ontario, we see the Liberals up 6 points from our last wave, and now with a 7-point lead over the Conservatives. The NDP have fallen back to 23%, down 9 points from the start of the election.

In Quebec, we see no significant change from our last wave: four parties are within 12 points of each other. The NDP started the election with a 27-point lead over the Liberals. Today, that lead is 7 points.

Accessible Voter Pools

The Liberals now enjoy the largest number (59%) of accessible voters (people who say they would consider voting for a party), followed by the NDP (52%) and the Conservatives at 43%. Since the start of the campaign, the NDP pool has shrunk by 8 points, the Liberal pool has grown 8 points, and the Conservative pool has been pretty stable.

Worth noting is that the number of Quebec voters who would consider the Liberals is now 48%, and the number who would consider the Conservatives is 30%, unchanged from the last wave. In Ontario, the accessible pool for the Liberals is 67%, up 4 points from our last wave, and 10 points higher than the NDP pool, and 24 points higher than the Conservatives.

The Leaders: Trudeau now most popular

Positive feelings toward Justin Trudeau have been rising quickly in this campaign. In mid-July only 30% had a positive feeling about the Liberal leader, only 2 points better than Stephen Harper. At one point he trailed Thomas Mulcair by 8 points in positive regard. Today, Trudeau is up 11 points from his trough, and is 6 points better than Mr. Mulcair, and 13 points better than Mr. Harper.

Feelings about Mr. Harper have stayed in a fairly narrow range this election, while ratings of the NDP leader have seen significant losses. Negative feelings about the NDP leader are up from 15% to 26% in the last few months.

Who Voters Think Will Win

Two weeks ago, the NDP was picked as the likely winner of the election by a plurality (26%) of those surveyed. Today, only 11% believe the NDP will win, compared to 29% who think the Conservatives will win and 28% who think the Liberals will finish on top.

In Ontario, 33% think the Liberals will win, followed by the Conservatives at 27% and the NDP at 9%. In Quebec, the CPC and LPC are deadlocked at 28%, followed by the NDP at 15%. In Ontario and BC, the NDP have dropped 7 points on this question in just over a week, in Quebec they are down 8. As the race enters its final stages, and some voters consider strategic voting, it is clear that far fewer believe that the NDP is the party most likely to defeat the Conservatives.

The Upshot

The story so far of this election campaign has been one of relative steadiness in the prospects of the Conservatives, rising Liberal support, and declining enthusiasm for the NDP. The outcome at this point remains impossible to predict, especially since support levels continue to be fluid.

While much has been made about how the NDP platform may have positioned them poorly relative to the Liberals, it is also clear that feelings about the NDP leader are part of the challenge for that party. Mr. Mulcair, who began the campaign as a front-runner, has been leaving voters wanting. It seems reasonable to assume that at least some of this about reaction to his debate performances.

Mr. Trudeau, on the other hand, has capitalized on the fact that he started the campaign as something of an underdog, and has built substantially more opportunity for his party to stake a claim as the party best positioned to unseat the Conservatives, a point of differentiation which may be critical in the final days.

Tomorrow, we’ll provide data on the mood for change, the views of change voters, and reactions to the TPP deal.

Methodology

Our survey was conducted online with 2,000 Canadians aged 18 and over from 2:0pm ET October 5, 2015 to 4:00pm ET on October 6, 2015.. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data Inc.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD. For more information, visit our website at http://www.abacusdata.ca/

Three out of four voters want change: but what does that mean?

We asked the 76% of voters who said they preferred to see a change in government, whether they preferred ambitious or moderate change, and change that would be felt soon, or more gradually. We also asked which of the Liberals and New Democrats looked best positioned to deliver the change they were looking for.

The responses reveal:

• People are split on the scale of change they want, with 50% wanting moderate change and 50% wanting ambitious change. In Quebec, the majority wants ambitious change; in BC it’s the opposite. But perhaps most important is this: among voters who are going to choose only between the NDP or Liberals, 57% want ambitious change, compared to 43% who want moderate change.

• Most (58%) favour change that would be felt soon, rather than more gradually (42%). This is the consensus in all three of the largest seat provinces. Among NDP-Liberal swing voters, 65% want change sooner rather than later.

• Justin Trudeau is seen as the leader who represents ambitious change (63%) and change that will be felt soon (60%). Thomas Mulcair is more identified with moderate change (60%) that will happen more gradually (59%). This puts the NDP leader at a disadvantage to Mr. Trudeau among the Liberal-NDP swing voter.

• When asked which leader is best able to deliver the change they want, 41% of change voters say Justin Trudeau, compared to 36% for Thomas Mulcair. Mr. Trudeau has a substantial 46%-33% lead in Ontario, and leads in BC (44%-33%), while Mr. Mulcair has a sizeable lead in Quebec (44%-28%).

• Among those who want ambitious change, Mr. Trudeau leads 44% to 36%. Among those who want moderate change, the Liberal leader and NDP leader are about even (38% to 35%)

• Among those who want change that happens soon, Mr. Trudeau leads 43% to 36%. Among those who want gradual change, the two are about even (38% vs. 36%).

We also revisited questions we asked earlier in the year about what would happen if an NDP or Liberal government replaced the Conservatives. The results (among the entire sample) reveal:

• Most people doubt things would be worse with a change to a Liberal or NDP government. The range of fearful voters is 17% to 30% for the Liberals, and 15% to 31% for the NDP.

• These perceptions show deterioration for the NDP and improvement for the Liberals since July. The Liberals have improved 9 to 11 points in perceptions that they would improve the rate of economic growth, job creation and keep taxes low, when compared to the Conservative government. The NDP have lost ground on keeping taxes low and keeping Canada safe from terrorism.

The Upshot

It may well be that the rest of the campaign turns on two themes: a Conservative effort to promote concern about the consequences of change and an effort by the two main opposition parties to harden the desire for change and define the most appealing version of change.

The fear of change has grown a bit in the case of a prospective NDP win, and has lowered when it comes to the prospect of a Liberal win. Overall, the fear of change is fairly limited.

Thus far in this campaign Liberals have out-positioned the NDP among change voters. For those who want ambitious change and to feel it soon, the Liberals have established stronger credentials: remarkable given the traditional relationship between these two parties. At the same time, among those who prefer more modest and gradual change, the Liberals are competitive with the NDP. As the leaders battle for the roughly 30% of voters who say they will only vote NDP or Liberal, this may be the topic to watch as Election Day draws nearer.

Methodology

Our survey was conducted online with 3,814 Canadians aged 18 and over from 9:30 pm ET on September 24 to 3:00pm ET on September 27, 2015. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.6%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data Inc.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD. For more information, visit our website at http://www.abacusdata.ca/

In our latest nationwide poll, only 5 points separates the Conservatives (32%) Liberals (29%) and NDP (27%). However, underneath the national figures, important trends have been developing in Quebec and Ontario, where 199 of the country’s 338 seats are at stake.  The number of undecided voters in our sample this week is 21%.

The NDP started the campaign with a slight lead in Ontario and has fallen behind the other parties and is now running third. This week the NDP suffered a large drop in support in Quebec.

Quebec

Since our last survey, the NDP shed 17 points in Quebec. When the election began, 37 points separated the NDP from the three other main parties. Today that gap has narrowed to 6 points, with the NDP at 30%, LPC 24%, CPC 21% and BQ 20%.

Ontario

In Ontario the NDP was roughly even with or slightly ahead of the other parties when the election began: currently (at 26%) they trail the Conservatives (36%) and Liberals (33%) by 10 and 7 points.

British Columbia

We see a tight three-way race with a gap of 3 points separating the three main parties, as the Liberals picked up support since the campaign began. The Green Party is at 8%.

Other Indicators

VOTER POOLS: the NDP voter pool has slid 7 points from its peak of 62%. The Liberal accessible voter pool (56%) is once again as big as that of the NDP (55%) while the Conservatives’ pool has increased to 45%, 4-points since last wave. In Quebec, the Conservative voter pool has increased 12 points from 19% to 31% in just two weeks.

PREDICTED WINNER: 19% predict the NDP will win this election, down 7 points from our last wave. Confidence in an NDP win is down 17 points in Quebec and 7 points in Ontario since our last wave

27% predict the Conservatives will end up ahead, up 6 points. 22% predict a Liberal win.

DESIRE FOR CHANGE: the desire for change remains broad (74%), but the intensity of that desire has softened a bit. Today, 56% say they definitely want change (down 5 points) and 18% say they it would be good to have a change but it’s “not all that important to me” (up 3 points).

Among those who most want change, the Liberals and the NDP are tied at 41%. At the beginning of this campaign, the NDP had a 16-point lead within this group. Among those who are only somewhat inclined to want change, we’ve seen a drop in NDP support to 21%, well behind the Liberals 33% and the Conservatives at 31%, and the party’s lowest score since May.

Views of Leaders

Just after the Alberta NDP victory, Thomas Mulcair’s popularity jumped from 27% (3rd place) to 41% (1st place). Recently his positives have sagged (to 36%) and his negatives have jumped (15% in July, 23% today). His net rating (positive minus negative) is down 18-points in Quebec.

The summertime advantage that Mr. Mulcair had over Mr. Trudeau has mostly disappeared.

Justin Trudeau’s reputation (36% positive, 28% negative) has been steady in Quebec and improving in other parts of the country. A 40-point differential in Quebec between Mr. Mulcair and Mr. Trudeau has narrowed to 20 points.

Stephen Harper’s (26% positive, 50% negative) net rating improved 16 points in Quebec and dropped 4 points elsewhere.

Reaction to Election Outcomes

A majority of Canadians would be ok with or happy with either a Liberal or an NDP victory. Majorities would be unhappy with a Conservative win. Since the last time we asked this question, there has been slight growth in resistance to Conservative wins (majority down 4, minority down 8) or an NDP majority (down 4).

The Upshot

Having lost ground in Ontario since the election began, the NDP is now facing a loss of support in the province of Quebec, where they hold the majority of seats and where the bulk of their caucus is from.

The election remains very close, and the outcome impossible to predict. One of the variables to watch is whether change voters will consider strategic voting if they feel the choice of which party can best stop a fourth Conservative victory is becoming more clear. Most NDP voters would prefer a Liberal rather than a Conservative victory.

But while many prefer a change, change is not a foregone conclusion: the Conservatives are competitive in Ontario, and have experienced a lift in the province of Quebec as well.

Tomorrow, we’ll share more data about how perceptions of the different parties are changing and what may account for the shifting.

Methodology

Our survey was conducted online with 3,814 Canadians aged 18 and over from 9:30 pm ET on September 24 to 3:00pm ET on September 27, 2015. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.6%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data Inc.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD. For more information, visit our website at http://www.abacusdata.ca/