CPC wins on security, struggling on economy.

NDP has strength in Quebec, but soft on taxes, jobs elsewhere

Liberals competitive on economy, especially in Ontario

As we’ve passed the mid-point in the campaign, parties have announced many parts of their platforms. We thought it would be useful to see how the parties were faring in terms of establishing policy credentials.

We asked respondents “Which Party Has Best Position on…?” on a series of issues. The results:

• The Conservative Party edges out the other parties, by a wide margin, when it comes to combating terrorism and dealing with ISIS. In each case roughly half of all voters say the CPC has the best position. The Conservatives have a notably more narrow advantage when it comes to the federal budget, ahead of the Liberals by only 3 points, with the NDP a couple more points back. The weakest results for the Conservatives are for education and training, health care, and the environment/climate change.

• The NDP is ahead when it comes to education and training, health care and the environment/climate change. In each case, on these items, the Conservatives are third. The weakest results for the NDP are on taxes, the budget, growing the economy, and infrastructure.

• The Liberal Party edges out other parties on taxes, infrastructure, growing the economy and creating jobs. The weakest results for the Liberals are on terrorism and ISIS, although they trail the NDP by a large margin on health care and the environment as well.

The Battles for Quebec and Ontario

Because this election is starting to turn into a series of regional races, each with their own dynamic, we felt it would be useful to compare the results in the two largest provinces (where sample sizes are large enough to improve reliability.

Here’s what that analysis shows:

Quebec

• The NDP leads on 8 of 10 issues, trailing only on terrorism. In every case but on the terrorism issue, the Liberal Party is second, and the CPC is third.

• The NDP advantage over the Liberals is largest on the environment (24 points), and smallest on growing the economy/creating jobs (5 points).

• The Conservatives are weakest on the environment, health care, and economic growth/job creation.

Ontario

• The NDP lead on just 2 items (environment, health care) and are tied with the Liberals on education and training.

• The Conservatives lead on 4 items ISIS, terrorism, refugees, and the federal budget. Their advantage is 25 points on the terror/ISIS items but only 5 points over the Liberals on the federal budget.

• The Liberals in addition to tying for the lead on taxes and education, have an outright lead on infrastructure and economic growth.

• The Conservatives and Liberals are tied when it comes to taxes, both ahead of the NDP by about 10 points.

The Upshot

The patterns are revealing.

First, the platforms are having some impact on public opinion. The most apparent example is that the Liberals were not as competitive on economic growth and infrastructure before the campaign began.

The Conservatives have taken a more cautious line than the other parties when it comes to refugees from Syria and Iraq, a position that probably strengthens their political standing among their accessible voters a little bit, even if it makes other voters more likely to vote for a different party.

Outside of Quebec, the NDP are a more vulnerable on economic growth and jobs than on any other issue. Arguably, this is the worst issue to be vulnerable on.

The Liberals seem more competitive in these numbers, especially on economic issues, and will take heart in their advantages over the NDP in Ontario.

Finally, for the Conservatives, their strongest suit is the security/terror issue set, but they have been less successful at convincing voters (especially in the two largest provinces) that they are a superior choice on economic, tax or fiscal matters. In each case, they find few voters giving them credit for the way things are today, and more voters imagining that other parties could do just as well or in some cases better.

Methodology

Our survey, commissioned by Abacus Data, was conducted online with 1,500 Canadians aged 18 and over from September 9 to 11, 2015. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data Inc.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD.

Mulcair most popular, but has lost ground
Trudeau’s campaign shows good results
Harper negatives hit new high

After soaring from April of this year, our latest survey shows a softening of impressions of NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair. His positives sagged slightly (2 points) to 39% and his negatives jumped 5 points to 21%.

For Stephen Harper, the news is worse. Positive feelings about the PM have hit a new low of 25%, down 9 points from his level in February of this year. His negatives hit a new high of 50%, up a remarkable 16 points from December.

For Justin Trudeau the news is that he has held the gains we saw in our last wave of surveying. His positives are 36%, and his negatives 29%. His net score is 10 points better than it was in July.

What to make of the leaders?

We asked the same three questions about each leader: how much do they want my vote, how close are their values to mine, and do they have new ideas about how to improve the country. The results paint a picture of how voters see their choices.

Both Mr. Mulcair (54%) and Mr. Trudeau (57%) are seen as really wanting to “win your vote”, compared to 34% who say the same thing about Mr. Harper. 36% say Mr. Harper “really doesn’t care if I vote for him” about twice as many who say that about the other leaders.

When it comes to values, few people say any of the leaders’ values are “pretty much the same as mine”. A combined 50% say their values are pretty much the same, or “not exactly but we share some of the same values” as Mr. Harper. 67% say the same thing about Mr. Mulcair and 68% about Mr. Trudeau. 50% say Mr. Harper’s values are very different from mine, compared to 33% for the other two leaders.

In Quebec, 76% say that Mr. Mulcair’s values are either pretty much like theirs or that he shares some of their values compared with 66% for Mr. Trudeau and only 35% for Mr. Harper. In Ontario, Mr. Trudeau leads slightly with 69% thinking he shares at least some of their values, followed by Mr. Mulcair at 66% and Mr. Harper at 55%.

When asked about their ideas, only 18% say Mr. Harper has new ideas about how to improve the country, compared to 39% for Mr. Mulcair, and 43% for Justin Trudeau.

Because the way partisans feel about their party’s leaders can have a lot to do with their determination to turn out and vote it is worthwhile to look at how each party’s supporters rate their leaders on these questions.

Conservative Party voters are least likely to say their party’s leader really wants their vote (67%), has values pretty much the same as theirs (46%), and has new ideas about how to improve the economy (52%).

Liberal Party voters are at the other end of the spectrum, with 85% saying Mr. Trudeau really wants their vote, 56% say his values are pretty much the same as theirs, and 80% say he has new ideas about how to improve the country.

Mr. Mulcair’s ratings among his party’s supporters are significantly better than those of Mr. Harper, but not quite as strong as those of Mr. Trudeau.

Campaign Performance

Both Mr. Mulcair and Mr. Trudeau tend to be seen as performing better than expected rather than worse than expected (32% better – 15% worse for Mr. Trudeau and 36% better – 10% worse for Mr. Mulcair). Only 9% say Mr. Harper is performing better than expected, while 40% say he is doing worse than they anticipated.

Since our last reading, these numbers show improvement for Mr. Trudeau (his net better vs worse rating improved 10 points) steady results for Mr. Mulcair (net rating shifted 1 point) and and 11-point negative shift for Mr. Harper.

Mulcair v Trudeau head to head matchup

To find out how voters might evaluate a choice between Mr. Mulcair and Mr. Trudeau we asked people to compare the two on a series of measures. (In our next wave, we will do a similar test including Mr. Harper and one of the other leaders).

The results show the two leaders are close together in public esteem, with all 11 items showing a highly competitive race. Mr. Mulcair was preferred choice when it comes to:

• Making the wisest choices in the fight against terrorism
• Doing the most to improve ethics and accountability
• Best approach to managing the federal budget

Mr. Trudeau scored better for:
• Motivating Canadians in a positive way
• Taking good advice if it was offered to him
• Doing the most to help the middle class

The choice is effectively too close to call (a 2-point gap from a 50/50 result) on:
• Improving the way politics is conducted
• Best foreign policy for Canada
• Best reflect your personal values in how he runs the country
• Soundest economic policies
• Best working relationship with the provinces

The difference of opinion between Ontarians and Quebecers is again evident, with Mr. Trudeau leading on five measures in Ontario compared with four for Mr. Mulcair. In Quebec, Mr. Mulcair beats Mr. Trudeau on all measures except one (Do most to help the middle class) on which they are effectively tied.

Worth noting is that when we look only at those voters who say they will consider voting for either for the Liberals or the NDP (but will not consider the Conservatives) the responses favour Mr. Trudeau, who leads on 6 items, while Mr. Mulcair leads on 1 and 4 items are too close to call.

When pressed on which of the two they would ultimately vote for, Mr. Mulcair gets 51% to Mr. Trudeau’s 49%, an extraordinarily close result. In Quebec, Mr. Mulcair wins (61%-39%) while Mr. Trudeau prevails in BC (54%-46%) and in Ontario (52%-48%).

Among swing voters who will consider voting for either the Liberals and NDP but not the Conservatives, Mr. Trudeau leads 53%-47%.

The Upshot

This election will be influenced by platform ideas, but the outcome will also have a lot to do with impressions of the individual who would be Prime Minister and about the values they share with Canadians.

The results show that Mr. Harper’s party remains competitive nationally, but that he is running well behind the other leaders in popularity and is not enjoying as ardent support among supporters of his own party as had been the case in prior elections, or as enjoyed by the other main party leaders.

The sense of Mr. Harper’s campaign is that it is not going as well as the others’, that Mr. Harper seems a bit more indifferent about winning votes, less aligned with the values of voters, and offering fewer ideas about improving the economy. To win, barring a major failure by his opponents, he would likely need to improve these perceptions.

For those looking for a change in this election, the race between Mr. Mulcair and Mr. Trudeau is clearly narrowing. The Liberal leader had surrendered a lead to the NDP leader, and now the balance is shifting in the other direction. To understand the electoral implications of these patterns, it is critical to recognize the differences between perceptions in Quebec compared to the rest of the country. Mr. Mulcair maintains great strength in Quebec, where the NDP already holds a very large majority of the seats. His biggest growth opportunities are in Ontario, where the NDP holds a small fraction of the 121 seats contested this year.

In Ontario, Mr. Trudeau and the Liberal Party have become more competitive, and as the campaign rolls into its second half, enjoy a modest advantage in that province, and among voters who say their choice will come down to the NDP and Liberal Party.

Methodology

Our survey, commissioned by Abacus Data, was conducted online with 1,500 Canadians aged 18 and over from September 9 to 11, 2015. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data Inc.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD.

The mood of the country continued to deteriorate and the desire for change grew since our last wave of surveying. Today, just 32% say the country is heading in the right direction, a drop of 18 points since last December and the lowest we have measured since we began tracking this item in March 2014. This is the first time since that tracking began that more people say the country is on the “wrong track” than say it is heading in the right direction.

The desire for change in Ottawa has also hit a new high, with 61% saying they “definitely think it’s time for a change”, up from 50% in April of this year. Another 15% are inclined to want change meaning a total of 76% of voters would prefer to see a different party take office at the conclusion of this election. Only 17% are sure that they want the Conservatives to remain in power, with another 7% inclined to want this outcome.

Current Voting Intention

The incumbent Conservatives find themselves in the middle of an intense 3-way battle for support. In terms of current voting intentions, we see the NDP at 31% and the Liberals and CPC both registering 29%. For all intents and purposes these levels of support are identical, and have only changed one point since our last survey, when the Liberal Party registered 28%.

In Ontario, we see a close two-way race between the Conservatives and the Liberals with the NDP having fallen back a bit. In Quebec, the NDP continues to lead by a wide margin. In BC, the Liberals appear to have picked up a bit of ground and a 3-way fight is evident again.

Accessible Voter Pools

One area where we have seen some shifting is in the size of the accessible voter pools for the parties. We note a 6-point drop in the number of people who would consider voting NDP, bringing their voter pool to a level about the same as that of the Liberal Party (NDP 56%, LPC 54%). Both parties enjoy consideration by substantially more voters than does the Conservative Party. Only 41% now say they would consider voting Conservative, down 7 points from April of this year.

Firmness of Voting Intentions

In terms of the firmness of voting intentions, there continues to be a lot of evidence of fluidity. Only 31% are sure of how they will vote, the rest are not.

Half (49%) of the current CPC vote (meaning about 15% overall) is locked in and won’t change, as is 38% of the Liberal vote and 29% of the NDP vote.

Battle for the Change Vote

Finally, perhaps the most interesting finding to draw attention to in this series of numbers is the voting intention among voters who are most passionate about change. This battle for the change vote is a key element of this campaign.

At one point, in mid August, he NDP a 12-point lead over the Liberals within this group. Today, the two parties are tied (34-33 with 19% undecided). In Quebec, the NDP leads by 22% among those who definitely want change. In Ontario, the Liberals lead by 9 points.

The Upshot

Tomorrow, we’ll release data on the evolving perceptions of the main party leaders.

These numbers released today indicate that the Conservatives are holding on to a competitive position, but continue to face headwinds in terms of a deteriorating mood and a growing desire for change. The NDP have softened a bit in the last few weeks, and the Liberals have re-established themselves as serious contenders.

The battle to become the vehicle of choice for change voters may determine the outcome of the election: if the NDP and the Liberals split equally, this can help the Conservatives, however if one or the other emerges as a dominant choice in large-seat regions, the math works poorly for Conservative incumbents. Increasingly we need to be watching the races in BC, Ontario and Quebec, as each has its own unique dynamic, and the potential to swing a lot of seats from one column to another.

Methodology

Our survey, commissioned by Abacus Data, was conducted online with 1,500 Canadians aged 18 and over from September 9 to 11, 2015. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data Inc.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD.

In our latest survey (completed August 26 to 28), 24% of respondents said they were undecided about which party they would support.  This is same proportion as our previous wave of research two weeks ago.

Past Federal Voting Behaviour

In 2011, 42% say they did not vote while 58% said they voted.  Among those who voted, 46% supported the Conservative Party, 25% voted NDP, while 21% voted Liberal.  Two percent said they voted Green.

A quick look at the demographic and regional make up of this group finds they are:

– More likely to be female (59%) than male (41%)
– Younger than the general population.  52% are under the age of 45.
– More likely to reside in Ontario, less likely to live in Quebec.
– Less educated.  41% have high school or less compared 29% among those who identified a party they support.

And this is what they think about some surrounding issues..

– 20% think the country is generally headed in the right direction.  35% think it’s off on the wrong track.  45% are unsure.
– Vote consideration: 59% would consider voting NDP, 58% Liberal, 45% Conservative, and 33% Green.
– 40% say they are certain to vote, another 20% said they are likely to vote.
– 54% believe it is definitely time for a change in government, another 33% say it would be good to have a chance, but it is not really that important to them.  Only 5% think its definitely best to keep the Conservatives in office.
– 69% describe the Canadian economy as poor or very poor, 13-points higher than those who have a stated vote preference.
– 15% say they are following the Duffy trial very closely or closely.
– 64% are unsure which party will win the next election. 14% pick the Liberals, 11% pick the CPC, and 10% pick the NDP.

The Upshot?

There is a large group of voters who say they are undecided when we ask which party they would support if an election was held at the time of the election.  About 40% are unlikely to vote and so may not impact the result.  But among those who say they are certain or likely to vote, their mood is decidedly worse than that of those who have a vote preference.  They are more bearish on the state of the economy and almost all prefer a change in government.

Most striking is that among those who voted in 2011, 46% supported the Conservative Party.  If the Conservatives hope to be re-elected, they will have to convince these undecided voters to go against their desire for change and vote Conservative once again.

Our latest national voting intention numbers reveal a tightening race as the NDP has lost a little ground. If the election were tomorrow, 31% say they would vote NDP (down from 35% two weeks ago), 30%
would vote CPC, and 28% would vote Liberal.

The Liberals picked up 2 points since our last poll and the Conservatives are up 1 point, both within the margin of error. The three-point gap is the closest we have seen since May, when the NDP began to climb in support following the election of NDP Premier Rachel Notley in Alberta.

Some softening of NDP support appears in several regions: Atlantic Canada (-5) Quebec (-3), Ontario (-6) and BC (-3). The NDP leads in Quebec, with a 21-point advantage over the Liberals; the margin was 27 points in our last survey. In Ontario, we see the Liberals at 34%, the Conservatives 33% and the NDP 26%. In BC, the NDP (31%) and CPC (32%) are locked in a tie, followed by the LPC (20%) and a strengthening Green Party (15%).

71% Not Fully Decided

In this wave, 29% say they have made up their mind who they will vote for and their decision won’t change. Two weeks ago, 31% were firm.

58% Really Want Change, 15% Really Don’t

A clear majority (58%) of those surveyed really want a change in government, while 15% are adamantly opposed to change. The number of people adamantly in favour of change is higher in recent waves than it was earlier in the year.

Another 18% say “it would be good to have change but it’s not really all that important” meaning a total of 76% would prefer a different government. Another 9% say “it would be better to continue with the Conservatives, but it’s not really all that important”, meaning that the total number who prefer the Conservatives to continue in office is 24% in this wave.

No clear consensus on which party will win.

Asked which party will win this election, 26% say the NDP, 23% say the Conservatives and 21% say the Liberals. In the last 12 months, all three parties have been on top on this question, this week marking the first time a plurality picked the NDP as the most likely victor.

These national numbers mask some differences among those living in different regions. In Ontario, 20% think the NDP will win, compared to 25% for the Conservatives and the Liberals, while in Quebec, 42% think the NDP will win, compared to 17% for the Liberals. Only 14% of Quebecers think Mr. Harper will win a fourth term at this point in time.

Pools of Accessible Voters

The NDP enjoys access to the largest potential pool of voters, as 62% say they would consider voting NDP, followed by the Liberals at 55% and the Conservatives at 42%. Put another way, the NDP have the potential to add 31 points more support, the Liberals 27 more points and the Conservatives only 12. The room for growth for the Conservatives is smaller than for the other parties, thus it is more imperative that their voters are highly motivated to turn out to vote.

Today, 28% say their choice will be between the NDP and the Liberals, a number which has risen.

Duffy Trial

A total of 25% say they were following the Duffy trial closely, up from 22% in the last wave. Worth noting, in Ontario 30% are following the trial closely, compared to 20% in Quebec. Attentiveness is highest at 37% in Atlantic Canada.

In this wave, 7% believe Mr. Duffy acted appropriately, and 61% improperly, unchanged from our last wave. 8% think Nigel Wright acted properly, 53% improperly. 14% think the PM acted properly, 49% improperly.

These results represent a net 2-point improvement for Mr. Duffy and a 3-point deterioration for Messrs. Harper and Wright compared to our last wave.

Three in ten voters say the Duffy trial will affect their vote – up 5 points since our last wave. Of those, 15% say it makes them more inclined to vote CPC, while 85% say it has the opposite effect.

Perhaps most important is the effect of the trial on those who are leaning for or against wanting change in this election. Among those who are inclined but not passionately for change, 20% say the Duffy trial makes them less likely to vote CPC. Among those who are softly inclined to want the Conservatives back in office, 15% say the Duffy trial makes them less inclined to vote CPC.

The Upshot

If more evidence was needed that it is premature to draw conclusions about how this election will turn out, this wave of results reinforces that point. The NDP enjoys the largest potential support, but also has been attracting the challenging scrutiny that comes with front-running status.

The numbers show that any party can win this election, and that Canadians themselves are quite uncertain which party will come out on top, something that could make for a more engaging election and possibly even a higher turnout on Election Day.

The Duffy trial has been a cloud hanging over the Conservatives, making those inclined to want change to feel even more inclined that way, and some of those who had been inclined to want a fourth Conservative mandate to feel less motivated to support Mr. Harper.

A sizeable proportion of Conservative leaning voters believe that the Prime Minister acted inappropriately. This means that every time he maintains that he did nothing untoward, he is saying something only a quarter of his supporters believe. An equal number don’t believe him, and half put themselves on the fence.

Whether the Duffy trial remains a factor in this campaign is uncertain, now that the trial has is recessed until after the election. For the Conservatives, who have the smallest potential pool of voters, they must now redouble their efforts to motivate and energize supporters, while trying to weaken the broad instinct towards change.

For the Liberals and the NDP, the situation is clear: neither can win without winning votes that the other is counting on or hoping for.

Methodology

Our surveyed, commissioned by Abacus Data, was conducted online with 1,500 Canadians aged 18 and over from August 26 to 28, 2015. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data Inc.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD.

Overall Impressions

Public feelings about the leaders of Canada’s three main political parties has been shifting.

Negative feelings about Stephen Harper are on the rise. Mr. Harper’s best ratings in the last 18 months were last December, when 34% were positive and 38% were negative towards the Conservative leader. Since then, his negatives are up 9 points to 47%, the highest level since March 2014.

Tom Mulcair’s ratings had been stable until the spring of this year. Since May, his positives have risen from 27% to 41% while his negatives have stayed low.

For Justin Trudeau, the news is also good. His positives had been drifting down over several months, but have spiked back upwards by 5 points this month to 35%.

Elizabeth May’s ratings have increased slightly from last month from 17% positive to 25% positive.

Leader Images

In this study we asked respondents to rate the leaders on a 10-point scale across a dozen dimensions.

The results show that:

• Both Thomas Mulcair and Justin Trudeau score more positively than Mr. Harper on 8 of the 12 dimensions: Principled, ethical, honest, accountable, good ideas, good heart, understands people like you, interesting.

• Mr. Harper leads the other leaders on two dimensions: tough, and ready to be Prime Minister.

• All three leaders score almost equally well for being smart.

• Mr. Mulcair scores better than Mr. Trudeau for being tough, while Mr. Trudeau gets higher scores than Mr. Mulcair for having “a good heart” and being interesting.

• Mr. Harper’s best scores are for being smart, tough, and ready to be PM. His scores are much lower for being honest, accountable, and understanding people like you

If the three leaders were to campaign nearby, and respondents could only go to one event, both Justin Trudeau (36%) and Thomas Mulcair (36%) would draw bigger crowds than Stephen Harper (28%). Worth noting are some important regional differences: Mr. Mulcair would draw particularly well in Quebec, while Mr. Trudeau would draw the biggest crowds in Ontario, Atlantic Canada, and BC.

The Maclean’s Debate

Our probing about the impact of the Maclean’s debate suggests that it has had an impact on leader impressions. Among the 28% in our sample who watched/heard some or all of the debate, 24% said that Mr. Trudeau was the most effective, ahead of Tom Mulcair (20%) and Elizabeth May (20%) and Stephen Harper (18%). Worth noting is that among those who didn’t watch, Thomas Mulcair was deemed the most effective (12%).

Because there were some different reactions expressed to Justin Trudeau’s closing remarks at the end of that debate (one journalist described them as ‘kind of horrible’) we decided to show the clip to people and ask them for their reactions. We will test other leader videos in upcoming surveys.

Among those who had a reaction to the clip, reactions were much more likely to be positive than negative (by a ratio of almost 4:1).

Not surprisingly, Liberal supporters were 86% positive, 3% negative. But among NDP supporters, reactions were 61% positive, 9% negative. And among persuadable voters the reaction was 56% positive, 11% negative. Among CPC supporters, reactions were mixed, but not particularly hostile: 28% positive, 37% negative.

When asked if the points made in the video clip made them more inclined or less include to vote Liberal, the results show positive impacts among Liberal, NDP, and persuadable voters.

The Upshot

The results suggest that leader images are in flux and affecting voting inclinations. Stephen Harper’s overall popularity had been rising but more recently is in decline. He is seen as tough, smart and a leader, but his scores for ethics, honesty, and accountability are weak, and he is not seen as having a good understanding of the average person. In his earlier campaigns, he had managed to convey a more down to earth, hockey dad, Tim Horton ready image.

Thomas Mulcair’s image has been improving quickly, he is seen as tough, smart, principled and his scores for “good ideas” suggest that his opponents have not to this point been successful at raising doubts about whether NDP policy could have adverse impacts on the economy, or national unity.

For Mr. Trudeau, the results show that his personal reputation has improved since the campaign began. His debate performance was well judged by those who watched the debate. He is seen as smart, with a good heart, interesting, ethical, and honest, but his scores for “toughness” and “ready to be Prime Minister” lag those of his two main opponents.

In our first past the post system, these results suggest any of these leaders has enough positive feeling to win an election. The movements in our numbers are a reminder that things can change, and relatively quickly. At this early point in the campaign, we see some positive shifting for both the Liberal and NDP leaders, and a weakening trend for Stephen Harper, but this is a very early point in the campaign.

Methodology

Our survey, commissioned by Abacus Data, was conducted online with 1,439 Canadians aged 18 and over from August 14 to 17, 2015. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data Inc.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD.

In case you missed it:

Yesterday we released polling on the horse-race and other views on the election.

David Coletto joined Eric Grenier from threehundredeight.com on his CBC podcast, the Election Pollcast, to talk about the poll.

And don’t miss Bruce Anderson on the At Issue panel, on CBC’s The National this Thursday.

Today, 30% of voters say they have made up their mind about which party they will vote for and won’t be changing, while 70% have not fully decided. This is unchanged from our last wave of surveying.

When asked when they think they will be making up their mind, responses show that many will be waiting till much later in the campaign. As many as one in three (35%) will not make up their minds until the final weekend. Almost one in five (19%) say they’ll decide on Election Day.

Desire for Change

Today, 76% say they think it would be good to have a change of government in Ottawa, including 59% who say it’s definitely time for a change in government. The number strongly in favour of change is up 6 points since our last survey. Just 16% are sure they want the Conservatives to win another term, and another 8% feel mildly this way.

Horse-race Numbers

Our national horserace numbers show the NDP leading with 35% followed by the Conservatives at 29% and the Liberals at 26%. In the two provinces that account for the most seats, the NDP is very competitive: neck and neck with the other major parties in Ontario and holding a substantial lead in Quebec.

A few other points of note underneath the surface of our horserace number – among those who are:

– Demanding change (the 59% who most want change) the NDP has 51%, LPC 35%
– Persuadable (the 70% who haven’t fully decided) the NDP has 36%, LPC 28%, CPC 24%.
– Decided (the 30% who have decided), the CPC has 39%, NDP 32%, LPC 22%.

About half of Conservative voters say they might change their mind before Election Day, while almost two thirds of the supporters of the Liberals and the NDP might.

Who will win?

Today 26% think the Conservatives will win, 22% say the NDP will win and 17% say the Liberals. Belief that the NDP can win the election has grown substantially since the Spring, when the NDP won the Alberta election. Today, 34% say they are unsure about which party will win, up 7 points.

How People Feel about Each Outcome

We asked people how they would feel about a variety of possible outcomes. The results show:

– 50% would be unhappy or hate a CPC majority, 39% say the same thing about a NDP majority and 43% about an LPC majority.

– 45% would be unhappy or hate a CPC minority, while 39% and 38% say that respectively about a LPC or NDP minority.

– Levels of enthusiasm for any of the outcomes tested are modest, but roughly half or more would acquiesce to any of the possible outcomes.

The Upshot?

This election campaign is in its infancy. The results suggest a population that is only lightly engaged to this point and holding only mild preferences in terms of outcomes or voting inclinations.

The NDP had been on an upward trajectory since the spring (coincident with the Notley win in Alberta) and is, at this point in time, winning the critical fight with the Liberals among those who most want change. Both parties should see this fight as in the early rounds, as 60% or more of their supporters are not really locked in, and many open to either a Liberal or and NDP victory.

The Conservatives remain competitive but well below the levels needed to imagine another majority. The Liberals continue to show strength in Atlantic Canada, competitiveness in Ontario, and possibly slight improvement in Quebec as well.

We believe any of the three major parties can win this election, and any of them could finish third, based on the extraordinarily loose attachments to parties these days and the very early stage we are at in the voters’ decision making process.

Methodology

Our survey, commissioned by Abacus Data, was conducted online with 1,439 Canadians aged 18 and over from August 14 to 17, 2015. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data Inc.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD. For more information, visit our website at http://www.abacusdata.ca/