Our latest national voting intention numbers reveal a tightening race as the NDP has lost a little ground. If the election were tomorrow, 31% say they would vote NDP (down from 35% two weeks ago), 30%
would vote CPC, and 28% would vote Liberal.

The Liberals picked up 2 points since our last poll and the Conservatives are up 1 point, both within the margin of error. The three-point gap is the closest we have seen since May, when the NDP began to climb in support following the election of NDP Premier Rachel Notley in Alberta.

Some softening of NDP support appears in several regions: Atlantic Canada (-5) Quebec (-3), Ontario (-6) and BC (-3). The NDP leads in Quebec, with a 21-point advantage over the Liberals; the margin was 27 points in our last survey. In Ontario, we see the Liberals at 34%, the Conservatives 33% and the NDP 26%. In BC, the NDP (31%) and CPC (32%) are locked in a tie, followed by the LPC (20%) and a strengthening Green Party (15%).

71% Not Fully Decided

In this wave, 29% say they have made up their mind who they will vote for and their decision won’t change. Two weeks ago, 31% were firm.

58% Really Want Change, 15% Really Don’t

A clear majority (58%) of those surveyed really want a change in government, while 15% are adamantly opposed to change. The number of people adamantly in favour of change is higher in recent waves than it was earlier in the year.

Another 18% say “it would be good to have change but it’s not really all that important” meaning a total of 76% would prefer a different government. Another 9% say “it would be better to continue with the Conservatives, but it’s not really all that important”, meaning that the total number who prefer the Conservatives to continue in office is 24% in this wave.

No clear consensus on which party will win.

Asked which party will win this election, 26% say the NDP, 23% say the Conservatives and 21% say the Liberals. In the last 12 months, all three parties have been on top on this question, this week marking the first time a plurality picked the NDP as the most likely victor.

These national numbers mask some differences among those living in different regions. In Ontario, 20% think the NDP will win, compared to 25% for the Conservatives and the Liberals, while in Quebec, 42% think the NDP will win, compared to 17% for the Liberals. Only 14% of Quebecers think Mr. Harper will win a fourth term at this point in time.

Pools of Accessible Voters

The NDP enjoys access to the largest potential pool of voters, as 62% say they would consider voting NDP, followed by the Liberals at 55% and the Conservatives at 42%. Put another way, the NDP have the potential to add 31 points more support, the Liberals 27 more points and the Conservatives only 12. The room for growth for the Conservatives is smaller than for the other parties, thus it is more imperative that their voters are highly motivated to turn out to vote.

Today, 28% say their choice will be between the NDP and the Liberals, a number which has risen.

Duffy Trial

A total of 25% say they were following the Duffy trial closely, up from 22% in the last wave. Worth noting, in Ontario 30% are following the trial closely, compared to 20% in Quebec. Attentiveness is highest at 37% in Atlantic Canada.

In this wave, 7% believe Mr. Duffy acted appropriately, and 61% improperly, unchanged from our last wave. 8% think Nigel Wright acted properly, 53% improperly. 14% think the PM acted properly, 49% improperly.

These results represent a net 2-point improvement for Mr. Duffy and a 3-point deterioration for Messrs. Harper and Wright compared to our last wave.

Three in ten voters say the Duffy trial will affect their vote – up 5 points since our last wave. Of those, 15% say it makes them more inclined to vote CPC, while 85% say it has the opposite effect.

Perhaps most important is the effect of the trial on those who are leaning for or against wanting change in this election. Among those who are inclined but not passionately for change, 20% say the Duffy trial makes them less likely to vote CPC. Among those who are softly inclined to want the Conservatives back in office, 15% say the Duffy trial makes them less inclined to vote CPC.

The Upshot

If more evidence was needed that it is premature to draw conclusions about how this election will turn out, this wave of results reinforces that point. The NDP enjoys the largest potential support, but also has been attracting the challenging scrutiny that comes with front-running status.

The numbers show that any party can win this election, and that Canadians themselves are quite uncertain which party will come out on top, something that could make for a more engaging election and possibly even a higher turnout on Election Day.

The Duffy trial has been a cloud hanging over the Conservatives, making those inclined to want change to feel even more inclined that way, and some of those who had been inclined to want a fourth Conservative mandate to feel less motivated to support Mr. Harper.

A sizeable proportion of Conservative leaning voters believe that the Prime Minister acted inappropriately. This means that every time he maintains that he did nothing untoward, he is saying something only a quarter of his supporters believe. An equal number don’t believe him, and half put themselves on the fence.

Whether the Duffy trial remains a factor in this campaign is uncertain, now that the trial has is recessed until after the election. For the Conservatives, who have the smallest potential pool of voters, they must now redouble their efforts to motivate and energize supporters, while trying to weaken the broad instinct towards change.

For the Liberals and the NDP, the situation is clear: neither can win without winning votes that the other is counting on or hoping for.

Methodology

Our surveyed, commissioned by Abacus Data, was conducted online with 1,500 Canadians aged 18 and over from August 26 to 28, 2015. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data Inc.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD.

Overall Impressions

Public feelings about the leaders of Canada’s three main political parties has been shifting.

Negative feelings about Stephen Harper are on the rise. Mr. Harper’s best ratings in the last 18 months were last December, when 34% were positive and 38% were negative towards the Conservative leader. Since then, his negatives are up 9 points to 47%, the highest level since March 2014.

Tom Mulcair’s ratings had been stable until the spring of this year. Since May, his positives have risen from 27% to 41% while his negatives have stayed low.

For Justin Trudeau, the news is also good. His positives had been drifting down over several months, but have spiked back upwards by 5 points this month to 35%.

Elizabeth May’s ratings have increased slightly from last month from 17% positive to 25% positive.

Leader Images

In this study we asked respondents to rate the leaders on a 10-point scale across a dozen dimensions.

The results show that:

• Both Thomas Mulcair and Justin Trudeau score more positively than Mr. Harper on 8 of the 12 dimensions: Principled, ethical, honest, accountable, good ideas, good heart, understands people like you, interesting.

• Mr. Harper leads the other leaders on two dimensions: tough, and ready to be Prime Minister.

• All three leaders score almost equally well for being smart.

• Mr. Mulcair scores better than Mr. Trudeau for being tough, while Mr. Trudeau gets higher scores than Mr. Mulcair for having “a good heart” and being interesting.

• Mr. Harper’s best scores are for being smart, tough, and ready to be PM. His scores are much lower for being honest, accountable, and understanding people like you

If the three leaders were to campaign nearby, and respondents could only go to one event, both Justin Trudeau (36%) and Thomas Mulcair (36%) would draw bigger crowds than Stephen Harper (28%). Worth noting are some important regional differences: Mr. Mulcair would draw particularly well in Quebec, while Mr. Trudeau would draw the biggest crowds in Ontario, Atlantic Canada, and BC.

The Maclean’s Debate

Our probing about the impact of the Maclean’s debate suggests that it has had an impact on leader impressions. Among the 28% in our sample who watched/heard some or all of the debate, 24% said that Mr. Trudeau was the most effective, ahead of Tom Mulcair (20%) and Elizabeth May (20%) and Stephen Harper (18%). Worth noting is that among those who didn’t watch, Thomas Mulcair was deemed the most effective (12%).

Because there were some different reactions expressed to Justin Trudeau’s closing remarks at the end of that debate (one journalist described them as ‘kind of horrible’) we decided to show the clip to people and ask them for their reactions. We will test other leader videos in upcoming surveys.

Among those who had a reaction to the clip, reactions were much more likely to be positive than negative (by a ratio of almost 4:1).

Not surprisingly, Liberal supporters were 86% positive, 3% negative. But among NDP supporters, reactions were 61% positive, 9% negative. And among persuadable voters the reaction was 56% positive, 11% negative. Among CPC supporters, reactions were mixed, but not particularly hostile: 28% positive, 37% negative.

When asked if the points made in the video clip made them more inclined or less include to vote Liberal, the results show positive impacts among Liberal, NDP, and persuadable voters.

The Upshot

The results suggest that leader images are in flux and affecting voting inclinations. Stephen Harper’s overall popularity had been rising but more recently is in decline. He is seen as tough, smart and a leader, but his scores for ethics, honesty, and accountability are weak, and he is not seen as having a good understanding of the average person. In his earlier campaigns, he had managed to convey a more down to earth, hockey dad, Tim Horton ready image.

Thomas Mulcair’s image has been improving quickly, he is seen as tough, smart, principled and his scores for “good ideas” suggest that his opponents have not to this point been successful at raising doubts about whether NDP policy could have adverse impacts on the economy, or national unity.

For Mr. Trudeau, the results show that his personal reputation has improved since the campaign began. His debate performance was well judged by those who watched the debate. He is seen as smart, with a good heart, interesting, ethical, and honest, but his scores for “toughness” and “ready to be Prime Minister” lag those of his two main opponents.

In our first past the post system, these results suggest any of these leaders has enough positive feeling to win an election. The movements in our numbers are a reminder that things can change, and relatively quickly. At this early point in the campaign, we see some positive shifting for both the Liberal and NDP leaders, and a weakening trend for Stephen Harper, but this is a very early point in the campaign.

Methodology

Our survey, commissioned by Abacus Data, was conducted online with 1,439 Canadians aged 18 and over from August 14 to 17, 2015. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data Inc.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD.

In case you missed it:

Yesterday we released polling on the horse-race and other views on the election.

David Coletto joined Eric Grenier from threehundredeight.com on his CBC podcast, the Election Pollcast, to talk about the poll.

And don’t miss Bruce Anderson on the At Issue panel, on CBC’s The National this Thursday.

Today, 30% of voters say they have made up their mind about which party they will vote for and won’t be changing, while 70% have not fully decided. This is unchanged from our last wave of surveying.

When asked when they think they will be making up their mind, responses show that many will be waiting till much later in the campaign. As many as one in three (35%) will not make up their minds until the final weekend. Almost one in five (19%) say they’ll decide on Election Day.

Desire for Change

Today, 76% say they think it would be good to have a change of government in Ottawa, including 59% who say it’s definitely time for a change in government. The number strongly in favour of change is up 6 points since our last survey. Just 16% are sure they want the Conservatives to win another term, and another 8% feel mildly this way.

Horse-race Numbers

Our national horserace numbers show the NDP leading with 35% followed by the Conservatives at 29% and the Liberals at 26%. In the two provinces that account for the most seats, the NDP is very competitive: neck and neck with the other major parties in Ontario and holding a substantial lead in Quebec.

A few other points of note underneath the surface of our horserace number – among those who are:

– Demanding change (the 59% who most want change) the NDP has 51%, LPC 35%
– Persuadable (the 70% who haven’t fully decided) the NDP has 36%, LPC 28%, CPC 24%.
– Decided (the 30% who have decided), the CPC has 39%, NDP 32%, LPC 22%.

About half of Conservative voters say they might change their mind before Election Day, while almost two thirds of the supporters of the Liberals and the NDP might.

Who will win?

Today 26% think the Conservatives will win, 22% say the NDP will win and 17% say the Liberals. Belief that the NDP can win the election has grown substantially since the Spring, when the NDP won the Alberta election. Today, 34% say they are unsure about which party will win, up 7 points.

How People Feel about Each Outcome

We asked people how they would feel about a variety of possible outcomes. The results show:

– 50% would be unhappy or hate a CPC majority, 39% say the same thing about a NDP majority and 43% about an LPC majority.

– 45% would be unhappy or hate a CPC minority, while 39% and 38% say that respectively about a LPC or NDP minority.

– Levels of enthusiasm for any of the outcomes tested are modest, but roughly half or more would acquiesce to any of the possible outcomes.

The Upshot?

This election campaign is in its infancy. The results suggest a population that is only lightly engaged to this point and holding only mild preferences in terms of outcomes or voting inclinations.

The NDP had been on an upward trajectory since the spring (coincident with the Notley win in Alberta) and is, at this point in time, winning the critical fight with the Liberals among those who most want change. Both parties should see this fight as in the early rounds, as 60% or more of their supporters are not really locked in, and many open to either a Liberal or and NDP victory.

The Conservatives remain competitive but well below the levels needed to imagine another majority. The Liberals continue to show strength in Atlantic Canada, competitiveness in Ontario, and possibly slight improvement in Quebec as well.

We believe any of the three major parties can win this election, and any of them could finish third, based on the extraordinarily loose attachments to parties these days and the very early stage we are at in the voters’ decision making process.

Methodology

Our survey, commissioned by Abacus Data, was conducted online with 1,439 Canadians aged 18 and over from August 14 to 17, 2015. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data Inc.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD. For more information, visit our website at http://www.abacusdata.ca/

In many markets these days, generational differences in outlook and priorities are important. Over the coming months, as part of Abacus’ market leading work in understanding the role of generation in decision-making, we will highlight how four age groups compare (18 to 29, 30 to 44, 45 to 59, and 60+).

In this release, we will focus on the perspective of Millennials (aged 18 to 29) towards the upcoming election and the parties contesting it.

By combining data from our last two political studies, here is what we find about Millennials:

1. They are no more or less happy than older people with the direction of the country. 45% say country is going in the right direction, 27% wrong track.

2. In the 2011 Election, 15% of this segment say they voted Conservative, 12%, NDP and 9% Liberal. Half chose not to vote or were ineligible to. Today, the NDP (34%) is ahead of the Liberals (26%), and the Conservatives (23%). The Greens do better among Millennials than any other segment. This is the weakest age group for the Conservative Party.

3. Millenials are the most “up for grabs” voters today. 84% of Millenials indicate that their vote is not firmly decided, which is 12 points above the average for the country. Half of Millennials say they have only a slight leaning or don’t really know which party they will vote for yet – 13 points above average.

4. A total of 84% say it would be good to change governments, which is higher than any other age group. While a good proportion of those don’t feel all that strongly about it, as of now, only 16% think it best if the Conservatives are returned. Among those aged 60+, that number is 40%.

5. Millennials are more likely than any age group to say they will vote for the party that best represents their values and interests rather than the leader that would do the best job.

6. Millennials are not much different from other voters in terms of how they see the health of the Canadian economy. If anything, they show a bit more confidence and optimism.

7. When it comes to the issues they care about, Millennials tend to be less preoccupied than older voters with accountability, the deficit, retirement incomes, and health care. They are more interested in jobs, education and the environment.

8. All major parties can win sizeable proportions of the Millennial vote. They are no less likely than others to consider voting CPC: 44% compared to the national average which is 45%. But they are more open to voting for the LPC (61%, 8 points above the national average) the NDP 66% (6 points above the national average) and the Green Party (44%, 13 points above average). One in five Millennials say they would consider all parties, which is 8 points higher than the national average.

The Upshot?

Millennials are pro-change and more open to progressive parties, compared to older voters. At the same time, their views towards the incumbents are not particularly hostile, and they feel relatively good about the economy and the direction of the country. and more indifference. In terms of the agenda that is most interesting to Millennials, there is a marked difference from older age groups, reflecting different lifecycle priorities. They also indicate a greater inclination to vote their interests rather than choose a leader for Canada.

Winning enthusiastic support from this segment of voters will require a clear and compelling focus on the issues and values that matter most to them, including education, jobs and the environment.

Methodology

The surveys cited n this report were conducted at the end of May and in early July.

July Survey
Our survey was conducted online with 2,000 Canadians aged 18 and over from July 3 to 6, 2015. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of Canadians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

May Survey
Our survey was conducted online with 1,500 Canadians aged 18 and over from May 28 to May 31, 2015. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of Canadians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data Inc.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD.

Abacus Data is also a leader in understanding the impact of generational change on businesses and associations.  It runs the website www.CanadianMillennials.ca, home to original research and insights from the team at Abacus.