Liberal Re-Election Hopes?

May have less to do with a pipeline, more about attracting investment and helping with housing affordability.

As of today, 42% of voters say they would like to see the Liberals re-elected next year, and 58% say they would prefer to see a different party take power in Ottawa.  To put this in context, the Liberal Party won in 2015 with 39% of the vote – so 42% can be enough, but there is not a great deal of room between these two numbers.

While the desire for a change is broad, what often affects the outcome is the intensity of voter feelings. In our latest study we explored more about how determined people were to see change, and what if anything the Liberals could do to persuade them and win a second Trudeau term.

When we ask the 58% who want change whether there is anything the Liberals could do that would persuade them to support.  The results reveal a scenario where another 32% of the voting public indicate they could be persuaded to vote to re-elect the Liberals.

To better understand these 32% persuadable voters, we’ve focused in on a group that is presently planning to vote either Conservative (9% of the population, we will call Blue Persuadables) or NDP (6% of the population, we’ll call Orange Persuadables).  Together this 15% could become crucial swing voters for the Liberals as they begin planning their platform and election campaign.

We then went on to explore how many of these voters could be won over to the Liberal column based on a variety of different issues and initiatives. Not surprisingly, the list of things that would pull Orange Persuadables is somewhat different from that which would work for Blue Persuadables – but it’s not as different as one might expect.

For Orange Persuadables, the top 5 items among the 16 we tested were improving housing affordability, improving equality for women, helping reduce student debt, introducing a national pharmacare plan and broadening our trade relationships.  Here are some of the things we find interesting in this data.

Near the very bottom of the list are introducing a carbon price and dropping the TMX pipeline, which are reminders that while activists may be very vocal on these issues – these may not be matters of great topicality for regular voters. Almost as many Orange Persuadables would be won over by completing the pipeline as by dropping the project, also a reminder that many NDP supporters see value in the jobs of the extractive sector and in the construction business.

On carbon pricing, more Orange Persuadables would be won over by moves to making a carbon price neutral in terms of impact on the cost of living for voters than by the introduction of a carbon price itself. Ideas about consumer rebates could be helpful not only with hesitant conservative voters but “cost of living stressed” left of centre voters as well.

Broadening our trade relationships to more countries has more pulling power than many other items on this list, including completing an updated NAFTA deal. This is a reminder that in the era of Donald Trump, Canadians may be more convinced than ever of the virtue of putting more of our eggs in different baskets.

Turning to the Blue Persuadables, the top 5 items that could pull votes towards the Liberals are attracting more investment and jobs, doing more to control the border, improving housing affordability, tighter gun controls and doing more to limit spending and deficits.  Number 6 on the list is broadening our trade relationships.  What’s interesting in this data?

The current debate about gun controls is not the same as a long-form gun registry. There may be a significant number of conservative voters who see tighter controls over handguns and automatic weapons as a question of public safety/law and order.

The fact that housing affordability is at or near the top of the list for both groups underscores how powerful the cost of housing has become as a source of frustration for many middle to lower income and younger voters, especially in the country’s largest urban centres. Any party looking to create a platform that resonates would be well advised to look for solutions that might appeal to these voters.

Attracting investment and more jobs is a bigger pull than limiting spending, finishing TMX or concluding a deal on NAFTA. These persuadable conservatives will be attentive to a future growth story including about diversification of trading relationships, more than a retrenchment or austerity pitch.

UPSHOT

A lot of commentary focuses on the horserace numbers separating the three main parties, but a more interesting way to evaluate how this election scenario is shaping up is to recognize how many voters are up for grabs, and what might motivate them one way or another.

The Liberals have suffered some losses of top-line support over the last year but a remarkably large number of voters say they could be persuaded to want a Trudeau second term.  Doing something to help people trying to get into the housing market, broadening trade relationships, attracting investment, are the areas of focus that tend to cut across the spectrum in terms of appeal, and in some ways are more topical for people than the high profile debates about carbon price and pipelines.

For the Liberals, efforts to complete the pipeline and soften the consumer impact of a carbon price seem to be a path that will be perhaps as good as they can find on these contentious issues.

For Conservatives, these numbers are a reminder that the desire for change is not all that broad at this point, nor is it all that deeply felt. To win, they likely will need more than the current level of frustration with the Liberals and many of the ideas on this list might usefully be considered in their platform development.  Certainly, opposing more gun controls might be a question worth careful consideration, as might be the intense focus on the pipeline and carbon price question.  No doubt these animate the base but maybe leaving other voters to wonder what’s in a Conservative wish list for them.

Methodology

Our survey was conducted online with 2,000 Canadians aged 18 and over from September 14 to 19, 2018 2018. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.  The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

MediaPollsTechnology

Only 1 in 5 Canadian millennials believe they will see global gender equality in their lifetimes.

On behalf of The MATCH Fund, we asked Canadian millennials (those aged 18 to 37) their views on global gender equality and Canada’s role in trying to achieve it.

Here’s what we found:

Only one in five millennials believe they will see global gender equality achieved in their lifetime. Most think that gender equality will be achieved in Canada and similar countries, but the majority of Canadian millennials are skeptical that it can be achieved globally.

Female millennials are less confident than their male counterparts that gender equality will be achieved globally or even in countries like Canada within their lifetime.

Given this assessment, almost all millennials in Canada believe Canada has a role to play in investing in women’s rights efforts globally and half (51%) believe Canada should play a leading or big role in such an effort with another one in three feeling Canada should play a moderate role in investing in women’s rights globally.

Of note, there’s no difference between women and men on this question.

When asked who should be investing in trying to achieve gender equality global – the federal government, the charitable sector, or both – most Canadian millennials (52%) would prefer a collaborative approach and see a role for both government and the charitable sector. Another 26% think it should be the charitable sector’s role alone while 22% feel that it is mostly the federal government’s role to invest.

Of note, women were more likely to want to see a mix of both government and charitable organizations involved in the effort while men were more likely to pick either government or non-governmental organizations.

Taken together, 74% of Canadians would support the federal government playing some role in investing in gender equality globally

THE UPSHOT

We know from other research we have conducted that equality generally is an important issue for millennials in Canada. Canadian millennials believe strongly that equality – whether by race, sexual orientation, or religion – is a fundamental right.

This research for The MATCH Fund reaffirms that and shows that millennials in Canada – both men and women – want Canada to play a role in achieving global gender equality. They believe that the federal government has a role to play the work to achieve it and want it to be an active partner, working with non-governmental organizations to achieve gender equality, not just in Canada, but around the world.

Millennials are also realists. They recognize that achieving gender equality global won’t be easy. Most feel it may not be achieved within their lifetime and so they support action and collaboration to get the world closer to this important goal.

Perhaps most striking is the unity across gender lines in attitudes towards these issues. Millennial men are as likely as millennial women to want action and want Canada to play a role.

I’m excited to be part of a panel discussion about these results and how millennials view gender equality.

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted online with 1,700 Canadians aged 18 to 37 from June 21st, 2018 to July 4th, 2018. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the 20-minute survey from several online panels of Canadians.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

For more information about the results and The MATCH Fund, please visit: http://matchinternational.org/media-advisory-gender-millennials/

MediaPolls

What’s the Deal with Meal Kits

The meal kit industry has taken off in Canada and is currently valued at more than 120 million in the total global meal kit market of 2.2 billion. Meal kit subscriptions offer convenience, customization, and worry-free meal prep like no other offering in the food industry. The promise of a fresh, quick, and healthy meal delivered to your door with the click of a button is appealing to millennials who are eating it up.

From our research, we found that one in five millennials are either currently subscribed to a meal kit service or have been subscribed to one in the past. Understanding millennials shopping behaviors and preferences is key to understanding why this poor group is willing to hand over their hard-earned cash for kits.

First, the very premise of the meal kit, convenience, is something millennials hold near and dear to their hearts. Especially when it comes to shopping. As digital natives, millennials have grown up with virtually every good and service available with the click of a button on their smart phone. Ease of use and speed are important when making purchasing decisions and meal kits provide this for millennials, in both the ordering process and the product itself. Convenience is also becoming one of the biggest disruptors in the food industry as a whole, and is a driver for purchasing behaviors not just among millennials.

Next, the platform of e-commerce is well understood by the meal kit industry. With beautifully crafted sites full of Instagram worthy food photos, and a simple step by step guide on how the service works, meal kits clearly understand their audience. Customers easily build their ‘basket’ and check out in under 10 clicks. To receive a meal kit, customers also must subscribe and create an account that is linked to their email, where the services can continue to tempt subscribers with more mouth-watering images, and reminders of why they continue to subscribe. Customers are also subscribed to the service on a continuing basis, so as long as a customer doesn’t cancel their account the food continues to conveniently arrive every week.

The ability to make insta-worthy meals using meal kits must also not be downplayed. Millennials are the generation of foodies, eager to order, photograph and consume meals that look more like art than food. Eve Turow, author of, A Taste of Generation Yum, describes food as a ‘social currency’ for Millennials, it’s a way to “demonstrate luxury” and connect with others.

But what about prices? This is by far the biggest barrier for meal kits obtaining millennial customers, and the industry has been called out about the affordability of its products. And, in a study published by Goldman Sachs, millennials valued price more than their older counterparts. Not to worry, meal kit services have also figured out how to avoid this barrier by offering deep discounts for first time subscribers, often with one week of free meals. This discount draws new customers from both within the market, and those thinking of entering. It’s likely this tactic is very effective with millennials as two-thirds are open to switching brands if offered a discount of 30% or more. And with a system where millennials have to opt-out every week, rather than opt in, it’s likely that customers lured into the first-time discount will stick around.

As the industry and concept of meal kits are relatively new, we will have to wait and see if this service is something millennials feel is worthy of their hard-earned money. However, we know that those who are already using it, are extremely happy with the services they provide. Nearly 80% of meal kit subscribers said they were satisfied with their meal kit service. That being said, 13% of those we surveyed had previously subscribed to a kit, and then cancelled their subscription.

If the industry continues to grow, and can keep its customers happy, we think this trend is only set to grow among millennial consumers.

Generational Change

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Election 2015 started as a three party race. Countdown to 2019 begins with the NDP well back.

A year from now, we will likely be in the middle of the 2019 federal election. Over the past 5 days, we polled 2,000 Canadian adults how they are seeing their political choices and how they feel about their political leaders.

Here are the highlights as we see them:

If Canadians voted today, our latest numbers indicate the Liberals would prevail.  Mr. Trudeau’s party would outpoll the other parties everywhere but in the Prairies. Notably, the Liberals find similar levels of support in BC as they won in 2015, despite the controversial Trans Mountain pipeline debate.

Having said that, trend lines of late have made it clear that Liberal support can rise and fall and that the Conservatives are considerably more competitive than they were a year ago.

Nationally, voting inclinations show the Liberals with 38% support, the Conservatives with 34%, the NDP at 17%. Liberal support in Ontario has strengthened in our latest wave of data, perhaps as a function of the settling out of provincial political influences.

The Liberals lead by 10 in BC, by 9 in Ontario, by 18 in Quebec and by 8 in Atlantic Canada. The Conservatives lead by 37 in Alberta and 18 in the other two Prairie provinces.

Approval of the federal government performance stands at 44% and has been stable for the last 3 months while disapproval is down to 37% from a high of 41% in late winter/early spring 2018.  Approval is 44% or higher everywhere except in the Prairies and stands at 47% in Ontario.

IMPRESSIONS OF POLITICAL LEADERS

As we regularly do, we asked respondents for their opinion of political leaders.

Justin Trudeau elicits 44% positive opinion and 37% negative for a net +7.  Again, regional differences are important to note: Mr. Trudeau’s net positive scores are +11 in Ontario,  +12 in BC and +15 in Quebec.

Conservative leader Andrew Scheer has 25% positive and 26% negative opinion (-1).  His positives and negatives have both risen by roughly equal amounts over the last year.  Mr. Scheer’s numbers are considerably stronger on the Prairies, and softer in BC (-8) and Ontario (-8).

NDP leader Jagmeet Singh finds 20% positive opinion, and 28% negative (-8).  Compared to when he assumed the leadership his negatives are 11 points higher, and his positives 2 points higher. Mr. Singh’s negatives are higher than his positives in every region today, including BC where he is running for a seat.

Maxime Bernier, leader of the new People’s Party of Canada, finds 9% positive and 32% negative opinion (-23).

Bernier’s image is starting out negative across the country and among all party voters. While he is more known in Quebec, only 12% of Quebecers have a positive impression of him with 40% have negative views (-28).

Green Party leader Elizabeth May has 22% positive, 23% negative for a net of -1. In BC, 31% have a positive impression of her compared with 25% negative (+6).

To provide a bit of added context we included popularity measures for Doug Ford (-30), Rachel Notley (-6), Bernie Sanders (+23), Hillary Clinton (+2) and Donald Trump (-71). In Alberta, Ms. Notley is 24% positive – 44 negative (-20).  In Ontario Doug Ford is 24% positive – 51% negative (-27).

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “Heading into the last election, the Liberals needed to fight for a share of voice against the incumbent Conservatives and an NDP which was the Official Opposition party led by the high-profile Thomas Mulcair.

Today, the Liberals have accumulated some of the scars of incumbency, and the Conservatives don’t have a broadly unpopular leader.  But as important as these factors are in creating a different starting point,  the biggest X-factor heading into 2019 will be the role of the NDP.

There remain many voters who would consider voting either Liberal or NDP but whose choice will be influenced by whether they warm to the new NDP leader or feel the NDP is competitive in their riding or across the country. These current numbers suggest NDP provincial gains in Ontario have not sparked a broader interest in support for the party at the national level, and a weak NDP in Quebec, Ontario, and BC make for a more promising landscape for the Liberal Party and a bigger challenge for Conservatives to overcome.”

According to David Coletto: “The competitive national race between the Liberals and Conservatives overlooks a tougher provincial landscape for the Conservatives. With large leads in Quebec, Ontario, BC, and Atlantic Canada, the Liberals would likely win another majority government if an election was held today.

Despite a fairly turbulent summer involving the Trans Mountain pipeline, border crossings, and NAFTA negotiations, support for the Liberals has held steady nationally and appears to have rebounded in Ontario after the provincial election. More people like Prime Minister Trudeau than dislike him and the government’s approval rating has held steady since March.

While Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives are in striking distance, competition from Maxime Bernier might complicate his path to victory. For the NDP, there’s still opportunity but impressions of Mr. Singh have become less positive and more negative over the summer months.

The bottom line: as long as the federal government’s approval rating is in the low to mid-40s which it has been since the spring, the Liberals will be tough to beat.”

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 2,000 Canadians aged 18 and over from September 14 to 19, 2018 2018. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.  The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

DETAILED TABLE

Canadian PoliticsMediaPollsTechnology

Ottawa residents want progress on LeBreton Flats redevelopment

Most residents, including 67% of Sens fans, support the NHL stepping in to get the project moving forward.

The Capital Build Taskforce, a sub-committee of the Ottawa Board of Trade focused on supporting key economic development in the National Capital Region, commissioned local polling firm Abacus Data to conduct a survey of Ottawa residents. The survey of 600 residents asked their views and perceptions on the LeBreton Flats Redevelopment project.

Here are the key findings:

ALMOST SEVEN IN TEN OTTAWA RESIDENTS THINK THE REDEVELOPMENT OF LEBRETON FLATS WILL BE A GOOD OR GREAT THING FOR THE CITY.

Support for redeveloping LeBreton Flats was consistent across Ottawa but those living in South, Central and East Ottawa and Orleans were particularly excited about the potential of the project as were residents aged 60 and over.

DESPITE THE EXCITEMENT FOR THE PROJECT, MANY OTTAWA RESIDENTS WANT MORE INFORMATION AND FEEL THE PROJECT MAY BE DELAYED.

The remainder of the survey explored public attitudes and awareness of the LeBreton Flats redevelopment project’s progress. The survey found that:

Four in ten Ottawa residents have been following news about the development at LeBreton Flats closely. Ottawa Senators fans were twice as likely to be following news of the story closely than non-fans (50% vs. 25%).

Despite the interest, almost half of Ottawa residents feel that there has not been enough public information about the project. 49% say there has not been enough information, compared with 45% who feel there has been enough information and 6% who say there has been more than enough.

This feeling is consistent in all regions of the city and exists even among those who have been following the issue closely.

Despite the lack of information, there’s a sense in the community that the project is running behind schedule. 42% feel this way while 22% feel the project is running ahead or on schedule. One in three aren’t sure about the schedule.

Among those paying closer attention to the issue, 50% think it’s running behind while 36% think it’s running on or ahead of schedule.  44% of Ottawa Senators fans think it’s running behind schedule.

When told that the events centre included in the redevelopment of LeBreton Flats is slated to open by Fall 2023, most residents have doubts that it will be done on time. 43% feel the event centre might or might not open by fall 2023 while 28% feel it’s unlikely or certain to not happen by that time.

There is even some concern that the project may not be completed at all: 15% of Ottawa residents feel that the project is certain not to or unlikely to be completed while 38% are more confident that the project will eventually be completed. Those following the project closely are more skeptical with 23% saying it’s unlikely that the re-development will ever be completed.

IF SENATORS OWNER EUGENE MELNYK DRAGS HIS FEET, RESIDENTS WANT THE COMMUNITY TO RALLY TO MOVE THE PROJECT FORWARD.

When told that some people in Ottawa feel that Senators owner Eugene Melnyk is delaying progress on the project because he feels the development is risky because of another project nearby and is concerned about ticket sales, most across the city agree that the business community should rally together and do whatever is necessary to get the project moving ahead on time.

Ottawa Senators fans were more likely to feel this way.

Another eight in ten residents agree that “the LeBreton Flats project is so important for Ottawa’s future that community leaders and residents need to stand up publicly.” This feeling is more intensely felt among those following the project closely (86%), among Ottawa Senators fans (88%), and those who think the project will be a great or good thing for the city (85%).

MOST RESIDENTS WOULD EVEN SUPPORT THE NHL STEPPING IN TO GET THE PROJECT DONE.

60% of residents and 67% of Ottawa Sens fans would support NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman and the NHL getting involved to ensure the project moves ahead on time.

THE OTTAWA SENATORS HAVE MUCH TO GAIN BY MOVING THE TEAM TO LEBRETON FLATS. MOST OTTAWA RESIDENTS ARE OTTAWA SENATORS FANS AND THE IMPORTANCE OF THE LEBRETON REDEVELOPMENT PROJECT TO THE FRANCHISE REMAINS CLEAR.

Most Ottawa residents identify as Sens fans and the distribution of them across the city confirms why a downtown event centre at LeBreton Flats is important to the Senators organization’s long-term viability.

  • 65% of those who think the redevelopment of LeBreton Flats will be a great or good thing for Ottawa are Sens fans.
  • East Ottawa and Orleans residents are more likely to be Sens fans than residents in any other part of the city. 71% of East Ottawa/Orleans residents say they are Sens fans compared with 61% in the West/Kanata, 62% in the South end of the city, and 54% in central Ottawa.

THE UPSHOT

The LeBreton Flats redevelopment is a project that most feel will mean good things for the city, but many residents, including those most excited about the project, Sens fans, feel there hasn’t been enough information about the project. Many feel the project is running behind schedule and about a quarter of residents believe the project will likely miss its 2023 target completion date.

It’s no surprise then that most agree that the community should rally to get the project moving, especially Sens fans. Most would even support the NHL stepping in to make sure the project moves forward – including almost 7 in 10 of Sens fans in the city.

The survey also confirms the importance of the project to the Ottawa Senators franchise. Moving the home of the Ottawa Senators to central Ottawa will bring the team closer to more fans – east Ottawa and Orleans residents are the most likely to be Sens fans – and make it easier for hockey fans in Gatineau to experience the game.

It’s clear the residents of Ottawa want the project to succeed, recognize the positive impact it will have on the city, and want the community to rally to get the project completed and bring hockey to the centre of the city, even if it means pushing Mr. Melnyk to act.

ABOUT THE SURVEY

The survey was conducted online with 600 Ottawa residents aged 18 and over from Aug 21st to 25th, 2018. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from the LegerWeb platform.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 4%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ottawa’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABACUS DATA INC.

Abacus Data is an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD.

We all value integrity, hard work, and creativity believing good research insights come from an intense focus on our clients, rigourous methods, and occasionally challenging convention.

Whether it is a public opinion study on a challenging issue or consumer research on product and pricing design, market sizing, our team has the experience and energy to deliver deep insights on-time, on-budget, and with a creative perspective.

MediaPolls

Abacus Data Continues to Grow

Abacus Data welcomes Yvonne Langen as the new Business Development Manager. Yvonne comes to us with a breadth of experience in account management, lead generation, relationship management, marketing, and communications. She holds a Bachelor of Journalism from Carleton University and a Master of Arts from the University of Toronto.

Yvonne will be responsible for cultivating relationships with prospective clients and stewarding existing clients.

“Over the past eight years, Abacus Data has grown from a small, two-person shop into one of Canada’s most innovative market research firms,” said David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data. “With Yvonne as part of the team, we will now be able to grow even more by leveraging the interest that our work generates.”

The addition of Ms. Langen follows the promotion of Ihor Korbabicz to the role of Executive Director. Ihor will lead the day-to-day organization and coordination of research efforts at Abacus Data.

Maciej Czop has also been promoted to the role of Senior Consultant. Over the past two years, Maciej has taken on increasing responsibility in managing accounts and driving new business to our firm.

“Public affairs research has changed significantly over the past several years. Canadians are less interested in political horse-race polls and increasingly want to know what’s behind the numbers,” concluded Tim Powers, Managing Director of Abacus Data. “At Abacus, our focus is on providing real insight and on making practical recommendations that our clients can use.”

About Abacus Data

Abacus Data is an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD.

We all value integrity, hard work, and creativity believing good research insights come from an intense focus on our clients, rigourous methods, and occasionally challenging convention.

Whether it is a public opinion study on a challenging issue or consumer research on product and pricing design, market sizing, our team has the experience and energy to deliver deep insights on-time, on-budget, and with a creative perspective.

We work with some of Canada’s leading corporations, brands, and associations including:

Shaw Communications, the Federation of Canadian Municipalities, the Canadian Bankers Association, the Air Canada Pilots Association, the Mining Association of Canada, the Co-operators Group, the Insurance Bureau of Canada, the Canadian Life and Health Insurance Association, the Dairy Farmers of Canada, Royal Canin, the Canadian Pharmacists Association, and the Forest Products Association of Canada.

Media

Canadian Perspectives on Pharmacare

AFFORDABILITY OF MEDICINE AND GROUP/PRIVATE INSURANCE PLANS

Today, 77% say that the medicines they need are affordable or “affordable enough” while 23% say they are unaffordable.  Those who do not have private or group health insurance coverage are about three times more likely to say the medicines they need are unaffordable.

In our survey, 70% have some form of private or group health insurance that provides coverage over and above the health services provided to all Canadians.

Among this group, 85% have a co-pay requirement when they are filling a prescription, all or some of the time. Those who have a co-pay requirement are almost unanimously of the view that the co-pay amount is affordable or affordable enough.

The large majority of those with private/group health insurance are satisfied with the role their plan plays in making medicine affordable and in terms of the range of medicines covered.

SUPPORT FOR FEDERAL TASK FORCE

Most Canadians (55%) believe that the work of the Task Force appointed to find ways to “ensure that everyone in Canada can afford the medicines they need” should be a high priority, and 10 people support the idea of the Task Force for every 1 who is opposed.

When considering the outcomes from the work of the Task Force and any government initiatives to flow from it, Canadians are broadly hoping that costs for taxpayers will be contained, that no one will be required to switch from their insurance plan to a government plan, that nothing should be done to put group benefits at risk of cancellation by employers.  Seventy-five percent believe it is quite or very important that “government shouldn’t spend on those who already have prescription drug coverage.”

CONCLUSIONS

A broad majority of Canadians support the government’s decision to examine ways to help make medicines affordable for all Canadians.  The majority of those who currently have private or group health insurance say that they find medicine affordable enough today – which explains why they would expect government to focus on those who lack such coverage.

At this juncture, those with health benefits insurance do not appear to be looking for government to provide them with more support and hope that government will not do anything to put their benefits at risk, or cost more in tax dollars than needed.

METHODOLOGY

On behalf of the Canadian Life and Health Insurance Association, Abacus Data conducted a nationwide online public opinion study among 2000 adult Canadians from July 18 to 22, 2018.

A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from randomly selected Canadian adults who are members of the Maru Voice Canada online panel.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.  The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Canadian PoliticsMediaPolls

Is there any middle ground in the pipeline and carbon price debate?

Two of the more contentious issues in Canadian politics, issues that may play an important role in the next federal election, are the Trans Mountain Pipeline and the idea of putting a price on carbon pollution. We recently polled Canadians to see how opinion is shaping up on these issues now.

While the future of the Trans Mountain project faces a new element of uncertainty given the Federal court decision (August 30), political parties may find it useful to bear in mind where public opinion is on the question.  

With that in mind, here’s what we found:

The TMX pipeline has not turned out, to this point anyway, to be galvanizing opinion to the extent that might have been expected. Across Canada 34% favour the project, 20% oppose it, but more people (46%) said they had no strong views.

In BC, we find 33% support, 28% oppose, and again, a plurality indicating no strong views.  Albertans, are more preoccupied with the issue, and two out of three Albertans support the project.  If you remove the two provinces most directly affected, the picture for the rest of the country is 29% for, 20% against and 51% with no strong views.

Even within the context of partisan politics, the TMX pipe has not become overly heated.  The Conservative have put considerable focus on their support for the pipeline. Meanwhile a fairly slim majority 53% of Conservative voters support the project and a third have no strong views.

New Democrats have been vocal and persistent in their opposition to the project.  But among NDP voters, only 33% oppose the TMX pipeline.  Among Liberals, 34% support, 18% oppose, and the rest have no strong views.

These numbers call into question any analysis which suggests that the pipeline has become a galvanizing political question on a broader level, although undoubtedly there may be some ridings where opinions are more heated and divided.  These numbers also suggest that the decision by the federal government to buy the pipeline has also not had a major impact on public opinion, one way or the other.

Turning to the federal carbon tax, opinion is more formed, by 15 points.  Today, 34% support the idea, 35% oppose and 31% have no strong views.  Quebecers are the most supportive (43%) while Alberta is at the opposite end of that spectrum with 49% opposition.

Across party lines, most Conservative voters (63%) oppose a carbon tax while 16% favour it and 22% don’t have strong views. Among Liberal and NDP voters, a plurality support carbon pricing while about one in five are opposed to it.

Taken together these numbers suggest enthusiasm for a carbon tax is limited – people rarely enthuse about a new tax.  At the same time opposition to the idea is also perhaps less widespread than might be imagined, given the strenuous opposition mounted by critics of the idea.

Vigorous opposition to the carbon price often comes from those who are most adamantly in favour of the pipeline.  The reverse is true as well: that some stakeholders are passionately in favour of a pricing carbon pollution and stopping new pipelines.

We decided to see how many Canadians hold those binary views (price carbon/no pipe vs build pipe/no price on carbon.)

Just 18% of Canadians are pro-pipeline and anti-carbon price.  Just 11% are pro carbon price and anti-pipeline.  The remaining 71% are less entrenched.

The chart below highlights the positions of the Conservative and New Democratic parties, to underscore the finding that compared to these partisan arguments, most Canadians reveal a mixture of nuance, balance, and in some cases, indifference to these choices. As an example, 25% of Canadians have a position on carbon pricing and yet don’t care much about the pipeline.

We tested the appeal of three alternatives: i) carbon priced and no pipeline ii) pipeline and no carbon price, and iii) the federal approach of more pipeline capacity and a carbon price. Just 22% chose the anti-oil option, 32% the pro-oil option, while 46% supported the middle ground.

The transition approach was supported by 52% of Liberal voters, 50% of NDP voters, and 32% of Conservative voters, and preferred by a plurality in BC (46%) Alberta (46%) and Ontario (48%).

 UPSHOT

 According to Bruce Anderson:

“These results reveal several things. The level of public engagement on carbon pricing and the TMX pipeline is higher than on some other issues, but a lot of people who do not have strong or dogmatic views on either issue.

Second, some of those who want a pipeline aren’t so pro-oil that they are dead set against a carbon price, and some of those who want a carbon price aren’t dead set against a pipeline. The binary (pro or anti-oil) advocacy of left and right partisans on these issues may resonate with activists and party bases but doesn’t connect as well with mainstream voters.

Finally, the idea of a transition where Canada moves its oil to new markets while embracing policies like pricing carbon that help create a shift towards cleaner energy is the approach that nets the largest number of opinions in Canada, including in regions most directly affected.  Balance and transition may not sound like compelling rhetoric but it does seem to reflect how Canadians feel we should make progress on climate change while protecting jobs and economic well-being.”

According to David Coletto:

“This is another reminder that few Canadians view issues through a black or white/ all or nothing frame. Many have what may seem like contradictory views but are in fact, highly logical to those who hold them.

When it comes to energy and the environment, this data confirms other research we have been doing for years. That most Canadians are pragmatic. They increasingly want governments to do more to tackle climate change. They see logic in pricing carbon. But the same folks also see value in continuing to gain economic benefit from the carbon resources we have, including building infrastructure to move the product to markets that need it.

This data continues to show that the debate over carbon pricing and pipelines is not settled. That most people don’t hold strong views and a public debate can still shift perceptions and attitudes”

Methodology

Our survey was conducted online with 1500 Canadians aged 18 and over from August 15 to 20, 2018. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey for a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20.  The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

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Will Max Bernier be a spoiler for the Conservative Party?

It’s too early to know how Max Bernier’s full-blown attack on the Conservative Party of Canada will play out, but in our latest polling, we explored how people react to his arguments about that party and his decision to launch a new party based on some key policies.

Readers should bear in mind that all we can do at this point is measure the potential impact if Mr. Bernier were able to organize a slate of candidates and make his arguments heard – neither of which is a given.

With those caveats, here’s what we find:

Before introducing the subject of Mr. Bernier’s announcement, we measured voting intention and found them almost identical to the wave of research we released on Friday.  The Liberals have a modest lead with 37% of the vote, followed by the Conservatives at 33% and the NDP at 18%.

After describing Mr. Bernier’s criticism of the Conservatives and informing respondents about his intention to form a new party which would reduce immigration, end supply management and avoids retaliatory tariffs against the US, we asked voting intentions again.

In an election with such a Bernier Party on offer, the Liberal lead would widen from 4 to 6 points nationally, but with potentially more significant impacts on a regional basis. Thirteen percent say they would vote for this Bernier Party with half of them coming from the Conservative Party support today.

Bernier could pull votes from all demographic groups but more so among men, and younger voters.  Crucially, here are some impacts on a regional basis:

BC:  Bernier could win 10% support, drawing both from the Liberals who would drop to 27% and the Conservatives who would drop to 20%, leaving the NDP ahead with 30%.

Ontario:  Bernier could win 11%, which would turn what is now a dead heat into a 5-point lead for the Liberals.  The Liberals would hold 36%, the Conservatives 31% the NDP 17%.

Quebec: Bernier could win 15%, with the second largest vote total, heavily impacting the potential for the Conservatives.  The Liberals would be looking at 41% support, followed by Bernier at 15%, the Bloc at 13% and the Conservatives and NDP tied at 11%.

We tested reactions to three of the arguments made by Mr. Bernier as to why he decided to leave the party. We asked respondents whether they agreed with those statements personally.

“The Conservative Party is too intellectually corrupt to be reformed”. 

Across the country, 55% agree with that argument, as do 21% of current Conservative Party voters, and 22% of those who voted Conservative in 2015.  Agreement is 55% in BC, 54% in Ontario and 60% in Quebec.


“The Conservative Party has abandoned conservatives – it does not represent them anymore and has nothing of substance to offer Canadians looking for a political alternative.”

Across the country, 54% agree with that argument, as do 29% of current Conservative Party voters, and 30% of those who voted Conservative in 2015.  Agreement is 55% in BC, 59% in Ontario and 55% in Quebec.

“The whole strategy of the Conservative Party is to play identity politics, pander to various interest groups, and buy votes with promises, just like the Liberals”.

Across the country, 62% agree with that argument, as do 36% of current Conservative Party voters, and 40% of those who voted Conservative in 2015.  Agreement is 59% in BC, 62% in Ontario and a striking 72% in Quebec.

Asked how they would react if Mr. Bernier formed a new political party “that would be opposed to retaliatory tariffs on the United States, eliminate Canada’s dairy and poultry supply management systems and reduce immigration levels, 6% say they would be certain to vote for that party another 10% likely to, and 33% say they might consider doing so.

Certain/likely Bernier voters range from a low of 12% in Atlantic Canada to a high of 20% in Quebec.  Men are almost twice as likely to be in this group, and Bernier’s potential is higher among those under 45 than those above that age.

A total of 18% of current Conservative voters say they are certain or likely to vote for the Bernier Party as described, another 34% say would consider it, 22% say they are unlikely to.  Just 22% say they are certain not to.

UPSHOT

Bearing in mind that we are measuring reaction to an idea on a drawing board, and there is no certainty that Mr. Bernier will be able to build and market a party with these messages coming through clearly, this poll is by nature speculative and should be read as such.

Having said that, the results show that a considerable minority of Conservative voters find Mr. Bernier and his message attractive and confirm that he has the potential to divide and weaken the prospects of the Conservative Party heading into the 2019 election. The most important impacts could be felt in Ontario and Quebec, where 199 of 338 seats are at stake.  Seats the Conservatives might be considering potential gains could have a greater chance of falling into the Liberal column.

Given that 20% and 40% of current conservative voters agree to some extent with the views expressed by Mr. Bernier, Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer can ill afford to ignore this threat.  However, if he puts too much emphasis on trying to assuage these sentiments, he risks alienating mainstream voters who do not find Mr. Bernier’s arguments appealing, and also drawing constant attention to the fact that there are divisions within his Party.  Mr. Bernier may or may not turn out to be a spoiler in 2019, but he undoubtedly spoiled some of the narrative that Conservatives were hoping their Halifax Convention would deliver.

There is, of course, a good possibility that nothing will come of Mr. Bernier’s announcement, in terms of a new party being prepared to compete in the 2019 election in which case the only issue will be whether the criticisms he raised about the Conservative policies and leader remain as factors that will stall or reverse the Party’s recent gains.

Methodology

Our survey was conducted online with 1,000 Canadians aged 18 and over from August 24 to 25, 2018. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey for a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is
+/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.  The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Canadian PoliticsMediaPolls

2019 race may feature many issues: From climate change, debt & housing, to borders and gun violence and, always, Trump.

We are about a year away from the start of the 2019 federal election. Last week, we polled 1,500 Canadian adults on how they are seeing their political choices and the issues that they are most concerned about.

Here are the highlights as we see them:

Our latest polling on the national political mood shows the Liberal Party would win 37% support if a vote were held now, followed by the Conservatives at 33% and the NDP with 18%. This is largely unchanged from last month and mimics the numbers we found in March.

Regionally, we see a significant lead for the Liberals in Quebec, and a dead heat in Ontario, the two provinces that combined will choose 199 of the 338 Members of Parliament next fall.  The Conservatives have a big lead in Alberta, while the Liberals continue to do well in BC and Atlantic Canada.

Some 41% say they think the country is on the right track (42% last month), and 44% approve of the performance of the federal government (the same number as last month).

The government enjoys better approval ratings among those aged under 45.

Today, 43% have a positive opinion of Justin Trudeau and 36% have a negative opinion (unchanged from last month).  For Andrew Scheer, the sentiment is 26% positive and 25% negative, and for Jagmeet Singh results are 22% positive and 26% negative.

We explored the current level of concern about a variety of topical issues and found that Donald Trump, climate change and health care top the list of 9 items we tested, with gun violence and cannabis legalization ranking 9th and 10th.  Housing affordability ranked 4th and the number of border crossings ranked 5th.

For voters under 45, Trump, climate change, and housing affordability are the top three issues while gun violence, border crossing, and cannabis legalization are at the bottom of the list.

For those 45 and over, Donald Trump, the health care system, and housing affordablility are in the top three. Concern about the number of border crossing is higher among these respondents while concern about climate change is somewhat lower.

Among Liberal voters, Trump, climate change and health care top the list, with border crossings, debt, and cannabis at the bottom. Among Conservatives, border crossings and debt are at the top of the list, and climate change is at the bottom.

We also isolated some differences across regions with a focus on those who are extremely concerned about these the issues we tested.

For those living in Canada’s largest cities, gun violence is far more likely to be a concern than those living in other communities. Big city residents are also 5 points more likely to be extremely concerned about housing affordability – although this gap is smaller than some might expect and suggests that housing affordability concerns are not just isolated to Canada’s largest cities.

Big differences also exist between Ontario and Alberta and Alberta and BC, demonstrating the challenge parties will have to appeal to voters in these provinces.

Ontario residents are three times as likely to be extremely concerned about gun violence and twice as likely to be concerned about housing affordability, compared with Albertans.

Despite its shared border, Alberta and BC residents differ in their preoccupations. Housing affordability is a major issue for almost half of BC residents while only 9% of Albertans feel the same. Albertans show comparatively higher concern about government debt and border crossings.

UPSHOT

The race to the 2019 election is starting to take shape and at this point, the Liberals face a highly competitive Conservative Party. Whether Maxime Bernier’s decision to leave the Conservative Party has the potential to undermine the competitiveness of Mr. Scheer’s Tories will be interesting to watch, especially in Quebec, where the Conservative brand had been seeing an uptick in support.

The issue landscape seems unusually crowded and varied heading into the coming election year.  In different provinces, by community size, age, and along party lines, a variety of different issues that have the potential to motivate voter support: at this point, there isn’t a single galvanizing and unifying issue.

Without a doubt, Donald Trump continues to dominate the news for Canadian voters and managing that complex relationship will be an important predictor of confidence in the Liberals. We also note that climate change continues to show a heightened level of public concern, no doubt again this year influenced by news of wildfires that continue to burn in much of BC and Northern Ontario.  Many voters will expect any candidate seeking their vote to offer ideas about combating climate change.

At this point, the border crossing issue is of much higher concern for Conservative voters than others.  Supporters of both other parties, and certainly big city voters under 45, are more likely to be looking for solutions to housing affordability.

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 1,500 Canadians aged 18 and over from August 15 to 20, 2018. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey for a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20.  The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Canadian PoliticsMediaPolls