Research Objectives

In June, Canada launched its first-ever National Strategy for Financial Literacy and the country is now examining how best to increase the financial knowledge and skills of Canadians.

On behalf of the Canadian Bankers Association, Abacus conducted an extensive nationwide study of Canadians’ financial aspirations and their know-how when it comes to managing money in ways that will help them achieve their goals. This research is designed to explore the values, financial goals and priorities of Canadians of different ages and to get a better understanding of what financial issues they would like to know more about and where they go to look for information. This study is being widely released so that all financial literacy organizations can use the knowledge to properly evaluate their programs and ensure that they are reaching all generations in this digital age.

This is the fourth of a series of releases to highlight key elements of this fascinating study.

Important Sources of Information

Canadians learn about money from a wide variety of sources. Information is passed on from financial service staff but also from friends and family. Just over 7 in 10 say that older generations were helpful sources for them, and two thirds have counted on peers and friends.

School courses have been useful sources for the majority of those interviewed. As technology has changed so many marketplaces, it is also playing a strong role in the dissemination of learning about money. Financial service company websites are important sources of information for about 6 in 10 people, and almost as many say they use government publications and websites.

When it comes to generational differences, Millennials are more likely to say that social media and other websites, advertisements, financial service provider websites, and government websites are important sources compared to older generations while Gen Xers and Boomers are more likely to say that financial service provider staff are important. Millennials are more likely to rely on digital sources while Boomers, for example, are more likely to rely on more traditional sources of information.

When it comes to socio-economic status, we find almost no difference across income groups except when it comes to financial service provider staff – lower income respondents were somewhat less likely to say they are important sources for information.

Trusted Sources of Information

Most people say they trust the information about money that they get from staff and financial service companies as they do advice from people who are older. Peers, government, and school sources are almost as well trusted, with two thirds or more saying they trust these sources.

Trust levels are lower when it comes to advertisements and social media and general websites. This suggests that people consider the source more important than the platform when it comes to trust.

News media stories do not enjoy particularly high levels of trust when it comes to this subject matter.

We examined differences by generation on these questions and found relatively few important differences. Across all generations, people are about equally likely to trust peers and friends, as well as staff in financial services companies. There are slightly higher levels of trust in social media and general websites among younger people, but the differences are modest.

We also find lower trust levels among those whose household income is $50,000 or less for financial service provider staff and websites. Otherwise, there is little variation across socio-economic status.

The Upshot

Learning about money is something that is not a function of any single source of information, rather it happens over time through a combination of formal/structural ways and informal peer and inter-generational influences.

For the most part, it appears that Canadians feel they have access to a good number of information sources they can trust, using traditional, word of mouth and digital delivery systems. While generations differ on many things, how they acquire information and the sources they trust are not all that different, when it comes to learning how to manage money well.

Methodology

The survey, commissioned by the Canadian Bankers Association, was conducted online with 1,978 Canadians aged 18 to 70 from April 10 to 21, 2015. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data Inc.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD.

Remarkably Few Unhappy with New Government

While less than half of Canadian voters marked a ballot for a Liberal candidate, only 19% are unhappy with the performance of the Trudeau government so far.

This view cuts across regional, demographic and political lines to a remarkable degree.

Demographically, there is little difference in overall approval with 49% of men and 52% of women saying they approve of the job the federal government is doing. Only about 1 in 5 disapprove. A majority or large plurality of Canadians across all age groups also approve including 56% among those aged 18 to 29 and 54% of those aged 60 and over.

Regionally, Atlantic Canadians (66% approve), Ontarians (54% approve), Quebecers (50% approve) and British Columbians (50% approve) are the most likely to approve of the job performance of the federal government. Even in Alberta, more respondents approve (38%) than disapprove (34%).

Almost 6 in 10 NDP voters approve of the job the federal government is doing, as do 47% of Green voters, and 31% of BQ voters. 81% of those who voted Liberal approve of the federal government’s job performance thus far. Among Conservative voters, 16% approve while 48% disapprove. The rest say they neither approve nor disapprove.

Detailed Performance Assessments

We asked respondents to rate the performance of the new government on 11 different criteria. Large majorities said they thought the government was doing an acceptable or good job on all 11.

Strongest ratings were for “openness and accessibility” where 62% said Mr. Trudeau was doing a good job, and another 31% said “acceptable”. Only 8% gave the PM negative ratings on this criteria.

While his critics said that Mr. Trudeau would embarrass the country internationally, Canadians have reacted differently. 55% give him a good rating, 31% acceptable and only 14% negative when it comes to the way he has represented Canada on the international stage (Note – this survey was taken after his participation in the G20 meeting).

Similarly good reactions were found on the “values he is showing in how he handles his job” the “choices he made in appointing his cabinet, and “his approach to working with the provincial premiers.” In each case, no more than 12% of the public give the PM a poor rating (Note- the survey was partially in the field after the First Ministers’ Meeting ended on Monday).

On his “approach to climate change and greenhouse gases”, the PM gets good marks from 37%, acceptable from 39%, and negative reviews from 13%.

On handling the economy and tax dollars, 77%-79% are satisfied.

One of the two weakest ratings for the PM was on his approach to dealing with the question of refugees, where 33% offered a poor rating (The timing of the survey was before the government announced that it would stretch its timetable to settle refugees into the new year).

The other weakest rating is on his “approach to dealing with the threat of ISIS”. On this item, 35% give the PM a good rating, 34% acceptable, and 31% a poor rating.

For the most part demographic patterns are consistent on these performance assessments. The following charts show the patterns on five of these assessments: representing Canada internationally, his handling of climate change, ISIS, refugees, and his approach to appointing his cabinet.

When it comes to his approach to the issue of climate change and greenhouse gas, evaluations are consistent across demographic groups. Atlantic Canadians, Quebecers, and Ontarians are most likely to rate his approach as very good or good. 30% of only three subgroups (Albertans, Conservative voters, and those who self identify as on the right) give Mr. Trudeau poor marks for his approach to climate change.

In terms of dealing with ISIS, seven out of ten (69%) rate Mr. Trudeau’s performance as at least acceptable and this is consistent across all age groups and genders. Among Conservative voters, 10% rate his performance as good or very good, 28% rate it as acceptable while 62% believe Mr. Trudeau’s approach is poor or very poor. When it comes to ideology, those on the left are most likely to favour Mr. Trudeau’s approach while those on the right are less likely to. That being said, 35% of those who self-identify as being on the right of the spectrum rate his performance on dealing with ISIS as good or very good.

Few give Mr. Trudeau poor marks on the choices he made in appointing his cabinet. There was little demographic or regional variation. Most Conservative voters (72%) even found his choices to be good or acceptable.

A majority of Canadians (55%) rate Mr. Trudeau’s performance internationally as good and these feelings are consistent across demographic and regional subgroups. Even a majority who self-identify as being on the right of the political spectrum are generally satisfied with his performance.

Finally, when it comes to his approach to dealing with the question of refugees, there is little overall variation beyond political support. 64% of Conservative voters felt Mr. Trudeau’s approach is poor or very poor while 36% felt it was good or acceptable. Most Liberal voters (85%) and NDP voters (77%) find Mr. Trudeau’s approach on the refugee file to be good or acceptable.

The Upshot

Throughout this survey it is clear that people for the most part believe that Mr. Trudeau is handling his responsibility as PM in a way they find acceptable. The shape of these responses seems less a function of them having had low expectations based on his critics “he’s not ready” mantra and more a reaction to the way he has put his government in place, the choices he made in appointing a cabinet, his apparent determination to be more accessible, and his manner representing Canada abroad.

These numbers suggest that opposition criticisms of the various steps the government has taken so far have landed weakly – Canadians seem to be forming their own opinions, and positive ones for the most part.

This is even true on the complex issues of what to do with the threat of ISIS and how to respond to the refugee crisis. Even in these two areas, while most people didn’t vote for Mr. Trudeau, most people find his handling of these issues acceptable or better.

Methodology

Our survey was conducted online with 1,500 Canadians aged 18 and over from November 23 to November 25, 2015. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data Inc.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD.

Research Objectives

In June, Canada launched its first-ever National Strategy for Financial Literacy and the country is now examining how best to increase the financial knowledge and skills of Canadians.

On behalf of the Canadian Bankers Association, Abacus conducted an extensive nationwide study of Canadians’ financial aspirations and their know-how when it comes to managing money in ways that will help them achieve their goals. This research is designed to explore the values, financial goals and priorities of Canadians of different ages and to get a better understanding of what financial issues they would like to know more about and where they go to look for information. This study is being widely released so that all financial literacy organizations can use the knowledge to properly evaluate their programs and ensure that they are reaching all generations in this digital age.

This is the third of a series of releases to highlight key elements of this fascinating study.

How Financially Literate Are We?

As part of the study, we asked respondents five financial knowledge multiple choice questions. The questions had varied levels of difficulty to provide some insight into how financially literate Canadians from different generations and socio-economic backgrounds are.

The questions we asked are reported at the end of this report.

Overall, only 13% of Canadians aged 18 and over got all five questions correct. Another 25% got four right with 27% getting three right. Over one in three failed to get more than two of the questions correct.

Profiling the Most and Least Financially Knowledgeable

Significant demographic and socio-economic differences exist between Canadians who have the most and least financial knowledge. We detail those who answered all five questions correctly (most knowledgeable) and those who answered none or only one of the questions correctly.

Most Financially Knowledgeable – Correctly Answered all 5 Questions

Representing just over one in ten Canadians (13%), those who correctly answered all five of the financial knowledge questions correctly are more likely to be male (58%), are generally older (80% are aged 45 or older), and most (54%) have a university education. Household incomes among the most financially knowledgeable are also the highest, with 54% making $75,000 per year or more. Four in ten (44%) say they have a financial advisor.

Least Financially Knowledgeable – Correctly Answered None or Only One Question

Also representing over one in ten Canadians (15%), those who answered none or only one of the financial knowledge questions correctly are more likely to be female (61%), are younger (54% are aged 35 or younger), and most (57%) have high school education or less. Household incomes among the least financially knowledgeable are lowest on average, with 48% living in households that make less than $50,000 per year. Only 26% say they have a financial advisor.

The results also reveal:

• Millennials are less financially knowledgeable than Gen Xers or Baby Boomers. Only 26% of Millennials got four or more questions right, compared with 38% of Gen X, and 51% of Baby Boomers.

• Those with lower household incomes were less financially literate. Among those in households earning less than $35,000 per year, 44% failed the test and only 27% got four or more right. Canadians in the highest income bracket were the most financially literate with 52% getting four or more right and few getting one or less right.

• Among those with a financial advisor, 45% got four or more questions correct compared with 33% among those without a financial advisor.

• Respondents have a more difficult time answering questions that relate to interest and choosing which financial strategy is better in certain circumstances. Many also underestimate what the cost of housing will have on their monthly budgets.

The Upshot

Our financial literacy test reveals that a substantial proportion of Canadians lack a basic understanding of simple financial concepts. Just over two in three respondents we surveyed could correctly answer a majority of the questions we asked and 15% answered one or less correctly.

Noteworthy are the generational and socio-economic differences our study found. Younger Canadians, those earning less, and those without a financial advisor are less knowledge about financial matters.

Financially literacy test questions and percent of respondents selecting them.

1. Suppose you had $100 in a savings account and the interest rate was 2% per year. After 5 years, would you have: $102, more than $102, less than $102?
$102 – 7%
More than $102 [correct answer] – 83%
Less than $102 – 4%
Not sure – 7%

2. Imagine that you put $10,000 into a savings account that paid interest of 1% a year. Inflation was 2% per year. After 1 year, would you be better off, worse off, or no better or worse off?
Better off – 15%
Worse off [correct answer] – 51%
No better or worse off – 16%
Not sure – 18%

3. Let’s imagine someone has a $100,000 mortgage on their home and the mortgage interest rate is 3.0%. They come into a windfall of $10,000. Would they be better to invest that $10,000 in a bond that pays them 5%/2% (split sample) or put the $10,000 towards reducing their mortgage?

(split sample with 5%)
Bond that pays 5% [correct answer] – 37%
$10,000 towards reducing their mortgage – 42%
Not sure – 21%

(split sample with 2%)
Bond that pays 2% – 13%
$10,000 towards reducing their mortgage [correct answer] – 66%
Not sure – 22%

4. For the average household, what percentage of a household’s monthly income should ideally be spent on housing?
5% – 5%
25% – 52%
40% [correct answer] – 28%
70% – 2%
Not sure – 13%

5. How big should a household’s emergency fund ideally be?
1 week’s income – 3%
1 month’s income – 17%
6 months’ income [correct answer] – 58%
1 year’s income – 13%
Not sure – 10%

Methodology

The survey, commissioned by the Canadian Bankers Association, was conducted online with 1,978 Canadians aged 18 to 70 from April 10 to 21, 2015.A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data Inc.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD.

Research Objectives

In June, Canada launched its first-ever National Strategy for Financial Literacy and the country is now examining how best to increase the financial knowledge and skills of Canadians.

On behalf of the Canadian Bankers Association, Abacus conducted an extensive nationwide study of Canadians’ financial aspirations and their know how when it comes to managing money in ways that will help them achieve their goals. This research is designed to explore the values, financial goals and priorities of Canadians of different ages and to get a better understanding of what financial issues they would like to know more about and where they go to look for information. This study is being widely released so that all financial literacy organizations can use the knowledge to properly evaluate their programs and ensure that they are reaching all generations in this digital age.

This is the second of a series of releases to highlight key elements of this fascinating study.

Where Money Fits in our Values System

In discussions of politics, it’s common to suggest that economic matters dominate the concerns of citizens, and that may be somewhat accurate in terms of what they want political leaders to focus on. However, when we probed for the level of importance that people attach to different values, we found that financial success is not quite at the top of the list for most people.

Instead, enjoying good health, being close with family, being kind and thoughtful, and being well respected form the top of the list of what’s important to people.

Another thing that is interesting in the results is that more people attach importance to the “simpler things in life” than do “the finer things in life”.

In short, the results suggest that the Canadian dream, if there is a common one, is not first and foremost a dream of financial gain, but about enjoying good relations with others and earning respect for the way you live your life.

Are We Meeting our Goals?

We asked people, for each of the 23 items tested, how well they thought they were doing at meeting their goals. The results paint a country where most people feel they are meeting most of their goals. On the single most important value – maintaining good health – 27% said they were falling short of where they wanted to be. On being kind and thoughtful, and being close with family, less than 15% were unhappy with the way things were going.

The areas where the largest number of people said they were falling short of meeting their goals included seeing the world (50%), and taking the vacations they wanted (42%).

In terms of their financial success, 9% said they were exceeding their goals, 47% said they were meeting their goals, and 44% said they were falling short of meeting their goals.

Are Generations Different?

One of the things we wanted to explore in this study was the question of how values differ by generation. When it comes to the list of 10 things that were most important of the list of 23 values tested, our analysis revealed that:

• Every generation attaches the highest importance to health, but the importance is stronger among older people.

• Older people attach greater importance to “being kind and thoughtful” enjoying “the simpler things” living “in a good neighborhood”, “giving to those who have less”, “keeping up to date with the world” and “making a positive contribution to the community”.

• Younger generations attach greater importance to being financially successful, “achieving career success”, “seeing the world”, “finer things in life”, and “leaving a mark in your field”.

When it comes to assessing how well people are achieving their goals, there are some differences across generations.

• Millennials who prioritize being financial successful are more likely to say they are falling short of their goals (50%) than Gen Xers (45%) or Boomers (33%).

• Those from younger generations who prioritize seeing the world are more likely to say they are falling short of their goals.

• Gen Xers are more likely to say they are falling short of their goals when it comes to taking vacations they want.

• Millennials are also less likely to say they are meeting their goals when it comes to owning a nice home, leaving a mark in their field, and achieving career success – all functions of a life cycle effect.

Methodology

The survey, commissioned by the Canadian Bankers Association, was conducted online with 1,978 Canadians aged 18 to 70 from April 10 to 21, 2015. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.8%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data Inc.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD.

Research Objectives

In June, Canada launched its first-ever National Strategy for Financial Literacy and the country is now examining how best to increase the financial knowledge and skills of Canadians.

On behalf of the Canadian Bankers Association, Abacus conducted an extensive nationwide study of Canadians’ financial aspirations and their know how when it comes to managing money in ways that will help them achieve their goals. This research is designed to explore the values, financial goals and priorities of Canadians of different ages and to get a better understanding of what financial issues they would like to know more about and where they go to look for information. This study is being widely released so that all financial literacy organizations can use the knowledge to properly evaluate their programs and ensure that they are reaching all generations in this digital age.

This is the first of a series of releases to highlight key elements of this fascinating study.

How We Define Our Financial Goals

For most people, learning about how to manage their finances well is a means towards an end, not an end unto itself. And the aspiration that most people have in mind is the absence of worry. When given a choice of four different aspirations, the most important, easily, was “being unworried about finances”.

After that, equal numbers cite “being a smart manager of finances” and “becoming financially successful”. Far fewer embrace the goal of “understanding how markets and money work”.

This is an important backdrop when it comes to designing initiatives aimed at promoting financial literacy and know how. People want to achieve a sense of confidence rather than a particular level of detailed expertise.

We then asked people how well they thought they were doing at achieving each of these financial aspirations. The results show that very few people think they are failing (assigning themselves an “F” grade) on any of the aspirations, but few give themselves top marks either.

On the top ranked aspiration “being unworried about finances”, 40% gave themselves an A or B, while the plurality gave themselves a C, and 16% a D. When it comes to being “a smart manager of finances” the majority (52%) gave themselves an A or B, only 16% gave themselves a D or F. This highlights the fact that while improving financial literacy/know how is a useful initiative, the vast majority do not think they are starting from a very low level of knowledge.

What We Want to Know More About

We asked respondents to tell us which of a list of financial topics they felt like they needed to learn more about, as this information can help in developing priority content for financial literacy/know how initiatives. The results reveal:

• The large majority of people say they are knowledgeable enough about chequing accounts, savings accounts and credit cards. Roughly 20% say they could stand to know more about these common financial products.

• Between 40% and 50% indicate they could usefully know more about a wide range of financial topics from interest rates, lines of credit, mortgages, RRSPs, TFSAs and many others.

• Finally, when it comes to mutual funds, bonds, stocks, and stock markets, upwards of two thirds indicate that they have a need to know more.

Are Generations Different?

An analysis of responses by generations shows that there are substantial differences in levels of confidence and knowledge about these topics. Millennials and Gen X respondents are far more likely than Baby Boomers to say they could stand to know more about the most common products like savings accounts as well as loans and other savings products such as TFSAs or RRSPs.

The results show that most people feel that they have some knowledge about financial management but that there are areas where they could stand to learn more, in order to achieve their financial aspirations. The level of know how varies significantly by generation, with younger people indicating that there are more gaps in their knowledge than they would like.

It’s also clear in the data that there is a segment of society (roughly 20%) which feels that it lacks sufficient know how about even the most common financial matters such savings and chequing accounts.

Methodology

The survey, commissioned by the Canadian Bankers Association, was conducted online with 1,978 Canadians aged 18 to 70 from April 10 to 21, 2015.A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data Inc.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD.

The Newfoundland and Labrador Liberal Party would win big if the election were held today, according to our new survey of 700 eligible voters in the province. Although down slightly, the Liberals have maintained their large lead over the incumbent PCs. Currently they lead by 42-points, down from the 47-point lead we measured at the start of the election campaign.

Liberal support is at 64% (down two since the start of the campaign) compared with 22% for the PCs (up three) and 13% for the NDP (down 2). Twelve percent of respondents say they are undecided.

The NL Liberals lead by a wide margin in every region of the province although the race is somewhat closer in St. John’s and on the Avalon Peninsula.

To put these results in context, in the last provincial election, the Conservatives won a large majority of 37 seats with 56% of the vote. The provincial Liberal support also continues to mirror the support received by the federal Liberals (65%) on October 19 during the federal election.

Accessible Voters

The Liberals not only have a large lead among committed supporters but they also continue to have the largest pool of potential or accessible voters. 72% of eligible voters (unchanged, marginally down by 1) we surveyed said they would consider voting Liberal compared with 36% for the PCs (up 4 since the start of the campaign) and 32% for the NDP (down 5 since our last wave).

These results indicate that although the PC accessible vote is up slightly, their campaign has not had much impact on its support or potential support. The Liberals remain in a commanding position with only 5 days left before most eligible voters cast a ballot.

Direction of the Province

One of the remarkable things about public opinion during this election, from both our province wide surveys and those of individual districts with VOCM, is the contradictory perceptions of eligible voters when it comes to their feelings about the direction of the province and their intense desire for change.

In our current survey, 53% of eligible voters felt that the province was headed in the right direction (marginally up 1) while 25% feel the provinces is off on the wrong track.

Despite the positive mood about the province as a whole, the desire for a change of government remains high, with 81% wanting change and 56% saying they definitely want a change in government. Although the intensity for change is down somewhat from the start of the campaign (60% said they definitely wanted change in our first survey of the campaign), it remains persistent.

Among those who definitely want a change in government, 63% are voting Liberal (down 5), 12% are voting NDP (down 4), and 18% are undecided at this point (up 7). The commanding Liberal lead continues to be built on the fact that it has maintained the support of those who want change.

Top Issues

Respondents were asked, unprompted, to name the most important issue facing Newfoundland and Labrador. The economy and health care continue to be the top issue of the campaign, largely unchanged since the beginning of the campaign. No other issue has moved up significantly since the start of the campaign.

Leadership: Ball still most popular; Davis improves

Dwight Ball remains the most popular political leader in the province with 50% having a positive impression of the Liberal leader (unchanged since the start of the campaign) and only 12% saying they have a negative impression of him (up 2 since the first wave). Although he continues to trail Mr. Ball, Premier Davis’ personal ratings have improved from the start of the campaign with 39% of eligible voters now saying they have a positive impression of the PC Leader (up 7) while his negatives have remained steady at 20%. NDP Leader Earle McCurdy is viewed positively by 25% of respondents and negatively by 31% (an increase since the start of the campaign).

Who Voters Think Will Win

Most eligible voters in the province still believe the Liberal Party will win the election on November 30. 81% said they thought the Liberals would win, up 5 since the start of the campaign. Seven percent picked the PCs while only 1% believed the NDP would win the election.

This view is now overwhelmingly shared among all party voters. 67% of PC supporters think the Liberals will win while 77% of NDP voters think the Liberals will win the election.

What is the election about?

In our final survey of the campaign, we asked respondents to pick which option, from a list, they felt best describes what the Newfoundland and Labrador provincial election was most about.

Responses were mixed with 29% saying the election is about which party and leader has the best plan for the economy. Another 27% said it was about which party and leader could work best with the new government in Ottawa while 23% said it was about which party and leader could deliver the change they were looking for. Keeping taxes low and voting for the leader who would make the best Premier were less likely to be thought what the election was about.

When we compare what people said the election was about with their vote intention, we find that the Liberal Party wins among all groups although its lead was smaller among those who believed the election was about the economy. Among those saying the election is about the economy, 55% are voting Liberal compared with 31% for the PCs and 13% for the NDP.

The Liberals hold commanding leads among those who say the election is about cooperation with the new Liberal government in Ottawa and among those who say it is about change.

The Upshot

As the 2015 Newfoundland and Labrador provincial election ends, the Liberal Party led by Dwight Ball remains in a very solid position to defeat the incumbent Progressive Conservative Government.

The desire for change has not dissipated much throughout the election campaign and as such, the PCs and Paul Davis have not been able to make much of a dent in the commanding Liberal lead. Just 7% of voters felt that the Conservatives will win, and that number has not grown since the campaign began. Moreover, almost all eligible voters expect the Liberals to win on Monday.

If the PCs do lose on Monday, it will not be because most people dislike Premier Davis or think the province is headed in the wrong direction but because people want change and see an opportunity for cooperation between a new provincial government and the new Liberal government in Ottawa.

According to our data, the campaign and all the leaders’ debates have not changed the trajectory of the campaign. Mr. Ball remains very popular and his Liberal Party continues to hold a commanding lead over the PCs and NDP. However, despite his popularity, only 7% felt the election will be about the best Premier. Moreover, even though taxes are a bedrock Conservative issue, just 4% of voters felt this election will be about taxes. The election of a new Liberal government in Ottawa is a consideration for many, and a strong driver of Liberal support and a change agenda.

Unless something fundamentally changes in the closing days of the election and voters change their minds, we expect Mr. Ball to be the next Premier of Newfoundland and Labrador

Methodology

The random live-interview telephone survey was conducted with 700 eligible voters living in Newfoundland and Labrador. The survey was completed from November 22 to 24, 2015.

The margin of error for a probability-based random sample of 700 respondents using a probability sample is +/- 3.8%, 19 times out of 20.

The data was statistically weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched population of Newfoundland and Labrador. The tables within this report detail the weighted and unweighted counts for the sample.

Note the small sample sizes when reviewing results in subgroups.

For more information about the poll’s methodology or the results, please contact David Coletto, CEO at david@abacusdata.ca or at 613-232-2806.

Abacus Data Inc.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD.

VOCM News commissioned Abacus Data to conduct surveys in four provincial electoral districts. Today, we report the results of a survey of 500 eligible voters living in Windsor Lake.

The Race for Windsor Lake

Liberal candidate and incumbent MHA Cathy Bennett has very large 58-point lead over PC candidate and former NDP MP Ryan Cleary in the district of Windsor Lake. 74% of committed voters in the district say they will vote for Ms. Bennett, followed by Mr. Cleary at 16% and NDP candidate Don Rowe in third at 10%. 23% of respondents were undecided or not voting.

Windsor Lake is a new district that includes parts of the former electoral districts of Cape St. Francis, St. John’s East, St. John’s North, and Virginia Waters. Cathy Bennett won a April 9, 2014 by-election in Virginia Waters defeat the PC candidate by 40 votes.

Download the full results deck here: https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Abacus-Newfoundland-and-Labrador-Political-Survey-Windsor-Lake-Nov-2015.pdf

Along with vote intentions, we also measured the mood of voters in the district, their perceptions of the party leaders, and what issues were most important to them.

Here’s what we found:

77% think it is time for a change in government (2 points below the provincial average).

The economy and jobs (39%), and health care (21%) are the top issues in the district, similar to provincial level findings and results in the three other districts we surveyed.

> 78% would consider voting Liberal (4 points above provincial average), 34% would consider voting NDP (3 points below provincial average) and 40% would consider voting PC (8 points above the provincial average).

> Liberal Leader Dwight Ball has the most favourable image in the district with 55% having a positive impression of him and only 10% viewing him negatively. PC Leader Paul Davis also have a net positive impression, although somewhat less positive than Mr. Ball. Forty-two percent view Mr. Davis positively while 21% view him negatively. NDP Leader Earle McCurdy is viewed positively by 19% of eligible voters and negatively by 30%. Mr. Ball’s net impression score is somewhat stronger than the provincial average (NL +40, Windsor Lake +45) while Mr. Davis’ numbers are considerably stronger (NL +7, Windsor Lake +21). Mr. McCurdy’s numbers are weaker in Windsor Lake than they are provincially (NL +4, Windsor Lake -11).

> Despite trailing the Liberals in Windsor Lake, most eligible voters in the district think the province is headed in the right direction (58%), six points higher than the provincial average.

> 86% of voters think the Liberal Party will win the provincial election and 73% think the Liberal candidate will win locally in Windsor Lake. Province-wide, 76% of respondents said they believed the Liberals would win the election.

> 49% of those we surveyed voted Liberal in the recent federal election, 26% voted NDP and 10% voted Conservative. 89% of those who voted Liberal federally are planning to vote for Ms. Bennett and the Liberals provincially (9% are voting for Mr. Cleary) while only 26% of federal NDP voters say they are planning on voting for the NDP candidate in the district (16% are voting PC while the majority (58%) are voting Liberal).

> Only 25% of those who voted PC in 2011 are planning on voting PC this time. 73% are voting Liberal and 1% say they will vote NDP.

The Upshot

Ryan Cleary made a splash when he announced that he was going to run for the provincial Progressive Conservatives soon after he was defeated in his re-election bid as the NDP MP for St. John’s South – Mount Pearl in the October Federal Election. Mr. Cleary’s entry into the race in Windsor Lake has not improved the PC Party’s chances of winning the district as Liberal candidate and incumbent MHA Cathy Bennett has a commanding 58-point lead over Mr. Cleary.

And although we didn’t ask respondents their opinion of Mr. Cleary directly, evidence suggests he may be pushing away supporters.

First, many of the underlying perceptions mirror what we have seen in the other three districts we have surveyed and in the province-wide survey we completed earlier this month. Three quarters of eligible voters want change, yet most think the province is headed in the right direction. And while Dwight Ball is the most popular leader in the district, a large plurality of eligible voters also have a favourable impression of PC Leader Paul Davis.

So what is different in Windsor Lake?  It is probably a Cleary effect. Two data points provide some clues.

Mr. Cleary is having little success attracting those who voted Conservative and NDP federally.. 48% of those who voted Conservative federally in October say they would vote for the provincial Liberals now while 58% of those who voted for the NDP federally are going to vote Liberal provincially. Mr. Cleary and the PCs are only attracting 46% of past federal Conservative voters and only 16% of past federal NDP voters.

Finally, and perhaps most instructive, 73% of those who said they voted PC in the 2011 provincial election are now planning to vote Liberal. That level of voter attrition from the Tories is 20 to 30 points higher than in the other districts we surveyed.

This all suggests that Mr. Cleary was not the prize the PCs thought and voters in Windsor Lake might be rejecting his choice to change political stripes.

Download the full results deck here: https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Abacus-Newfoundland-and-Labrador-Political-Survey-Windsor-Lake-Nov-2015.pdf

Methodology

The random live-interview telephone survey was conducted with 500 eligible voters living in the provincial electoral district of Windsor Lake. The survey was completed from November 12 to 16, 2015.

The margin of error for a probability-based random sample of 500 respondents using a probability sample is +/- 4.5%, 19 times out of 20.

The data was statistically weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched population of the electoral district.

Note the small sample sizes when reviewing results in subgroups.

For more information about the poll’s methodology or the results, please contact David Coletto, CEO at david@abacusdata.ca or at 613-232-2806.

Abacus Data Inc.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD. For more information, visit our website at http://www.abacusdata.ca/

VOCM News commissioned Abacus Data to conduct surveys in four provincial electoral districts. Today, we report the results of a survey of 500 eligible voters living in Mount Pearl North.

The Race in Mount Pearl North

Liberal candidate Randy Simms has a 17-point lead over PC candidate Steve Kent with 54% of decided voters in the district supporting Mr. Simms, followed by Mr. Kent at 37% and NDP candidate Cameron Mercer-Maillet in third at 9%. 22% of respondents were undecided or not voting.

Note, at the time the survey was in the field, the NDP had not yet nominated a candidate and a name was not included in the interview.

Download the full results deck here: https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Abacus-Newfoundland-and-Labrador-Political-Survey-Mount-Pearl-North-Nov-2015.pdf

We also measured the mood of voters in the district, their perceptions of the party leaders, and what issues were most important to them. Here’s what we found:

>  79% think it is time for a change in government (on par with the provincial average).

>  The economy and jobs (35%), and health care (23%) are the top issues in the district, similar to provincial level findings.

73% would consider voting Liberal (on par with the provincial average), 30% would consider voting NDP (7 points below provincial average) and 44% would consider voting PC (12 points above the provincial average).

> Liberal Leader Dwight Ball is the most popular party leader in the district (45% positive, 16% negative) although Mr. Davis’ personal numbers are not far behind (42% positive and 17% negative). Mr. Ball’s net impression score is lower than the provincial average (NL +40, Mount Pearl North +29) while Mr. Davis’ numbers are stronger (NL +7, Mount Pearl North +25). Mr. McCurdy’s numbers are somewhat lower in Mount Pearl North than provincially (NL +4, Mount Pearl North -8).

> Like in the other districts we surveyed, a majority of eligible voters in Mount Pearl North believe the province is headed in the right direction (similar to the provincial average at 54%), yet the PC candidate Steve Kent trails by almost 20 points.

> 80% of voters think the Liberal Party will win the provincial election, 4 points higher than the province wide average. When it comes to who will win in Mount Pearl North, expectations are much closer with 44% thinking the Liberal candidate will win compared 32% think the PC candidate will win the district.

> 57% of those we surveyed voted Liberal in the recent federal election, 25% voted NDP and 5% voted Conservative. 69% of those who voted Liberal federally are planning to vote for Mr. Simms and the Liberals provincially (28% are voting for Mr. Kent and the PCs) while only 25% of federal NDP voters say they are planning on voting for the NDP candidate in the district (47% are voting PC and 28% are voting Liberal).

The Upshot

Eligible voters in Mount Pearl North, like most Newfoundlanders and Labradorians, are looking for change. And this desire for a change in government is creating a significant challenge for high profile incumbent MHAs like Steve Kent in Mount Pearl North. Mr. Kent trails Liberal candidate Randy Simms by 17 points among committed voters despite the fact that most of the electorate thinks the province is headed in the right direction and PC Leader Paul Davis is well liked (he has a net impression rating of +25, very similar to Liberal Leader Dwight Ball). What appears to be contradictory opinions is really a strong desire for change overshadowing all other voter concerns. We think this explains how popular and well known PC incumbents like Mr. Kent are in tough for re-election.

Download the full results deck here: https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Abacus-Newfoundland-and-Labrador-Political-Survey-Mount-Pearl-North-Nov-2015.pdf

Methodology

The random live-interview telephone survey was conducted with 500 eligible voters living in the provincial electoral district of Mount Pearl North. The survey was completed from November 12 to 16, 2015.

The margin of error for a probability-based random sample of 500 respondents using a probability sample is +/- 4.5%, 19 times out of 20.

The data was statistically weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched population of the electoral district.

Note the small sample sizes when reviewing results in subgroups.

For more information about the poll’s methodology or the results, please contact David Coletto, CEO at david@abacusdata.ca or at 613-232-2806.

Abacus Data Inc.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD. For more information, visit our website at http://www.abacusdata.ca/

VOCM News commissioned Abacus Data to conduct surveys in four provincial electoral districts in Newfoundland and Labrador. Today, we report the results of a survey of 500 eligible voters living in Paradise-Topsail, an electoral district outside of St. John’s on the Avalon Peninsula.

Download the full results deck here: https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Abacus-Newfoundland-and-Labrador-Political-Survey-Topsail-Paradise-Nov-2015.pdf

The Race in Topsail-Paradise

Liberal candidate Rex Hillier has a 21-point lead over PC candidate, incumbent MHA, and NL Premier Paul Davis. Mr. Hillier has the support of 56% of decided voters in the district, followed by Mr. Davis at 35% with NDP candidate Chris Bruce in third at 9%. 24% of respondents said they were undecided or not voting in the election.

Along with vote intention, the survey also measured the mood of voters in the district, their perceptions of the party leaders, and what issues were most important to them. Here’s what we found:

> 71% of eligible voters think it is time for a change in government (8 points lower than the provincial average).

> In Topsail-Paradise, 71% of eligible voters would consider voting Liberal (2 points less than the provincial average), 46% would consider voting PC (14 points higher than provincial average) and 27% would consider voting NDP (10 points lower than the provincial average).

The economy and jobs (33%), and health care (21%) are the top issues in the district, similar to what we found provincially.

> Liberal Leader Dwight Ball and PC Leader Paul Davis have similar impressions among voters in the electoral district. A majority have a positive impression of both leaders (51% for Mr. Ball and 51% Mr. Davis) although Mr. Davis’ negatives are 7 points higher than Mr. Ball. NDP Leader Earle McCurdy is viewed positively by 18% of those in Topsail-Paradise and viewed negatively by 33%. Mr. Ball’s net impression score is on par with the provincial average (NL +40 , Topsail-Paradise +38) while Mr. Davis’ numbers are substantially higher (NL +7, Topsail-Paradise +31). Mr. McCurdy’s personal numbers are weaker in Topsail-Paradise than they are provincially (NL +4, Topsail-Paradise -15)

> While the Mr. Davis and the PCs are trailing the Liberal candidate by 21 points in the district, 61% think the province is headed in the right direction.

> 80% of voters think the Liberal Party will win the provincial election, 4 points higher than the province wide average. When it comes to who will win in Topsail-Paradise, expectations are much closer with 44% thinking the Liberal candidate will win compared 38% think the PC candidate will win the district.

> 60% of those we surveyed voted Liberal in the recent federal election, 14% voted NDP and 6% voted Conservative. 68% of those who voted Liberal federally say they will vote for the NL Liberals while 25% will vote for the PCs. The sample sizes for federal NDP and Conservative voters are too small to make confident estimates.

The Upshot

Even Premier Paul Davis is not immune from the mood for change among voters as he trails Liberal candidate Rex Hillier by 21 points in his home district of Topsail-Paradise. 71% of voters in his electoral district think it would be good to have a change in government.

Despite this difficult political environment, Premier Davis is well regarded in his riding. 51% of eligible voters in Topsail-Paradise have a positive impression of him personally, 19-points higher than the provincial average from a survey we did earlier this month. Moreover, most in the district believe the province is headed in the right direction. The results provide additional evidence that the provincial election is about change, not the economy or leadership.

The only upside in these numbers for Mr. Davis is that 46% of eligible voters would consider voting PC, 14 points higher than the provincial average. To win, Davis will need to convert all these potential supporters into actually PC voters while at the same time hoping the NDP can eat into some of the Liberal Party’s support. Not impossible with two weeks remaining in the campaign, but made more difficult by the fact that Mr. Davis is busy campaigning across province.

Download the full results deck here: https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Abacus-Newfoundland-and-Labrador-Political-Survey-Topsail-Paradise-Nov-2015.pdf

Methodology

The random live-interview telephone survey was conducted with 500 eligible voters living in the provincial electoral district of St. John’s West. The survey was completed from November 8 to 12, 2015.

The margin of error for a probability-based random sample of 500 respondents using a probability sample is +/- 4.5%, 19 times out of 20.

The data was statistically weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched population of the electoral district.

Note the small sample sizes when reviewing results in subgroups.

For more information about the poll’s methodology or the results, please contact David Coletto, CEO at david@abacusdata.ca or at 613-232-2806.

Abacus Data Inc.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD.