We completed a national survey of 1,500 Canadian adults from February 4 to 8, 2022.
Here’s a snapshot of our findings.
PUBLIC MOOD & GOVERNMENT APPROVAL
The mood of the country has soured further since our last wave of research roughly a month ago. Today, 34% feel the country is headed in the right direction (down 8 over two months and the lowest since April 2021) while 50% think it’s on the wrong track, up 7.
Approval of the federal government has dropped from 44% a month ago to 38% this month and disapproval has risen from 40% to 45%. Net approval (approve – disapprove) regionally is -4 in BC, -40 in Alberta, -19 in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, +5 in Ontario, -12 in Quebec, and +1 in Atlantic Canada.
LEADER IMPRESSIONS
Justin Trudeau enjoys a positive impression among 36% and negative impressions among 46%, for a net score of – 10 compared to his net score of -2 a month ago. His negatives are the highest we have registered Mr. Trudeau’s favourability is +24 among voters who self describe as left of centre, -14 among those on the centre, and -47 among those on the right.
Today 17% have a positive impression of Interim Conservative leader Candice Bergen while her negatives are at 28% for a net score of -11. Mr. O’Toole finished his time as leader with a net favourability of -25.
Jagmeet Singh enjoys a positive impression among 41% and finds negative impressions among 25% for a net score of +16, similar to our results last month.
In Quebec, BQ Leader Mr. Blanchet is 36% positive and 28% negative for a net score of +8. Mr. Trudeau is -14 in Quebec, Ms. Bergen is -27.
VOTING INTENTION
If an election were held now, the Liberals would win 33% of the vote (their 2021 election result), the Conservatives would win 30% (4-points lower than their share in the election and down two from earlier this month), and the NDP 19% (1-point higher than the 2021 result). The BQ is at 8% nationally while the People’s Party is at 6% and the Greens at 3%.
• BC: Liberals are at 36%, the Conservatives at 30% and the NDP at 24%.
• Alberta: 54% would vote Conservative compared with 20% for the NDP, 14% for the Liberal Party, and 8% for the People’s Party.
• Manitoba and Saskatchewan: The Conservatives lead with 39% followed by the Liberals at 27% and the NDP at 21% and the People’s Party at 11%.
• Ontario: The Liberals have a 4-point lead over the Conservatives (36% to 32%) with the NDP in third at 20%. The People’s Party is polling at 8% in Ontario.
• Quebec: We see the BQ ahead of the Liberals (37% to 32%) with the Conservatives at 16%, the NDP at 12%.
• Atlantic: The Liberals lead with 41% compared with 23% for the NDP, 23% for the Conservatives, and 7% for the People’s Party.
UPSHOT
According to Bruce Anderson:“These numbers will be sobering for the Liberals but well short of warming for the Conservatives. People are frustrated about the pandemic and the sense of unease and friction in the country is naturally going to create expectations of the government to ease tensions and disappointment in the government when that isn’t happening.
There are two separate issues neither of which are positive for the incumbents right now – people want a plan to return to life as normal and feel that the vaccination level is high enough and the Omicron threat low enough that it is time to move in that direction. The government sometimes can sound like it is arguing against that fervent desire, simply by virtue of having to defend the role of science rather than emotion in setting policy.
The second issue is the question of how our Capital could have been blockaded and occupied, and our border passages shut down by protests, without a rapid response to assert law and order and protect the rights of everyone affected by these events. These developments have been startling to many people and naturally make people wonder if all levels of government could have been and should have been better prepared to head off these problems more quickly. One saving grace politically for the Liberals is the fact that so far the Conservatives seem unable to take a consistent and firm position – and offer unsettled voters an alternative that they could gravitate towards.”
According to David Coletto: “As the Freedom Convoy continues to occupy Ottawa and disrupt trade and movement at several border crossings, Canadians are watching and reacting to the events. We see negative pressure on the Prime Minister’s personal numbers as his negative hit a 12-month high. The new Conservative Leader, Ms. Bergen, is largely unknown but starts with a net negative impression – a less than positive introduction to Canadians.
The protests along with rising inflation, a potential war in Europe, and an ongoing pandemic have Canadians on edge. Increasingly, none of the political options on offer are particularly appealing. I suspect the pressure will build on the Prime Minister to be more engaged on these problems. For the Conservatives, tensions within the party and a leadership race will divert its attention from the national crises.
As Canadians react, we are seeing their willingness to consider either party decline, creating an opportunity for the NDP, BQ, People’s Party and the Greens to offer a compelling alternative to the two mainstream parties.”
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from February 4 to 8, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
In the latest round of survey work by Clean Energy Canada and Abacus Data, Canadians expect the next 20 years will see rising investment around the world in renewable and lower carbon forms of energy, and they want Canada to be a vigorous competitor when it comes to winning that investment race.
Key findings include:
Two thirds expect investment in renewable energy sources like sun, wind, tidal and geothermal energy to increase around the world over the next 20 years.
Expectations around natural gas and nuclear energy are more mixed, with slightly more people feeling that investment will increase than foresee a decline.
The plurality expect investment in oil to decline over the next 20 years (48%), while 39% expect it to hold and 13% think it will increase.
Pluralities also forecast increased investment in sustainably produced forest products (48% increase, 7% decrease) and responsibly produced minerals and metals (42% increase, 7% decrease).
When it comes to vehicles, the majority see a decline in investment in gas and diesel vehicles (55% foresee a decrease) and increasing investment in electric vehicles (73% see an increase).
Majorities also see rising investment in the design and manufacture of zero or low emission buildings (62%) and rail and shipping technologies (57%).
Three out of four people believe “Canada must have an ambitious strategy to be strong competitors in a global economy that is striving to reduce carbon emissions,” while 25% believe “The rest of the world economy isn’t going to change very much and we should not change too much or else we will lose jobs and competitiveness.”
In support of a lower carbon competitiveness strategy, massive majorities support the following policy measures:
Job retraining for workers who need to learn new skills (95% support)
Subsidies to help companies purchase new equipment to help them reduce emissions (85%)
Making it easier for companies to access affordable and cleaner forms of energy (92%)
Canadians also have opinions about which sectors Canadian policy should put a priority on. Three quarters or more feel a priority should be placed on renewable energy, bioenergy, forest products, minerals and metals, low carbon buildings, low carbon shipping, and electric vehicles. Two thirds would like to see a priority on on natural gas, and opinions are split on nuclear energy and oil. However, most don’t want to see a priority on gas and diesel manufacturing.
Canadians tend to think we have a good or excellent chance of being competitive in a variety of these sectors over the next 20 years, including renewable energy, sustainable forest products, responsible minerals and metals, low carbon buildings and shipping, electric vehicles, bioenergy, and natural gas. Confidence is lower when it comes to gas and diesel vehicles, oil, and nuclear energy.
UPSHOT
According to Bruce Anderson, Chairman of Abacus Data: “One of the better ways to understand the way Canadians feel about the decarbonization challenge is to explore how they feel the world will be changing and what that should imply in terms of Canadian economic strategy. These numbers make it clear that Canadians have a view about where “the puck is going” and believe that the investments will flow to lower carbon innovations wherever possible. They both have confidence that we can succeed in this evolving global economy and want policy that helps Canada adapt and benefit from these trends, rather than avoid or ignore the trends.”
According toTrevor Melanson, Communications Director of Clean Energy Canada: “Building a sustainable economy isn’t just about producing clean energy. It’s also about the raw and manufactured materials required to build a better world—materials that go into renewable projects, electric vehicles, low-carbon buildings, and much more. The shift that’s happening globally is far bigger than any one sector, and three-quarters of Canadians now believe we must have an ambitious strategy in order to compete.”
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from January 20 to 25th, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
The survey was paid for by Clean Energy Canada.
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
The holiday of love is right around the corner, so what better time to reflect on who we love, why we love them, and (you knew this was coming) whether the pandemic has had an impact.
First, a state of play on where things stand on relationships.
Two-thirds (65%) of Canadians are currently in a relationship and one in five have experienced some sort of major change to their relationship status (married/engaged, divorce/breakup, or starting a new, serious relationship) since the start of the pandemic.
This number jumps to 38%(!) among 18- to 29-year-olds. Which includes 8% who got married or engaged and 21% who started a new serious relationship.
And a more mild but still high 27% among 30-to-44-year-olds, split evenly between separations/divorce, new relationships, and engagement/marriage.
For those of us (still) in relationships, the pandemic has had a net positive impact, or at the very least, no impact at all. 68% love the extra time spent with their partner, while 28% are indifferent, and only 4% hate it. A third of us also say the pandemic has solidified our relationships, but more often than not, we say their hasn’t really been an impact either way.
Unfortunately, those of us looking for love haven’t fared as well during the pandemic. An overwhelming majority (72%) of single Canadians say it is more difficult to date in a pandemic. And, with the playing field having changed, a third have also changed what they are looking for in a relationship/partner.
If you’re thinking, well, ‘online dating is virtual anyways, it can’t be that bad!’ I’m sorry to say that this isn’t the case.
Just over a quarter of Canadians have tried an online dating app or website (Tinder, Bumble, Hinge, Match, The League, eHarmony etc.). For each of these services, there are just as many unhappy users, as happy users (50% satisfied with their experience, 50% were not).
Nothing beats a mutual connection (likely much more difficult these days)- three in four who’ve been set up with a mutual connection are satisfied with the experience.
So, for those of us who’ve found it, and those of us yet to find it, what are we all looking for? What do we all value in relationships? Well, among the list of traits put forward, two clear lists can be made; what’s important, and what’s… not as important.
Emotional compatibility, personal interests compatibility, life priorities/pace compatibility, and physical attraction are in the first category, the most sought after traits for a relationship. They are, more often than not, placed in the top 4 most important traits for a relationship.
Family compatibility, religious/spirituality compatibility, sexual compatibility, and financial compatibility are on the second list and are considered ‘not as important’ things.
For the most part, whether we are in a relationship or not, we are all looking for the same things. That said, those of us in relationships place sexual compatibility a little bit higher, while single Canadians place a bit more importance on personal interest compatibility.
The big differences, however, are between men and women. If you were looking to find something the pandemic hasn’t changed- it seems like quintessential gender stereotypes are on that list. Women are much more likely to place importance on emotional compatibility (65% women vs 57% men) and life priorities/pace compatibility (59% women vs 44% men), whereas men are much more likely to place physical attraction (39% women vs 50% men), and sexual compatibility (22% women vs 36% men) in their top 3.
All that said, there are a few final preferences we wanted to know about, including some that are surprising.
After seeing a few articles on the rise of non-monogamous relationships, we wanted to gauge reactions to the idea. turns out, a quarter of Canadians are at least open to a non-monogamous relationship. This jumps to one in three among single Canadians.
But, what about prenups? These have been on the rise in North America, but how many Canadians would consider one? Well, Just over half of Canadians are open to a prenup or already have one. Again, more common among those of us who are single.
Finally, to end this piece on a high note, do we believe in true love? For the most part, yes! Half of Canadians say yes, they believe in finding ‘the one’, while 32% say maybe, and 13% say not at all. This time, it’s slightly higher among those already in a relationship.
THE UPSHOT
“All things considered, it seems love is still in the air. Nearly all of us might believe in finding the one, with the possibility of a few caveats (prenups and non-monogamy) along the way. And for the most part, we have some level of consensus that ‘the one’ means emotional compatibility (though if it’s men you are interested in, just know physical attraction and sexual compatibility are closer to the top of their list).
Those of us in relationships have fared better over the last couple years- enjoying the extra time spent with partners. While those of us who are still single have had a more difficult time dating during the pandemic, like most of these conclusions, there is hope that as we ease out of the pandemic, the dating scene will become easier.”
METHODOLOGY
This survey was conducted with n=2,100 from January 18th to 20th, 2022. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.14%, 19 times out of 20.
The survey was conducted using a random sample of panelists invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The data was weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
Perry Tsergas and I are friends and business partners. We also share an office space in downtown Ottawa. And very often we get fascinated by things happening around us and often get to work together on some really interesting projects.
As two Ottawa-based businesses (Abacus Data & spark*advocacy) with most of our team living in the city, our lives, like many in Ottawa, have been impacted by the demonstrators that have occupied downtown Ottawa for the past week.
Given that our city is the epicentre of the Freedom Convoy demonstrations, we wanted to understand what Ottawa residents were feeling, whether they supported the Freedom Convoy, and how they felt about the way leaders have handled things, including the Ottawa Police Service.
This survey was conducted with a representative sample of 500 Ottawa residents from February 4 to 7, 2022. A comparable random survey of the same size would have a margin of error of + 4.4%, 19 times out of 20.
Here is what we found:
1 IN 5 SAY THEY HAVE BEEN PERSONALLY IMPACTED BY THE CONVOY
About 20% of Ottawa residents say they have been either impacted a lot or quite a bit by the protests. Another 39% say they have been impacted only a little while the same proportion says they have not been impacted at all.
Those living in central Ottawa are, not surprisingly, the most likely to say they have been impacted by the Freedom Convoy.
TWO-THIRDS ARE OPPOSED TO THE CONVOY. 22% SUPPORT IT.
A clear majority of Ottawa residents oppose the Freedom Convoy and their demonstrations in the city. In fact, those who strongly oppose the protest at almost four times as large as those who strongly support it.
Opposition crosses all regions of the city and across different federal party supporters. Of note, those under 45 are almost twice as likely to support the convoy as those over 45.
ALMOST 9 IN 10 THINK THE PROTESTORS HAVE HAD AN OPPORTUNITY TO MAKE THEIR POINT AND SHOULD LEAVE TOWN
This view is shared across demographic, regional, and political groups. Even 4 in 10 of those who support the convoy say it’s time for them to leave the city.
MANY FEEL UNHAPPY WITH HOW LEADERS AND THE POLICE HAVE HANDLED THE DEMONSTRATION
When asked to rate how well political leaders and the Ottawa Police Service have handled the convoy, many give negative reviews. However, in most cases, a majority give each leader or organization good or acceptable grades on their performance handing the convoy.
Opinions about the Ottawa Police Service are the most polarized with 30% describing its performance as well while 40% saying they have handled things poorly.
Views of the Prime Minister are the most negative, largely because both supporters and opponents of the convoy feel he has handled it poorly. 45% in Ottawa feel that Premier Doug Ford has handled things poorly as do 38% who feel the same way about Mayor Jim Watson.
Those who support the convoy are far more likely to think the Ottawa Police Service has handled the demonstrations well. Not surprisingly, they are also the most likely to feel the Prime Minister has handled things poorly.
Among the 67% of residents who oppose the convoy, 53% think the Ottawa Police Service has handled things poorly or very poorly.
VIEWS ON DEALING WITH THE OCCUPATION
Most Ottawa residents (64%) agree that “it is possible to peacefully evict the demonstrators from downtown Ottawa by ticketing and towing vehicles and enforcing noise bylaws”. 36% disagree.
Views are pretty consistent across subgroups. Half of those who support the convoy agree with this statement.
At the same time, less than half think the Ottawa Police Service has done everything it can to deal with the demonstration. 43% agree while 57% disagree. Those who support the convoy are far more likely to think the OPS has done everything it can while only 31% of opponents of the convoy feel that way.
SHOULD TRUDEAU & FORD MEET WITH CONVOY LEADERS?
Almost half of Ottawa residents think the Prime Minister and Premier should meet with the convoy leaders. But among those opposed to the protest, 37% think they should meet while 45% don’t believe they should.
Among federal Liberal supporters, views are split – 42% think the PM and Premier should meet with the convoy leaders while 44% think they shouldn’t. Half of the Conservative voters feel like they should while 1 in 4 think they shouldn’t.
TWO-THIRDS WANT COVID RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE BECAUSE OF CONCERNS ABOUT THE HEALTHCARE SYSTEM
Respondents were asked which of two statements comes closest to their views.
a.We can’t let our healthcare system get overwhelmed we need to keep restrictions in place to protect public health.
b. We need to learn to live with COVID and we should remove all mandates and restrictions, even if our healthcare system is overwhelmed
By a 2 to 1 margin, Ottawa residents were more likely to believe COVID restrictions should be kept in place to prevent the healthcare system from getting overwhelmed.
This view was shared by a majority across both agree groups, across all regions of the city, and among Liberal, Conservative, and NDP voters in Ottawa.
30% of those who support the convoy also believe this compared with 80% who oppose the convoy.
Finally, when asked whether they support the demonstrators’ calls to end all public health measures and restrictions related to COVID-19, 34% support it while a clear majority, 66% are opposed.
A majority in all age groups and across the political spectrum oppose an end to all public health measures and restrictions related to COVID-19
According to David Coletto: “These results give us a snapshot of how those living in Ottawa feel about the Freedom Convoy that has occupied the city’s downtown for the past week. It shows that most oppose the convoy, most continue to support public health measures and restrictions, and the vast majority think the protestors have had a chance to voice their opposition to mandates and restrictions and should leave the city.
Dealing with this crisis has been challenging and the community’s reaction to how leaders have handled it have been mixed. Many feel that no one has handled the demonstrations well, including the police, the Mayor, the Premier, and the Prime Minister. However, many also think that those in charge have done as well as can be expected, given the circumstances.
It is telling that the police get the highest grades from those who support the protest while a majority of those opposed to them think the police service has handled things poorly.
For Prime Minister Trudeau and Premier Ford, these numbers offer little relief as majorities on both sides think they haven’t handled things well.
I suspect that if the convoy continues, pressure will continue to build on all three levels of government to act, and support for the convoy’s message will get overshadowed by the disruption it is causing to not only people living in Ottawa but Canada’s international reputation.”
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted online with 500 Ottawa residents from February 4 to 7, 2022. A random sample of panelist were invited to complete the survey.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 4.38%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ottawa’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
Is anyone ready for some good news? We’ve been in field with a lot of data on all things pandemic: COVID-19 worries, impressions on the convoy in Ottawa, the shortage economy, and more. But what about some numbers that bring some positivity to the conversation?
Aside from tracking worry and concern, over the last couple months we’ve also be in field asking parents about their willingness to vaccinate their children. Though there was initially little change in willingness to vaccine (and even a slight decline from early to mid-December), we have now seen a first glimpse at increasing acceptance.
In mid-December and mid-January we asked parents the following questions:
“How are you thinking about getting your kid(s), who are in the age group of 12-17, vaccinated against COVID-19?”
And
“How are you thinking about getting your kid(s), who are in the age group of 5-11, vaccinated against COVID-19?”
Among both groups, acceptance has risen.
First up are parents of 12-17 year-olds, the age group that’s been eligible for their doses for several months. Between mid-December and mid-January we have seen a notable rise in the acceptance of vaccines for children 12-17 years old. Now, 85% of parents of this age group say their child(ren) has received at least one shot, or they will as soon as it’s available. This is a 10-point increase from when we were in field mid-December.
Most of this movement seems to come from hesitant/undecided parents who seem to be more open to the idea. The number of parents who are ‘refusers’ (say they will not be getting their child(ren) 12-17 vaccinated) remains consistent, around 10%.
Still, there is greater hesitancy around vaccinating 5-11 year-old. However, acceptance has grown in this age group as well. Since mid-December we’ve seen a 5-point increase among parents of this age group either saying their child(ren) have had one shot, or they will as soon as its available.
Again, movement is mainly from a decline in parents who are hesitant, as those in the ‘refuser’ group remain just over 10%.
THE UPSHOT
According to Oksana Kishchuk:
“At a time where much of the news coverage around the pandemic has a negative cast it is refreshing to see that some datapoints are trending in the right direction. Though there is still work to be done, moving more parents from hesitant to acceptance and acceptance into vaccinated, these numbers provide some hope that we are slowly on our way out of this pandemic. We will continue to track these numbers and hope that acceptance among parents reaches the acceptance levels we’ve seen among adults.”
METHODOLOGY
This survey was conducted in our omnibus survey from January 18th to 20th, 2022. The sample of parents of children 12-17 was n=276. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 5.9%, 19 times out of 20. The sample of parents of children under 12 was n=396. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 4.92%, 19 times out of 20.
The survey was conducted using a random sample of panelists invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The data was weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
In the latest round of survey work by Clean Energy Canada and Abacus Data, for every person who thinks oil and gas will be very important for Canada’s economy in 10 years, twice as many feel that way about clean energy.
The results paint a picture of a population that believes oil and gas matter to today’s economy, but a striking number also see the clean energy sector as highly important. What’s more, the public tends to believe that clean energy will become more important over time, while oil and gas will recede in importance.
Key findings include:
Across the country, roughly equal numbers say the oil and gas sector and the clean energy sector are important to the national economy. In Alberta, the perception is that oil and gas is more important to the national economy than clean energy. In the rest of the country, the opposite is true.
In every part of the country but the Prairies, more people think clean energy is important to their provincial economy than oil and gas.
When asked about the importance of each of these sectors to the Canadian economy 10 years from now, 28% say that oil and gas will be very important, while 59% say the same thing about the clean energy sector. There has been a striking increase since November, 2020 in the proportion of Canadians who believe clean energy will be important to Canada’s economy in the future.
While public opinion is somewhat split on whether the federal government and provincial governments are doing the right amount to help shift the country towards a cleaner economy, there are roughly three Canadians who would like to see more action in this direction for every one who would like to see less. Among Albertans and Conservative voters, only about a third think the government of Canada is doing too much.
The same is true when it comes to feelings about provincial governments. Again, it is interesting to note that 46% think the Alberta government is not doing enough while 11% think it is doing too much.
CANADA’S CLIMATE TARGET
When told that Canada’s target to reduce emissions is 40-45% below the 2005 level, by the year 2030, 29% say they feel that target is too ambitious, and 21% say it is not ambitious enough – with the plurality saying it is about the right level of ambition. In May of 2021, 33% felt that target was too ambitious, and 15% thought it was not ambitious enough.
In Alberta, 45% say the target is too ambitious, while a slim majority say it is about right (37%) or not ambitous enough (19%). Across generations, feelings about the target are largely similar with pluralities or majorities saying the target is about right. Among Conservative voters, there is a split, with 51% saying the target is too ambitious.
Two out of three people believe that if Canada were to meet that target, “our economy will become stronger and more competitive along the way,” while only a third (32%) believe we will become weaker and less competitive. A majority of Albertans also believe the Canadian economy would become stronger and more competitive.
UPSHOT
According to Bruce Anderson, Chairman of Abacus Data: “Canadians see the shift towards cleaner economies as a global trend and one that is gathering momentum and creating economic opportunity along the way. While there are regional and partisan differences that are worth noting there is probably more consensus on the direction Canada should pursue than some might expect. The question for most people is not whether the shift to a cleaner economy is inevitable or desirable but how well Canada will tack with this trend and take advantage of it rather than resist it.”
According toTrevor Melanson, Communications Director of Clean Energy Canada: “Canadians are witnessing governments, major automakers, and big corporations compete on the world stage as they race to secure market share in the growing clean energy sector. We asked these same questions in 2020, and in just 14 months, the number of Canadians who said the clean energy sector would be very important in 10 years shot up 19 points. Building Canada’s clean economy has gone from being from a nice idea to a necessary reality.”
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from January 20 to 25th, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
Two out of three (68%) interviewed in our latest nationwide poll feel they have “very little in common with how the protestors in Ottawa see things”, while 32% say they “have a lot in common.”
Those who are more likely to feel aligned with the protestors are People’s Party voters (82%), Green Party voters (57%), and Conservative Party voters (46%). Large majorities of Liberal (75%), NDP (77%), and BQ (81%) voters say they have little in common with the protestors.
More people felt that the protest came off as “offensive and inappropriate” (57%) than believe it was “respectful and appropriate”. Again Conservative supporters were divided on this question, with 45% saying it was offensive and inappropriate. People’s Party supporters were almost unanimous (93%) in feeling it was respectful and appropriate.
None of the federal leaders got great reviews from the public in terms of how they handled the convoy situation, but Erin O’Toole was given the worst marks, with 59% finding his approach lacking, compared to 53% for Justin Trudeau, and 45% for Jagmeet Singh.
UPSHOT
According to Bruce Anderson: “I think these numbers reflect a combination of things – clearly a good number of people share frustration with the seemingly endless pandemic and the measures that are making life uncomfortable, and some find themselves aligned with this part of the protestors’ message. At the same time, a substantial majority don’t feel they can identify with everything about the protest and many were turned off by the methods and messages that they observed from the convoy, once it arrived in Ottawa. Dealing with the convoy was not a winning situation for any party leader, but Erin O’Toole left more people disappointed than his rivals.”
According to David Coletto: “Public reaction and sympathy to the convoy and demonstration in Ottawa and across the country appear divisive and correlated to one’s partisan orientation – although not perfectly. People’s, Green, and Conservative party supporters are more sympathetic and identify with those occupying downtown Ottawa than others. And while a sizeable minority feels the demonstration has been largely respectful, public reaction is highly fluid and could shift as the convoy continues to occupy downtown Ottawa and disrupt traffic at the Canada-US border.
The reaction is more likely the result of growing impatience with the pandemic and disruptions it has had on people’s lives. The 32/68 divide is a good proxy for where Canadians stand on many aspects of the pandemic debate, including vaccine mandates, lockdowns, and on-going restrictions.
Politically, there appear to be no real winners. Erin O’Toole may have lost his job because of the division over the convoy within his party, while Prime Minister Trudeau finds widespread dissatisfaction with his handling of the issue. If anything, the events of the past week just add to the collective frustrations Canadians are feeling overall. “
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 1,410 Canadian adults from January 31 to February 2, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.7%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
As a public opinion and social researcher, I was of course intrigued.
And so, at the beginning of this year, I conducted a large national survey of Canadian adults (n=2,210) and explored several aspects of the economic and social experiences that the shortage economy may be having on Canadians.
Specifically, I wanted to try and answer two questions. How are Canadians experiencing the shortage economy and what does it mean for leaders?
This data is also part of a webinar I’m delivering with TEC Canada later today.
In my view, supply chain disruptions, empty shelves, and rising prices are a core part of the shortage economy. However, we also have to consider the impact of labour shortages, worker fatigue and burnout, and how all these factors are impacting both consumers and citizens (from a political perspective).
The implications of this research are pretty clear.
Obviously, we will need to start learning to do more with less.
But we need to also recognize that employees and workers are empowered (even if they don’t know it yet) and are coming to work with a different frame of mind. Many are tired, burned out, and looking for real meaning in their work.
The customer experience has also changed. Labour and product shortages mean wait times are longer and full of friction than many have come to expect. The rapid shift to e-commerce has raised the bar to a standard that many brick-and-mortar retailers and service providers are having a challenge matching.
We are moving more sharply into the politics of inflation – where public concerns focusing on the cost of living and the ability of political leaders to deliver relief are juxtaposed with budget deficits and fears of stoking inflation even more.
Overall, this is a very challenging environment to lead.
SHORTAGE ECONOMY: THE LABOUR MARKET
Although the “Great Resignation” took hold in the United States, evidence suggests the same phenomenon has not yet happened in Canada.
Labour participation rates rebounded far quicker in Canada and our labour market tightness (number of job vacancies per job seeker) is nowhere near where the United States is.
Moreover, Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey finds that the number of Canadians leaving their jobs voluntarily and because they are dissatisfied with their work, is much lower than it was at the start of the pandemic. It’s clear we aren’t seeing a “Great Resignation” in Canada.
In my survey, 18% of employed Canadians said they changed jobs in the past 12 months, including 9% who said they quit a job even when they didn’t have another one lined up. This behaviour was much more common among those under 45 – with 16% of 18 to 30-year-olds saying they quit without another gig ready.
But more interesting in my data is the reasonwhy people changed their jobs. Going beyond “dissatisfaction” as the Statistics Canada survey measures, I found that the top reason for job changers was they “needed a change – the work they were doing wasn’t interesting”. More than 60% of job changers cited this as a reason and it was the top reason for workers over and under 45 years old.
Younger job changers were more likely to report being offered more money – logical given younger workers are more likely to seek higher wages and promotions. But they were also more likely to report wanting more flexibility. Six in ten job changers under 45 reported the desire for more flexibility as a reason why they changed jobs. This is not new, but a preference the pandemic has made more possible than ever.
But it’s not just job switchers or a tight labour market that is impacting productivity and workplace culture. Millions of Canadians are feeling burned-out.
In my survey, 1 in 3 Canadians felt they were currently feeling burned out, including 44% of those under 45. To add some context, that’s 10 million or so people feeling burned out, just after the holiday season when many had the opportunity to rest and recharge.
What does burnout look like? Most working Canadians agree that “there are days when I feel tired before I arrive at work” and half of those under 45 agree “it happens more and more often that I talk about my work in a negative way.”
If we haven’t yet seen a Great Resignation in Canada, these numbers suggest it could still come.
SHORTAGE ECONOMY: GETTING WHAT WE WANT AND NEED AND PAYING MORE FOR IT
We all know that the pandemic severely disrupted supply chains and Omicron has made things even worse. Everyone has an anecdote of how long it’s taken to get a new fridge, car, or even hire someone to renovate their home. These experiences are widespread, according to my survey.
Almost half of Canadians say they couldn’t get a product they wanted in the past 12 months because of a shortage or that product being temporarily unavailable.
Furthermore, 84% say this experience has been happening more often than usual.
But what are Canadian consumers doing when they face an empty shelf or back-ordered product? It varies quite a bit. When asked what they did the last time they couldn’t get a product they wanted, 35% bought a different brand of the same product, 39% ordered the product and waited, while 27% didn’t buy the product at all. In all three, the consumer experience was disrupted.
While this presents itself as an opportunity for new brands to connect with consumers, it also forced consumers to wait, something they don’t appreciate all that much and likely left them feeling dissatisfied with the brand and retailer. For others, they simply didn’t buy the product, perhaps spending that money on something else.
Disruptions like these were widespread and occurred across both product categories and services.
The chart below reports the estimated number of Canadian consumers (18+) who report being impacted by supply shortages. Millions of Canadians either experienced delays or didn’t get what they wanted at all when it came to furniture, major home appliances, meat products, lumber, or a new car. As someone in the market for a new road bike, I empathize with the 1.4 million Canadians who could not get that new bike they wanted thanks to a global bike component and parts shortage.
But the lack of supply didn’t just leave consumers frustrated, it also caused prices to rise in many consumer product categories. The cost of living is going up at its fastest pace in three decades, but more important than actual increases are the perceptions that prices are rising.
Most Canadians believe the price for many food products, gas, housing, consumer products, and even personal hygiene products are rising. Many also think the price they are paying for services such as the trades, financial services, and professional services are also increasing.
While people believe prices are rising quickly, few report their household income rising. Only 1 in 4 Canadians say their household income has increased in the past year, while a similar proportion feel their incomes have actually decreased.
The shortage economy in Canada has left many consumers dissatisfied – either because they couldn’t get a product or service they wanted or because they are now paying more for less.
THE DEATH OF CUSTOMER SERVICE?
But interestingly, the impact on the perceived quality of customer service has not been overly negative for most people.
I asked respondents: “Compared with a few years ago, has the overall customer service you’ve received from the following types of organizations improved, worsened, or stayed the same?”
For the most part, Canadians feel that service quality has stayed about the same. Service evaluations of airlines, government departments, and restaurants are worst, while many people feel that the experience online or through e-commerce has improved.
There’s a lot to unpack in these numbers but for me what stands out is that businesses who have faced labour shortages and severe changes to the overall experience (think restaurants and airlines) are seen as weaker while e-commerce and online retailers have been able to improve on the experience overall. This means that the acceleration in e-commerce use over the course of the pandemic may stick around, as consumers met an improving experience while brick-and-mortar retailers were static and constrained by capacity restrictions, social distancing, and other COVID-created challenges.
THE SHORTAGE ECONOMY: CAN GOVERNMENTS DO ANYTHING?
The bad news, beyond the health, social, and economic disruptions caused by the pandemic, is that citizens believe governments can do something to help deal with inflation, labour shortages, and even supply chain disruptions. Whether or not those expectations are misplaced, the perception that government intervention can help solve these issues means that governments and political leaders need to be seen caring about these issues and doing something about them.
Take the federal government for example. When asked how well the federal government is doing dealing with inflation, labour shortages, product shortages, and supply chain disruptions, views are quite mixed. The federal government gets higher negative evaluations on inflation (59%) than the others. But in no area do more than 17% feel the federal government is doing an excellent or good job.
When it comes to inflation specifically, do Canadians think the federal government decisions impact inflation as the Conservative opposition has been claiming?
Well, most do. When asked to choose between two statements, 58% felt federal government decisions have had a big impact on inflation in Canada while 42% felt inflation “is being caused by global factors outside the control of the federal government.” In reality, I assume both could be true but I was interested to see where the public was more likely to fall.
And while supporters of the opposition parties are more likely to think the federal government did have a big impact on inflation, 4 in 10 Liberal voters feel the same way, suggesting this view isn’t entirely caused by partisanship.
So, if most think the federal government had a big impact on inflation, do people think they have helped or hurt the situation? Most (54%) think federal government decisions have made inflation worse compared with 11% who think its decisions have made inflation better.
In total then, 41% of Canadians believe the federal government has had a big impact on inflation and has made it worse. More troubling for the Trudeau government in all of this – 17% of these folks voted Liberal in 2021 and represent 7% of the electorate.
So what’s the best policy? I’ll leave that to the experts. But from the public’s perspective, when asked whether increased prices for goods and services or increased interest rates would be worse, increased prices won by a long shot. 72% said increased prices would be worse for them personally compared with 17% who felt increased interest rates would be less desirable. Those who own a home and those with higher incomes were slightly more likely to fear interest rate hikes, but even among those groups, price increases were perceived to be the greater pain point.
THE UPSHOT
Abacus Data CEO, David Coletto: The shortage economy is clearly here. Labour shortages, burned-out workers, and supply chain disruptions are part of the everyday experience for Canadians. Millions haven’t been able to buy the bike, fridge, or new sofa they wanted or needed and many feel the customer service they’ve received from their favourite restaurant, airline, or retailer has gotten worse.
How do leaders respond to this new economic and consumer/citizen opinion environment?
First, I think we all need to lead with compassion and engagement. While there is no Great Resignation in Canada, employees and workers are more powerful than they have been in a long time. More and more, especially younger workers, are looking to be fulfilled at work. They want their work to mean something. They want or even demand employers who care, listen, and respond compassionately. Engage more regularly with your teams and workforce. Measure their attitudes and perceptions and demonstrate you’re listening.
Second, I think all businesses – whether in retail, food service, or even professional or financial services – need to approach customer service with a hospitality mindset. Take a page from a legend, restauranteur Danny Meyer, and empower your teams to deliver enlightened hospitality to your clients, suppliers, and stakeholders. Your organization will be facing consumers, customers, and clients who will be asked to pay more and often for less. Improving the experience is critical. To do so, you have to understand what they want, what they expect, and how best to deliver value in a shortage economy.
Finally, for policymakers and political leaders – ignoring a problem because your choices had very little impact on the problem is not good enough. The public expects empathy and responsiveness from our government and elected representatives. If people say the cost of living is a real problem, don’t explain it away. Respond with something. For the Trudeau government, most already feel it can impact inflation and almost half think it has made things worse. If you continue to ignore or ineffectively respond to what people are feeling, they will look for someone else who doesn’t.
Don’t forget to tune into my TEC Canada webinar on this subject today or reach out if you have any questions or would like to connect.
METHODOLOGY
The survey data used in this study is from a national online survey of 2,210 Canadian adults from January 7 to 12, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
Ontario is likely heading to the polls in early June 2022 and over the next months, our team will track public opinion and preferences in the lead-up to the campaign.
This is part of our team’s expansion in Toronto. We have opened a new office in downtown Toronto and will be focusing on issues that matter to people living in the GTA and across the province.
Last week we completed a national survey that included an oversample of 1,210 respondents living in Ontario.
Here’s what we found:
TOP PROVINCIAL ISSUES: COVID, INFLATION & HEALTH CARE
When asked to rank the top three issues facing the province from a long list, the COVID-19 pandemic, the rising cost of living and the health care system were in the top 3. Housing affordability and climate change/the environment rounded out the top 5.
Despite severe labour shortages in some sectors, only 9% put it in their top issue. The provincial deficit is a top issue for 11% while education reaches 12%. For 7% the c
Older Ontarians are more likely to rank the pandemic, the health care system and the deficit than younger ones. Millennials are more concerned about the cost of childcare, racism and inequality, and housing affordability than older Ontarians.
Interestingly, there’s almost no difference on issue priority when comparing those living in the GTA and those in the rest of the province. COVID, inflation, and healthcare top the list for both groups.
For PC Party supporters, the top issues in the province are the same – pandemic, inflation, healthcare, housing affordability and economic growth – but PC supporters are more likely to rate economic growth and the budget deficit as a top issue than other Ontarians and less likely to prioritize climate change, healthcare, and racism/inequality.
THE ELECTORATE’S MOOD: DESIRE FOR CHANGE
At the start of 2022, 72% of Ontarians feel it is either definitely time for a change in government or it would be nice to have change, but it’s not important to them. In contrast, 28% would like to see the Ford PCs re-elected in the spring.
Most important, 50% definitely want to see a change in government.
To put these numbers in context, the desire for change in the week before the 2018 Ontario election was significantly higher. At that time, 63% definitely wanted a change in government and only 10% definitely wanted to see Kathleen Wynne and the Ontario Liberal’s re-elected.
Moreover, these numbers in Ontario looks similar to the desire for change we saw nationally in the final weekend of the 2021 federal election. At that time, 50% definitely wanted to see a change in government while 19% definitely wanted the federal Liberals re-elected.
FORD GOVERNMENT PERFORMANCE
What might be driving this desire for change? For one, on the issues that matter most to Ontarians, the Ford government’s performance is perceived to be fairly negative but not enough to be a severe hurdle to re-election.
Take the pandemic for example. This is a top issue to 60% of the electorate and residents are quite divided on the provincial government’s performance. 50% think the Premier and his government have done a poor or very poor job. In contrast, 22% think it has been positive while 25% describe the performance as acceptable.
We see similar numbers for how the government has managed the province’s health care system (good 16%, acceptable 25%, poor 54%) and how it’s dealt with climate change and the environment (14% good, 29% acceptable, 43% poor).
But on two key pocketbook issues that helped the PCs win in 2018, the government’s performance is more negative: the rising cost of living and housing affordability. On both of these issues about 2 in 3 think the government has performed poorly while less than 10% think it has done a good job.
On less salient issues, the government gets more positive marks for its handling of crime/public safety, public transportation, racism/inequality, and economic growth. It’s weaker on childcare, addressing labour shortages, and managing the education system.
PARTY LEADER IMPRESSIONS
Before asking people for their impression of the four main political party leaders, we asked how well people think they know them.
Not surprising, most feel they know Premier Doug Ford at least pretty well (82%) with 17% saying they don’t know him much or well.
In contrast, NDP and Official Opposition leader Andrea Horwath is known well by 60% of respondents. 40% say they don’t know her that well – this despite being NDP leader for 13 years and leader of the opposition for almost 4.
Ontario Liberal leader Steven Del Duca is much less well-known know with only 38% saying they know him well and 1 in 4 saying they don’t know him much at all.
Green leader Mike Schreiner is the least well-known of the four main party leaders.
When asked how they feel about the same leaders, none have particularly good images. One in three have a positive impression of Doug Ford and Andrea Horwath while 20% have a positive view of Steven Del Duca. Only 14% view Mike Schreiner positively.
Overall, Doug Ford’s net score is -14, Andrea Horwath’s is +2, Steven Del Ducca’s is -6 while Mike Schreiner’s is -2.
For Doug Ford, his current image is similar to what it was in April 2021 – the last time we asked about him in our public surveys.
Ford’s personal numbers are fairly consistent across the province.
Not surprisingly, those on the left are far less likely to view the Premier positively than those on the right.
But noteworthy, about 1 in 3 of those who self-identify being on the right say they have a negative view of the Premier. A potential liability as the PCs try to keep the conservative coalition united in the PC Party – especially as two parties on the right try to gain traction.
PROVINCIAL VOTE INTENTION
If a provincial election was held today, the PCs would very likely win with 37% of the popular vote. The Ontario Liberals and NDP are in a race for second with the Liberals slightly ahead of the NDP.
Since our last survey in April 2021, when the public reacted quite negatively to new COVID restrictions announced, the PCs are up 3, the Liberals down 7, and the NDP marginally up 2.
Compared with the 2018 provincial election, the PCs are down 3, the Liberals up 8, and the NDP down 9.
Regionally, PC support is fairly consistent across the province. The Liberals have more support in the GTA and Toronto than in other regions. NDP support is fairly consistent across the province.
There is a lot of variation by age. PC support is much higher among those aged 45 and older than those under 45. In fact, at 50%, its support among those 60+ is more than double its support among 18 to 29-year-olds. In an environment where younger electors are less likely to turn out, this is a definite advantage for Doug Ford and the PCs.
It’s also worth noting that educational attainment doesn’t appear to be a be factor influencing vote intention unlike federally or in other jurisdictions. Party vote shares are fairly consistent across educational groups.
Finally, when we look at provincial vote intentions by reported federal vote in the 2021 Canadian election, we find alignment between Conservative and NDP supporters and their provincial counterparts. Over 80% of federal Conservative and NDP voters say they will vote for the equivalent provincially.
But among federal Liberal supporters, only 2 in 3 say they will vote for the provincial Liberal party with 16% saying they will vote PC and another 16% preferring the Ontario NDP.
If the PCs were to lose those federal Liberal voters and not gain anywhere else, the PCs would lose 6-points and drop down to 31% overall. If the Ontario Liberals gain that 6-points, they would jump into the lead and end with 34% of the popular vote.
These federal Liberal/provincial PC switchers are going to be critical to the PC re-election, especially if they lose voters to the new right-wing parties.
Speaking of which, among federal People’s Party voters, 24% say they would vote PC while more than half would vote for another party. If the PCs can gain even another quarter of these voters, that only would result in an additional 1% vote share gain.
In other words, leakage to the right is a problem but if the PCs lose federal Liberal votes, the damage could be more severe.
UPSHOT
According to David Coletto: “The PCs start 2022 with the advantage but not one that is not insurmountable. There is widespread dissatisfaction with the Ford government and Premier Ford himself, although not to the extent it was prior to the pandemic. If an election was held today, the PCs would likely win thanks to a divided opposition and strength in all parts of the province. Housing affordability and inflation are two areas where the provincial government performs worst and they become liabilities for the PCs if they don’t have compelling solutions in the lead up to the election.
For the opposition parties, the Liberals are well positioned to become to natural alternative to the PCs again but they have a largely unknown leader in Steven Del Duca. If he can introduce himself positively to Ontarians, the Liberals could make big gains and challenge the Conservatives in the Greater Toronto Area. For the NDP, despite the breakthrough in 2018, Andrea Horwath remains unknown and poorly defined to millions of Ontarians and the party has fallen behind the NDP.
In order to defeat the PCs, the opposition parties will need to do two things. First, increase the desire for change in the province and two consolidate support more effectively around one alternative. Right now, the electorate is both insufficiently angry at the Ford PCs and not excited about any of the alternatives. Ford’s surest path to re-election is to not make waves, reinforce his right flank while hoping the divided centre-left continues
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 1,210 Ontario residents over 18 from January 7 to 12, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.9%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations and leaders respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
We completed a national survey of 2,200 Canadian adults from January 7 to 12, 2022.
Here’s a snapshot of our findings.
PUBLIC MOOD & GOVERNMENT APPROVAL
Since early December, the mood of the country has soured as Omicron has spread and anxiety about the pandemic has increased. Today, 37% feel the country is headed in the right direction (down 5 from early December) while 47% think it’s on the wrong track, up 4. Views on the direction of the world and the United States have also taken a negative turn.
The overall shift in mood is mirrored by rising anxiety about the pandemic. Today 47% say they have become more worried about the pandemic over the past few days – an increase of 3-points since the end of November and a 23-point since October. 1 in 3 Canadians believes that the worst of the pandemic is still to come, up 5 since late November.
Despite this shift in mood, impressions of the federal government are unchanged from late November.
Slightly more approve (44%) than disapprove (40%) of the federal government, almost exactly the same levels as at the end of November. The Trudeau government’s net approval (approve – disapprove) regionally is -5 in BC, -24 in Alberta, -4 in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, +5 in Ontario, +19 in Quebec, and +18 in Atlantic Canada.
LEADER IMPRESSIONS
Justin Trudeau enjoys a positive impression among 40% and negative impressions among 42%, for a net score of -2. This is largely unchanged from the end of November.
Today 21% have a positive impression of the Conservative leader Erin O’Toole while his negatives are at 46% for a net score of -25. A slight worsening since November and the highest negatives we’ve recorded for him.
Jagmeet Singh enjoys a positive impression among 40% and finds negative impressions among 23% for a net score of +17, also similar to our results in November but his positives are down 6 points the election in September.
In Quebec, BQ Leader Mr. Blanchet is 38% positive and 24% negative for a net score of +14. Mr. Trudeau is +11 and Mr. O’Toole is -29 in Quebec.
VOTING INTENTION
If an election were held now, the Liberals would win 32% of the vote (in line with the 2021 election share and unchanged from November 2021), the Conservatives would win 30% (4-points lower than their share in the election and unchanged from November) and the NDP 19% (1-point higher). The BQ is at 8% nationally while the People’s Party is at 7% and the Greens at 3%.
• BC: a three-way race with the NDP at 33%, Liberals at 32%, and the Conservatives at 27%.
• Alberta: 54% would vote Conservative compared with 20% for the NDP, 17% for the Liberal Party, and 6% for the People’s Party.
• Manitoba and Saskatchewan: The Conservatives lead with 38% followed by the Liberal at 27% and the NDP at 21%.
• Ontario: The Liberals have a 3-point lead over the Conservatives (37% to 34%) with the NDP in third at 19%. The People’s Party is polling at 7% in Ontario.
• Quebec: We see the BQ slightly ahead of the Liberals (35% to 32%) with the Conservatives at 13%, the NDP at 9%, and the People’s Party at 8%.
• Atlantic: The Liberals lead by 7 with 33% compared with 26% for the NDP, 25% for the Conservatives, and 10% for the People’s Party.
UPSHOT
According to Bruce Anderson: “It’s January, there’s been catastrophic floods in BC, rising inflation, a raging new Covid variant, and more turmoil around schools and other lockdown measures, affecting businesses and daily lives of millions. Canadians, given all of that, seem pretty stoic for the moment – certainly, the mix of challenges is not taking a toll on support levels for the federal government or showing up as an opportunity for other parties, with the possible exception of the Peoples Party, as anti-vax sentiment becomes more prominent and polarizing. Canadians seem to be inclined to ignore most of what’s happening in politics right now, and work to get through what continues to be an unprecedented number of challenges for many people, in their everyday lives.”
According to David Coletto: “
Very little has changed since late November in terms of Canadian public opinion towards politics. Although the rise of Omicron has certainly soured many Canadians’ mood, this shift has not had much impact on how the public views the federal government and political leaders in Ottawa.
Right now, the public is clearly focused on getting through this challenging period and few are likely paying much attention to politics
”
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METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 2,200 Canadian adults from January 7 to 12, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.089%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
