As Canadians may be asked to vote in a snap election resulting from an impasse between the government and opposition parties, we decided to get a quick reading directly from Canadians.
Between 5 pm and 9:30 pm ET last night, we surveyed 1,000 Canadian adults about the upcoming confidence vote, with the following preamble:
Tomorrow, MPs will vote on a motion to create a parliamentary committee that opposition parties want to probe the Liberal government’s pandemic response spending, such as the WE Charity controversy.
The Liberal government says they consider the vote a confidence vote, meaning if it passes, the government will have lost the confidence of the House of Commons and an election will be called.
About a third of those surveyed say they have been following this situation very or pretty closely. One in five Canadians (20%) hadn’t heard of it. The rest had only a vague recollection. Compared to our norms this indicates a relatively low level of public engagement so far.
Conservative supporters are slightly more likely to be following the events closely, but about a third of all four major party supporters say they are following the events at least pretty closely.
A majority (55%) of those surveyed would prefer to see the vote to create the committee passed and an election triggered. Just under half (45%) would prefer MPs act to prevent an election.
Conservative voters are broadly in favour (76%) of triggering the election, although 1 in 4 (24%) of them do not want this outcome.
Just over a third of Liberal supporters prefer to see an election, but 62% would prefer to avoid one at this time. For NDP leader Jagmeet Singh his voters are roughly evenly split with 55% preferring to avoid an election while 45% willing to go to the polls.
UPSHOT
According to Bruce Anderson: “If an election happens as a result of this vote, it likely won’t turn out to be an election about WE expenses or the establishment of a parliamentary committee – Canadians seem a lot more preoccupied with the pandemic, the economy, climate change or a host of other issues. If the opposition parties decide to force an election at this time, they can expect a public willing to go to the polls, but perhaps not sure why this was needed in the context of the pandemic.”
According to David Coletto: “Canadians don’t collectively have a clear view on what should happen today. Just over half want MPs to vote for the Conservative motion to create the parliamentary committee, even if it sparks an election, while the other half think MPs should act to prevent an election. Conservatives are on one side while Liberals are on the other. NDP supporters are split.”
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 1,000 Canadian adults on the evening of October 20, 2020. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
Competitive compensation package commensurate with experience.
Generous commission structure for all new business development.
Competitive benefits package.
Expected start date: December 2020
The opportunity:
Here at Abacus Data, a premier Ottawa-based public opinion research & strategy agency, we are looking to capitalize on explosive growth by adding to our sales and marketing team.
If you are an energetic, self-starter with a passion for sales and experience with digital marketing, let’s talk. Your time will be divided between sales (75%) and digital/social marketing for the Abacus brand (25%).
As a member of our growing and evolving team, you will directly influence our future growth and success by identifying opportunities, cultivating relationships with potential clients, and generating new sales.
In this role, you will report to the Director of Business Development and Marketing and be responsible for executing digital and social media marketing tactics to build Abacus Data’s profile and brand recognition with prospective clients.
In this role, you will work directly with clients, often acting as the first point of contact with our growing public sector client group and consumer market research segment. Finally, you will regularly interact with other service lines to bring the best Abacus Data solutions to our clients.
You will be expected to identify new business opportunities, coordinate with the research team, and suggest marketing strategies and tactics to effectively target new sales prospects
In addition, you will be responsible for drafting the weekly Abacus Data newsletter and identifying themes that align with the firm’s broader growth objectives.
Responsibilities:
Sales (75%)
Lead Generation.You will be expected to identify and secure new clients and opportunities using cold and warm call efforts.
Inbound Support.You will occasionally handle inbound calls from interested leads and need to demonstrate how our services will address and support their current needs.
Responding to RFPs. You will be responsible for drafting responses to public and private sector RFPs with great attention to detail, ensuring all of the stated requirements have been met.
Data Maintenance. You will update and maintain our CRM, keeping a well-detailed record of all your contact with clients and leads while adhering to company protocols.
Marketing (25%)
Digital Marketing: Organize, draft and schedule the weekly newsletter. Organize, schedule, and target digital marketing campaigns (Google, Twitter, LinkedIn) – reporting out on the metrics every quarter.
Social Media Management: Oversee all social media accounts including Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn.
Requirements:
1 to 3 years of sales experience including cold-calling and full sales cycle;
Prior experience/knowledge of the market industry is a definite asset, but not a requirement.
Experience proposal writing and responding to RFPs;
Understanding of the Canadian political and public affairs landscape is a definite asset, but not a requirement.
Capacity to execute effective digital and social media marketing campaigns to build brand awareness and support sales goals.
Working knowledge of Google Analytics, Tag Manager, and/or other relevant tools.
Experience running SEO and LinkedIn InMail campaigns is considered an asset.
Clear evidence of being detail-oriented with a focus on delivery and error-free work.
Strong interpersonal, writing, organizational, problem solving, and communication skills
Ability to work with minimal supervision and execute a strategy.
University or college degree/diploma in a related field.
Bilingualism in English and French is not a requirement, but an asset.
Desired Skills and Experience:
Driven to succeed – self-starter, with a record of identifying, pursuing, and closing leads.
Detail-oriented – you are someone who is picky, relenting, and focused on delivering error-free, high quality work.
Collaborative – you can work closely with the team to distinguish our proposals and pitches from those of our competitors.
Persistent – doing whatever it takes to get things done with integrity and without excuses.
Independent – you work well without constant supervision and cherish your freedom to achieve business and personal objectives.
Apply by November 10, 2020 at 5 pm ET
If you think you’re the right candidate for this task, please send a cover letter and CV to Yvonne Langen at yvonne@abacusdata.ca. Only those selected for the next round of the process will be contacted.
About Abacus Data Inc.
Founded in 2010, Abacus Data is an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
We have offices in Ottawa and Toronto, but work with clients across North America such as Shaw Communications, the Canadian Bankers Association, the Mining Association of Canada, Food & Consumer Products of Canada, NAV Canada, the Wine Growers of Canada, Teck, Imperial Oil, Canadian Real Estate Association, Google, the Air Canada Pilots Association, NUPGE, HealthPartners, the Paramedic Association of Canada, the Canadian Pharmacists Association, and Music Canada.
Our vision is to be Canada’s premier data-based strategy firm with a reputation for outstanding customer service, creative thinking, and innovative methods. We will do that by working harder, being more creative, delivering more value to our clients, while doing it all with a smile.
For more information about Abacus Data, visit our website at www.abacusdata.ca
As parts of Ontario re-enter a modified version of Phase 2 of COVID-19 protocols and restrictions, most Ontarians continue to approve of the job the Ford government is doing overall, although down from a high in May.
According to our new survey of 1,000 Ontario residents, 52% approve of the job of the provincial government led by Doug Ford while 24% disapprove. Since May, the Ford government’s approval is down 8-percentage points while disapproval is up 9-points.
The Ford Government’s approval is solid among PC voters (83%) and pretty good among Ontario Liberal voters (40% approve). NDP voters are the least likely to approve (28%) and most likely to disapprove.
Most Ontarians approve of the way the Ford Government has worked with the federal government (59%) and helped businesses during the pandemic (56%). The highest disapproval is for its handling of the long-term care system (34%) and reopening schools during the pandemic (41%). In fact, school reopening is the only item we tested where more disapproved than approved.
The Premier’s personal image is consistent with our last reading in May. 46% have a positive view of Mr. Ford compared while 28% have a negative view, mostly unchanged from our last survey.
Despite relatively a relatively positive approval rating, the Ontario PC vote share is below the share it received in the 2018 election, and substantially lower than its approval rating. 36% of decided voters would vote PC, followed by the NDP at 29% and the Liberals at 26%. Both the PCs and NDP are down from the 2018 election while the Liberals are up.
Regionally, there’s a three-way tie in Toronto, the PCs are slightly ahead of the Liberals in the GTHA, while the NDP and PCs are statistically tied in the southwest. The PCs have a healthy lead in eastern Ontario.
We find a substantial amount of variation by age. The PCs have a large lead among those aged 45 and over while the NDP and Liberals split the vote among those under 45. Among the youngest cohort (18 to 29), the PCs get 8% with the NDP and Liberals tied around 40%.
THE UPSHOT
Ontario Premier Doug Ford continues to find broad approval of his government’s overall performance, although softness is emerging in its handling of some aspects of the pandemic.
Most Ontarians approve of his government’s working relationship with the federal government and its support for businesses during the pandemic. However, the government is perceived to be handling the reopening of schools and the long-term system care poorly.
This survey did not explore other potential areas of weakness that could include the government’s handling of COVID-19 testing, its speed in reacting to a second wave, and whether people think it puts people’s health above concerns about the economy. These are all areas of potential vulnerability for the provincial government that we will explore in the future and could be contributing to the downward pressure on the government’s overall approval rating.
We see some growing unease about the government’s performance which we will continue to monitor and explore in more depth in the future.
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 1,000 adults living in Ontario from October 8 to 12, 2020. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
Experienced researcher Richard Jenkins joins Abacus Data’s Ottawa-based team where he will help grow the firm’s public sector practice and help lead the research team in Ottawa.
Richard has extensive experience in public affairs, policy development, branding, customer experience, and employee experience research for some of Canada’s leading public and private sector organizations. In addition to leading his own boutique research firm for more than 10 years, Richard has worked with TNS Kantar, Nanos Research and EKOS Research. He completed his Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of British Columbia in 1999. “We are excited to be welcome Richard to our team,” said the Chief Executive David Coletto. “Richard brings his over 20 years of experience in public affairs and marketing research to our growing team of experts and consultants.”
Celebrating its 10th anniversary this year, Abacus Data quickly established itself as a leader in public opinion and market research. Working with some of North America’s leading brands, associations, and public sector organizations, Abacus Data helps clients make better decisions through high-quality data, insights, and strategic advice.
“Richard will build on an already roster of highly skilled and experienced researchers,” added Coletto. “I’m excited to have him join me in Ottawa and support our growing team now based in Toronto.”
Richard oversees Abacus Data’s growing public sector practice working with partners in all three levels of government as well as public sector organizations to deliver high-quality research services from custom surveys, to qualitative research, to innovative data tracking and social media listening exercises.
“Over the past few years, I’ve been impressed with the calibre of work the team at Abacus Data has produced,” said Dr. Jenkins. “Bruce and David have a strong reputation as being hardworking, smart, and forward-looking research professionals, I’m excited to join them and the entire team.”
After last week’s Speech from the Throne Liberal support is steady nationally at 35%, with the Conservatives five points back. NDP support is steady at 17%.
The regional breaks show the Liberals ahead in BC (by 4 points), Ontario (by 8 points), Quebec (by 7 points) and Atlantic Canada (by 17 points).
Overall assessments of the federal government have inched up in recent weeks: today 47% approve and 37% disapprove, that’s 3-points higher than earlier this month.
On a regional basis, the Liberals find 46% approval in Quebec, 48% in Ontario, 52% in BC and 57% in Atlantic Canada. Across the three Prairie provinces, more people disapprove than approve of the Trudeau government.
Views of the three main party leaders are fairly steady. Trudeau is at +3 (41% approve, 38 disapprove), O’Toole is -1 (23% approve, 24% disapprove) and Singh is +13 (37% approve, 24% disapprove).
The Prime Minister is liked by 85% of Liberal voters, 39% of Green Party voters, 34% of NDP voters. Most BQ voters (68%) dislike Mr. Trudeau, as is the case with Conservative voters (73%).
UPSHOT
According to Bruce Anderson: “Right now, Canadians are focused on the pandemic and the economy and trying to cope with uncertainty about both. The Liberals got little obvious lift from their Throne Speech but will be able to take some comfort in the fact that other than in Alberta and Saskatchewan there is a reasonably good level of support for the direction the government is taking.
The Prime Minister is often a focal point of Conservative criticism but our numbers continue to suggest that there are limitations to this approach – CPC voters who dislike the PM amount to 21% of the electorate – to build a winning coalition Erin O’Toole will need to craft a more compelling reason to replace the government than dislike of Mr. Trudeau.”
According to David Coletto: “We continue to see relatively stable opinions when it comes to politics in Canada. The Speech from the Throne does not appear to have fundamentally changed much yet with the Liberals having a clear advantage over the Conservatives who remain stuck in the low 30s.
I continue to monitor the government’s relatively high approval rating. The gap between those approving of the government and saying they would vote Liberal is near the highest it has been in our tracking and suggests if forced into an election, the Liberals may do considerably better than the vote intention numbers suggest.”
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 2,440 Canadian adults from 23 to 28, 2020. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.0%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
Abacus Data Bulletins are short analyses of public opinion data we collect. For more information or media interviews, contact Bruce Anderson or David Coletto.
Millions of Canadian parents are anxious about whether their children are safe as school returns this fall. In our latest nationwide survey, we probed Covid-19 related anxieties and here’s what we found:
• 47% of those who have children in primary, secondary or post-secondary school say they are fairy or very anxious about whether things are being handled safely on campuses, in classrooms and school buildings. This includes 15% who say they are very anxious.
• Anxiety levels are above 50% in BC, and Ontario as well as across Saskatchewan and Manitoba, and are lower than average in Quebec and Atlantic Canada.
• Fathers and mothers show very similar levels of anxiety.
• A clear majority (56%) of parents with kids in primary schools or secondary schools are anxious.
• 51% of Conservatives are anxious, as are 46% of Liberals, and 55% of New Democrat supporters.
Our deeper analysis shows that worries about COVID-19 have a significant relationship with whether people think the country is heading in the right direction or is on the wrong track. Among those who think the country is going in the right direction, just 34% are worried about school safety right now. Among those who think the country is on the wrong track, anxiety is 22-points higher, at 56%.
UPSHOT
“It’s probably not an overstatement to suggest that a parent’s concern about their children’s health and safety is going to be the most important consideration for them on a day to day basis. The pandemic has, for many parents, brought both the economic anxiety that everyone feels and an extra amount of concern as their children return to schools and campuses. Those stakeholders who are arguing against lockdowns and in favour of a rapid normalization of everyday life, may find themselves meeting a strong headwind of parental concern depending on the depth and nature of this fall’s pandemic spikes.”
GRAPHICS
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 546 Canadian parents of children in primary, secondary, or post-secondary schools from September 18 to 21, 2020. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 4.3%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.
An election today would see the Liberals (35%) slightly ahead of the Conservatives (32%) nationally with the NDP back at 17%. Since early this month, the Liberals are up by two, the Conservatives one, and while the NDP is down one – changes all within the margin of error.
The regional patterns indicate the Liberals are in a strong position than the national number suggests. The Liberals lead the BQ by 10-points in Quebec (36% to 26%), lead the Conservatives by 6 in Ontario (39% to 33%) and have an almost 30-point lead in Atlantic Canada (54% to 25%). The Conservatives and Liberals are close in BC (34% to 29%) while the Conservatives dominate in the Prairies.
As he sets to outline the government’s agenda to a new session of Parliament, the Prime Minister’s image remains split with 40% having a positive view of him and 39% having a negative view. Although down from highs in May and June, the PM’s numbers are still stronger than they were before the pandemic began.
Impressions of Mr. O’Toole have become slightly more negative over the past few weeks. 23% have a negative view of the Conservative leader compared with 22% who have a positive view.
Mr. Singh’s numbers remain more positive with 34% having a positive impression (down 3 since early September) and 25% negative.
Approval of the federal government is steady and generally positive with 46% approving and 37% disapproving. Outside of Saskatchewan and Alberta, the federal government’s approval rating is at least 43% reaching 60% in Atlantic Canada, 52% in BC, and 47% in Ontario.
80% of people who voted Liberal last fall approve of how the government is doing, while 9% disapprove. Conservatives hold almost opposite views with 74% disapproving and 15% approving. Almost half of NDP voters approve (47%) while a third disapprove (34%). BQ voters are generally more disapproving of the government than approving (53% disapprove vs. 25% who approve).
The gap between the federal government’s approval rating (46%) and the Liberal vote share (35%) is something to watch carefully. It suggests the Liberal vote share has plenty of room to grow and maybe underperforming. For comparison, just prior to the start of the 2019 election campaign, the government’s approval rating was 36%. It ended up with 34% of the popular vote.
Among the 46% who approve of the job performance of the Liberal government, 56% would vote Liberal today. The other 44% split between preferring the NDP (14%), the Conservatives (8%), the Greens (6%), and the BQ (2%). 13% are currently undecided.
If that 13% who are undecided did vote Liberal, the party’s vote share would increase to 42% and the Liberals would have a 10-point lead over the Conservatives. That gap between approval and vote is something to monitor closely over the next few months.
UPSHOT
According to Bruce Anderson: “We are heading into a period of remarkable uncertainty – on any number of fronts – including the pandemic, the global economy, the US elections. The patterns of opinion provincially and federally tend to underscore that people are drawn towards stability over disruption in this period of time. Events that might in other circumstances carry more political charge seem to be ignored by many people, as the focus is on getting through a day, a week, a month at a time, and hoping for a solution to the pandemic before too many more months. These numbers are a reminder to government that people are looking for steady over flashy and to opposition parties that partisanship for its own sake carries a particularly bad odour today as voters struggle with everyday life.”
According to David Coletto: “The Canadian political landscape appears to have entered another period of stability, despite a high level of public uncertainty and anxiety. Despite Erin O’Toole’s win as Conservative leader and perhaps because of the on-going COVID-19 pandemic, public opinion has remained relatively stable for the past few months.
The Liberals and Conservatives are competitive in vote intentions, but the Liberal government has a solid and durable approval rating. The Prime Minister’s image remains more positive than it was before the pandemic started.
As the government outlines its new agenda for the next session of Parliament, it does so in a position of relative strength. It has healthy leads in Ontario and Quebec and is continued to be viewed positively by almost half the country. The pandemic and its economic and social impact have Canadians on edge but so far, many are satisfied with the federal government’s performance.”
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
METHODOLOGY
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian residents from September 18 to 21, 2020. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
Earlier this month, the Broadbent Institute commissioned us to conduct a national public opinion survey to explore the kind of recovery agenda Canadians want the federal government to set in response to the pandemic.
The survey found:
1. Almost half (45%) think the worst of the pandemic is still to come and only 19% think the worst is behind us.
2. Most Canadians believe the pandemic has had negative impacts on many aspects of life, including the availability of good-paying jobs, the ability to prepare for retirement, housing affordability, and wealth and income inequality in Canada.
3. Almost all Canadians (82%) believe that the wealth of Canada’s richest people is better off or has not been impacted by the pandemic while most think the economic and social well-being of youth, racialized Canadians, and women have been negative impacted.
4. 65% of Canadians believe “the pandemic has highlighted problems with how the economy and social policies are run in Canada and major changes are needed to ensure that these problems do not happen again if there is another crisis like the COVID-19 pandemic.”
5. Given this, half of Canadians want to see the federal government announce bold new ideas for how to fundamentally improve people’s lives and deal with climate change. 36% want the federal government to announce some changes, but nothing that fundamentally changes how things are done. 10% want the government to keep the direction it set before the pandemic and change very little.
6. There is a broad and deep desire from Canadians to see a post-COVID recovery agenda that helps make Canada more self-sufficient on manufacturing/growing key products, puts people first, improves public services, helps transition to a low-carbon economy, and forces the richest in Canada to help pay for the new investments.
Here are more detailed findings from the survey:
WE AREN’T OUT OF THE WOODS YET: 45% THINK THE WORST OF THE PANDEMIC IS STILL TO COME
Almost half of Canadians remain pessimistic about the outlook for the pandemic. 45% think the worst is still to come, while only 19% feel the worst of the pandemic is behind us. The remaining 36% are not sure about the outlook.
This uncertainty and unease underscore the public’s mood about the pandemic, its impact, and how they want governments to respond to a post-COVID recovery.
FROM JOBS TO INEQUALITY, TO HOUSING: CANADIANS BELIEVE THE PANDEMIC HAS MADE MANY THINGS WORSE.
The survey asked respondents whether the COVID-19 pandemic has made several aspects of life and particular groups in society better or worse off.
A majority of Canadians believe the pandemic has made things worse when it comes to:
• The availability of good paying, secure jobs (70% worse). • The ability of people to plan for a secure retirement (68% worse). • Income and wealth inequality (62% worse). • The available of affordable and high-quality childcare (59% worse). • The affordability of housing (58% worse).
Canadians also recognize that particular groups have been negatively impacted by the pandemic.
About a majority believe:
• The opportunities for young people have become worse because of COVID-19 (64%). • The health and well-being of front-line workers in healthcare, retail, and other service sectors is worse because of COVID-19 (54%). • The economic and social well-being of racialized or visible minority communities is worse because of COVID-19 (55%). • The economic and social well-being of women is worse because of COVID-19 (49%).
In contrast, almost all Canadians (82%) believe that the wealth of Canada’s wealthiest people is better or has not been impacted by the pandemic. In fact, 31% think Canada’s richest people are better off because of the pandemic. Only 18% think they are worse off.
MAKE MAJOR CHANGES NOW TO PREVENT THIS FROM HAPPENING AGAIN. 2 IN 3 CANADIANS THINK MAJOR CHANGES TO HOW THE ECONOMY AND SOCIAL PROGRAMS RUN TO ENSURE THE PROBLEMS THE PANDEMIC HIGHLIGHTED DON’T HAPPEN AGAIN.
65% of Canadians believe “the pandemic has highlighted problems with how the economy and social policies are run in Canada and major changes are needed to ensure that these problems do not happen again if there is another crisis like the COVID-19 pandemic.” Only 19% think the “way the Canadian economy and social policies worked before the pandemic was good and does not need major change.”
The desire for major changes is consistent across Canada, across age groups and gender and even across the political spectrum. 62% of Liberal voters, 69% of Conservative voters, and 72% of NDP voters want to see a major change.
Given this, half of Canadians want to see the federal government announce bold new ideas for how to fundamentally improve people’s lives and deal with climate change. 36% want the federal government to make some changes, but nothing that fundamentally changes how things are done. 10% want the government to keep the direction it set before the pandemic and change very little.
This view is consistent across the country, with half of those living in every region or province wanting bold new ideas from the federal government. There’s also some consistency across the political spectrum. 54% of Liberal voters want bold new ideas, 45% of Conservatives, 69% of Liberals, 74% of Greens, and 63% of BQ voters.
CANADIANS WANT A POST-COVID RECOVERY THAT PUTS PEOPLE FIRST.
There is a broad and deep desire from Canadians to see a post-COVID recovery agenda that helps make Canada more self-sufficient on key products, puts people first, improves public services, helps transition to a low-carbon economy, and forces the richest in Canada to help pay for the new investments.
We asked: “As the federal government prepares its agenda for Canada’s post-COVID recovery, tell us how important, if at all, the recovery effort meets the following criteria?”
Specifically, the survey found that a majority of Canadians say it is extremely or very important that the post-COVID recovery plan include:
• Help to build up Canada’s ability to produce key products like food and medical supplies domestically (74%). • Invests in strengthening our health system including universal public pharmacare (70%). • Focuses on helping people and doesn’t allow corporations to set the agenda and benefit the most from the recovery (67%). • New laws and regulations are put in place to help protect vulnerable front-line workers for exploitation (63%). • Giving municipalities the funding they need to continue to deliver core services and build infrastructure for the changing economy (63%). • Increasing or creating new taxes on Canada’s richest people (60%). • Ideas to ensure younger Canadians are not permanently set back because of the economic crisis (57%). • A major focus to help Canada transition to a clean, low-carbon economy and deal effectively with climate change (54%). • A plan to ensure affordable, high-quality childcare is available to everyone who needs it (47%).
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The survey also found broad support for a new wealth tax on the wealthiest multi-millionaires and billionaires in Canada and for a new tax on corporations who have made large profits during the pandemic.
THERE IS POLITICAL RISK FOR THE LIBERALS IF THEY FAIL TO DELIVER BOLD, NEW IDEAS.
Among the 54% who want to see bold new ideas from the Liberal government’s post-COVID recovery plan, 49% say they will definitely not vote Liberal or probably not vote Liberal if they do not announce bold new ideas for how to fundamentally improve people’s lives and deal with climate change in the Throne Speech next week.
This includes 18% of those who voted Liberal in 2019 or about 10% of the entire electorate.
UPSHOT
The COVID-19 pandemic continues to cause widespread concern and anxiety for Canadians. Almost half still think the worst is yet to come, and most do not feel the economy will recover to pre-COVID levels within 12 months.
The pandemic has also highlighted many aspects of the economy and society that Canadians feel are not working right. Moreover, most recognize that the pandemic has made many aspects of life – from finding a good job, to preparing for retirement, to finding affordable housing – harder to achieve.
Given this, there is clear majority support for a post-COVID recovery plan that is bold and has new ideas to improve the problems the pandemic has exposed and to ensure that they do not happen again if another crisis like COVID-19 happens in the future.
Most say it is very important that the post-COVID recovery plan strengthens Canada’s production capacity to supply key products, that it strengthens the public health care system, and it helps transition the economy away from fossil fuels. There’s also a deep desire to see it put people, not corporations first, and for those with the most to help pay for the new investments.
The opinion environment is ready for a bold and progressive post-COVID plan. Most Canadians expect bold action from the government.
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
METHODOLOGY
Our survey was conducted online with 2,000 Canadians aged 18 and over from September 4 to 9, 2020. A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
An election today would see the Liberals (33%) and Conservatives (31%) in a virtual tie in terms of national support. The NDP is further back with 18%, a level they have maintained for many months now.
The regional patterns show the Liberals tied with the BQ in Quebec, virtually deadlocked with the Conservatives in Ontario, ahead of the Conservatives by 7 points in BC, and leading by 9 in Atlantic Canada. The Conservatives hold massive leads in the three Prairie provinces.
The narrowing of the gap between the two front running parties is most notable in Ontario. It coincides with the Conservatives’ selection of Erin O’Toole, an Ontario Member of Parliament, as their new leader. During the same period, we see a 7-point rise in favourable opinions of Mr. O’Toole. For the first time since we began tracking sentiment towards Mr. O’Toole, positive impressions (21%) outstrip negative (19%) views of him. In Ontario, Mr. O’Toole’s positives increased by 10-points in a few weeks, from 11% last month to 21% today, the largest shift in any region of the country.
Impressions of Prime Minister Trudeau sagged during this measurement period, with positives dropping 7 points and negatives up 3. Views of NDP leader Jagmeet Singh are showing signs of improvement over time, with his positives edging upward over the summer to 37%, the highest positive number we have ever registered for Mr. Singh.
Approval of the federal government is steady, with 44% saying they approve of the job Ottawa is doing and 38% disapproving. Approval of the government is highest in BC (52%), Atlantic Canada, and Ontario (49%) and lower in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Quebec.
Three of four people who voted Liberal last fall approve of how the government is doing, while 12% disapprove. Conservatives hold almost opposite views with 74% disapproving and 14% approving. New Democratic and Green voters are evenly split with 42% approving of the federal government and 36% disapproving while Bloc voters in Quebec are more likely to disapprove than approve by more than a 2 to 1 margin.
UPSHOT
According to Bruce Anderson: “Andrew Scheer’s unpopularity has been removed as a political factor, and the signals are that Erin O’Toole is beginning his life as Conservative Party leader in a highly competitive position. Scheer was disliked by 47% of voters; O’Toole is disliked by only 19%. The narrowing of the gap indicates that support for the Liberals was to some degree anyway built on dislike for Scheer, and the Liberals now need to assume they are locked in a race that feels more head to head, than ahead by a length.
These numbers also suggest that a not insignificant proportion of Liberal voters are less than enthused about the performance of the government and while the government used to be able to count on broad support from NDP voters – this too has softened. BQ voters are attitudinally looking more like Conservative voters in their feelings about the federal government. None of this looks like the mood of people who see a clear agenda from Ottawa, and probably reflects a sense that the agenda has seemed somewhat diffuse and defensive for weeks.
We’ll dig into more details about how different issues are affecting choice in our next release or two.”
According to David Coletto: “The political environment in Canada appears to be highly competitive as the Liberal government aims to reset the agenda with a Throne Speech later this month.
The Liberals and Conservatives are essentially tied while the NDP support slowly crept up to 18%. Close to its high point over the past few months.
Four findings standout to min our latest results:
First, Erin O’Toole’s first days as Conservative leader appear to have started well. His positives are up 7-points while his negatives are down.
Second, I’d watch Quebec carefully. Views of Mr. Trudeau and the Liberal government are quite polarized in the province, and the BQ is now tied with the Liberals there.
Third, Jagmeet Singh’s numbers continue to improve. More people have a positive view of the NDP leader today than they have at any point in our tracking.
Finally, Liberal vote share is down while the government’s overall approval rating has remained steady. Only about half of those who approve of the federal government say they would vote Liberal if an election were held today. 16% would vote NDP, 9% would vote Conservative, 5% Green, while 11% say they are undecided.”
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 2,289 Canadian residents from August 28 to September 3, 2020. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
Abacus Data Bulletins are short analyses of public opinion data we collect. For more information or media interviews, contact Bruce Anderson or David Coletto.
About one in five (19%) Canadian adults has a child eligible to get to primary or secondary school in Canada this fall, including 38% of those who are between the ages of 30-44.
Based on the approach that they understand is being taken within their province in terms of pandemic related preparations, half of them would prefer not to see their kids in classrooms.
Men and women are not divided on this question: 49% of mothers and 52% of fathers prefer not to have their kids in classrooms.
Because of the smaller sample size of parents, care needs to be taken in looking at regional differences. However, it looks like opinion is fairly evenly split in BC, Ontario and Quebec, while Albertans are more likely to want to see their kids in classrooms.
Conservative voting parents (65%) prefer kids in classrooms, while Liberal (49%) and NDP (40%) parents are more hesitant.
UPSHOT
“Throughout the pandemic, our polling has shown that Canadians want to err on the side of caution. And even with the passage of months and declining infection rates, there is plenty of anxiety about what will happen when kids return to schools in the next couple of weeks. Governments will be under intense scrutiny and be expected to act quickly if parents feel that protection protocols are not working and their children are at risk. So far, the level of confidence is tentative, at best.”
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 278 Canadian parents of school-aged children from August 17 to 21, 2020. A random sample of panellists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 6.0%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.
