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October 1, 2020

By Bruce Anderson & David Coletto

After last week’s Speech from the Throne Liberal support is steady nationally at 35%, with the Conservatives five points back. NDP support is steady at 17%.

The regional breaks show the Liberals ahead in BC (by 4 points), Ontario (by 8 points), Quebec (by 7 points) and Atlantic Canada (by 17 points).

Overall assessments of the federal government have inched up in recent weeks: today 47% approve and 37% disapprove, that’s 3-points higher than earlier this month.

On a regional basis, the Liberals find 46% approval in Quebec, 48% in Ontario, 52% in BC and 57% in Atlantic Canada. Across the three Prairie provinces, more people disapprove than approve of the Trudeau government.

Views of the three main party leaders are fairly steady. Trudeau is at +3 (41% approve, 38 disapprove), O’Toole is -1 (23% approve, 24% disapprove) and Singh is +13 (37% approve, 24% disapprove).

The Prime Minister is liked by 85% of Liberal voters, 39% of Green Party voters, 34% of NDP voters. Most BQ voters (68%) dislike Mr. Trudeau, as is the case with Conservative voters (73%).

 

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “Right now, Canadians are focused on the pandemic and the economy and trying to cope with uncertainty about both. The Liberals got little obvious lift from their Throne Speech but will be able to take some comfort in the fact that other than in Alberta and Saskatchewan there is a reasonably good level of support for the direction the government is taking.

The Prime Minister is often a focal point of Conservative criticism but our numbers continue to suggest that there are limitations to this approach – CPC voters who dislike the PM amount to 21% of the electorate – to build a winning coalition Erin O’Toole will need to craft a more compelling reason to replace the government than dislike of Mr. Trudeau.”

According to David Coletto: “We continue to see relatively stable opinions when it comes to politics in Canada. The Speech from the Throne does not appear to have fundamentally changed much yet with the Liberals having a clear advantage over the Conservatives who remain stuck in the low 30s.

I continue to monitor the government’s relatively high approval rating. The gap between those approving of the government and saying they would vote Liberal is near the highest it has been in our tracking and suggests if forced into an election, the Liberals may do considerably better than the vote intention numbers suggest.”

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METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 2,440 Canadian adults from 23 to 28, 2020. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.0%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

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