Location:
Abacus Data operates offices in Ottawa & Toronto. A team member can be based anywhere in Canada but preference will be given to candidates who can commute to the location at least once a week.
Compensation:
Salary: $70,000 to $85,000 is typical for this role, however the compensation package may be increased or decreased to be commensurate with experience.
Annual performance bonus based on overall performance of the company.
Generous marketing bonus for all new business development.
Expected start date:
As early as April 2023, or at such a time as a suitable candidate is found.
The opportunity:
At Abacus Data, a premier Canadian public opinion research & strategy agency, we are looking to capitalize on explosive growth by adding to our research team.
In this role, you will work closely with the firm’s executive team to help service the firm’s growing roster of public and private sector clients, with abundant opportunities to take on clients on your own & job craft a research specialization as the company grows.
In the immediate term, this role will see you work on research files both independently and with the supervision of a senior lead, acting as the principal author & project manager of Abacus’ custom research survey projects.
In more technical terms, this role will be responsible for assisting team leads in managing client relationships, overseeing the survey fielding & reporting process, and writing compelling, timely and strategic research reports based on public opinion survey results.
Responsibilities:
Work closely with the CEO, Executive Vice President, and Director level team leads to design & analyze the results of public opinion research surveys.
Liaise with the fielding & analytics team to ensure surveys are being programmed & graphically reported according to client & firm expectations.
Write high-quality analysis prose reports for our clients that is error-free, valuable, and meets the standards of our leadership team.
Manage other day to day responsibilities of research projects as directed by the senior team, including client consultation, proposal development, creation of research instruments, analysis, and presentation of final deliverables.
Requirements:
Some of our most successful hires have come into research roles from adjacent public affairs careers or other non-research backgrounds. Please do not hesitate to reach out & apply even if you do not meet all criteria below.
3 to 7 years of experience in a research role designing, executing and analyzing public opinion research projects.
Experience analyzing data and helping clients use data to make decisions.
An analytical mind that is excited about telling stories using data and research.
Clear evidence of being detail-oriented with a focus on delivery and error-free work.
Able to create stunning presentations that tell the story in our data to our clients and potential clients.
Strong interpersonal, writing, organizational, problem-solving, and communication skills
Ability to work with minimal supervision.
University or college degree/diploma in a related field.
Must be legally eligible to work in Canada
Bilingualism in English and French is not a requirement, but an asset.
Apply by April 3rd at 5pm ET.
If you think you’re the right candidate for this task, please send a cover letter and CV to Ihor Korbabicz at ihor@stagesite.abacusdata.ca referencing “Job 858395 – Consultant/Senior Consultant” in the subject line. Only those selected for the next round of the process will be contacted.
About Abacus Data Inc.
We are the only firm that helps organizations respond to the unprecedented threats of generational change and technological disruption.
Founded in 2010, Abacus Data is an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
We work with brands and organizations such as Shaw Communications, the Canadian Bankers Association, the Mining Association of Canada, Food & Consumer Products of Canada, NAV Canada, the Canadian Real Estate Association, Teck, Imperial Oil, Nestle Waters, Google, the Air Canada Pilots Association, NUPGE, HealthPartners, the Paramedic Association of Canada, the Canadian Pharmacists Association, and the Canadian Health Food Association.
Our vision is to be Canada’s premier data-based strategy firm with a reputation for outstanding customer service, creative thinking, and innovative methods. We will do that by working harder, being more creative, delivering more value to our clients, while doing it all with a smile.
For more information about Abacus Data, visit our website at abacusdata.ca.
From March 2 to 4, 2023, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 2,600 adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.
Note, this survey was completed prior to the Prime Minister’s announcement on Monday evening and comments by opposition party leaders and MPs in response.
In this report, I report on several topics:
Views on possible Chinese interference in Canadian federal election and support for a public inquiry.
Impression of the Liberal/NDP Confidence and Supply Agreement as it approaches its one-year anniversary.
An update to our regular tracking of vote intentions and impressions of political leaders and other issues.
Chinese Government Interference in Canadian Elections
As of last Saturday, just over eight in ten Canadians said they had heard about the news regarding possible Chinese government interference in Canadian federal elections. Eight percent are following the story very closely while another 25% say they are following it pretty closely. Compared with other issues we have asked similar questions about, this is a higher-than-normal level of awareness, but not a high degree of engagement on the issue.
Overall, 44% of Canadians believe the Chinese government was actively trying to influence the outcome of the 2021 election. 18% don’t believe it was happening while 37% are unsure. Almost all of those following the issue closely believe the Chinese government was trying to influence the election.
In a follow-up question to those who believe the Chinese government was trying to influence the election, we asked whether that interference changed the outcome of the election or not.
When we combine responses to this question with the original question we find that:
37% of Canadians are unsure whether the Chinese government interfered in the 2021 federal election
18% of Canadians believe the Chinese government did not try to influence the 2021 federal election.
19% believe the Chinese government was trying to influence the outcome but that the Liberals would have won the election anyway, whether the Chinese interfered in the election or not.
13% believe the Chinese government was trying to influence the outcome and the election outcome was changed. Another party would have won the election had the Chinese not interfered in the election.
12% believe the Chinese government was trying to influence the outcome but are unsure where it changed the election outcome.
Not surprisingly, those who are following the issue more closely have more definitive views on the impact of that interference on the election outcome but even about 1 in 3 are uncertain about the impact of possible election interference.
When we look at these results through a partisan lens, we find that 1 in 4 Conservative voters in 2021 believe the Chinese government tried to influence the outcome of the 2021 election, and another party would have won had it not interfered.
Finally, we asked people if they thought the Prime Minister should call a public inquiry to investigate this issue further. Note, this was asked before the announcement on Monday.
There is widespread support for an inquiry, little opposition, and Liberal voters are as likely as Conservatives ones to support an inquiry.
Liberal-NDP Confidence and Supply Agreement
We also asked Canadians their views on the Liberal-NDP Confidence and Supply agreement as it approaches its one-year anniversary. Be sure to listen to Althia Raj’s podcast where the topic is explored in far more detail.
Today, 1 in 3 Canadians had not heard about the agreement before we asked about it in our survey.
Overall, 42% believe the agreement has been a good thing for Canada while 29% feel it has been a bad thing. 17% say it’s had no impact. These results align with Canadians’ expectations about the deal in a survey we completed a year ago.
Views about the deal are strongly correlated to party support. 71% of Liberal supporters and 66% of NDP supporters think the agreement has been a good thing for Canada. Green and BQ supporters hold more mixed views while Conservative and People’s Party supporters generally think the deal has been bad for Canada.
When asked whether the NDP should continue to support the deal it has with the Liberals and prevent an early election or whether the NDP should end the deal even if it means forcing an early election, Canadians are pretty split. 53% want the deal to continue while 47% want it to end.
Again, partisanship plays a big role in determining one’s view on the matter. 85% of Liberal supporters want the deal to continue while 81% of Conservative supporters want it to end.
Among NDP supporters, 68% want the deal to continue while 32% want it to end.
Given all the news and events in the past few weeks, has the political opinion environment in Canada changed?
The short answer is no.
If an election was held at the time of the survey, the Conservatives would get 36% of the vote with the Liberals seven points back at 29%. The NDP is in third at 18%. Compared with our last survey, there has been almost no change in vote intention.
Among all Canadians (not just those committed to voting for one party), 29% would vote Conservative, 24% Liberal, and 15% for the NDP. 18% of Canadians are undecided at this time.
Regionally, the Conservatives are well ahead in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba. The Conservatives and Liberals are statistically tied in Ontario and Atlantic Canada while in Quebec, the BQ is ahead by 8 points over the Liberals.
Beyond vote intention, other indicators are also fairly steady since last month.
The overall mood of the country looks similar to what it’s been for the past five months. The mood remains quite negative with only 31% feel the country is headed in the right direction.
The federal government’s approval rating is steady as well with 35% approving and 49% disapproving representing only a marginal one-point change since last month.
Impressions of the party leaders, except for Jagmeet Singh, are steady as well.
Justin Trudeau: 31% positive (-1) vs. 49% negative (+1) = -18 net
Pierre Poilievre: 30% positive (-1) vs. 36% negative (+1) = -6 net
Jagmeet Singh: 38% positive (+4) vs. 30% negative (-1) = +8 net
Even when we measure the electorate’s desire for change we don’t see much change although the desire for change remains elevated than what it was at the end of either the 2019 or 2021 election campaigns.
Today 49% definitely want to see a change in government while another 25% want change but say it’s not important to them. In contrast, 14% definitely want to see the Liberals re-elected while 12% want to keep the Liberals in power, but say it’s not that important to them.
UPSHOT
According to David Coletto: “Although the Chinese election interference story has gained wide public awareness, not many people are closely following it. While there is more interest and engagement than usual for national political stories, the majority of Canadians have not yet become engaged in the topic.
Furthermore, the story has left many Canadians feeling confused and uncertain about the situation, which is not surprising given that much of the information available is based on leaked intelligence reports and incomplete accounts of what is known. Despite this, there is strong public support for a public inquiry, which may put additional pressure on the federal government and the Prime Minister to expand the investigations they have already initiated.
However, so far, these events have not had any significant impact on public opinion about politics or political choices. There has been no shift in vote intentions, impressions of the party leaders, or the general desire for change. This may change if more news comes to light, but currently, it seems that while the public is concerned about possible interference in elections, it has not altered their views of the political options available. The Conservative Party continues to have an advantage, while the Liberal Party continues to face its most challenging opinion environment since being elected in 2015.”
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 2,600 Canadian adults from March 2 to 4, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.0%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
At Abacus Data, we are committed to understanding how Canadian attitudes, behaviours, and perceptions vary across the demographic spectrum. Through our ongoing Canadian Millennials Study we’ve been able to help the general public, government, non-profits, and private companies understand how generational change and technological disruption are reshaping the Canadian public opinion landscape.
Following the findings of some of our latest research, we felt it was high time to bring this kind of rigour to explore how the lived experiences of Canadians, their behaviours, and attitudes are gendered. Today, we are proud to release some of the most fascinating insights from the inaugural fielding of our She/Her/Hers research practice, a biannual syndicated study of 2,000 Canadian women and 500 Canadian men.
The study explores a range of subject areas that inform what it’s like being a Canadian woman today – from home life, work life, finances, and consumer behaviour. Below are some of the study’s key findings. For more on the data please reach out to Oksana and for inquiries related to the purchase of the syndicated study please reach out to Yvonne.
Before we got into specifics, we asked respondents to sum up, in a word, what it’s like being a woman today. Their responses reflect a lot of the trends we see in the survey results.
The most common word to describe what it’s like being a woman today is ‘hard’. Women also feel ‘empowered’ and more ‘independent’, which reflects some of the major institutional hurdles overcome in the last several decades.
While there may be fewer systemic barriers for women to circumvent, there are still other challenges that persist. Workforce participation has soared amongst women over the past several decades and women now have more financial freedom to exercise purchasing power in the consumer space but social pressures, stereotypes, and stigma are still prevalent and prevent women from reaching true equity.
One of the key takeaways from the She/Her/Hers study is just how many of these stereotypes and historically ‘pink tasks’ Canadian women are still carrying with them, even as they break through the glass ceiling.
WOMEN AT HOME
Women are still largely responsible for work in the home such as cooking, cleaning, grocery shopping and parenting responsibilities. Over half of women who live with a partner say they are responsible for the majority of the cooking, cleaning, grocery shopping and (if they have kids) parenting responsibilities. This holds true even among women who are the primary income earners of their household.
Women say tasks like paying bills and financial planning are more evenly split but home maintenance tasks are more likely to be the left for their partners.
Women also report doing more emotional labour in the household. 72% of women say they are the default partner responsible for remembering birthdays and maintaining a healthy social calendar in their relationship. 61% carry the majority of the mental load of tasks (meaning while their partner may grocery shop or take care of home maintenance, they are responsible for knowing when and what needs to be done for these tasks).
WOMEN IN THE WORKPLACE
Given the uneven distribution of emotional labour in a domestic setting, it is no surprise that these responsibilities in the workplace also tend to fall to women. 42% of women say they are asked to take on social tasks like birthday cards and planning social events more frequently than their male counterparts. 41% of women say they are asked to take notes in a meeting more frequently than their male counterparts.
Taking on the burden of these tasks means women have less time and are given less support to take on responsibilities that might help them climb the corporate ladder. Increased workforce participation has been an important step towards achieving gender equity in recent years but the nature of and compensation for that participation still remains unequal.
WOMEN AND FINANCES
Amongst women in relationships, financial planning is increasingly a shared responsibility among partners. That being said, our findings indicate there is still room for improvement on women’s self-reported financial literacy across several key investment vehicles including the stock market, real estate, and retirement planning. Only 28% of women say they are very comfortable with money management – 8 points lower than men.
Women can access financial tools like credits cards (albeit not until 1974), and savings vehicles just the same as men, but feel much less confident in their knowledge of these financial tools. Women are much less knowledgeable (self-reported) than men on many key components of building wealth and financial stability.
Women are equally as likely as men to have a financial advisor, but still turn to their partner for a large portion of their financial advice. Additionally, 29% of women say a lot of the products they are interested in seem to ignore women. By 2024, it is expected that 50% of the privately held wealth in Canada will be that of women. Canadian women are waiting for businesses and financial services institutions to take this reality seriously.
THE UPSHOT
According to Oksana
In our inaugural She/Her/Hers study we collected a wide range of data on many topics, but one trend stood out for me throughout. Women are being given more opportunities, responsibilities and power, but are still being disproportionately saddled with domestic and emotional labour. Greater participation in the workforce is a good thing, but if women are still carrying the bulk of the cooking and cleaning, have we really reached equality? We know that women can be equal players in all spaces (the boardroom, the home, the voting booth, the store…), so it’s time that women be invited to contribute, or better yet take the lead, instead of inviting women in just to sit in the corner and take notes.
According to Yvonne
I was eager to explore the gendered dynamics of Canadian life because many of my personal experiences seeking financial services, car shopping, and getting medical advice felt unequal. Our first She/Her/Hers study has clearly demonstrated that I’m not alone and many women feel ill-served by advertisers, excluded from pathways to improved financial literacy, and discriminated against at the mechanic. I look forward to digging deeper into these findings in the weeks to come and taking an intersectional lens to the data to explore how women of different age, race, income, and political stripe experience life at home, at work, at the bank, and more.
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 2,500 Canadian adults (2,000 Canadian women and 500 Canadian men) from February 9 to 16, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.96%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This data represents just a fraction of our findings from the inaugural She/Her/Hers study, which encompasses a wide range of topics like women at home, women in the workplace, women and finances, women as consumers and women’s health. If you are interested in purchasing the full study or a specific section thereof, please contact our Vice President, Sales and Marketing, Yvonne Langen.
For media inquiries please contact the lead researcher on the She/Her/Hers Study, Director of Strategy and Insights, Oksana Kishchuk.
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
From March 2 to 4, 2023, Abacus Data surveyed 1,000 Ontario adults and asked them about their views and intentions as they relate to Ontario provincial politics.
Here’s what we found:
The PCs lead the Ontario Liberals by 13 points, with the NDP back in third.
If a provincial election was held at the time of the survey, the PC Party would get 41% of the vote, followed by the Ontario Liberals at 28%, the Ontario NDP at 22%, and the Ontario Green Party at 5%. Compared with our last survey conducted in November 2022, the PCs are up 3, the Liberal vote is up marginally by 1 point and the NDP is down 4.
Note, our last survey was completed in the middle of the controversy surrounding the work action of education workers in Ontario and the provincial government’s pre-emptive use of the Notwithstanding Clause to force workers to stay on the job.
Regionally, the PCs are ahead in every region outside of Metro Toronto, with large leads in the GTHA (15 points), eastern Ontario (21 points), and the southwest (11 points). In Metro Toronto, the Liberals and PCs are statistically tied.
The PCs have a 20-point lead among men and a 7-point lead among women and lead in all age groups except for those under 30.
Since November 2022, impressions of Doug Ford have improved.
Today, 34% have a positive impression of the Premier (up 5 points) while 43% have a negative impression (down 2). 19% say their view is neutral while 4% are unsure.
We also asked about impressions of new NDP leader Marit Stiles. About equal numbers have a positive and negative impression with most saying they either have a neutral view (27%) or don’t know enough about her to say (38%).
When asked their view about some possible OLP leadership candidates (at the time it wasn’t clear the Bonnie Cromie might be interested, so we didn’t ask about her), all four individuals we tested have quite similar province-wide images. Most people either don’t know the individuals or have a neutral view.
While most Ontarians are aware of the story involving the Ford family and developers at a stag-and-doe and wedding this past summer, only 1 in 4 are following news about it closely.
When told about the story and asked whether it makes them feel more positive or more negative about Premier Ford, 8% say they feel more positive about him while 50% say they feel less positive. Those who are following the issue closely are more likely to react negatively.
Among those who said they voted PC in 2022, 70% say their impression is either more positive or it has had no impact while 30% say their impressions have become more negative, including 10% who say much more negative.
When asked specifically about their view on the provincial government’s plan to open up land in the Greenbelt for housing development, 22% support the plan, 49% oppose it and 29% say they neither support nor oppose it. About 1 in 3 of PC voters say they are opposed to the plan while a majority of Liberal and NDP supporters say they are opposed.
UPSHOT
Despite the conflict of interest allegations swirling around the Premier and his family, there doesn’t appear to have been much impact on the Premier’s image or support for the PC government. If an election was held today, the PCs would likely win another majority government. So far, almost all of the PC coalition is holding together and despite some PC voters feeling uncomfortable with the allegations, they don’t seem to be persuaded that the PCs and Doug Ford don’t deserve their support again.
As the Liberals get set to select a new leader, some of the possible candidates start with little province-wide name recognition – which is often the case for candidates running to lead a provincial party.
For the NDP, Marit Stiles begins her time as NDP leader with very much a blank slate. She’s not viewed negatively, which is a plus, but she’s also largely unknown. She’s a blank canvas to most people in the province.
The survey underscores both the resilience of Doug Ford and the potential risk if these allegations escalate and the development of parts of the Greenbelt becomes more salient. Right now, the Premier and the PCs are weathering this storm.
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 1,000 Ontario residents aged 18 and over on March 2 to 4, 2023.
A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, education, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This study was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
Last week, Abacus Data surveyed 700 adults living in Alberta and asked them several questions about their views and intentions as the provincial election approaches.
Here are the key takeaways from this research:
1 – The UCP and NDP are tied province-wide as undecideds increase.
35% of Albertans would vote UCP (down 5), 35% would vote NDP (down 3) and 5% would vote for the Alberta Party. 22% say they are undecided, up 6-points since February.
2- The UCP and NDP are tied among committed respondents – 45% to 45%.
The UCP vote share among committed voters is down 2 while the NDP vote share is consistent with our survey last month.
3 – The NDP and UCP are statistically tied in Calgary, the NDP is ahead by 19-points in Edmonton, while the UCP leads by 14-points outside of the two largest cities.
4- The NDP lead among those under 45 and women while the UCP is ahead among those 45 and old and men.
5 – There’s been a big increase in former UCP supporters who now say they are undecided. Among 2019 UCP voters, 65% say they would vote UCP today, 12% would vote NDP, and 20% are currently undecided.
6 – The percentage of Reluctant UCP voters – those who voted UCP in 2019 but today say they are supporting another party or are undecided – is up 3-points while those who are loyal to the UCP are down 3 percentage points.
7 – Impressions of Danielle Smith are largely unchanged from last month. 37% have a positive view of the Premier while 40% have a negative impression. For NDP leader Rachel Notley, her net favourable has declined. 39% have a favourable view of the NDP leader (down 4) while her negatives are up 2 to 39%.
THE UPSHOT
Since last month, the political landscape in Alberta hasn’t changed much but we do see a noticeable shift back towards the undecided category for many past UCP voters.
The NDP vote share is holding steady but we continue to see volatility among past UCP voters. Those Reluctant UCPers will decide the outcome of the provincial election.
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 700 Alberta adults from March 2 to 4, 2023.
A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.8%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Alberta’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
David Coletto is CEO and a founding partner of Abacus Data a full-service market research and strategy firm based in Ottawa and Toronto. With over a decade and a half of experience in the industry, David and his partners founded Abacus 12 years ago and since then David has become one of Canada’s most respected social researchers regularly commenting on politics, the labour market, and consumer behaviour.
He earned a PhD in Political Science from the University of Calgary in 2010 and is an adjunct professor at Carleton University. He is the host and producer of inFocus with David Coletto a podcast that explores the intersection of public opinion, politics, public policy, and consumer behaviour.
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
The whole “Canada feels broken” framing and the ensuing debate had us wondering whether Canadians are so down on the state of their country and whether there was any nuance on the subject. Luckily, David owns a polling firm and so we could dig a bit deeper into public attitudes about the subject.
Our hypothesis is that while many Canadians feel that Canada is broken, not all of them who do, blame government decisions for the state of the world. Why? We have just lived through an almost three-year global pandemic. Putin invaded Ukraine a year ago, causing energy and food prices to spike. The shortage economy – gripping most parts of the world – defined by supply chain shortages, a tight labour market, and general burnout among many workers is making life harder.
So we wanted to explore how Canadians are feeling in more depth, building off the work that Oksana and David did looking at the consumer mindset in Canada a few weeks ago.
A few questions we wanted to answer include:
Do Canadians think Canada has a good reputation globally? Would they rather live in Canada than elsewhere at the moment?
What are the specific pain points in the system that are causing Canadians anxiety?
Do people feel what’s broken is being caused by global factors or government decisions?
Do Canadians think Canada is better off or worse off than countries similar to it?
We just finished a national survey of 4,000 Canadian adults on Saturday, conducted online with a representative sample. In it, we dug a bit deeper into the whole “Canada feels broken” feeling.
We find that the analysis of public opinion right now is far more complicated and nuanced than the analysis about it has been so far.
Here’s what we found:
More Canadians are dissatisfied with how things are going in Canada. 1 in 3 Canadians is satisfied with the way things are going in Canada. 47% are dissatisfied. Few are very satisfied. This isn’t much different than the right direction/wrong track question pollsters (including us) often ask. People are feeling unhappy, grumpy, and anxious about the world. Whether it’s inflation, rising interest rates, a healthcare system in crisis, or a general sense that good customer service – from government to restaurants – is harder to come by these days.
Those in the Prairies and Conservatives are more dissatisfied, federal Liberal supporters far less so. Of note, Quebecers are the least likely to say they are dissatisfied with how things are going in Canada. Interestingly, younger Canadians more positive about Canada than older Canadians.
Canadians agree that a lot in Canada feels broken, but they also agree they wouldn’t want to live anywhere else. Using experimental design (splitting the sample randomly), Canadians were asked to evaluate how three of six statements.
Large majorities agree Canada deserves to have a great reputation and Canada has a great reputation globally and 70% would rather live in Canada than any other country in the world. The public has a positive assessment of our brand despite their satisfaction level.
At the same time, 65% agree “it feels like so many things in Canada are broken” and almost as many (60%) think that things that they used to expect to work in my life are not working as well as they used to.
So, things feel broken, but Canada is still the best place to be. Half even think that “given the state of the world today, things in Canada are going pretty well.” In other words, sure the world is messed up. We are in a state of permacrisis. Some of what is not working here is a global problem.
A reminder: 65% of Canadians feel things are broken but 49% also agree that comparatively speaking, things in Canada are going ok.
What is causing friction? A lot of things.
Certainly, healthcare – 66% say it’s worse today than a few years ago. About half think air travel, government services, the education system, and customer service generally are worse today than a few years ago. In short, about half think everything isn’t going that well.
However, and this is important nuance, except for healthcare, only about 1 in 4 think those things have gotten much worse. That difference in intensity is important.
Who’s to blame?
This is a critical question – especially when trying to understand the political implications. Do Canadians think government decisions are to blame or are making things worse for Canadians?
When we look at the percentage of Canadians who agree things in their life that they usually can count on aren’t working well, almost as many blame global factors (49%) as government decisions (51%). Of course, not everyone thinks things aren’t working well. When we put the two questions together, here’s what we get…
40% think things are working as well.
28% think things aren’t as good and it’s because of global factors.
32% think things aren’t as good, and it’s because of government decisions.
In other words, only about 1 in 3 Canadians feel things aren’t working and say its the government’s fault. The rest either are ok with how things are in their life or think their life is being messed up by global factors impacting everyone, everywhere.
But the political implications are important and our data suggest that if the “Canada feels broken” framing spreads, it could help the Conservatives and further harm the incumbent Liberals.
When we compare current vote intention across these three groups, we find the Liberals lead among the “global factors make my life crap” group and the “things are fine or better” group. Conservatives lead big among the “government decisions make my life crap” group.
So far though, most Canadians don’t feel that way. Yes, many feel things aren’t like they used to be – healthcare, customer service, etc. – but they aren’t universally blaming government decisions for it.
Do Canadians think Canada is better off or worse off than other comparable countries?
In many areas, half or so think worse off. But in every area – from interest rates, to economic growth, to the healthcare system – about half or more think Canada is doing better or as well as countries like Germany, France, or Japan. Most Canadians have perspective on the challenges we face and don’t think we are alone in facing them.
Once again – focus on those who say, “Canada is doing much worse than other countries”. They are the most aggrieved and upset. When we segment them out – they represent about 12% of the population or about 3.6 million people.
This group doesn’t like the federal Liberals. 72% strongly disapprove of the federal government’s performance. 70% really don’t like Justin Trudeau and only 9% of them voted Liberal in 2021 (47% voted Conservative, 10% voted People’s Party, and 19% say they didn’t vote at all). In all honesty, they probably would say Canada is broken, even if it wasn’t facing the challenges it is, because they don’t like the party or people in power.
What does all this mean?
These are certainly tough times for many people. Inflation and rising interest rates are squeezing household budgets. The healthcare system feels deeply unreliable and there’s a growing fear that social order is under threat. A lot of people are upset.
But we don’t think this data presents a picture of a population raging against the machine. Does it to you?
A lot of what we have come to expect to work consistently, does feel broken. The worse of the pandemic may be past us but in its wake, we have a shortage economy (supply chain and labour shortages), a pervasive feeling of burnout, and a very tight labour market. With a potential recession on the horizon, most people get that things are tough but they don’t necessarily think governments have caused the problem.
They do, however, expect them to try and solve the problems and that’s where the federal government has fallen short. There simply isn’t enough empathy and consistent communication about what they are doing to make things better.
Upshot
David’s take: Canada is a great place to live. And Canadians know and feel that. But they are not naive nor uncritical. That realism can help fuel real discussions about how to fix our problems. The feeling that Canada is ‘broken’ has, however, seeped into the public discourse and risks focusing us on our emotional reactions, not the real problems.
Richard’s take: Canada is not immune from populism and it is hard not to worry that there is a deep seated potential for Canadians to get caught up in the Canada is broken narrative. While only a minority currently blame government, that minority has the potential to reshape the electoral map and party system in the forthcoming elections.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 4,000 Canadian adults from February 9 to 18, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.6%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
From February 9 to 18, 2023, Abacus Data conducted a nationally representative survey of 4,000 Canadian adults. The survey asked several questions about the political landscape that we track as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.
Here’s what we found:
Today, 34% approve, and 49% disapprove of the performance of the federal government, a one-point drop in disapproval since the end of January. Disapporval of the government has hovered between 47% and 51% since the summer of 2022.
The desire for change is holding steady and is in line with the end of the 2021 campaign, although those wanting to see the Liberals re-elected are down 6 points compared with the end of the 2021 campaign. 51% of Canadians definitely want a change of government while 13% definitely want the Liberals re-elected.
Public feelings about Prime Minister Trudeau have remained relatively stable over the past few months. Today, the Prime Minister’s net favourable rating is -16 with 32% having a positive impression and 48% having a negative impression of him. Among Liberal supporters, his net rating is +73.
Over the past month, impressions of Pierre Poilievre have not changed much. His negatives are up a single point while his positives are steady. His net favourable rating is -4. Among Conservative supporters, his net rating is +71.
Jagmeet Singh’s negatives are down three since last month with 34% having a positive impression of him and 31% having a negative view. His net favourable is +3 nationally and +80 among NDP supporters.
FEDERAL VOTE INTENTION
As a way of capturing any shifts towards the undecided category, we are now reporting vote intention with and without undecided voters.
Among all Canadians, 30% would vote Conservative, 24% Liberal, 15% NDP, and 6% from the BQ. 17% say they are undecided.
If an election were held today, among committed voters, 37% would vote for the Conservative Party (unchanged from last month), 29% for the Liberal Party (down 2), 18% for the NDP and 7% for the BQ. These numbers are the exact same as our last poll at the end of January.
The Conservatives are ahead in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba. The Conservatives also have a small 3-point advantage in Ontario. In Quebec, the BQ is slightly ahead of the Liberals, although the Liberal vote has dropped over the past few weeks. Compared with the end of November 2022, Liberal support in Quebec is down 6 points and it is down 5 points since the end of January.
Looking at the largest urban regions in the country, the Liberals have a clear lead in Metro Toronto and are statistically tied with the Conservatives in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton region (not including the City of Toronto). The Conservatives have an 11-point lead in Metro Vancouver.
In Quebec, the Liberals are well ahead on the Island of Montreal and in Laval, but trail the BQ by 20-points in the communities surrounding Montreal (north and south shores).
When we compare current vote intention with reported vote in the last election, we can categorize Canadians into three categories – loyalists, switchers, and reluctants. Loyalists voted for the party in 2021 and say they will vote for the party now. Switchers voted for the party in 2021 but now say they would vote for another party. Reluctants voted for the party in 2021 but now say they are undecided.
When we compare the six main parties, we find that the Conservative Party is holding together its previous support the most (86% of past CPC supporters are staying with the CPC) while the People’s Party has lost almost half of its 2021 support to either another party (mainly the Conservatives) or to the undecided category.
The Liberals are holding about 3 in 4 of its past voters but have lost 14% to another party and 10% to the undecided group.
The Conservatives lead nationally because they are holding their 2021 coalition together the best and have gained support from other parties across the spectrum. Looking at the Conservative Party’s current support group – 78% are past Conservative supporters, 5% voted PPC last election, 4% are Liberal switchers, 2% come from the NDP and 1% are from the BQ. The remaining 10% say they didn’t vote in the 2021 election.
UPSHOT
According to David Coletto: “The overall political opinion environment hasn’t changed much over the past three weeks. The Conservatives continue to hold a lead nationally in our tracking – the largest the party has held since the 2015 election. In Quebec, Liberal support is down 5 points over the same period. If this persists, the path to re-election for the Liberals is far more daunting.
Despite some changes in regional vote intentions, the core indicators are all constant and unchanged including impressions of the leaders, approval of the government, and the overall mood of the country.
Stay tuned for some additional analysis on the broader mood of Canadians to be released with my colleague Richard Jenkins tomorrow.”
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 4,000 Canadian adults from February 9 to 18, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.6%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
Earlier this week, I finished a represented survey of adults living in the City of Toronto. All the research was done prior to last night’s news that admited to having had an “inappropriate” relationship with a woman who worked for him
This is the first wave of a quarterly study Abacus Data will be doing exploring the views, opinions, and experiences of those living in Canada’s largest city.
Here are some of the key takeaways from that survey:
Toronto residents are split on how they feel about how things are going in the city.
46% are satisfied while 50% are dissatisfied. Of note, those who are very dissatisfied with how things are going in Toronto are more than double the number who are very satisfied. Those living in Scarborough are less satisfied than those in other parts of the city while those living in North York and York are more likely to be satisfied.
Housing, crime, and homelessness are the top issues
When residents are shown a long list of issues and asked to pick the top issues facing the city at the moment, 54% put housing accessibility and affordability in their top 3 followed by crime and public safety at 53%, and homelessness at 35%. Another 27% rated drug use and mental health as a top issue, with the economy (25%), public transit (24%), poverty (22%), and traffic congestion (21%) all getting at least 1 in 5 rating them as a top issue.
There was little difference in reported top issue depending on where people live. But, those living in Old Toronto/East York were more likely to rate homeless as a top issue than those in the suburbs and those in the suburbs were slightly more likely to rate crime as a top issue.
More approve of Mayor John Tory’s job performance than disapprove
35% of Toronto residents approve of the job John Tory is doing as mayor while 30% disapprove. Another 30% say they neither approve nor disapprove.
When asked about his performance in specific areas, he gets good evaluations for managing city services like garbage collection and snow clearing, for working with other levels of government, for working with the city council, and for being open and transparent. A majority or more think he’s doing a good or acceptable job on all of them.
Areas where a majority or close to a majority think he’s performing poorly are housing affordability, homelessness and poverty, public safety, and crime, and traffic congestion and road maintenance.
Reaction to the 2023 City Budget is one of understanding
Among the 75% of residents who said they were aware of the 2023 budget in Toronto, 48% described it as acceptable, all things considered, 5% thought it’s good and makes the right choices, and 27% thought it was bad and makes wrong choices. 19% were unsure.
When people were told that the budget will raise property taxes by 5.5% in 2023, 54% feel the tax increase is higher than it should be while 31% feel it is justified given inflation and the need to fund city services. Homeowners are about as divided as the population as a whole – 58% think the increase is too high while 34% think it is justified.
Mixed Opinion about John Tory’s use of the “Strong Mayor” powers
The survey as residents if they support or oppose the mayor using the so-called “strong mayor powers” that the province permitted the Mayor of Toronto to use. Overall, 27% support the use of the powers, 27% are opposed, and 27% say they neither support or oppose their use. Another 19% are unsure.
Safety concerns causing many to use the TTC less
The survey also explored residents’ views about the TTC and whether recent safety incidents were impacting perceptions about the system and its use.
Overall, 46% of residents say they use the TTC daily or a few days a week. 15% never use the TTC. Younger residents and those living in Old Toronto/East York are more frequent users of the public transit system.
When asked if they are using the TTC more or less often over the past few weeks, 1 in 3 TTC users reports they are using the TTC less often than they typically would.
When asked, unprompted, why they are using the TTC less, 46% say it is because of safety concerns, 32% report not needing to use it as much, and 10% say it is because they are working from home.
Over four in ten residents believe the TTC is pretty or very unsafe while 33% describe it as safe. Another 26% say the system is neither safe nor unsafe. Among those who use the TTC daily, 45% think it’s safe while 37% think it’s unsafe.
When asked whether specific aspects of the TTC have gotten better or worse over the past few months, 58% think personal safety has gotten worse – the highest of any other aspect.
THE UPSHOT
This is our first quarterly survey of Toronto residents so we are unable to say whether views and impressions have changed, but the view of Torontonians about their city is rather mixed at the moment. About half think things are going well while another half think things aren’t that good. The top concerns are focused on housing, crime, and homelessness – three issues that Mayor Tory gets the worst evaluations on.
Concerns about safety on the TTC are likely impacting ridership. About 14% of Toronto residents say they are riding the TTC less because they are worried about their safety and about half describe the TTC as unsafe, including a third of those who use it daily.
The broader concern about crime and public safety is likely growing and will become a pressure point for local, provincial, and federal leaders.
Despite a lot of debate about John Tory’s use of the “strong mayors powers”, the public isn’t as engaged nor as upset as many commentators. 27% support the use of the powers while 27% oppose it. The rest are either indifferent or don’t know much about it.
John Tory’s first few months of his 3rd term have not been without some drama. But his public approval rating is solid, people aren’t rejecting the 2023 budget outright, and people seem to feel things in control. But challenges remain and may become worse if perceptions about public safety continue to worsen.
This survey is part of a new quarterly omnibus survey Abacus Data will be doing in Toronto. For more information about our work in Toronto, please get in touch.
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 1,000 adults living in Toronto from February 3 to 7, 2023.
A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform.
These partners are typically double optin survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/3.1%, 19 times out 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Toronto’s population according to age, gender, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
Earlier this week, I finished a represented survey of adults living in the City of Toronto. On that survey, I asked people how they would vote if a federal election was held at the time.
The survey finds the federal Liberals have a commanding lead in the City of Toronto, leading the Conservatives by 17 points. The Liberals get 44% followed by the Conservatives at 27% and the NDP at 18%.
Regionally across the city, the Liberals lead in every former municipality with larger leads in Etobicoke and the Old City of Toronto/East York. The Conservatives are more competitive in Scarborough while the NDP gets its highest support in Old Toronto/East York.
This survey is part of a new quarterly omnibus survey Abacus Data will be doing in Toronto. For more information about our work in Toronto, please get in touch.
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 1,000 adults living in Toronto from February 3 to 7, 2023.
A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform.
These partners are typically double optin survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/3.1%, 19 times out 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Toronto’s population according to age, gender, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
At the end of last year, I shared our first deep dive into the Alberta political opinion environment in the lead-up to this year’s provincial election. That survey found the NDP leading the UCP by 9 points among decided voters with 25% undecided overall. Our latest survey – conducted from February 1 to 6 – finds a shift in views and intended behaviour.
Here are the key takeaways from this research:
1. The UCP has taken the lead over the NDP province-wide and now has a marginal two-point lead among decided voters 47% to 45%. Those undecided in their vote intention dropped 9 points since early December. This is much more of a gain for the UCP than a loss for the NDP as the NDP’s vote share when undecideds are included hasn’t changed from December.
2. In December, 22% of past UCP voters were undecided when asked who they would vote for. Today, that’s 12%. Almost all of them that made up their mind now say they would back the UCP again.
3. Calgary remains the battleground and education is a strong predictor of vote. The NDP is well ahead in Edmonton while the UCP is well ahead outside of the province’s two largest cities. In Calgary, the NDP has a marginal two-point lead over the UCP. It remains deadlocked in Calgary. The NDP leads among those with a university degree while the UCP is well ahead among those with other educational attainment levels.
4. The overall mood of the province has improved. Today 1 in 3 think the province is headed in the right direction (still not great) but up 7 points since December.
5. The top issues remain the cost of living, healthcare, the economy, taxes, and housing. UCP supporters are more likely to rate the cost of living, the economy, taxes, and standing up for Alberta against the federal government as top issues than NDP supporters. NDP supporters are more likely to rate healthcare, housing, and climate change as top issues.
6. When we ask people which party they trust most on several issues, the UCP has a big advantage on defending oil and gas workers, standing up to Ottawa, keeping taxes low, managing the economy, and attracting business to the province. The NDP has an advantage on healthcare, climate change, and reducing inequality.
7. Impressions of Danielle Smith have improved since December. Today, 37% have a positive view of the Premier while 41% have a negative view for a net rating of -4. In December, her rating was -12.
For Rachel Notley, her negatives are up slightly, but more people continue to have a positive view of the NDP leader than a negative view. Her net favourable rating is +6, down from +10 in December.
8. Those who think Danielle Smith has been a better or similar premier to Jason Kenney has increased. Today, 50% of Albertans feel that Danielle Smith has been better or about the same as Jason Kenney, up 9 points since December. Among past UCP voters, those feeling she’s been better than Kenney is up 5-points to 44%. 23% of past UCP voters feel she has been worse then Kenney.
9. In the last report, I identified a key segment of the electorate called Reluctant UCPers. They are folks who voted UCP in 2019 but now say they are undecided or would vote for another party. Back in December, that group represented 16% of the electorate. Today, it’s down to 13%. Local UCPers – those who voted UCP in 2019 and support the party today – is up 5 points to 32%.
THE UPSHOT
In a short period of time, Danielle Smith and the UCP have successfully and positively shifted public opinion in Alberta. More people view Danielle Smith positively and the 9-point gap in vote intention that we measured in December has been entirely erased. The environment remains competitive however and the election outcome is far from certain. Calgary remains the battleground where this election will likely be won or lost.
The survey data clearly points to the impact that issue framing and salience will have on voting behaviour. If the next election is fundamentally about economic management, taxes, or standing up to Ottawa – the UCP is in a stronger position to capitalize on those issues. If, however, healthcare is the dominant issue – the NDP is much better positioned to win. This might explain why Danielle Smith chose not to pick a fight with Justin Trudeau while in Ottawa this week for the healthcare talks. Instead, she would be wise to focus on economic competitiveness, taxes, and being seen as the best able to stand up for Alberta’s interests.
As of now, Danielle Smith appears less risky than she did to many in December. The UCP’s effort to rebuild its landslide-creating coalition is bearing fruit. There are still plenty of Reluctant UCPers to convert, but they are much closer to locking in re-election than appeared when we last measured opinions in December.
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 1,000 Alberta adults from February 1 to 6, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Alberta’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
David Coletto is CEO and a founding partner of Abacus Data a full-service market research and strategy firm based in Ottawa and Toronto. With over a decade and a half of experience in the industry, David and his partners founded Abacus 12 years ago and since then David has become one of Canada’s most respected social researchers regularly commenting on politics, the labour market, and consumer behaviour.
He earned a PhD in Political Science from the University of Calgary in 2010 and is an adjunct professor at Carleton University. He is the host and producer of inFocus with David Coletto a podcast that explores the intersection of public opinion, politics, public policy, and consumer behaviour.
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
