Canada’s political mood tentative as spring arrives

Listen to David Coletto’s new podcast inFocus with David Coletto

We just completed a national survey of 2,000 Canadian adults (from March 12 to 17). Here’s what the survey found:

DIRECTION OF THE COUNTRY

By a narrow margin, more Canadians feel the country is going in the right direction (42%) rather than the wrong direction (38%). While that number is stable with our last wave, we continue to see the Biden election causing an uptick in feelings about the path the US is on.

These national numbers in Canada obscure some differences that are worth noting.

• Among those under 45, the plurality likes the way things are going. Over that age the reverse is true.

• Everywhere but in the Prairie provinces, solid pluralities are happy with the direction of things in Canada.

• Those with high school education are unhappy, those with more education see things more positively.

• Those who’ve already had a shot of Covid-19 vaccine are 55% right direction/32% wrong direction. Those who say they will never take a shot are 21% right direction/68% wrong direction.

Because of the unusual circumstances of a global pandemic, we began asking people who felt the country was going in the wrong direction if they felt that this was more due to governments in Canada making the wrong choices or because of factors beyond Canada’s control. What we find is that 73% of the “wrong direction” respondents blame Canadian governments, while 27% don’t.

Blending the questions together provides a clearer indication of how the “right direction/wrong track” question relates to political choice: 42% say right direction, 10% say wrong direction but not the fault of governments, and 28% say Canada is going in the wrong direction because of government choices.

CURRENT VOTING INTENTION

If an election were held now, the Liberals would win 33% of the vote, in line with their result in 2019, the Conservatives 29%, a loss of five points, the NDP 19% (up 3 points from 2019), the Green Party 8% (up 1.5 points) and the BQ at 27% in Quebec (down 5 points).

Regionally, we see a tight three-way race in BC, wide leads for the Conservatives in the Prairies, a 13-point lead for the Liberals in Ontario, a 7-point lead for the Liberals over the BQ in Quebec, and a 21-point lead for the Liberals in Atlantic Canada.

Among those who have already had a Covid-19 shot, the Liberals have a 15-point lead. Among those who want to take it as soon as possible, the Liberals lead by 14. Among those who say they will never take the shot, the Conservatives lead by 26-points.

LEADER IMPRESSIONS

Justin Trudeau enjoys a positive impression among 37% and finds negative impressions among 38%, for a net score of -1. His net score is -10 in BC, -32 in Alberta, +6 in Ontario, +4 in Quebec and +27 in Atlantic Canada.

Erin O’Toole enjoys a positive impression among 22% and finds negative impressions among 31%, for a net score of -9. His net score is -11 in BC, +5 in Alberta, -15 in Ontario, -10 in Quebec and -13 in Atlantic Canada.

Jagmeet Singh enjoys a positive impression among 34% and finds negative impressions among 24% for a net +10. His net score is +1 in BC, +7 in Alberta, +15 in Ontario, +5 in Quebec and +20 in Atlantic Canada.

DESIRE FOR CHANGE

A total of 38% say it’s definitely time for a change (39% last month), which is 14 points lower than the firm desire for change at the end of the 2019 campaign.  Another 30% say “it would be good to have change but doesn’t matter to me that much”, up 3 points from last month and 13 points higher than at the end of the 2019 campaign.

17% definitely want to see the Liberals re-elected, and 15% prefer to see them re-elected but don’t feel strongly about it.  What has changed is the intensity of desire for change, not the breadth of that desire.

Among those who definitely want change voting intentions do not coalesce around a single choice: 54% would vote Conservative, 25% NDP, 8% BQ, 7% Green, and 5% for the People’s Party of Canada. Seeing less intensity of desire for change is potentially a major challenge for the Conservatives if they are to improve upon their 2019 result.

Something that may cause pause for the Liberals is that among their 2019 voters, only 49%  definitely want to see the party re-elected, and another 25% say they would prefer that outcome, but don’t feel strongly about it.  That leaves about a quarter of the 2019 coalition leaning towards a desire for change.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “Canadians are mostly suspending engagement in partisan political choice right now, as they continue to grind through the pandemic and look towards a better future. While the balance of data suggests the Liberals could win another mandate if an election were held now, possibly a larger one if the split in Quebec is as we see it in this wave, there is also a bit of softness in the numbers for the government. The NDP and its leader Jagmeet Singh are finding space for progressive conversation, especially among younger voters, something that will no doubt attract attention from the Liberals as they map an electoral strategy.

The Conservatives on the other hand are struggling, at risk of losing touch with too many centrist voters in central and eastern Canada, and also watching some of their base shift to populist conservative alternatives. Mr. O’Toole will likely know that he needs to shake up his approach if he wants to gain traction, increase the intensity of desire for change, and make the case that the Conservatives are the best alternative.

Right now, Conservatives are at risk of being the 4th choice among voters under 30 – a prospect that should be of real concern. The party cannot keep battling internally on issues like abortion, transgender rights, whether and how to act on climate change, and at the same time have little or nothing to say about housing affordability, the gig economy and attracting next generation economic investment and expect to resonate with younger voters.”

According to David Coletto: “Not much has changed from our late survey suggesting we may be in a period where political views remain steady, especially as the risk of a third COVID wave increases and the public focuses on the implications of that.

A few things stand out to me in these numbers.

First is the increase in vote share for the NDP and Greens. Back in November, 21% of decided voters said they would vote either NDP (15%) or Green (5%). Today, it is 27% (NDP 19%, Green 8%). The Liberals should be concerned about this as a weaker Conservative Party has not translated into a higher Liberal vote share. The Greens and NDP are finding wide support among younger Canadians (48% would vote either NDP or Green), a demographic critical to a future Liberal majority.

Second, the Conservatives can’t count on an enthusiastic base like in 2019. Given that the Conservative vote share has slowly dropped over the past few months, from 32% to 29%, the party will need an energized base to make up for its weakness in the broader electorate. The problem with that strategy requires people to really dislike the incumbents. We see far fewer people who are angry at Mr. Trudeau and far fewer who are strongly motivated to want to kick out the Liberals.”

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ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

Find out more about what we are doing to help clients respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 2,000 Canadian adults from March 12 to 17, 2021. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Canadian PoliticsCOVID-19MediaPolls

How can Canada’s Conservative Party grow support? A gap analysis

Listen to David Coletto’s new podcast inFocus with David Coletto

With the Conservative Party’s policy convention starting today, I took a quick look at some of our recent surveys to understand the opportunities and risks for the party heading into a likely federal election. For all of 2020 and 2021, the party’s vote share has hovered in a narrow band between 29% to 32%.

In our most recent survey (more details out tomorrow), 23% of all respondents would vote Conservative – half the number who say they are open to voting Conservative (46%).

In this analysis, I focus on the 23% who say they are open to voting Conservative but are either supporting another party now or say they are undecided. I compare them to current Conservative Party supporters throughout.

Here are five key findings:

1- Potential Conservative voters are much younger than current supporters. 57% of potentials are under 45 compared with only 31% of current supporters.

Implication: The party needs to find a way to appeal to younger voters. Fights over abortion and a perception the party doesn’t care about climate change won’t help. In fact, in our most recent survey, the Conservatives are polling 4th, behind the Greens among those under 30 and have been trending down for three straight months.

2- Potential Conservative voters are far more diverse than current supporters. Currently, 14% of Conservative supporters self-identify as a member of a racialized group. Among potential supporters, 29% are from a racialized group.

Implication: Under Stephen Harper’s leadership the party was able to appeal to some racialized Canadians. It needs to figure out how to do it again, especially since Canada’s population will continue to become more diverse over time and the key ridings around Toronto and Vancouver are the most diverse in the country.

3- Anti-immigrant sentiment is higher among current supporters, but far fewer potential Conservative voters feel the same way.  While 42% of Conservative voters think that immigrants are a burden on the country, only 29% of potential Conservatives feel the same way.

Implication: The party cannot be seen as anti-immigrant. Being inclusive and open to diversity is key to grow but there are some in the base who want to see fewer immigrants admitted to Canada.

4- Climate change presents the greatest challenge for the Conservatives to grow. Only 1 in 3 Conservative supporters think climate change is a crisis compared with more than half among potential supporters. 18% of Conservative supporters think climate change is a hoax, more than 4 times the number among potential supporters.

Implication: Conservatives need to be seen as serious about climate change. Past research we’ve done showed that few thought Andrew Scheer took the issue seriously. Erin O’Toole can’t fall into the same trap. The problem is much of his base doesn’t put climate change anywhere near the top of its priorities.

5- Potential Conservative supporters don’t dislike Mr. Trudeau as nearly as much as Conservative supporters do. While only 14% of potential Conservatives have a very negative view of Mr. Trudeau, 49% of current supporters do.

Implication: Dislike for Mr. Trudeau was an effective motivator for Conservatives in 2019. Turnout spiked in many Conservative seats but didn’t help expand the base where it mattered – suburban Toronto and Vancouver. The public today is far less angry with Mr. Trudeau than they were in 2019. Anger alone won’t help the Conservatives win.

THE UPSHOT

The Conservatives have a path to victory whenever an election comes. But to win, it has to find a way to appeal to voters who think and look differently from those who currently support the party. Much has changed since the last time the Conservatives won a majority. The country is more diverse, more urban, and concerned about issues that weren’t as big priorities.

Despite winning more votes than the Liberals in 2019, the Conservatives came up well short of winning the most seats.

Based on what I see in the data, the party can win under two scenarios: (1) people are so angry with Mr. Trudeau that they default to the Conservatives or (2) the Conservatives find a way to appeal to potential supporters and convince them they have a better vision and plan for the country.

Based on current data, scenario 1 looks untenable. The only path, in my view, is to find a way to appeal to a broader coalition without alienating the base. No easy task for Mr. O’Toole but I don’t see any other way for him to become Prime Minister.

Don’t miss my new podcast!

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ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

Find out more about what we are doing to help clients respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

COVID-19MediaPolls

Everything & nothing has changed. The pandemic one year later

While reflecting on the pandemic anniversary this week I came across a Twitter account from the UK which recently started posting news articles everyday from exactly one year prior. Some of the headlines seemed old, like the ones abter lockdown measures, were eerily similar to articles I’ve seen published just a few weeks ago.

After a year of living in the pandemic I think most of us could say our own experience has followed a similar pattern. The pandemic has changed all of our lives so drastically, but at the same time we feel stuck living in a Groundhog Day situation.

Most Canadians feel the same way. The top words used to describe the time since the pandemic began remained relatively unchanged between September 2020 and February 2021. ‘Stress’ and ‘bored’ are jostling for the top position, something that seems unique to a year long pandemic.

At Abacus Data we’ve been tracking many things related to the pandemic, like level of concern with the virus and job market uncertainty, but  trendlines aside I wanted to take a deeper dive into some storylines I’ve been seeing and some hypotheses I’ve had and see what our data has to say. In this post, I’ve included some newly released data on some questions I’ve been tracking on what the pandemic means long-term and some of the changes it could bring.

The findings below are from two general population surveys, one fielded in September six months after the pandemic began, and the other in late January, 11 months since the start.

1.Community and how we build social connections has undoubtedly been one area of our lives where we’ve felt big impacts from the pandemic.

Back when the pandemic began there was a lot of talk about coming together as a community and supporting each other. It seems as though six months into the pandemic, very few Canadians were feeling that sentiment, and a year in the disconnection is even stronger. There was a 16-point jump between September and February 2020 among those who say they feel disconnected from both their own network and their wider community.

A year into the pandemic it seems our sentiment of disconnection is on an upwards trajectory. Back in September, there were some variations based on income, age, gender, whether you’re a parent or not, and your living situation. But any notable differences based on these demographics are relatively non-existent now. We are all feeling distant from those around us.

Whether this is due to pandemic fatigue, the lockdown measures preventing us from physically seeing with many people or just feeling like the pandemic experience has left us further apart than before, there are consequences. In the long-term it has the ability to impact our mental health, but in the short-term as we weather the tail end of the pandemic, messages used by public health telling us band together for our communities may no longer be as salient.

2. The pandemic has shocked our mental health- and has the ability to change our conversations about the topic.

The pandemic fundamentally changed the conversations we have about mental health. While there is no doubt still stigma about having mental health discussions, I’ve seen a lot more open conversation about the importance of reaching out, in the context of the pandemic creating life-altering consequences for our lives and increasing the loneliness that many of us feel.

This increase in conversations about how to seek out help for mental health struggles may be having an impact on some of the most severe statistics. British Columbia, Alberta and Saskatchewan all recently released preliminary data suggesting that death by suicides decreased in 2020 compared to previous years.

But there are plenty of other indicators that suggest there is still cause for concern and an opportunity to continue the conversation about healthy mental health. We may be avoiding the most serious consequences of poor mental health, but there are more Canadians than ever before that are seeking this kind of help.

One in two Canadians say their mental health is worse off since the start of the pandemic. And among those who say worse off, 37% expect long-term impacts to their mental health.

Feeling worse off is much more common among women than men, and among younger Canadians compared to older Canadians.

Data from services that provide mental health support say the same. Kids Help Phone has received double their usual call volume in 2020, compared to 2019. And the most recent Ontario Student Drug Use and Health Survey from the Canadian Association of Mental Health (CAMH) has identified the highest level of suicidal ideation in youth since the study’s inception since 2001.

The pandemic has opened the doors for more conversation on mental health because mental health struggles are more frequent. But at the same time mental health struggles are more frequent, so we need to keep those doors open and more seriously focus on solutions.

3. There hasn’t been one universal pandemic experience- this highlights differences in our community and create opportunities to unite but also divide.

Finally, we know that everyone has experienced the pandemic differently, but a majority of Canadians say that inequality existed long before the pandemic- and the pandemic was just a driving force for exposing it.

Our data also reflects some of the most commonly discussed inequalities in the news- many were present before, but the pandemic challenged our ability to overcome them and in some cases, set us back.

On the she-cession, women are much more likely to say the pandemic has had a negative impact on their career (31% compared to 24% among men). Among younger Canadians (those 18 to 29) the divide is much, much worse. 46% of young women say their career path will be worse off, compared to just 24% of men the same age.

Young Canadians are another group that’s been hit particularly hard, having seen soaring unemployment numbers at the start of the pandemic, and the numbers still slow to recover. Affordability has been a growing concern for younger generations, but the decline of jobs and rise in house prices this past year has pushed this to the limits. Among this group, 56% have used at least one of the following financial supports since the start of the pandemic: mortgage payment deferral, additional student loan, pay day loan, line of credit, refinancing assets or relying more on credit cards. This is 20 points higher than those 30 and older.

It seems as though those who were more likely to experience challenges prior to the pandemic are more likely to experience challenges because of it. A majority of Canadians agree the inequalities from the pandemic are linked to inequalities prior, but it presents two possible scenarios. One where governments can use the pandemic as an impetus to bring support and change to groups that needed it long before the pandemic, or the second where a divide grows between those who’ve been facing these inequalities for some time and those who have not.

THE UPSHOT

According to Oksana Kishchuk: Everything and nothing has changed in the past year. We’ve been pulled from our usual social connections, brought together through Zoom chats, but then grown distant again when after a while a video call just isn’t enough. We’ve been having more conversations about mental health, yet more of us are dealing with it’s struggles and still a lack of resources to address them.  We’ve faced economic catastrophe all around with many industries impacted, yet those who faced struggles before are still the ones bearing the brunt of the consequences.

The pandemic has presented us with an opportunity to address challenges we’ve been facing for a while, but now they are bigger than they were before. There is opportunity to use this as a moment to reset, or the chance that the pandemic will just incite a greater divide. We will be watching and tracking closely to see how it falls.

And don’t miss any of our research and analysis, plus get our weekly Worth A Look newsletter. Sign up today.

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 2,500 Canadians aged 18 and over from September 23rd to September 29th, 2020, and  2,000 Canadians aged 18 and over from January 29th to February 3rd , 2021.

In both surveys a random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

For the September 2020 survey the margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.9%, 19 times out of 20.

For the February 2021 survey the margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.

Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This poll was conducted and paid for by Abacus Data.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

Find out more about what we are doing to help clients respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

COVID-19MediaPolls

The Silent Wave: Those with Chronic Disease/Major Illness, Their Caregivers & COVID-19

Earlier this year we conducted a study for HealthPartners, an organization connecting Canadians to Canada’s most respected and well-known health charities. The online survey fielded to a general population sample of n=3,000 and included those with chronic disease/major illnesses and their caregivers. The purpose of the study was to understand the impacts of the pandemic on these individuals and the role for health charities.  

The COVID-19 pandemic has had an immeasurable impact on all of us including our health. Many of us have experienced changes to our physical and/or mental health in the past 11 months- whether we’ve had a close encounter with the virus itself or not. But the pandemic hasn’t touched all of us equally.

One such group that has felt unique and devastating impacts is Canadians with chronic disease/major illnesses and their caregivers. These individuals have lost access to services and supports they need most, and the impacts we’ve all felt from isolation are all the more stressful for these individuals.

On their own, the impacts felt by this group are worthy of concern. But they also hint at the long-term challenges to our healthcare system overall and are a warning signal about the need to start thinking of these challenges now.

1.Redirecting resources from chronic disease to COVID-19 in the healthcare system is having a direct impact on treatment plans. Two thirds of those living with chronic disease/major illness have faced some level of difficulty in accessing their care since the start of the pandemic.

This includes 43% who’ve had treatment for their chronic disease/major illness cancelled, postponed or both. 30% have experienced a cancelation regarding screening and diagnostic appointments.

2. Reallocating resources is already causing long-term consequences for individuals with chronic disease/major illness, including their mental health. Many see a direct link between their inability to access programs and services and their declining quality of life and the progression of their illness.

45% of those with a chronic disease/major illness say these delays and cancellations are having a direct impact on their quality of life. 50% say the inability to access services due to the pandemic has had a negative impact on their mental health.

These numbers are high. What was presumed to be a temporary reallocation of resource last March has been in effect in some way for the past 11 months. Most of us probably could have predicted some consequences from extending these measures but these numbers suggest some of the worst-case consequences are coming true. And still without regular access to programs and services for treatment, these numbers will likely worsen.

The direct impacts of cancelled and postponed treatments on mental health are notable in of themselves, but they are only compounding on pre-existing mental health implications of isolation. Many individuals with chronic disease/major illness are taking additional precautions because they are at a greater risk of contracting the virus, isolating themselves further.

3. Caregivers too have faced unprecedented challenges during this time. They have had a front-row seat to the experiences of their loved ones, and they have been left to carry a larger burden of care during this time.

Most caregivers truly feel that the burden of responsibility has been placed on them more so during the pandemic than before. This added responsibility is causing caregivers to feel more overwhelmed about these responsibilities (62%), and some even go as far to say that the additional work has create a strain on their own mental health (53%).

This has resulted in many caregivers giving more time, money, and energy towards the care of their loved one. 51% say they have seen impacts to their finances, as a result of the additional care they have taken on.

4. Changes to care available within the system have resulted in a surge in demand for intermediate support services, including those from health charities who have stepped up to meet this unprecedented need. Those with chronic disease/major illnesses could not have made it this far without the support provided by organizations like health charities.

Just because services have been put on hold doesn’t mean that the demand for this care has disappears as well. Instead, large numbers of those with chronic disease/major illnesses are turning to support from services they didn’t access prior to the pandemic. A third (34%) say they are relying more on support services outside the system that they did not use before the pandemic, including those offered by health charities.

That increase in demand doesn’t include those who were already accessing these services prior to the pandemic representing a significant shift in the burden on these supports.

5. The vaccine roll-out will likely ease the direct burden of COVID-19 on the healthcare system, but it won’t change the demand for support services and a need for treatment to make up for lost time. In fact, it may be the start of a surge in demand for these services.

Throughout the pandemic many of those with chronic disease/major illnesses and their caregivers alike have said they are relying more on intermediate supports. And this shift in services is predicted to have consequences well into the future. 56% of Canadians living with chronic illness/major disease say the government’s decision to postpone treatment will have implications for their health, 20% say these will be long-term.

Caregivers have also signalled they will be seeking more services once it is safe to do so. Once the pandemic is over, 71% of caregivers plan to access more services for their loved ones within the healthcare system, compared to pre-pandemic levels.

THE UPSHOT

According to Oksana Kishchuk: Canadians with chronic disease/major illnesses and their caregivers are already facing serious consequences from the pandemic. Without access to treatments, they are leaning on intermediate support programs, like the ones offered by health charities, and relying on their caregivers to navigate these changing needs.

This is having real impacts on the lives of these individuals, including their mental health. In the short-term, we need to ensure that these individuals are able to access the support services that are still available to them during this time, specifically programs that can support their mental health needs, as they wait for the healthcare system to resume as normal.

We also need to start thinking about long-term actions too. Canadians overall are well aware of this- the long-term impacts to the healthcare system is emerging as one of the biggest overall pandemic concerns. And given the extent of these challenges, a near majority support collaborative approach. 91% say it’s important that the federal government work with health charities to help navigate and solve the immediate strains on the healthcare system.

The long-term consequences of the pandemic on those with chronic disease/ major illness should be concerning for everyone. And it’s something we need to start talking about now. Understanding the role of health charities and how they can be best supported is a good first step.

And don’t miss any of our research and analysis, plus get our weekly Worth A Look newsletter. Sign up today.

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 3,000 Canadian residents aged 18 and older from January 9th to January 13th, 2020. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.7%, 19 times out of 20.

The sample size of those with chronic disease/major illness was 1,144 respondents. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.8%, 19 times out of 20.

The sample size for caregivers of those with chronic disease/major illness was 524 respondents. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 4.2%, 19 times out of 20.

This survey was paid for by HealthPartners.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

Find out more about what we are doing to help clients respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 2,000 Canadians aged 18 and over from January 29 to February 3, 2021. A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This poll was conducted and paid for by Abacus Data.

COVID-19MediaPolls

Abacus Data is hiring a Field Specialist

Location: Ottawa, Toronto, or Anywhere in Canada (Remote work is a possibility)

Compensation: Salaried position with a salary range from $50,000 to $55,000 depending on experience along with a performance bonus and health benefits

Term: Permanent

Expected start date: May 2021

Abacus Data is expanding and we’re looking for someone who is excited to learn and grow in a fast-paced, dynamic work environment. If you’re early in your career, curious to learn new things, thoughtful, detail-oriented, and most importantly, friendly, this could be a great fit for you.

We are looking for a team member to join our field and analysis team. Working with our Field Manager and research team leads, you will be responsible for programming surveys, working with datasets, managing samples, and helping build beautiful and impactful reports and presentations.

As an ideal candidate, you have some background in social research, having taken a class or two in university or college. But more importantly, you want to learn and grow in a job that will expose you to all aspects of our work. We want a team member who loves to solve problems, find creative ways of doing things, and likes checking off to-do lists.

Responsibilities:
• Support the field manager in programming surveys, coordinating logistics for qualitative research, fielding sample, testing surveys, coordinating translation, managing data sets, and building presentations and report charts/tables.
• Support the research team with initial data analysis and report building

Requirements:
• Problem solver who wants to learn and grow in a dynamic, fast-paced environment
• Prior research experience is an asset, but not a requirement.
• An analytical mind, comfortable with numbers and data.
o Advanced math or data software skills are not required but would be an asset.
• Clear evidence of being detail-oriented, with a focus on delivery and error-free work.
• Ability to work with minimal supervision
• University or college degree/diploma in a related field.
• Bilingualism (English and French) is not a requirement but is an asset.
• HTML experience is not a requirement but is an asset.

About Abacus Data Inc.
We are the only firm that helps organizations respond to the unprecedented threats of generational change and technological disruption.

Founded in 2010, Abacus Data is an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We work with brands and organizations such as Shaw Communications, the Canadian Bankers Association, the Mining Association of Canada, Food & Consumer Products of Canada, NAV Canada, the Canadian Real Estate Association, Teck, Imperial Oil, Nestle Waters, Google, the Air Canada Pilots Association, NUPGE, HealthPartners, the Paramedic Association of Canada, the Canadian Pharmacists Association, and the Canadian Health Food Association.

We also work closely with Summa Strategies Canada and spark*advocacy to deliver the highest quality, data-driven strategic advice in Canada and North America.
Our vision is to be Canada’s premier data-based strategy firm with a reputation for outstanding customer service, creative thinking, and innovative methods. We will do that by working harder, being more creative, delivering more value to our clients, while doing it all with a smile.

For more information about Abacus Data, visit our website at www.abacusdata.ca.
If you think you’re the right candidate for this task, please send a cover letter and CV to David Coletto at david@abacusdata.ca – March 25, 2021 at 5pm ET. Only those selected for the next round of the process will be contacted.

Media

The Reno Boom: How 1 in 2 Canadians are Investing in Home Renovations during the Pandemic

When the COVID-19 pandemic began, daily life as we knew it ground to a halt. Vacations were canceled, reunions were postponed, and while the world outside clamoured to cope with the new realities of COVID-19, inside their four walls, Canadian families had an opportunity to reset and use this time to adapt to the ‘new normal.’

In the same way that staring at our own faces on Zoom calls all day has led to a boom in skincare and cosmetic procedures, all the time spent under the same roof has compelled a surge in home renovations. A well-designed, purpose-built home office has never felt more important (just like that nice background in all those video meetings) and for some Canadians, fewer social outings and less time commuting has afforded them the time (and money) they needed to actually tackle those renovations.

At Abacus Data, we wanted to know how many Canadians have undertaken a DIY or paid renovation project in the past year. We surveyed 1,500 Canadians, and here is what we found:

1- Almost 1 in 2 Canadians have already done or are planning to do home renovations during the pandemic.

Many Canadians have looked into doing home renovations during the pandemic, and almost 1 in 4 have already done some upgrades.

2. A majority of homeowners have already done or are planning to do renovations.

For Canadians aged 30 to 44, half have already done or are planning renovations to their homes. For Canadians who own a home, almost 1 in 3 have already done renovations (30%) or are planning to (25%). Those in rural communities are more likely to have done or are planning to do home renovations than those living in urban or suburban communities – likely because homeownership rates are higher outside of larger cities.

3. Canadians want multipurpose spaces that are personalized and increase home value.

With most people spending more time at home, 8 in 10 Canadians want renovations for comfort so that they are relaxed within their space. Another driver for renovations is functionality. The closure of gyms, offices, and recreational centers may have led to 9 in 10 Canadians wanting a multifunctional space with those added amenities.

This prolonged period of working from home has led to 6 in 10 Canadians believing they now have more time to plan home renovations than before.

4. Half of Canadian homeowners are looking to increase property value through renovations.

Looking specifically at homeowners, it becomes clear that there are high levels of interest in renovating a property to increase value.

In a RE/MAX report published March 8, 2021, the vice president of RE/MAX Ontario-Atlantic Canada termed the housing market as an “affordability crisis”, with demand at an all-time high and inventory levels very low. He attributed this to unprecedented price growth, lowinterest rates, and an increase in household savings, which has resulted in Canadians increasingly investing in real estate.

Our data corroborate this claim. Home upgrades are a direct trigger to increase property value, and Canadians are fully participating in this movement. The areas with the most support include Ontario (57%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (57%) and British Columbia (54%).

In regions such as the Greater Toronto Area, 3 in 5 homeowners are looking to renovate their property to increase value. The same RE/MAX report suggests Toronto is the hottest Canadian housing market, and homeowners are taking advantage of this opportunity.

5. Canadians are diversifying their investment across their homes.

Canadians are choosing a wide array of home renovations like bedrooms (36%), washrooms (36%), and office spaces. (16%).  Almost 1 in 3 Canadians are also investing in other spaces such as pools, highlighting the multipurpose renovations taking place across the country.

This suggests that Canadians are split in their reasoning behind renovations. The drivers are a combination of personal functionality through the construction of multipurpose spaces, and future profit through investments in home upgrades.

6. Many Canadians believe now is the right time to be doing home renovations.

Close to 1 in 4 Canadians believe now is the best time to undertake home renovations. This includes 1 in 4 Canadians aged 18 to 44.

Individuals with higher income are also likelier to invest in renovations with 1 in 3 Canadians with income over $100K keen to start swinging hammers.

THE UPSHOT

According to Samriddh Chaudhury: The COVID-19 pandemic and its subsequent lockdowns have fundamentally shifted how Canadian families work, function, and access the routines of their life before the pandemic. With work, school, entertainment, and recreational activities all centralized under one roof, homes have become the one-stop-shop for daily activity.

While many Canadians are still focused on the daily and long-term repercussions from the COVID-19 pandemic, there is a sizeable opportunity for home renovations to become a productive investment. The uncertainty of lockdowns, vaccination periods, and prolonged absence of work has made home renovations an optimal and accessible solution.

Canadians want their ‘new normal’ home to be multifunctional and comfortable, and home renovation offers that outlet in an accessible way.

And don’t miss any of our research and analysis, plus get our weekly Worth A Look newsletter. Sign up today.

METHODOLOGY

This survey was conducted online with 1,500 Canadians aged 18 and over from February 19th to February 22nd, 2021. A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20.

In Canada the data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This poll was conducted and paid for by Abacus Data.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

Find out more about what we are doing to help clients respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

COVID-19MediaPolls

Are Canadians Happier than Americans?

This last week we took the opportunity to answer a question that’s been on our minds since we started the Abacus Data Happiness Monitor: are Canadians happier than Americans?

We went into field late last week with surveys in both countries to answer that question.

But before we get into the comparison, some good news about our national happiness in Canada. As of March 7th, the average happiness score is the highest it has been since we started this project, sitting at 64.

It seems as though the spring weather, combined with the news of growing vaccine rollouts are making us more optimistic. On March 5th Canada announced the approval of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine bringing the total to four approved COVID-19 vaccines in the country. Happiness is higher among those with a more positive outlook of the COVID-19 situation (the worst is behind us), and those who feel less worried overall about the virus.

But back to the main question; are Canadians happier than Americans? At the time of this survey, the answer is no.

Americans are more than one full point ahead of Canadians when it comes to their happiness. However, Americans are more polarized in their happiness meaning there is more division between those who report high and low happiness than Canadians, who are more likely to be closer to the midpoint.

Why the difference?

One reason seems to be the difference in how Canadians and Americans feel about the pandemic. Americans, for example, are more likely to say that the worst of the outbreak is behind them (38% compared to 27% in Canada). And given that this measure is correlated to a higher happiness score, one might assume that the Americans are happier because of their outlook on the virus is more positive than in Canada.

But in the United States, happiness and what’s happening on the ground aren’t tied together the same way as overall pandemic outlook.

In the top five states with the most vaccines administered per 100k residents (as of March 8th, source: CDC), the average happiness score is 57.5, which is notably lower than the overall American happiness score. And in the top five states with the most deaths per 100k in the past 7 days (as of March 8th, source: CDC) is 67.6 which is higher than average.

This is confounding, right?

This suggests that in the US, perceived happiness is likely caused by other factors – personal financial outlook and optimism about one’s future.  In the US, these factors seem to be playing a much larger roll in determining one’s reported happiness than in Canada.

In other words, there is more happiness inequality in the United States. For example, the gap in happiness between those with a household income of less than $50K and those with a household income of over $100K, is 18 points. In Canada, its only 8. The gap in happiness between men and women is twice as high in the United States, compared to Canada. And the gap in happiness between younger and older is far greater in the United States than Canada.

One thing that does hold true between the two countries is happiness and civic engagement. Like in Canada, one of the biggest drivers for happiness, or lack thereof, is civic engagement (we are using whether they voted in the last election or not as a proxy for this). In Canada the gap between those who voted and those who did not is 10 points. In the United States it is 17.

THE UPSHOT

According to Oksana Kishchuk: Good news first, happiness in Canada is on the rise. There are many reasons to be more optimistic, including lower daily case counts, increasing vaccinations, and warmer weather.

But if the United States is an example of what is to come here in Canada, a larger number of us vaccinated might not equate to a rise in happiness, or at least a rise long-term.

Canada isn’t the United States, but these results show that perceptions of the pandemic aren’t necessarily tied to vaccination rates. It’s likely more of a reflection of one’s own experience with the pandemic- how you feel about your life and work, if you’ve had a strong support network during this time, if you are experiencing pandemic fatigue, and how the pandemic has been impacting your mental health. And perhaps more important than the above, if the pandemic has exacerbated inequalities you already faced or brought new ones.

As we begin our slow exit out of the pandemic, we will continue to track national happiness in Canada to see whether this trend up continues. But for now, we will hold onto this good news about our happiness today.

And don’t miss any of our research and analysis, plus get our weekly Worth A Look newsletter. Sign up today.

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 1,500 Canadians and 1,500 Americans aged 18 and over from March 4th to March 7th, 2021. A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.

In Canada the data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.

In the United States the data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched the United States’s population age, gender, region and ethnicity.

Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This poll was conducted and paid for by Abacus Data.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

Find out more about what we are doing to help clients respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

COVID-19MediaPolls

Canadians & the COVID-19 Shot: Patient and Mostly Confident

Listen to David Coletto’s new podcast inFocus with David Coletto

Listen to Bruce Anderson & Peter Mansbridge Wednesday’s on Smoke, Mirrors and the Truth, a podcast within Peter Mansbridge’s podcast The Bridge.

By Bruce Anderson & David Coletto

Roughly two out of three Canadians expect to be offered a COVID-19 vaccine shot before the end of September timetable discussed by the Prime Minister, and about 60% of them consider that timing to be acceptable or better.

One in five people don’t expect to have access to a shot until 2022, and 58% of that group considers that timing acceptable.

The patterns in these data suggest that if the government meets that timetable most people will be satisfied with that, although it is reasonable to assume that these perceptions will fluctuate depending on a number of factors. People may find themselves happier once they have the shot, or frustrated if they feel that the pace relative to the United States or other countries is lagging. Alternatively, their mood might change based on the health of the economy and how quickly they are able to return to more normal activities.

It seems reasonable to assume based on these expectations, and the announcement by the federal government last week about accelerating Pfizer shipments and the authorization of the Johnson and Johnson vaccine, that the government’s vaccine roll-out may outperform what more than half of the population expects.

Based on their current expectations of when a vaccine will be available to them personally, 40% believing that the timing they expect to be offered a vaccine will be unacceptably slow. Older people are somewhat more unhappy than younger people but the difference is about five percentage points. The most dissatisfied are Conservative voters, 50% of whom say the timing will be too slow. Among NDP voters 42% are anticipating too slow an availability.

VACCINE HESITANCY

In our polling, 4% say they have had the first shot, and 58% say they will take the shot as soon as it is available to them. That leaves a total of 38% exhibiting some form or degree of hesitancy, including 8% who say they will not take the vaccine under any circumstances, 9% prefer not to but could be convinced, and 21% who expect to take the vaccine but would prefer to wait a bit before taking it.

Those most likely to exhibit hesitancy are people under 45, particularly women under 45, as well as those with less formal education, and Conservative and Green Party voters.

There are slightly different levels of confidence in the different vaccines that have been approved for use in Canada. Pfizer and Moderna enjoy equal levels of public confidence, while Johnson and Johnson is slightly lower because there is a higher “unsure” level. Astra Zeneca has a lower level of public confidence, especially among Conservative voters and women.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “For most people, getting access to a vaccine is a crucial priority in their lives, and hesitancy levels have come down a bit as people see vaccines being administered around the world in increasing amounts.

For the federal government, the public remains relatively patient with the timetable laid out by the Prime Minister and improvements on that timetable are likely to be met with public appreciation. The data about Astra Zeneca’s vaccine is a clear signal of how closely attentive people are to vaccine safety questions and thus that confidence is always a bit fragile and momentum could be put at risk if doubt about safety becomes a more prominent political discussion.”

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 2,000 Canadian adults from March 2 to 5, 2021. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

And don’t miss any of our research and analysis, plus get our weekly Worth A Look newsletter. Sign up today.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

Find out more about what we are doing to help clients respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 2,000 Canadian adults from March 2 to 5, 2021. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Canadian PoliticsCOVID-19MediaPolls

Liberals regain lead as the mood of the country brightens

Listen to David Coletto’s new podcast inFocus with David Coletto

Our latest national polling data shows that an election held today would see the Liberals with 34% support (up two since from last month), the Conservatives at 30% (down 1), the NDP at 18% (unchanged) and the Greens at 7% (unchanged).

Regionally, the Liberals have a 9-point lead in Ontario and a 19-point lead in Atlantic Canada. In Quebec, the Liberals and BQ are statistically tied, while in BC, we continue to find a close three-way race between the Conservatives, NDP, and Liberals. The Conservatives lead by wide margins in the Prairies.

The federal government’s approval rating trended downward at the end of 2020 and into early 2021 but has stabilized with equal numbers approving and disapproving of the government’s overall performance.

Given that we may see a federal election called in 2021, we gauged the electorate’s desire for change (a question we have asked in past pre-election and election periods). Today, 39% say it’s definitely time for a change in government, while 17% say it’s definitely best to keep the Liberals in office. The remaining respondents are split between either wanting change or keeping the Liberals in office but not feeling strongly about that opinion.

The desire for change today is substantially lower than it was in 2019.

In the run-up to and at the end of the 2019 election, just over 50% of voters felt it was definitely time for a change; today, that number is 39%

In 2019 the number who wanted the reelection of the Liberals was 29% at the start of the campaign and 31% at the end. Today it is 34%.

Impressions of Prime Minister Trudeau have held steady from last month. 37% have a positive impression while 40% have a negative view. For comparison purposes, in the final days of the 2019 campaign, 38% had a positive view while 45% had a negative view of the Liberal leader.

Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole sees his negatives rising for the 4th straight wave in our research. Today, 32% have a negative view of him, while 20% view him positively. This is the highest negative we’ve measured for Mr. O’Toole since we started tracking his public image.

For Mr. Singh, impressions of him have remained relatively consistent over time. One in three Canadians has a positive view of the NDP leader compared with 25% who view him negatively, mostly unchanged since last month.

In this survey, we asked respondents whether they think of each party leader as more preoccupied with the interests of their political party or with the country and Canadians as a whole. In every case, half or more of respondents felt the leaders were more preoccupied with the interests of their party, but there were some notable differences.

Two-thirds (68%) see Mr. O’Toole as more preoccupied with the interests of his party, some 11-points higher than Mr. Trudeau (57%), and 17-points higher than Mr. Singh (51%).

The perceived level of partisanship for Mr. O’Toole is more problematic because of its impact on accessible Conservative voters. Among Liberal and NDP accessible voters, clear majorities feel those leaders are more preoccupied with the country rather than their party. Less than a majority of those open to voting Conservative feel that way about Mr. O’Toole.

GOVERNMENT COVID-19 PERFORMANCE

Our survey also asked respondents to rate the federal government’s performance on a series of COVID-19 related areas. We have asked many of the same questions since January.

Since the last time we reported in early February, positive impressions of the federal government’s communications are up 6-points while positive impressions of its handling of timely vaccine procurement are up 4-points while negatives are down 7 from a month ago.

OVERALL MOOD

Finally, the overall mood of Canadians has improved over the last few weeks. More today feel the country is headed in the right direction than did since October. Moreover, optimism about the direction of the United States and the world is at the highest points in over a year of tracking.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “There is a tentative quality to public opinion, not surprising given the dramatic headwinds of the last year. Having said that, this survey is indicating a modest improvement in public mood – and Friday’s announcements about accelerating vaccines might only serve to add to the trend these numbers signal. One of the major lessons emerging from the pandemic is that the public doesn’t much like partisanship at the best of times, but really dislikes it in the worst of times. Mr. O’Toole seems to have figured out how to be noticed – which is one of the big challenges for any opposition leader – but he’s being noticed for taking positions with are grating on many people, because he focuses on his desire to win an election when most other people are clearly not interested in that conversation”.

According to David Coletto: “The political environment for the governing Liberals has improved since our last report in early February. The Liberals have regained a clear lead over the Conservatives. Impressions of the government’s handling of the pandemic, especially vaccine procurement, are improving, and the desire for change is considerably lower than it was at the start and end of the 2019 election campaign.

As the Conservative Party rolls out an ad campaign to introduce its leader to Canadians, these numbers reiterate the challenge facing Mr. O’Toole: his negatives continue to rise, more think he’s focused more on the interests of his party than the country, and the desire for change is doing little to push his party’s support up.”

And don’t miss any of our research and analysis, plus get our weekly Worth A Look newsletter. Sign up today.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

Find out more about what we are doing to help clients respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 2,000 Canadian adults from March 2 to 5, 2021. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Canadian PoliticsCOVID-19MediaPolls

Charities and the Pandemic: They need us now more than ever

Since the beginning of the pandemic last March, many charities have experienced an increased demand for their services in support of their communities and the groups they are serving, and a decrease in charitable donations.

At the extreme, some charities have had to close their doors permanently, leaving vulnerable populations with less support.

We wanted to gage Canadians’ ability to support one another during the pandemic, during a time of such severe loss and isolation, and see what causes matter to them the most.

Here is what we found: 

1.Canadians care deeply about our communities. We like to give back through more than just donations. But the pandemic has left us with more challenges of our own and it has impacted how we give back.

Nearly 60% of Canadians report that prior to the pandemic they typically donate to a charity each year – another 21% normally do volunteer work with a charity.

But when the pandemic hit the past year, support for charities shifted. About half of Canadians find themselves still able to donate the same amount as they normally would to a charity, but a third say they have had to donate less since the beginning of the pandemic. Not surprisingly, with the health and safety of being in public and lockdowns across the country, 60% say they are volunteering less for charities.

There are many contributing factors for the decline we are seeing in charitable donations and volunteering, the most common being Canadians struggling financially – loss of jobs and income. The traditional notion of in-person volunteering is challenging, with health and safety concerns for virus transmission and lockdowns across the country. Those in lower income brackets are exhibiting a decline in charitable donations more so than others. Donations to a charity has decreased 8-points more for those in lower income brackets.

2.  Despite the decrease in donations of time and money, a large majority believe the need for charitable donates in the county has soared as a result of the pandemic.

58% say the need for charitable donations in Canada has increased as a result of the pandemic. One in two say this includes the need for charitable donations in their community – a higher portion of those living in rural locations are seeing this increase.

There has been considerable coverage of the impacts of the pandemic in the news – sometimes it seems that’s all we see. We hear about populations and groups that are worse off than ourselves or going through similar experiences as our own.

When asked what groups they feel the pandemic has impacted the most, nearly all Canadians said the elderly. This sentiment grows substantially among older Canadians – many of whom have likely had had first-hand experience through a parent or loved one.

There is no doubt that our frontline workers have worked tirelessly since the start of the pandemic – 70% of Canadians feeling they were among the most impacted by the pandemic.

Vulnerable populations, like those living in poverty, victims of abuse (like children and women), and people living with disabilities were also among the top ranked groups impacted by the pandemic.

Canadians who self-reported as belonging to a visible minority are far more likely to feel that those who are unemployed, shift or gig workers, Indigenous Peoples and those belonging to a visible minority were among the most impacted by the pandemic.

3. It’s clear that Canadians see the pandemic impacting a diverse group of people and its often dependent on one’s own lived experience. So where do we think we should support is needed the most?

Health care and hospitals, and food banks are a no brainer – tied for the most important charities or relief funds to support during this difficult time and about 60% of Canadians agree. Following closely behind is the need to support those in vulnerable communities, like the elderly, low income, visible minorities, and Indigenous communities.

A topic covered frequently in the news- mental health- has become a deep concern.  Many being isolated from friends and family, experiencing job loss and struggling to pay bills during the pandemic. Nearly half of Canadians believe that supporting charities or relief funds for mental health initiatives are important.

The homeless population has been at an increased risk of exposure to the virus, and reports of homeless shelters closing their doors permanently have been in the news. A third of Canadians find that charities focusing on our homeless population are important to support.

Canadians are well aware of the struggles faced by fellow Canadians since the start of the pandemic and are willing to admit just how much some of these groups need support, now more than ever. But lockdowns have been prevalent in many provinces, making in-person donations and volunteer work difficult regardless of how much demand has increased.

When it comes to financial donations, not all charities have innovated their methods and have fallen behind in their ability to collect donations.

Many charities have moved their operations to an online or virtual format, and have enabled donations to be made online. Others have allowed for volunteers to participate virtually or in outdoor settings that follow health and safety guidelines.

Will this shift to and online/virtual approach be enough to restore previously lost revenue that the beginning of the pandemic brought? How can charities, who often faced budgetary struggles before the pandemic, still support groups amidst a surge in demand?

And finally, have the emergency funds available through the federal government to help charities in supporting vulnerable populations during the pandemic done enough?

THE UPSHOT

According to Megan Ross: Canadians are well aware of how the pandemic has disrupted the lives of many and increased struggles that were already there. As Canadians, we work hard to support ourselves and one another, and we want to be there in times of need. This has been apparent in the tireless work by our frontline workers, and those who have been able to set aside funds to donate to their charity of choice.

There is no doubt that Canadian charities need our help. They have been among the hardest hit by the pandemic, with diminishing support and a rise in demand for their services. In some cases, they are struggling to keep their doors open.

Canadians recognize the importance of charities, especially given the amount of support many have needed during this time. But we aren’t able to support others the way we were before the pandemic.

As Canadians, we need to support our charities where and when we can. And charities should be reassured that Canadians have not forgotten about their important role in our communities but ensure they are looking for more ways to connect with donors, so they are ready to reengage when donors are ready.

And don’t miss any of our research and analysis, plus get our weekly Worth A Look newsletter. Sign up today.

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 2,000 Canadians aged 18 and over from January 29, 2021 to February 3, 2021. A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This poll was conducted and paid for by Abacus Data.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

Find out more about what we are doing to help clients respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 2,000 Canadians aged 18 and over from January 29 to February 3, 2021. A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This poll was conducted and paid for by Abacus Data.

COVID-19MediaPolls