The Newfoundland and Labrador Liberal Party would win big if the election were held today, according to our new survey of 700 eligible voters in the province. Although down slightly, the Liberals have maintained their large lead over the incumbent PCs. Currently they lead by 42-points, down from the 47-point lead we measured at the start of the election campaign.

Liberal support is at 64% (down two since the start of the campaign) compared with 22% for the PCs (up three) and 13% for the NDP (down 2). Twelve percent of respondents say they are undecided.

The NL Liberals lead by a wide margin in every region of the province although the race is somewhat closer in St. John’s and on the Avalon Peninsula.

To put these results in context, in the last provincial election, the Conservatives won a large majority of 37 seats with 56% of the vote. The provincial Liberal support also continues to mirror the support received by the federal Liberals (65%) on October 19 during the federal election.

Accessible Voters

The Liberals not only have a large lead among committed supporters but they also continue to have the largest pool of potential or accessible voters. 72% of eligible voters (unchanged, marginally down by 1) we surveyed said they would consider voting Liberal compared with 36% for the PCs (up 4 since the start of the campaign) and 32% for the NDP (down 5 since our last wave).

These results indicate that although the PC accessible vote is up slightly, their campaign has not had much impact on its support or potential support. The Liberals remain in a commanding position with only 5 days left before most eligible voters cast a ballot.

Direction of the Province

One of the remarkable things about public opinion during this election, from both our province wide surveys and those of individual districts with VOCM, is the contradictory perceptions of eligible voters when it comes to their feelings about the direction of the province and their intense desire for change.

In our current survey, 53% of eligible voters felt that the province was headed in the right direction (marginally up 1) while 25% feel the provinces is off on the wrong track.

Despite the positive mood about the province as a whole, the desire for a change of government remains high, with 81% wanting change and 56% saying they definitely want a change in government. Although the intensity for change is down somewhat from the start of the campaign (60% said they definitely wanted change in our first survey of the campaign), it remains persistent.

Among those who definitely want a change in government, 63% are voting Liberal (down 5), 12% are voting NDP (down 4), and 18% are undecided at this point (up 7). The commanding Liberal lead continues to be built on the fact that it has maintained the support of those who want change.

Top Issues

Respondents were asked, unprompted, to name the most important issue facing Newfoundland and Labrador. The economy and health care continue to be the top issue of the campaign, largely unchanged since the beginning of the campaign. No other issue has moved up significantly since the start of the campaign.

Leadership: Ball still most popular; Davis improves

Dwight Ball remains the most popular political leader in the province with 50% having a positive impression of the Liberal leader (unchanged since the start of the campaign) and only 12% saying they have a negative impression of him (up 2 since the first wave). Although he continues to trail Mr. Ball, Premier Davis’ personal ratings have improved from the start of the campaign with 39% of eligible voters now saying they have a positive impression of the PC Leader (up 7) while his negatives have remained steady at 20%. NDP Leader Earle McCurdy is viewed positively by 25% of respondents and negatively by 31% (an increase since the start of the campaign).

Who Voters Think Will Win

Most eligible voters in the province still believe the Liberal Party will win the election on November 30. 81% said they thought the Liberals would win, up 5 since the start of the campaign. Seven percent picked the PCs while only 1% believed the NDP would win the election.

This view is now overwhelmingly shared among all party voters. 67% of PC supporters think the Liberals will win while 77% of NDP voters think the Liberals will win the election.

What is the election about?

In our final survey of the campaign, we asked respondents to pick which option, from a list, they felt best describes what the Newfoundland and Labrador provincial election was most about.

Responses were mixed with 29% saying the election is about which party and leader has the best plan for the economy. Another 27% said it was about which party and leader could work best with the new government in Ottawa while 23% said it was about which party and leader could deliver the change they were looking for. Keeping taxes low and voting for the leader who would make the best Premier were less likely to be thought what the election was about.

When we compare what people said the election was about with their vote intention, we find that the Liberal Party wins among all groups although its lead was smaller among those who believed the election was about the economy. Among those saying the election is about the economy, 55% are voting Liberal compared with 31% for the PCs and 13% for the NDP.

The Liberals hold commanding leads among those who say the election is about cooperation with the new Liberal government in Ottawa and among those who say it is about change.

The Upshot

As the 2015 Newfoundland and Labrador provincial election ends, the Liberal Party led by Dwight Ball remains in a very solid position to defeat the incumbent Progressive Conservative Government.

The desire for change has not dissipated much throughout the election campaign and as such, the PCs and Paul Davis have not been able to make much of a dent in the commanding Liberal lead. Just 7% of voters felt that the Conservatives will win, and that number has not grown since the campaign began. Moreover, almost all eligible voters expect the Liberals to win on Monday.

If the PCs do lose on Monday, it will not be because most people dislike Premier Davis or think the province is headed in the wrong direction but because people want change and see an opportunity for cooperation between a new provincial government and the new Liberal government in Ottawa.

According to our data, the campaign and all the leaders’ debates have not changed the trajectory of the campaign. Mr. Ball remains very popular and his Liberal Party continues to hold a commanding lead over the PCs and NDP. However, despite his popularity, only 7% felt the election will be about the best Premier. Moreover, even though taxes are a bedrock Conservative issue, just 4% of voters felt this election will be about taxes. The election of a new Liberal government in Ottawa is a consideration for many, and a strong driver of Liberal support and a change agenda.

Unless something fundamentally changes in the closing days of the election and voters change their minds, we expect Mr. Ball to be the next Premier of Newfoundland and Labrador

Methodology

The random live-interview telephone survey was conducted with 700 eligible voters living in Newfoundland and Labrador. The survey was completed from November 22 to 24, 2015.

The margin of error for a probability-based random sample of 700 respondents using a probability sample is +/- 3.8%, 19 times out of 20.

The data was statistically weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched population of Newfoundland and Labrador. The tables within this report detail the weighted and unweighted counts for the sample.

Note the small sample sizes when reviewing results in subgroups.

For more information about the poll’s methodology or the results, please contact David Coletto, CEO at david@abacusdata.ca or at 613-232-2806.

Abacus Data Inc.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD.

VOCM News commissioned Abacus Data to conduct surveys in four provincial electoral districts. Today, we report the results of a survey of 500 eligible voters living in Windsor Lake.

The Race for Windsor Lake

Liberal candidate and incumbent MHA Cathy Bennett has very large 58-point lead over PC candidate and former NDP MP Ryan Cleary in the district of Windsor Lake. 74% of committed voters in the district say they will vote for Ms. Bennett, followed by Mr. Cleary at 16% and NDP candidate Don Rowe in third at 10%. 23% of respondents were undecided or not voting.

Windsor Lake is a new district that includes parts of the former electoral districts of Cape St. Francis, St. John’s East, St. John’s North, and Virginia Waters. Cathy Bennett won a April 9, 2014 by-election in Virginia Waters defeat the PC candidate by 40 votes.

Download the full results deck here: https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Abacus-Newfoundland-and-Labrador-Political-Survey-Windsor-Lake-Nov-2015.pdf

Along with vote intentions, we also measured the mood of voters in the district, their perceptions of the party leaders, and what issues were most important to them.

Here’s what we found:

77% think it is time for a change in government (2 points below the provincial average).

The economy and jobs (39%), and health care (21%) are the top issues in the district, similar to provincial level findings and results in the three other districts we surveyed.

> 78% would consider voting Liberal (4 points above provincial average), 34% would consider voting NDP (3 points below provincial average) and 40% would consider voting PC (8 points above the provincial average).

> Liberal Leader Dwight Ball has the most favourable image in the district with 55% having a positive impression of him and only 10% viewing him negatively. PC Leader Paul Davis also have a net positive impression, although somewhat less positive than Mr. Ball. Forty-two percent view Mr. Davis positively while 21% view him negatively. NDP Leader Earle McCurdy is viewed positively by 19% of eligible voters and negatively by 30%. Mr. Ball’s net impression score is somewhat stronger than the provincial average (NL +40, Windsor Lake +45) while Mr. Davis’ numbers are considerably stronger (NL +7, Windsor Lake +21). Mr. McCurdy’s numbers are weaker in Windsor Lake than they are provincially (NL +4, Windsor Lake -11).

> Despite trailing the Liberals in Windsor Lake, most eligible voters in the district think the province is headed in the right direction (58%), six points higher than the provincial average.

> 86% of voters think the Liberal Party will win the provincial election and 73% think the Liberal candidate will win locally in Windsor Lake. Province-wide, 76% of respondents said they believed the Liberals would win the election.

> 49% of those we surveyed voted Liberal in the recent federal election, 26% voted NDP and 10% voted Conservative. 89% of those who voted Liberal federally are planning to vote for Ms. Bennett and the Liberals provincially (9% are voting for Mr. Cleary) while only 26% of federal NDP voters say they are planning on voting for the NDP candidate in the district (16% are voting PC while the majority (58%) are voting Liberal).

> Only 25% of those who voted PC in 2011 are planning on voting PC this time. 73% are voting Liberal and 1% say they will vote NDP.

The Upshot

Ryan Cleary made a splash when he announced that he was going to run for the provincial Progressive Conservatives soon after he was defeated in his re-election bid as the NDP MP for St. John’s South – Mount Pearl in the October Federal Election. Mr. Cleary’s entry into the race in Windsor Lake has not improved the PC Party’s chances of winning the district as Liberal candidate and incumbent MHA Cathy Bennett has a commanding 58-point lead over Mr. Cleary.

And although we didn’t ask respondents their opinion of Mr. Cleary directly, evidence suggests he may be pushing away supporters.

First, many of the underlying perceptions mirror what we have seen in the other three districts we have surveyed and in the province-wide survey we completed earlier this month. Three quarters of eligible voters want change, yet most think the province is headed in the right direction. And while Dwight Ball is the most popular leader in the district, a large plurality of eligible voters also have a favourable impression of PC Leader Paul Davis.

So what is different in Windsor Lake?  It is probably a Cleary effect. Two data points provide some clues.

Mr. Cleary is having little success attracting those who voted Conservative and NDP federally.. 48% of those who voted Conservative federally in October say they would vote for the provincial Liberals now while 58% of those who voted for the NDP federally are going to vote Liberal provincially. Mr. Cleary and the PCs are only attracting 46% of past federal Conservative voters and only 16% of past federal NDP voters.

Finally, and perhaps most instructive, 73% of those who said they voted PC in the 2011 provincial election are now planning to vote Liberal. That level of voter attrition from the Tories is 20 to 30 points higher than in the other districts we surveyed.

This all suggests that Mr. Cleary was not the prize the PCs thought and voters in Windsor Lake might be rejecting his choice to change political stripes.

Download the full results deck here: https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Abacus-Newfoundland-and-Labrador-Political-Survey-Windsor-Lake-Nov-2015.pdf

Methodology

The random live-interview telephone survey was conducted with 500 eligible voters living in the provincial electoral district of Windsor Lake. The survey was completed from November 12 to 16, 2015.

The margin of error for a probability-based random sample of 500 respondents using a probability sample is +/- 4.5%, 19 times out of 20.

The data was statistically weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched population of the electoral district.

Note the small sample sizes when reviewing results in subgroups.

For more information about the poll’s methodology or the results, please contact David Coletto, CEO at david@abacusdata.ca or at 613-232-2806.

Abacus Data Inc.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD. For more information, visit our website at http://www.abacusdata.ca/

VOCM News commissioned Abacus Data to conduct surveys in four provincial electoral districts. Today, we report the results of a survey of 500 eligible voters living in Mount Pearl North.

The Race in Mount Pearl North

Liberal candidate Randy Simms has a 17-point lead over PC candidate Steve Kent with 54% of decided voters in the district supporting Mr. Simms, followed by Mr. Kent at 37% and NDP candidate Cameron Mercer-Maillet in third at 9%. 22% of respondents were undecided or not voting.

Note, at the time the survey was in the field, the NDP had not yet nominated a candidate and a name was not included in the interview.

Download the full results deck here: https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Abacus-Newfoundland-and-Labrador-Political-Survey-Mount-Pearl-North-Nov-2015.pdf

We also measured the mood of voters in the district, their perceptions of the party leaders, and what issues were most important to them. Here’s what we found:

>  79% think it is time for a change in government (on par with the provincial average).

>  The economy and jobs (35%), and health care (23%) are the top issues in the district, similar to provincial level findings.

73% would consider voting Liberal (on par with the provincial average), 30% would consider voting NDP (7 points below provincial average) and 44% would consider voting PC (12 points above the provincial average).

> Liberal Leader Dwight Ball is the most popular party leader in the district (45% positive, 16% negative) although Mr. Davis’ personal numbers are not far behind (42% positive and 17% negative). Mr. Ball’s net impression score is lower than the provincial average (NL +40, Mount Pearl North +29) while Mr. Davis’ numbers are stronger (NL +7, Mount Pearl North +25). Mr. McCurdy’s numbers are somewhat lower in Mount Pearl North than provincially (NL +4, Mount Pearl North -8).

> Like in the other districts we surveyed, a majority of eligible voters in Mount Pearl North believe the province is headed in the right direction (similar to the provincial average at 54%), yet the PC candidate Steve Kent trails by almost 20 points.

> 80% of voters think the Liberal Party will win the provincial election, 4 points higher than the province wide average. When it comes to who will win in Mount Pearl North, expectations are much closer with 44% thinking the Liberal candidate will win compared 32% think the PC candidate will win the district.

> 57% of those we surveyed voted Liberal in the recent federal election, 25% voted NDP and 5% voted Conservative. 69% of those who voted Liberal federally are planning to vote for Mr. Simms and the Liberals provincially (28% are voting for Mr. Kent and the PCs) while only 25% of federal NDP voters say they are planning on voting for the NDP candidate in the district (47% are voting PC and 28% are voting Liberal).

The Upshot

Eligible voters in Mount Pearl North, like most Newfoundlanders and Labradorians, are looking for change. And this desire for a change in government is creating a significant challenge for high profile incumbent MHAs like Steve Kent in Mount Pearl North. Mr. Kent trails Liberal candidate Randy Simms by 17 points among committed voters despite the fact that most of the electorate thinks the province is headed in the right direction and PC Leader Paul Davis is well liked (he has a net impression rating of +25, very similar to Liberal Leader Dwight Ball). What appears to be contradictory opinions is really a strong desire for change overshadowing all other voter concerns. We think this explains how popular and well known PC incumbents like Mr. Kent are in tough for re-election.

Download the full results deck here: https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Abacus-Newfoundland-and-Labrador-Political-Survey-Mount-Pearl-North-Nov-2015.pdf

Methodology

The random live-interview telephone survey was conducted with 500 eligible voters living in the provincial electoral district of Mount Pearl North. The survey was completed from November 12 to 16, 2015.

The margin of error for a probability-based random sample of 500 respondents using a probability sample is +/- 4.5%, 19 times out of 20.

The data was statistically weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched population of the electoral district.

Note the small sample sizes when reviewing results in subgroups.

For more information about the poll’s methodology or the results, please contact David Coletto, CEO at david@abacusdata.ca or at 613-232-2806.

Abacus Data Inc.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD. For more information, visit our website at http://www.abacusdata.ca/

VOCM News commissioned Abacus Data to conduct surveys in four provincial electoral districts in Newfoundland and Labrador. Today, we report the results of a survey of 500 eligible voters living in Paradise-Topsail, an electoral district outside of St. John’s on the Avalon Peninsula.

Download the full results deck here: https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Abacus-Newfoundland-and-Labrador-Political-Survey-Topsail-Paradise-Nov-2015.pdf

The Race in Topsail-Paradise

Liberal candidate Rex Hillier has a 21-point lead over PC candidate, incumbent MHA, and NL Premier Paul Davis. Mr. Hillier has the support of 56% of decided voters in the district, followed by Mr. Davis at 35% with NDP candidate Chris Bruce in third at 9%. 24% of respondents said they were undecided or not voting in the election.

Along with vote intention, the survey also measured the mood of voters in the district, their perceptions of the party leaders, and what issues were most important to them. Here’s what we found:

> 71% of eligible voters think it is time for a change in government (8 points lower than the provincial average).

> In Topsail-Paradise, 71% of eligible voters would consider voting Liberal (2 points less than the provincial average), 46% would consider voting PC (14 points higher than provincial average) and 27% would consider voting NDP (10 points lower than the provincial average).

The economy and jobs (33%), and health care (21%) are the top issues in the district, similar to what we found provincially.

> Liberal Leader Dwight Ball and PC Leader Paul Davis have similar impressions among voters in the electoral district. A majority have a positive impression of both leaders (51% for Mr. Ball and 51% Mr. Davis) although Mr. Davis’ negatives are 7 points higher than Mr. Ball. NDP Leader Earle McCurdy is viewed positively by 18% of those in Topsail-Paradise and viewed negatively by 33%. Mr. Ball’s net impression score is on par with the provincial average (NL +40 , Topsail-Paradise +38) while Mr. Davis’ numbers are substantially higher (NL +7, Topsail-Paradise +31). Mr. McCurdy’s personal numbers are weaker in Topsail-Paradise than they are provincially (NL +4, Topsail-Paradise -15)

> While the Mr. Davis and the PCs are trailing the Liberal candidate by 21 points in the district, 61% think the province is headed in the right direction.

> 80% of voters think the Liberal Party will win the provincial election, 4 points higher than the province wide average. When it comes to who will win in Topsail-Paradise, expectations are much closer with 44% thinking the Liberal candidate will win compared 38% think the PC candidate will win the district.

> 60% of those we surveyed voted Liberal in the recent federal election, 14% voted NDP and 6% voted Conservative. 68% of those who voted Liberal federally say they will vote for the NL Liberals while 25% will vote for the PCs. The sample sizes for federal NDP and Conservative voters are too small to make confident estimates.

The Upshot

Even Premier Paul Davis is not immune from the mood for change among voters as he trails Liberal candidate Rex Hillier by 21 points in his home district of Topsail-Paradise. 71% of voters in his electoral district think it would be good to have a change in government.

Despite this difficult political environment, Premier Davis is well regarded in his riding. 51% of eligible voters in Topsail-Paradise have a positive impression of him personally, 19-points higher than the provincial average from a survey we did earlier this month. Moreover, most in the district believe the province is headed in the right direction. The results provide additional evidence that the provincial election is about change, not the economy or leadership.

The only upside in these numbers for Mr. Davis is that 46% of eligible voters would consider voting PC, 14 points higher than the provincial average. To win, Davis will need to convert all these potential supporters into actually PC voters while at the same time hoping the NDP can eat into some of the Liberal Party’s support. Not impossible with two weeks remaining in the campaign, but made more difficult by the fact that Mr. Davis is busy campaigning across province.

Download the full results deck here: https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Abacus-Newfoundland-and-Labrador-Political-Survey-Topsail-Paradise-Nov-2015.pdf

Methodology

The random live-interview telephone survey was conducted with 500 eligible voters living in the provincial electoral district of St. John’s West. The survey was completed from November 8 to 12, 2015.

The margin of error for a probability-based random sample of 500 respondents using a probability sample is +/- 4.5%, 19 times out of 20.

The data was statistically weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched population of the electoral district.

Note the small sample sizes when reviewing results in subgroups.

For more information about the poll’s methodology or the results, please contact David Coletto, CEO at david@abacusdata.ca or at 613-232-2806.

Abacus Data Inc.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD.

VOCM News commissioned Abacus Data to conduct surveys in four provincial electoral districts. Today, we report the results of a survey of 500 eligible voters living in St. John’s West.

Download the full results deck here: https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Abacus-Newfoundland-and-Labrador-Political-Survey-St.-Johns-West-Nov-2015.pdf

The Race in St. John’s West

Liberal candidate Siobhán Coady has a 33-point lead over NDP leader Earle McCurdy with 57% of decided voters in the district, followed by Mr. McCurdy at 24% and PC candidate and incumbent MHA Dan Crummell in third at 19%. 26% of respondents were undecided or not voting.

Ms. Coady’s support is strong among men and women, and particularly strong among those a university degree while the PC’s are far behind in every single demographic group.

We also measured the mood of voters in the district, their perceptions of the party leaders, and what issues were most important to them. Here’s what we found:

> 83% think it is time for a change in government (4 points above the provincial average).

> The economy and jobs (29%), and health care (21%) are the top issues in the district, similar to provincial level findings.

68% would consider voting Liberal (5 points below the provincial average), 41% would consider voting NDP (5 points above provincial average) and 35% would consider voting PC (3 points above the provincial average).

> Liberal Leader Dwight Ball is the most popular party leader in the district (42% positive, 13% negative) although Mr. Davis’ personal numbers are not particularly bad (37% positive and 23% negative. Mr. Ball’s net impression score is lower (NL +40, St. John’s West +29) while Mr. Davis’ numbers are somewhat higher (NL +7, St. John’s West +14). Mr. McCurdy’s numbers are slightly better in St. John’s West than provincially (NL +4, St. John’s West +7).

> While the PC’s are in third place in St. John’s West, a majority (56%) think the province is headed in the right direction (province wide 54%).

> 81% of voters think the Liberal Party will win the provincial election and 59% think the Liberal candidate will win locally in St. John’s West. Province-wide, 76% of respondents said they believed the Liberals would win the election.

> 51% of those we surveyed voted Liberal in the recent federal election, 26% voted NDP and 6% voted Conservative. 77% of those who voted Liberal federally are planning to vote for Ms. Coady and the Liberals provincially while 58% of federal NDP voters say they are planning on voting for Mr. McCurdy and the NL NDP.

The Upshot

Barring any sudden change in views among the electorate in St. John’s West, Liberal candidate Siobhan Coady should win the election leaving NDP Leader Earle McCurdy without a seat in the House of Assembly.

Much like our provincial survey released two weeks ago, Ms. Coady’s lead is built on a broad desire for change, positive feelings about Liberal leader Dwight Ball, and appeal of the Liberal brand among both Liberal and NDP voters.

Despite what would normally be very favourable conditions for an incumbent party (52% think province is headed in the right direction and 37% have a favourable impression of the Premier), the PCs are a distant third among committed voters in the district.

Download the full results deck here: https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Abacus-Newfoundland-and-Labrador-Political-Survey-St.-Johns-West-Nov-2015.pdf

Methodology

The random live-interview telephone survey was conducted with 500 eligible voters living in the provincial electoral district of St. John’s West. The survey was completed from November 8 to 12, 2015.

The margin of error for a probability-based random sample of 500 respondents using a probability sample is +/- 4.5%, 19 times out of 20.

The data was statistically weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched population of the electoral district.

Note the small sample sizes when reviewing results in subgroups.

For more information about the poll’s methodology or the results, please contact David Coletto, CEO at david@abacusdata.ca or at 613-232-2806.

Abacus Data Inc.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD.

Coming off of a Liberal sweep of Newfoundland and Labrador in October’s Federal Election, provincial Liberals in Newfoundland and Labrador have stormed into a 47-point lead province-wide in our latest survey of 800 eligible voters in the province.

Liberal support is at 66% compared with 19% for the PCs and 15% for the NDP. The 13-point rise in support for the Liberals comes largely at the expense of the NDP, which has lost 10 points since our last survey.

The NL Liberals lead by a wide margin in every region of the province including in Avalon/St. John’s where in June, we saw a much closer race.

To put these results in context, in the last provincial election, the Conservatives won a large majority of 37 seats with 56% of the vote.

The provincial Liberal support number is virtually identical to the support received by the federal Liberal Party (65%) in the election held on October 19.

Notably, 72% of those who voted for Justin Trudeau say they are voting for the NL Liberals. The NL NDP is only holding 51% of those who voted for the NDP federally while the NL PC Party are only earning the support of 49% of those who voted for the federal Conservative Party in October.

Accessible Voters

Not only has Liberal ballot support grown since June, but so has its pool of accessible voters. 73% of eligible voters in NL say they would consider voting Liberal, up 9 since June. The Liberal pool is almost twice as large as the NDP or PC accessible voter pools (37% and 32% respectively). The NDP pool is down 13-points since June.

Again, it is worth noting that the support level for the provincial NDP has followed a pattern similar to that of the federal NDP, with a sharp rise earlier in the year and then a significant drop more recently.

Direction of the Province

Remarkably, given the challenges facing the incumbents in this election, most think that the province is headed in the right direction, a view that has not really changed since June.

The desire for change in the province remains strong, with 85% wanting change and 60% saying they definitely want a change in government. These numbers are some 15 points higher than the expressed desire for change we measured in the federal election, which of course resulted in a defeat for the incumbents.

Among those who definitely want a change in government, 68% are voting Liberal, 18% are voting NDP, and 11% are undecided at this point. The massive Liberal lead is built on the fact that it has consolidated those who want change.

Top Issues

Respondents were asked, unprompted, to name the most important issue facing Newfoundland and Labrador. The economy and health care were the top issues mentioned, largely unchanged since June. It appears that the budget deficit has receded a bit in top of mind importance.

Leadership: Ball now 18 points ahead of Davis

Dwight Ball remains the most popular political leader in the province with 50% having a positive impression of the Liberal leader and only 10% saying they have a negative impression of him. Since our last survey, Mr. Ball’s personal numbers are up 6 points while PC Leader Paul Davis’ ratings have held steady. Meanwhile, NDP leader Earle McCurdy’s personal numbers have dropped by 10 points since June to 26%, below Mr. Davis.

Who Voters Think Will Win

When asked who they think will win the provincial election in Newfoundland and Labrador on November 30th, the Liberals were selected by 75% of eligible voters in Newfoundland and Labrador, a 10-point increase since June. Even a majority of PC and NDP voters think the Liberals will win the election.

The Economy in Newfoundland and Labrador

While voting intentions are weak for the PC Party, voters are feeling relatively good about the state of the economy and the performance of the incumbent government in managing it. 63% describe the economy in NL as either very good or good, and 51% think the provincial government has done a good job managing the economy.

The problem for the PCs is that only 32% of those who think the government has done a good job managing the economy are planning on voting PC, evidence that the desire for change is overshadowing any other perceptions or attitudes towards the Davis government.

The Upshot

As the 2015 Newfoundland and Labrador provincial election begins, the Liberal Party led by Dwight Ball is in a very solid position to defeat the incumbent Progressive Conservative Government.

This election, at least about the outset, is not about the economy, nor is it a function of deep unpopularity of the current Premier.

A majority of Newfoundlanders and Labradoreans think the province is headed in the right direction and that the provincial government has done a good job managing the economy. And only 25% have a negative feeling about Premier Davis.

Nevertheless, 85% want a change in government including 60% saying they definitely want change. Only 9% think it would be definitely best to keep the PCs in power.

The confluence of this mood for change with a good affinity for the Liberal brand and Mr. Ball personally, means the Liberals are heavy favourites to win the election.

While campaigns can always bring unexpected disruptions and shifts, the challenges facing the Conservatives and the NDP are very significant according to this poll. And there seems little doubt that part of the wind in the sails of the provincial Liberals has something to do with the recent success of their federal cousins. The opposite effect is in evidence for the NDP.

Methodology

The random live-interview telephone survey was conducted with 800 eligible voters living in Newfoundland and Labrador. The survey was completed from October 30 to November 4, 2015.

The margin of error for a probability-based random sample of 800 respondents using a probability sample is +/- 3.5%, 19 times out of 20.

The data was statistically weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched population of Newfoundland and Labrador. The tables within this report detail the weighted and unweighted counts for the sample.

Note the small sample sizes when reviewing results in subgroups.

For more information about the poll’s methodology or the results, please contact David Coletto, CEO at david@abacusdata.ca or at 613-232-2806.

Abacus Data Inc.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD. For more information, visit our website at http://www.abacusdata.ca/

Version française disponible ici

Background

On behalf of Universities Canada, Abacus conducted an extensive online nationwide study of Canadians’ views of universities. The sample size was 2,000 adult Canadians, between June 18th and June 25th.

Reputation of Canada’s Universities

The large majority of Canadians have a good impression of Canada’s universities. 77% say their view is positive, 20% are neutral, and only 2% have a negative view. Positive feelings are also the norm for polytechnics, community colleges and CEGEPs.

Image of Universities

In our survey we used a word association technique to explore impressions of universities in somewhat more detail. The results reveal that the large majority sees our universities as doing valuable research, being practical, dynamic and world-class. Fully 71% say our schools have a great future. There is a feeling that universities must always continue to change and adapt to the times.

The Most Important Role of Universities

While a university education is expected to play a positive role in the economic future of students, when we test for the most important role of a university education, the majority see it as helping people adapt and learn over a lifetime, and be good contributors to society. Roughly a third feel that the most important role is helping students achieve their economic goals, and teaching skills employers are looking for now. Universities are seen to bring benefits to students, to Canadian society and to the economy.

When asked to rate the performance of Canadian universities on a range of items, a large majority give them positive ratings when it comes to their impact on the economy, the value of the research they conduct, their teaching methods, and their ability to help students learn how to contribute to society.

Canada’s Postsecondary Institutions

Our research shows that the large majority (92%) of Canadians think governments should support a variety of forms of postsecondary education, not choose between these. Probing on the perceptions of different types of postsecondary education reveals that people see slightly different advantages for each.

Universities are seen as making a large contribution when it comes to helping solve big challenges, shaping leaders, and developing thinking and communications skills.

An overwhelming majority of Canadians also agree that governments should invest in universities, can afford to do so, and that universities provide good value for the money governments spend on them.

The Upshot

Canadians have a good impression of their universities and strongly believe that the country should continue to invest what it takes to offer world class education to our students. Most people see plenty of value in a variety of forms of postsecondary education and believe all merit policy support.

There is a belief that our universities do research that is practical and valuable for our economy and society and that with adequate funding and an eye on the need for continuous change, the best days of our universities lie ahead.

Methodology

The survey, commissioned by Universities Canada, was conducted online with 2,000 Canadians aged 18 and over from June 18 to 25, 2015. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data Inc.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD.