As 2016 winds down, approval of the performance of the Trudeau government sagged a bit to 50%, in line with the numbers achieved at this point last year, but down from the levels seen earlier in the year. 32% disapprove of how the government is doing.

The sliding approval rating is largely attributable to opinion shifts in Ontario and Alberta, and among Conservative voters. Liberal and NDP voters remain about as satisfied as they have been with the performance of Mr. Trudeau’s government. Quebec and BC show considerably less fluctuation.

When asked to rate the performance of Prime Minister Trudeau on a range of policy files, the results show:

• All 8 items that we track back to January show some deterioration in approval levels.

• The worst rated item (handling taxpayers money) still found a majority (62%) saying that they find the performance of the government “acceptable” or better.

• On 6 of the 10 items measured more than 3 in 4 voters said the Prime Minister was doing an acceptable or better job.

• The top-rated items were for Mr. Trudeau’s openness and acceptability, his cabinet choices, his appointments to the Senate, the way he has represented Canada internationally, the way he works with the provinces and his personal values.

• Two out of three (68%) deem acceptable or better the PM’s approach to energy and pipelines and almost 3 out of 4 (73%) say the same thing about the government’s approach to climate change and greenhouse gases.

Some regional differences worth nothing:

• Albertans are 19 points more likely than average to give Ottawa poor marks on climate change and greenhouse gases.

• Albertans are 15 points more likely than average to give Ottawa poor marks on energy and pipelines.

• On handling the economy, at least six in ten give Trudeau passing marks in every part of the country except for Alberta (44%) and Saskatchewan (51%).

Of the people who disapprove of the Trudeau government at year end, here’s what else we know:

• 60% voted Conservative in 2015, 15% voted NDP, and 9% voted Liberal.

• They are 7-points more likely to be 60 or older, and 7 points more likely to have a high school or lower education.

• They are more concentrated in Alberta (15% vs 10% of the population) and Ontario (42% vs 38%).

• Of those living in Ontario, 96% have a negative impression of Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne, 29-points higher than all Ontarians we surveyed.

• 53% have a positive impression of Stephen Harper, 26-points higher than average.

• 31% have a positive impression of Kevin O’Leary and 9% have a positive impression of Kellie Leitch (56% did not know enough about her to have an opinion).

When it comes to their reaction to various decisions or events related to the Trudeau government:

• Trans Mountain approval – 25% say the decision made them feel better about Trudeau government, 18% say it made them feel worse.

• They were 22 points more upset with the Northern Gateway pipeline rejection – 42% said that decision made them feel worse about the government.

• They are 29 points more upset with Liberal fundraising – 56% say it made them feel worse about the government.

• They are 29 points more upset with Mr. Trudeau’s statement on Castro’s death – 59% say it made them feel worse about the government. 29-points higher than average.

• They were 17 points more upset with the Mydemocracy.ca online consultation – 31% say it made them feel worse about the government

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson:

“An in-depth examination of what’s underneath the surface of these trends makes it clear that the headwinds experienced by the Trudeau government are mostly linked to unhappiness on the right side of the spectrum, in Alberta and in Ontario. Kathleen Wynne is a point of friction for swing voters in Ontario, and her current standing in the public opinion appears to be affecting the Liberal brand at a national level.

In Alberta, Mr. Trudeau’s standing is affected by an economy still reeling from oil price declines. His climate change policy mix has hardened the view of Alberta conservatives towards his government, something only partly mitigated by his approval of 2 of 3 pipeline proposals.

While political conditions at the end of the fall are not as favourable for the government as they were earlier in the year, they remain relatively robust. In terms of the dynamics that carry the greatest potential political consequences, continued good results in Quebec and BC will be welcome news for the government, while the political fortunes of Premier Wynne will be a factor to watch closely. “

According to David Coletto:

“Canadians remain quite satisfied with the performance of the federal government generally and the Prime Minister specifically. Although assessments of its performance have weakened, those who disapprove are disproportionately Conservative voters living in Alberta and Conservative-leaning Ontarians who are very displeased with Kathleen Wynne and the Ontario Liberal government.

What we see then is a trend towards polarization by ideology. Those on the left and centre of the political spectrum still hold the Trudeau government in high regard. Over 80% of those who voted for Mr. Trudeau and the Liberals and most NDP voters approve of the government’s job performance.

Those on the right, who voted Conservative in 2015, have become consolidated in opposition to the government. Our earlier survey showed that they were most likely to react negatively to news about Liberal fundraising and the PM’s statement on Castro’s death.

But as long as the government keeps centrist and progressive voters happy, it will continue to command strong approval numbers as we have seen throughout its first year in office.”

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 1,848 Canadians aged 18 and over from December 12 to 14, 2016. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 1,848 is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABACUS DATA INC.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value-added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, Ph.D.

Our latest nationwide public opinion survey explored a wide variety of topics. Our first release describes the current state of federal politics, including reactions to a variety of events and decisions.

Here’s what we see:

Party support has seen some softening in recent weeks, but remains at levels roughly equal to the result on election day just over a year ago.   The number of people who would consider voting Liberal today is 59%, off the highs of late summer, but still substantially ahead of their political rivals (NDP at 47%, CPC at 46%).

Current voting intentions show 44% would vote Liberal, 30% CPC, and 16% NDP, reflecting a 5-point increase in CPC support from November. Compared to last election day, the Liberals are up 4 points, the Conservatives down 2, and the NDP down 4.

In the provinces with the largest number of seats, the Liberals continue to lead by substantial, but not as robust margins, compared to November. In Ontario, the Liberals would win the support of 47%, the Conservatives 35% and the NDP just 13%. In Quebec, the Liberals find support from 46%, the NDP 21%, and the Conservatives 14%, with the BQ at 13%. In BC, Liberal support is at 42%, down from the 46% we measured in November, while Conservative support is up from 21% to 25%, and the NDP is at 21%, essentially unchanged from November, but off the lows measured in the summer.

Compared to the Election Day result last year, the Liberals are in a roughly equivalent place in Ontario and BC, and considerably stronger in Quebec.

In Alberta, the Liberals (29%) trail the Conservatives (56%), with the NDP at 7%, this is unchanged from our last wave. In Saskatchewan, the Conservatives have 51% followed by the Liberals at 28% and the NDP at 15%. In Manitoba, the Liberals (40%) and the Conservatives (37%) are neck and neck. Across Atlantic Canada, the Liberals have 55% support, well ahead of the NDP at 19% and the Conservatives at 18%, again unchanged from November.

The Liberals advantage continues to be based on dominating the NDP (56% to 21%) among self described “left of centre” voters and being more than 20 points ahead of both other parties among voters who say they are on the centre of the spectrum. The Conservatives enjoy a dominant two thirds support among those who consider themselves to be “right of centre” with the Liberals winning 25% of right of centre voters.

REACTION TO EVENTS

We explored reaction to a series of 8 events in the last several weeks of this Parliamentary sitting, from the mydemocracy.ca questionnaire, to the Prime Minister’s reaction to the death of Fidel Castro, and the decisions on three pipelines. Here’s what we found:

For all 8 items tested half or more said they either that they hadn’t heard of these topics or that they had no impact on their views of the government.

• Fundraising by the Liberal Party and the PM has been a topic of considerable coverage and political skirmishing in recent weeks. 31% say they haven’t heard about this, and another 32% say it has had no impact on their views, 27% said it made them feel worse about the Trudeau government, 9% better.

• The Prime Minister’s reaction to the death of Fidel Castro had an impact on about half of Canadians, by a margin of 2:1 people seemed disappointed in his reaction.

• The government substantially positive reviews for the decision to put Viola Desmond on a banknote: 37% said it made them feel better about the government, 6% worse.

• 3 out of 4 people had no awareness of or reaction to the government’s reaction to the Electoral Reform committee report and the mydemocracy.ca online consultation.

• While the online consultation attracted some criticism, the impact on public opinion was fairly muted: 14% said the mydemocracy.ca initiative made them feel better about the government, 14% worse.

The government reaction to the committee report produced more negative reactions, suggesting disappointment in the tone and substance, but still only 18% said this choice made them feel worse about the government.

PIPELINE DECISIONS IN DEPTH

All three pipeline decisions were slight net positives, in terms of the public reaction, on a national basis.

In the case of the rejection of Northern Gateway, 25% said it made them feel better about the Trudeau government, 20% worse.

For the Kinder Morgan and Enbridge Line 3 approvals, 25% said these project approvals made them feel better, 18% worse about the government.

In BRITISH COLUMBIA, 39% said the approval of Trans Mountain made them feel worse about the Trudeau government compared to 25% who said it made them feel better. 36% either didn’t hear about the decision or said it made no impact. Rejection of the Northern Gateway pipeline created an opposite reaction, with 37% saying it improved their view of the government while 21% said it made them feel worse about it.

In ALBERTA, half said the government’s decision to approve the Line 3 and Trans Mountain made them feel better about the Trudeau government while only 5% and 7% said it made them feel worse. 46% said the rejection of Northern Gateway made them feel worse compared with 13% who said it made them feel better.

In QUEBEC, where support for pipelines generally has been lower than in other parts of the country, two thirds said they hadn’t heard of the government’s decisions or said the decisions had no impact on their view of the government.   One in four Quebecers said the decision to reject Northern Gateway made them feel better while 10% said it made them feel worse about the Trudeau government.

Among 2015 Liberal voters, 16% said the decision to approve Trans Mountain made them feel worse about the government while 27% said it made them feel better. The majority hadn’t heard of the decision or said it made no difference.

Among Conservative voters, 41% said the decision made them feel better about the government while 11% said it made them feel worse.

Among NDP voters 35% said the Trans Mountain approval made them feel worse while 20% said it made them feel better about the Trudeau government.

On the Northern Gateway decision, the pattern is reversed. NDP voters were more likely to say the decision made them feel better than worse (37% better vs. 10% worse) while Conservative voters were more likely to react negatively (48% worse vs. 12% better). Liberal voters reacted favourably with 35% saying they feel better about the government after its Northern Gateway decision while 9% feel worse about the government.

To assess the political implications of these choices and events, it’s useful to remove the impact of harder core partisan views and focus on the voters who are “in play”. If we look only at voters who say they would vote Liberal today, but would also consider voting for another party (“Liberal Losable”, who amount to 24% of the population as a whole) here’s what this analysis shows:

• On 6 of the 8 items tested the majority were not affected in terms of any change in feeling towards the government. Only the banknote decision and the rejection of Northern Gateway had an impact on more than half of this voter group, and decidedly positive in both cases.

• Between 6% and 15% of these Liberal voters feel worse about the government based on a variety of these events, but in each case, equal or larger numbers said the item made them feel better about the government.

• The two biggest net positives for the government with these voters were the Northern Gateway decision and the Viola Desmond choice. Both pipelines that were approved had a positive impact on about a quarter and a negative impact on 15%-16%.

If we look at those who are not voting Liberal now or are undecided but would consider voting Liberal (“Liberal Winnables” who amount to 25% of the population), we find:

• Most of the events had little affect thus far on feelings about the federal government. Putting Viola Desmond on a banknote had the greatest potential pull for the Liberals. Rejecting Northern Gateway also had a net positive effect.

• The pipeline approvals had a mixed effect. Electoral reform matters had little effect. The fundraising questions had the largest net negative impact, with 21% saying it made them feel worse about the government and 7% better.

THE UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson:

“The choices the government has been making on energy and climate policy are probably the most politically challenging ones they face, in terms of trying to sustain support among a broad coalition of voters across the spectrum.

So far, the combination of decisions on carbon pricing, pipelines, and shifting energy use, is landing relatively well. Some are disappointed with a pipe that’s approved, others with a pipe that’s rejected. Some think the carbon price is too low or too slow, while others feel the opposite way. However, in terms of the overall impact on the support levels for the government, making choices on these controversial issues probably could have gone a lot worse. Of course, it’s fair to observe that the debate on the Trans Mountain pipeline is far from over – and the full impact will only be known over time.

Of the other issues and events we looked at, the debate about Liberal fundraising practices is the one that looks as though it could have some corrosive effect on Liberal support – but the impact so far has been pretty modest.

The results on the other matters we explored are another reminder that (remember Elbowgate) a lot of what else generates heat in day to day politicking in Ottawa goes unnoticed outside the smallish community of people who are highly tuned into politics.”

According to David Coletto:

“As the year comes to an end, the political environment in Canada looks much like it did at the start of the year. The Liberals hold commanding leads in Canada’s three largest provinces and have more support than on Election Day in October 2015.

In the past month, the Trudeau government has made some difficult decisions about pipelines, faced scrutiny over its fundraising practices, and criticism for its handling of its electoral reform pledge. The pipeline decisions seem to have been accepted by most Canadians as a reasonable balance. Even in BC, where 39% say the decision to approve Trans Mountain made them feel worse about the government, Liberal support is unchanged, and still above what the party received in the last election.

We have seen a decline in the pool of accessible voters for the Liberals, but we’ve seen a similar decline for three of the four major parties. In November 2015, 70% of Canadians said they would consider voting Liberal. Today, it’s down to 59%, the same level we found in the final weeks of the federal election campaign. Governing for a year has shrunk the tent a bit, but the Liberals remain in a far better place than any of their rivals.

The results also shed some light on the difference between what we in the “Ottawa bubble” focus on and think as consequential, and what the public hears and reacts to. The debate about electoral reform is a case in point. Over four in ten Canadians have not even heard of about the mydemocracy.ca consultation or the government’s reaction to the electoral reform committee recommendations. And among those who have, few have reacted in either a positive or negative way suggesting even after a barrage of negative commentary, the public has not really noticed nor cared.”

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 1,848 Canadians aged 18 and over from December 12 to 14, 2016. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys.   The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 1,848 is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABACUS DATA INC.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value-added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, Ph.D.

For more information, visit our website at http://www.abacusdata.ca/

In our latest survey of national opinion, we explored the issues people are concerned about across Canada today.

• One in three (34%) say that economic conditions in general are the most important issue facing Canada today. This is the number one concern of 47% in Alberta, and a much smaller 27% in BC.

• Another 9% say unemployment is their biggest preoccupation. Again, this number is 17% in Alberta, making it the second ranked issue in that province. This means that roughly two out of three (64%) Albertans put the economy and unemployment on the top of the priority list, almost twice as many as do across the country overall (34%).

• Health care ranks as the 2nd most important issue among people over 45, but only ties for 4th among those under 45.

• In BC, housing is the 3rd most important issue. In Ontario, housing is only the 6th most important issue. In the other provinces, less than 1% mention it as the top issue. Across the country, housing garners twice as many mentions as top issue among those under 45 compared to those over that age.

• Immigration is considered the most important issue by 5%, terrorism 2% and foreign policy or defence 1%. Concern about immigration twice as high in Manitoba/Saskatchewan as it is in Ontario.

• The environment/climate change is considered the top issue by 8% nationally. Women and those under 45 put a greater emphasis on this issue than men and older people, but the differences are modest. This issue ranks 5th among men and tied for 4th among women. BC leads in concern on this issue.

The preoccupations of Canadians vary substantially based on their partisan leanings.

• Among NDP voters, the top 3 mentions, were the economy (27%) poverty/inequality (25%) and the environment/climate change (14%).

• Among Conservatives, the top three were the economy (51%), health care (10%) and unemployment (10%). Immigration was mentioned by just 6%, and terrorism (3%), defence/foreign policy (0%), and law and order (4%) were much farther down the list of top issues. The environment/climate change was mentioned by 1% of Conservative voters.

• Among Liberal supporters, the top three were the economy (38%), health care (18%) poverty/inequality (13%), followed by climate change (9%).

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson:

“The differences in economic and social conditions are really evident when it comes to the preoccupations of people in different demographic groups and regions of the country. Housing is clearly a concern for young people and especially those in BC. The economic pain in Alberta is profoundly evident in these numbers too.

Beyond this, three other things stand out.

One is the wide gulf between Conservatives and others in terms of the urgency they feel about the climate change issue.

The second is that notwithstanding the unsettled global conditions and tensions few Canadians seem highly preoccupied with defense, security, terror or law and order issues – these were a lot more prominent during the years of the Harper administration.

Finally, while screening immigrants has become a major topic of conversation in the CPC leadership race, immigration is far from a major preoccupation across the country.

Conservative voters are twice as likely as Liberals and three times as likely as New Democrats to say it is their top issue, but even at that, only 6% of those who voted Conservative last fall put it at the top of their priority list.”

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 2,200 Canadians aged 18 and over from November 11 to 13, 2016. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 2,200 is +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABACUS DATA INC.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value-added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, Ph.D.

In our latest survey of national opinion, we explored more detailed assessments of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

• Since his swearing last November, Justin Trudeau’s favourable impression rating has ranged between 56% and 59%, with negative opinion ranging from 19% and 25%. Our latest findings show 57% favourable and 24% unfavourable. To add a bit more perspective to these numbers, Mr. Trudeau’s favourable rating since assuming the office of Prime Minister is more than 20 points better than in the months immediately before the election campaign.

This is an important reminder that opinion polls tend to show that people who haven’t held this office before aren’t always assumed to be as qualified as those who have – but this doesn’t mean they can’t win an election, or be judged competent after they do.

• Mr. Trudeau’s personal favourability (57%) is 11 points above his party’s standing in the polls. Views of the PM are central to the comfort people indicate with the government.

• Positive opinion towards Mr. Trudeau is the majority view everywhere but in the Prairies. In Alberta, where the Liberal Party has struggled for years, opinion is divided between positive (39%) and negative views (42%). Majorities of men and women, and across every age group, have positive views of Mr. Trudeau.

• Among partisans of other parties, Mr. Trudeau is not hugely polarizing. Only 24% of NDP voters, and 56% Conservative supporters have a negative impression of the PM.

• Positive feelings towards NDP leader Thomas Mulcair are steady in recent months, and 28% in the latest sounding. Interim Conservative leader Rona Ambrose has ranged from 14% and 19% positive opinion, with the latest sounding showing 17% positive and 23% negative views.

We updated our data on 10 detailed evaluations of the Prime Minister in this wave of surveying. The latest numbers show:

• On all 10 items, two-thirds or more of those surveyed said the PM was doing an acceptable or better job.

• Best assessments were for openness and accessibility, representing Canada abroad, the personal values he brings to the job, his cabinet appointments and his approach to working with the provincial Premiers. In each case, more than 80% said he was doing an acceptable or better job. His rating on openness and accessibility and for collaboration with the Premiers dropped by 5 and 7 points respectively since January.

• More than 3 out of 4 give the PM an acceptable or better rating for his approach to climate change and greenhouse gases. This item also saw a 5-point drop since January, which occurred primarily in the Prairie provinces.

• On his handling of the economy, 69% say the PM is doing an acceptable or better job, compared to 73% in January.

• When it comes to handling taxpayers’ money, 65% are satisfied today, down from 70% in January.

• Mr. Trudeau’s rating in dealing with the threat of ISIS has increased from 66% in January to 73% today.

• A marginal increase is also noted for the PM’s handling of the refugee issue: 71% today say he is doing an acceptable or better job, compared to 68% last January.

• Looking only at the proportion of good or very good ratings presents a fairly similar storyline.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson:

“A year after winning the job of running the country, Justin Trudeau has left a good impression among 88% of those who voted for him, and has been a positive surprise for a substantial number of voters who didn’t cast a ballot for his party.

Today, his performance assessments continue to show that his personal leadership is driving support for his party and confidence in his government, despite an economy that continues to experience headwinds. For many Canadians, the health of the economy is clearly not the only way they evaluate their political leaders.

A year of experience has caused a bit of deterioration on some performance items, although overall favourability towards the PM remains solidly, and consistently, in majority territory. This is a reminder that many voters “price in” the idea that governments will make errors and misjudgments, and tend to react to most events with that realization in mind.

Perhaps the most interesting aspect of these numbers is the evidence that the sharp partisanship that marked opinion in recent years has softened: barely half of Conservative voters don’t like Mr. Trudeau, and most NDP voters have a good feeling about the PM.”

According to David Coletto:

“Perhaps most striking in these numbers is the breadth and depth of Prime Minister Trudeau’s appeal. He is popular in almost all regions of the country, across all age groups, education levels, and genders. His popularity among young voters is something I’m watching closely.

Young voters were critical to the Liberal win in 2015 and they will be critical again in 2019. Right now, over six in ten Canadians under 30 have a positive impression of the Prime Minister. Less than one in five view him negatively. A year after his win, Mr. Trudeau’s shine with Millennials has yet to fade.”

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 2,200 Canadians aged 18 and over from November 11 to 13, 2016. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 2,200 is +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABACUS DATA INC.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value-added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, Ph.D.
For more information, visit our website at http://www.abacusdata.ca/