What about the millennials and #elxn43?

As you’re probably aware, our team spends a lot of time thinking about the impact of generational change on different sectors, the consumer market, labour market, and in public affairs.

There’s been a lot written through Election 43 about the impact that millennials could play in determining the outcome. Those born between 1980 and 2000 will make up the largest segment of the electorate and all millennials will be eligible to vote, for the first time, in this election.

What are Canadian millennials thinking ahead as Election Day approaches? Data from our recent Canadian Millennials Report and polling over the election can shed some light on the priorities of the generation, its mood, how it feels about the leaders, and how millennials intend to vote.

Here is what we found:

Affordability, Affordability, Affordability + Climate Change

To get a sense of the most important issues on the minds of Millennials, we asked our respondents to rank the top five priorities they felt were most important to determining their vote. Two in three ranked the cost of living in their top 5, 11-points higher than those in older generations.

Climate change and the environment, taxes, access to health care, and housing rounded out to the top 5. Millennials are 4-points more likely to rank climate change, 8-points more likely to rank housing, and 9-points more likely to rank public transit as a top issue than older generations.

On the issue of affordability, when we ask which party they think will make their life more affordable, 25% selected the Liberals, followed by the NDP and Conservatives at 21% respectively. 4% picked the Greens, BQ, and People’s Party while 20% were unsure.

Housing has also been a source of great concern for younger Canadians. In research we did for the Canadian Real Estate Association a year ago, the dream of owning a home was strong among millennials who didn’t currently own or rent their home.

“Doing Enough” on Climate Change?

In addition to housing, a political issue of particularly high importance to young Canadians is climate change. Although a significant proportion of respondents (38%) included taking action on climate change on their top list of government priorities in our Millennials Report study, what’s even more notable is that this issue was the most likely to be Millennials’ #1 priority (13%), even beating out housing (12%). Moreover, when asked about how they felt about the environment, only 13% said they identified as someone who didn’t “really care too much”. This exemplifies an important insight: climate change is not just something of interest to Millennial voters- rather, it is most likely to be utterly top of mind.

Since the early summer, when data above was collected, climate change has seemed to only gain further prominence in public discourse, with hundreds of thousands of Canadians participating in climate strikes just last month. Similarly, the environment has been a consistent topic throughout the campaigning, figuring centrally during many debates and interviews. Some may hope to capitalize on the level of dissatisfaction with existing efforts on the environment. Millennial dissatisfaction with existing efforts on the environment might be a contributing factor to why so many parties are putting this issue in their crosshairs.

As an example. Millennials are 8-points more likely to support the federal carbon tax than those from older generations (55% vs. 47%).

As Millennials continue to hold an increasingly influential role in the Canadian political landscape, so too can we expect the issue of the environment to grow in importance.

Indeed, the majority of young Canadians we studied felt that their generation cared more about climate change compared to older Canadians. While the environment may have simply been one of a number of prominent issues areas in this election, the overall trend seems to indicate that climate change could come to define a future political contest.

Pessimism, Hope, and the Future

While key issues like climate change and housing are doubtless on the minds of millennials in the week before election day, so too are some higher-order principles.

When we asked millennials a more abstract question like “is Canada headed in the right direction?”, respondents were divided. 41% felt Canada is headed in the right direction, while  38% felt the country was off on the wrong track.

Similarly, when asked about Canada’s future, the number of Millennials that felt mostly or very optimistic has dropped from 63% in January 2018 to 47% in June of this year.

Our data suggest that millennials heading into this year’s federal election were feeling less confident and hopeful about Canada. Something that may impact their vote choice.

Millennial Views on #Elxn43

Despite the overall generational trends identified above, the views of Millennials on the federal campaign are far from uniform.

When asked for their impressions of the slate of federal leaders, young Canadians reported a diverse set of views. The most popular leader is NDP leader Jagmeet Singh who had both the highest percentage of positive impressions at 47% and the lowest percentage of negative impressions at 18%  Singh’s image improved markedly after this performance in the English language debate.

Singh’s popularity makes a sharp comparison to Conservative leader Andrew Scheer (incidentally the youngest of the federal leaders), who evoked the highest number of negative impressions amongst millennials at 48%. Scheer’s positive impressions were the second-lowest of the federal leaders at 23%, outstripped only by Maxime Bernier of the People’s Party at 13% positive.

For Mr. Trudeau, millennials pose both an opportunity and a challenge. They were critical to his success in 2015 and will be important if the Liberals hope to be re-elected again tomorrow. 41% of millennials have a positive impression of Mr. Trudeau compared with 37% who view him negatively.

How will Millennials Vote?

Our latest suggests that more of those aged 19 to 39 will vote Liberal than any other party. The Liberals will get 34% of the millennial vote compared with 25% for the Conservatives, 23% for the NDP, and 10% for the Greens.

In Quebec, where the BQ has soared over the past few weeks, the Liberals are poised to get 43% of the millennial vote versus 20% for the BQ, 12% for the Greens, 10% for the Conservatives, and 9% for the NDP.

This 9-point lead for the Liberals is substantial and underscores the weakness of the Conservative Party among the largest generational cohort in the electorate. But it is also a step back for the Liberals who, according to our research in 2015, received 44% of the millennial vote in the last federal election compared with 24% for the NDP, 21% for the Conservatives, and 6% for the Greens.

We also find a difference in party support by gender. Millennial women are 9-points more likely to say they will vote NDP than millennial men. They are also 5-points likely to vote Conservative whereas millennial men are 7-points more likely to vote Green and 5-points more likely to vote for the People’s Party. We find no difference in Liberal Party support between millennial men and women.

Who would millennials prefer to be Prime Minister after the election? 38% want Mr. Trudeau followed by 26% for Mr. Singh and 24% for Mr. Scheer. 8% selected Ms. May.

Will they vote?

Throughout the campaign, the question we are asked the most is, will millennials vote this time? In 2015, youth voter turnout spiked by 15-points over the previous election.

Predicting turnout is very difficult but evidence from our final campaign survey suggests millennials say they are less likely to vote than other generations but whether turnout matches 2015 is hard to predict at this stage. If millennials are going to have a big influence on the outcome, they will need to turnout.

Inside the Mind of the Potential Millennial Voter

Though some might be tempted otherwise, the motivations of Millennials voters cannot be boiled down to the legalization of marijuana or the appeal of an Instagram follow from Drake.

The Millennial cohort itself is fractured and prone to an incredible diversity of thoughts and experiences, as evidenced by the high degree of heterogeneity displayed by respondents under 40 in our latest polling numbers.

Millennial Canadians are motivated by a complex and multi-dimensional set of factors. Many of the issues that drive young voters are shared across generations, like concern for the healthcare system or the need for a strong economy. However, our data suggest that there are a number of issues that Millennials are particularly or uniquely concerned with.

Affordability, particularly housing, seemed to preoccupy the largest number of the young Canadians we studied, the majority of whom felt that things haven’t gotten much better over the past four years.

Moreover, climate change continues to capture the attention of the young voters, who felt that their generation cared more than those older than them. Dissatisfaction with progress to date, the threat of a climate crisis, and a sense that economic gains do not benefit them are just some of the drivers of a general trend we observed of a steady decrease of optimism in Canada’s direction and future.

We anticipate this cocktail of strong factors, plus a twist of the unexpected, will shape the minds of Millennial voters as they step into the polling booth tomorrow.

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 2,000 Canadians aged 18 and over from October 17 to 19, 2019. A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20.  The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

MediaPolls

Election Poll: Regional races & turnout will decide an election with 2-points separating Liberals and Conservatives in Canada

Yesterday, we completed our final survey of Election 43, interviewing 2,000 Canadians from Thursday to Saturday. Here is our take on Canadian public opinion as polling stations are set to open tomorrow morning.

THE MOOD OF THE COUNTRY

In 2015, 60% of Canadians said they definitely wanted a change in government, and this translated into a win for the Liberal Party. At the start of the 2019 campaign, 51% said they definitely wanted a change in government. At the end of the campaign, those numbers are basically unchanged.

Regionally, since the start of the campaign, the desire for change in Quebec has dropped, it has held steady in Ontario, while rising 9-points in BC. The desire to see the Liberals re-elected has stayed consistent in all three of the largest provinces.

LEADERS: SINGH ENDS CAMPAIGN WITH THE BEST IMAGE BUT DOUBTS ABOUT WHETHER IT WILL PRODUCE SEATS; SCHEER’S IMAGE SUFFERS OVER CAMPAIGN

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh ends the campaign with the most favourable image: 40% positive and 24% negative. Since the campaign began, his favourables are up 15-points.

Mr. Trudeau’s personal numbers have stayed relatively stable and improved slightly in the final days of the campaign, with a 5-point increase in his positives since last week.

Mr. Scheer’s negatives have more than doubled throughout the campaign. For much of this year, the Conservative leader had a reputation advantage over Mr. Trudeau, now the reverse is true.

Ms. May has lost ground over the campaign. While she ends the campaign with a net positive impression, her favourables starting the campaign were 33% and have dropped to 27%.

In Quebec, Mr. Blanchet is viewed quite positively. 40% have a positive impression with 24% negative for a positive image of +16.

Max Bernier remains the most unpopular leader in federal politics, by a wide margin.

Regionally, Mr. Trudeau’s image has remained relatively stable in Quebec and BC while improving in Ontario.  Mr. Scheer’s image has become more negative across the three largest provinces, with his negatives rising 7-points in Quebec, 9-points in Ontario, and 9-points in BC.

For Mr. Singh, his positives have increased substantially in both Ontario (+15) and BC (+9) since the start of the campaign, while his image in Quebec remains very much where it was at the start of the campaign.

THE ISSUES

When we ask respondents to pick the top 5 issues that will determine their vote, the top most frequently chosen are the cost of living (60%), access to health care (44%), climate change and the environment (42%), taxes (42%), poverty and inequality (29%), and economic plan for Canada’s future (29%).  Little has changed in this regard since the beginning of the campaign.

The cost of living (+4), climate change and the environment (+4) and the carbon tax (+7) are the only issues to have shifted outside the margin of error.

Looking specifically at affordability and climate change, the cost of living is a top issue for a majority in every region of the country, across age, gender and partisan groups.

Climate change is more likely to be ranked as a top issue in Quebec (50%), Atlantic Canada (45%), Ontario (43%), and BC (41%) than in Alberta (27%) or Saskatchewan and Manitoba (39%). Those aged 18 to 29 are about 7 to 11 points more likely to rank climate change as a top issue than older Canadians. Women are 9-points more likely than men.

Climate change is also highly partisan. While a majority of Liberal, NDP, Green, and BQ supporters rank it in their top 5 issues, only 20% of Conservative supporters feel the same way.

Among those motivated by the cost of living or climate change as a top issue, we asked whether they felt the Liberals or Conservatives offered the best approach. On the cost of living, the Liberals lead by 8, 54% to 46%. On climate change, the gap is 62 points.

THE ECONOMY

Other than in Alberta, economic conditions do not figure prominently in this election, with 39% describing economic conditions in Canada as good, and another 29% as “acceptable.” While there is some correlation between vote intention and economic perceptions, the relationship is not particularly strong. For example, half of Conservative supporters describe the economy in Canada as good or acceptable.

Locally, we see similar responses. 42% describe the economic conditions where they live as good with another 31% saying acceptable. About one in four say they are poor. Those living in Alberta and Atlantic Canada are more likely to feel negative about the economic conditions while those in Quebec and Ontario are most bullish about the local economy.

CANADIANS THINK THE RESULT WILL BE CLOSE & MORE THINK LIBERALS WILL WIN

Almost all Canadians believe that the election is close, with 46% describing the election as very close and another 48% saying it will be pretty close. Believing the election is close is motivating. Those who think the election won’t be close are the least likely to vote.

In August, 34% thought the Conservatives would win the election, compared to 31% who thought the Liberals would. Today, 41% think the Liberals will win the election compared to 32% who say the Conservatives will.

Liberal voters are slightly more convinced than Conservative voters that their party will win.   Among NDP, Green and BQ supporters about 4 in 10 expect a Liberal victory, far more than expect the Conservatives to come out on top.  3 in 10 NDP voters expect their party will win the election.

PREFERRED PM: TRUDEAU LEADS SCHEER BY 6

When asked who they would prefer to as PM after the election, 37% picked Mr. Trudeau (up 2 since the start of the campaign), 31% prefer Mr. Scheer (down one), while 19% prefer Mr. Singh (up 6).

In Ontario, 40% prefer Mr. Trudeau to 30% for Mr. Scheer. In Quebec, Mr. Trudeau has a 14-point lead over Mr. Scheer (47% to 23%).  In BC, Mr. Trudeau is ahead of Mr. Singh (35% to 27%) with Mr. Scheer in third at 24%.

THE VOTE: LIBERALS HAVE SLIGHT LEAD NATIONALLY

Combining those who have already voted and those eligible to vote tomorrow, the Liberals (34%) have a slight lead over the Conservatives (32%) nationally followed by the NDP at 16%, the Greens at 8%, and the BQ at 8% (33% in Quebec).  Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party registers just 2% support.

In BC, we see a three-way tie with the Liberals at 33%, the Conservatives at 27% and the NDP at 25%. In Ontario, the Liberals have a 6-point lead over the Conservatives (39% to 33%) with the NDP at 19%. In Quebec, the BQ and Liberals are statistically tied with the BQ at 33% and the Liberals at 32%. The Conservatives are at 15%, while the NDP and Greens are both at 8%.

NDP support is strongest among those aged 18 to 29 at 26% and drops to 9% among those aged 60 and over. Liberal support is consistent across age groups, while the Conservatives are stronger among older voters and quite a bit weaker among younger ones.

REACTIONS TO POTENTIAL OUTCOMES

We asked respondents to react to different governing scenarios following the election, asking whether the outcome would be good or bad for Canada.

Overall, no one scenario found a majority saying it would be good for Canada, but the outcomes with the highest positive reaction were the NDP and Liberals governing together (39%), the NDP, Liberals, and Greens governing together (35%), the Conservatives governing alone (35%), and the Liberals governing along (34%).

Notably, the idea of a collaboration between the CPC and the BQ was the least popular scenario. Outside Quebec, a BQ/Conservative collaboration was universally viewed as a bad thing for Canada with 70% in BC, 64% in Alberta, and 65% in Ontario feeling it would be a bad thing for Canada.

Liberals generally thought that any governing arrangement that included the Liberals would be good, except if it included the Conservatives or the BQ.

Similarly, Conservatives liked the idea of the Conservative Party governing alone and didn’t like any other combination.  Interesting to note that Conservatives were more open to a collaboration with the NDP than with the Liberals.

NDP supporters were three times more likely to like the idea of a collaboration with the Liberals as one with the Conservatives.

BQ supporters were 8 points more likely to prefer collaboration with progressive parties rather than with the Conservatives.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “A tense political year will finish with a tense election day for Canada’s two largest political parties. The outcome will be a function of unique regional dynamics and which voters are most and least motivated to mark a ballot.

The election was always going to be a challenge for the Liberals, given the year that preceded the writ period.  While enthusiasm for the party and Mr. Trudeau is not what it was in 2015, antipathy is muted (outside Alberta), and progressive (Green and NDP voters) prefer a Trudeau government to a Scheer government.

The election campaign has not been a success for the Conservatives in terms of building public confidence in the party’s platform but especially in its leader.  Mr. Scheer has lost a lot of ground, while his Liberal rival has held his ground, and perhaps a bit better.  After a poor performance in the Quebec debates, Mr. Scheer did not have a breakthrough in the English debate.

If the Conservatives don’t win, our data reveals that Mr. Scheer failed to persuade voters that he was a better choice than Mr. Trudeau on his marquee cost of living issue. He also basically seemed to surrender on climate change.

The performance of Jagmeet Singh on the campaign trail was one of two major surprises.  Whether his personal popularity can help produce a better seat count than it looked like the NDP was headed for is an open question with 24 hours to go. The second major surprise has been the rising interest in the Bloc Quebecois.  Whether Bloc voters turn out in the numbers reflected in our polling may tell the tale of whether the Liberals or Conservatives win on Monday, and what size of a margin of manoeuvre a new government will have.

According to David Coletto: “The 2019 federal election ends very much as it started with a close race between the Liberals and Conservatives nationally. If these numbers hold until tomorrow night, the Liberals should win more seats and I expect to see a hung parliament as the most likely outcome.

A few final observations as the campaign ends.

First, if the BQ’s rise in Quebec materializes on Monday, it is perhaps the biggest surprise of the campaign. While there was always a chance that the BQ could reassert itself into federal politics, the extent of its rise was unexpected.

Second, while Mr. Singh and the NDP could lose seats on Monday, he’ll be the only federal leader to come out of the campaign stronger than when he entered it. His personal numbers are up substantially, and while the NDP’s share of the vote will likely be below its 2015 tally, Mr. Singh’s performance likely earned him another kick at the can.

While Mr. Scheer could end up becoming Prime Minister if Conservative turnout is stronger than the Liberals, he ends this campaign viewed more negatively than when it started and his net image is more negative than Mr. Trudeau’s. By making the campaign about affordability, the Conservatives sought to campaign on terrain that could unite its base with voters from other parties. To win, the Conservatives needed to gain a big advantage on the question, “Which party will make your life more affordable?” In the end, the 4-point margin it gained over the Liberals does not appear enough to counteract Mr. Scheer’s vulnerability on other issues including his inability to breakthrough in Ontario or Quebec.

For Mr. Trudeau and the Liberals, they entered the campaign vulnerable. The SNC-Lavalin controversy reset the public’s view of both the government and the Prime Minister, and it appears, if the results on Monday match our final poll, that the party hasn’t been able to overcome the damage that controversy had on Mr. Trudeau’s image. While his personal numbers are more positive than they have been in over six months, it appears the Liberals will come up short in rebuilding its 2015 coalition or building a new, more-progressive oriented one in 2019.”

Want to know what Canadian millennials are thinking this election, check out our new analysis of the largest generational cohort in the electorate: https://abacusdata.ca/final-abacus-millennials-elxn43/

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 2,000 Canadians aged 18 and over from October 17 to 19, 2019. A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20.  The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

MediaPolls

Election Poll: NDP and BQ rise as Liberals and Conservatives remain deadlocked

 This week, we completed a large national survey of 3,000 Canadians.  All interviews were done after the English language debate and before the French-language debate Thursday evening. Here’s what we found:

 LIBERALS AND CONSERVATIVES AT 32%; NDP AND BQ GAIN GROUND.

 If an election were held at the time of the survey, the Liberals (32%) and Conservatives (32%) are tied nationally followed by the NDP at 18%, the Greens at 9%, and the BQ at 6% (25% in Quebec).  Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party registers just 2% support nationally.  Most changes are within the margin of error, so we encourage caution in interpreting changes. Having said that, there is clear evidence of improvement for the NDP and the BQ.

In BC, we see a three-way tie with the Liberals and Conservatives at 29% and the NDP at 26%. In Ontario, the Liberals have opened up a 5-point lead over the Conservatives (37% to 32%) with the NDP at 19%. In Quebec, a 21-point lead for the Liberals last week has been reduced to 12-points as the BQ is up 6 to 25%. The Liberals lead by 10 in Atlantic Canada.

NDP support is strongest among those aged 18 to 29 at 26% and drops to 12% among those aged 60 and over. Liberal support is consistent across age groups, while the Conservatives are stronger among older voters and weaker among younger ones.

LEADER POPULARITY: SINGH SURGES AS SCHEER SLUMPS AGAIN

The biggest shift in our tracking comes in feelings towards NDP leader Jagmeet Singh. Since Oct 5, positive impressions of Mr. Singh are up 9-points to 41%, the highest we have ever tracked for the NDP leader. His negatives are also down 3-points to 22%.

The rise in Mr. Singh’s image is broad-based, with a few exceptions. While his positives have increased 9 points or more in BC (+9), Ontario (+9), the Prairies (+14), and Atlantic Canada (+17), in Quebec his improvement is marginal, from 31% last week to 33% this week.

The surge in positive views of Mr. Singh also crosses age groups. He’s seen an 8-point increase among those aged 18 to 29 (from 44 to 51%), those aged 30 to 44 (from 34% to 42%), and a 12-point increase among those aged 60 and over (from 23% to 35%).

Mr. Singh’s image has improved across the political spectrum, as well. He was already well regarded among those on the left (61% positive last week, 62% this week), but he improved 14 points among centre-left voters, 9 points among centre voters, and even 9 points among voters on the right.

Turning to the other leaders, Andrew Scheer has 30% positive and 47% negative opinion nationally this week.  Negative feelings towards the Conservative leader have risen 9-points since the start of the campaign.  Mr. Trudeau has 33% positive and 49% negative opinion across the country. Elizabeth May has 26% positive and 22% negative opinion.

PREFERRED PRIME MINISTER: TRUDEAU LEADS SCHEER BY 4; SINGH UP 7-POINTS SINCE THE START OF THE CAMPAIGN

When asked who they would prefer to be prime minister after the election, 34% picked Mr. Trudeau (down 1 since the start of the campaign), 30% prefer Mr. Scheer (down 3), while 20% prefer Mr. Singh (up 7). 11% would prefer Ms. May as Prime Minister and 4% Mr. Bernier.

In Ontario, 37% prefer Mr. Trudeau to 30% for Mr. Scheer and 20% for Mr. Singh. In Quebec, Mr. Trudeau has a 21-point lead over Mr. Scheer with Ms. May and Mr. Singh tied for third at 14%.  In BC, it’s a three-way tie with Mr. Trudeau at 29%, Mr. Scheer and Mr. Singh at 27%, respectively.

ALMOST ALL THINK THE ELECTION IS CLOSE; MORE THINK LIBERALS WILL FORM GOVERNMENT

86% think the election will be close while 14% think one party will win by a lot. This view is consistent across the country and demographic groups. It’s also consistent across party supporters. 84% of Conservative supporters, 87% of Liberal, 88% of NDP, 90% of BQ, and 86% of Green Party supporters believe the election will be close.

When asked which party they think will form the government after the election, 41% think the Liberals will win followed by the Conservatives at 32%. Only 5% think the NDP will win the election while 2% picked the Greens. 19% say they are not sure.

Most Liberal supporters think the Liberals will form the government; most Conservatives think the Conservatives will. Only 24% of NDP voters think the NDP will win.  The plurality of NDP, Green and BQ voters expect a Liberal victory.

IN A HEAD-TO-HEAD, MORE PREFER A LIBERAL GOVERNMENT OVER CONSERVATIVE ONE, ESPECIALLY AMONG NDP, GREEN AND BQ SUPPORTERS WHO THINK THE LIBERALS WILL WIN THE ELECTION.

To assess what might happen if voters consolidate around a choice between the two parties at the top of the polls, we asked respondents if they would prefer to see Mr. Trudeau or Mr. Scheer become PM after the election. Overall, 54% would prefer Mr. Trudeau and 46% prefer Mr. Scheer (this is unchanged from last week).

Among NDP, Green, and BQ supporters, 66% would prefer Justin Trudeau return as prime minister over Mr. Scheer.  Half of them (52% and 10% of the electorate) already think the Liberals will win, which means it will be harder for the Liberals to persuade them to vote strategically to block a Conservative win unless they become convinced in the next week that a Conservative victory is more likely.

Another 30% of these NDP/Green/BQ voters who want Trudeau over Scheer feel the Conservatives might win or the outcome isn’t clear (5% of the electorate). These may decide to vote that feeling more readily since they are not convinced right now that the Liberals will pull out a victory.

The Conservative path to growth is less obvious considering that its pool of accessible voters is smaller and fewer of those voting NDP, Green or BQ would prefer a Scheer-led government. Add that Mr. Scheer’s personal image has become increasingly negative over the campaign and it’s unlikely that the Conservatives can expand their support with the electorate. Their strategy now may rely more on turnout differential and hoping that those voting for their opponents are less motivated to vote than their supporters.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “The campaign has failed to find a defining idea or moment so far, and there’s a good chance that a lot of voters will make up their minds very late in this campaign, even as late as on the way to their local polling place.  Feelings about Mr. Trudeau have been pretty stable since February of this year, and support for the Liberal Party has been in a range that could produce another victory for much of the last couple of months.  At the same time, progressive voters are tempted by a progressive campaign that feels less tethered, and centre-right voters want some more conservative influences in Ottawa but are not looking for harsh austerity or social conservatism.

If Mr. Trudeau has yet to convince people to give him a second term, Mr. Scheer has had the most unsuccessful campaign so far – his agenda has not really captured the imagination of voters, and his personal image has disappointed more than it has attracted voters.

As I see it, the enthusiasm for a Scheer government is weak – the base of the Conservative Party is motivated more by a dislike of Justin Trudeau, and progressive values.  At this point, especially with a platform release that will expose them to criticisms about austerity, the Conservative leader seems to be focusing on motivating and driving turnout among those who have been aligned with his party for most of this year, rather than reaching new voters.

For Mr. Trudeau, the road forward is clear.  He may not be able to improve upon his personal numbers at this point, but there are many voters not yet in the Liberal column who would prefer a Liberal government to a Conservative one.  As of now, they are leaning Green, NDP, and Bloc Quebecois.  Much of that is about a preference for a progressive agenda, including climate action.”

According to David Coletto: “For almost four weeks of the campaign, vote intentions and attitudes moved very little overall. But in the past week, we have seen some substantial shifts in attitudes and intentions.

Mr. Singh has benefited from a strong showing in the English-language debate while the BQ has made gains in Quebec following a strong performance by Mr. Blanchet in the TVA French-language debate. The NDP and BQ gains have come at the expense of both the Liberals and Conservatives at this point, making their paths to a majority government more difficult and the outcome of the election muddier.

A plurality of Canadians thinks the Liberals are likely to form the government after the election. In a way, this could have given some voters who like Mr. Singh or Mr. Blanchet or their progressive agendas more comfort in being able to vote for their first preference without risking electing a Conservative government. If these perceptions shift between now and October 21, these NDP and BQ gains may reverse as almost all NDP, BQ, or Green Party supporters who think the Liberals are on their way to winning the election would prefer Mr. Trudeau to Mr. Scheer as Prime Minister.”

BTW: We are looking for a consultant or senior consultant to join our team. Find out more here.

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 3,000 Canadians aged 18 and over from October 8 to 10, 2019. A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.9%, 19 times out of 20.  The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

MediaPolls

Election Poll: Singh impresses at debate while Trudeau and Scheer break even

Following the English language network debate, we polled Canadians on their reactions. Here’s what we found:

13% WATCHED THE ENTIRE DEBATE

The vast majority (87%) didn’t watch the whole debate.  Just under half (47%) watched all (13%) of some (29%) of it.  Another 23% said they heard something about it from others, and 25% heard nothing about it.

REACTION TO THE LEADERS

In terms of the impressions left on those who watched the debate or heard about it from others, Mr. Trudeau recorded 36% positive and 37% negative opinion.  For Andrew Scheer, the results were similar with 36% positive and 38% negative.

Jagmeet Singh left positive impressions among 59% and negative impressions among 11%.

Elizabeth May left positive impressions with 39% and negative impressions with 16%.

Yves-Francois Blanchet left 21% positive and 29% negative feelings.  Maxime Bernier positively impressed 14% but alienated far more, at 42%.

Bernier turned off the most (42%) with the fewest (14%) saying he left a positive impression.

WHO DID MORE TO WIN YOUR VOTE?

Jagmeet Singh found 29% saying he did the most to win their vote followed by Justin Trudeau (23%) and Andrew Scheer (23%). Elizabeth May trailed at 7%, and the other two leaders combined for 7%.

WHO DID MORE TO TURN YOU AWAY?

Andrew Scheer did more than the others to turn people off (35%) followed by Justin Trudeau (30%), Elizabeth May (6%), Jagmeet Singh (6%). Other leaders (Blanchet/Bernier) combined for 10%.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “With five challengers, any incumbent faces headwinds in a debate of this sort and so the results for Mr. Trudeau suggest he held his ground.  For Andrew Scheer, the results were better than in his last outing, but it’s likely that his opening attack on Mr. Trudeau may have pleased his base but turned off accessible voters. For Jagmeet Singh, the debate could turn out to be a meaningful turning point for the NDP campaign, but time will tell if the impact is more on his personal reputation or on the course of the campaign overall. “

According to David Coletto: “Jagmeet Singh won the debate on Monday. Almost six in ten Canadians who watched or heard of it said he left them with a positive impression of them, 20-points more than any other leader. More important, among accessible NDP voters – those not intending to vote NDP but saying they would consider it – 32% thought he did most to earn his vote, slightly ahead of Trudeau.

It remains to be seen whether his performance will translate into more votes, but the NDP leader has some momentum now, and Canadians are increasingly warming to him.

Mr. Scheer, the debate was likely a draw in terms of its net impact. Mr. Scheer did little to impress potential Conservative supporters. Few thought he did the most to win their vote. Those already intending to vote Conservative approved of his performance and that was likely to point: motivate Conservative voters and while trying to divide more progressive voters away from the Liberals.

For Mr. Trudeau, the results suggest he largely held his own with almost all his current supporters thinking he did a good job and few potential supporters saying he did the most to turn them off. Most important, more potential Liberal supporters felt good about his performance than bad, suggesting he did what he needed to do: withstand the attacks, reassure his supporters, and contrast with Mr. Scheer among those both the Conservatives and Liberals are trying to persuade.”

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 2,347 Canadians aged 18 and over from October 8 to 10, 2019. A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.0%, 19 times out of 20.  The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

The sample of those who watched or heard about the English language debate is 1,535.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Polls

Support for Energy Transition is Strong and Broad

A strong majority of Canadians believe the transition to clean energy is more economic opportunity that economic downside.

Last week Clean Energy Canada issued a new report, The Fast Lane, which indicated that the country’s clean energy sector would add significantly more jobs than are expected to be lost in fossil fuels. New Abacus Data-Clean Energy Canada polling reveals that most Canadians see this potential too:

Across the country, 73% say they prefer to see Canada supporting the growth of our renewable energy and clean technology sectors, while 27% prefer to see Canada put more emphasis on extracting the most value possible from our fossil fuels. In Alberta, public opinion is about evenly split on this question, with 47% wanting more emphasis on cleantech and renewables.

73% say “success in developing and using clean energy technologies can create as many new jobs as those which would be lost in oil and gas” while 27% say “the global shift towards clean energy is going to end up doing serious damage to the Canadian economy no matter what we do.” A majority in every region, including Alberta (59%) believes there need not be an economic downside.

71% say “if we are thoughtful in planning a transition from fossil fuels Canada economy can be even more successful in the future,”, including 59% in Alberta, while 29% hold that “no matter how hard we try, Canada’s economy will suffer in the future if demand for oil and gas is replaced by other forms of energy.”

86% believe “Canada has the potential to be among the world’s most successful countries in developing and using clean energy technologies.”

86% believe “the pace of innovation in clean energy and technologies is quick, and Canada must be amongst the leaders in this energy transition.”

68% think “around the world momentum is with those who want action to combat climate change,” while only 32% think momentum is with those “who want to do little or nothing about it.” When it comes to the momentum in Canada, 71% say it is with those who want climate action.

QUOTES

“Canadians are broadly concerned about climate change and sense that momentum in favour of climate action growing around the world, and here in Canada. Most people believe there is upside for Canada in pursuing an energy transition, not only in terms of combating climate change but also in terms of economic risk and opportunity.  A very large majority are convinced that the clean energy and technology market is a massive opportunity for Canada and one that must be embraced.”

Bruce Anderson, Chairman, Abacus Data

“What these results show is that Canadians believe there’s a strong future for our clean energy sector. The good news is that we’re well-positioned to capitalize on this opportunity, with a clean energy sector already employing 300,000 Canadians in jobs across the country. Our latest research shows this number will increase to over half-a-million over the next decade if we continue with current climate policies. Going backward wouldn’t just worsen climate change, it would threaten a significant sector that Canadians are counting on to create opportunity as the world transitions from fossil fuels.”

Dan Woynillowicz, Policy Director, Clean Energy Canada

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted online using a random sample of 1,929 panelists invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.23%, 19 times out of 20.  The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

CONTACT

Keri McNamara
Communications Specialist
778-951-8060

Bruce Anderson
Chairman
Abacus Data
613-882-0929

Polls

Election Poll: Tight race with two weeks to go

Our latest nationwide survey measured the federal election trends.

Here’s what we found:

LIBERALS HAVE SLIGHT EDGE – TWO WAVES IN A ROW.

If an election were held at the time of the survey, the Liberals (35%) would capture slightly more support than the Conservatives (33%), followed by the NDP at 16%, the Greens at 8%, and the BQ at 5% (19% in Quebec). Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party registers just 1% support nationally.

The regional races tell a clearer story of where the race stands. In Alberta and Saskatchewan, the Conservative Party has a 37-point lead, an advantage which has widened from 30 points in August. In the rest of the country, the Liberals have consistently led the Conservatives this year, and since August, a 5-point advantage has widened to 9 points.

In BC, we see a 5-point lead for the Liberals, in Ontario, a closer 2-point race. The Liberals have a 27-point lead in Atlantic Canada and a 21-point lead in Quebec.

There are signs that the Liberals are seeing support rise among women, and also indications that support for the Green Party is waning.

Conservatives continue to have a massive lead among voters who self identify as right of centre, including a 49-point lead among “centre-right” voters. Among centre-left voters, the Liberals have a 33-point lead over the NDP, 3 points more than a few weeks ago.

Perhaps the most encouraging sign for the Liberals is this: among the roughly half (49%) of voters who identify as being in the centre of the political spectrum, the Liberals now lead the Conservatives by 6 (35% to 29%) with the NDP in third at 16%.

LEADER POPULARITY: SCHEER NEGATIVES UP AGAIN; SINGH WITH BEST NET FAVOURABLES

Mr. Trudeau has 35% positive and 47% negative opinion across the country. Those numbers suggest his positives have regained 4 points from the drop after the blackface story emerged.

Andrew Scheer has 33% positive and 44% negative opinion nationally. This represents a further growth of negative opinion towards the Conservative leader.

Jagmeet Singh is 32% positive and 25% negative, relatively steady from our last wave. Mr. Singh now has the most positive net impression of all the federal leaders at +7.

Elizabeth May has 26% positive and 22% negative opinion. These numbers are weaker than we had been seeing for the Green Party leader earlier in the year.

IN A HEAD-TO-HEAD, MORE PREFER A LIBERAL GOVERNMENT OVER CONSERVATIVE ONE, ESPECIALLY AMONG ACCESSIBLE NDP AND GREEN VOTERS.

To assess what might happen if voters consolidate around the Liberals or Conservatives as election day nears, we asked respondents whether they would prefer to see a Liberal or Conservative government. Overall, 54% would prefer the Liberals to 46% for the Conservatives.

Among NDP, BQ, and Green supporters, 60% or more would prefer a Trudeau government to a Scheer one.

MORE HAVE MADE UP THEIR MIND

As of Saturday, 69% of respondents say they have made up their mind about how they are going to vote in the election, up 6-points from a few weeks ago. 31% say they haven’t yet made up their minds.

Those aged 60 and over are the most likely to say they have made up with mind (77%), while those under 30 are the least likely (64%). Women are also less likely to have firmed up their vote choice than men (66% vs. 73%).

18% of Canadians are following the campaign very closely, unchanged from September 23. There’s been a 4-point increase in those following the campaign pretty closely (to 40%), while 43% say they are following the campaign a little bit or not at all.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “Since our last wave, another 6% of voters say they have made up their mind about how they are going to vote, bringing the total who say their mind is made up to 69%. The recent movement has tended to be more beneficial for the Liberals outside Alberta and beneficial for the Conservatives in Alberta – underscoring a polarized debate around climate, carbon and related issues.

The movement for the Green Party may signal a critical moment for Elizabeth May in Monday’s debate – her party has struggled when issues other than climate are in focus, and many climate concerned voters are concerned with avoiding a Conservative victory.

The Conservative campaign is not making gains outside its base level of support. Part of this seems to be a reflection of how people are reacting to Andrew Scheer, but it also seems that the Conservatives have tended to stay close to the policy positions favoured by the base, rather than try to reach out to hesitant urban, female and younger voters. If anything those voters may have found reasons for their hesitancy to be reinforced by the Conservative campaign so far.

For Mr. Trudeau and the Liberals, positive interest in the BQ and Jagmeet Singh are signals that they must concentrate not only on highlighting differences with the Conservatives.”

According to David Coletto: “With two weeks to go the race remains close, and we continue to see little movement in vote intentions. But beneath the surface, we see some shifts that might ultimately lead to some changes in how people vote.

Impressions of Mr. Trudeau seem to have rebounded a little from the impact of the blackface photos. Mr. Scheer’s negatives continue to rise as the campaign progresses. His negatives are now only 3-points lower than Mr. Trudeau, a gap that stood at 7-points when the campaign began.

Mr. Singh’s numbers have improved markedly throughout the campaign. Today, 1 in 3 have a positive impression of the NDP leader, a 7-point increase from a few weeks ago and the highest we have ever captured for Mr. Singh in our tracking.

It’s a cliché to say that today’s debate could be decisive for the campaign. But given that 30% of the electorate is still up for grabs, the race is so close, and many haven’t yet tuned in, it’s hard not to feel that it will matter.”

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 1,556 Canadians aged 18 and over from October 3 to 5, 2019. A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Polls

Election Poll: French Language Debate a Setback for the Conservatives

In our latest nationwide survey, we asked francophone respondents in Quebec some questions about the leaders’ debate held in French last week.

Here’s what we found (based on 373 interviews with francophone respondents in Quebec):

A SIZEABLE AUDIENCE FOR THIS DEBATE

14% said they watched the whole debate, 27% some of it, and another 37% heard about it from other people.

THREE LEADERS IMPRESSED. ONE DID NOT.

A majority of respondents felt the leaders of the Liberal (56%), BQ (55%) and New Democratic (53%) parties made a positive impression during the course of the debate.  Few felt that Blanchet (14%), Singh (15%), or Trudeau (20%) left negative impressions.   In contrast, 21% felt Andrew Scheer made a positive impression and 55% said he left a negative impression.

WHO DID MOST TO WIN YOUR VOTE?

Asked which one leader did the most to win their votes, we found a tie between Justin Trudeau (30%) and Yves-Francois Blanchet (30%) followed by Jagmeet Singh (14%) and Andrew Scheer last at 10%.

WHO DID MOST TO TURN YOU OFF?

Asked which one leader did the most to turn them away, Andrew Scheer led (36%) followed by Justin Trudeau (26%), Yves-Francois Blanchet (13%), and Jagmeet Singh (8%).

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “Heading into Monday’s debate, all leaders have a lot at stake.  The public is beginning to focus on the campaign and the results from the Quebec debate will raise the pressure on Conservative leader Andrew Scheer to rebound from a performance that probably set his party back in Quebec.

For Mr. Trudeau, the stakes remain very high, as his party is locked into a tight battle with the Conservatives in many parts of the country – a good performance can add some momentum at a crucial moment in the campaign.

But the stage on Monday will be more crowded, with two additional leaders (Elizabeth May and Maxime Bernier) vying for a share of voice in this campaign. How those dynamics unfold is impossible to predict, but likely to be material.  Ms. May will be looking to help reignite sagging Green Party support, and this may be the only chance for Maxime Bernier to pitch Conservative voters to mark a ballot for him and not Andrew Scheer.  Mr. Scheer will need to find a way to be back on the offensive, after several days where the focus was on him, and was largely unflattering.  “

According to David Coletto: “Based on people’s reaction to the debate, Andrew Scheer did not have a good night. Mr. Blanchet and Mr. Trudeau can split the spoils of victory. Mr. Singh performed well and francophones responded favourably to what they saw, but it may not be enough to boost NDP fortunes in Quebec.”

How do we know what issues might be key in an election? An explainer with my friends from @CPAC_TV #elxn43 pic.twitter.com/QxkhqTHTEx

— David Coletto (@Colettod) October 5, 2019

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 373 francophone Canadians aged 18 and over from October 3 to 5, 2019. A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 5.0%, 19 times out of 20.  The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Polls

Election Poll: A better week for Trudeau’s Liberals

By Bruce Anderson & David Coletto

We’ve completed another election survey this week. Here’s a snapshot of what we are seeing:

1. The national race remains tight, but the Liberals are 3-points better positioned than last week, with 35% support, while the Conservatives have dropped a point to 33% (that shift is within the margin of error). The NDP at 15% (unchanged) and the Green Party 10% (unchanged).

2. Regionally, the Liberals have a 16-point lead in Atlantic Canada, a 17-point lead in Quebec, a 7-point lead in Ontario, and trail by wide margins in the Prairies. In BC, the Liberals have opened up a 7-point lead with 33% support followed by the Conservatives at 26% and the NDP at 25%, the Greens further back at 12%. In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois is polling at 20%, 2-points back of the Conservatives at 22%.

3. The Liberals lead among those aged 18 to 29 (by 18 over the Conservatives) and by 7 among those aged 30 to 44. The Liberals and Conservatives are tied among those aged 45 to 59 while the Conservatives lead by 11 among those aged 60 and over. Over the past week, the Liberal vote share among younger voters has surged to 42%, a 9-point increase.

4. In the past, educational attainment was a key driver in vote intentions, but our latest survey finds less division. The Liberals and Conservatives are tied among those with high school or less and among those with college education. Among those with a university degree, the Liberals lead by 10 points. In the past, the Conservatives could count on more support among those with high school or less. That gap appears to have closed over the past few weeks.

5. Justin Trudeau’s personal ratings have recovered a bit. His positives are up 3-points to 34%, and his negatives are down 2 to 47% for an overall net -13 image score. Mr. Trudeau’s net favourability is -11 in BC, -13 in Ontario, +1 in Quebec. He is -13 among women and +5 among voters under 30.

6. Andrew Scheer saw his numbers go in the opposite direction this week. His positives dropped a point to 31%, and his negatives are up 3-points to 42% for an overall image score of -11. His approval rating is -12 in BC, -15 in Ontario and -15 in Quebec. It is -20 with under 30 voters and -18 among women.

7. Jagmeet Singh had a better week this week, with his positives rising 6-points to 31% and his negatives dropping 4-points to 24% for a +7 overall. He is +10 in BC, +9 in Ontario, +9 in Quebec, +12 among women and +31 among voters under 30.

8. Elizabeth May had a slightly improved week with her positives up 2 and her negatives down 2 for an overall net image score of +9. She is +12 in BC, +10 in Ontario, +9 in Quebec, and +21 in Atlantic Canada.

9. Maxime Bernier is underwater everywhere at -32 nationally, -29 in BC, -29 in Ontario, -38 in Quebec, and – 4 among self-described right of centre voters. He is -21 among centre-right voters.

10. Interest in the campaign is largely unchanged from the start of the campaign. In our survey completed before the campaign started, 55% reported high interest in the campaign, the same as today.

11. The Liberals now have the largest pool of accessible voters, up 3 points over the past week to 52%. The Conservatives have 46%, followed by the NDP at 44%. 40% of people would consider voting Green. In Quebec, 36% say they are open to voting for the BQ, unchanged from last week when it was 35%.

12. Asked if it came down to a choice between Mr. Trudeau and Mr. Scheer as Prime Minister, 54% would prefer Mr. Trudeau while 46% would prefer Mr. Scheer. Among younger voters under 30, the split is 65% Trudeau to 35% Scheer. Among women, Trudeau leads Scheer by 14-points while Trudeau has a 1-point lead among men. Regionally, Trudeau leads in BC (+14), Ontario (+8), Quebec (+20), and Atlantic Canada (+28) while Mr. Scheer leads in Alberta (+26) and SK/MB (+8).

13. When we look at attention to the blackface photo story, 65% (54% last week) said they heard a lot about the blackface story, another 29% have heard some. 6% had not heard of it at all, down 6 from Sunday.

14. Asked how they reacted to the story, 42% (42% last week) said it didn’t really bother them, 38% (34% last week) said they didn’t like it but felt Mr. Trudeau apologized properly and felt they could move on, and 20% (24% last week) said it truly offended them and their view of Mr. Trudeau changed for the worse.

15. Among those aware of the photos, asked how this might affect their vote on Election Day, 39% (40% last week) said they were not planning to vote Liberal anyway, 52 % (48% last week) said it would not affect their vote and that they would decide on other issues. 10% said it was negatively affecting their inclination to support the Liberals (12% last week).

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “The race is far too close for either of the leading parties to feel confident of a victory, but if the last week seemed like it doomed the Liberals’ hopes of a second mandate, these numbers say the Liberal Party is, if anything, more competitive than it was. This may have to do with the fact that the large majority saw Mr. Trudeau as having made a foolish mistake, and owning his apology in a forthright and unqualified way – something voters appreciate and seldom see.

It is notable that despite circumstances that might have worked to his advantage (dramatic trouble faced by the Liberal leader, strong Conservative financial and organizational resources and without the burden of accountability that comes with being in government) Andrew Scheer does not seem to be winning a lot of hearts and minds to this point in time.

It may be that fiscal conservatives are wondering about whether his platform feels as fiscally cautious as they expected, centrists may be disappointed in his climate change position, or worried about Ford-style cuts, and progressive voters may feel doubtful of his personal commitment to equal rights for women and same-sex couples. We may explore in more detail some of the hypotheses for the fact that the Conservative have not capitalized on the opportunities, in an upcoming release.”

According to David Coletto: “For the first time since May 2019, we have the Liberals numerically ahead of the Conservatives nationally in our horserace numbers. Built on growing support among younger Canadians and Ontarians, the Liberals are in a much stronger position today than even a few days ago.

But it’s also worth remembering that while the campaign has been on for two weeks, interest in the campaign hasn’t moved and many people are still saying they could change their mind about their party preference.”

By the way, Abacus Data is growing and looking for an analyst to be based in Ottawa. Find out more here.

pic.twitter.com/h8RDjXeYMh

— David Coletto (@Colettod) September 22, 2019

DATA GRAPHICS

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 1,975 Canadians aged 18 and over from September 23 to 26, 2019. A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20.  The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Polls

3 in 4 Canadians welcome student marches for climate change

87% would allow their child to march.

In the wake of several recent marches for climate action and with mass marches approaching on Friday (September 27), including one in Montreal with climate activist Greta Thunberg, the latest Abacus Data-Clean Energy Canada poll reveals:

  • Across the country, 74% say that marches of students in different parts of the world calling for more action on climate change are a good idea. Women (78%), parents (79%) and those under 30 (82%) are especially likely to feel this way. It bears noting that a healthy majority of people over age 60 (68%) also support these marches.
  • A narrow majority of voters on the right of the spectrum (55%) express support for the marches, while 76% of voters on the centre and 85% of voters on the left feel they are a good idea.
  • Belief in the value of these marches is the majority view in every region of the country as well, including Alberta (63%).
  • Asked if they were or are a parent how they would feel about their child participating in such a march, 87% say they would support their child marching, including 48% who say they would do so happily, and 39% with some hesitation. Just 13% would refuse to let their children march, including 20% in Alberta and 24% of voters on the right.
  • One in five people (20%) say the student marches make them a lot more inclined to support climate action, and another 54% say “quite a bit” or “somewhat” more likely to support climate action. Another 14% say they already fully support climate action.  Just 12% say the marches have the opposite effect on their opinion, including 28% of voters on the right of the spectrum.

QUOTES

“Greta Thunberg has helped create a new and compelling form of advocacy on the climate issue by drawing sharp attention to intergenerational responsibility. A sense of moral obligation is felt by a very broad majority of Canadians, and many people feel more compelled to support urgent climate action because of the power of this youth movement.”

—Bruce Anderson, Chairman, Abacus Data

“It’s our kids who will be most impacted by climate change. And they are making it clear today how the leaders of tomorrow will look back on us. Canada has one of the largest carbon footprints of any country in the world. We must now act responsibly considering our direct contribution to climate change, our position of influence on the world stage, and our capacity to develop and deliver clean energy solutions.”

—Dan Woynillowicz, Policy Director, Clean Energy Canada

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted online using a random sample of 1,929 panelists invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.  The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Dan Woynillowicz and Bruce Anderson are available for interviews.

Clean Energy Canada (cleanenergycanada.org) is a climate and energy think tank housed at the Centre for Dialogue at Simon Fraser University. We work to accelerate our nation’s transition to a clean and renewable energy system.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

CONTACT

Keri McNamara
Communications Specialist
778-951-8060

Bruce Anderson
Chairman
Abacus Data
613-882-0929

Polls

Election Poll: A sensational week, yet a tight race remains

In the days following the bombshell revelations of photographs of Justin Trudeau in blackface we have been polling Canadians on the election and specifically on their reaction to that development.

Here’s what our data show.

1. The national race remains very tight, with the Conservatives holding 34% support, the Liberals 32%, the NDP at 15%, and the Green Party 11%. Each of these numbers is within a percentage point of the result we found in our last survey, which took place before the election campaign began.

2. Regionally, the Liberals have a wide lead in Atlantic Canada and Quebec, a 4-point lead in Ontario, and trail by wide margins in the Prairie provinces. In BC, the Liberals and Conservatives are tied at 30% with the NDP at 22% and the Greens at 15%.

3. Justin Trudeau’s personal ratings have slipped. His positives are down 4-points, and his negatives are up 3. At the same time, Andrew Scheer, Jagmeet Singh and Elizabeth May have all seen deterioration in their ratings as well. Ms. May’s numbers are the worst we have seen for her since March of this year. Mr.Scheer’s positives have dropped 3-points, and his negatives have hit a new high at 39%.

4. 63% of voters say they have made up their minds how they are going to vote, and 54% say they have been following the campaign very or pretty closely. Just under half say they have been paying only a little or no attention and 37% say they haven’t yet made up their mind about how they will vote.

5. 41% think the Conservatives will win, 40% think the Liberals will. Regionally, most in the Prairies think the Conservatives will win with about one in four thinking the Liberals will win. In BC, 39% think the Liberals will win, 35% Conservative, and 14% NDP. In Ontario, 43% feel the Conservatives will win with 39% predicting a Liberal win. Only 9% in Ontario feel the NDP will win. In Quebec, half think the Liberals will win with 27% saying the Conservatives and 5% NDP.

6. Asked what party they would like to see victorious, 32% say the Conservatives, 30% the Liberals, 16% the NDP and 11% the Green Party.

7. Asked if it came down to a choice between a Liberal and a Conservative government, 53% would prefer a Liberal government, 47% a Conservative government. In BC 58% would prefer the Liberals, in Ontario 55%, in Quebec 56%.

8. 53% said they heard a lot about the blackface story, another 34% have heard some. 13% had not heard of it at all.

9. Asked how they reacted to the story, 42% said it didn’t really bother them, 34% said they didn’t like it but felt Mr. Trudeau apologized properly and felt they could move on, and 24% said they were truly offended and it changed their view of Mr. Trudeau for the worse. Worth noting is that of that 24%, two-thirds are Conservative voters.

10. Among those aware of the photos, asked how this might affect their vote on Election Day, 40% said they were not planning to vote Liberal anyway, 48% said it would not affect their vote and that they would decide on other issues. Of the 12% who said it was affecting their thinking, half said they were considering the Liberals but leaning away from them because of the incident and half said they were considering the Liberals but cannot support them now.

11. That 12% tend to be younger with 71% under the age of 45. 62% voted Liberal in 2015 while 23% voted Conservative. 27% identified as a member of a visible minority or racialized community, 9-points higher than the national average in our sample. 57% of this group would still prefer the Liberals to win compared with 43% who prefer the Conservatives.

12. Those who identify as members of a visible minority community and voters under 30 were both 9 points more likely to say they were bothered by the photographs compared to non-visible minorities and older voters. However, both groups were also 12 points more likely to say that they accepted the apology and could move on. Both groups also more likely than average to say this has caused them to reconsider whether they will support the Liberals, suggesting that the ultimate impact on their voting intention is somewhat uncertain.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “This election may feel to combatants as though it has been going on for a long time, but many Canadians have not yet been following it very closely.  Still, last week Mr. Trudeau’s reputation was damaged, albeit perhaps less than might have been surmised or expected.

Other leaders have not gained at Mr. Trudeau’s expense through this period, and the relative standing of the parties is largely unchanged.

It’s clear that Mr. Trudeau wearing blackface has affected many people, and the impact on their final decision can’t really be predicted. The race is close enough that it could make the difference and cause the Liberals to lose office – but the results also show that Mr. Trudeau’s apology was accepted by many people and that the plurality is inclined to say other issues will have a bigger impact on their choice.

According to David Coletto: “The photos and video released late last week was a shock that changed the focus and conversation of the election campaign. But so far, evidence that they have fundamentally changed people’s impressions or intended voting behaviour is quite limited.

The race remains very close, all the party leaders are viewed less favourably than at the start of the campaign, and most people say that so far, the events of the past few days won’t change their vote. But two key voter groups for the Liberals are more likely to say it might impact their choice.

Perhaps most important, among those who are aware of the story and say it has them reconsidering their support for the Liberals, 57% would prefer the Liberals to win, and 43% would prefer the Conservatives. The campaign has been, to a large degree, about this choice and will continue to be so.

Ultimately, the blackface photos may be the campaign moment that prevents the Liberals from being re-elected. But the initial reaction and how voters are reacting so far suggests there’s way too much campaign left to make that conclusion today.”

By the way, Abacus Data is growing and looking for an analyst to be based in Ottawa. Find out more here.

DATA GRAPHICS

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 1,929 Canadians aged 18 and over from September 18 to 22, 2019. A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20.  The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

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