Beyond the LCBO? Broad support for Liberalizing Alcohol Sales in Ontario

At the start of 2019, we explored public attitudes toward liberalizing alcohol sales in Ontario. The provincial government expanded store hours in December and has started a consultation to look at other ways of changing the way alcohol is sold in the province. Note, this survey was not commissioned or paid for by an organization.

SUMMARY: Overall, we find broad support for liberalizing alcohol sales. Despite widespread satisfaction with the LCBO, most Ontarians support expanding grocery sales to include spirits, allowing convenience stores to sell wine and beer, and allowing private wine shops to open across the province.

THE CONTEXT

Four in ten Ontario adults drink alcohol at least once per week while 24% say they do not drink alcohol at all. Another 37% drink alcohol less than once a week. Men and older Ontarians are more likely to consume alcohol frequently. There is little variation across provincial party support. Consumption habits are highly correlated to support for liberalizing alcohol sales in Ontario.

Most Ontarians have shopped at the LCBO and a large portion has bought beer or wine from a grocery store. 40% shop at the LCBO regularly or occasionally while 1 in 5 Ontarians say they buy wine or beer at grocery stores regularly or occasionally.

In a very short period of time, many Ontarians have taken advantage of the wine and beer now available in many grocery stores across the province. Despite limited selection, there’s already wide take-up of the channel as a source for alcohol.

Ontarians are also generally satisfied with their experience at the LCBO. Satisfaction with the LCBO is particularly high with its selection, overall shopping experience, and the staff available to help customers. Most also say they are satisfied with the selection of new and interesting products and even the price.

Views about the experience buying wine and beer at grocery stores similar to that at the LCBO. Most Ontarians who have purchased those products at a grocery store report being generally satisfied with all aspects of the experience, although the intensity of satisfaction is more muted than with the LCBO suggesting there may be a desire from consumers for more choice and a better experience within grocery stores.

REACTION TO IDEAS TO LIBERALIZE ALCOHOL SALES IN ONTARIO

We wanted to gauge support or opposition to a number of ideas being floated around by the Ontario government and stakeholders to liberalize alcohol sales in the province. For all ideas, a majority of respondents either strongly support or support the idea demonstrating broad acceptance and support for liberalizing alcohol sales.

For example, two in three support the provincial government’s decision to extend the hours the LCBO and private alcohol retailers can sell alcohol in the province. There’s no political divide on this idea and finds support across age groups, regions of the province and among both men and women.

Six in ten Ontarians would support adding spirits onto grocery store shelves along with beer and wine with strong support four points higher than those who strongly oppose the idea. Support for allowing grocery retailers to add spirits to their shelves crosses all age groups (although younger Ontarians are more supportive) and party supporters.

Most Ontarians would also support allowing private, specialty wine shops to open in Ontario. This idea found the broadest support with 3 in 4 supportive and only 8% strongly opposed.

Although more divisive, one in two Ontarians (51%) support expanding alcohol sales into convenience stores with support highest among Ontarians under 45, regular consumers of alcohol, and among PC and Liberal party voters.

UPSHOT

As the Ford government consults with stakeholders and the public on its plan for liberalizing alcohol sales in Ontario, our research finds broad support for many forms of liberalizing alcohol sales.

Expanded hours, expanded selection at grocery, extending beer and wine sales to convenience stores, and allowing specialty wine shops to open are supported by at least a majority of Ontarians, and in some cases, large majorities.

Younger Ontarians and men are particularly keen to see more liberalization but support is broad across all demographic, regional, and political groups.

It seems that this is a policy idea with legs as consumers seek more choice, customization, and competition in the province’s alcohol market.

For more information about this survey, please contact David Coletto at david@abacusdata.ca
and follow him on Twitter @colettoD.

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 800 Ontarians aged 18 and over from January 11 to 14, 2019. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.5%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

MediaPolls

Before the Bell: Climate Change and the Environment

Will climate change and the environment be a ballot box question this year?

David Coletto joins the team at the Sixth Estate and a stellar line up of guests to discuss the issue.

Hosted by veteran journalist Catherine Clark, the show is broken down into three segments.  In The Pulse, we ask opinions of expert guest pundits on pressing issues and interacts with the audience through polling technology to gain their reactions.  Next in the The Policy segment, Catherine Clark invites newsmakers to the stage to talk about themed issues from their unique perspectives. In between interviews, Catherine asks the audience to submit questions electronically and vote up questions they want answered. After all guests have been interviewed, they remain on stage for the final segment called The People. Here Catherine engages the newsmakers in discussion by asking the most popular audience-generated questions.

Watch the full episode below and learn more about the show here.

MediaPolls

DIY ANCESTRY: Genetic Testing & Corporate Trust

The research cited below is sourced from an in-depth study of how consumers’ adoption of emerging technologies intersects with data privacy and public trust. If you would like to see more analysis from our work, please reach out to Executive Director ihor@abacusdata.ca for more information.

-Direct to consumer genetic testing driven by ancestry; health a tertiary consideration.

-Genetic genealogy industry grappling with trust deficit.

-Consumers more comfortable sharing genetic data than movement, financials, private messages.

Know thyself. Not just ancient Greek philosophy, but a marketing proposition genetic genealogy firms like 23andMe, AncestryDNA and MyHeritage are using to encourage consumers to try a new suite of at home testing services. In a departure from selling glossies to travel starved suburbanites, even National Geographic has gotten in on the action.

Having evolved in the last decade from the sole domain of labs & hospitals to an easy to use, saliva-based, direct-to-consumer offering, these genetic testing kits offer a seductive sell: a robust, scientific estimate of who you are, how you’re built, and where you’re from.

When we surveyed Canadians last summer (2018), about 11% of the adult population – (~3 million Canadians) – reported having used a direct genetic testing & analysis kits. Rich or poor, old or young, the technology has been used in equal measure by every group.

Though there are plenty of health applications, understanding history/ancestry is the big driver – the reason 7 of every 10 kit users ordered the test. Marketing at its core is an appeal to an individual’s identity. Have a product whose direct value proposition is telling you who you are and where you come from? Seems like an easy sell.

Yet in our age of data breaches and institutional trust deficits things are not so straightforward. Even if a life of crime or misattributed paternity surprises do not seem likely in your future, one could imagine why Canadians might be hesitant to trust companies with their data.

And so we surveyed those who have not taken the test to rate their feelings around the value proposition between several pairs of polarities, including whether in their view:

  • There is more benefit to the consumer vs. more benefit to the companies collecting the data.
  • The benefits outweigh the risks vs. risks outweigh benefits.
  • Information is being kept securely vs. information is insecure.
  • Information is used only for the benefit of consumer understanding vs. information is used in many other ways that benefit the company.

The prevailing sentiment is one where the fundamental trade off is seen as inherently tipped against the customer. More see risks than benefits, information is assumed to be unsecure. Crucially, consumers see far more upside for the companies on the receiving end of the data than they do for themselves. The balance of opinion swings the other way among test users, with many more believing that the technology benefits the consumer more than the company.

This attitude is not unique to genetic information. When we explored the relative comfort/discomfort Canadians felt with companies using various information sets for-profit, most were comfortable with the use of two health adjacent areas: daily diet and exercise data.

Genetic information is in a secondary tier of comfort along with social network activity – about half are opposed to corporate use of the information, while a little less than half are comfortable enough with it. It probably says something profound that financial information is considered far more sacrosanct in this context than your genetic code.

Despite these reservations, about 60% of the adult population in Canada were open to ordering a home kit genetic test. Most are in no hurry, and 18% would like to do one or are actively looking into it, leaving much room to grow for the sector.

This discussion exists in a specific cultural context – one where institutional trust is in decline, and data breaches raise public concern about the integrity of companies and the security of information. Public opinion is thermostatic and will shift depending on how much consumers perceive is being done on the part of regulators and industry to safeguard their data. If the scales are tipped towards an unregulated wild west, we will likely continue to see potential customers put up walls and assume the worst about industry’s intent. If industry can effectively demonstrate safety, responsibility and social benefit – with the “help” of regulators or without – expect these perceptions to decline.

Open up a business publication and you’ll often read something to the effect of “data is the new oil”. I find this a fantastic metaphor not due to the inherent validity of the claim, but because there is a parallel lesson in social license here. The resource industry (through much trial and more error) had the opportunity to learn many lessons over the decades on how central community buy in and public trust is to long term corporate health & profitability. For companies handling sensitive data, similar lessons exist, ones presently being learned by a certain social network. A proactive and consistent story of how these services could contribute to a social net benefit would go a long way in making Canadians more comfortable about the prospect of taking one of these tests.

Methodology

The survey was conducted online with 1,500 Canadian residents aged 18 and over from August 15th to 20th, 2018. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys.   The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20. 

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

MediaPollsTechnology

I shop, therefore I am: Can Augmented Reality Save Canadian Stores?

Over a third of Canadians have already used Augmented Reality (AR) and most are interested in seeing the technology in retail spaces.

Those under 45 are especially enticed by the idea of AR being integrated into their retail experience (75%).

Like many new technologies, AR use in retail will probably be driven by curiosity and novelty at first, but there is a signaling from consumers that AR could enhance the shopping experience.

Augmented Reality has the potential to be a one-two punch for retailers: First, by drawing consumers back into their physical stores through the novelty of AR, then enticing them to open their wallets through the enhanced user experience AR provides.

AR isn’t confined to retail disruption either. See the pdf at the bottom of this page for a short story-deck with some exciting stats and potential applications for different industries, including retail, museums and tourism, and entertainment facilities.

This article only scratches the surface of our study. For a comprehensive deck with an in-depth breakdown of all our findings please email Maciej Czop, Senior Research and Communications Consultant at Abacus Data.

The Evolution of Shopping

Remember, in the infancy of the World Wide Web, when only lunatics gave out their credit card numbers over the internet? These days, that fear is a vague memory and it’s fading quicker than shipping times for Prime Delivery.

Online retail has exploded in the past decade with the advent of trusted online payment systems, cheap or even free shipping, intuitive user interfaces, and a massive shift in consumer culture that makes it feel like we’ve been buying clearance-sale socks through our smartphones while lounging in bed since the dawn of the modern age.

The obvious online purchases, like electronics and clothing, are leading this digital transition with almost 2/3’s of Canadians telling us that they shop for these online at least once a year. Traditionally less digital-friendly purchases are gaining traction as well. Just over half (52%) of Canadians bought household items like dish soap and laundry detergent online and about a quarter (24%) purchased groceries online in the past year.

With consumers moving significant portions of their spending online, and many retail trends pointing to strong and consistent growth in the digital space, where does this leave the brick-and-mortar shop? Some of the more intrepid and creative retailers are exploring how Augmented Reality (AR) could entice consumers back into their physical stores.

What is Augmented Reality (AR)?

Let’s start with the fundamentals. Augmented Reality is an enhanced environment as viewed through a screen or other display, produced by overlaying computer-generated images, sounds, etc. on the real-world.  AR is half-way to virtual reality, but instead of a completely digital world, AR enhances the physical space around us. Think of the much-hyped Google glasses and you’ll get the idea, but AR can be as simple as interacting with a physical object/space through your smartphone, or a kiosk screen, or as complex as a Pokémon franchise revival.

A surprising number of Canadians are already using AR. Just over a third (35%) of all Canadians have used augmented reality, and this number rockets to half (49%) of 30-44 year-olds and almost 7 in 10 (69%) 18-29 year-olds.

Smartphone games and social media apps are leading augmented reality use: 17% of Canadians have used AR through Pokémon GO and 15% through a Snapchat filter. But AR’s appeal doesn’t end with trivial distractions on phones, and this is where retailers’ ears will perk up: 1 in 10 Canadians have used a smartphone to interact with a room or used an AR app to try different paint colours or furniture arrangements, while 7% have used beauty apps to try make-up on a simulation of their face and the same number have used AR at information kiosks.

AR’s Potential in Retail

Looking beyond the way AR is currently being used, we also wanted to measure AR’s potential as it pertains to the retail space in Canada.

What we found was very promising for AR innovators and enthusiasts: Most Canadians (59%) are willing to try AR in a retail space and this climbs to a large majority of 18-29 year-olds (82%) with 30-44 year-olds not far behind (70%).

Canadians think clothing and entertainment are the most popular potential uses for retail AR. Those willing to try AR say they are most interested in trying-on clothing without having to use a change room (26%) and using it for fun at an arcade or theatre (25%).

However, consumers are also interested in how AR can help them make purchases, such as providing more information and demonstrations for electronics (18%), for beauty and cosmetics to see what you look like without physical application (10%), and grocery shopping to get more information about products such as nutrition and how foods fit into personal meal plans (8%).

The main driver of potential retail AR use seems to be the “novelty” factor: 7 in 10 said using AR would be entertaining. Retailers would be wise to make sure whatever implementation of AR they attempt is easy, intuitive and fun for consumers to use.

Many Canadians are anticipating more serious benefits from AR as well. Almost half (48%) said AR would be useful/helpful, over a third (34%) said it would get them to try or buy things they wouldn’t otherwise, while 3 in 10 believe it would make shopping more efficient.

No Perceptual Barriers to AR and lots of Consumer Interest

The big story is that many Canadians are interested in seeing AR in retail spaces, especially those under 45. Like many new technologies, AR use in retail will probably be driven by curiosity and novelty at first, but there is a signaling from consumers that AR could enhance the shopping experience.  Augmented Reality has the potential to be a one-two punch for retailers: First, by drawing consumers back into their physical stores through the novelty of AR, then enticing them to open their wallets through the enhanced user experience AR provides.

Physical retail may never match the convenience of online shopping, but these new augmentation technologies can give consumers something experiential, useful and valuable that draws them back to brick and mortar stores. At the very least, Canadians don’t seem to be opposed to or disinterested in retail AR, but there is also evidence that a significant portion of Canadians explicitly desire it as part of their purchase decision making due to its perceived benefits.

Big Opportunities for Retailers who get AR “Right”

Perhaps the most interesting facet of AR is that Canadians already conveniently carry a powerful piece of AR tech around with them wherever they go: the smartphone. This is a major advantage in the consumer culture arms race and a significant opportunity. Now it’s up to attentive retailers to make retail AR easy and enticing, and give consumers a reason to take their phones out of their pockets.

In an age of big-budget, at-your-fingertips TV shows a la Netflix, Amazon prime, etc., expectations for great story telling and sumptuous aesthetics have never been higher – if you want consumer attention then the production value of AR better be of high quality and unique creativity or retailers risk leaving even the most interested users unimpressed. A neat example of a creative approach to AR is a recent trend seen on some wine labels to tell a story to potential customers.

Our research shows that shoppers expect to be entertained as well as informed, and a short AR interaction that tells a brand/product story can enhance what might otherwise be a mundane experience and keep customers coming back for more – IF the effort is thoughtful, fun, attractive and polished.

AR isn’t confined to retail disruption either. Here is a short story-deck with some exciting stats and potential applications for different industries, including retail, museums and tourism, and entertainment facilities.

Unable to display PDF file. Download instead.

This article only scratches the surface of our study. For a comprehensive deck with an in-depth breakdown of all our findings please email Maciej Czop, Senior Research and Communications Consultant at Abacus Data.

Methodology

The survey was conducted online with 2,000 Canadian residents aged 18 and over from September 15th to 20th, 2018. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys.   The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.19%, 19 times out of 20. 

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

PollsTechnology

Crystal Ball Gazing for 2019

As 2018 wraped up we asked Canadians to tell us how likely and how desirable a series of possible events would be in the coming year. Here’s what the results revealed:

HOPES FOR 2019

• Almost everyone hopes for a scientific or technological breakthrough that can accelerate progress in the fight against climate change (90%) and a shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy (87%). We asked the question both ways, to see if there would be a difference in response and found only a 3-point gap. In Alberta, 87% would like to see a breakthrough in the fight against climate change and 76% would like to see a breakthrough that accelerates a shift from fossil fuels to renewable forms of energy.

• 8 out of 10 Canadians hope 2019 sees Donald Trump leaving the office of President, including 70% in Alberta, and 67% of current CPC voters.

• Two out of three people hope that the year sees the renewal of construction on the TMX pipeline expansion. This includes 60% in BC, 87% in Alberta, 70% in Ontario, but just 41% in Quebec. 71% of Liberal voters and 49% of NDP voters would like to see construction on the pipeline this year.

• A majority, albeit a somewhat modest majority, would like to see the Toronto Maple Leafs win the Stanley Cup. In Ontario, 79% would like the Leafs to win, but neighboring Quebec finds only 41% share this hope.

• 42% would like to see more right-wing governments elected around the world, and 40% would like to see Andrew Scheer become Canada’s Prime Minister. In Alberta, 58% would like to see Mr. Scheer become PM.

• Only 39% would like to see 2019 be the year that Charles becomes King and only 3 in 10 would like to see Britain leave the EU. A majority (57%) of Conservatives would prefer not to see Brexit happen.

EXPECTATIONS FOR 2019

• A majority (56%) believe TMX construction will happen and that Britain will leave the EU (55%).

• While 80% would like Mr. Trump out of office, 41% think it will happen. One in two people thinks there will be more right-wing governments elected around the world.

• 4 in 10 expect to see a scientific or technological breakthrough that helps speed the fight against climate change and 35% expect to see the same thing in terms of a shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy.

• About one in three (35%) expect Mr. Scheer to become PM (76% of Conservative voters) and a similar number expect Charles to be crowned King.

• Only 28% expect the Leafs to break their 50-year drought this year. In Ontario, 65% do not believe this will happen.

UPSHOT

The results to these questions reinforce our findings throughout the last couple of years on energy and climate issues – people want progress in the fight against climate change and believe in the need for a shift to renewables – but they also want Canada to participate sensibly in the energy markets that exist today, including getting more Canadian oil to new customers.

The political rhetoric implies that large swaths of centrist, Liberal, BC or eastern voters are dug in against the TMX project but the reality in our polling tells a different story. A modest majority in Quebec are against the project, but everywhere else majorities support completing this pipeline. A majority of Liberal voters and half of NDP voters do as well.

For years we’ve also seen a belief that the biggest solutions to the climate and carbon challenges may be found in scientific and technological discoveries to come. This underpins support for policies that include pricing pollution but also incentivizing research into clean technologies.

The responses to the questions about Mr. Trump are remarkable – both in the unusual strength and consistency across partisan lines of antipathy to the US President and in the expectation among 4 in 10 that his Presidency will end sometime in the next 12 months.

Leaf fans may feel more supported by the hopes of other Canadians this year, but in any event, expectations appear to be modest. Hope may spring eternal, but Toronto fans aren’t getting ahead of themselves just yet.”

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 2,000 Canadians aged 18 and over from December 13 to 18, 2018. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

MediaPolls

Millennials: Where will they go?

As we enter into a new year, we turn our gaze to the future of the millennial generation. January 1st doesn’t just mark the beginning of another year; it marks the first time that boomers will not hold the plurality of decision-making power in a Canadian election. With the average life expectancy of Canadians hovering around 80, this year marks the first wave of millennials entering their middle-aged lives (turning 39). Many millennials have purchased a home (47%) and another 20% are renting and living with their partner. 59% are married/in civil union or are living with their partner. More and more millennials seem to be morphing into the modern versions of their boomer parents.

However, there are still persistent differences between the generations which will play out in 2019. For instance, the average household size in 1980 was approximately 4 persons – 2 parents and 2 kids. Today the average Canadian household ranges closer to 2 person – 2 partners and no kids. Millennial households also earn 35% less on average compared to what their boomer parents were earning at the same time in their lives. Few millennials have been able to find affordable housing that they can independently afford, relying on parents or government assistance to purchase their first home. Fewer millennials own cars and are opting to use public transit, bikes, or rent a car when they need to get around. If this family planning trend continues, we could see a shift in house designs from the atomic family two-car garages and deep backyards to two-person dwellings or multigenerational family homes. Affordability will also be a key component of the millennial housing market. The homes of tomorrow will have to become more affordable, or new saving and mortgaging schemes will have to be developed, to initiate the next generation of homeowners.

Although millennials make less than boomers, they save more. 38% of millennials have no consumer or student debt.  Nevertheless, for the other 62% of millennials debt still looms large and an economic downturn or interest rate rise could tip many into poverty. With no secure assets like a house or car available for liquidation if times get hard, millennials may find themselves in precarious financial straits.

On the investment front, millennials are going to continue to demand that their money be invested ethically and sustainably. Millennials have turned the niche multimillion-dollar ethical investment industry into one of the fastest growing and largest investment segments. Millennials are risk-averse and would rather make slow and steady gains in quality investments than short rapid growth with the potential for large losses. Millennials want financial stability and they are fine with government intervention to ensure it. A millennial-dominated financial market will most likely not be as high growth as the boomer-dominated one; markets could anticipate modest growth with investors seeking long-term returns.

Politically, there are also differences. Top issues for boomer include healthcare, the economy, and taxes. The top issues for millennials are housing affordability, job creation, and healthcare; they also place more importance on climate change action and affordable education. Millennials are looking for a parental government – a government that will take care of them if they get in trouble, and ensure the best outcome for everyone. From personal finances to policing, national defence, the environment, and social services, millennials want to feel that the government is a social justice advocate. Millennials do not respond well to negative campaigns but prefer positive visions of the future and communitarian messages that show how Canadians will collectively be better off. Half of all millennials think that life would be better off under a socialist system, political parties need to consider this when positioning themselves in the 2019 election.

Just as their parents did before them, millennials will change how we look at the world. They are well-educated, aspirational, and young. They put great emphasis on being good stewards of the environment and good friends to their fellow human, whether they be a world away or across the street. How will the new pilots of the world tackle the big problems is to be seen, but there is no doubt that whatever way they choose it will be the millennial way.

At Abacus we strive to understand the nuances of generational change and how it impacts you and your business. The Canadian Millennials Report is the largest syndicated study of millennials in Canada. We survey 2,000 millennials twice a year on a range of topics including politics, social values, and consumer trends. If you are interested in learning more about this generation, reach out to us and we would be happy to connect.

Media

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Millennials and technology: Their digital nativity

As we reflect on millennials over the past year, I think it only makes sense to share some of the reflections we collected from Millennials in our latest Canadian Millennials Report this June. One of the most repeated hallmarks of this generation is how technology has been engrained in their daily lives. Many articles have been written about what this all means for the millennial generation and what it means for those that interact with them, but we wanted to learn more about when exactly the millennial adoption of technology began.

In the latest Report we asked millennials when they remember regularly using a variety of technology, including tablets, smartphones, laptops and desktop computers.

The results are not surprising. Instead, they confirm the general assumptions we have had about the millennial generation: their coming of age experience was influenced by technology, especially the younger millennials.

For instance, the average age millennials remember using a computer was just twelve years old, even among older Millennials. Before our generation was learning the responsibilities of first jobs, and taking babysitting courses, we were learning skills and strategy of Pong and the Oregon Trail. For younger millennials, they just barely reached double-digits before they were frequently using a desktop computer.

There is a wider gap in age of adoption of things like laptops and smartphones. Those over 25 started using a laptop regularly when they were 17, and a smartphone when they were 19. For those under 25, they were 13 when they started regularly using a laptop, and 14 for smartphones.

Of course, some of these differences are due to the release dates for some of these technologies. For example, the more mainstream smartphones, like the iPhone, really took off in 2007-2008, so it only makes sense for there to be differences between those over and under 25.

Tablets are a bit of a different story. The average age for regular use was 19 years old. Those over 25 are slightly over the average, at 21 years old, and those under 25 were using tablets regularly before their sweet sixteen. Regular use for them started at 15 years old.

Perhaps the most interesting part of this is that this research confirms not only that millennials adopted these technologies at a young age, but that they have clear memories of using these technologies at a young age. Technology was a big part of how they learned about the world, with Google searches instead of library encyclopaedias, and email instead of snail mail.

And the adoption of these technologies meant more independence for the millennial generation, but in some regards,  it also meant more attachment. Millennials could surf the internet and it’s wealth of information all on their own, but we were also only a phone call, or FaceTime call away from our parents.

At Abacus we strive to understand the nuances of generational change and how it impacts you and your business. The Canadian Millennials Report is the largest syndicated study of millennials in Canada. We survey 2,000 millennials twice a year on a range of topics including politics, social values, and consumer trends. If you are interested in learning more about this generation, reach out to us and we would be happy to connect.

Generational Change

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What’s in a word?

Millennials. It is a term that we hear a lot online, and in the news, and around the office here at Abacus Data. According to Forbes, the word ‘millennial’ was first used to describe this generation in 1991. In the book titled, ‘Generations’, historians Neil Howe and William Straus discussed “generational personalities”, where people born within the same range of years would likely have similar traits, even if they had never met. One of these generational personalities was millennials.

The use of the term didn’t really gain popularity in literature until the turn of the century, with the use of the term at its highest in 2000. It was then that the term was widely recognized by academics as the word to describe this generation.

Even still, the word didn’t really gain mainstream popularity until much later. According to Google Trends data, the use of the term really took off in Canada in 2015, as Google searches for the word sky-rocketed.  Google trends compares search interest relative to the highest point on the chart/time period selected. A value of 100 means peak popularity for the given time period.

As some might say, the rest is history. The day this article was written a Google News search for the term ‘millennial’ returned 24.2 million results. The term is everywhere. Among the top searches today, “12 hottest housing markets for millennial homebuyers” and “Millennials strike again: This time we’re killing cash and ‘Merry Christmas’.

Looking at another interesting tool, sentiment viz, we are able to look further at the conversation about millennials. Sentiment viz gathers Tweets from the past hour that contain your keyword and organizes them on a sentiment map using their sentiment dictionary, and AI. A search of the term millennial brings mainly positive sentiment, and a lot of words relating to money or the holidays.

Looking closer at the most recent search history of the term on Google Trends, it seems to be averaging out since its surge in popularity in 2015.

The term still experiences fluctuations but it seems to have leveled out, and it appears the term is here to stay. The millennial generation is not as new as it once was. Most of us have graduated high school and have moved into adulthood and into the workforce. But this does not mean that this generation is any less important. As the group moves into the workforce, and begins to do adult things like home buying, having children, and saving for retirement, we have no doubt that watching this generation will be more important than ever.

At Abacus we strive to understand the nuances of generational change and how it impacts you and your business. The Canadian Millennials Report is the largest syndicated study of millennials in Canada. We survey 2,000 millennials twice a year on a range of topics including politics, social values, and consumer trends. If you are interested in learning more about this generation, reach out to us and we would be happy to connect.

Generational Change

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What makes a millennial?

To kick off our millennial year in review we start by looking at the subject of our discussion: the millennials. Most of our regular readers you will know that millennials are a generational cohort born between the years of 1980 and 2000. In Canada, millennials make up just a little over a quarter of the population (27%) and approximately 40% of the working population (15-65 years old) as of the last census.

Millennials are both more highly educated and ethnically diverse than previous generations. 68% of millennials have a post-secondary education and many of those who do not are on their way to finishing one. One in four Canadian millennials are from non-western European ancestry and by 2036, 1 of every 2 Canadians could come from non-western European heritage. Millennials are at the forefront of the change that has been ushered in by globalization and technological innovation. A generation ago, social science degrees were the goût de jour of most university-goers; now STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math), computer science/IT, and the skilled trades have taken a lead over most other disciplines. This shift in degree preference is preparing millennials for the in-demand skill required by the workforce of both today and tomorrow.

Millennials do have their struggles. They persistently make under the national median income of $70,000 per year; in fact, most millennials make under $50,000 a year. Millennials also tend to be under-employed when compared to the rest of the population with their unemployment rate remaining stubbornly 2-3 points above the national average. Affordable housing is another issue for millennials. When asked for the priority that is at the top of their list for the federal government to address, affordable housing is the resounding answer. New detached houses cost more than twice as much as they did when boomers were buying their first homes. A home costing $210,000 in 1977 would cost around $490,000 today (all in 2016 dollars). Wages have increased only modestly since the Great Recession in 2008 and still haven’t recovered from their peak in 1977 while cost of living continues to outpace earnings. This has resulted in higher household debt which has risen to twice the level it was a generation ago, now sitting around 170% of household income, meaning Canadians pay $1.70 in debt for each dollar they earn.

Despite what some pundits suggest, millennials are logical creatures; and to defer some of these costs nearly a third of all millennials are choosing to live with their parents and save. This might be unimaginable for some boomers who would rather go on the dole than go back home to their mom and dad, but millennials are used to being supported by their parents. This nurturing or “helicopter parenting” as it has been known to be called, has shaped how millennials perceive their world.

In school and in their extra-curricular activities, they were raised to believe that there are no “losers” and no penalty for not obtaining the goal. They learned that participation alone is deserving of reward and recognition. This has evolved into a social consciousness that shapes their approach to their work and informs their entrepreneurial spirit. They want to ensure that all people have access to the same “privilege” they had when growing up and in their employment. Fairness, equality, and merit are all things that millennials have learned to value highly and seek to export that experience to the world.

Millennials perceive most aspects of their life through this egalitarian lens. 54% of millennials believe that Canada would be better off if governed under a more socialist system and 36% of millennials identify as being left-of-centre politically. Comparatively, 42% politically identify as being centrist while 22% identify as right-leaning conservatives.  91% of millennials believe that stopping climate change is a moral responsibility and many would not vote for a party that did not have an action plan to address climate change.

Finally, there is the technological side of the millennial generation. Millennials were born with digital technology. While older millennials can remember the days before the internet, for most, it has been a ubiquitous part of their lives. Cellphones, video games, and computers are second nature to millennials, most having received their first desktop at the age of 12, laptop at 16, and smartphone at 18. The effects of this communications change have been well-document and blamed for the decline of newspapers, political debate, and even some dictators (see Arab Spring). Yes, millennials ‘get’ technology and it’s a good thing too. As new technological innovation changes the world around us, it’s good that the leaders and innovators of tomorrow have a grasp on it.

In sum, millennials are the 18 to 30-somethings you interact with every day. They don’t make as much as most Canadians, and many are still looking for a fulfilling job. They’re well educated, empathetic, and want to improve the world around them both socially and environmentally. They lean to the left and currently are embracing the disruption technological innovation is providing. In many ways, they are like the generations that came before but are distinctively different in many others. Their connectivity and search for social justice are probably what will become to define them, but this is still a very young generation and the history books have yet to be written. So who are the millennials? That is still to be seen, only time will tell what they will do with the uncertain world set before them.

At Abacus we strive to understand the nuances of generational change and how it impacts you and your business. The Canadian Millennials Report is the largest syndicated study of millennials in Canada. We survey 2,000 millennials twice a year on a range of topics including politics, social values, and consumer trends. If you are interested in learning more about this generation, reach out to us and we would be happy to connect.

Media

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Trudeau, Scheer, or Singh: Who would most likely…

How people think about political leaders has to do with a lot of factors, well beyond their policy positions. Voters develop a sense of what kind of person they are, whether they can be trusted in different ways.

To help shed light on how Canadians are thinking about the three major party leaders heading into this election year, we reprised some questions we ran early in 2015 ten months before the last election. Here’s what the results revealed:

• On 9 of 10 items tested, more people would trust Justin Trudeau than either of the other two leaders. The widest gaps were on trust to babysit your kids, choose the best movie to watch, prefer to have over for family dinner, give your kids career advice. Mr. Trudeau trailed Andrew Scheer on one item: which leader would make the best CEO of a large company.

• Mr. Scheer was top pick in terms of making the best large company CEO and was tied with Mr. Trudeau for “prefer to negotiate a contract on your behalf”. His weakest results were on “cook the best meal” and “most likely to lend you $100 if you needed it”.

• Jagmeet Singh was third on all but two items: “most likely to lend you $100” and “cook the best meal”.

As expected, those who identify with a party (Liberal, Conservative, New Democrat) tend to think most positively about their leader. Liberal partisans are pretty aligned with Mr. Trudeau on all items, but 28% of them think Mr. Scheer would make a better CEO, and over one in five think Mr. Singh would cook a better meal.

Conservative partisans show less attachment to their leader across the board, especially visible on “babysit your kids”, “choose the best movie”, “lend you $100” and “cook the best meal”.

For Mr. Singh and his own NDP partisans, there’s much less alignment than with the other party leaders and their partisans. Only on two items does Mr. Singh get a majority of NDP partisans selecting him – “lend you $100” and “cook the best meal”. On others, he either ties or trails Mr. Trudeau including on “choose the best movie”, “make the best CEO of a large company”, and “prefer to babysit your children”.

Finally, among those who don’t identify with any party, the results mirror the national averages. Mr. Trudeau leads on all but one measure (CEO of a large company), and had big leads over his rivals on babysitting, being a guest at dinner, choosing the best movie, and lending $100.

For comparison’s sake, below are the results from the same assessment we did around the same time before the 2015 election. A few things are worth noting:

1. Justin Trudeau’s advantages are wider on all the items tested.

2. Mr. Harper had an advantage over Mr. Trudeau on who would make the best CEO, negotiate a contract on your behalf, and give your child good career advice. Mr. Trudeau leads Mr. Scheer on two of these three measures.

3. Tom Mulcair was looking more competitive in that earlier wave before the 2015 election than Mr. Singh appears to be today.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “As voters think about their choices in an election the personalities of the leaders often carry disproportionate weight. These results show that while dissatisfaction is up with the Trudeau government on issues like climate, TMX pipeline, deficits, and immigration – Mr. Trudeau continues to be seen in a positive light personally by many people.

Being better known doesn’t always mean being better liked. But 3 years into his mandate, the sense that Mr. Trudeau is a knowledgeable person, a good companion over a meal and someone with good ideas about your children’s future continue to represent advantages for him over his main opponents.

In the run-up to the last election, Mr. Harper also had advantages on best company CEO, and negotiate a contract on your behalf. While the coming year may be different, those advantages did not turn out to be deciding factors in the outcome of the 2015 vote.”

According to David Coletto: “This remains one of my favourite and most illuminating research exercises because it gives us a glimpse into how Canadians think about what kind of person each party leader is.

These results signal a few things worth considering.

First, Mr. Trudeau’s personal image remains strong. He’s seen as caring, empathetic, generous, and in touch with the latest trends in movies and food. He’s the leader far more Canadians want to spend time with and would trust to watch their children.

Second, despite a close horserace between the Liberals and Conservatives, these results may suggest that the horserace numbers may not be fully capturing a comparative assessment of the party leaders. Right now, assessments are mainly a reaction to what the Liberal government is doing and don’t fully consider who the alternative to Mr. Trudeau as Prime Minister will be. How people feel about the leader’s personality and character will matter more the closer we get to the election and if these numbers hold, Mr. Trudeau will have a very large advantage over his rivals.

Finally, these results confirm the difficulty Mr. Singh and the NDP finds itself. Our tracking has shown that more Canadians still have a negative view of Mr. Singh than a positive one. Few have much impression of him and he’s well behind where Mr. Mulcair was about a year from the election. If Mr. Singh’s greatest potential asset is his ability to compete with Mr. Trudeau on personality, these results confirm that he hasn’t converted that potential into reality yet.”

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 2,000 Canadians aged 18 and over from December 13 to 18, 2018. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

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