We just completed a national survey of 2,692 Canadians eligible to vote in the current federal election (September 1 to 4, 2021). 62% of the interviews were done after the TVA French-language debate on Thursday evening. We will have a new release out on Tuesday with a large sample to assess the TVA debate.

Here’s what we are seeing in our most recent survey:

If an election were held now, the Conservatives would win 33% of the vote (+1 from last week), the Liberals 32% (down 1), the NDP 21% (down 1), the Green Party 3% (up 1) and the BQ at 31% in Quebec (down 3)

• In BC, a three-way race with the NDP at 32%, the Liberals at 30%, and the Conservatives at 30% is very tight.

• In Alberta, 50% would vote Conservative compared with 24% for the Liberals, 19% for the NDP, 4% for the People’s Party and 1% for the Maverick Party.

• In Manitoba and Saskatchewan, the Conservatives lead with 53% followed by the Liberals at 21% and the NDP at 18%

• In Ontario, the Liberals and Conservatives are statistically tied (36% LPC vs. 35% CPC) with the NDP at 21%. Last week we had the Liberals ahead by 7 in Ontario.

• Within Ontario, the Liberals have a 23-point lead in the 416 region of Toronto, the Liberal and Conservatives are tied at 37% in the GTHA (postal codes start with L), the Liberals and Conservatives tied in Eastern Ontario while the Conservatives have a 17-point lead over the NDP in the Southwest.

• In Quebec, we see the BQ and LPC tied at 31% followed by the Conservatives at 18% and the NDP at 16%. When we compare the sample pre- and post-TVA debate, differences are within the margins of error. In our next release, we will have a larger sample of people who watched the debate and can report a clearer picture of how it might have affected attitudes.

• In the Atlantic provinces, the Liberals are ahead by 11 over the Conservatives (42% to 31%) with the NDP at 22%.

Although the Liberals and CPC are statistically tied among all decided respondents, the Conservatives continue to have a 3-point lead among those who are most likely to vote. Among the 69% of respondents who said they would definitely be voting, the Conservatives have 35% compared with 32% for the Liberals and 20% for the NDP. This is largely unchanged from last week.

TODAY VS. 2019: HOW WELL ARE PARTIES HOLDING THEIR VOTE.

The Conservatives are holding 87% of their 2019 vote, the rest has been scattered with no more than 4% going to any other party.

The Liberals have held 81% of their 2019 vote, losing 10% of that vote to the NDP and 6% to the Conservatives.

The NDP has held 83% of its 2019 vote, losing a bit more 7% to the Liberals than to the Conservatives (6%).

The Green Party has held on to just 48% of its 2019 vote, losing a quarter of its voters to the NDP, 11% to the Liberals and 11% to the Conservatives.

THE SWITCHERS

We continue to track two key groups in the electorate: LPC/NDP switchers (18% of the electorate) and LPC/CPC switchers (6% of the electorate). About half in both groups say they could still change their mind about how they will vote.

The Liberals continue to have a sizeable lead over the NDP among the LPC/NDP switchers with little change. However, among LPC/CPC switchers, we have seen a noticeable shift in favour of the Conservatives. This week, 53% of the LPC/CPC switchers would vote Conservative (up 12 points) while 47% would vote Liberal (down 12 points).

VOTE CERTAINTY

Today, 33% of those with a vote preference say their vote could still change (down 5 points in a week, and 7-points in two weeks. NDP and Green supporters are the most likely to be open to switching. Overall, 25% of Conservative supporters might change compared with 32% of Liberal voters, 25% of BQ supporters, and 46% of NDP voters.

PREFERRED OUTCOME

Asked which of four (most likely based on today’s numbers) outcomes they would prefer, 58% would prefer a Liberal victory (31% majority, 27% minority) while 44% would prefer a Conservative win (13% minority, 28% majority). Compared with last week, preference for a Liberal government is down 2-points, and over the past two weeks, it is down 5-points.

A Liberal win is the preference of 63% in BC, 44% in Alberta, 44% in Manitoba/Saskatchewan, 60% in Ontario, 65% in Quebec, and 59% in Atlantic Canada.

Among Liberal/NDP switchers 98% would prefer a Liberal to a Conservative victory. Among NDP voters 76% would prefer a Liberal win.

Among BQ voters 56% would prefer the Liberals win, compared to 44% who would like the Conservatives to come out on top.

Among Liberal/Conservative switchers two thirds (64%) would prefer to see the Liberals win.

EXPECTED ELECTION OUTCOME

As of today, 37% expect the Liberals to win (down 6 since last week), followed by 28% who expect the Conservatives to win (up 5), and 9% who expect the NDP to come out on top.

When asked whether the election will be close or will one party win by a lot, 70% think it will be close while 14% think one party will win by a lot. 16% are not sure.

Those who would prefer the LPC to win but think the Conservatives are going to win makes up 4% of the electorate – doubling from last week. Among this group, 43% would vote NDP, 33% Liberal and 12% Conservative. 9% would vote Green and 3% BQ.

LEADER IMPRESSIONS

Justin Trudeau enjoys a positive impression among 38% and negative impressions among 44%, for a net score of -6. This is unchanged from last week. Regionally, Mr. Trudeau’s net favourables are -5 in BC, -27 in Alberta, -33 in SK/MB, -2 in Ontario, 0 in Quebec, and +6 in Atlantic Canada. Among Liberal/NDP switchers Trudeau is +67. Among Liberal/Conservative switchers he is +43.

Jagmeet Singh enjoys a positive impression among 43% and finds negative impressions among 25% for a net score of +18.

Regionally, Mr. Singh’s net favourables are +31 in BC, +13 in AB, +9 in SK/MB, +33 in Ontario, +3 in Quebec, and +29 in Atlantic Canada. Among Liberal/NDP switchers Singh is +79.

Today 30% have a positive impression of the Conservative leader Erin O’Toole (+1 from last week) while his negatives are at 40% (-2) for a net score of -10, showing another week of gains.

Regionally, Mr. O’Toole’s net favourables are -17 in BC, +8 in AB, +6 in SK/MB, -8 in Ontario, -20 in Quebec, and -14 in Atlantic Canada. Among Liberal/Conservative switchers O’Toole is +48.

In Quebec, BQ Leader Mr. Blanchet is 42% positive and 30% negative (+5) for a net score of +12. In contrast, Mr. Trudeau is 0 and Mr. O’Toole is -20 in Quebec.

In terms of whether people’s views are improving or declining of the three main party leaders, we find Mr. Trudeau has the lowest momentum score while Mr. Singh has the highest.

• Justin Trudeau: 19% (unchanged) say their impressions are improving, 42% (+1) declining, for a momentum score of -23, similar to last week. Among LPC/NDP switchers, his momentum score is +7 and among LPC/CPC switchers it is -19 (a big swing from last week). Among those who voted Liberal in 2019, 22% say their impression of Mr. Trudeau has declined since the start of the campaign.

• Erin O’Toole: 31% say their impressions are improving (unchanged), 25% declining, for a momentum score of +6. Among LPC/CPC switchers, his momentum score is +39 (a marked difference from Mr. Trudeau). Among those who voted CPC in 2019, 6% say their impression of Mr. O’Toole has declined since the start of the campaign. Among 2019 LPC voters, 19% say their impression is improving.

• Jagmeet Singh: 35% (-1) say their impressions are improving, 16% declining (unchanged), and 48% not changing for a momentum score of +19. Among LPC/NDP switchers his momentum score is +55. Among those who voted NDP in 2019, his momentum score is +57.

DESIRE FOR CHANGE

The rise in the desire for change we were seeing in previous weeks has halted. Today, 48% definitely want to see a change in government (unchanged from last week) while another 23% say it would be good to have a change, but it is not really that important to them, for a total of 71% who would prefer a change in government. This outlook is almost identical to the feelings we measured in the run up to the 2019 election.

The vote preference by change group is important to understanding the election. Among those who say they want change but it isn’t important (23% of the electorate at the moment), the Liberals and NDP are statistically tied (NDP 34% vs. LPC 32%) with the Conservatives in third. As long as the Liberals can win a large share of this group, they can be re-elected.

But if those in this group migrate up to “definitely want change”, it’s far less likely they will vote Liberal. As perceptions about the competitiveness of the election shift, the split in these groups could also change.

PREFERRED PRIME MINISTER

Today, 36% of voters would prefer Justin Trudeau be PM after the election, 32% would prefer Erin O’Toole, and 25% Jagmeet Singh. This is the exact same split as last week.

In BC, 34% would prefer Singh and 33% Trudeau, followed by O’Toole at 29%. In Ontario, Trudeau is preferred by 37% followed by O’Toole (31%) and Singh (21%). In Quebec, Trudeau is well ahead of O’Toole (42% to 28%) followed by Singh at 21%.

Asked if the choice was only between O’Toole and Trudeau, Trudeau would be the preference of 56% (down 2) and O’Toole 44% (up 2). When asking who they would prefer between Mr. O’Toole and Mr. Singh, the split is almost the same, 55% would prefer Mr. Singh and 45% would prefer Mr. O’Toole.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: Today’s results would probably produce a very similar House of Commons to the one which was just dissolved. But it is very unlikely that there will be no movement in the next 16 days as more debates and more advertising kick in. There are two groups to watch in my view.

• The 23% who want change but who don’t feel that strongly about it – if a third of them vote NDP as they currently intend to do, then the Liberals could be defeated by the Conservatives on Election Day.

• The 18% who say they will either vote Liberal or NDP, among whom 45% say they will currently vote NDP, but among whom 98% prefer the Liberals to win over the Conservatives. As three of four NDP voters prefer a Liberal government they likely hold the key to whether the country will elect one on September 20.

The campaign has gone well for Erin O’Toole personally and he has improved his party’s chances. With debates beginning and advertising becoming more plentiful and more pointed, the level of scrutiny about a Conservative victory and what it means will be higher and more persistent, especially as Canadians think it is more possible.

NDP-leaning progressive voters will likely be attentive to what a Conservative government could mean for issues ranging from climate change and pipelines to guns to childcare to health care and vaccinations.

With almost 10 million voters saying their current preference isn’t locked in, the election trajectory is far from certain and the outcome unpredictable.

According to David Coletto: “We continue to see only slight changes in vote intention and impressions on most metrics we track as week three of the campaign comes to a close. The Conservatives and Liberals remain statistically tied although the Conservatives have a slight lead among those most likely to vote. Impressions of the leaders haven’t changed much since last week.

However, we are seeing some important shifts in other perceptions. For example, far more people today believe the Conservatives will win the election. More still think the Liberals will win but the gap has closed substantially over the past three weeks.

The Conservatives are making some gains among Liberal/Conservative switchers, but they haven’t fundamentally altered the electorate. Those open to voting Conservative is stuck at 44%, the same as last week. And so, while the Conservative campaign has been successful in re-engaging its 2019 coalition, I don’t see any evidence yet that it is expanding its audience and building a coalition that can win the election outright.

The Liberal vote share has been stuck in the low 30s now for three straight weeks. Mr. Trudeau’s negatives are rising slowly but importantly for the Liberals, the desire for change has halted its weekly rise in our tracking. Right now, more people still would prefer Mr. Trudeau as prime minister over Mr. O’Toole but that margin has shrunk somewhat from last week.

And finally, while Mr. Singh continues to have the best net impression among the national leaders, the NDP vote is stuck in the low 20s. In fact, it seems to have reversed gains made earlier. There’s still a lot of people who say they are open to voting NDP (48%) but converting them beyond 20-22% seems to be a challenge. The biggest risk for the NDP remains the threat of strategic voting, especially as more and more people come to realize that the Conservatives are able to win the election.

So far, the TVA leaders’ debate doesn’t seem to have fundamentally altered the race in Quebec but we will have more to say on that on Tuesday.”

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 2,692 Canadian adults eligible to vote from September 1 to 4, 2021. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/-1.9%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

We just completed a national survey of 2,000 Canadians eligible to vote in the current federal election (August 24 to 29, 2021). Here’s what we are seeing:

CURRENT VOTE INTENTION

If an election were held now, the Liberals would win 33% of the vote (unchanged from last week), the Conservatives 32% (up 3), the NDP 22% (down 1), the Green Party 2% (down 2) and the BQ at 34% in Quebec (up 5).

• In BC, we see the Liberals at 35%, the NDP at 34% and the Conservatives at 32%. The Greens are at 2% which is the lowest number we have seen for that party in a long time.

• In Alberta, 52% would vote Conservative compared with 26% for the NDP and 14% for the Liberals, 3% for the Green Party, 3% for the People’s Party, 2% for the Maverick Party.

• In Manitoba and Saskatchewan, the Conservatives lead with 50% followed by the NDP (25%) and Liberals (18%).

• In Ontario, the Liberals lead by 7 (39% to 32%) with the NDP at 22%. The People’s Party is at 4% in Ontario. The Green Party is at 2%. The Liberal lead in Ontario has been consistent in our tracking.

• In Quebec, we see the BQ with 34%, followed by the Liberals (29%), the Conservatives (20%) the NDP at 12%. The Greens are at 3% in Quebec.

• In the Atlantic provinces, the Liberals (50%) are well ahead of the Conservatives (30%) and the NDP (19%).

Although the Liberals and CPC are statistically tied among all decided respondents, the Conservatives have a 2-point lead among those who are most likely to vote. Among the 69% of respondents who said they would definitely be voting, the Conservatives have 34% compared with 32% for the Liberals and 21% for the NDP.

Turnout levels may be higher among older people than younger people, with only 59% of those under 30 saying they are certain to vote, compared to 65% among those 30-44, 76% among those 45-59 and 85% among those over 60.

TODAY VS. 2019: HOW WELL ARE PARTIES HOLDING THEIR VOTE?

The Conservatives are holding 87% of their 2019 vote, the rest has been scattered with no more than 4% going to any other party.

The Liberals have held 79% of their 2019 vote, losing 12% of that vote to the NDP and 8% to the Conservatives.

The NDP has held 83% of its 2019 vote, losing a bit more 7% to the Liberals than to the Conservatives (4%) and the BQ (3%)

The Green Party has held on to just 47% of its 2019 vote, losing a third of their voters to the NDP, 10% to the Liberals and 7% to the Conservatives.

SECOND CHOICES

Overall, 21% of decided respondents say their second choice is the NDP, followed by the Liberals (18%) and the Conservatives (10%). 28% say they have no second choice.

Conservative voters are the least likely to have a second-choice preference. Their second choice is a bit more likely to be NDP (19%) or People’s Party (16%) than Liberal (15%)

Liberal voters’ second choice is 39% NDP and 19% Conservative.

NDP voters’ second choice is Liberal 44%, Green 22%, with only 10% saying their second choice would be the Conservatives.

BQ voters would tend to drift more to the Liberals (26%) and NDP (20%) than to the Conservatives (15%).

VACCINATION STATUS AND THE VOTE

Among those fully vaccinated, the Liberals have a four-point lead (34% Liberal, 30% Conservative and 22% for the NDP). Conservatives lead by 7-points among the hesitant and by 34-points among vaccine refusers. Among vaccine refusers, 44% would vote Conservative followed by 25% for the People’s Party.

VOTE CERTAINTY

Almost four in ten of those with a vote preference (38%, down 2 points from last week) say they could change their mind about how they will vote come Election Day, including at least a third of voters in every region, almost half of voters under 30 (47%). NDP and Green supporters are the most likely to be open to switching. 32% of Conservative supporters might change, 36% of Liberal voters, 43% of BQ supporters, and 45% of NDP voters.

PREFERRED OUTCOME

Asked which of four (most likely based on today’s numbers) outcomes they would prefer, 60% would prefer a Liberal victory (31% majority, 29% minority) while 40% would prefer a Conservative win (13% minority, 27% majority). Compared with last week, preference for a Liberal government is down 3-points with a 3-point rise in preference for a Conservative in.

A Liberal win is the preference of 63% in BC, 40% in Alberta, 46% in Manitoba/Saskatchewan, 65% in Ontario, 63% in Quebec, and 69% in Atlantic Canada.

Among Liberal/NDP switchers 99% would prefer a Liberal to a Conservative victory. Among NDP voters 82% would prefer a Liberal win.

Among BQ voters 61% would prefer the Liberals win, compared to 39% who would like the Conservatives to come out on top.

Among Liberal/Conservative switchers two thirds (64%) would prefer to see the Liberals win.

Among vaccine refusers, 73% would like the Conservatives to win while 64% of those fully vaccinated would prefer the Liberals to win.

EXPECTED ELECTION OUTCOME

As of today, 43% expect the Liberals to win (down 5 since last week), followed by 23% who expect the Conservatives to win (up 5), and 9% who expect the NDP to come out on top.

Those who would prefer the LPC to win but think the Conservatives are going to win make up 2% of the electorate. This is unchanged from last week and is a good indicator of the potential of strategic voting.

LEADER IMPRESSIONS

Justin Trudeau enjoys a positive impression among 40% and negative impressions among 43%, for a net score of -3. This is unchanged from last week. Regionally, Mr. Trudeau’s net favourables are +2 in BC, -48 in Alberta, -32 in SK/MB, +1 in Ontario, +7 in Quebec, and +22 in Atlantic Canada. Among Liberal/NDP switchers Trudeau is +65. Among Liberal/Conservative switchers he is +46. Trudeau is +2 among the fully vaccinated and -72% among vax refusers.

Jagmeet Singh enjoys a positive impression among 44% and finds negative impressions among 26% for a net score of +18. Positive impressions and negative impressions of Mr. Singh are up each by 2-points in the last week.

Regionally, Mr. Singh’s net favourables are +33 in BC, +7 in AB, +14 in SK/MB, +20 in Ontario, +3 in Quebec, and +34 in Atlantic Canada. Among Liberal/NDP switchers Singh is +65. Among CPC/NDP switchers he is +47.

Today 29% have a positive impression of the Conservative leader Erin O’Toole (+3 from last week) while his negatives are at 42% for a net score of -13, showing another week of gains.

Regionally, Mr. O’Toole’s net favourables are -24 in BC, +7 in AB, +2 in SK/MB, -15 in Ontario, -13 in Quebec, and -15 in Atlantic Canada. Mr. O’Toole’s improvements so far seem to be concentrated more in the Prairies and among Conservative voters who were soft in their support before the election was called. Among Liberal/Conservative switchers O’Toole is +44. O’Toole is -13 among the fully vaccinated and -9% among vax refusers.

If we compare Mr. O’Toole’s image with that of Mr. Scheer around the same time of the 2019 election, we find almost identical results. Mr. O’Toole is as unpopular with non-Conservative voters as Mr. Scheer was and as popular with Conservatives as he was at this point in the campaign.

In Quebec, BQ Leader Mr. Blanchet is 41% positive and 25% negative for a net score of +16. In contrast, Mr. Trudeau is +7 and Mr. O’Toole is -13 in Quebec.

In terms of whether people’s views are improving or declining of the three main party leaders, we find Mr. Trudeau has the lowest momentum score while Mr. Singh has the highest.

• Justin Trudeau: 19% say their impressions are improving, 40% declining, for a momentum score of -21, similar to last week. Among LPC/NDP switchers, his momentum score is +6 and among LPC/CPC switchers it is +15. Among those who voted Liberal in 2019, 20% say their impression of Mr. Trudeau has declined since the start of the campaign.

• Erin O’Toole: 31% say their impressions are improving (up 7), 26% declining, for a momentum score of +5. Among LPC/CPC switchers, his momentum score is +43. Among CPC/NDP switchers, it is +59. Among those who voted CPC in 2019, 5% say their impression of Mr. O’Toole has declined since the start of the campaign.

• Jagmeet Singh: 36% say their impressions are improving (up 4), 16% declining (unchanged), and 48% not changing for a momentum score of +20. Among LPC/NDP switchers his momentum score is +57 and among CPC/NDP switchers it is +51. Among those who voted NDP in 2019, his momentum score is +55.

DESIRE FOR CHANGE & GOVERNMENT APPROVAL

Today 40% approve of the job being done by the Trudeau government, while 43% disapprove. Regionally, the net approval rating for the federal government is +3 in BC, -44 in Alberta, -34 in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, +2 in Ontario, +4 in Quebec, and +25 in Atlantic Canada.

We are seeing a rise in those who definitely want a change in government. Today, 48% definitely want to see a change in government (up 4 from last week) while another 24% say it would be good to have a change, but it is not really that important to them, for a total of 71% who would prefer a change in government. This outlook is almost identical to the feelings we measured in the run up to the 2019 election.

The vote preference by change group is important to understanding the election. Among those who say they want change but it isn’t important (24% of the electorate at the moment), the Liberals are slightly ahead of the NDP. As long as the Liberals can win a large share of this group, they can be re-elected.

But if those in this group migrate up to “definitely want change”, it’s far less likely they will vote Liberal. As perceptions about the competitiveness of the election shifts, the split in these groups could also change.

PREFERRED PRIME MINISTER

Today, 36% of voters would prefer Justin Trudeau be PM after the election, 32% would prefer Erin O’Toole, and 25% Jagmeet Singh. O’Toole is preferred in the Prairies by a wide margin with Mr. Trudeau behind Mr. Singh.

In BC, 37% would prefer Singh and 34% Trudeau, followed by O’Toole at 25%. In Ontario, Trudeau is preferred by 37% followed by O’Toole (31%) and Singh (24%). In Quebec, Trudeau is well ahead of O’Toole (43% to 27%) followed by Singh at 189In Atlantic Canada Trudeau is the preference of 53% compared to 26% for O’Toole and 21% for Singh.

Asked if the choice was only between O’Toole and Trudeau, Trudeau would be the preference of 58% and O’Toole 42%. Trudeau would be chosen by 64% in BC, 59% in Ontario, 62% in Quebec and 70% in Atlantic Canada. O’Toole would be the preference of 61% in the Prairies. Trudeau would be the preference of 78% of NDP voters and 62% of BQ supporters. O’Toole would be the preference for 75% of vaccine refusers while 60% of those fully vaccinated would prefer Mr. Trudeau over Mr. O’Toole.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: This race is about ready to kick into a higher gear, and the outcome is unpredictable. The key variables I’m watching are these:

1. Erin O’Toole has had a successful start and his gains have probably begun put him and his party under a different level of scrutiny – and made this election feel less like a referendum on Justin Trudeau and more like a conversation about the different choices on offer. Whether he and his party will fare well through that scrutiny is an unknown. The ugly protests of anti-vaxxers are a cloud that certainly does more to threaten Conservative prospects, than Liberal chances.

2. The NDP has made gains at the expense of both the Liberals and the Green Party. Will the gains hold, even as voters start to focus on the prospects of a Conservative government? If they don’t, the benefit will accrue to the Liberals, disproportionately. If the election feels like it comes down to a Trudeau or O’Toole government, soft NDP voters show a lopsided preference for the former.

3. The Liberals have been feeling the brunt of frustrations that build up over years for an incumbent government and probably extra frustrations because of the mood impacts of the pandemic. Enough voters appreciate their record and approach to prefer them to the Conservatives, by a wide margin – making that that the apparent choice and sharpening the contrast is the work that they have cut out for them in the next three weeks.

According to David Coletto: This election is now close and competitive, and the outcome is far from clear.

We see evidence that Conservative supporters are re-engaged, the desire for change is trending up, while Liberal supporters have become less interested and engaged in the election since it started. That lends itself to a good environment for Mr. O’Toole and the Conservatives.

However, while the Conservative campaign has been able to animate past supporters, it hasn’t yet made much progress in converting past Liberal, NDP, Green, or BQ supporters– hence why it’s stuck at around its 2019 vote share. It’s almost like we have returned to normal – the political environment pre-pandemic.

The only difference remains the stronger position for the NDP and Mr. Singh. Despite more viewing Mr. Singh positively than last week, the NDP’s vote share has stalled. More people are open to voting NDP (50%) than at any point in the past two years, but they remain hesitant to support the party outright. That could change, but as the dynamics of the campaign shift away from a focus on Mr. Trudeau and why the election was called, to what a potential Conservative government might or might not do, the risk for the NDP’s support to be squeezed will increase.

By suggesting he’d be open to working with Mr. O’Toole if the Conservatives win the most seats, Mr. Singh may be playing with fire given that 82% of NDP supporters would prefer a Liberal government over a Conservative one.

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 2,000 Canadian adults eligible to vote from August 24 to 29, 2021. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Each day during the 2021 Federal Election campaign, researchers at Abacus Data will share insights and analysis from our polling in concise, insights-focused reports. To never miss our polls and analysis, subscribe to our newsletter.

In a federal election, the messaging and tone a political party chooses to use is important. It’s a way to curate a brand or image about their platform to voters and tell their story. It also presents current events in their own narrative. But during a federal election campaign messaging from political parties isn’t the only messaging that voters see.

In an age where many of us are staying up to date about the campaign by going online, there are a variety of sources that are talking about the election. These sources create their own narrative, tone and messaging too.

Prior to the election we’ve done extensive research on which online channels people choose to use, including millennials but during this federal election I was also interested in the source. What type of online sources are CPC voters looking at vs NDP? And are younger and older voters looking at content from the same source as well.

To learn what sources voters are getting their online content from we asked the following question: Regardless of the channel (social media, email, website) what % of the online content you’ve consumed about the upcoming federal election so far comes from the following types of sources?  Think about the original source of the information, rather than who shared it.

To start, the average voter is consuming half of their online federal election information from a traditional news organization as the original source. This number is high, but perhaps not that surprising as this could include content directly from the organization or seeing an article that a friend shared.

It is a good reminder however about the importance of how political parties and their leaders are performing in the media. If half of the federal election content the average voter reads is coming from traditional news sources, their frame and narrative is likely going to have an impact on voter perceptions.

Another important number to note is that only a tenth (10%) of the content voters see originates from the political party itself. This isn’t to say the party narrative isn’t important- content from this source likely does a great deal to shape the content Canadians are seeing from news organizations, big and small. But what it does show is that the media may be just as an important audience for political party content than the public itself.

And finally, I also think it’s worth noting that original content from someone like a friend or family member also represents just under a tenth (9%) of the content we are seeing online.

What about the content that different voters are seeing? It turns out that there are very little differences between the type of sources that CPC voters are seeing vs. LPC voters vs. NDP voters.

Though now seems like a good time to point out that we didn’t test which friends or which news organizations Canadians see. It’s very likely that the smaller, independent media sources seen by NDP voters, may be quite different that the smaller, independent media sources seen by CPC voters.

Where things do get more interesting is looking beyond the main ‘big tent’ parties, and at those who would consider voting for another party like the PPC or in Quebec, the Bloc.

Among those that would consider voting PPC, they are relying a lot less on traditional media (38%), and a lot more on content coming from political parties directly (13%) or smaller, independent news sources (16%).

The demographic split that does show a lot of difference in source is generation.

Those in the silent and boomer generations are getting over half of their information from traditional news organization (again, likely not all the same specific source but traditional news organizations generally). And millennials and Gen Z are relying on traditional news organizations a lot less- it represents just over a third of the online content they are consuming.

Instead, this is redistributed fairly evenly to other sources like political parties, someone they know, and issue specific organizations.

The different use of traditional media between millennials/Gen Z and nearly all other generations is important. It means that the narratives about the election and the way millennials think things are going could be very different than the perceptions older generations have. If young people are looking at different critiques and praises of the political parties, it could lead to different perceptions about how leaders are handling issues, or even who they decide to support when it comes time to vote.

THE UPSHOT According to Oksana Kishchuk:

During a campaign, messaging and narrative matter. Political parties can control their own, and do their best to shape others, but their narrative isn’t the only one that Canadians will be hearing this election. Instead, the average Canadian is relying on the narrative provided by traditional news organizations for half the content they are consuming about this election.

The reliance on sources other than traditional media for millennials/Gen Z is important too. Not only are their top issues different than older generations, but the narratives they are hearing are different too.

As the election continues on I will be interested in watching whether these different sources begin to show divisions between older and younger voters. Will impressions of Singh surge among young voters based on some engaging content he posts for his younger Instagram audience, but stay consistent among older voters who aren’t as likely to follow party’s or politicians? Or will older and younger voters have different perceptions about the events unfolding in Afghanistan as boomers turn to the reporting by traditional media and millennials/Gen Z read reports from humanitarian organizations instead?

METHODOLOGY

The data in this report come from a national survey of 2,000 Canadian adults eligible to vote from August 17 to 22, 2021. A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2% 19 times out of 20, respectively. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.

The survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

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ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

Find out more about what we are doing to help clients respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

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Each day during the 2021 Federal Election campaign, researchers at Abacus Data will share insights and analysis from our polling in concise, insights-focused reports. To never miss our polls and analysis, subscribe to our newsletter.

It is an understatement to say that how Canadians feel about the political party leaders has a big impact on how they vote. Voters are more likely to vote for a party when they rate the party leader favourably. It’s much harder for someone to vote for a party when they don’t like the leader. Favourability is not enough though. While being well-liked and respected increases the likelihood that someone will vote for you, it does not guarantee someone’s support.

After the first week of the campaign, we surveyed 2,000 eligible voters and asked a series of questions to explore in more depth how people feel about the three main party leaders: Justin Trudeau, Erin O’Toole, and Jagmeet Singh.

Here’s what we found:

JUSTIN TRUDEAU, LIBERAL LEADER

Liberal leader Justin Trudeau is viewed positively by 39% of respondents and negatively by 42%. Another 18% have a neutral view of the Liberal leader. Impressions of the Prime Minister have been fairly consistent over the past year.

He’s viewed more positively in Atlantic Canada (44%), Quebec (44%), Ontario (41%), and BC (41%) than in the Prairies (26%).

When we dig a bit deeper and ask what it is people like and dislike about him, 30% say they like both his personality and ideas, 10% like his ideas but dislike his personality, while 16% like his personality but dislike his ideas. 36% of respondents say they dislike both his ideas and personality.

• Among those who like both his personality and ideas, 76% would vote Liberal while 15% would vote NDP and 5% Conservative.
• Among those who like his ideas but not his personality, 41% would vote Liberal while 35% would vote NDP and 13% would vote Conservative.
• Among those who like his personality but not his ideas, 37% would vote NDP, 23% Conservative, and 20% Liberal.

This suggests that while personality is important, people’s views of his ideas are a bigger factor in not supporting his party.

In the survey, we also asked respondents to rate how well a series of words and phrases describe Mr. Trudeau. The Liberal leader is seen as friendly and smart by at least half of the respondents. About half also feel he’s compassionate. Fewer feel he’s a strong leader (41%), is empathetic (35%) or shares their values (35%).

On the negative side, 49% feel Mr. Trudeau is fake while 47% would describe him as untrustworthy. As we will show later in this report, this is substantially higher than the other two leaders we tested.

To better understand what attributes best predict whether someone will have a positive or negative impression of Mr. Trudeau, we used multiple regression with the attributes as the predictors of a leader’s overall impression.

For Mr. Trudeau, the strongest predictors of how people feel about him are whether someone thinks they share his values, whether he’s considered a strong leader, and whether people feel he is fake or untrustworthy.

This suggests that for Mr. Trudeau to improve his overall favourability, he needs to continue to connect his values and worldview with the public and demonstrate his strength as a leader. He also needs to work on his authenticity as being perceived as fake is the big detractor to his overall image.

ERIN O’TOOLE, CONSERVATIVE LEADER

Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole is viewed positively by 26% of respondents and negatively by 41%. Another 25% have a neutral view of the Conservative leader while 9% say they don’t know enough to have an impression. Since the start of the campaign, Mr. O’Toole’s positives have improved by 6-points.

Views of Mr. O’Toole are fairly consistent across the country with the exception of the Prairies where he’s viewed more positively.

When we dig a bit deeper and ask what it is people like and dislike about him, 18% say they like both his personality and ideas, 13% like his ideas but dislike his personality, while 9% like his personality but dislike his ideas. 35% of respondents say they dislike both his ideas and personality. 26% say they don’t know enough about him to know suggesting an opportunity for the Conservative campaign to continue increasing his profile.

• Among those who like both his personality and ideas, 76% would vote Conservative, 11% Liberal and 6% NDP.
• Among those who like his ideas but not his personality, 51% would vote Conservative, 26% Liberal, and 13% NDP.
• Among those who like his personality but not his ideas, 42% would vote Liberal, 24% NDP, and 13% Conservative.
• Among those who are unsure about him, 36% would vote Liberal, 26% NDP, 17% Conservative, and 12% BQ. Among this group, 41% are open to voting Conservative further evidence that the Conservative leader can continue to grow support if more people get to know him and like what they see from him.

In the survey, we also asked respondents to rate how well a series of words and phrases describe Mr. O’Toole. Half feel Mr. O’Toole is smart, 40% say he’s friendly, and another 40% think he’s a strong leader. 44% describe him as untrustworthy and 43% think he’s fake.

Like Mr. Trudeau, Mr. O’Toole struggles with empathy (only 32% think he understands people like them but unlike Mr. Trudeau, fewer think he shares their values (32%). Value misalignment is often a barrier for people to consider voting Conservative and Mr. O’Toole struggles with that at the moment.

When we look at the regression model for Mr. O’Toole, the strongest predictors of Mr. O’Toole’s overall impression are whether people think he understands them, whether people think he’s friendly, whether people think he shares their values, and whether people consider him to be untrustworthy and fake.

Unlike Mr. Trudeau, perceived friendliness and empathy are much more important factors in predicting whether people like or dislike Mr. O’Toole. Countering the view that Conservative leaders are uncaring, unempathetic, and out of touch will be important for Mr. O’Toole to improve his overall impressions with voters.

JAGMEET SINGH, NDP LEADER

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh is by far the most popular leader in the country. 42% have a positive view of him compared with 24% who have a negative view. Since June, his positives are up 10-points.

Mr. Singh is viewed more positively in BC (54%) and less positively in Quebec (34%). He’s around 41-42% in every other region of the country.

When we dig a bit deeper and ask what it is people like and dislike about him, 35% say they like both his personality and ideas, 9% like his ideas but dislike his personality, while 17% like his personality but dislike his ideas. 19% of respondents say they dislike both his ideas and personality. 21% say they don’t know enough about him to know suggesting an opportunity for the NDP campaign to continue increasing his profile. And evidence suggests that as people get to see and hear more from Mr. Singh, the more they like him.

• Among those who like both his personality and ideas, 52% would vote NDP, 30% Liberal, and 9% Conservative. This suggests if the Liberal campaign falters, the NDP could benefit a lot as a substantial portion of Liberal supporters like both Mr. Singh’s personality and ideas.
• Among those who like his ideas but not his personality, 48% would vote Liberal, 20% Conservative, and 18% NDP.
• Among those who like his personality but not his ideas, 48% would vote Conservative, 36% Liberal, and 4% NDP. This is evidence that many of the NDP’s core positions turn off a sizeable group of voters, even if they like Mr. Singh personally.
• Among those who are unsure about him, 39% would vote Liberal, 29% Conservative, 10% BQ, and 8% NDP.  Among this group, 32% would consider voting NDP, more evidence that NDP can grow if the party can get him out more or if he performs well in the Leaders’ Debates.

In the survey, we also asked respondents to rate how well a series of words and phrases describe Mr. Singh. Overall, Mr. Singh is viewed more favourably than the other two leaders on all of the metrics.

Two-thirds think he’s friendly, 65% feel he’s smart, and 61% describe him as compassionate. Half think he understands people like them and 48% consider him a strong leader.

On the negative side, 25% think he’s fake while 29% describe him as untrustworthy.

When we look at the regression model for Mr. Singh, the strongest predictors of his overall impression are whether people think he’s a strong leader, whether he shares their values, and whether he is compassionate. Views on whether he’s smart or empathetic don’t impact his overall impression.

Being seen as fake or untrustworthy are important predictors of his image, but not as high as with the other leaders.

For Mr. Singh then, people believe he’s friendly, empathetic and smart. What makes them more likely to think positively of him then is whether they think he’s a strong leader and shares their values. Those are things he can focus on to improve his already strong brand image.

COMPARATIVE ASSESSMENT

Before we wrap up, it’s helpful to look at how people view these leaders in comparison and dig a bit deeper.

Here’s a summary of what attributes people assign to the leaders among those with an opinion. Mr. Singh is more likely to be seen as friendly, compassionate, and smart than the other two leaders. He also scores higher on “strong leader”, empathy and “shares my values”.

When we isolate those open to voting for each of the main parties, a similar picture emerges although the gaps are smaller.

Among those open to voting Liberal, 80% think Mr. Trudeau is friendly, 73% think he’s smart, and 70% think he’s compassionate. 64% think he’s a strong leader while 58% think he shares their values. But as a liability, about 1 in 4 of those open to voting Liberal think Mr. Trudeau is fake and untrustworthy.

For Conservative accessible voters, 73% think Mr. O’Toole is smart, 65% think he’s a strong leader, while 64% think he’s friendly. Fewer feel he’s compassionate (57%), share their values (59%) or understands people like them (59%). About 1 in 5 think Mr. O’Toole is untrustworthy (22%) or fake (19%).

For Mr. Singh, who has the most room to grow among his accessible voters, 85% think he’s friendly, 81% think he’s smart, and 79% think he’s compassionate. But he also scores high on empathy (75%) and shares my values (71%). Fewer describes him as untrustworthy (17%) or fake (12%).

When we look at the 21% of the electorate we consider Liberal/NDP Switchers (those whose first choice is either Liberal or NDP and whose second choice is either Liberal or NDP), Mr. Singh leads Mr. Trudeau on all positive measures. The gap on “strong leader” is smaller than the others but Mr. Singh has a 13-point advantage on “compassionate”, a 16-point advantage on “smart” and an 18-point margin on “shares my values”.

When we look at the 9% of the electorate we consider Liberal/Conservative Switchers, Mr. Trudeau leads Mr. O’Toole on “compassion” (+11), “friendly” (+20), “empathy” (+14) and “shares my values” (+7). But Mr. O’Toole leads on “smart” (+5), “strong leader” (+5). Both are about equal on perceptions they are “fake” or “untrustworthy”.

UPSHOT

This analysis helps us understand the role leadership and character may be playing in this campaign. Mr. Singh clearly has an advantage over the other two leaders on general likeability and positive traits. He benefits from being liked by those across the political spectrum, many of whom tell us they’d never vote NDP. For example, 15% of those who have a positive view of Mr. Singh say they would not consider voting NDP. That’s higher than the equivalent cut for the Liberals and Conservatives.

For Mr. O’Toole, this data shows there’s still an opportunity for him to increase his profile and improve his overall image. His liabilities are perceptions about values and empathy which often are liabilities for Conservative leaders. But he holds his own on being smart and a strong leader.

For Mr. Trudeau, this data shows that impressions of him are largely baked in and will be harder to change. Six years in office have taken a toll on his image, especially around empathy, authenticity, and trustworthiness. That being said, he’s more popular today than he was at this point in the last campaign and carries many assets and is well-regarded by those open to voting Liberal (which is the largest group in the electorate).

Whether Mr. Singh can capitalize on the goodwill though remains to be seen. When Jack Layton broke through in 2011, he had two very polarizing (Harper) and unpopular (Ignatieff) leaders to contrast with.

He’s facing a different set of opponents this time and many of those who like him are currently voting for other parties. His popularity may help him consolidate his vote share and insulate the NDP from strategic considerations.

Our analysis shows that being liked is not a function of just one or two positive attributes. Being compassionate drives Singh’s evaluation but does not impact O’Toole or Trudeau. Voters generally view Trudeau as compassionate but this does not make them feel more favourably towards him.

There are, however, two negative attributes that strongly impact leader evaluations for all three leaders – being perceived as fake and untrustworthy. Not surprisingly, these are the two main negative attack strategies of the parties.

METHODOLOGY

The data in this report come from a national survey of 2,000 Canadian adults eligible to vote from August 17 to 22, 2021. A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2% 19 times out of 20, respectively. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.

The survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

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ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

Find out more about what we are doing to help clients respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

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