July 21, 2019

By Bruce Anderson & David Coletto

 DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE PREFERENCES

 In our latest nationwide survey, we tested the popularity of five of the leading candidates in the race.  If Canadians could help choose the Presidential nominee of the Democratic Party, Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden would have a modest edge over Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris.

The results showed that Conservative voters would lean towards Biden, Green and NDP voters towards Sanders. Liberals were split with elevated levels of support for Harris and Warren, alongside Sanders and Biden.

Regardless of which of the five names we tested were the nominee, if it were up to Canadians, Trump would be defeated in 2020.  Trump would garner between 21% and 23% of the vote, regardless of who the Democratic opponent would be.

While majorities in every part of the country would pick the Democrat over Mr. Trump, there were some notable differences.

  • Between 41% and 46% of Conservative Party supporters would vote for Trump.
  • Women were consistently about ten points more likely than men to reject Mr. Trump.
  • Albertans were consistently about 12 points more likely to support Trump.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson “Donald Trump as President has been one of the most followed news stories by Canadians since he was elected.  His approval levels in Canada have been weak from the start.  His policies, values and style are likely all part of why he is unpopular among Canadians.

When it comes to the Democratic candidates, none has become a clear front runner in Canada yet, and the lead of two higher profile men (Biden, Sanders) is not all that large over the women (Warren, Harris) who haven’t competed for the Presidency before.

In the US, polls show that Republicans are strongly united behind Donald Trump.  In Canada, Trump appears to be somewhat divisive among Conservatives – which may pose some challenges for Conservative political leaders.  Most of their supporters are uncomfortable with the US President, but a sizable minority appear to endorse Trump’s approach.”

And in case you missed it, earlier this week we released a study of the top issues Canadians tell us will drive their vote this fall: https://abacusdata.ca/election-2019-is-a-battle-to-define-the-agenda/

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 1,500 Canadians aged 18 and over from July 12 to July 17, 2019. A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.  The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

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