Join Abacus Data as a Consultant / Senior Consultant
Location: Abacus Data operates offices in Ottawa & Toronto. A Consultant can be based anywhere in Canada but will need to be able to commute to Ontario for an initial orientation and other occasional travel for corporate events.
Compensation: Salary: $65,000 to $85,000 of total compensation is typical for a Consultant role. However the compensation package may be increased or decreased to be commensurate with experience.
When we grow, you grow. As a member of our team you are eligible for an annual performance bonus based on the overall performance of the company and your part in it.
Expected start date: Late January- early February 2023, or at such a time as a suitable candidate is found.
The opportunity: At Abacus Data, a premier Canadian public opinion research & strategy agency, we are looking to capitalize on explosive growth by adding to our research team.
In these roles, you will work closely with the firm’s executive team to help service the firm’s growing roster of public and private sector clients, with abundant opportunities to take on clients on your own & job craft a research specialization as the company grows.
In the immediate term, this role will see you work on research files with the supervision of a senior lead, acting as the principal author & project manager of Abacus’ custom research survey projects.
The Consultant is responsible for assisting team leads in managing client relationships, overseeing the survey fielding & reporting process, and writing compelling, timely and strategic research reports based on public opinion survey results.
Responsibilities:
Work closely with senior research team leads to design & analyze the results of public opinion research surveys.
Liaise with the fielding & analytics team to ensure surveys are being programmed & graphically reported according to client & firm expectations.
Write high-quality analysis prose reports for our clients that are error-free, valuable, and meet the standards of our leadership team.
Manage other day to day responsibilities of research projects as directed by the senior team, including client consultation, proposal development, creation of research instruments, analysis, and presentation of final deliverables.
Requirements: The most important criteria for this role is a strong public affairs writing background with a demonstrable ability to understand data, think strategically and synthesize ideas. If you can demonstrate proficiency here but have no survey research experience, we would be thrilled to hear from you.
3 to 7 years of experience in a research role designing, executing and analyzing public opinion research projects.
Experience analyzing data and helping clients use data to make decisions.
An analytical mind that is excited about telling stories using data and research.
Clear evidence of being detail-oriented with a focus on delivery and error-free work.
Ability to create stunning presentations that tell the story in our data to our clients and potential clients.
Strong interpersonal, writing, organizational, problem-solving, and communication skills.
Ability to work with minimal supervision.
University or college degree/diploma in a related field.
Must be legally eligible to work in Canada.
Strong English language proficiency.
Bilingualism in English and French is not a requirement and will not be an impediment to your application, but please clearly specify if you are.
Apply by December 22nd at 5pm ET.
If you think you’re the right candidate for this role, please send a cover letter and CV to Ihor Korbabicz at ihor@abacusdata.ca referencing “Job 852375 – Consultant/Senior Consultant” in the subject line. Only those selected for the next round of the process will be contacted.
From November 23 to November 28, 2023, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 2,417 adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.
In this report, we share new data on:
Federal vote intentions and accessible voter pools
Approval of the federal government’s performance
Party leader impressions
Top issues and the party Canadians think is best able to handle them
Trudeau vs. Poilievre – Which do Canadians think is better able to handle some issues or scenarios
Federal Vote Intention
If an election were held today, 42% of committed voters would vote Conservatives with the Liberals at 23%, the NDP at 19% and the Greens at 5%. The BQ is at 32% in Quebec.
Since our last survey, the Conservatives are up 3 while every other party is down 1 point. The 19-point Conservative Party lead over the Liberals is the largest lead we have measured for the Conservatives since the Liberals were elected in 2015.
Regionally, the Conservatives are well ahead in western Canada, including in BC. The Conservatives lead by 15 in Atlantic Canada and by 13 in Ontario. In Quebec, we find the BQ ahead by 4 with the Conservatives and Liberals statistically tied. This is the second time in a month that we have measured the Conservatives numerically ahead of the Liberals in Quebec.
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Demographically, the Conservatives lead across all age groups. They lead by 12 among 18 to 29 year olds, 21 among 30 to 44 year olds,23 among 45 to 59 year olds and 20 among those aged 60 and over.
When we ask people if they would consider voting for each of the main political parties, 54% say they are open to voting Conservative while 42 are open to voting Liberal, 41% NDP, 27% for the Greens, and 20% for the People’s Party. In Quebec, 49% say they are open to voting BQ.
Over the past few months, the gap between the Conservative and Liberal accessible voter pools has increased to the point where the Conservative pool is 12-points larger than that of the Liberals
Other Underlying Opinions
Beyond vote intention, our latest survey finds little change in other key items we track.
The federal government’s approval rating is largely unchanged with 27% approving and 57% disapproving.
When it comes to federal party leader impressions, Pierre Poilievre is currently the only party leader with a net favourable impression. Currently 39% have a positive impression of the Conservative leader while 33% have a negative impression for a net score of +6.
Justin Trudeau’s net favourable is largely unchanged. Today, 28% have a positive impression compared with 56% who have a negative one for a net score of -28.
Jagmeet Singh, whose net impression has shifted from positive to negative over the past few weeks, finds 34% with a positive view and 35% with a negative view with a net score of -1.
To assess momentum, we ask people whether their impression of each leader is getting better, worse, or not changing over the past few weeks. Despite what some have said was a bad week for Mr. Poilievre, there doesn’t appear to be much of evidence of the public shifting their impressions. In fact, the net momentum scores are largely the same for each leader as they were earlier in November.
85% of Canadians would like to see a change in government with 52% feeling there is a good alternative to the Liberals available and 32% feeling there isn’t, despite a desire for change. Today, only 15% of Canadians believe Justin Trudeau and the Liberals deserve to be re-elected, down 6 points since we first asking this question in June (and before the cabinet shuffle).
All five outcomes offer the Liberals some hope that they could rebuild their winning coalition, but there’s no clear silver bullet, including the Prime Minister stepping down as leader before the next election. It’s likely a combination of these will need to happen to overcome the desire for change people are feeling.
Top Issues
The rising cost of living remains a top issue to 3 in 4 Canadians. Housing affordability has risen to the second most ranked issue (+3 since August) while healthcare has fallen to second place. Of note, while 1 in 5 Canadians rate climate change as one of their top 3 issues, it is down 8 points since August.
When those who rate an issue are asked which party is best able to handle it, the Conservatives lead the Liberals by 22 points on the cost of living, 16 among those who care about housing affordability, and 12 points among those who care about healthcare. They also have a 31-point advantage among those who think the economy is one of their top 3 issues.
Climate change is the only issue in which the Liberals lead other parties – with an 16-point advantage over the Conservatives among those who care about the issue.
The NDP has a 12-point advantage over the Liberals on housing and a 15-point advantage on inequality and poverty.
Finally, when we ask people whther Justin Trudeau or Pierre Poilievre is better able to handle several issues or scenarios, Poilievre leads on all except for climate change.
Poilievre has a 25-point lead on keeping taxes as low as possible, a 23-point lead on the economy, a 20-point lead on making life more affordable, and a 18-point lead on who would be best to deal with another Trump presidency.
Poilievre’s advantage over Trudeau is smaller when it comes to healthcare and childcare. On climate action, Trudeau has a small 3-point lead over Poilievre.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “The Conservatives continue to gain over the Liberals, with their national lead rising to its largest in our tracking. The Liberals are trailing across every demographic group and in every region of the country – including Quebec.
While Trudeau’s impression remains decidedly negative, Poilievre is the only leader with a net favourable impression.
More importantly perhaps – on the key issues – whether it’s the cost of living, housing, healthcare, or the economy – the Conservative Party and the Conservative leader has a big advantage over the Liberals.
Even on climate change, Trudeau’s advantage over Poilievre is limited – 3 points and those who rate the issue as a top priority has fallen eight points since August.
Ultimately, I believe strongly that most voters ultimately vote for the party that they believe will best handle the issue they care most about. As scarcity becomes the primary concen for most people, the Conservatives have appealed more to these voters and find themselves in the most favourable position they have been in a long time. You have to go back to late 2008 to find a time when the Conservative Party was regularly polling around 40%.
Want to join our team or know someone should?
We are looking to fill two roles as our company grows rapidly.
The survey was conducted with 2,417 Canadian adults from November 23 to November 28, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.0%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
From November 23 to 28, 2023, Abacus Data conducted a survey of 1,500 Ontario adults exploring their views on provincial politics and government. This survey was part of our regular national omnibus surveys.
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Ontario’s political scene is currently a fascinating study in resilience, redemption, and opportunity.
The Progressive Conservative Party, under Doug Ford’s leadership, has reversed a drop in support and currently has almost a 20-point lead in vote intention, despite recent controversies, notably the Greenbelt land swap issue. The Ontario Liberal Party, meanwhile, is on the cusp of a potentially transformative leadership change, poised to reshape its future.
PC’s Steady Ascendancy and Regional Dominance
If an election were held today, the PCs would likely clinch another majority with 42% of committed voters’ support, reflecting a significant rebound from their lowest point in September. This 8-point recovery is not just a numerical uptick; it’s a testament to the party’s strategic recalibrations and Premier Ford’s ability to apologize and for a sizeable portion of his supporters and non-supporters to accept his mistakes and move on.
Analyzing the data demographically and regionally, the PCs lead convincingly across almost all groups. The only exception is the under-30 demographic, where they are neck-and-neck with the NDP and Liberals. This widespread appeal across various segments of society underscores the party’s successful outreach and policy resonance with a diverse electorate.
Public Perception of Doug Ford and Policy Decisions
In terms of leadership perception, 32% approve of Doug Ford’s job performance, with a notable decrease in disapproval ratings. This shift indicates a recovering confidence in his governance, further bolstered by a 7-point increase since October in Ontarians who believe Ford prioritizes the province’s interests over personal or partisan gains.
The Greenbelt land swap controversy has been a pivotal issue, initially met with widespread opposition. However, the government’s decision to reverse this plan and return the land to the Greenbelt was met with overwhelming approval, demonstrating Ford’s ability to respond to public sentiment and potentially mitigate political fallout.
Political Calculations and Public Trust
The perception of political motivation behind Ford’s reversal decision is significant, with a majority viewing it as a move to alleviate political pressure. However, nearly half of Ontarians also perceive recent government decisions as indicative of Ford’s willingness to accept responsibility, a sentiment strongly shared among PC voters. This duality of public perception highlights the complex interplay between political strategy and leadership accountability.
Liberal Leadership Race: Limited Engagement but Bonnie Crombie is by far the most well known candidate
In the backdrop of these developments, the Ontario Liberal Party’s leadership race is unfolding with Bonnie Crombie emerging as the expected winner and most well known. Despite limited public engagement in the race, those aware of it overwhelmingly view Crombie as the likely winner. Her double-fold name recognition advantage over other candidates places her in a uniquely advantageous position, potentially revitalizing the Liberals’ prospects.
Ontario Liberal Leadership Race & the PC dominance: A More Competitive Environment with Bonnie Crombie?
As the Ontario Liberal Party (OLP) prepares to announce its new leader, the spotlight intensifies on the potential candidates, particularly Bonnie Crombie. Her presence in the race brings a dynamic shift. With Crombie at the helm, the survey suggests the gap between the Liberals and PCs could narrow significantly, trimming the PCs’ lead to just 8 points. Crombie’s name recognition and political experience mark her as not just a viable contender but a potential threat to Ford’s stronghold.
The Upshot:
According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “The Ontario political landscape is currently characterized by the PCs’ resilient popularity and strategic adaptability under Doug Ford’s leadership. The party’s recovery and sustained support across diverse demographics highlight how resilient Ford’s brand is in weathering the Greenbelt storm.
Moreover, Ford’s ability to maintain support amidst global inflation can be largely attributed to his longstanding commitment to taxpayer interests. Throughout his political career, Ford has consistently championed policies aimed at reducing financial burdens on the public. Key measures such as lowering taxes, eliminating fees for services like license plate renewals, and removing tolls from highways have resonated positively with his supporters.
These actions have reinforced his image as a leader dedicated to easing the financial strain on citizens, which is particularly significant during periods of economic hardship. While inflation has posed challenges for many incumbent governments, Ford’s consistent focus on financial relief has helped prevent the alienation of his support base, setting him apart from other leaders who have struggled under similar economic pressures. This approach has not only solidified his existing support but also potentially attracted voters who prioritize fiscal conservatism and government actions that directly alleviate personal financial burdens.
The impending leadership change in the Ontario Liberal Party, especially with Bonnie Crombie’s candidacy, introduces an element of competitiveness and potential political transformation.
We may be heading back to a more competitive political environment, especially if Bonnie Crombie wins the leadership. She is by far the greatest threat at the moment to Ford and the PCs in large part because of her name recognition advantage over the other three candidates.”
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,500 eligible voters in Ontario adults from November 23 to 28, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
From November 9 to 12, 2023, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 2,000 Canadians (18+) to assess their perceptions of immigration in Canada today. In this survey, we explored public perspectives shaping the national dialogue on immigration and compare results from a similar survey we conducted in July 2023.
The results indicate that public concern about Canada’s immigration targets as concerns about housing, healthcare capacity, and growth overwhelm the perceived benefits of immigration.
AWARENESS AND TARGETS
As Canada prepares to welcome almost 500,000 new immigrants in 2024, the results reveal a notable lack of awareness among Canadians regarding the current immigration targets. Specifically, only 31% of Canadians are informed about the immigration targets set for 2024. Half of Canadians believe that Canada will welcome fewer than 200,000 immigrants in the upcoming year. These findings underscore a widespread lack of awareness regarding the volume of new immigrants Canada is expecting to welcome in 2024.
Two in three Canadians (67%) believe the current immigration target is too high, increasing by 6-points increase since July. More disconcerting is the fact that 2 in 5 Canadians deem the anticipated number of new immigrants as “way too high,” with only 2% considering it too low. These findings emphasize a mounting concern regarding Canada’s immigration targets.
There is a correlation between age and perspectives on immigration targets, as older Canadians (60+; 74% and 45 to 59; 71% consider it too high) are more likely to think the target is too high compared to their younger counterparts (18-29; 54% consider it too high). Additionally, political affiliations play a substantial role, with 82% of Conservative Party voters in the last federal election thinking the target is too high, 20-points higher than Liberal Party voters. Nevertheless, despite the difference in opinion across the political spectrum, a majority of all party supporters think the current immigration target is too high, suggesting a cross-partisan consensus is forming.
COMMUNITY GROWTH AND NEEDS
Most Canadians believe the immigration population in their community is growing – with about 4 in 10 thinking it is growing significantly (up from 35% in July), while 23% note a moderate rise (slightly down from 24% in July) in immigration. Overall, this suggests that 3 in 5 Canadians believe that the new immigrant population in their communities is growing (moderately to significantly).
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Additionally, regarding perceptions of immigration needs, 47% indicated their community requires fewer immigrants than the current influx, marking a 6-point increase since July (41%). In Ontario, 52% believe their community needs fewer new immigrants, compared to 36% in Quebec. It is noteworthy that Quebecers are more likely to say their community needs more immigrant than Canadians in other regions of the country (QC 25% vs. ROC 13%).
WHAT IS DRIVING PERCEPTIONS ABOUT IMMIGRATION?
Canadian opinion on immigration is quite rational. On the one hand, many Canadians believe that the immigration targets will have positive impacts on business investment, labour shortages, and economic growth. On the other, majorities believe the immigration targets will have a negative impact on housing affordability and availability, healthcare, and congestion.
We also note a noticeable decline in positive perceptions since July. Specifically, an increasing number of Canadians express doubts about positive impacts on the availability of workers, fostering economic growth, access to healthcare, crime and safety, congestion, and housing affordability. This dynamic shift underscores a changing narrative, as Canadians grapple with perceived negative repercussions of the influx of new immigrants on various aspects of their daily lives.
When examining key demographics, results reveal that younger Canadians exhibit a higher inclination to believe that the influx of new immigrants will yield positive impacts across various aspects. This trend is also observed among those who cast their votes for the Liberal Party in the 2021 elections. On the contrary, older Canadians, particularly those aged 45-59 and 60+, and individuals who supported the Conservative Party in the 2021 elections, are more prone to the belief that the arrival of new immigrants has predominantly negative effects across all areas.
OVERALL SENTIMENT
Only 24% of Canadians hold the view that the present level of immigration is contributing positively to the country (vs. 28% in July), with a notable 43% expressing the belief that it is adversely affecting Canada (vs. 36% in July). The breakdown of these perspectives reveals that younger Canadians and Liberal Party voters tend to see immigration as having a positive on Canada, with 32% of those aged 18-29 and 35% of Liberal voters believing it makes the country better off. In contrast, older Canadians and Conservative Party voters are more inclined to perceive immigration as having negative consequences, with only 18% of those aged 45-49 and 18% of Conservative voters thinking it makes Canada better off.
CONCLUSION
For a long time, it was conventional wisdom that Canada is unique among peer nations in our openness and acceptance of immigration. But as this survey highlights, conventional wisdom is being challenged. As a scarcity mindset sets in, concerns about the availability and affordability of housing, capacity of the healthcare system, and possibly a recession approach are causing people to reassess the appropriateness of such ambitious immigration targets. This survey highlights the fluidity and dynamism inherent in public opinion.
The intricate interplay between age, political affiliations, and perceptions of community impact highlights the imperative need for nuanced discussions on immigration policy that account for the diverse perspectives within the Canadian population.
Public Discourse and Awareness: The survey highlights a lack of awareness among Canadians regarding the planned number of immigrants in 2024. Many Canadians will likely be surprised to learn the actual targets the federal government has set.
Political Dynamics: The correlation between political affiliations and perceptions of immigration targets suggests that immigration policies and debates may become more prevalent as entrepreneurial political leaders look to respond to public pressure.
Generational Divide: The survey highlights a generational divide in perceptions of immigration impact, indicating the importance of tailored strategies for communication and engagement across different age groups. Addressing concerns among older age groups and fostering understanding between generations will be crucial for creating a more cohesive societal perspective on immigration in Canada.
We will continue to track these opinions over time and explore other aspects of immigration.
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 2,000 Canadian adults from November 9 to 12, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.19%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
On behalf of The Canadian Lung Association, Abacus Data conducted an online nationwide survey of Canadians’ views on air quality and its relationship to emissions and climate change. The sample size of the survey is n=2,200 adult Canadians, fielded October 27th to November 1st, 2023. The data was weighted to match Canada’s population by age, gender, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
In 2023, half of Canadians reported that outdoor air quality is having an increased impact on their daily lives, with more than a third reporting direct impact on their health.
52% of Canadians say air quality is having a bigger impact on the decisions they make in their daily lives. Impact is similar across the country- with young people in Canada feeling the biggest consequences on their daily lives.
36% of Canadians say climate change is directly impacting their health because of the worsening air pollution associated with climate change. This is a 6-point increase from 2021. Additionally, 48% are concerned about the impacts of air quality from climate change on future generations. Health concerns are felt across the country but most acutely in BC, Ontario, and Quebec.
2023 was Canada’s worst year for wildfires- by September over 6,000 wildfires were reported with hectares burned sailing past previous records. A reminder that this survey was fielded a few months after the worst of the season when relatively few Canadians were actively experiencing poor air quality due to wildfire smoke. Yet, the wildfire experiences of this summer have clearly left an impression on Canadians. Compared to 2021 we see a significant increase in concerns about air quality outdoors.
68% of Canadians are concerned about the quality of air outdoors – an 18-point increase from 2021. This includes 27% who say they are very concerned. Concern is high across the country and isn’t just concentrated to those living in urban areas or near forest fires- those in Ontario express the greatest level of concern (perhaps many of them experiencing the effects of wildfires on air quality for the first time).
64% of Canadians say in the last year they’ve noticed a bigger impact on their health from worsening air quality related to climate change events like wildfires- 21% strongly agree.
For Canadians living with a lung condition- these effects are even greater.
Two-thirds of Canadians living with a lung condition say air quality is having a bigger impact on the decisions they make in their daily lives- 12 points higher than Canadians overall. Among those with a lung condition, 73% say they’ve noticed a bigger impact on their health from worsening air quality related to climate change events.
Given the increased focus on air quality in the last year, Canadians are eager to see climate change solutions that focus on air quality and health.
When addressing climate change, 84% want climate change solutions that focus on air quality to be a priority– 32% strongly agree. A majority of Canadians across the country, in all age groups and voters of all major political parties support this focus.
UPSHOT
As we near the end of 2023 and reflect on the past year, we can see that the wildfires earlier this year were a focusing event for concern about air quality related to climate change. We see a significant increase in concern for outdoor air quality, overall, even after fires have subsided.
A majority of Canadians are closing out the year feeling as though air quality is having a greater impact on their lives- from their health to the choices they make on a day-to-day basis. Going forward, Canadians want to see a greater focus on climate change solutions that address air quality.
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
A few weeks ago, we partnered with the Indigenous Leadership Initiative to gauge Canadians’ support for innovative Indigenous stewardship programs through an in-depth survey of 2,000 Canadian adults (fielded October 24th to 27th, 2023).
Indigenous Guardians are trained experts who care for lands and waters on behalf of their First Nations. They test water quality, manage protected areas, restore species at risk, monitor development projects, and support language and culture programs. There are more than 160 First Nations Guardians programs now operating across Canada. You can learn more here.
We ran a survey where we introduced Canadians to these Guardians programs, and asked them to tell us how they felt about their work and federal funding for their programs. In short, Canadians are on board. 3 in 4 Canadians support Guardians programs after reading a description of them, and an equal proportion support the federal government investing in Guardians programs to fulfil their functions. Support for both Indigenous Guardians and federal funding is decidedly cross partisan.
Canadians see Guardians programs as a cost-effective solution to some big challenges. It’s clear that even in the current economic context, Canadians remain highly concerned about climate change and the need to conserve nature.
David Coletto, Chair & CEO Abacus Data
It’s not hard to see why. Most Canadians are acutely aware of climate change’s impacts, from increased wildfires and flooding to landslides and destruction of animal habitats and communities. They see Indigenous Guardians playing a helpful role in grappling with these challenges.
When Indigenous Guardians’ functions are presented to Canadians, ~8 in 10 view the functions as important, from testing water quality (84%) and managing protected nature and wildlife areas (84%) to advising on emergency response tactics (81%).
And they understand both the urgency and logic of investing in Indigenous Guardians. 7 in 10 agree:
Climate change and its effect on our northern boreal forests is only going to get worse (69%)
Federal government departments are not always best placed and nor do they have enough staff in locations to do this necessary climate mitigation work (71%)
Having Indigenous Peoples and their Nations performing these land management functions is most cost-effective approach (69%)
Indigenous Nations are best suited to lead conservation and stewardship initiatives in their territories as they are more deeply integrated with the land (67%).
For these reasons and more, Canadians prefer Indigenous Guardians led conservation over having federal departments spend money on more staff. Our survey found that 7 in 10 Canadians prefer leveraging Indigenous Guardians programs to add more northern coverage, over having the federal government hire more conservation officers.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data Chair & CEO David Coletto: “Canadians see Guardians programs as a cost-effective solution to some big challenges. It’s clear that even in the current economic context, Canadians remain highly concerned about climate change and the need to conserve nature. And crucially in this affordability crisis, the public views Guardians as an economical and responsible way to address conservation, reconciliation, and climate change. To that end, its clear that how Canadian ratepayers feel about these programs is stronger than just support for the work. They are on board with putting federal funding towards these initiatives, seeing a prudent way to spend tax dollars on the challenges we collectively face.”
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 2,000 Canadian adults from October 24 to 29, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
From November 15 to 22 2023, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 3,450 adults that asked Canadians how they would vote if an election was held at the time of the survey as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.
In this report, we share results of that survey and take advantage of the large sample size to explore demographic, regional, and socio-economic factors correlated with vote in more detail than usual.
Federal Vote Intention
If an election were held today, 39% of committed voters would vote Conservatives with the Liberals at 24%, the NDP at 20% and the Greens at 5%. The BQ is at 35% in Quebec.
Since our last survey, we see almost no change with the Conservatives down 2, the NDP up 1, and the Liberals down 1.
Regionally, the Conservatives are well ahead in western Canada, including in BC. The Conservatives lead by 8 in Atlantic Canada and 14 in Ontario. In Quebec, we find the BQ ahead of the Liberals by 7 with the Conservatives another 8-points behind the Liberals.
Outside Quebec, the Conservatives hold a 21-point lead over both the Liberals and the NDP. The Liberals and NDP are tied at 23% outside of Quebec.
In Ontario, the Conservatives are numerically ahead in every region. They lead the Liberals by 3 in Metro Toronto, by 13 in the Greater Toronto/Hamilton Area (postal codes start with L), by 13 in Eastern Ontario, and by 32 in Southwestern Ontario. Note, due to a smaller sample size in Northern Ontario, we didn’t report the results.
Demographically, the Conservatives lead across all age groups. They lead by 5 among 18 to 29 year olds, 17 among 30 to 44 year olds, 19 among 45 to 59 year olds and 15 among those aged 60 and over.
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The Conservatives lead by 18 among men and 11 among women.
The Conservatives also lead among those with all levels of education. They are ahead by 15 among those with high school or less, 21 among those with a college degree or apprenticeships, and 9 among those with a university education.
The Conservative lead by almost 20 points among homeowners but also lead among those who rent or live with family.
Among employed Canadians, the Conservatives lead the Liberals by 10 among those members of a private sector union, 6 among public sector union members, and 18 among employed Canadians not members of a union.
Today vs. November 2022
Comparing vote intention today across regional, demographic, and socio-economic variables shows the Conservatives have made significant gains across the country and across groups.
Some of the biggest gains for the Conservatives are among or in:
Atlantic Canada: +11
Private sector unions: +7
30 to 44 year olds: +5
Ontario: +5
For the Liberals, the biggest drop in support happened among or in:
Atlantic Canada: -13
30 to 44 year olds: -9
College educated: -9
University education: -8
Ontario: -8
Women: -7
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data Chair & CEO David Coletto: “It appears that the political opinions have stablized for now with the Conservatives holding a double digit lead since July. This lead is broad-based and crosses several demographic, regional, and socio-economic subgroups.
The Liberal vote has dropped another point to 24%, the lowest in our tracking since 2015 while the NDP vote is up to 20%. Outside of Quebec, the Liberals and NDP are tied at 23%. The gap between the Liberald and NDP – a symbolically important gap – has closed from 10 points in July to 4 points today.
The survey was conducted with 3,450 Canadian adults from November 15 to 22, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.7%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
Conservative insiders are trying to boost Pierre Poilievre’s image. A new poll suggests their plan may be working. More Canadians know Poilievre and like him than did this past July, an Abacus Data survey provided exclusively to the Star shows.
Abacus Data CEO David Coletto joins the podcast to explain MRP polling, a technique that he says is a “game changer” hat will allow pollsters to better predict what Canadians think, and how they will vote, at a local level.
This summer, we partnered with the Toronto Star to explore how Canadians feel about Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. In July, we conducted a benchmark survey that looked at what Canadians felt they knew about Mr. Poilievre, how they felt about him, and how they would described.
Our intent was to re-ask the same questions months later to understand how the Conservative Party’s efforts to introduce and re-introduce its leader impacted public familiarity and impressions of him. In essence, we designed a pre- and post- study design, something we do often with clients who are planning to go in market to shift public opinion.
The results of this post-survey are based on a national representative survey of 2,000 Canadian adults conducted from November 9 to 12, 2023.
Key Findings:
Increased Familiarity and Visibility: There has been a significant increase in the number of Canadians who are familiar with Mr. Poilievre. Compared to July, there’s a 7-point increase in those who say they know him well, equivalent to about 2.1 million Canadian adults. This increase in familiarity is consistent across different regions and age groups, indicating the effectiveness of the Conservative Party’s efforts to raise his profile.
Improvement in Positive Impressions: Mr. Poilievre’s positive impressions among Canadians have increased. Now, 37% of Canadians have a positive impression of him, with an increase in favorable views from various demographics, including past Conservative, Liberal, and NDP voters. His favorability is higher compared to the previous Conservative leaders at similar points in their tenure and he is currently the most popular federal party leader.
Perception of Personality and Ideas: The public’s view of Mr. Poilievre’s personality and ideas has also evolved positively. More people now perceive him as moderate, compassionate, and down-to-earth. A majority of those who feel they know him well view him as genuine, strong, and compassionate.
Some Clarity on Political Stance and Potential Impact as Prime Minister: There’s an increase in the number of Canadians who feel they have a good understanding of what Mr. Poilievre and the Conservative Party would do if elected. This is reflected in the fact that 26% of respondents have a very good sense of his and the party’s plans, with another 34% having a fairly good sense. Additionally, there’s an increase in the percentage of people who would be happy or pleased if Mr. Poilievre became the Prime Minister, indicating a shift in public opinion and potential impact on future elections.
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Here’s a detailed look at what we found.
Those who think they know Mr. Poilievre very or pretty well has increased by 7-points since July.
The efforts by the Conservative Party to increase the profile of Mr. Poilievre have paid significant dividends already. Today, 62% of Canadians say they know Mr. Poilievre very or pretty well, a 7-point increased from July. That’s the equilavent of 2.1 million Canadian adults who know feel they know the Conservative leader better than they did in the summer.
Compared with other federal leaders, Mr. Poilievre is certainly better known, but still trails both Mr. Trudeau and Mr. Singh in the proportion of those who have a good sense of who the leader is.
Familiarity with Mr. Poilievre has increased across the board, from a 10-point increase in BC and among those aged 18 to 29 to a 4-point increase in Quebec. About equal numbers of men and women now feel more familiar with him.
Impression have Mr. Poilievre have become more positive over this period.
Today, 37% of Canadians have a positive impression of Mr. Poilievre while 33% have a negative impression. 21% say they have a neutral impression while 8% don’t know much about it. Compared to July, his favourables are up 6, negatives up 2, and those who don’t know enough to say are down 2.
When we compared how people feel about Mr. Poilievre with how Canadians felt about the previous two leaders at this junction in their leadership, Mr. Poilievre is as known as Mr. O’Toole was following the 2021 election campaign and substantially more well know and defined that Mr. Scheer was at the same point in his leader.
Comparatively speaking, Mr. Poilievre is now the most popular federal party leader with more having a favourable view of him than any other leader, including NDP leader Jagmeet Singh.
When we look how different groups have responded to Mr. Poilievre, we find that positive impressions have increased most in Ontario (+9), BC (+7), and Atlantic Canada (+5). They have also increased by double digits among those aged 60 and over (+10). He’s seen a 7-point increase in favourable impressions among women and +5 among men.
Across past party voters, his favourables among past Conservative voters are up 8, +7 among past Liberal voters, and +3 among NDP supporters. Today, 21% of past Liberal voters, 14% of past NDP supporters, and 48% of past People’s Party voters have a favourable view of the Conservative leader.
We also wanted to better understand what people like and dislike about Pierre Poilievre. Today, 33% say they like both his personality and ideas (up 6 since July), 11% like his ideas but not his personality (up 1), 7% like his personality but dislike his ideas (up 1) and 28% dislike both his ideas and his personality (down 2). 21% continue to say they don’t know enough about him to say (down 6 from July).
Digging deeper, we also show people words that could be used to describe Mr. Poilievre. Overall, we find more people use positive words to describe him than in July. The biggest shift is those who think he is moderate rather than extreme (+5), compassionate rather than uncaring (+4), and down to earth rather than elitist (+5).
Among those who say they feel they know Mr. Poilievre well, a majority or close to a majority view him as geniune rather than phoney, stronger rather than week, compassionate rather than caring, and down to earth rather than elitist. Many are not sure whether he is either forgiving or vengeful and about equal numbers see him as extreme rather than moderate.
We also tracked whether people feel they have a good sense of what Poilievre and the Conservatives would do if they should win the next election. Keep in mind, far more Canadians today believe the Conservatives will win the next election than those who think the Liberals will win.
Overall, 26% say they have a very good sense of what he and the party would do if elected, that’s up 3-points. Another 34% think they have a fairly good sense of what they do, up 3 as well. Those who say they don’t know what they would do if elected account for 22% of the public and that’s down 4-points since July.
Among those who want a change in government and feel there is a good alternative out there, 68% signal they have at least a pretty good idea what a Poilievre-led government would do, up 3 points since July.
Finally, when asked how they would react if Poilievre became Prime Minister after the next election, 39% say they would be very happy or pleased, up 6 points since July while those who would be disappointed or very unhappy (31%) has dropped by 5-points.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data Chair & CEO David Coletto: “This pre-/post- study finds a clear shift in public perceptions and impressions of Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. Familiarity and positive impressions of the Conservative leader have materially changed over the past several months.
This uptick is a clear testament to the success of the Conservative Party’s strategic efforts to elevate Mr. Poilievre’s profile through targeted advertising and campaign-like events. These initiatives have not only enhanced his visibility but have also positively influenced the public’s perception of him. The increase in the number of Canadians who feel they know him well, coupled with a rise in positive impressions, suggests that these marketing strategies are indeed paying dividends. The data shows that Mr. Poilievre is now more well-known and favorably viewed than his predecessors at similar points in their leadership (even after a national election campaign), and he currently stands as the most popular federal party leader.
However, the evolving political narrative also presents an opportunity for rival parties like the Liberals, NDP, and Bloc Quebecois. While Mr. Poilievre’s profile has grown, there remains room to further define his political persona and policies in the public eye. This scenario offers a window for opposition parties to craft and disseminate their counter-narratives, potentially influencing public opinion and redefining the political discourse. The challenge for these parties will be to effectively communicate their perspectives and policies, thereby capitalizing on the still-malleable public perception of Mr. Poilievre and the Conservatives.
The initial success of the Conservative Party’s efforts is also reflected in the gains they have made in vote intention, as indicated by a release we put out earlier this week.
This shift underscores the effectiveness of their current strategies in not only increasing Mr. Poilievre’s popularity but also potentially swaying the electorate’s intentions in future elections. The dynamic nature of public opinion, however, suggests that the political landscape remains fluid. The coming months will likely see continued efforts by all parties to shape and influence public perception, which will be crucial in the run-up to any future election.”
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 2,000 Canadian adults from November 9 to 12, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
