Tomorrow night (hopefully), we will finally find out who will be the next American President. It’s been a campaign unlike any other and even in the final hours before the votes get counted, it’s not entirely clear who will win.
But there are reasons to be cautious about these projections.
The polls have been much more volatile than in past elections. Even within some key states, recent polls have told very different stories about the state of the race. In Colorado, for example, one poll found the race tied while another found Clinton with a 5-point lead. There is a chance that polls are systematically missing something.
Recent experiences in the UK and in some states during the primaries confirm that we should be cautious about interpreting poll results and using them to predict election outcomes. Polls are not perfect instruments – they are estimates whose accuracy is determined by far more than the methodology or quality of the survey. For example, estimating who will show up to vote on Election Day is the hardest task for polling to get right. Are there “shy Trump voters”? What will news coverage focus on in the final 24 hours and how will that affect turnout? Is Clinton’s voter turnout operation as good as everyone thinks? How has advance voting impacted the race in different states? Polls can’t easily answer these types of questions but they will have major impacts on an election that has become much closer in the past two weeks.
What is clear, however, is that Donald Trump has far fewer paths to the 270 electoral votes needed to win the election than Hillary Clinton. Even if Trump wins Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Arizona, Iowa, New Hampshire, Georgia, and Utah (it’s a toss up in many of these states right now), he still needs to win at least one more state where polling suggests Clinton’s lead is larger. The likely targets are Nevada, Colorado, Pennsylvania, or Michigan.
If you tune in Tuesday evening to watch this circus finally come to an end, here’s a guide to what to look for:
• Florida – most polls close at 7:00pm ET: As almost 50% of the state will have voted in advance polls, we should get an early sense of where things stand. If Trump isn’t close in these early returns, that could signal a bad night for him. He must win Florida if he has any chance at winning the election.
• North Carolina & Ohio – polls close at 7:30pm ET: If Trump wins Florida, he also needs to win both North Carolina and Ohio. If he has taken the lead in Florida and builds up a lead in both states, he’s on the road to 270.
• Michigan, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania – polls close at 8pm ET: These are Clinton’s firewall states. If Trump wins in two or more of these states, he will very likely be President.
• Colorado & Arizona – polls close at 9pm ET: If Trump wins FL, OH, NC, and NH then these two states become critical for both campaigns. If Trump wins Colorado and Arizona, he would only need 4 more electoral votes to win (Iowa and Nevada has six a piece). If Clinton wins both, Clinton is President.
• Iowa & Nevada – polls close at 10pm ET: If Trump has won FL, OH, NC, NH, CO, and AZ, he must win one of these two states to pull off the win. Iowa is his best bet given the polls released this weekend.
This path to 270 assumes that the results are clear in every state and recounts are not required. Given how close this race is, we may not know who has won the election by the end of the day.
Oh, and don’t forget the race for control of the Senate is also close and will have major consequences on policy direction over the coming years.
Our final release from the survey of 600 eligible voters we conducted for VOCM News focuses on the race to replace Paul Davis as leader of the Progressive Conservative Party of Newfoundland and Labrador.
We tested the reputation of four potential leadership candidates among our survey respondents and put them in a trial ballot. The candidates we included in our survey were former deputy premier Steve Kent, former minister John Ottenheimer, lawyer Ches Crosbie, and former minister Dave Brazil.
Here are highlights of the findings:
• Steve Kent and John Ottenheimer, who both ran in the previous PC Leadership election, have the most defined images of the four candidates we tested.
• Steve Kent is viewed positively by one in four NL residents but has the highest negatives with 25% of NL residents saying they have a negative impression of him. 51% have a neutral impression of him. Among current PC Party supporters, 41% view Mr. Kent positively, 14% negatively, while 45% are neutral towards the former deputy premier.
• As the runner-up to Paul Davis in the previous PC Leadership race, John Ottenheimer would start another run at the top job with good personal numbers. Across the province, 28% have a positive impression of him compared with 12% who have a negative impression. Among PC supporters, 41% have a positive impression versus 8% who have a negative impression.
• Ches Crosbie is less known than the other two candidates but also has a net positive impression. Province-wide, 21% have a positive impression of Mr. Crosbie while 18% have a negative impression. Among PC supporters, 30% have a positive impression while 13% view him negatively.
• Former Service ML minister Dave Brazil is the least known of the four potential candidates. Three-quarters of NL residents have a neutral impression of Mr. Brazil while 10% have a positive impression and 15% view him negatively. Among PC supporters, 15% a positive impression while the same proportion view him negatively.
• When we ask respondents for their preference for PC leader among the four potential candidates, 22% would pick Steve Kent followed by 19% for John Ottenheimer, and 14% for Ches Crosbie. 3% would pick Dave Brazil and 42% are undecided.
• Among PC supporters, Steve Kent is the first choice of 35%, followed by John Ottenheimer at 24%, and Ches Crosbie at 14%. One in four PC supporters said they are undecided at this point.
THE UPSHOT
The race to replace Paul Davis as PC Leader has not started yet but our first read on the potential race finds that former leadership candidates Steve Kent and John Ottenheimer are best placed with the general public and PC Party supporters at the moment.
Mr. Kent would win a hypothetical ballot against John Ottenheimer, Ches Crosbie and Dave Brazil today among PC supporters. He is generally well liked after serving as the province’s deputy premier during the Davis years.
But Mr. Ottenheimer would also bring many strengths of his own to the race if he decides to run again. He is well liked by a large portion of the PC support base and came a close second to Paul Davis in the 2014 PC leadership election.
For Mr. Crosbie, polling suggests he could be a dark horse in the race. Less defined with a substantial portion of PC supporters having positive things to say about him, Mr. Crosbie could position himself as the non-politician in the race as the PCs look to move past the Williams-Dunderdale-Davis years.
Finally, for Mr. Brazil, if he does decide to run he will need to spend much of the early days of the campaign introducing himself to PC members and the public as his public image is limited and undefined at this point – both a weakness and an opportunity.
METHODOLOGY
The hybrid online/telephone survey was conducted with 604 eligible voters living in Newfoundland and Labrador. 300 interviews were conducted with a random sample of residents by telephone. 304 interviews were conducted online with panelists recruited from Leger’s research panel. The survey was completed from October 20 to 27, 2016.
The margin of error for a probability-based random sample of 600 respondents using a probability sample is +/- 4.1%, 19 times out of 20.
In this report we highlight the views of current PC Party supporters. A total of 115 PC Party supporters were interviewed as part of this survey. The margin of error for his subsample is + 9.3%, 19 times out of 20.
The data was statistically weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched the population of Newfoundland and Labrador. The tables within this report detail the weighted and unweighted counts for the sample. Note the small sample sizes when reviewing results in subgroups.
ABACUS DATA INC.
We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value-added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD.
Concern about the budget deficit and Muskrat Falls up from last year.
Yesterday we released new polling data that showed the provincial government’s approval rating at 22% and a close three-way horse race for party support. Today, we release additional findings from the survey of 600 eligible voters in Newfoundland and Labrador on top issues and economic perceptions.
TOP ISSUES
• The economy and jobs remains the top issue to more NL residents. Unprompted, one in three said the economy or jobs (35%) was the top issue facing Newfoundland and Labrador, largely unchanged from last November. The budget deficit or government debt (15%), the Muskrat Falls hydroelectric project (14%), and health care (8%) rounded out the top four.
• Mentions of the budget deficit and Muskrat Falls are both up 12 points since last November, the last time we conducted a province-wide survey.
• Men and women were almost equally as likely to mention jobs and the economy as the top issue. However, men were more likely to mention the budget deficit (19%) while women were more likely to mention health care (11%) as the top issue.
• Among those who voted Liberal in 2015, 43% mentioned jobs and the economy as the top issue, 18% mentioned the budget deficit, while 12% mentioned Muskrat Falls.
• Muskrat Falls was a particularly important issue for past NDP voters. 36% ranked it as the top issue followed by jobs and the economy (20%) and taxes (11%).
• For PC voters, jobs and the economy topped the list (37%), followed by Muskrat Falls (13%), and the budget deficit (11%).
ECONOMIC PERCEPTIONS
• 78% of NL residents believe the economy in Newfoundland and Labrador is in poor or very poor condition while only 20% describing it positively (3% very good, 17% good). In comparison, in a recent national survey we conducted, 50% of Canadians described the economy as being good or very good while 50% described it as poor or very poor. So the mood in NL about the economy is decidedly worse than Canadians in other provinces.
• Perceptions about the current NL economy are consistent across the province (low of 17% good/very good in St. John’s/Avalon to 23% in east/central NL).
• Perceptions are also similar across party vote in the last provincial election. 77% of Liberal voters describe the economy as poor or very poor, like the 82% of PC voters and 83% of NDP voters who feel negatively about the economy.
• Not only do most feel the economy is in rough shape today, few (20%) believe the economy will get much better over the next 12 months. More think things will stay about the same as now while 35% think the economy will get worse over the next year.
THE UPSHOT
One year into his term, Premier Dwight Ball is facing some strong headwinds as he manages a weak economy and its impact on the province’s finances. Jobs and the economy remain the top issues for most residents but concerns about the budget deficit and the Muskrat Falls hydroelectric project have grown considerably since last year. Most think the economy is in a difficult position and few think things will improve over the next year suggesting that the mood is unlikely to improve unless people start to feel improvements in their own financial position or in the economic conditions where they live.
Most governments would have a difficult time governing when perceptions about the economy and direction of the province are as negative as we currently see them in Newfoundland and Labrador. But the Liberals and Premier Ball have the added hurdle of trying to lead when many in the province dislike the Premier personally and disapprove of his work thus far. The next election is still over three years away so there is time to mend the government’s reputation. Doing so will require a mix of honesty, openness, and patience on the part of both the public and Premier Ball.
METHODOLOGY
The hybrid online/telephone survey was conducted with 604 eligible voters living in Newfoundland and Labrador. 300 interviews were conducted with a random sample of residents by telephone. 304 interviews were conducted online with panelists recruited from Leger’s research panel. The survey was completed from October 20 to 27, 2016.
The margin of error for a probability-based random sample of 600 respondents using a probability sample is +/- 4.1%, 19 times out of 20.
The data was statistically weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched population of Newfoundland and Labrador. The tables within this report detail the weighted and unweighted counts for the sample. Note the small sample sizes when reviewing results in subgroups.
ABACUS DATA INC.
We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value-added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD.
On the eve of Dwight Ball and the NL Liberals’ one year election victory anniversary, Abacus Data and VOCM News asked residents of Newfoundland and Labrador how they feel about the direction of the province, their political leaders, and the economy. Over the next three days we will be releasing results of a survey of 604 NL residents by phone and online (300 by phone, 304 online).
THE HORSE RACE
• Across the province, 23% of eligible voters in NL would vote Liberal followed by the NDP at 22% and the PCs at 19%. 31% of respondents said they were undecided.
• If the election was held today, the results would be close with 36% voting Liberal, 34% voting NDP, and 29% voting PC. This represents a 21-point drop for the Liberals from the results of the 2015 provincial election, a 22-point increase for the NDP, and a marginal, 1-point drop for the Tories.
• Compared with the 2015 provincial election, only 38% of those who voted Liberal in 2015 say they would vote Liberal today. 18% would vote NDP, 10% would vote PC and 30% are undecided. The NDP and PC Party have kept more of its support from the previous election.
• Regionally, the NDP leads in St. John’s and on the Avalon Peninsula, the Tories and Liberals are tied in the eastern and central region of NL, while the Liberals lead in the western region of the island and in Labrador.
• NDP support is concentrated among those under 40 while the Liberals lead among those over 45.
LEADERSHIP FAVOURABILITY
• Residents of Newfoundland and Labrador are not overly positive about any of their political leaders. 53% have a negative impression of Premier Dwight Ball, only 16% view him favourably. Former premier and PC Leader Paul Davis, who recently announced he is stepping down as leader, is viewed positively by 21% and negatively by 32%. NDP Leader Earle McCurdy’s impression is more neutral with 19% having a positive impression and 22% having a negative impression. Positive impressions are down significantly for all three leaders since our last poll near the end of the 2015 provincial election.
DIRECTION OF THE PROVINCE AND APPROVAL OF PROVINCIAL GOVERNMENT
• Six in ten NL residents (60%) feel the province is heading off on the wrong track, a massive swing compared to a year ago when only 25% felt that way. Only 19% of NL residents today feel the province is headed in the right direction.
• The sour mood of NL residents about the province overall extends to the provincial government. 63% disapprove of the job performance of the provincial government compared with 22% who approve. 11% neither approve nor disapprove. Of note, 56% of those who voted Liberal in 2015 disapprove of the provincial government’s job performance, only 32% approve.
• The survey also asked respondents to rate the premier’s performance in several areas. Despite the challenges caused by the province’s finances, Premier Ball gets the highest marks for his performance managing the budget. Six in ten (62%) rate his performance as at least acceptable (62%).
• Respondents were split on his handling of education (48% acceptable or better) and health care (48% acceptable or better).
• Premier Ball was rated lowest when it comes to his handling of the economy (35% acceptable or better) or his level of openness and accessibility (42% acceptable or better).
WOULD THINGS BE BETTER IF THE PCs AND PAUL DAVIS WON IN NOVEMBER 2015?
• We asked respondents whether things would be better now, worse than they are now, or no different if the PC Party and Paul Davis had won the last provincial election. Most (53%) felt that things would be about the same as they are now had the PCs won the election while 29% think things would be better while 18% think things would be worse.
• Not surprisingly, those who voted PC were most likely to think things would be better while those who voted Liberal were most likely to think things would be worse. However, one in five (20%) of those who voted Liberal in 2015 said that things would be better had the PCs one, demonstrating some regret in their vote choice about a year ago.
WHICH PARTY WILL WIN THE ELECTION IN 2019?
• Although the next election is far off, more NL residents think that the PC Party will win the next election than do of the Liberals. 33% think the PC Party will win the next election compared to 23% who picked the Liberals and 9% who picked the NDP. 35% are unsure.
THE UPSHOT
A year is a long time in politics and much has changed since Dwight Ball and the Liberals were elected in a landslide in November 2015. Our first survey of Dwight Ball’s tenure finds a gloomy mood in Newfoundland and Labrador. Most feel the province is headed in the wrong direction, only one in five approve of the job performance of the provincial government, and two thirds feel the Premier has done a poor job managing the provincial economy. Support for the Liberals among committed voters is down 21-points since the 2015 provincial election.
Despite this difficult opinion environment for the governing Liberals, the party is still competitive with the opposition parties, statistically tied with the NDP and seven-points ahead of the PCs. Many voters are understandably undecided about how they would vote if an election was held today. Moreover, only a minority feel that the province would be better off had the PCs and Paul Davis been re-elected last November.
The fallout from the provincial budget continues and severely hurt the Premier’s personal numbers. Most NL residents have a negative impression of him while only 16% view him positively. One saving grace is that people are not overly positive about any of the alternatives, including the NDP’s Earle McCurdy, despite the NDP being only 2-points behind the Liberals in vote intention.
Despite the challenges the provincial government and Premier Ball face, most residents do recognize the effort the government is making to manage the province’s massive deficit. It’s telling that Premier Ball gets the highest grades for his handling of the budget. Residents are not enthusiastic about his performance, but most at least describe it as acceptable – some good news in what is a pretty bad poll for the government.
For the PC Party, the results are also sobering. Despite a rapid descent in public approval for the Ball government, PC support has remained static. Yes, more people think the PCs will win the next election but only 3 in 10 think the province would be better off had the PCs won the last election and the pool of accessible PC voters is unchanged since the election last year. Finding the right leader who can offer a compelling change narrative and turn the page from the previous PC government will be important if the PCs are going to make Dwight Ball a one-term premier.
The NDP has the most to celebrate in this numbers. They are statistically tied with the Liberals and their leader is the most popular, or perhaps, the least unpopular. But the NDP has been here before. Its support increased the last time the public soured on the Dunderdale government only to see that support erode after internal division and emergence of Dwight Ball as the primary alternative to the PCs. The challenge for the NDP remains positioning the party as a government in waiting as opposed to a place to park one’s support in between elections.
METHODOLOGY
The hybrid online/telephone survey was conducted with 604 eligible voters living in Newfoundland and Labrador. 300 interviews were conducted with a random sample of residents by telephone. 304 interviews were conducted online with panelists recruited from Leger’s research panel. The survey was completed from October 20 to 27, 2016.
The margin of error for a probability-based random sample of 600 respondents using a probability sample is +/- 4.1%, 19 times out of 20.
The data was statistically weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched population of Newfoundland and Labrador. The tables within this report detail the weighted and unweighted counts for the sample. Note the small sample sizes when reviewing results in subgroups.
ABACUS DATA INC.
We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD.
As the list of contenders for the Conservative Party leadership takes more shape, updated our polling data on who Canadians prefer, among the names that have been in consideration (our poll was taken just before Tony Clement dropped out). Here’s what we found:
• Kevin O’Leary garners 21% across Canada and 30% among Conservative voters. Mr. O’Leary has not yet made clear whether he will run.
• At the time he dropped out, Tony Clement was the preferred choice of 16% of Canadians and 19% of Conservative voters.
• Of the names we included in our poll, Maxime Bernier (14% nationally), Lisa Raitt (9%) and Michael Chong (6%) garner more support than the rest of the field. The other ten names we tested were all bunched together within 4 points from top to bottom.
• Kellie Leitch has probably won a larger share of coverage than any other candidate to date, however, she is the favourite of just 4% of Canadians, and 5% of those who voted Conservative last fall. Chris Alexander’s support levels are almost identical (4% nationally and among Conservative voters.
• Brad Trost is the least popular of the 14 names we tested, with 2% support nationally and 1% among Conservative voters.
THE UPSHOT
According to Bruce Anderson: “Our earlier poll showed that Kevin O’Leary was a leader in terms of familiarity, but also a somewhat polarizing figure among the general public. If he doesn’t run, the race looks at this point as though there would be a small group of front-runners, some with regionally important pockets of support. Max Bernier has established himself well to this point, with a message and positioning that is fairly consistent, and with a regional base that carries significant value.
Lisa Raitt, if she enters the race, would start with a more attentive and interested public, compared to many of the other candidates who are competing for a share of voice. But with numbers as close as this, and with Peter MacKay deciding to sit this contest out, the safest assumption is that virtually any of these candidates could gather momentum.
So far, though the sharper message of Kellie Leitch does not appear to have paid off in terms of galvanizing and attracting a sizeable segment of Conservative voters, although it may have done so among the membership itself.”
METHODOLOGY
Our survey was conducted online with 1,500 Canadians aged 18 and over from October 7 to 12, 2016. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians.
The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 1,500 is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
ABACUS DATA INC.
We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value-added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, Ph.D.
On the one-year anniversary of the election of the Trudeau government, Canadians continue to show little remorse about the change that their ballots brought about, and instead indicate that they would choose the Liberals again if an election were held tomorrow.
Our latest numbers show:
• Across the country, 45% would vote Liberal (5 points better than their outcome last October), 28% would vote Conservative (down 4), and 14% would vote NDP (down 6).
• In Ontario, where the Liberals won 80 of 121 seats, they claim 48% support, compared to 30% for the Conservatives and 15% for the NDP. The Liberal result is 3 points better than their result last year.
• In Quebec, where the Liberals won 40 of 78 seats, the Liberals enjoy 47% support, compared to 20% for the BQ. The Conservatives and the NDP are tied at 13%, an extraordinary decline for the NDP, which only last September was polling near 50% in the province. The Liberals are 11 points ahead of their result last October 19th.
• In BC, where the Liberals claimed 17 of 42 seats, they also lead with 47% support, compared to 25% for the Conservatives and 17% for the NDP. The Liberals are polling 12 points higher than their election day result.
• In Atlantic Canada, where the Liberals swept all 32 seats with 59% of the vote, they lead with 62% support, 48 points more than either the Conservatives (14%) or the NDP (14%).
THE UPSHOT
According to Bruce Anderson: “The two main opposition parties lack leaders at the moment, and that is something worth taking into account when looking at these numbers.
Still, people are able to evaluate the government and the performance of Mr. Trudeau, and these results speak to a general level of broad satisfaction with the direction that is being set. The Trudeau government has faced a number of tests, including a budget, federal/provincial pressures around energy and health care, the introduction of 25,000 Syrian refugees into Canada, a shift in our role in the fight against ISIS, to name just a few. So far, most voters have observed that Mr. Trudeau seems up to the job and his government is holding onto a pretty solid level of support, despite an economy which can hardly be described as a helping wind.”
According to David Coletto: “One year out from their win, the Liberals have not only kept most of their support from that election but have expanded it in most regions of the country.
For the opposition parties, these results are sobering but also instructive. If I’m the Conservatives, I’m asking myself how can the party better appeal to women and younger voters since the party trails the Liberals by 23 points among women and 25 points among those aged 45 and under.
If I’m the NDP, I’m wondering whether I focus on rebuilding support in Quebec (down to 14% support) or look to other regions with a longer history of supporting the NDP like BC.
These results are not predictive of what will happen three years from now, but do provide some insight into which voter groups Mr. Trudeau’s opponents will need to focus if they hope to defeat him in 2019.”
METHODOLOGY
Our survey was conducted online with 1,498 Canadians aged 18 and over from October 7 to 12, 2016. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians.
The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 1,498 is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
ABACUS DATA INC.
We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value-added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, Ph.D.
In our latest survey, in the wake of the federal announcement of a floor price on carbon, we explored questions around the federal government’s approach to energy and climate change. Here’s what we found:
• Roughly two out of three (63%) believe Mr. Trudeau is on the right track when it comes to his overall approach to reducing emissions and combat climate change, including two-thirds support in BC, Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada. In Alberta, 35% say the government is on the right track, as do 28% in Saskatchewan . (caution re small sample size)
• The government direction is supported by 81% of Liberal Party voters, 64% of NDP and 32% of Conservative voters.
NATIONAL CARBON TAX
Respondents were given a brief description of the federal approach to carbon taxation, and here is what we learned:
• 35% said they thought the federal approach was a good one, and another 34% said it was acceptable. Roughly one in three (31%) said it was a poor approach.
• Acceptance (good plus acceptable) of the carbon tax is the majority view in every part of Canada but the Prairies, including 72% in BC, 73% in Ontario, 80% in Quebec and 72% in Atlantic Canada. In Alberta, 63% think the federal approach is a bad idea, and in Saskatchewan, 68% have a negative reaction.
• Across partisan lines, 85% of Liberals, 75% of NDP supporters, and 36% of Conservative supporters say the federal tax approach is good or acceptable. Support is highest among younger people but is the majority view across all age groups.
BROADER ENERGY TRANSITION PLAN
We then asked how people would feel about a plan to “shift Canada’s energy use over the coming decades, including incentives to promote cleaner transportation and buildings, and pricing carbon to encourage a shift towards greater use of cleaner energy.”
• 86% support or can accept a plan along these lines, including majorities in every region of the country, including substantial majorities in the Prairies and across party lines.
BROADER ENERGY TRANSITION PLAN PLUS A PIPELINE
We then asked, “let’s imagine that while putting in place these measures to encourage a shift to renewable energy, the federal government also approved a new pipeline to get Canada’s oil and gas to new markets, would you strongly support, support, accept, oppose, or strongly oppose such a decision?”:
• Three out of four (76%) would support (41%) or accept (35%) this decision.
• Majorities in every region support or could accept this approach, including a striking 92% in Alberta and 83% in Saskatchewan, and the very large majority of Conservative voters (87%). A majority (62%) of NDP voters would go along with this decision.
A closer look at the interaction of different policy measures shows that:
• Among those who think the federal government is on the right track on energy and climate, 23% would shift oppose a policy mix that includes a pipeline.
• Among those who say the federal government is on the wrong track, 48% say they would become supportive of a policy mix that includes a pipeline.
• Among those think the national carbon price is a good idea, 23% say they would shift to oppose a policy mix that included a pipeline.
• Among those who think the national carbon price is a bad idea, 52% say they would shift to support a policy mix that includes a pipeline.
THE UPSHOT
According to Bruce Anderson:
“Few things are more politically charged in Canada these days than the mixture of policies the federal government may embrace to combat climate change and to support economic activity in the oil and gas sector.
So far, Ottawa is holding a relatively broad measure of support for its policy approach, including the introduction of a floor price for carbon emissions. However, voters in Alberta and Saskatchewan are clearly outside this consensus.
Going forward, the numbers suggest there is a path to creating more comprehensive national support, with a blend of carbon pricing, incentives to promote a shift in energy use, and adding pipeline capacity to get Canada’s oil to markets while a shift towards more renewable energy is underway.
While different elements of such a policy mix would likely attract criticism from different quarters, if the question is whether it is possible to carry a majority of support in every region of the country, taking into account competing interests and visions, the evidence is that this is in fact possible, in theory at any rate.”
METHODOLOGY
Our survey was conducted online with 1,500 Canadians aged 18 and over from October 7 to 12, 2016. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians.
The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 2,010 is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
ABACUS DATA INC.
We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value-added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, Ph.D.
On behalf of the Paramedic Association of Canada, Abacus conducted an extensive online nationwide study of Canadians’ views of healthcare and the role of paramedics. The sample size was 2,181 adult Canadians and the survey was conducted from September 9 to 12, 2016.
What issues in the healthcare system most concern Canadians?
Emergency room wait times and capacity, surgery wait times, and hospital overcrowding are issues in which a majority or close to a majority of Canadians consider a serious problem in the healthcare system. Access to a family doctor is also considered a serious problem by four in ten Canadians.
Comparatively, home care, geriatric health care services, prevention of illness and the emergency response time of paramedics are less likely to be considered serious problems in the system.
There was little regional variation in perceptions about the problems except for: • Quebecers were more likely to consider emergency room wait times (71%), hospital overcrowding (65%), and access to a family doctor (68%) a serious problem. • British Columbians were more likely to be concerned about hospital overcrowding (51% serious problem) and access to a family doctor (47% serious problem). • Atlantic Canadians were more likely to believe that surgery wait times (61%) and emergency room wait times and capacity (62%) were serious problems.
The survey also found that older Canadians are more likely to think the health care issues identified were serious problems in Canada. In particular, 66% of those aged 60 and over believed that surgery wait times were a major problem, 25 points higher than those aged 18 to 29.
2 in 3 Canadians believe that paramedics play a central role in the healthcare system.
Respondents were asked to classify whether a number of professions played a central role, an important role, or a supporting role in the healthcare system.
Overall, 80% of Canadians believed that doctors play a central role followed by registered nurses (73%) and paramedics (66%). In total 90% of Canadians believed that paramedics play either a central role in Canada’s healthcare system or an important role.
The views about paramedics are consistent across the country although older Canadians and those who have been treated by a paramedic were more likely to consider paramedics central to the healthcare system.
Paramedics are as trusted as doctors or nurses to make on-the-spot medical decisions.
When asked to what extent they trust doctors, nurses, and paramedics to make on-the-spot medical decisions about their personal health, six in ten (61%) Canadians said they had high trust in paramedics compared with 64% for nurses and 70% for doctors.
Once again, these views were strongly related to one’s age. Older Canadians were more likely to trust paramedics to make on-the-spot medical decisions than younger Canadians. There was no variation across region or gender.
80% of Canadians support the idea of Community Paramedicine.
Respondents were shown the following description of community paramedicine and asked whether they support or oppose the idea of community paramedicine:
Traditionally, paramedics are trained to respond to emergency 911 calls, treat patients who are ill and/or injured, and transport patients to emergency departments. However, not all patients require transportation to an emergency department. Many simply need a basic health assessment, minor treatment, and referral to an appropriate community, or other health care service.
Community Paramedicine is about engaging paramedics in non-traditional roles to assist in delivering health care to urgent and non-urgent, but not life threatening situations. By expanding the role of paramedics, and working collaboratively with other health care professionals and community agencies, paramedics can manage patients who do not require immediate treatment and transportation to an emergency department.
Under a Community Paramedicine model, paramedics will continue to respond to medical emergencies and provide non-urgent medical care within the community and at patients’ homes.
Overall, 80% of Canadians we surveyed either strongly support (39%) or somewhat support (41%) the idea of community paramedicine as presented in the survey. Only 3% are opposed to it and the remaining 16% said they neither support nor oppose it.
Support for the idea is consistent across the country and is particularly popular among women – 46% of whom strongly support the idea of community paramedicine.
9 in 10 Canadians think paramedics should be invited to participate in negotiations over a new national Health Accord.
Finally, respondents were asked whether a number of health professionals should be invited to participate in negotiations around a new health accord between the federal and provincial governments. Overall, a large majority of Canadians believe that doctors (92%), nurses (91%), and paramedics (90%) should be around the table.
The Upshot
Health care remains a top concern for many Canadians, especially at it relates to capacity and access issues in emergency rooms, hospitals, and access to a family doctor. Given these concerns, Canadians recognize and value the role that paramedics can play in improving access and outcomes for Canadian patients.
Paramedics in Canada are well regarded, trusted, and seen as central to the health care system. There is almost no resistance to the concept of community paramedicine and large numbers of Canadians enthusiastic support it, especially women who value the peace of mind knowing that their loved ones will be cared for if a medical emergency or situation arises.
Given the reputation of the process and the role Canadians see paramedics playing, it should be no surprise that the public thinks they should be part of the national discussion about the future of healthcare and be invited to be part of the negotiations around a new national health accord.
Methodology
The survey, commissioned by the Paramedic Association of Canada, was conducted online with 2,181 Canadians aged 18 and over from September 9 to 12, 2016. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples.
The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
Paramedic Association of Canada
The Paramedic Association of Canada is a voluntary professional organization of paramedicine practitioners in Canada. Its missions is to provide quality care for the public through leadership in the advancement of the profession of paramedicine. For more information, contact Pierre Poirier at pierre.poirier@paramedic.ca, or visit their website at http://www.paramedic.ca/
Abacus Data Inc.
We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value-added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, Ph.D. For more information, visit our website at http://www.abacusdata.ca/
In our latest survey of national opinion, we explored questions around using a price or tax on carbon to help combat the challenge of climate change. Here’s what we found:
• Few people generally ask for taxes of any sort, and so it was perhaps not surprising that only 25% across the country “favour” a carbon price or tax. What was more interesting to us is the fact that not very many oppose the idea (31%). The plurality say can accept the taxation of carbon emissions.
• Liberal and NDP supporters see this more or less the same way (77% to 79% support or accept), while 62% of Conservative voters are opposed to the idea. Younger people are more supportive, but the majority of those over 45 also say they support or can accept it.
• Majorities in every region of the country support or accept the idea, although Alberta is essentially equally divided when a margin of error is considered.
• A major reason why opposition to a carbon tax is modest lies in the fact that most people don’t think it will be harmful to the national economy or the economy of their province. The exception again is Alberta, where 54% anticipate carbon taxes will weaken the national economy and 60% say that will happen to their provincial economy.
• Across the country, 20% say carbon taxation will end up strengthening the economy, 26% weakening, and 49% it would have no real impact.
THE UPSHOT
Bruce Anderson: “For several years, the idea of a carbon tax has been a political football. Advocates say it is essential while critics have labelled it a job-killing tax on everything.
As the country prepares to move ahead with a national carbon pricing policy, it’s useful to look at the net effect of this political debate so far. Because people rarely avoid the opportunity to oppose a new tax, it’s hard not to notice that only 31% oppose this particular idea.
Some believe that taxation will be an important behavioural nudge on an issue that is important to them. But more of the acquiescence that it evident in this poll has to do with a lack of fear of the consequences: most simply don’t buy that a carbon price need wreak havoc on the economy.
There is a different calculation in Alberta, and among Conservative voters. However even within those two subgroups of the population, sizeable minorities are willing to accept or support the idea of using carbon pricing to encourage a shift in behaviour.
There will be challenging parts of this debate ahead for the government – including the price point, the relationship with the provinces, and any adjustments for energy-intense, trade-exposed industries – but our polling in overall terms suggests latitude for the federal government to move in this direction.”
METHODOLOGY
Our survey was conducted online with 2,010 Canadians aged 18 and over from August 22 to 25, 2016. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians.
The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 2,010 is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
ABACUS DATA INC.
We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value-added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, Ph.D.
As the Conservative and New Democratic parties are in the process of choosing new leaders, we asked Canadians about the qualities they would want to see in a political leader.
We gave people a list of 34 potential qualities and asked them to decide which ones were “must haves”, “nice to haves” or less important than that. What did we find?
The 8 most broadly considered “must haves” (45% or more said it was a must have):
• Understand different parts of the world • Think a lot about the future of the world • Think about what’s right for the next generation • Be open minded about different lifestyles • Care about the poor • Ask for help when you need it • Seek advice from smart people everywhere • Apologize when you make a mistake
Among the other interesting things in the results:
• 41% say speaking both official languages is a must have. That masks a large gap between Francophones (68%) and Anglophones (32%).
• Always being polite and thoughtful with others is more highly sought than someone who never backs down and always looks strong.
• Few people care greatly if a leader comes from either an accomplished or less affluent family, loves the outdoors or music, books, and the arts.
When we combine the things people say are “must haves” with “really like to have” here are some other points that stand out.
• Thinking about what’s right for the next generation and understanding different parts of the world are at the very top of the list. As a point of context, almost 80% say these are must or really like to have qualities, while only 44% say that about knowledge “about how to make a buck” or make a payroll.
• Almost as highly rated are seeking advice from smart people (76%), asking for help when you need it (75%), and apologizing for a mistake (74%). This suggests that people value humility and open-mindedness more than the idea of the perfectly formed, strong leader who never blinks or reconsiders an action or idea.
• The notion that leaders are expected to come from perfect, close-knit families is not of great importance to most Canadians. It ranked 30th of the list of 34 items.
Over the next few days, we’ll dig into this data to show how our criteria for leaders varies depending on gender, generation, political inclination.
THE UPSHOT
Bruce Anderson:“Political commentary for years has included a lot of conventional wisdom about what people like in leaders. Much of it has suggested that we prefer people from accomplished backgrounds, people who are self-possessed. Leaders with a plan, and great determination in the face of resistance. How many times has strong leadership been equated with never apologizing?
These results suggest a different and more nuanced reality. They reveal that we like people with open, curious minds. We want leaders who think about the bigger picture and the longer term. Leaders who seek out and want to hear good ideas from other people. We value politeness over manifestations of power – and we believe that saying you’re sorry when you should is no weakness, rather a virtue.”
METHODOLOGY
Our survey was conducted online with 2,010 Canadians aged 18 and over from August 22 to 25, 2016. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians.
The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 2,010 is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
Abacus Data Inc.
We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value-added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, Ph.D.
