Our team has been tracking Canadian perceptions and attitudes around the pandemic for more than two months. Last week we released new data on how the pandemic was impacting Canadian politics. Today, we turn our attention to Ontario politics.

In our most recent survey completed last weekend, we interviewed 597 Ontarians and asked them several questions about their views on the provincial government’s performance, on political leaders, and their vote intentions if an election was held at the time of the survey.

Here’s a snapshot of what we found:

FINDING #1: 60% of Ontarians approve of the job performance of the Ontario provincial government. 15% disapprove.

FINDING #2: Ontarians rate the government’s performance in most areas positively. But its performance responding to the pandemic, how it has communicated with people, and its handling of the economy get the most positive reviews.

FINDING #3: Premier Ford’s personal image has improved substantially over the past two months. Today, 46% have a positive view compared with 25% negative.

From the end of 2018, throughout 2019, and into early 2020, most Ontarians had a negative impression of Doug Ford with only about 1 in 5 having a positive impression. Since early March, the Premier’s positive ratings have doubled, from 23% to 46% while his negatives have dropped 36-points, from 61% to 25%.

FINDING #4: NDP leader Andrea Horwath has a net positive image while new Liberal leader Steven Del Duca is largely unknown.

FINDING #5: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s personal image is also quite positive in Ontario while Andrew Scheer is viewed negatively by twice as many Ontarians than view him positively.

FINDING #6: The Ontario government’s response to the pandemic is the greatest driver in the government’s overall approval rating.

When we run a regression analysis of the specific policy areas against the Ontario government’s overall approval rating, we find that one’s assessment of the provincial government’s response to the pandemic explains most of the variation in one’s impression of the provincial government’s performance.

In other words, at this moment, Ontarians are rating the government’s overall performance and their views of the Premier through the lens of the pandemic. Its performance in other areas, like education, the economy, climate change, or health care are not major approval drivers.

FINDING #7: Compared with December 2019, the number of accessible voters for the Ontario PC party has increased substantially. Today, 37% say they will definitely or probably vote PC in the next election while another 22% say they would consider voting PC.

Those saying they definitely won’t be voting PC in the next election is down 21-points since December, from 48% to 27%.

FINDING #8: Despite the generally favourable impression of both the provincial government and Premier Ford, the Ontario Liberals and PCs are statistically tied in vote intentions.

If an election were held at the time of this survey, the Del Duca led Liberals would get 38% followed by 36% for Ford’s PCs and 19% for Andrea Horwath’s NDP. Since May 2019, the Liberal vote share is up 11, the PCs are up 7, while the NDP is down 12. The Green vote share is also down by 6 points since last May.

The Liberals lead by a wide margin in Metro Toronto and are tied with the PCs in the Greater Toronto region, and Eastern Ontario. The PCs lead in Southwestern Ontario.

The PCs have an 18-point lead among those aged 60 and over and a 5-point lead among those aged 45 to 59. Among those aged 18 to 44, the Liberals lead the PCs by 20-points, with the PCs and NDP tied for second at around a quarter of the vote. The Liberals lead by 12 over the PCs among women while the PCs have an 8-point lead over the Liberals among men.

UPSHOT

In only two months, Doug Ford’s favourability rating increased by over 20 percentage points. 60% approve of the job performance of his government thanks to an overwhelmingly positive assessment of his government’s response to the pandemic (74% approve). In a matter of months, Ontarians went from really disliking their premier (61% negative) to almost half (46%) feeling quite good about him.

But several factors suggest this lift in his image could change quickly.

First, although evaluations of his government’s performance are generally positive in almost every area we tested, our advanced analysis indicates that Ontarians are evaluating the Premier and his government through a pandemic lens. It is by far the most important driver in predicting whether someone has a positive or negative view of the government or the premier.

Second, despite the government’s 60% approval rating, only 36% of decided respondents would actually vote PC if an election was held at the time of the survey. That suggests that the Premier and the PCs will need to do more than satisfy Ontarians on their handling of the pandemic. Premier Ford will need to also demonstrate that he is not the same guy that 60%+ of Ontarians had a negative view of in early March.

With a new Liberal leader who is largely undefined and unknown and a wilting NDP, the PCs are in a much better position to be re-elected than they were only a few months ago.

Today, 58% of Ontarians would consider voting PC, an increase of 19-percentage points since December 2019.

If nothing else, the pandemic and Premier Ford’s performance to date has caused many Ontarians to re-evaluate him and open their minds to voting for him in the future. And that’s a big change over a short period of time.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

Find out more about what we are doing to help clients respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 597 Ontarians aged 18 and over from May 19 to 22, 2020. A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 4.1%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data Bulletins are short analyses of public opinion data we collect. For more information or media interviews, contact David Coletto.

Our team has been tracking Canadian perceptions and attitudes around the pandemic for more than two months. As provinces start executing plans to re-open the economy, when group physical activity and organized sports will return remains somewhat unclear.

In our most recent survey, we asked Canadians their thoughts on the return of organized sports.

Here’s what we found:

1 in 4 Canadian adults regularly took part in an organized sport or group physical activity before the pandemic. Younger Canadians were much more likely to take part with 43% of those aged 18 to 29 and 32% of those aged 30-44 saying they played an organized sport or took part in a group physical activity before the pandemic.

Almost 1 in 2 Canadians have children who played organized sports or group physical activities. Soccer, swimming, hockey, basketball, baseball or softball, football, and tennis were the most reported sports played by children in households.

There is some hesitation to return to organized sports, but most will feel comfortable doing so within a few months. Among those who regularly played organized sports or took part in group physical activities, 62% say they will be comfortable playing again within a few months, 42% within a few weeks.

Almost all Canadians say organized sports and group physical activity will be important in helping society rebuild and recover from the pandemic. 90% think organized sport or group physical activities will be important for the recovery post-pandemic, 38% think they will be very important. Those who regularly played organized sports before the pandemic are much more likely to think it is very important – 54%.

2 in 3 Canadians think it is important to find ways for Canadians to play organized sports when distancing restrictions are lifted because of the impact they have on mental and physical health. In contrast, 37% think the risk is too great until there is a vaccine.

THE UPSHOT

Organized sports and group physical activity plays an important part in the lives of about 8.1 million Canadian adults, not to mention millions more children. As physical distancing restrictions are lifted, many feel that sport and physical activity will be an important part of healing. While some will be reluctant to take part right away, those who involved in organized sports or group physical activities will be looking for ways to get back to what they love as soon as possible.

Group physical activities help build social capital, keep minds and bodies healthy, and take minds off of the anxiety the pandemic has caused. Canadians think that getting organized sports and group physical activities running again soon will help society recovery and rebuild after the pandemic.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

Find out more about what we are doing to help clients respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 1,800 Canadian adults from May 14 to 18, 2020. A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.4%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

OTTAWA – A new poll conducted for Music Canada finds that many Canadians say it will take six months or more before they feel comfortable going to watch live music again, even after physical distancing restrictions are lifted.

For video interviews by Skype or Zoom or audio interviews, please contact David at 613-884-4730 or david@abacusdata.ca

At the end of April, Abacus Data conducted a national public opinion survey commissioned by Music Canada, the national association represents the country’s largest music labels, to explore how Canadians are feeling about the pandemic as it relates to music and live music in particular.

Here is what we found:

MUSIC IS HELPING CANADIANS GET THROUGH THE PANDEMIC.

During the pandemic, Canadians report they are consuming more music than usual and finding comfort during these difficult periods.

• 35% say they are listening to more music than before the pandemic started.
• 31% say they are watching more video content from musicians online than before.
• 31% say they are watching more music videos than before.
• 24% say they are watching more recorded live concerts than before.

Hunkered down in their homes, music has been both a source of discovery and relief for many Canadians. Almost eight in ten agree that listening to music is a way to relieve stress. Another 55% agree they have found a lot of new content online about music and musicians they love during the pandemic. 43% say they have discovered new artists during the pandemic.

MILLIONS OF CANADIANS HAVE HAD LIVE MUSIC EVENTS POSTPONED OR CANCELLED, AND FOR LIVE MUSIC LOVERS, IT’S MAKING THEM FEEL EVEN WORSE ABOUT THE PANDEMIC.

One in five Canadians (19%) report that a live music event they were planning to go to had been postponed while another 20% report a live music event had been cancelled because of the pandemic.

For the 26% of Canadians who are “live music lovers” (those who regularly attend live music concerts or events pre-pandemic), the impact of the pandemic on their plans has been especially significant. 39% have had live music events postponed and 43% have had them cancelled.

For these Canadians, live music is a big part of their lives. They crave the experience, the social aspect of the events, and the way live music makes them feel. 58% say that the cancellation of live music events has made them feel worse about the pandemic, 34-percentage points higher than average.

DESPITE WANTING TO GO, CANADIANS, EVEN THOSE WHO LOVE LIVE MUSIC, SAY THEY WILL BE RELUCTANT TO GO BACK TO LIVE MUSIC EVENTS BEFORE A VACCINE FOR COVID IS FOUND.

Even if they are permitted to go to live music events, many Canadians, including those who love live music the most, will be reluctant to return for some time.

We asked respondents how soon they will feel comfortable enough doing several activities, once physical distancing restrictions are lifted. In almost all cases, fewer than 40% said they would feel comfortable in a few months or less. For most, the time horizon was much longer with many saying they may never feel comfortable again.

For example, 43% said it would take six months or more before they would feel comfortable going to a music festival or a concert in a large venue. Another quarter said they may never feel comfortable going to those types of events again.

Even going to a bar or pub to listen to music would take some six months or more to feel comfortable to do again. A third of Canadians (33%) said they likely wouldn’t feel comfortable going to a pub or bar for live music for at least six months, about a quarter said they probably would never feel comfortable again.

Most striking, half of Canadians (50%) said they may never feel comfortable again going to a concert in the United States with another 32% saying to would take at least six months before they feel comfortable again.

Older Canadians expressed longer time horizons before they would feel comfortable again, as did women generally.

But even among Canadians who love live music the most and report going most often before the pandemic, many will be reluctant to return quickly to live music events if they are allowed.

Among “live music lovers”:

• 49% say it will take six months or more or they may never to feel comfortable going to a concert in a large venue.
• 48% feel the same way about going to a music festival.
• 68% say it will take six months or more or they may never feel comfortable again going to a concert in the United States.

Later in the survey, we asked respondents:

“If concert venues and local bars, reduced the number of people allowed into the venue to allow for more distancing, how likely are you to go to concert if a vaccine is not found for COVID-19?”

Overall, 31% said they would be certain not to go with another 28% saying they are much less likely or somewhat less likely to go (59% total). Only 4% say they are certain to go with 26% saying they were more likely to go or might consider going. Even among those most likely to attend live music events, 42% say they are certain not to go or less likely to go to a live music event, even if the number of people allowed into the venue is reduced to allow for distancing.

In short, even if they are allowed to return, many Canadians, including those who love live music the most and miss being able to, won’t feel comfortable attending until there is a vaccine or their risk of infection is substantially lower.

MANY CANADIANS ARE REPLACING A LIVE MUSIC EXPERIENCE WITH A DIGITIAL ONE.

While live music events are postponed and cancelled, many Canadians have replaced the live experience with a digital one.

Three in ten say they have watched a live music show on Facebook or another social media platform and most (70%) say they have been satisfied with the overall experience.

Despite being generally satisfied with the digital content, most (79%) admit that digital experiences are a good stand-in for live music, but cannot replace the real thing. This is especially true among “live music lovers” who are far more likely to have consumed a live music event online (47%, 17-points higher than average) but also overwhelmingly agree (84%) that digital content cannot replace the feeling of seeing live music.

UPSHOT

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused widespread worry, anxiety, and loneliness for millions of Canadians who are stuck at home and isolated from their loved ones and their usual activities.

During this period, music has been a source of comfort and discovery for many. Technology has enabled Canadians of all ages to find new artists, discover new songs and albums, and interact with their favourite artists in new ways. Millions have streamed live music content, watched more music videos, and learned about the artists they love.

But the pandemic has also taken away the joy that live music brings to so many Canadians. Millions report postponed or cancelled live music events. People who love attending live music events are using it as a barometer for how they feel about the pandemic. The inability to go to see their favourite artists in small and large venues alike has made the pandemic even more difficult to get through.

Despite a genuine desire to return to live music events, to experience them in small and big venues, many Canadians are hesitant and reluctant to return. About 40% say it will take six months or more before they will feel comfortable going to a concert at an arena or a music festival. A majority say they are unlikely to go to a live music event, even if distancing protocols are put in place and the number of people at the venue is reduced.

Since concerns about contracting the virus and a second spike in infections linger, even if restrictions on large gatherings are lifted, it would be wrong to assume that people will return to their normal behaviours. Just because people can do something, doesn’t mean they will. This suggests the impact of the pandemic on the live music sector will persist long after restrictions on large gatherings are lifted.

Finally, the survey captured the deep unease Canadians have about travelling to the United States. Many are ruling it out completing and for others, it may take months before they feel comfortable returning for live music events in the US. This will have important implications on tourism, travel, and the live music industry in the United States.

Access the questionnaire and results for the survey here.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

Find out more about what we are doing to help clients respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 2,500 Canadians aged 18 and over from April 24 to 30, 2020. A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.0%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Access the questionnaire and results for the survey here [add link]

Abacus Data Bulletins are short analyses of public opinion data we collect. For more information or media interviews, contact David Coletto.

Our team has been tracking Canadian perceptions and attitudes around the pandemic for almost two months. As provinces start executing plans to re-open the economy, one question many are asking is: will people re-enter the economy after it re-opens?

Some provinces have already announced plans to re-open some schools.

In our most recent survey, we asked 517 Canadian parents whether they are likely or not to send their kids back, if schools open in their areas.

Here’s what we found:

Overall, 18% say they are certain to send their kids back, 26% are likely to, 22% are unlikely to, and 13% say they are certain not to. 21% are unsure.

Parents living in Quebec and Ontario were the most likely to say they are unlikely to send their kids back to school.

And not surprisingly, there’s a relationship between one’s overall concern about the pandemic and their willingness to send their kids back. 47% of parents who say they are extremely or very worried about the pandemic say it’s unlikely they will let their kids return to school if schools open in their area, about 20 percentage points higher than those less worried about the pandemic.

Also noteworthy, parents of kids in high school are about as likely to feel comfortable sending their kids back to school as those with kids in elementary school only. And parents in households that make less than $50,000 per year are just as likely to feel uncomfortable about sending their kids back than those in high-income households.

THE UPSHOT

We are entering a new phase of the pandemic. The reset. The emergence. Will Canadians stick their toe in or dive in?

But just because the economy is re-opening doesn’t mean people will feel comfortable in it.

Here s another case and point: Less than half of Canadian parents say they are certain or likely to send their kids back to school if schools in their area open.

As long as people feel there’s a chance they might get COVID-19, that there’s a chance for a second spike in infections, and there’s a risk to their health or that of their loved ones, expect caution and a slower return to normal.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

Find out more about what we are doing to help clients respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 517 Canadian parents of elementary or secondary aged children from May 1 to 6, 2020. A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 4.4%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data Bulletins are short analyses of public opinion data we collect. For more information or media interviews, contact David Coletto.

Our team has been tracking Canadian perceptions and attitudes around the pandemic for almost two months. As provinces start executing plans to re-open the economy, one question many are asking is: will people re-enter the economy after it re-opens?

But just because the economy is “re-open”, doesn’t mean people will feel comfortable doing the things they used to, including shopping, travelling, and working.

At the end of April, we found that 83% of Canadians wanted policymakers to go slow and err on the side of caution when making plans to re-open the economy and that concern about getting the virus was still a primary driver for overall worry about the pandemic. While people are anxious about the economic impact of the pandemic, their personal health and safety remain paramount to the decisions they will make.

Given this, in our most recent survey, I wanted to better understand what it might take, if anything, to help people feel comfortable returning to some previous behaviours. We explored several scenarios, but I’m sharing four today: shopping in a mall, working in an office, taking public transit, and going to a sit-down restaurant.

SHOPPING IN A MALL

Malls, like other businesses that require “mass” traffic and volume, will face big challenges responding in a post-COVID world. For up to 8 weeks, the once safe and familiar shopping malls and centres across the country have been closed.

As malls re-open, what should they do to make consumers come back?

7% of those currently employed say they are comfortable enough all ready to go back to a mall.

But 1 in 4(26%) say they won’t be comfortable shopping at a mall until there’s a vaccine.

For the remaining 66% who have some conditions, 72% want surfaces to be cleaned regularly, 73% want there to be enough room to distance themselves from others, while 57% want to see a reduced number of people allowed into a mall. 43% want to see mandatory facemasks.

WORKING IN AN OFFICE

Within a very short period of time, millions of Canadians transitioned from working in an office to working from home. In one survey we did, 20% of Canadians (1 in 5) said they were now working from home.

As the economy re-opens and employers think about how to re-open their office, what do employees want?

12% of those currently employed say they are comfortable enough all ready to go back to an office.

But almost 1 in 5 (17%) say they won’t be comfortable going back to an office until there’s a vaccine.

For the remaining 71% who have some conditions, 66% want surfaces to be cleaned regularly, 60% want there to be enough room to distance themselves from others, while 47% want to see a reduced number of people allowed into the office. 37% want to see mandatory facemasks.

TAKING PUBLIC TRANSIT

Use of public transit across the country has crashed as people stopped working, worked from home, or felt uncomfortable taking public transit.

As the economy re-opens and people start heading back to work, what will get regular transit users back on buses, streetcars, and subways?

7% of regular transit users say they are comfortable already taking public transit.

But almost 1 in 4 (24%) say they won’t be comfortable until there’s a vaccine.

For the remaining 69% who have some conditions, 68% want surfaces to be cleaned regularly, 63% want there to be enough room to distance themselves from others, while 62% want to see maximum capacity reduced. 51% want to see mandatory facemasks.

GOING TO A RESTAURANT

As restaurants closed their dining rooms during the pandemic, millions of foodies across Canada (35% of Canadians identify as foodies), anxiously waited to get back into some of their favourite restaurants.

As the economy re-opens and people start thinking about going to their favourite food spots, what will make them feel comfortable?

7% of consumers say they are comfortable already going to a sit-down restaurant.

But 3 in 10 (30%) say they won’t be comfortable until there’s a vaccine.

For the remaining 63% who have some conditions, 76% want surfaces to be cleaned regularly, 71% want there to be enough room to distance themselves from others, while 66% want to see maximum capacity reduced. Only 21% want to see mandatory facemasks, although that will be hard when trying to eat.

THE UPSHOT

We are entering a new phase of the pandemic. The reset. The emergence. Will consumers stick their toe in or dive in?

But just because the economy is re-opening doesn’t mean people will feel comfortable in it. Businesses will need to reassure wary customers that they are following best practices and safety protocols. Organizational trust and reputations will be more important than ever.

Some will only feel comfortable returning when a vaccine is available. For others, it will require decreased capacity, vigilant cleaning regimes, and in some cases, mandatory facemasks.

Consumers and workers want to get out of their homes. For eight weeks, they have all become accustomed to the safety and familiarity of their homes. Stepping out in the unknown requires confidence, trust, and new procedures to make them feel secure.

Research can help confirm or reject assumptions and keep the customer/employee voice in your decision making. As we say at Abacus, good decisions require good data.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

Find out more about what we are doing to help clients respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 1,100 Canadians aged 18 and over from May 1 to 5, 2020. A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data Bulletins are short analyses of public opinion data we collect. For more information or media interviews, contact David Coletto.

Our team has been tracking Canadian perceptions and attitudes around the pandemic for over a month now, and data suggest we have entered a new phase of the crisis, at least when it comes to public perceptions.

While many Canadians are still very concerned about the crisis, our analysis suggests that what is driving concern is shifting.

The top drivers for concern about COVID-19 continue to the fear of contracting the virus both personally and among family members. These two factors have had the most significant impact on predicting one’s level of concern from the first wave of our research.

But other factors have shifted.

In the early stages of the pandemic, concern was much more focused on whether our health system could manage the coming wave of patients and whether there would be enough protective equipment for frontline workers. Today, those factors no longer contribute much to what is driving concerns.

Instead, we see economic anxiety as a factor rising. While still well behind concerns about contracting the virus, perceptions about the long-term economic impacts now outpace worries about the health system as main drivers.

This has important implications for policymakers and businesses. First, people won’t be ready to accept big moves to re-open the economy until they feel it is safe to do so. Second, even if people can go shopping, to malls, or restaurants, they may not venture out if they feel there’s a risk that they, or someone they care about, could contract the virus.

In our most recent survey (completed April 24 with 2,600 Canadian adults), we found that 83% of Canadians want policymakers to go slow and err on the side of caution when moving towards re-opening the economy rather than move to re-open it quickly.

These opinions could change as the perceptions about the scale of economic deterioration grow, but given that about 70% of Canadians believe we will experience either a prolonged recession or a depression, suggests those concerns still factor into their views on re-opening the economy.

In short, if public opinion is guiding policy decisions in any way, don’t expect to see governments move quickly to re-open the economy until the public feels more comfortable about their safety.

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 2,481 Canadians aged 18 and over from April 19 to 24, 2020. A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.