In our final survey of the year, we asked Canadians to give us their impressions of a wide range of people including 14 current federal Cabinet Ministers (we intend to gather impressions of other Ministers in an upcoming survey). Here are the highlights:
• As expected, many of the ministers are not household names for a significant proportion of voters. Between a third and a half of those surveyed were unable to offer an opinion about the job being done by the ministers tested.
• The amount of negative opinion about any of the ministers tested is quite limited, ranging from 11% to 21%. Given that most respondents didn’t vote Liberal, this suggests the Cabinet is generally not, at this point anyway, a focal point of partisan tension.
• Of the 14 tested, the ministers with the highest profile (fewest respondents unable to offer an opinion) included three rookies and two political veterans: Defense Minister Harjit Sajjan, Environment and Climate Change Minister Catherine McKenna, Health Minister Jane Philpott, Foreign Affairs Minister Stephane Dion, and Transport Minister Marc Garneau.
• For all ministers tested, more people offered good or acceptable ratings than offered negative assessments. The largest proportion of “good job” ratings went to Harjit Sajjan, Catherine McKenna, Marc Garneau, Stephane Dion, and Bill Morneau. The smallest positive ratings were for Maryam Monsef, who is also the least familiar to our sample.
• The ministers with the highest negatives were Bill Morneau, Jane Philpott, and Catherine McKenna. The ministers with the lowest negatives were Scott Brison, Navdeep Bains, Jody Wilson-Raybould, and Ralph Goodale.
• Few Liberal voters give poor assessments to any of the ministers. The performance of Ministers Sajan, Goodale, and Morneau are more likely to be rated positively. Only Ministers Philpott and Monsef get negative ratings in double digits.
• Among Conservative voters, Ministers Morneau and McKenna draw the largest number of negative assessments while Ministers Goodale, Bains, and Brison trigger few negative reactions.
• Among NDP voters, relatively few are unhappy with the Ministers tested. Ministers Philpott and Morneau draw the most criticism, disappointing 27% of NDP voters. Opinion about Minister McKenna is somewhat polarized – she tops the list in terms of positive ratings, but ranks third in terms of drawing criticism among NDP voters.
UPSHOT
According to Bruce Anderson:
“After just a year in office, it would be surprising if more of these ministers were better known, especially in an era when many people pay limited attention to national politics.
The results suggest that, consistent with the fact that the large majority give the PM good or acceptable marks for his cabinet selections (80%) most people are not finding much to fault in the performance of the cabinet.
Those handling some of the trickiest files (e.g. Finance, Health and Environment) are seeing slightly more polarized reactions, but this is, to this point anyway, a fairly mild version of polarization.
The fact that only half of Conservative voters give a bad rating to the Finance Minister illustrates this point.
As well, Resources Minister Jim Carr, who handled the pipeline file that could have sparked strong negative views on the left, finds only 23% of NDP voters giving him a negative rating.
The results for Democratic Reform Minister Monsef indicate some disappointment in her approach. But perhaps the more notable point is that while she has been the focus of a lot of Parliamentary and media criticism personally over the year (including about where she was born), half have not even been aware of Ms. Monsef so far.”
METHODOLOGY
Our survey was conducted online with 1,848 Canadians aged 18 and over from December 12 to 14, 2016. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians.
The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 1,848 is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
ABACUS DATA INC.
We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value-added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, Ph.D.
In our final survey of the year, we asked Canadians to give us their impressions of a wide range of people who are or were involved in Canadian politics, from Prime Ministers, to Premiers and some of the leading names in the Conservative Party. Here are the highlights of what we found:
PRIME MINISTERS
• Of the five prime ministers (Mulroney, Chretien, Trudeau Sr., Harper, Trudeau Jr.) we polled on, Justin Trudeau enjoys, by a wide margin, the most positive set of impressions, followed by his father. Stephen Harper encounters the highest negatives.
• Mr. Harper’s image (28% positive, 52% negative) is virtually the mirror opposite of his successor, Justin Trudeau (52% positive, 29% negative).
• All five of the prime ministers we measured had very similar levels of negative opinion (24%-29%), with the exception of Mr. Harper (52%).
PROVINCIAL PREMIERS
• Of the five provincial premiers we polled on (Ontario, Quebec, BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan) Kathleen Wynne is the best known and has the highest negatives, on a national basis.
• Positive feeling about the premiers ranges from just 9% to 14%, and negative opinion ranges from 10% to 34%. Roughly half of those polled had no opinion about four of the five tested.
• Within their provinces, only Brad Wall enjoys more positive (57%-26%) than negative opinion. The worst results are for Premier Wynne (11% positive, 67% negative)
Because the premiers and the Prime Minister are meeting on different topics lately, it may be useful to look at the standing of the Prime Minister compared to a premier within each respective province.
In Ontario, Mr. Trudeau is 39-points more popular than Ms. Wynne. In BC, Mr. Trudeau is 32-points more popular than Ms. Clark. In Quebec, Mr. Trudeau is 23-points more popular than Mr. Couillard. In Alberta, Mr. Trudeau is 13-points more popular than Ms. Notley. In Saskatchewan, Mr. Wall is 21-points more popular than Mr. Trudeau.
CONSERVATIVE LEADERSHIP FIGURES
• Of the seven leading Conservatives that we polled on, Rona Ambrose and Kevin O’Leary top the list in terms of being known and well thought of. In terms of popularity, both trail Justin Trudeau by very wide margins.
• Andrew Scheer is the least well known, with 71% saying they have no opinion about him, and another 18% saying their opinion is neutral.
• Kevin O’Leary’s negatives are higher than those of Maxime Bernier, Kellie Leitch, Lisa Raitt, Michael Chong and Andrew Scheer.
• Across the country, 6% have a positive view of Kellie Leitch, while 17% have a negative opinion. This is the weakest positive/negative balance of any of the candidates we tested.
• Among Conservatives, 58% have a positive view of Rona Ambrose, followed by 35% for Kevin O’Leary, Lisa Raitt (19%), and Max Bernier (17%).
• Among Conservatives, only one of the names tested finds more negative than positive views: Kellie Leitch (10% positive, 15% negative).
• Among winnable Conservative voters (those who don’t currently support the CPC but are open to voting for them), Justin Trudeau is far more popular than any of the leading Conservative figures we tested. 55% of winnable Conservative voters have a positive impression of the Prime Minister compared to 21% who have a negative impression.
• Rona Ambrose and Kevin O’Leary are better known than the some of the current CPC leadership candidates we tested but O’Leary appears to have about as much potential to repel as attract support from this critical audience. Among winnable Conservative voters, only one of the names tested is clearly a net negative at this point: Kellie Leitch (7% positive, 12% negative).
Below are charts with all the political figures we tested in order from most positive and in order of most negative.
UPSHOT
According to Bruce Anderson:
“For years it’s been fashionable in the media to speculate that voters hate politicians – but the truth is less dramatic. Few politicians are loved, but few are truly disliked by large numbers of people. Within that general context, the current popularity of Justin Trudeau does stand out, as does the level of residual negative feeling towards Stephen Harper, and in Ontario towards Kathleen Wynne.
The current standing of Brian Mulroney proves that time erodes some of the antagonism that can build up towards incumbents – his numbers when he left office were quite a bit worse than they are today.
Among the Conservative names tested the two most disruptive voices Kevin O’Leary and Kellie Leitch land differently. O’Leary’s fame and blunt talk can pull some voters and repel others. So far, the numbers we see for Kellie Leitch suggest very limited pull – and considerably more potential to repel accessible Conservative voters.“
According to David Coletto:
“Justin Trudeau is the most popular politician in the country right now. Half of Canadians have a positive impression of him, almost double that of the next current political figure that we tested (Tom Mulcair at 28%). Nationally, he is well ahead of any provincial premier, party leader, or potential party leader.
Even at the provincial level, Mr. Trudeau is far more popular than all but one provincial premier we tested – Brad Wall in Saskatchewan. Most premiers are facing a First Minister across the table who is more popular than they are in their own province, a challenge in terms of negotiating leverage.
For the Conservative Party, the data indicates that all of the current leadership candidates are unknown to most Canadians. Expect for Maxime Bernie and Kellie Leitch, who are more defined to Canadians, others like Lisa Raitt, Michael Chong, and Andrew Scheer are very much blank slates. Even among those who have heard of them, there’s little definition either positive or negative.
Kevin O’Leary looms large as the one potential candidate who has high name recognition and relatively positive impressions. While more Canadians have a negative rather than positive impressions of Mr. O’Leary, he is particularly well known and liked among those who voted Conservative. Perhaps indicative of his potential appeal of Conservative members.
In the end, whoever ends up winning the Conservative leadership, they will be up against a very popular Prime Minister, who right now, is quite appealing to the very voters the Conservatives need to convert – those open to voting Conservative but who don’t support the party now.”
METHODOLOGY
Our survey was conducted online with 1,848 Canadians aged 18 and over from December 12 to 14, 2016. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians.
The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 1,848 is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
ABACUS DATA INC.
We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value-added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, Ph.D.
As 2016 winds down, approval of the performance of the Trudeau government sagged a bit to 50%, in line with the numbers achieved at this point last year, but down from the levels seen earlier in the year. 32% disapprove of how the government is doing.
The sliding approval rating is largely attributable to opinion shifts in Ontario and Alberta, and among Conservative voters. Liberal and NDP voters remain about as satisfied as they have been with the performance of Mr. Trudeau’s government. Quebec and BC show considerably less fluctuation.
When asked to rate the performance of Prime Minister Trudeau on a range of policy files, the results show:
• All 8 items that we track back to January show some deterioration in approval levels.
• The worst rated item (handling taxpayers money) still found a majority (62%) saying that they find the performance of the government “acceptable” or better.
• On 6 of the 10 items measured more than 3 in 4 voters said the Prime Minister was doing an acceptable or better job.
• The top-rated items were for Mr. Trudeau’s openness and acceptability, his cabinet choices, his appointments to the Senate, the way he has represented Canada internationally, the way he works with the provinces and his personal values.
• Two out of three (68%) deem acceptable or better the PM’s approach to energy and pipelines and almost 3 out of 4 (73%) say the same thing about the government’s approach to climate change and greenhouse gases.
Some regional differences worth nothing:
• Albertans are 19 points more likely than average to give Ottawa poor marks on climate change and greenhouse gases.
• Albertans are 15 points more likely than average to give Ottawa poor marks on energy and pipelines.
• On handling the economy, at least six in ten give Trudeau passing marks in every part of the country except for Alberta (44%) and Saskatchewan (51%).
Of the people who disapprove of the Trudeau government at year end, here’s what else we know:
• 60% voted Conservative in 2015, 15% voted NDP, and 9% voted Liberal.
• They are 7-points more likely to be 60 or older, and 7 points more likely to have a high school or lower education.
• They are more concentrated in Alberta (15% vs 10% of the population) and Ontario (42% vs 38%).
• Of those living in Ontario, 96% have a negative impression of Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne, 29-points higher than all Ontarians we surveyed.
• 53% have a positive impression of Stephen Harper, 26-points higher than average.
• 31% have a positive impression of Kevin O’Leary and 9% have a positive impression of Kellie Leitch (56% did not know enough about her to have an opinion).
When it comes to their reaction to various decisions or events related to the Trudeau government:
• Trans Mountain approval – 25% say the decision made them feel better about Trudeau government, 18% say it made them feel worse.
• They were 22 points more upset with the Northern Gateway pipeline rejection – 42% said that decision made them feel worse about the government.
• They are 29 points more upset with Liberal fundraising – 56% say it made them feel worse about the government.
• They are 29 points more upset with Mr. Trudeau’s statement on Castro’s death – 59% say it made them feel worse about the government. 29-points higher than average.
• They were 17 points more upset with the Mydemocracy.ca online consultation – 31% say it made them feel worse about the government
“An in-depth examination of what’s underneath the surface of these trends makes it clear that the headwinds experienced by the Trudeau government are mostly linked to unhappiness on the right side of the spectrum, in Alberta and in Ontario. Kathleen Wynne is a point of friction for swing voters in Ontario, and her current standing in the public opinion appears to be affecting the Liberal brand at a national level.
In Alberta, Mr. Trudeau’s standing is affected by an economy still reeling from oil price declines. His climate change policy mix has hardened the view of Alberta conservatives towards his government, something only partly mitigated by his approval of 2 of 3 pipeline proposals.
While political conditions at the end of the fall are not as favourable for the government as they were earlier in the year, they remain relatively robust. In terms of the dynamics that carry the greatest potential political consequences, continued good results in Quebec and BC will be welcome news for the government, while the political fortunes of Premier Wynne will be a factor to watch closely. “
“Canadians remain quite satisfied with the performance of the federal government generally and the Prime Minister specifically. Although assessments of its performance have weakened, those who disapprove are disproportionately Conservative voters living in Alberta and Conservative-leaning Ontarians who are very displeased with Kathleen Wynne and the Ontario Liberal government.
What we see then is a trend towards polarization by ideology. Those on the left and centre of the political spectrum still hold the Trudeau government in high regard. Over 80% of those who voted for Mr. Trudeau and the Liberals and most NDP voters approve of the government’s job performance.
Those on the right, who voted Conservative in 2015, have become consolidated in opposition to the government. Our earlier survey showed that they were most likely to react negatively to news about Liberal fundraising and the PM’s statement on Castro’s death.
But as long as the government keeps centrist and progressive voters happy, it will continue to command strong approval numbers as we have seen throughout its first year in office.”
METHODOLOGY
Our survey was conducted online with 1,848 Canadians aged 18 and over from December 12 to 14, 2016. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians.
The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 1,848 is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
ABACUS DATA INC.
We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value-added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, Ph.D.
This release was prepared by Clean Energy Canada. Details and additional information on the study can also be found here.
Survey also shows most Canadians support a transition from fossil fuel reliance as quickly as possible, including half in Alberta
New public opinion research found that roughly 20 million Canadian adults (69 per cent) heard something about the recent First Ministers’ Meeting on climate—including 9 million who heard either a lot or a fair bit about it. Among those who were aware of the meeting, which resulted in the adoption of a new national plan to tackle climate change and spur clean energy, reactions to the outcome were broadly positive, with little evidence of anxiety. For example:
People were more likely to have a positive than a negative reaction to the emissions reduction plan agreed to by the majority of the premiers, by a margin of two to one.
By a similar margin, people were more likely to approve than disapprove of how the prime minister handled his responsibilities.
While critics of climate policies often cite the potential for economic risk, that argument resonates with only 29 per cent of those surveyed. In comparison, 42 per cent think the measures in the national climate plan will make Canada’s economy stronger over time.
These results come from a survey of 1,848 Canadians conducted December 12 to 14, 2016, by Abacus Data at the request of Clean Energy Canada, measuring Canadians’ views of climate and clean energy policy issues, including the new Pan-Canadian Framework on Clean Growth and Climate Change.
Support for clean energy, despite Trump agenda
Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall did not agree to the new climate framework, and said the likely direction of U.S. climate and energy policy under president-elect Donald Trump means we need to be very cautious about adopting climate policies in Canada.
However, only 17 per cent of Canadians think Canada should stick with fossil fuels for the long term in light of Mr. Trump’s energy agenda. Many more (49 per cent) said Mr. Trump’s pro-fossil fuel stance made them more inclined to want Canada shift towards cleaner energy.
Support for a transition away from fossil fuels
The survey found that 70 per cent of Canadians want the country to “shift its energy use as quickly as possible to cleaner, lower-carbon sources of energy and away from fossil fuels.” Just 30 per cent said they felt it was “better for Canada to stick with mostly fossil fuel energy for a long time to come.”
In every region but Alberta, a majority favours a transition from fossil fuels. In Alberta, opinion is evenly divided. The overwhelming majority (82 per cent) of Canadians under 35 favour a shift as quickly as possible.
2017 federal budget
To deliver on the new national climate plan, the next federal budget will need to include funding for initiatives to reduce carbon pollution. Our survey shows that a large majority of Canadians support or would accept allocating funding in the 2017 federal budget to a range of clean energy priorities, including:
Incentives to help people make their homes more energy efficient
Building power lines between provinces to make renewable electricity more available
Installing electric vehicle charging stations near highways, cities and towns, and
Offering incentives to people who buy electric vehicles.
Support for these potential budget measures cross all regions of the country, age groups, and partisan supporters.
“The national climate plan negotiations were tense at times, but Canadians are largely happy with the results. Most Canadians believe that we can build a stronger economy by taking action to cut carbon pollution—and they see it as one of the prime minister’s jobs to deliver that clean growth by investing in clean energy.”
— Clare Demerse, Federal Policy Advisor, Clean Energy Canada
“Canadians support a shift in our energy use from fossil fuels to cleaner energy as quickly as possible. And the election of Donald Trump in the U.S. hasn’t dented that support—if anything, this survey suggests that the new U.S. leader’s position actually makes Canadians more inclined to support clean energy here at home.”
— Merran Smith, Executive Director, Clean Energy Canada
“Canadians broadly believe in shifting towards cleaner sources of energy, because they are convinced doing so will benefit the planet, and are unconvinced by the argument that such a transition would gravely damage the economy.
“Assembling a workable public consensus on energy and climate change is the most challenging agenda item in Canadian politics today. These numbers reveal that while no government could please everyone, especially where economic stakes differ and emotions run high, the Trudeau government has laid out a path towards a lower-carbon economy that has alienated few and found acceptance by a large majority.”
Our latest nationwide public opinion survey explored a wide variety of topics. Our first release describes the current state of federal politics, including reactions to a variety of events and decisions.
Here’s what we see:
Party support has seen some softening in recent weeks, but remains at levels roughly equal to the result on election day just over a year ago. The number of people who would consider voting Liberal today is 59%, off the highs of late summer, but still substantially ahead of their political rivals (NDP at 47%, CPC at 46%).
Current voting intentions show 44% would vote Liberal, 30% CPC, and 16% NDP, reflecting a 5-point increase in CPC support from November. Compared to last election day, the Liberals are up 4 points, the Conservatives down 2, and the NDP down 4.
In the provinces with the largest number of seats, the Liberals continue to lead by substantial, but not as robust margins, compared to November. In Ontario, the Liberals would win the support of 47%, the Conservatives 35% and the NDP just 13%. In Quebec, the Liberals find support from 46%, the NDP 21%, and the Conservatives 14%, with the BQ at 13%. In BC, Liberal support is at 42%, down from the 46% we measured in November, while Conservative support is up from 21% to 25%, and the NDP is at 21%, essentially unchanged from November, but off the lows measured in the summer.
Compared to the Election Day result last year, the Liberals are in a roughly equivalent place in Ontario and BC, and considerably stronger in Quebec.
In Alberta, the Liberals (29%) trail the Conservatives (56%), with the NDP at 7%, this is unchanged from our last wave. In Saskatchewan, the Conservatives have 51% followed by the Liberals at 28% and the NDP at 15%. In Manitoba, the Liberals (40%) and the Conservatives (37%) are neck and neck. Across Atlantic Canada, the Liberals have 55% support, well ahead of the NDP at 19% and the Conservatives at 18%, again unchanged from November.
The Liberals advantage continues to be based on dominating the NDP (56% to 21%) among self described “left of centre” voters and being more than 20 points ahead of both other parties among voters who say they are on the centre of the spectrum. The Conservatives enjoy a dominant two thirds support among those who consider themselves to be “right of centre” with the Liberals winning 25% of right of centre voters.
REACTION TO EVENTS
We explored reaction to a series of 8 events in the last several weeks of this Parliamentary sitting, from the mydemocracy.ca questionnaire, to the Prime Minister’s reaction to the death of Fidel Castro, and the decisions on three pipelines. Here’s what we found:
For all 8 items tested half or more said they either that they hadn’t heard of these topics or that they had no impact on their views of the government.
• Fundraising by the Liberal Party and the PM has been a topic of considerable coverage and political skirmishing in recent weeks. 31% say they haven’t heard about this, and another 32% say it has had no impact on their views, 27% said it made them feel worse about the Trudeau government, 9% better.
• The Prime Minister’s reaction to the death of Fidel Castro had an impact on about half of Canadians, by a margin of 2:1 people seemed disappointed in his reaction.
• The government substantially positive reviews for the decision to put Viola Desmond on a banknote: 37% said it made them feel better about the government, 6% worse.
• 3 out of 4 people had no awareness of or reaction to the government’s reaction to the Electoral Reform committee report and the mydemocracy.ca online consultation.
• While the online consultation attracted some criticism, the impact on public opinion was fairly muted: 14% said the mydemocracy.ca initiative made them feel better about the government, 14% worse.
The government reaction to the committee report produced more negative reactions, suggesting disappointment in the tone and substance, but still only 18% said this choice made them feel worse about the government.
PIPELINE DECISIONS IN DEPTH
All three pipeline decisions were slight net positives, in terms of the public reaction, on a national basis.
In the case of the rejection of Northern Gateway, 25% said it made them feel better about the Trudeau government, 20% worse.
For the Kinder Morgan and Enbridge Line 3 approvals, 25% said these project approvals made them feel better, 18% worse about the government.
In BRITISH COLUMBIA, 39% said the approval of Trans Mountain made them feel worse about the Trudeau government compared to 25% who said it made them feel better. 36% either didn’t hear about the decision or said it made no impact. Rejection of the Northern Gateway pipeline created an opposite reaction, with 37% saying it improved their view of the government while 21% said it made them feel worse about it.
In ALBERTA, half said the government’s decision to approve the Line 3 and Trans Mountain made them feel better about the Trudeau government while only 5% and 7% said it made them feel worse. 46% said the rejection of Northern Gateway made them feel worse compared with 13% who said it made them feel better.
In QUEBEC, where support for pipelines generally has been lower than in other parts of the country, two thirds said they hadn’t heard of the government’s decisions or said the decisions had no impact on their view of the government. One in four Quebecers said the decision to reject Northern Gateway made them feel better while 10% said it made them feel worse about the Trudeau government.
Among 2015 Liberal voters, 16% said the decision to approve Trans Mountain made them feel worse about the government while 27% said it made them feel better. The majority hadn’t heard of the decision or said it made no difference.
Among Conservative voters, 41% said the decision made them feel better about the government while 11% said it made them feel worse.
Among NDP voters 35% said the Trans Mountain approval made them feel worse while 20% said it made them feel better about the Trudeau government.
On the Northern Gateway decision, the pattern is reversed. NDP voters were more likely to say the decision made them feel better than worse (37% better vs. 10% worse) while Conservative voters were more likely to react negatively (48% worse vs. 12% better). Liberal voters reacted favourably with 35% saying they feel better about the government after its Northern Gateway decision while 9% feel worse about the government.
To assess the political implications of these choices and events, it’s useful to remove the impact of harder core partisan views and focus on the voters who are “in play”. If we look only at voters who say they would vote Liberal today, but would also consider voting for another party (“Liberal Losable”, who amount to 24% of the population as a whole) here’s what this analysis shows:
• On 6 of the 8 items tested the majority were not affected in terms of any change in feeling towards the government. Only the banknote decision and the rejection of Northern Gateway had an impact on more than half of this voter group, and decidedly positive in both cases.
• Between 6% and 15% of these Liberal voters feel worse about the government based on a variety of these events, but in each case, equal or larger numbers said the item made them feel better about the government.
• The two biggest net positives for the government with these voters were the Northern Gateway decision and the Viola Desmond choice. Both pipelines that were approved had a positive impact on about a quarter and a negative impact on 15%-16%.
If we look at those who are not voting Liberal now or are undecided but would consider voting Liberal (“Liberal Winnables” who amount to 25% of the population), we find:
• Most of the events had little affect thus far on feelings about the federal government. Putting Viola Desmond on a banknote had the greatest potential pull for the Liberals. Rejecting Northern Gateway also had a net positive effect.
• The pipeline approvals had a mixed effect. Electoral reform matters had little effect. The fundraising questions had the largest net negative impact, with 21% saying it made them feel worse about the government and 7% better.
THE UPSHOT
According to Bruce Anderson:
“The choices the government has been making on energy and climate policy are probably the most politically challenging ones they face, in terms of trying to sustain support among a broad coalition of voters across the spectrum.
So far, the combination of decisions on carbon pricing, pipelines, and shifting energy use, is landing relatively well. Some are disappointed with a pipe that’s approved, others with a pipe that’s rejected. Some think the carbon price is too low or too slow, while others feel the opposite way. However, in terms of the overall impact on the support levels for the government, making choices on these controversial issues probably could have gone a lot worse. Of course, it’s fair to observe that the debate on the Trans Mountain pipeline is far from over – and the full impact will only be known over time.
Of the other issues and events we looked at, the debate about Liberal fundraising practices is the one that looks as though it could have some corrosive effect on Liberal support – but the impact so far has been pretty modest.
The results on the other matters we explored are another reminder that (remember Elbowgate) a lot of what else generates heat in day to day politicking in Ottawa goes unnoticed outside the smallish community of people who are highly tuned into politics.”
According to David Coletto:
“As the year comes to an end, the political environment in Canada looks much like it did at the start of the year. The Liberals hold commanding leads in Canada’s three largest provinces and have more support than on Election Day in October 2015.
In the past month, the Trudeau government has made some difficult decisions about pipelines, faced scrutiny over its fundraising practices, and criticism for its handling of its electoral reform pledge. The pipeline decisions seem to have been accepted by most Canadians as a reasonable balance. Even in BC, where 39% say the decision to approve Trans Mountain made them feel worse about the government, Liberal support is unchanged, and still above what the party received in the last election.
We have seen a decline in the pool of accessible voters for the Liberals, but we’ve seen a similar decline for three of the four major parties. In November 2015, 70% of Canadians said they would consider voting Liberal. Today, it’s down to 59%, the same level we found in the final weeks of the federal election campaign. Governing for a year has shrunk the tent a bit, but the Liberals remain in a far better place than any of their rivals.
The results also shed some light on the difference between what we in the “Ottawa bubble” focus on and think as consequential, and what the public hears and reacts to. The debate about electoral reform is a case in point. Over four in ten Canadians have not even heard of about the mydemocracy.ca consultation or the government’s reaction to the electoral reform committee recommendations. And among those who have, few have reacted in either a positive or negative way suggesting even after a barrage of negative commentary, the public has not really noticed nor cared.”
METHODOLOGY
Our survey was conducted online with 1,848 Canadians aged 18 and over from December 12 to 14, 2016. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians.
The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 1,848 is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
ABACUS DATA INC.
We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value-added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, Ph.D.
Often Canada is described as a hockey country, and with some reason. But even more Canadians share a passion for music. Fully 11.5 million Canadians say they “love music” and another 8.5 million “like it a lot”. In total 87% say they love, like music a lot, or like it quite a bit.
Appreciation of music is pretty universal, and is fairly consistent across regions. But women show greater passion for music than men, and younger people are more enthusiastic music lovers than older people.
Of course, like sports, not everyone likes exactly the same thing when it comes to music. Pop music claims an enthusiastic 11 million adult fans (love it, like it a lot, like it quite a bit), dominated, as has likely always been the case, by younger people. No doubt the audience for pop music grows significantly if one includes the passions of adolescents and teens, who are not included in our survey.
But what is maybe more interesting is that a wide variety of other genres of music all have fan bases numbering in the multi-millions. Even the genre with the smallest fan base, opera, finds 3 million fans.
Other some other interesting findings:
• Country is the third most popular genre of music in Canada, tied with classical music. • Hip hop & rap has the youngest audience, and fans of that genre also enjoy reggae & R&B. • Instrumental jazz has a slightly larger fan base than vocal jazz music. • Traditional country music enjoys almost as big a fan base as modern country music. • In Quebec, 59% say they like or love Quebecois or francophone music. 9% of Canadians outside Quebec share their passion for that kind of music. • Among those who like classical music, 1/3 enjoy opera. • However, among those who like opera, 86% enjoy classical music. • Bluegrass lovers tend to stand out for their enjoyment of a wide range of music genres.
THE UPSHOT
Bruce Anderson: “In the coming months we’ll document the passions that Canadians have for a variety of cultural products, from books to films, to TV programming genres. With this opening look at music, the first thing that jumps out is that the demand for music is very broad and the passion runs pretty high. And, while pop music draws the biggest audiences, Canadians show plenty of interest in a wide array of other musical styles too.
What’s more, there’s a good deal of crossover interest – some of it perhaps unexpected. There are generational differences as one might expect, but in many cases these are smaller or more muted than might have been expected. Almost as many people under 40 as over 40 love jazz vocalists as one example.”
METHODOLOGY
Our survey was conducted online with 1,500 Canadians aged 18 and over from October 7 to 12, 2016. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians.
The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 1,500 is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
Abacus Data Inc.
We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value-added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, Ph.D.
In our latest national public opinion survey (conducted November 11 to 13), we explored public attitudes towards public funding of sports in Canada and interest in the Summer Olympics in Rio.
Here’s what we found:
• Canadians are generally supportive of public funds being used for a variety of sport initiatives but are more inclined to support initiatives that have the greatest reach and encourage sport participation among Canadians.
• 85% believe that spending public money on sport infrastructure for recreational use is a good use (53%) or an acceptable use (32%) of public money. A similar percentage (84%) feel that using public money to promote sport participation among Canadians is a good or acceptable use of public funds.
• There is also broad public support for using public money to fund sports that compete in major international competitions (80% good use/acceptable use), to fund national sports organizations directly that promote, enhance, and govern sports across Canada (78% good use/ acceptable use), and to support the hosting of major sporting events in Canada (75% good use/acceptable use).
• And although there is less enthusiastic support for investing in sport infrastructure for high performance athletics or directly supporting high performance athletes to cover living and travel expenses, there is little resistance to these uses of public money. In both cases, over two thirds of Canadians think it’s either a good use or an acceptable use of public funds.
• And the support we find is broad based crossing demographic, regional, and political lines. Of note, those who voted Liberal in 2015 are somewhat more likely to think using public funds to support sports in Canada is a good use of that money.
• Not surprisingly, those who followed the Rio Olympics closely were more likely to think spending public funds on sports is a good use of the funds.
• Many of us tuned into the Rio Summer Olympics. Four in ten Canadians we surveyed (aged 18 and over) said they followed the Summer Olympics in Rio de Janeiro very closely (13%) or fairly closely (28%) representing about 12 million Canadians aged 18 and over.
• Interest in the Summer Olympics crossed all age, gender, regional and political groups. Those who voted Liberal in 2015 were slightly more likely to pay close attention to the games (50%) but a sizable portion of Conservative and NDP voters also paid close attention.
• Among those who followed the Summer Olympics at least fairly closely, we asked which sport they followed the most. 31% said swimming, followed by athletics (track and field) at 26%, soccer at 9%, diving at 7%, and volleyball at 4%. 5% said they followed them all closely while 9% identified another support.
• When asked why they followed that sport closely, 45% said it was because a Canadian athlete or team had a good chance of winning a medal while 41% said because they are a big fan of the sport.
UPSHOT
According to David Coletto:
“Most Canadians believe that public funds should be used to support sports in Canada but are more inclined to support things that they can use – like recreational infrastructure and programs that encourage public participation in sports. They also are more likely to support funding individual sports that compete in major international competitions.
But our survey also indicates that most Canadians also see the value in directly funding and building infrastructure to support high performance athletes who compete in international competitions.
It is also worth mentioning that sport funding is not a politically divisive issue. Unlike some other policy areas we look at, we don’t find large differences of opinion between Liberal, Conservative, or NDP voters. Instead, we find unity in our collective love for sports.
Four in ten or 12 million Canadian adults closely followed the Rio Olympics while another 37% followed it a bit. Audiences were drawn to the summer games to cheer on Canadian athletes competing for medals but also to the sports we love. It’s this passion for sports that gives policy makers license to use public funds to support sports which encourage healthy living and participation while at the same time creating national pride in our athletes and their achievements.”
METHODOLOGY
Our survey was conducted online with 2,200 Canadians aged 18 and over from November 11 to 13, 2016. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians.
The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 2,200 is +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
ABACUS DATA INC.
We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value-added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, Ph.D.
In our latest national public opinion survey (conducted November 11 to 13), given the contemporary debate about oil, pipelines, climate and carbon, we explored some current views about the development of oil resources in Canada.
Here’s what we found:
• Our recent polls have demonstrated a Canadian desire to shift energy production and consumption towards renewable and lower carbon sources. However, these results make it clear that most prefer a transition, rather than an abrupt stop when it comes to the development of domestic oil.
Broad majorities support the development of oil reserves from conventional oil wells in AB and SK (82%), from Canadian wells offshore in the Atlantic (73%) and from the oil sands in Northern Alberta (70%).
• Support for developing conventional oil is highest in the two producing provinces and among Conservative voters, but it is relatively lower in Quebec (72%) and among those who voted NDP (77%), two subgroups that tend to be less supportive of oil use generally.
• Support for developing off-shore oil reserves is highest in Atlantic Canada (88%) and in Alberta (86%) and lowest in Quebec (62%).
• Continued oil sands development finds majority support in every region of the country, although Quebecers are split almost equally. As with other types of oil development, younger Canadians are less supportive than older Canadians. Conservative voters are most enthusiastic about developing the oil sands (92% support, 44% strongly), but most LPC (65%) and NDP (58%) voters also support developing this resource.
• A small portion (9%) of the population supports conventional and offshore oil but opposes development of the oil sands.
• When asked whether they would like to see increased or decreased production from the oil sands and from off-shore reserves, the plurality prefers no change in production levels. About one in four felt Canada should produce less than now while a similar number felt production should be increased.
• Support for expanding oil sands production was highest in Alberta (43%) and lowest in Quebec (15%). 40% of Quebecers want oil sands production to be reduced, the highest in the country. In BC, 23% want oil sands production expanded, 53% prefer the status quo, while 24% want production reduced.
• 47% of Conservative voters favour expanding oil sands production, while 44% prefer no change, and 9% would like to see a reduction.
• Liberal Party voters prefer production levels as they are now (54%) with 28% favouring a reduction and 18% an increase.
• NDP supporters tend (45%) to favour reducing oil sands production, but the majority prefers the status quo (40%) or even expansion (15%).
• 36% of Conservative voters favour expanding off-shore production, only 11% want a reduction. Among NDP voters, 15% favour expansion, 52% favour the status quo while 34% want off-shore oil production to be reduced.
• One reason people continue to support the development of Canada’s oil resources is that they have not concluded that doing so would make it impossible for the country to meet its emission reduction targets.
40% think it is possible for Canada to develop its oil resources and meet its greenhouse gas emission reduction targets by reducing emissions from other activities, while 24% do not think this is possible and 36% are not sure.
• The views of Canadians about oil production are conditioned by a sense that global demand for the product will decline at some point. When asked what they thought the world market would look like in 20 years’ time, 46% said demand would be lower than it is today, compared to 31% who believe demand will be greater.
Even in Alberta (38%) and Saskatchewan (36%) and among CPC voters (35%) almost four in ten believe that demand for oil will be lower in 20 years.
Among those favour increasing production of the oil sands, 37% say that oil demand will be shrinking in 20 years while 39% think it will grow.
• We asked about perceived differences between offshore and oil sands production. There were a few points of differentiation:
o There was a slight tendency to feel that offshore production is better than oil sands when it comes to getting the product foreign markets, the impact on GHG emissions, and economic benefits but perhaps slightly inferior in terms of overall environmental impact and worker safety. However, these differences were modest – the tendency was to see both forms of oil production as similar.
o Regionally, there was little variation in perceptions. Apart from Atlantic Canadians being more likely to think that off-shore is better than oil sands in terms of emissions and Quebecers being more likely to think off-shore is better than oil sands in terms of economic benefit, the same views about the two production methods were held in different regions of the country.
UPSHOT
According to Bruce Anderson:
“Canadians generally believe that the future will see and should see a reduction in reliance on fossil fuels and non-renewable energy. They embrace an environmental imperative and also sense potential economic opportunity in the growing market for clean energy solutions, or a risk of losing ground to competitors that shift to more sustainable energy sources more quickly.
But the pragmatic nature that defines Canada on many issues is clear when it comes to our energy resources: most people do not want an abrupt shift, but a measured, ambitious transition.
Mainstream voters reject arguments that are overly binary: right or wrong, moral or immoral, now or never. They are far more drawn to ideas about how to marry their environmental aspiration with their economic goals and to achieve economic renewal and growth based on cleaner forms of energy.”
According to David Coletto:
“Canadians generally support continuing to develop of our oil resources and few discriminate their support across different types of development be it conventional, oil sands, or off-shore production. Quebecers are the most resistant, but even a majority in the province support the development of the oil sands.
When it comes to comparing off-shore and oil sands production, few Canadians see a difference in terms of economic benefit, safety, and environmental impact. Although one type of production may have advantages over another, few Canadians can recognize them at this point.”
METHODOLOGY
Our survey was conducted online with 2,200 Canadians aged 18 and over from November 11 to 13, 2016. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians.
The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 2,200 is +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
ABACUS DATA INC.
We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value-added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, Ph.D.
Abacus Data conducted a national survey for the Toronto Star and CBC News in October and November. The results were released last week as part of a 5-part series on digital privacy and law enforcement.
Overall, the survey finds that Canadians are generally split on whether law enforcement agencies should have greater powers to access personal digital data, but support jumps substantially when we include the condition of judicial oversight.
In our latest survey of national opinion, we explored the issues people are concerned about across Canada today.
• One in three (34%) say that economic conditions in general are the most important issue facing Canada today. This is the number one concern of 47% in Alberta, and a much smaller 27% in BC.
• Another 9% say unemployment is their biggest preoccupation. Again, this number is 17% in Alberta, making it the second ranked issue in that province. This means that roughly two out of three (64%) Albertans put the economy and unemployment on the top of the priority list, almost twice as many as do across the country overall (34%).
• Health care ranks as the 2nd most important issue among people over 45, but only ties for 4th among those under 45.
• In BC, housing is the 3rd most important issue. In Ontario, housing is only the 6th most important issue. In the other provinces, less than 1% mention it as the top issue. Across the country, housing garners twice as many mentions as top issue among those under 45 compared to those over that age.
• Immigration is considered the most important issue by 5%, terrorism 2% and foreign policy or defence 1%. Concern about immigration twice as high in Manitoba/Saskatchewan as it is in Ontario.
• The environment/climate change is considered the top issue by 8% nationally. Women and those under 45 put a greater emphasis on this issue than men and older people, but the differences are modest. This issue ranks 5th among men and tied for 4th among women. BC leads in concern on this issue.
The preoccupations of Canadians vary substantially based on their partisan leanings.
• Among NDP voters, the top 3 mentions, were the economy (27%) poverty/inequality (25%) and the environment/climate change (14%).
• Among Conservatives, the top three were the economy (51%), health care (10%) and unemployment (10%). Immigration was mentioned by just 6%, and terrorism (3%), defence/foreign policy (0%), and law and order (4%) were much farther down the list of top issues. The environment/climate change was mentioned by 1% of Conservative voters.
• Among Liberal supporters, the top three were the economy (38%), health care (18%) poverty/inequality (13%), followed by climate change (9%).
UPSHOT
According to Bruce Anderson:
“The differences in economic and social conditions are really evident when it comes to the preoccupations of people in different demographic groups and regions of the country. Housing is clearly a concern for young people and especially those in BC. The economic pain in Alberta is profoundly evident in these numbers too.
Beyond this, three other things stand out.
One is the wide gulf between Conservatives and others in terms of the urgency they feel about the climate change issue.
The second is that notwithstanding the unsettled global conditions and tensions few Canadians seem highly preoccupied with defense, security, terror or law and order issues – these were a lot more prominent during the years of the Harper administration.
Finally, while screening immigrants has become a major topic of conversation in the CPC leadership race, immigration is far from a major preoccupation across the country.
Conservative voters are twice as likely as Liberals and three times as likely as New Democrats to say it is their top issue, but even at that, only 6% of those who voted Conservative last fall put it at the top of their priority list.”
METHODOLOGY
Our survey was conducted online with 2,200 Canadians aged 18 and over from November 11 to 13, 2016. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians.
The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 2,200 is +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
ABACUS DATA INC.
We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value-added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, Ph.D.
