The Xennial [Zen-ee-al]. You might have thought that us stats guys were busy recalibrating our regression models after Brexit and Donald Trump’s audacious electoral win—speaking of which, please consider donating to our crowd funder to aid broken and out-of-work statisticians 2016 has so crassly left washed upon the melancholic shores of societal dejection, they need you now more than ever – ha! You obviously underestimate the industrial statistical complex! So, as the ink dries on your Millennial recruitment plan and your organizational restructuring, tear it up, as now we present to you the Xennial!
Yes, that generation that’s not quite Generation X but not really a Millennial either. How can you spot the difference? Here’s a quick test to find out. Answer the following questions:
Did you actually watch Friends season 1 on the television (not Netflix)?
Finish this sentence, “Captain Planet he’s our _____________”
When you hear the letters “ICQ” does a rush of nostalgia and teen angst come over you?
If you answered:
Yes
No
Hero
Yes
You are a Xennial!
But enough of this Buzzfeed generational postulating, let’s get down to the facts.
The concept of Xennial comes from Australian academic Dan Woodman, Associate Professor of Sociology at The University of Melbourne. Xennials are the micro generation born between 1977 and 1983. They are characterized as having the cynicism associated with Generation X as well as the drive and optimism of the Millennial generation. They grew up in an analog world but were young enough to grab hold of the digital revolution and navigate it but are not as comfortable with technology as Millennials are. Woodman remarks, that it was a particularly unique experience. “You [Xennials] have a childhood, youth and adolescence free of having to worry about social media posts and mobile phones. It was a time when we had to organise to catch up with our friends on the weekends using the landline, and actually pick a time and a place and turn up there.” This makes the Xennial generation unique as they do not expect the hand-holding that has come to define the Millennial generation yet they are more than willing to voice their opinion in a team meeting unlike Gen Xers. This could represent an interesting niche in the world of business. As middle managers they can more easily relate to Gen X and Boomer’s analog-isms while being able to communicate with the narcissistic, technophile Millennials.
As of the last Census (2016) there were 3 207 570 Xennials in Canada which represents approximately 9% of the Canadian population. Xennial couples on average make $97 510 as compared to the general Canadian couple at $86 410 (Stats Can: 2016). Xennial singles also perform better than the average Canadian single making $40 570 as compared to $27 690 (Stats Can: 2016). This is a generation that has buying power and inhabits a unique seat in the generational timeline understanding both the old analog world and the fast-paced digital world of the future. Traditional Gen X and Millennial advertising tends not to work on them so advertisers both political and commercial will need to pivot accordingly. Xennials know that they are different thus communications which highlight this would resonate with them.
Oh, and here’s one more piece of nostalgia for you…click here
Want to know more about Canadian Millennials Xennials? Contact us to find out how we can help your organization succeed in the Xennial (and Millennial) Marketplace.
For the last few years, there have been clear signals that Canada’s newspaper industry is struggling and some newspapers may end up in bankruptcy. In our most recent survey, we asked a few questions to get a sense of how people are feeling about this. Here’s what we found:
Just under half (44%) live in a community served by a single daily. 32% don’t have a daily, and 24% have more than one to choose from.
Fully 86% believe they would still be able to get the news they need if their daily newspaper went out of business. Only 14% felt they would not. Consumers’ confidence that they would manage to get the news they need – was widespread in every region, among all age groups, both genders, urban and rural dwellers, homeowners and renters, and supporters of all three major parties. Even among those who only have one newspaper in their community, 84% think they would still be able to get the news they feel they need.
Reactions were mixed on whether “the federal government has a responsibility to do something to make sure there are strong local media serving communities across Canada”. A sizeable minority (44%) see a responsibility to do something, but most (56%) say “this is not an area where government should get involved”. Millennials (51%) were more likely to want some government action compared to Boomers (38%) but opinion is clearly split no matter what the age group. Opinion on government intervention is a bit different depending on political affiliation. NDP voters are evenly split (51%-49% in favour of action), Conservatives opposed (66%-34%) and Liberals in between, but leaning laissez faire (55%-45%). Albertans were more likely to oppose federal government intervention, and Quebecers more likely to support it, but views were fairly similar across the country, including in the largest cities. Those with only one newspaper were just as likely to oppose government intervention as those served by more than one newspaper.
UPSHOT
According to Bruce Anderson: “Newspaper bankruptcies, should they occur, may have a more severe impact on the amount and the quality of information than Canadians imagine will be the case.
Because people consume information using a variety of digital platforms, they may not be as aware as used to be the case of the sources of their news, and the important role of local newspapers in newsgathering. It’s also possible that they believe that different media outlets will fill in the gaps that would occur with newspaper failures, using different business models.
The biggest takeaway thought is that many people seem to shrug at what could be seismic events in the history of Canadian newspapers. On the question of whether government should act, people seem a little bit more concerned about what could go wrong with government intervention, rather than demanding some sort of solution.”
METHODOLOGY
Our survey was conducted online with 1,518 Canadians aged 18 and over from June 2 to 5, 2017. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians.
The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 1,518 is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
ABACUS DATA INC.
We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value-added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, Ph.D.
Following President Trump’s trip to the Middle East and Europe, we decided to ask Canadians how they were feeling about the new President, a little over 100 days into his term in office.
Here’s what we found:
Very few (10%) think Mr. Trump represented America well at the G7 meeting, and a large majority (77%) said his approach reflected poorly on his country. Remarkably, one in every two people thinks represented America “very poorly”. Boomers and Millenials agree. Albertans and Quebecers saw it the same way. This was not only a view held by those on the left — the majority of Conservative voters (58%) think he did a poor job too.
As of today, 39% think Donald Trump is the worst President in US history. Another 29% say he is “one of the worst”. Only 10% think he’s average. One in 50 people in Canada thinks he’s the best President ever.
We also asked people to assess the impact of President Trump. On every item measured, two-thirds or more think his impact is for the worse. He’s seen as most harmful to the environment, world stability, and the image of America. But most also think he’s doing harm to the economy of his country (and ours) and to the standard of living of American citizens.
bad for the environment (85%)
bad for America’s image in the world (85%)
bad for peace and stability in the world (83%).
bad for Canada’s economy (79%)
bad for the standard of living of the average American (71%)
bad for America’s economy (64%)
Given forced choice descriptors to help paint a portrait of President Trump, more than 80% of Canadians see the US President as arrogant, mean, unethical, thoughtless, undisciplined, and someone with bad values. Large majorities see him as dumb, unprincipled, ignorant and dishonest.
While opinions of President Trump are divided within America, there’s a fair bit of consistency when it comes to the views of Canadians. Liberal Party supporters are more critical, but more than two-thirds of Conservative voters see the US President as rude, mean, unethical, thoughtless, and undisciplined. Most also think he’s ignorant, dishonest, unprincipled and has bad values.
Women tend to be more critical than men, but the differences are relatively modest. And Baby Boomers have almost exactly the same harsh view of the US President as do Millenials.
UPSHOT
According to Bruce Anderson: “It’s common for Canadians to have tepid feelings for Republican Presidents. But these numbers go far beyond any norms I can recall. They reveal profound dismay about the character and personal attributes of Mr. Trump as well as fear that he is causing harm to the world, to the interests of Canadians, and to the very people who elected him. American polls reveal that Mr. Trump has found record levels of disapproval at this stage of a new Presidency. In Canada, if people were willing to give Mr. Trump some benefit of the doubt, that attitude has been dissipating quickly.
According to David Coletto: “Not sure there’s any more I can add that these numbers don’t say themselves. Donald Trump is not just personally disliked by the vast majority of Canadians, but few of us think his policies are doing any good for anyone in Canada, the United States, or the world. It’s not just that we don’t like what he’s doing; we just don’t like him.”
METHODOLOGY
Our survey was conducted online with 1,518 Canadians aged 18 and over from June 2 to 5, 2017. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians.
The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 1,518 is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
ABACUS DATA INC.
We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value-added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, Ph.D.
Canada has been facing experience significant floods in recent years, with corresponding increases in the relief costs borne by governments, and rising financial pressures on insurers and the insured.
In our latest poll, we asked whether people felt this type of weather related emergency is caused by climate change.
Three out of four (76%) people think it’s likely or certain than that climate change is the cause, compared to only 24% who doubt that fact. Alberta is the least convinced province, but even there, 58% believe these disasters are related to climate change.
Liberal voters are most convinced of the connection, at 87%, followed by NDP voters (82%). Conservative voters are split: 53% believe climate change is involved, 48% think it unlikely.
The belief that these floods are caused by climate change has a direct and clear relationship with how people feel about the value of the Paris Climate Accord:
• Those who think the floods are caused by climate change are 93% in favour of Canada staying in the Paris Accord.
• Event those who think the relationship is “unlikely” are mostly (73%) of the view that Canada should remain committed to Paris.
• Only the smaller group who feel climate change is “very unlikely” or “certainly not” responsible for these events believe Canada should exit the Paris Accord.
UPSHOT
According to Bruce Anderson: “Most Canadians support taking more action on climate change and do so for a variety of reasons.
Many feel a moral imperative to do right by future generations. Plenty feel there is an economic opportunity in making a transition to a cleaner energy economy.
However, many Canadians have also come to believe that the risks and costs of climate change are being felt today – and are not just problems that might happen, some years down the road.
This is changing the political math surrounding the climate change issue.
It’s harder for opponents of climate action to make the case that doing more is unaffordable when people see real and mounting costs associated with the climate problem already.
At the same time, advocates of action can make the case that costs are already rising quickly, and action is financially prudent, not risky. For some, rising insurance or clean up costs may seem more disruptive than pricing carbon.”
METHODOLOGY
Our survey was conducted online with 1,518 Canadians aged 18 and over from June 2 to 5, 2017. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians.
The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 1,518 is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
ABACUS DATA INC.
We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value-added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, Ph.D.
The vast majority of Canadians (84%) say President Donald Trump made the wrong call in exiting the Paris Climate Change Accord, and exactly the same number say Canada should remain committed to the deal.
Unusually, these views cross partisan lines.
Even a majority of Canadian Conservative voters, who have generally been opposed to measures to fight climate change, are convinced that Trump’s decision was unwise (61%) and that Canada should stay in the deal (62%).
A large part of the reason why people support climate action is to prevent environmental calamities and to do the right thing by future generations. But increasingly, our research is revealing that more and more people see a shift from non-renewable fossil fuel energy as part of a sound economic strategy for the future.
In this survey, by a margin of 3 to 1 Canadians say they think the economies in the world that do the best in the future will be those that shift to renewable or cleaner energy, rather than those who use lower-cost fossil fuels for as long as possible.
This view is even held by a small majority (53%) of Conservative voters and a substantial majority of people living in Alberta and Saskatchewan.
UPSHOT
According to Bruce Anderson: “Donald Trump, while intending to do the opposite, has possibly done more to galvanize support for climate action than his predecessors in the White House.
Mr. Trump is deeply unpopular in Canada (we’ll have a release on this later this week) and his arguments against the Paris Accord (it’s too costly for America, we need to use more coal, etc.) are probably helping clarify for people what side of this argument they don’t want to be on.
This week in Parliament, only days after Mr. Trump’s announcement, Canada’s Conservative Party reversed field and voted in support of the Paris Accord, for the first time. As incoming leader Andrew Scheer had previously voted against the Accord, it’s not a stretch to believe that the fact and the tone of Mr. Trump’s leadership made it even more uncomfortable for the Conservatives to stand outside the global mood in support of the Accord.
But possibly the most important finding in this survey is the growing feeling among Canadians, including many Conservatives and Albertans, that an energy transition is not only good for the environment but probably sensible economic strategy too.
According to David Coletto: “There are few Donald Trump fans in Canada and his decision to pull the United States out of the Paris Accord on climate change did very little to gain new ones. The overwhelming majority in Canada think it was a bad decision and a similar number think Canada to should press ahead and remain committed to the Accord.
As Bruce said, Trump probably did more to mobilize action for action on climate change in opposing the Accord than any international leader could have done arguing in favour of it.
In Canada, support for our government to press ahead is broad and deep. The audience for political leaders who doubt climate change is happening is small (and shrinking).
Trump fashions himself a master of deal making, but there’s little evidence that his idea of renegotiation with the rest of the world is taking root.”
Listen to a quick audio briefing on the results here:
METHODOLOGY
Our survey was conducted online with 1,518 Canadians aged 18 and over from June 2 to 5, 2017. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians.
The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 1,518 is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
ABACUS DATA INC.
We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value-added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, Ph.D.
As the Conservative Party is set to announce its second leader in the party’s short history (since merging the PC Party and Canadian Alliance), a lot of the debate within the party and among commentators has been about how the party needs to engage with and appeal to Millennial voters.
I crunched some numbers using data we’ve collected, historical data from the Canadian Election Studies going back to 2004, and turnout estimates from Elections Canada.
Here’s the bottom line as I see it.
#1: Millennials will be the largest age cohort in the 2019 election. It’s the first time in over 40 years that Baby Boomers will not make up the largest group in the electorate.#2: While they are less likely to vote, turnout among Millennials is growing. You can’t count on them staying home in 2019. That’s a risky proposition. Even if their turnout rate remains lower, the size of the group means the number of voters will increase again in 2019.
#3: The Conservatives have been competitive among Millennials for most of the time they could vote. But in 2015, the Conservatives fell to third among this group. Note sample sizes for 2004/2006 are quite small.
#4: The Conservatives and Liberals won about the same share of the vote among Baby Boomers in 2015. And through the years the Tories won, they counted on Boomer support for victory. There, Millennials were fundamental to the Liberal win and the Conservative defeat (reminder: PM Trudeau is also Minister of Youth).
The Upshot
For me, the Conservatives and the party’s next leader has two choices.
It can put all its effort into winning a larger share of Boomers and Gen Xers and hope Millennials stay home (both are risky propositions).
It can recognize that social conservatism, anti-climate change positions, and perceived intolerance for diversity are alienating the largest groups of voters in the electorate and make a concerted effort to appeal to my generation.
Without changing and adapting to the shifting market it’s competing in, 2019 will feel a lot like 2015 and the road back to power will be bumpy. It’s basic market orientation. Something the Harper Conservatives in 2006 recognized. It’s time to recognize it again.
It’s been just over a year and a half since the last federal election. Conservatives across the country have been mailing in ballots and their new leader will be known next weekend. The NDP race may now have a final lineup set and switch into a higher gear.
As partisans of each party consider where they’ve been and what they need to accomplish, here’s what our latest trend analysis tells us about the circumstances of the two main opposition parties.
THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY OF CANADA
• Just under half of all voters say they would consider voting Conservative. Under the interim leadership of Rona Ambrose, that number is about what it was during most of the last year in which Stephen Harper was leader. The Conservative accessible voter pool hit a low just before the election at 40%, a level that made it very difficult if not impossible, to win.
The size of the pool has recovered slightly from that low, but the current pool of 46% means that the party is back to where it was in the final months of the Harper era prior to the 2015 Election. The Conservative voter pool is the same size as that of the NDP, and 13 points smaller than that of the Liberal Party.
Regionally, the Conservative voter pool is largest in Alberta (62%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (53%), and Ontario (51%) while smallest in Quebec (32%) and BC (39%). The current ceiling in BC is lower than the actual vote which the Conservative Party and its Reform/Alliance precursors regularly won (40-45%).
• In an election held today, the Conservatives would win 27% of the vote, down 5 points from their result on Election Day 2015. For the last 18 months, the average support for the Conservative Party has been 28%.
• In the last month or so, we saw a spike in support for the Conservative Party in Ontario, which has dissipated. Today, the party is polling 7-points below the level it achieved in the 2015 election in that province. These fluctuations may have had to do with the movement in popularity of the provincial Liberal Party.
• In Quebec, the Conservatives have been tracking steadily in the low teens since the last election, and in our latest measurement would get 14%, compared to the 17% they received in October 2015.
• In BC, the province with the third largest number of seats, our latest measure shows Conservative support at 18%, down 12 points from the election result. The party’s vote share has generally been in the area of 25% over the intervening months since the election.
• For many years, the Conservatives had a built-in electoral advantage: if they trailed the Liberals among younger voters, they more than made up for that by having an advantage among older voters, who were more numerous, and who turned out at a higher rate to cast a ballot. Today, we see the Conservatives trailing the Liberals by more than 10 points among voters over 45, by 16 points among those 30-44 and by 28 points among those under 30.
• Further complicating the electoral math for the party is the fact that by 2019, Millennials (those born between 1980 and 2000) will be the largest segment of the electorate. This will be the first time in over 40 years that Boomers will not make up the largest portion of the electorate.
• Half of Canadian voters consider themselves to be at the centre of the political spectrum (50%) with much smaller numbers on the left (29%) and the right (21%). Today, among self-described centrist voters, the Conservatives would finish third, with 18% support, compared to 22% for the NDP and 47% for the Liberals. The Conservatives have a sizeable advantage among voters on the right (59%), but even among that group, the Liberals claim 32% support.
• In their months as Official Opposition to the Trudeau government, the Conservatives have won the support of 6% of those who voted Liberal, while the Liberals have won 9% of those who voted Conservative.
THE NEW DEMOCRATIC PARTY OF CANADA
• 48% would consider voting NDP today. That number is well below the 60% achieved during the run-up to the last election and lower than the 52% we found just before the vote. In the intervening months, the NDP accessible voter pool has shrunk. At one point the NDP potential pool was 20 points bigger than that of the Conservative Party, today that gap is basically zero.
The NDP’s voter pool is fairly consistent across the country, except in Alberta where only 30% would consider voting for the federal NDP. About half of voters in every other region, including Quebec, would consider voting NDP.
• In terms of current voter intentions, the NDP level of support is identical to the result it achieved at the last election. (20%). The biggest challenge for the NDP in terms of recovering the competitiveness they enjoyed before the last election is in Quebec, where the party at one point enjoyed a 25-point lead over the Liberals and today find themselves 27-points behind for a remarkable 52-point swing in less than two years.
• NDP support is consistent among men and women and across different age groups.
• Perhaps the biggest challenge facing the NDP is seen when we look at voters across the political spectrum. Among voters in the centre, the NDP polls 22%, 27 points behind the Liberals. Among voters on the left, the results are not much better: the NDP claims 26%, well behind the Liberals at 45%.
• Since the election, the NDP have won 8% of those who voted Liberal, and the Liberals have won 8% of those who voted NDP.
UPSHOT
According to Bruce Anderson: “In the last couple of months, our polling showed some narrowing between the Conservatives and Liberals, mostly in Ontario. But our current numbers show that effect has disappeared, and the latest numbers are more like what we’ve been seeing for months.
Looking back over time provides a clear reminder that things can change – sometimes quickly and dramatically. The gains the Liberals have made can obviously not be taken for granted – voters give support and are always ready to take it away. That having been said, the government has taken policy initiatives that had the potential to cause significant trauma to their support levels – pipeline approvals, budget deficits, carbon pricing, refugee acceptance to name a few – and so far their support levels are holding up fairly well. These findings also underscore again how many issues that have the potential to preoccupy the House and the Hill often fail to capture the attention of most voters whose lives don’t revolve around politics.
As the Conservatives mark their ballots the numbers are another important signal that expanding the base and becoming more competitive among younger voters and non-ideological centrist voters is necessary for success. If Maxime Bernier is the winner of the Conservative race, the big question is whether his brand of conservatism is well suited to that task?
For the NDP, the challenge is perplexing if not the first time they’ve faced it. In a nutshell, they need to be more needed by the left and more relevant to the centre. Otherwise, their best hope will be a repeat of the disappointment of the 2015 election.”
According to David Coletto: “To me, this poll is more sobering and than reassuring to Canada’s two largest opposition parties.
For the Conservatives, its voter pool has rebounded from its lowest point just before the 2015 election. But the hurdles its new leader will face in rebuilding its past electoral coalition or constructing a new one are substantial. Its voter pool is in the 30s in both BC and Quebec (the second and third largest provinces). Only 40% of the soon to be the largest generation in the electorate, Millennials, would consider voting Conservative (5-points less than the Green Party) and the party has been squeezed to third place among the all-important “centrist” voters.
The NDP sits at pretty much the same place it has been for the past 18 months. It’s vote share is unchanged nationally, but is far from leading in any region of the country. While half of the electorate is open to voting NDP, including half of those who voted Liberal in 2015, it trails the Liberals across all demographic groups as well as those who self-identify as being on the left of the political spectrum.
The bottom line for the Conservative Party is that the electorate is shifting in a less Conservative-friendly direction. Millennial voters are becoming more powerful and the party needs to seriously consider how to appeals to this big group of voters. For the NDP, there is potential but the party needs dissatisfaction with Mr. Trudeau and the Liberals among progressive voters to rise while offering them something unique and distinct from the Liberal platform to switch to.”
Listen to our audio briefing about this poll:
METHODOLOGY
Our survey was conducted online with 1,182 Canadians aged 18 and over from May 10 to 12, 2017. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians.
The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 1,407 is +/- 2.9%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
ABACUS DATA INC.
We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value-added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, Ph.D.
One of the most topical political debates in Canada in recent months has been about how much our economy should depend in the future on harnessing fossil fuel resources.
In our latest survey, we decided to do some more probing to understand current feelings.
• Canadians tend to believe that demand for oil is more likely to rise than fall over the coming 10 years but as likely to fall as rise if we look 30 years out. The number of people who foresee falling demand more than doubles from 17% in 10 years to 39% in 30 years.
• We asked people what they would like to see happen to demand for oil, in an ideal world. While 51% felt demand for oil would grow over 10 years, only half that number 24% would like that to be the case. Almost twice as many prefer to see demand for oil decline (44%).
Looking out 30 years, only 19% would like to see demand rising, while roughly three times that many (55%) would prefer to see demand falling.
• It’s not surprising that Albertans see some of these issues differently, but the differences are smaller than might be expected. In that province only 54% expect oil demand to grow over the next 10 years. Thirty years out, 47% of Albertans expect demand will be rising, while 37% expect it will be falling.
• When it comes to what Albertans would like to see happen, a plurality hopes to see demand rising both at the 10-year (50%) and 30-year mark (39%), however, the proportions reveal mixed feelings even within a province which has experienced such significant benefit from oil resources.
We then explored a little bit more how people felt about the role of oil and gas in economic strategy for Canada and Alberta in the future.
With the preamble “oil and gas has been a big contributor to Canada’s economic well-being for decades”…we asked if people to choose whether “Canada’s priority should be to promote the use of Canada’s oil and gas because this is good for our economy”, or “ Canada should put a priority on other ways of growing our economy because in the future oil and gas will be replaced by other energy sources”.
• By a two to one margin, people favoured the more diversified approach, including 3 out of 4 Liberal and NDP voters. Among Albertans and Conservatives, opinion was almost evenly split. Millennial voters are 9-points more likely than baby boomers to want something other than a priority on oil and gas.
• We asked the same question about Alberta’s economic future. Almost identical numbers 66% v 34% said Alberta should prioritize other ways of growing its economy, including a majority of Albertans (56%) and 48% of Conservative voters.
Finally, we probed on whether people believe that a transition away from fossil fuels is necessarily harmful to the economy or whether such a shift could be done in a way that might end up creating an even stronger economic future.
• Three out of four (74%) people believe “if we are smart and thoughtful in how we plan a transition away from fossil fuels, Canada’s economy can be even more successful in the future”. Most Albertans (64%) and Conservative voters (61%) agree. Only 26% across the country believe that “no matter how hard we try, Canada’s economy will suffer in the future if demand for oil and gas is replaced by demand for other types of energy.”
• Confidence that Alberta could navigate a transition successfully is almost as high. Two out of three across Canada, and in Alberta believe a smart and thoughtful transition can see an even stronger Alberta economy in the future. Most Conservative voters (55%) also believe this can happen.
UPSHOT
According to Bruce Anderson: “In political and media circles, it can be characterized as controversial to talk about a transition away from a fossil fuel dependent economy. But for most voters, the idea doesn’t seem radical – they sense that given future demand for oil, it’s better considered inevitable.
Some environmental advocates may look at these numbers and worry that Canadians seem comfortable with a too gradual shift. However, a reasonable interpretation would be that people want a shift that can be accelerated, provided it is thoughtful about limiting economic disruption while seeking to create new economic opportunity.
Canadians, and many in Alberta as well believe a transition from a more fossil fuel dependent economy is, not so much a question of “whether”, but how and how fast.”
METHODOLOGY
Our survey was conducted online with 1,500 Canadians aged 18 and over from April 21 to 24, 2017. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians.
The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 1,500 is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20. For the split-sample questions, the margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 750 is +/- 3.7%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
For questions related to the best way forward for Canada and Alberta and whether transition away from oil and gas would be good for Canada or Alberta, we split the sample. A random half of the 1,500 respondents were asked questions related to “Canada” while the other half were asked questions related to “Alberta”.
ABACUS DATA INC.
We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value-added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, Ph.D.
While many are concerned about the potential impacts on the Canadian economy that could result from tax and trade measures in the United States under President Donald Trump, Canadians think now is the time for Canada to be ambitious and seek new opportunity where it can be found.
Here’s are some key findings from our most recent study:
• Almost everyone likes the idea of Canada trying hard to attract more leading researchers from all over the world to come to Canada (87%) and do their work here.
• Almost as many, 81%, say Canada should try hard to attract more investors from all over the world. Our survey last year on this topic revealed that most Canadians believe there is a real opportunity for Canada to succeed in this endeavour.
To underscore the fact that Canadians do not believe Canada should take a passive approach in the face of trade threats from the White House, we asked whether Canada should look for opportunities where US policies might create disruption and potential interest in Canada.
• 89% say Canada should make a special effort to draw more international businesses to locate in Canada rather than the US.
• 73% say Canada should work to attract a lot of tourists who don’t know if they are welcome in America right now.
• Two-thirds (65%) say Canada should work to attract a lot of talented workers who don’t know if they are welcome in America right now.
While many economic policy choices can reveal deep partisan or regional cleavages, for the most part, these ideas don’t. The large majority of people in all regions and across the three major parties like the idea of working to attract researchers and investment, and endorse the idea of making a special effort to reach those who may feel unwelcome in the US today.
UPSHOT
According to Bruce Anderson: “Many Canadians think there is a moment of opportunity for Canada, not only a substantial risk of US trade and tax measures that could unsettle conditions in Canada. People see this country as having lots to offer talent and investment capital from around the world, and believe we should make strenuous, special efforts to reach out an attract it, especially since some may feel less certain of the welcome they would receive in the US.
For governments, this is a clear signal that people want our best defense on trade issues, but don’t want Canada to only play defense – in fact the large majority see this as a moment of ambition, and are anxious that our political leadership seize the moment caused by political uncertainty in other parts of the world, to extol Canada’s advantages.”
METHODOLOGY
Our survey was conducted online with 1,500 Canadians aged 18 and over from April 21 to 24, 2017. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians.
The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 1,500 is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
ABACUS DATA INC.
We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value-added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, Ph.D.
Around the world political behaviour is influenced by attitudes about economic development, globalization and trade, and immigration. The election of Donald Trump, support for Brexit, and far-right movements in France and other European countries is often linked to concerns about globalization of trade and political control as well as rapid technological change. Many wonder if Canada is ripe for similar political upheaval.
To explore in greater depth Canadian attitudes towards globalization, technological change, immigration, and diversity, we developed a statistically-based segmentation to describe so-called “nationalist” and “globalist” influences Canada. Here’s what we found:
More Canadians (58%) are “globalist” than “nationalist” (43%) in their general orientation. Sizeable proportions have particularly strong versions of these feelings: 24% could be called “ultra-globalist” and 16% “ultra-nationalist“.
Globalists are in the majority in every region except for Quebec, where there’s an equal split between the two groups. Millennials are more likely to hold globalist attitudes (63%) than Baby Boomers (55%).
A clear majority of those who identify as upper or upper-middle class, middle class, and working class fall into the globalist group while those who identify as lower class are split between the two. Six in ten of those with college or university education are globalists while the slight majority of those with high school education or less are nationalist.
Globalists feel globalization has raised the standard of living for the poor around the world, that Canada should neither stop or slow immigration, that diversity is not a problem in Canada, and that globalization has not harmed their own economic well-being. Effectively all globalists (98%) agree that Canada is a better country because of its ethnic and cultural diversity.
Nationalists feel Canada should slow or stop immigration in the next few years and that there’s too much diversity in Canada. They are more likely to think Canada should try to be more like the US, and less likely to think that globalization and technological change have been good for them personally.
Most globalists feel good about the direction of the country and approve of the job the Trudeau government is doing. Among nationalists, more disapprove.
Nationalism is tied to personal economic anxiety – globalists think their economic prospects are improving, nationalists feel they are getting worse.
The Liberals won all segments in the last election. Current voting intentions show Conservatives with an 18-point lead among the ultra-nationalists and an 11-point lead among the lean nationalists while the Liberals continue to have significant advantages among ultra globalists (33-points) and the lean globalists (9-points).
The huge cleavage between the views of ultra-globalists and ultra-nationalists is powerful, on cultural issues (ultra-nationalists are 76 points more likely to think there is too much diversity in Canada) and on globalization (ultra-nationalists are 64 points more likely to feel globalization has been bad for their own economic well-being). However, the gap on the impact of technology is only 30 points, suggesting many ultra-nationalists in Canada do not believe that technological disruption is causing their economic distress.
To test the potential linkage to authoritarianism, we asked whether Canada would be better off run by a “successful businessman, someone with strong views, who tells it like it is”, 77% of ultra-nationalists and 62% of lean nationalists agree with this idea, while most globalists reject it.
UPSHOT
According to Bruce Anderson: “It would be a mistake to imagine there is no racism in this country, or that economic distress doesn’t build resistance to immigration. But it would also be a mistake to overestimate the size of these phenomena in Canada. The ultra-nationalist 16% are an important political constituency, drawing strength from the themes developed by candidates like Conservative Kellie Leitch and some comfort from the rise of similar political movements in the US and elsewhere.
While economic analysis shows that much economic dislocation has more to do with technological disruption than immigration, people tend to see it as a lesser factor, in part because they embrace technology in their everyday lives, and the specific impacts can be hard to spot. Also, it may simply be easier for some people to blame immigrants or immigration policy than to imagine a more complex and challenging set of forces.
Canadian politics is usually a battle around the centre of the spectrum, with economic confidence playing a huge role. What we saw in the last federal election, and what these numbers confirm again, is that cultural values have also become an important variable in how people see the future of the country, and how they evaluate their political choices. The Liberals can win when they unite those with globalist views; Conservatives struggle if they too closely associate with nationalistic urges. “
According to David Coletto: “The majority of Canadians hold clear globalist attitudes. They see the value of technological change and globalization and think diversity and immigration in Canada are assets, not liabilities. They are typically younger, more urban, and are more optimistic about the future.
But there is a substantial minority who hold different views about the value of diversity, immigration, and globalization to Canada and themselves. The most extreme of this group represents 16% of the population.
These ultra-nationalists overwhelmingly think immigration should be stopped or slowed, that there’s too much diversity in Canada, and globalization has been bad for their lot in life. While less intense in their views, another 27% lean towards the nationalist side and share many of the opinion attitudes about immigration and globalization.
So, is Canada immune to a populist uprising driven by nationalist, anti-immigration sentiment? It’s hard to conclude that it is not, especially given our political system that can allow minority opinions to be translated into governing majorities.
There is a path for a charismatic political leader to tap these anxieties and mobilize the minority into action, especially if globalists split their votes across parties who share their outlook. Given that 44% of Canadians and 68% of nationalist Canadians agree that Canada would be better off run by someone with strong views and who tells it like it is, we shouldn’t take for granted that what happened in the United States or in Europe can’t migrate here.
But anti-globalism is not the majority viewpoint in Canada and generational differences will likely reduce its prevalence in society over time. But this requires a feeling among the majority that globalization, diversity and technological change are things that do more good than harm.”
TAKE OUR QUIZ
Now it’s your turn to find out which group you most align with.
Please answer these seven questions and our model will tell you which group you most likely fit into.
https://abacusdata.ca/globalism_nationalist_quiz/
METHODOLOGY
Our survey was conducted online with 1,500 Canadians aged 18 and over from April 21 to 24, 2017. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians.
The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 1,500 is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
ABACUS DATA INC.
We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value-added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, Ph.D.
