‘What Abacus Does’ is a companion piece to some of the public facing opinion research we post. It looks at the research through a practical lens and gives a sneak peek into the type of work we do to unearth the strategic implications and “so what” of our data for clients, causes we support, and lunch room arguments.
When strategic communications advisors and pollsters want to understand the goings-on of the public sphere, they will often feed a number of high profile issues with significant media play into a survey. They design it in a way to get at a sense of what Canadians are paying attention to, and how they feel the relevant party – in this case the government – is doing on these measures. In its simplest form the output of such a survey might look something like this, from our latest poll.
While looking at the data this way gives us an overview of what Canadians are paying attention to and feel about issues, our strategic advisors responsible for giving our clients the “so what” of the data often look at synthesizing this information in a different way. Something that looks more like this:
Here, we can see where each issue lies on an axis of both attention (% who say they are following the issue somewhat, down and up) and performance (% who rate the government as good or acceptable, left to right). In other words, an issue located at the bottom right is one few are paying attention to but many are impressed with, an issue at the top left is one where many are paying attention and see performance as lacking.
Immediately we see three things:
1. The government gets high marks on NAFTA and the G20, but Canadians aren’t as engaged on those issues.
2. Jobs and climate change are highly engaging issues on which the federal government is performing well
3. The decision to settle the civil case with Omar Khadr and housing affordability are potential areas of vulnerability for the government. People are paying attention to these issues but the government is not seen to be performing as well on them.
Now, by way of the Liberals’ steady sailing in the horse race we can infer that these problem areas aren’t driving vote intention yet, despite strong and polarizing views. But we can say these are areas where the government may want to be more cautious.
Issues of the day don’t impact vote intention until they suddenly do, and issues with high attention and low perceived performance especially so.
For now, on the Khadr front at least, part of the reason for a lack of traction could be because opposition to the government’s handling is concentrated among Conservative voters (i.e. people already opposed to the government). We could also hypothesize from the impact chart that strong perceived performance on jobs, the economy and climate change are counteracting vulnerability on Khadr, at least for the time being.
For more information and analysis on the public opinion dynamics of Trump, the economy, and the Khadr file, and for information on survey methodology, please see two companion releases found here & here.
And if you have any questions about research and the strategic advice we can provide, feel free to reach out to me or our team.
Ihor is Head of Operations and Project Delivery at Abacus Data. He specializes in connecting abstract numbers and conceptual findings to real, tangible tactics that get results. You can reach him at ihor@abacusdata.ca.
Donald Trump is attracting huge interest on the part of Canadians, and not because people are impressed with the President. This month, the number of people who say he is America’s “worst president ever” stands at 49%, up 7 points in one month.
Polling Canadians about the topics they are paying attention to, finds Trump’s presidency topping the list, followed by jobs & the economy, climate change, the Khadr decision and housing affordability. Fewer people were following the NAFTA renegotiation and the G20 which just wrapped up in Hamburg.
Asked how they felt the federal government was handling each of these issues, most think the Trudeau government is doing a good or acceptable job with respect to the G20, climate change, jobs and the economy, NAFTA renegotiation and in how they are relating to President Trump. Opinion is split when it comes to housing affordability, with 44% saying the government is doing a good or acceptable job, and 46% saying poor.
On the matter of Mr. Khadr, 33% give the federal government a good/acceptable rating, compared to 55% who said poor.
An additional question on Khadr was asked in our survey that offered three possible responses: “the government made a difficult but perhaps the best choice available”, “the government should have made a different choice” or “I don’t really know enough of the details to have an opinion”. In answering this question, 43% said the government should have made a different choice, including 74% among Conservative voters.
Liberal and NDP voters tended towards the view that the government made a difficult but perhaps the best available choice with 28% nationally favouring this point of view. Almost one in three (29%) felt they didn’t know enough of the details to have an opinion.
A deeper analysis of who is paying attention to what reveals:
• The Khadr settlement attracted a lot of attention in most parts of the country, except Quebec. Attentiveness skews heavily towards older, and Conservative voters.
• The Trump presidency attracts lots of attention across the country, and above average attention among Baby Boomers.
• The climate change issue attracts lots of attention across the country, and across different age groups. Conservative voters are a bit less attentive to it than others, but 49% still say they are following it very closely or somewhat closely.
• The G20 meeting and NAFTA are lightly followed overall, with older people more likely to pay attention than younger people.
• Jobs is an issue where interest is also fairly consistent across the country and across generations and party lines.
• Interest in housing affordability spikes in British Columbia and Ontario, the two markets where markets have experienced the most upward price pressures in recent years. Seniors are paying as much attention as Millennials on this issue.
In terms of the ratings of the federal government, here are some key findings (among those who say they are paying some attention to each issue):
• On jobs and the economy, majorities in every region, all age groups give the government good or acceptable ratings. Even 49% of Conservative voters give the government a passing or better grade, as do 67% of NDP voters.
• On Khadr, Conservative voters are clearly unhappy, as are a majority of voters in every region but Quebec. Older voters are considerably more unhappy about this choice than younger voters.
• On climate change majorities in every region, including Alberta (72%) say the government is doing an acceptable or good job, as do a majority of Conservative voters (54%).
• Majorities across all regions, age groups and parties say the government is doing a good or acceptable job in dealing with Donald Trump’s presidency and the NAFTA renegotiation.
• On housing affordability, the most disappointed voters are NDP voters and BC residents.
UPSHOT
According to Bruce Anderson: “Canadians have a strong interest in Donald Trump, and opinions of the US President are growing worse. Against that backdrop, people tend to see the Canadian situation in a fairly positive light overall. Most people feel they have a government that is handling the economy fairly well, shows appropriate concern for climate change and is managing a tricky relationship with an unpredictable administration in Washington DC. There is no doubt that a pretty substantial number of people were uncomfortable with the Khadr settlement, but for many voters it is but one of a number of factors they use to evaluate the government – this one decision is not, for the moment anyway, playing a decisive role in their overall satisfaction with the Trudeau government.
One other thing stands out in these results – the fact that climate change is now a topic of broad mainstream interest across the country now. We may have entered something of a new normal in terms of the level of interest in this issue, and the policy choices that governments make around it.”
According to David Coletto: “This poll helps us understand the interplay of issues and individuals that are capturing the public’s attention at any given moment.
There’s no doubt that the settlement with Omar Khadr caught many Canadians’ attention and left a bad taste in many mouths. But these issues don’t operate in a vacuum, something Bruce and I have continually stressed in our analyses. Canadians are also paying close attention to what’s going on south of the border, with the economy and jobs, housing affordability and climate change.
Given that we found no change in public attitudes towards the government (approval and vote intention holding steady), it’s hard to conclude that the Khadr issue has materially hurt the Liberals at this point. In fact, a more likely explanation is that increasing confidence in the economy, general satisfaction with the government’s approach to climate change, and fairly good assessments of its handling of the Trump presidency might have offset any discomfort the Khadr decision might have had.”
METHODOLOGY
Our survey was conducted online with 2,036 Canadians aged 18 and over from July 14 to 18, 2017 2017. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians.
The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 2,036 is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
ABACUS DATA INC.
We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value-added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, Ph.D.
Its morning again in Canada and we would like to welcome you to the second edition of our series, The Millennial Vote. And if you happen to be one of the 183 Liberal MPs representing your constituents in the House of Commons, I’m going to feed some carbon neutral unicorn coal into the Sunny Ways Express. Despite several missteps, gaffes, and unfulfilled promises approval for Trudeau’s Liberals has sustained and even improved upon 2015 election levels. In a recent Abacus Poll we found that if an election were to be held tomorrow, more Canadians would vote Grit now than did in the last election. As of July 2017, 43% of those surveyed indicated that they would vote Liberal before any other party, a 3% bump since their electoral victory in 2015. This is not their highest peak, such as their immediate post-election honeymoon scores of 45%, but this an improvement over their February slump.
But let’s get back to those gaffes and disappointments as there have been a number of them. Such as, failed electoral reform, delayed marijuana legalization, the resignation of a NIMMIW Commissioner, and less we forget the divisive $10.5 million settlement to Omar Khadar. The list continues and it is extensive, yet, 43% is nothing to scoff at. Therefore, the question must be asked…how?
Well, economic growth and the perceived ramping up of Canada’s economic engine might be one of the reasons. We asked 2,036 Canadians to tell us how they feel about the economy and 68% of them told us that they felt that the economy was growing.
Boomers were the most likely to say that the economy was growing at 75%, followed by Generation X at 68%, and tailed moderately behind by the Millennials at 60%. The majority of all age groups saw the economy as growing although about a third of Millennials didn’t think so. This matches up with wider employment data. While aggregate unemployment is approximately 6.5%, youth unemployment has remained stubbornly high at 12%, so Millennials would be more likely to see the economy as shrinking or stagnant (Statistics Canada: 2017). This could be a future concern for Prime Minister Trudeau. During the campaign he and his Party presented an ambitious agenda for youth, promising to directly create 40,000 well-paid jobs for young people, to invest $385 million per year on an improved Youth Employment Strategy, to create 5,000 green jobs for youth per year, every year the Liberals are in office, not to mention more co-op positions and better pre-apprenticeship programs; essentially promising them everything short of the moon. Now, nearly 2 years into their mandate and youth unemployment is still double the aggregate unemployment rate and approximately only 0.75% lower than 2015 levels (Statistics Canada: 2017). Trudeau has raised the hopes of a generation and one thing we know about Millennials is that when you promise them something you better be able to deliver, otherwise they will shout from the mountain tops and tell the world just how terrible you are, just ask the our Bahamian friends at Fyre Fest.
Government approval is also high. Approximately 48% of Canadians surveyed approve of the job the Liberals are doing in government. Breaking this down by age, we see that Millennials have the highest opinion of the government with 52% approval. The Silent and Boomer generations have the second highest opinion of the government with 47% approval. Generation X has the lowest approval rating of the government with only 45% approving. The Silent and Boomer generations seem to be the most decided voters with only 12% neutral on the subject while Gen X (23%) and Millennials (21%) have a greater percentage that could be convinced either way.
Another interesting facet of the Liberal Government’s support is the high number of traditional NDP voters that approve of their actions. 49% of NDP voters support the actions of the Liberal Government which presents an interesting dynamic for their future Party leader to walk into. Not only must they jockey for the top spot with their fellow candidate but they also need to reassure Party members that they are more progressive than Justin Trudeau.
48% of Millennials would vote Liberal if an election were to be held tomorrow (their largest electoral bloc) and Gen X to a lesser degree (45%). The Boomer and Silent generations are in a dead heat divided between the Conservatives and the Liberals. They will still represent 35% of the electorate by the time 2019 rolls around and while 2015 has been dubbed the first Millennial election don’t count Battleground Boomer out of the race. Remembering that the electorally seasoned Boomers are more reliable to show up to the polls, policy makers would do well to remember the Boomers could still be the deciding factor of the next election.
In sum, things are looking good for Trudeau’s Liberals. Their coalition of the left is strong and they have a solid hold on the Millennial cohort. The Liberal Government is getting positive reviews from the NDP as well as from a few Red Tories (13%). The general mood in Canada is that the economy is good and getting better and this is the bottom line for most people. While the government might have its missteps and gaffes, so long as Canadians sense things are getting better and feel like they are prepared for the future they are willing to forgive and forget political blunders. Sunny ways might be here to stay for the foreseeable future but a dark cloud of youth unemployment is weighing heavily on that horizon. If Trudeau can’t make good on those election promise that third of economically pessimistic Millennials could easily swing to a Party whose economic trumpet is aptly polished. At the time of writing there are 640 days till the next federal election. The Conservative’s green-eared leader Andrew Scheer is still new to Canadians and has yet to prove himself as an alternative to Trudeau. While the NDP are a complete wildcard and a new leader could threaten the Liberal consolidation of the left. Nevertheless, at present, the Sunny Ways Express can keep chugging happily along.
Would you like to know more about the Millennial voter? Contact us to discover our full range of research and analytics services.
Also, if you missed our last episode of The Millennial Vote series you should really check it out as we analyse the real affect Millennials had on the 2017 UK General Election.
Methodology
Our survey was conducted online with 2,036 Canadians aged 18 and over from July 14 to 18, 2017 2017. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians.
The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 2,036 is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
Across the country, 43% say they would vote Liberal if a federal election were held today, 12 points ahead of the Conservatives (31%), and 27 points ahead of the NDP (16%).
In Ontario, the Liberals hold a 6-point advantage over the Conservatives, in BC, their lead is 13. The most interesting results in some respect are in Quebec, where the Liberals (at 53%) are almost 40 points ahead of the NDP, Conservatives, and BQ each of which is clustered around 14%.
A striking generational divide is evident in our latest numbers: the Liberals have a strong lead among Millenials and Gen X voters. The Conservatives are competitive with the Liberals among Baby Boomers and those in the Silent Generation.
Approval of the performance of the Trudeau government is at 48%, disapproval 34%. In every region except the Prairie provinces more people approve than disapprove of the federal government today. Among no age group do more people disapprove than approve of Ottawa’s performance.
Feelings about Prime Minister Trudeau are up slightly from our reading in April, with 49% expressing a positive view and 30% negative. New Conservative leader Andrew Scheer is 20% positive, 22% negative.
One of the reasons for the relatively strong standing of the government is that Canadians have sensed that the economy is picking up steam. Today, a substantial majority (68%) say the economy is growing, easily the strongest number we have seen since the last federal election.
Majorities in every province including Alberta say the economy is growing. Positive evaluations about the economy are highest in Ontario and Quebec (72%) followed by BC (69%). Generationally, Boomers and those in the Silent generation are most positive, but a majority in every generation feels the Canadian economy is growing.
We also find broadly positive perceptions about the economy across income groups and among community types (urban, suburban, and rural). Most striking, however, is the strong sense of growth in Canada’s three largest urban centres.
It is also worth noting is that Conservative voters are not particularly unhappy with the economy right now, with 62% saying the economy is growing and 36% saying it is shrinking.
When we ask about the economic outlook six months from now we find that most of those who feel the economy is currently growing also feel that it will continue to grow or improve. Among those who think the economy is growing, almost no one expects it to begin shrinking in the next six months; among those who think the economy is in recession, just over a third expect conditions to worsen.
UPSHOT
According to Bruce Anderson:
“In our next release, we’ll examine reactions to a series of issues including NAFTA renegotiation, the Khadr settlement, and the government’s approach on climate change.
What these initial numbers show is that many people are feeling better about current economic conditions and are not showing any rise in fatigue with or frustration with the federal government. If anything, the government’s political prospects have strengthened a bit, as both the Conservatives and NDP seem to be struggling to connect with Quebec voters.
For the Conservatives, the generation gap remains a critical strategic dilemma: the policy mix that might animate older conservatives will disqualify the party from consideration among many younger Canadians.”
According to David Coletto:
“Despite a series of difficult decisions by the federal government, we find little evidence that Canadians feel any worse about the government today than they did in May. The government’s approval rating is up slightly, its share of the vote remains stronger than it received at the last election, and most Canadians are feeling good about their current and future economic prospects. The Liberal Party’s electoral coalition of young, urban and suburban middle-class voters, new Canadians plus well-educated Boomers remains intact.
These results remind us that we are in a new era of Canadian politics.
Not only do the distractions to the south attract an oversized share of Canadians’ attention but Prime Minister Trudeau’s approach and tone remain a sharp contrast to that of President Trump. In such an environment, the public assessments of the Prime Minister and his government are as much a function of their own performance than that of how it compares to Trump’s south of the border.
Very few Canadians are looking for a Canadian version of Trump or even Trump-lite. So, the choice for Conservative politicians is how to criticize this government’s fairly popular agenda, distance itself from the Trump administration, while at the same time offering a positive alternative to Trudeau and his team. So far, even in the direct “aftermath” of the decision to settle with Omar Khadr, we find little evidence of a shift in public affinity for the PM or the federal government.”
METHODOLOGY
Our survey was conducted online with 2,036 Canadians aged 18 and over from July 14 to 18, 2017 2017. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians.
The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 2,036 is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
ABACUS DATA INC.
We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value-added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, Ph.D.
DETAILED TABLES
If a federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for in your constituency?
Welcome to our new series The Millennial Vote. In this series we will look at how Millennials are voting in elections around the world. Today we will be looking at the UK general election which took place on June 8th, 2017.
Some context, this “snap” election was called by Conservative Party Leader, Theresa May and ratified by Parliament on the 19th of April, 2017.
At the same time the Conservatives held a small majority of seats in the House of Commons. Brexit, the British secession from the European Union had left the Party divided between the “Remainers” and the “Leavers”. The forthcoming EU negotiations were feared by many as the straw that would break the camel’s back. Ms. May knew that an election would provide an influx of new pro-Brexit MPs which would shore up the Party and ward off the specter of schism. Coincidentally, the Conservative’s main opposition, the Labour Party were about as popular as smallpox, polling nearly 10 points below the Tories. Looking at the landscape and seeing the proverbial magic bullet, Ms. May called for a general election citing the need for a stronger mandate to negotiating Brexit.
Well, 49 days later, 32 million votes cast, a no-show leader and an absolutely stellar campaign video later; the Conservatives were reduced to a minority government, Labour picked up 32 seats (Telegraph: 2017) and the Lib Dems…well despite the public endorsements galore, they still managed to hold on to the cusp of irrelevance (much like the Toronto Maple Leafs, “don’t worry boys we’re in a restructuring year, next year it’s the Cup”).
Now enters the question, what happened? How was a 10 point plus Conservative lead whittled away to a 2 point popularity gap? The answer: Millennials. Or at least that is what the exit polls suggest. According to the Lord Ashcroft Exit Poll, Millennials overwhelmingly voted Labour. Historically, it is said that young people tend to vote for parties that lean to the left end of the political spectrum while the older people tend to vote more conservatively. This colloquialism is corroborated by new research published by the British Election study.
Terrific, case closed, demographics for the win! Millennials (in part because of their age) tend to vote left and since this election contained the largest number of Millennials than has ever been before (UK Census: 2012), Labour would naturally have a bump in the polls.
Brexit holds a special significance to Millennials. Many credit the “Remain” side’s failure due, in part, to the under participation of young people at the polls. Only 36% of eligible Millennials cast a ballot in the Brexit referendum despite being one of the most vocal “Remain” segments and to many UK Millennials this is worn as a badge of anger and shame. When the snap election was called, many Millennials began to see it as an opportunity to retaliate against the Party that they perceived as the harbingers of Britain’s secession. Labour actively campaigned against Brexit during the referendum thus there was the natural link between them and the “remain” vote. Additionally Labour specifically targeted Millennials in their campaign messaging. From their position on Brexit to their Millennial targeted campaign ads; Labour was the Party best positioned to capitalize on the wave of disgruntled Millennials.
However, as seen in a recent Ipsos-MORI poll Britons indicated that their top five issues this election were (1) Brexit, (2) Healthcare, (3) The economy, (4) Education, and (5) Asylum and immigration. Of those issues the public trusted that the Tories were the best to handle all save only healthcare. Both young and old trusted May’s Conservatives along traditional left-right issues, then why the loss of support? This brings into question whether or not traditional left-right issues were relevant to Millennials during this election. Dr. Jonathan Mellon form Nuffield College, Oxford is one who believes that traditional left-right issues are losing their sway on voters’ decision making processes, “If you look back to the 1960s about 13% of people would be willing to change who they voted for. Now, looking back at 2015 [last UK general election] that number has grown to nearly 40%…” (BBC: 2017). He is one of many researchers that see the electorate as becoming more issues based rather than self-identifying as one political stripe.
Bringing this into our calculus, we can make greater sense from the election results. Brexit was an issue that cut across the left-right divide and was perhaps THE central issue of the election; it definitely was for May.
Brexit holds a special significance to Millennials. Many credit the “Remain” side’s failure due, in part, to the under participation of young people at the polls. Only 36% of eligible Millennials cast a ballot in the Brexit referendum despite being one of the most vocal “Remain” segments and to many UK Millennials this is worn as a badge of anger and shame. When the snap election was called, many Millennials began to see it as an opportunity to retaliate against the Party that they perceived as the harbingers of Britain’s secession. Labour actively campaigned against Brexit during the referendum thus there was the natural link between them and the “remain” vote. Additionally Labour specifically targeted Millennials in their campaign messaging. From their position on Brexit to their Millennial targeted campaign ads; Labour was the Party best positioned to capitalize on the wave of disgruntled Millennials looking for revenge after Brexit.
In sum, Millennials, and some pretty terrible political gaffes, brought us to this hung parliament. Despite agreeing that the Tories were the best choice on traditional left-right issues Millennials swung over to Labour en masse principally over shared views on Brexit. Wanting that sweet revenge, more Millennials than anticipated came out to vote and weakened the Tory support bringing about a stronger Labour Party.
Now, Millennials are a fickled bunch and it is to be seen if they are to be the bloc of which Labour will build its house. Or, the temporary wave they ride in the turbulent sea of public opinion. What are your thoughts? Do you agree with our analysis? Share your thoughts on our Facebook and Twitter.
Would you like to know more about the Millennials voter? Contact us to discover our full range of research and analytics services.
The Xennial [Zen-ee-al]. You might have thought that us stats guys were busy recalibrating our regression models after Brexit and Donald Trump’s audacious electoral win—speaking of which, please consider donating to our crowd funder to aid broken and out-of-work statisticians 2016 has so crassly left washed upon the melancholic shores of societal dejection, they need you now more than ever – ha! You obviously underestimate the industrial statistical complex! So, as the ink dries on your Millennial recruitment plan and your organizational restructuring, tear it up, as now we present to you the Xennial!
Yes, that generation that’s not quite Generation X but not really a Millennial either. How can you spot the difference? Here’s a quick test to find out. Answer the following questions:
Did you actually watch Friends season 1 on the television (not Netflix)?
Finish this sentence, “Captain Planet he’s our _____________”
When you hear the letters “ICQ” does a rush of nostalgia and teen angst come over you?
If you answered:
Yes
No
Hero
Yes
You are a Xennial!
But enough of this Buzzfeed generational postulating, let’s get down to the facts.
The concept of Xennial comes from Australian academic Dan Woodman, Associate Professor of Sociology at The University of Melbourne. Xennials are the micro generation born between 1977 and 1983. They are characterized as having the cynicism associated with Generation X as well as the drive and optimism of the Millennial generation. They grew up in an analog world but were young enough to grab hold of the digital revolution and navigate it but are not as comfortable with technology as Millennials are. Woodman remarks, that it was a particularly unique experience. “You [Xennials] have a childhood, youth and adolescence free of having to worry about social media posts and mobile phones. It was a time when we had to organise to catch up with our friends on the weekends using the landline, and actually pick a time and a place and turn up there.” This makes the Xennial generation unique as they do not expect the hand-holding that has come to define the Millennial generation yet they are more than willing to voice their opinion in a team meeting unlike Gen Xers. This could represent an interesting niche in the world of business. As middle managers they can more easily relate to Gen X and Boomer’s analog-isms while being able to communicate with the narcissistic, technophile Millennials.
As of the last Census (2016) there were 3 207 570 Xennials in Canada which represents approximately 9% of the Canadian population. Xennial couples on average make $97 510 as compared to the general Canadian couple at $86 410 (Stats Can: 2016). Xennial singles also perform better than the average Canadian single making $40 570 as compared to $27 690 (Stats Can: 2016). This is a generation that has buying power and inhabits a unique seat in the generational timeline understanding both the old analog world and the fast-paced digital world of the future. Traditional Gen X and Millennial advertising tends not to work on them so advertisers both political and commercial will need to pivot accordingly. Xennials know that they are different thus communications which highlight this would resonate with them.
Oh, and here’s one more piece of nostalgia for you…click here
Want to know more about Canadian Millennials Xennials? Contact us to find out how we can help your organization succeed in the Xennial (and Millennial) Marketplace.
For the last few years, there have been clear signals that Canada’s newspaper industry is struggling and some newspapers may end up in bankruptcy. In our most recent survey, we asked a few questions to get a sense of how people are feeling about this. Here’s what we found:
Just under half (44%) live in a community served by a single daily. 32% don’t have a daily, and 24% have more than one to choose from.
Fully 86% believe they would still be able to get the news they need if their daily newspaper went out of business. Only 14% felt they would not. Consumers’ confidence that they would manage to get the news they need – was widespread in every region, among all age groups, both genders, urban and rural dwellers, homeowners and renters, and supporters of all three major parties. Even among those who only have one newspaper in their community, 84% think they would still be able to get the news they feel they need.
Reactions were mixed on whether “the federal government has a responsibility to do something to make sure there are strong local media serving communities across Canada”. A sizeable minority (44%) see a responsibility to do something, but most (56%) say “this is not an area where government should get involved”. Millennials (51%) were more likely to want some government action compared to Boomers (38%) but opinion is clearly split no matter what the age group. Opinion on government intervention is a bit different depending on political affiliation. NDP voters are evenly split (51%-49% in favour of action), Conservatives opposed (66%-34%) and Liberals in between, but leaning laissez faire (55%-45%). Albertans were more likely to oppose federal government intervention, and Quebecers more likely to support it, but views were fairly similar across the country, including in the largest cities. Those with only one newspaper were just as likely to oppose government intervention as those served by more than one newspaper.
UPSHOT
According to Bruce Anderson: “Newspaper bankruptcies, should they occur, may have a more severe impact on the amount and the quality of information than Canadians imagine will be the case.
Because people consume information using a variety of digital platforms, they may not be as aware as used to be the case of the sources of their news, and the important role of local newspapers in newsgathering. It’s also possible that they believe that different media outlets will fill in the gaps that would occur with newspaper failures, using different business models.
The biggest takeaway thought is that many people seem to shrug at what could be seismic events in the history of Canadian newspapers. On the question of whether government should act, people seem a little bit more concerned about what could go wrong with government intervention, rather than demanding some sort of solution.”
METHODOLOGY
Our survey was conducted online with 1,518 Canadians aged 18 and over from June 2 to 5, 2017. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians.
The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 1,518 is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
ABACUS DATA INC.
We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value-added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, Ph.D.
Following President Trump’s trip to the Middle East and Europe, we decided to ask Canadians how they were feeling about the new President, a little over 100 days into his term in office.
Here’s what we found:
Very few (10%) think Mr. Trump represented America well at the G7 meeting, and a large majority (77%) said his approach reflected poorly on his country. Remarkably, one in every two people thinks represented America “very poorly”. Boomers and Millenials agree. Albertans and Quebecers saw it the same way. This was not only a view held by those on the left — the majority of Conservative voters (58%) think he did a poor job too.
As of today, 39% think Donald Trump is the worst President in US history. Another 29% say he is “one of the worst”. Only 10% think he’s average. One in 50 people in Canada thinks he’s the best President ever.
We also asked people to assess the impact of President Trump. On every item measured, two-thirds or more think his impact is for the worse. He’s seen as most harmful to the environment, world stability, and the image of America. But most also think he’s doing harm to the economy of his country (and ours) and to the standard of living of American citizens.
bad for the environment (85%)
bad for America’s image in the world (85%)
bad for peace and stability in the world (83%).
bad for Canada’s economy (79%)
bad for the standard of living of the average American (71%)
bad for America’s economy (64%)
Given forced choice descriptors to help paint a portrait of President Trump, more than 80% of Canadians see the US President as arrogant, mean, unethical, thoughtless, undisciplined, and someone with bad values. Large majorities see him as dumb, unprincipled, ignorant and dishonest.
While opinions of President Trump are divided within America, there’s a fair bit of consistency when it comes to the views of Canadians. Liberal Party supporters are more critical, but more than two-thirds of Conservative voters see the US President as rude, mean, unethical, thoughtless, and undisciplined. Most also think he’s ignorant, dishonest, unprincipled and has bad values.
Women tend to be more critical than men, but the differences are relatively modest. And Baby Boomers have almost exactly the same harsh view of the US President as do Millenials.
UPSHOT
According to Bruce Anderson: “It’s common for Canadians to have tepid feelings for Republican Presidents. But these numbers go far beyond any norms I can recall. They reveal profound dismay about the character and personal attributes of Mr. Trump as well as fear that he is causing harm to the world, to the interests of Canadians, and to the very people who elected him. American polls reveal that Mr. Trump has found record levels of disapproval at this stage of a new Presidency. In Canada, if people were willing to give Mr. Trump some benefit of the doubt, that attitude has been dissipating quickly.
According to David Coletto: “Not sure there’s any more I can add that these numbers don’t say themselves. Donald Trump is not just personally disliked by the vast majority of Canadians, but few of us think his policies are doing any good for anyone in Canada, the United States, or the world. It’s not just that we don’t like what he’s doing; we just don’t like him.”
METHODOLOGY
Our survey was conducted online with 1,518 Canadians aged 18 and over from June 2 to 5, 2017. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians.
The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 1,518 is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
ABACUS DATA INC.
We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value-added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, Ph.D.
Canada has been facing experience significant floods in recent years, with corresponding increases in the relief costs borne by governments, and rising financial pressures on insurers and the insured.
In our latest poll, we asked whether people felt this type of weather related emergency is caused by climate change.
Three out of four (76%) people think it’s likely or certain than that climate change is the cause, compared to only 24% who doubt that fact. Alberta is the least convinced province, but even there, 58% believe these disasters are related to climate change.
Liberal voters are most convinced of the connection, at 87%, followed by NDP voters (82%). Conservative voters are split: 53% believe climate change is involved, 48% think it unlikely.
The belief that these floods are caused by climate change has a direct and clear relationship with how people feel about the value of the Paris Climate Accord:
• Those who think the floods are caused by climate change are 93% in favour of Canada staying in the Paris Accord.
• Event those who think the relationship is “unlikely” are mostly (73%) of the view that Canada should remain committed to Paris.
• Only the smaller group who feel climate change is “very unlikely” or “certainly not” responsible for these events believe Canada should exit the Paris Accord.
UPSHOT
According to Bruce Anderson: “Most Canadians support taking more action on climate change and do so for a variety of reasons.
Many feel a moral imperative to do right by future generations. Plenty feel there is an economic opportunity in making a transition to a cleaner energy economy.
However, many Canadians have also come to believe that the risks and costs of climate change are being felt today – and are not just problems that might happen, some years down the road.
This is changing the political math surrounding the climate change issue.
It’s harder for opponents of climate action to make the case that doing more is unaffordable when people see real and mounting costs associated with the climate problem already.
At the same time, advocates of action can make the case that costs are already rising quickly, and action is financially prudent, not risky. For some, rising insurance or clean up costs may seem more disruptive than pricing carbon.”
METHODOLOGY
Our survey was conducted online with 1,518 Canadians aged 18 and over from June 2 to 5, 2017. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians.
The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 1,518 is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
ABACUS DATA INC.
We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value-added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, Ph.D.
The vast majority of Canadians (84%) say President Donald Trump made the wrong call in exiting the Paris Climate Change Accord, and exactly the same number say Canada should remain committed to the deal.
Unusually, these views cross partisan lines.
Even a majority of Canadian Conservative voters, who have generally been opposed to measures to fight climate change, are convinced that Trump’s decision was unwise (61%) and that Canada should stay in the deal (62%).
A large part of the reason why people support climate action is to prevent environmental calamities and to do the right thing by future generations. But increasingly, our research is revealing that more and more people see a shift from non-renewable fossil fuel energy as part of a sound economic strategy for the future.
In this survey, by a margin of 3 to 1 Canadians say they think the economies in the world that do the best in the future will be those that shift to renewable or cleaner energy, rather than those who use lower-cost fossil fuels for as long as possible.
This view is even held by a small majority (53%) of Conservative voters and a substantial majority of people living in Alberta and Saskatchewan.
UPSHOT
According to Bruce Anderson: “Donald Trump, while intending to do the opposite, has possibly done more to galvanize support for climate action than his predecessors in the White House.
Mr. Trump is deeply unpopular in Canada (we’ll have a release on this later this week) and his arguments against the Paris Accord (it’s too costly for America, we need to use more coal, etc.) are probably helping clarify for people what side of this argument they don’t want to be on.
This week in Parliament, only days after Mr. Trump’s announcement, Canada’s Conservative Party reversed field and voted in support of the Paris Accord, for the first time. As incoming leader Andrew Scheer had previously voted against the Accord, it’s not a stretch to believe that the fact and the tone of Mr. Trump’s leadership made it even more uncomfortable for the Conservatives to stand outside the global mood in support of the Accord.
But possibly the most important finding in this survey is the growing feeling among Canadians, including many Conservatives and Albertans, that an energy transition is not only good for the environment but probably sensible economic strategy too.
According to David Coletto: “There are few Donald Trump fans in Canada and his decision to pull the United States out of the Paris Accord on climate change did very little to gain new ones. The overwhelming majority in Canada think it was a bad decision and a similar number think Canada to should press ahead and remain committed to the Accord.
As Bruce said, Trump probably did more to mobilize action for action on climate change in opposing the Accord than any international leader could have done arguing in favour of it.
In Canada, support for our government to press ahead is broad and deep. The audience for political leaders who doubt climate change is happening is small (and shrinking).
Trump fashions himself a master of deal making, but there’s little evidence that his idea of renegotiation with the rest of the world is taking root.”
Listen to a quick audio briefing on the results here:
METHODOLOGY
Our survey was conducted online with 1,518 Canadians aged 18 and over from June 2 to 5, 2017. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians.
The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 1,518 is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
ABACUS DATA INC.
We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value-added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, Ph.D.
