The Rising Political Power of Millennials

Happy Millennial Month! For the month of April Abacus is going to be sharing our insights on the Millennial generation. Every day there will be new content for you to view, to help you understand Canada’s most influential generation. This all comes on the heels of our syndicated Canadian Millennials Report, the largest re-occurring survey of Millennials in Canada. For more information on the Canadian Millennials Report and for the latest news of our research on Millennials visit Abacus Millennials, our hub for all things Millennial.

Millennials are everywhere. From the TV to magazines, to your favourite news website you can’t go anywhere without hearing something about my generation. Which frankly is understandable given the impact we’re having on pretty much everything.

Consider this, in2006, the top five most valued publicly traded companies in the world were ExxonMobil, GE, Microsoft, Citigroup, and British Petroleum. Today they are Apple, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Facebook. While technological change has affected everyone, regardless of their generation, the rapid rise of brands like Google, Amazon, and Facebook occurred in large measure to the corresponding emergence of Millennials as North America and Europe’s largest consumer group.

But beyond the disruption in the consumer market, a story less often told is the impact this generation is having on politics and public affairs in countries around the world, including Canada.

More Millennials are now eligible to vote in Canada than baby boomers. Justin Trudeau is the oldest of the three major party leaders 46, and youth engagement in politics is on the rise. We are experiencing a youthquake right before our eyes.

Ask most people about youth political participation and they will say young people don’t vote.

But in the 2015 Canadian federal election, youth voter turnout skyrocketed by 20 percentage points and because the Liberals captured the largest share of these new voters, Millennials helped turn what looked like a fragile Liberal minority government into a stable Liberal majority government. Considering this, it was no great wonder that Prime Minister Trudeau appointed himself Minister of Youth following the election: young people were critical to his win.

The same story is repeating itself in other democracies around the world. In the last UK general election, we saw the most lopsided generational vote in British History. According to the British Election Study, 49% and 55% of Millennial men and women respectively voted Labour while only 28% and 27% voted Conservative. While youth voter turnout was only up slightly, the one-sided polarization shattered Theresa May’s hopes for a substantial majority government. The millions of young Brits who voted for Jeremy Corbin and the Labour Party left the Conservative Prime Minister with an unstable minority in a hung parliament. In Italy, young voters swarmed the polls and made the country’s anti-establishment Five Star Movement the largest party in its parliament. And let us not forget that it was the decisive power of Millennials that lofted Barack Obama to power back in 2008. Millennials were also critical to Bernie Sanders’ movement, and the defeat of Hillary Clinton to Donald Trump (by their lack in participation).

There are about 9.5 million of us in Canada – we have the power to shift markets, pick winners and losers, and disrupt the status quo. My advice to all organizations advocating for policy change with government decision makers at all levels is simple: don’t ignore the awakening of youth political engagement and the millions of Millennials behind it. Embrace them, understand them, and find a way to align your issues with their concerns and broader values.

Who are the Millennials?

Born between 1980 and 2000 and raised around the turn of the millennium, Millennials or members of Generation Y are different from other generations for two primary reasons: how we were raised and the role of technology in our lives.

The starting point is our parents most Millennials are the children of Baby Boomers. This simple fact explains so much of the way they think and behave. We were raised to believe we are special, the world is ours for the taking. We grew up in a world of positive-reinforcement, helicopter parenting, and constant feedback.

Millennials are also digital natives. We grew up with technology and have made it a central part of our lives. To the 94% of millennials who own a smart phone, that device is our most trusted assistant. It’s our bank, our travel agent, our newspaper, our telephone, our music player, and our weather person. That device lets us watch the video content we crave, order food, and get us from one place to the next (by using the Uber app in many cities).
And to the 85% of Canadian Millennials who check Facebook at least once a day, social media is how we stay connected, find out what’s happening in the world, and increasingly the way we learn about and connect with brands.

The combination of social media and mobile technology has also created a perfect-storm of connectivity that changes the way Millennials consume and process media and news content; source credibility is being steadily overtaken and trumped by interesting content of a diverse variety and range. We have moved from a world where people actively seeked out news and information to a passive one, where the information we consume is delivered to pre-curated news feeds, isolated from people, perspectives, and ideas outside of our networks.

So, what does this mean for how you engage the public and design your advocacy strategies with government?
Here’s a few tips:
1. Recognize that Millennials are a powerful force that is reshaping political life at all levels of government.
2. Learn and understand what we care about and what priorities are shaping our thinking. The top issues for Millennials in Canada are affordable housing, jobs, affordability of post-secondary education, and healthcare. We are insecure about our future and a growing number feel that our generation won’t be as well off as the ones that came before us.
3. Tell your story in an authentic and engaging way. To bring Millennials along, you need to have a compelling story that is emotional, connects with our priorities, and calls us to action. Remember, we don’t just do something because it’s what we should do or because it’s always been done a certain way. We need to be asked.

Businesses and organizations that succeed over the next decades will be the ones who embraced change and best understood my generation. In the next few years, Amazon could become the first trillion dollar company, Netflix viewership may dwarf all Canadian TV networks combined, and we likely see autonomous cars on the road. What is far more certain is that Millennials will dominate our politics for the next 30 years in the same way their parents, the boomers, did for the past 30.

The majority of this data came from the Canadian Millennials Report which is Canada’s largest reoccurring syndicated publication dedicated to understanding the views of Canadian Millennials. We survey 2,000 Millennials twice a year tracking their attitudes over time and their perceptions of current issues.

At Abacus Data we take understanding the next generation seriously. We are the only research and strategy firm that can help your business or organization respond to the unprecedented threat of generational change and technological disruption. If you want to know how your business or organization can succeed in the Millennial Marketplace Contact us to learn about our array of bespoke products and services that can make you an industry leader.

Media

Youthquake? Public attitudes to youth civic engagement in Canada

Canadians believe youth are unprepared to be active civic leaders in their community, but most think they should have more influence on government decisions.

As American youth mobilize and engage to change policy around gun control in the United States, Canadians have doubts about how prepared Canadian youth are to do the same. Seven in ten Canadian adults believe that Canadian youth are unprepared to be civic leaders in their community according to a survey conducted for a coalition of national youth serving agencies.

Overall, 70% feel that young Canadians are not that prepared or not at all prepared to be active civic leaders in their community which we defined as being prepared to vote, become active in the community, and engage with political and community leaders.

And this feeling is shared across demographic and regional groups. Although younger respondents were more likely to think youth are prepared than older respondents, clear majorities in all age groups, regions of the country and both men and women felt this way.

Despite feeling youth may not be prepared to become active civic leaders, there’s a clear sense they don’t have the influence they should on government decision making.

A majority believe that youth have too little influence over the decisions governments make. We asked respondents to rate the amount of influence different groups in Canada have over government decisions. Most feel that wealthy and business people have too much influence while majorities felt that the middle class, young people, seniors, and those in the working class have too little influence.

While we might expect there to be a relationship between one’s age and one’s perception of the influence of different age groups, we do not see one when it comes perceptions about young people’s influence on government decisions.

Older Canadians are as likely as younger ones to feel that youth don’t have enough influence on policy. In contrast, older respondents are more likely than younger respondents to think seniors don’t have enough influence on policy decisions.

WHAT ARE THE BEST WAYS TO PREPARE YOUTH TO BECOME CIVIC LEADERS?

For the most part, Canadians think many solutions will have a big impact on helping to prepare youth to be civic leaders. But the two perceived to have the greatest impact by the most people are: providing youth with more job-ready skills and making education more affordable so students have more free time to get involved in their communities.

Majorities also believed that providing more experiences that allow youth to interact with people from different age groups and backgrounds and providing more opportunities generally would help prepare youth to be civic leaders.

WHAT YOUTH ISSUES SHOULD GOVERNMENTS PRIORITIZE?

When asked, Canadians were most likely to rank the rising cost of living and housing, education and skills development, mental health, and the affordability of post-secondary education as top priorities related to youth for government to address.

Other highly ranked issues included drug and alcohol abuse, bullying, and income inequality and youth poverty.

Among younger respondents (those aged 18 to 29), the ranking of issues looks similar to the overall results with a few exceptions.

Younger Canadians were more likely to rank cost of living and housing and mental health higher than older respondents. They were also more likely to prioritize climate change than older respondents (18% vs. 12%). In contrast, they were less likely to rank education and skills development and drug and alcohol abuse as top priorities for government to address.


UPSHOT

“We may be seeing an awakening of youth engagement around the world and here in Canada. Whether it’s the student marches against gun violence in the United States or increasing youth voter turnout in the UK and Canada, there’s growing evidence that young people are becoming more politically engaged.

Despite this, our polling finds Canadian adults don’t believe youth are as prepared as they should be to become active civic leaders and most feel youth don’t have the influence they should on government decision makers. Most importantly, this view is held by Canadians of all ages, not just youth.

Barriers to youth engagement are clear to the public. The rising cost of post-secondary education means youth need to work more to help pay for it, leaving less time to become politically engaged. The digitally saturated lives of the typical youth also leave them less prepared to engage in traditional advocacy, as many lack confidence and skills in face-to-face communications. Canadians think programs and organizations that give youth these types of skills and free up more of their time will have a big impact on preparing them to engage in the political life of our country.

Youth issues don’t just concern youth. Canadians from all age groups share concerns about the rising cost of living, housing, and education, the growing mental health challenge faced by young people, and skills and education youth require to compete in the global economy. Canadians think these should be the priorities for governments.

Our political leaders are starting to recognize the political power of young Canadians and the issues that matter to them and their families. As more youth are engaged and asked to participate, their influence will continue to grow.”

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted online with 2,000 Canadians aged 18 and over from February 16th to 25th, 2018. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABOUT THE SPONSORS OF THIS RESEARCH

A coalition of Canada’s leading youth-serving organizations commissioned this research. Participating organizations are:

ABACUS DATA INC.

Abacus Data is the only firm in Canada that helps organizations deal with the unprecedented threat of generational change and technological disruption.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value-added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, Ph.D.

MediaPolls

Is BC really polarized over Kinder Morgan Trans Mountain?

The Kinder Morgan pipeline expansion project is one of the most hotly debated issues in Canadian politics in years. It would be easy to surmise that public opinion is deeply divided, and firmly entrenched. But our most recent poll of BC adults on this topic tells a somewhat different tale.

We tested 8 different arguments that are made by proponents and opponents of the project, and in each case, asked our respondents whether the argument was persuasive or not. This allowed us to see how polarized the debate had become – or not.

The results paint a picture where many people feel personally conflicted – concerned about spills but also aware of the economic benefits for Canada, worried about the prospect of increasing the use of fossil fuels but also hesitant to see a precedent where one province could stymie the economic opportunity of a neighboring province.

Here are the highlights of our polling:

• 45% have firm opinions, evenly split between support (23%) oppose (22%)
• 35% have a leaning: more likely to lean support (22%) than oppose (13%).
• 20% are completely neutral or undecided

When asked how persuasive 8 different arguments were (4 supportive/4 opposing), similiar proportions of respondents felt all arguments were persuasive, a range which went from 46% to 63%.

• The argument that persuades the most people (63%) is that the pipeline expansion would greatly increase the risk of an oil spill. But essentially the same number (61%) found persuasive the argument that “all provinces benefit from Canada’s oil and would benefit from this project going ahead.

• While 59% found persuasive the argument that “allowing this pipeline to go ahead means encouraging the use of fossil fuels which contribute to climate change”, almost as many (51%) felt that “stopping this pipeline could end up polarizing the country and leading to a reduction in the commitment to fight climate change”

• While 46% found persuasive the argument that “the risks for BC are great, but there is no economic benefit for BC”, even more found themselves persuaded by the argument “it’s a bad precedent for one province to be able to stop something so important to the economy of a neighboring province. (56%)

• Essentially the same number found persuasive the argument that “the project was carefully reviewed and approved” (52%) process as felt the same way about the argument that “the process was inadequate, flawed and can’t be trusted”(50%).

When we isolate only those who lean to one side of the debate or are undecided, we see the same trends. Many feel the arguments for and against the pipeline are persuasive.

Looking deeper under the surface of these reactions reveals that many people feel torn and exhibit mixed feelings, feeling that arguments both in favour and opposed to the project are persuasive. This is far from entrenched polarization, and instead reveals a population which understands that there is no easy choice to be made when it comes to this project.

Here’s how underlying patterns reveal that having “mixed opinions” is quite common:

Among the 62% who find persuasive the argument that the “project will greatly increase the risk of an oil spill”:

• More than half (59%) also find the argument that “stopping this pipeline could end up polarizing the country and lead to a reduction in the commitment to fight climate change” is persuasive.
• 55% find it persuasive that it’s “a bad precedent for one province to oppose something so important to the economy of a neighboring province”.
• 52% are persuaded by the argument that “all provinces benefit from Canada’s oil and gas and would benefit from this project going ahead”
• 47% find persuasive that “the project was carefully reviewed and approved”.

Among the 60% who find the argument “all provinces benefit from Canada’s oil and gas and would benefit from this project going ahead” persuasive:

• 50% say it’s persuasive that “the project will greatly increase the risk of an oil spill”
• 50% say they see the argument that “the process was inadequate, flawed and can’t be trusted” to be persuasive
• 52% say “allowing the pipeline to go ahead means encouraging the use of fossil fuels which contributes to climate change” is a persuasive argument.

Among the 59% who say it’s persuasive that allowing this pipeline to go ahead means “encouraging the use of fossil fuels which contribute to climate change”. Among this group:

• 54% find it persuasive that “it’s a bad precedent for one province to support something so important to the economy of a neighboring province
• 57% find it persuasive that stopping this pipeline could end up polarizing the country and lead to a reduction in the commitment to fight climate change.

While partisan leaders often feel compelled to take hard positions and campaign aggressively against the counter-argument to theirs, our polling shows that this carries risk. Between 40%-50% of BC NDP supporters find arguments in favour of the pipeline persuasive – and 32%-50% of BC Liberal voters find arguments against the pipeline persuasive.

At the federal level, about a third of federal Conservative voters feel arguments against the pipeline are persuasive while similar proportions of federal NDP voters find arguments in favour of Trans Mountain to be persuasive.

Federal Liberal voters in BC hold the most truly mixed views, underscoring the fact that Liberal voters typically do straddle the pragmatic centre of the spectrum.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “Advocates for and against this project may feel that the public is rigid, dug in, and now largely unresponsive to any argument. But the truth is, there is a lot of soft opinion, a lot of people have heard both sides of the argument and many believe that both opponents and supporters have good points to make.

In this sort of situation people will tend to tune out rhetoric which sounds overly simplistic and one-sided. They instead will respond better to stakeholders who acknowledge that a decision like this isn’t easy, and involves a willingness to compromise or to have something that you care about put at risk.

As much as some pro-pipeline advocates want to hear politicians going to battle with opponents, voters would probably prefer that their politicians reduce rather than increase the drama.

Soft opponents of this project are probably more likely to accept it’s approval when they hear that those making the decision have listened to and paid respect to the counter-arguments, especially those having to do with spills and climate change.”

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 900 BC residents aged 18 and over from February 26 to March 6, 2018. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.3%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched BC’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABACUS DATA INC.

Abacus Data is the only firm in Canada that helps organizations deal with the unprecedented threat of generational change and technological disruption.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value-added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, Ph.D.

MediaPolls

Liberal support sags as PM’s image softens. His India trip hurt.

The results of our latest survey (February 23rd to March 4th, sample of 4,023 across Canada) reveals that the Liberal Party has seen its support drop to 36%, the lowest we have measured since the election in 2015. The Conservatives are close behind with 33% followed by the NDP with 18%. Most of the slippage for the Liberals is centred in Ontario, where the Liberals and Conservatives are basically tied (39% CPC/38% LPC).

Satisfaction with the direction of the country, the performance of the government and impressions of Justin Trudeau have all declined. For the first time since before he was elected, as many people have a negative view of the Prime Minister as have a positive view.

Impressions of Andrew Scheer and Jagmeet Singh have not really changed during this period, suggesting that the challenges the Liberals see in these numbers are largely of their own making.

Performance assessments of Mr. Trudeau suggest that his trip to India had a lot more to do with the decline in support than the recent budget. Assessments of his handling of the economy, taxpayers’ money, and debt/deficits, are little changed from October 2017. However, his rating for how he has represented Canada internationally has dropped 16 points during that same time.


UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “With less than two years to the next election, these numbers show that the Liberals will need to work hard to earn a second mandate. Of the various mishaps and mistakes that often occur for any government, few have had much impact on feelings about the Prime Minister, until now. There seems little doubt that reactions to his India trip have a lot to do with these numbers – probably coupled with concerns that we have seen in our research about the cost of living relative to wage growth. The message to the government is about sticking to the knitting – being focused on the real life economic challenges that mainstream Canadian voters experience.

According to David Coletto:“For the first time since the 2015 election, as many Canadians have a negative impression of the Prime Minister as have a positive impression. Perceptions about this ability to represent Canada internationally are down across the board and these perceptions are strongly correlated with one’s view of Mr. Trudeau.

We don’t have the appropriate data to confirm which aspects of his trip to India may have been most harmful to his image, but it’s likely that any combination of the images and videos of his appearances, process questions about invites to certain individuals, or the perception that he may have been snubbed by Indian leaders, could have left Canadians feeling discomforted. For some, the mocking Mr. Trudeau received from media and comedians clashed with their perceptions of him, making his actions hard to defend and in conflict with the pride they felt in Canada being noticed again on the world stage. The most powerful moments in shifting impressions are those that seem indefensible.

This may be a momentary shift in opinions or it could be the start of a longer-term shift in attitudes. Either way, the trip had a negative impact on the PM’s image which is novel in the life of this government.”

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted online with 4,023 Canadians aged 18 and over, from February 23th to March 4th, 2018. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABACUS DATA INC.

Abacus Data is the only firm in Canada that helps organizations deal with the unprecedented threat of generational change and technological disruption.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value-added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, Ph.D.

Canadian PoliticsMediaPolls

The Path to 2019: Women and the Liberal Vote

Tomorrow, Finance Minister Bill Morneau will deliver the Liberal government’s third budget. It is reportedly going to focus on improving the economic success of women and promoting gender equality.

There are important policy reasons for this focus. But political ones as well.

Consider these three stats:

Women made up 52.4% of the electorate in 2015. Over 9.2 million Canadian women voted in the last federal election.

According to our 2015 post-election survey, the Liberals won by 17-points among women compared with 6-points among men.

Perhaps more important, their gap over the Conservatives was even larger among younger women. In 2015, they were competing against the NDP among women under 45 and with the Conservatives among women 45 and over.

Don’t underestimate the Liberal Party and Prime Minister Trudeau’s connection to this group and the government’s efforts to pursue a social and economic agenda targeting them.  This data suggests why efforts to mobilize turnout and protect share from the NDP and Conservatives are critically important for Liberal re-election in 2019.

Canadian PoliticsMediaPolls

Millennial Nests and Golden Eggs: How Millennials living with parents are affecting the housing market

So, you’re a NOT-SO-empty-nester. Your Millennial went out, got an education and came back with a degree, a lot of debt, and no job. Your experience is not in isolation, indeed 1 in 3 Canadian households are experiencing this exact scenario today. Let’s be clear, no one in your household is a huge fan of the situation. At first it was novel, little Jonny came back from his college or university career, full of energy and knowledge he was ready to commit towards a well-paying and fulfilling job. Four years on and the energy has waned, the job is not so fulfilling, and the pay…well, Jonny’s glad you decided not to charge him rent.

What the labour market is telling your Millennial that they are probably going to have to re-skill and/or move to find more better paying or more fulfilling work. However, the effect this delayed home ownership or renter-ship is having on the housing market has wider implications which will be witnessed over the next 20 years.

As commented on in their Financial Post column, Dr. Murtaza Haider and Stephen Moranis foresee this delayed exit from the parental home as having two general affects on the housing market. The first, is that it postpones Boomers’ natural inclination to down-size. As Baby Boomers are entering their senior years mobility decreases, incomes become fixed, and a need for a family-sized house is reduced. The third of Boomers that are still hosting an adult child are unable to fulfill this natural inclination which both increases personal financial strain and reduces the number of potential houses on the market which artificially increases the market price. Meanwhile, Millennials are at home because both rental and ownership options are unattainable due to an inflated price and their comparatively low incomes.

Nevertheless, Haider and Moranis believe that Millennials will eventually own homes and when they do, they will have many housing options available to them. The Millennials, nominally, are a smaller generation and while housing supply in urban centres will continue to be highly competitive, prices elsewhere could conceivably fall due to excess supply. The long-term effects of the Millennial nester will play out over the next few decades but for many, home ownership might just be on the horizon of a not-so-distant future.

Consumer BehaviourGenerational Change

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By a 7 to 1 margin, residents of Greater Vancouver want ride sharing services available this year.

Support is consistent across the region and among NDP, Liberal, and Green voters.

Residents living in the Greater Vancouver region are ready for ride sharing services in British Columbia, based on a survey of 546 residents, conducted for Ridesharing for BC over the past week.

Overall, 64% of residents strongly support (31%) or support (32%) having ride sharing services like Uber and Lyft available in BC in 2018. Another 28% accept the idea of the service being introduced. Only 9% are opposed.

Support is broadly based, crossing region, demographic, and political lines:

  • 63% of BC NDP, 67% of BC Liberal, and 68% of BC Green Party voters.
  • Marginally higher in Vancouver (68%) but is also broad in surrounding municipalities (61% in Burnaby, New Westminster, Coquitlam, Port Coquitlam, North Vancouver, and West Vancouver and 59% in Delta, Surrey, Richmond, Langley, White Rock, and Maple Ridge).
  • Support is higher among those under 45 (70%) but opposition among older people is only 13%.

Opposition to making Lyft or Uber available was limited. 10% of those living in municipalities around Vancouver and 6% of those in Vancouver opposed making Uber or Lyft available in BC. Similarly, opposition was limited among BC NDP, BC Green, and BC Liberal voters.

While these would be new services in the region, more than 95% have heard of them, and one in four (23%) have already used Uber or Lyft somewhere else.

One in every two local residents (55%) say they are certain, very likely, or likely to personally try a ride sharing service like Lyft or Uber if available.  Likelihood to use ride sharing is highest among younger people and Vancouver residents.

Residents see several good reasons for having ride sharing available: at the top of the list is affordability and convenience — but many also see it as a sustainability solution, and a help in the fight to limit impaired driving.

We also found broad interest in driving for a ridesharing service. 74% of respondents felt that being able to earn extra money as driver for Uber or Lyft was a good argument to allow ride sharing services to operate in the province.

UPSHOT

“The introduction of ride sharing services like Uber and Lyft is not a controversial idea for residents of the Greater Vancouver area.  Lots of people imagine that they would use these services, and opposition to their introduction is very limited.  People feel that there would be benefits in terms of affordability and convenience and upsides in terms of environmental issues and impaired driving. This doesn’t look like tentative or conditional support – but more like people who are ready for this change to happen in the local marketplace.”

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted online with 546 adult residents of Greater Vancouver from February 5 to 12, 2018. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a sole source

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys.   The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 4.6%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABACUS DATA INC.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value-added insight.  Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, Ph.D.

MediaPolls

The next 10%: Reflections and data on how the Conservatives can grow.

On Friday, I participated in a panel discussion at the Manning Networking Conference in Ottawa. The title of the panel was Spotlight on The Next 10% and we discussed how the federal Conservative Party might grow towards winning the next election in 2019.

In preparing for that panel, I had a quick look at some recent public opinion data Abacus Data collected earlier this year.

In January, we interviewed over 1,450 Canadian adults and asked our core political questions plus a number of other questions meant to understand their broader political attitudes.

And here’s the basis of my analysis:

51% of Canadians are open to voting Conservative. This is the accessible pool of voters available to the Conservative Party. This pool is about the same size as the NDP (50%) and smaller than the Liberal Party’s (56%).

This pool of accessible voters has increased since the 2015 election. In November 2015, only 42% of Canadians said they would consider voting Conservative. Today its about 8 points higher.

At the same time, 26% of Canadians said they would vote Conservative if an election was held at the time of the survey. That’s five points fewer than the Liberals and 11 points more the NDP. 20% overall said they were undecided.

It’s this 25-point gap between those open to voting Conservative and those who would actually vote Conservative that I find interesting. In order to win in 2019, the Conservative will need to find a way to hold their current support base together while finding a way to convert about half of those who are currently open to voting for them but are either committed to another party or undecided. I call these eligible voters potential Conservative supporters.

By comparing those who currently support the party with those potential supporters, we might better understand what the party needs to do and who it needs to attract to grow its support.

Here’s what I see:

Current Conservative supporters are older than the group it needs to convert. Finding a way to engage and connect with Canadians under 45 is not a necessity to win, but failing to convert at least some of them will make it harder to do so. Remember, in 2019 all Millennials will be eligible to vote and they will make up the largest generational cohort in the electorate, Conservatives don’t need to win this group, but they have to do better than they did in 2015.

Potential supporters are more diverse ethnically than current supporters. Only 11% of current Conservative supporters identify as a member of a visible minority or racialized group compared with 25% among its potential support group. Appearing open to diversity and immigration worked well for the party in the past. Since the 2015 election, the Conservatives have not made much ground in growing support among this important and expanding voter group.

Housing affordability is a top issue to many Canadians, especially younger ones looking to enter the market. A third of potential voters are currently renters, almost 9-points more than among Conservative supporters. What is the party’s answer to the affordability crisis in the housing market?

At the same time, potential Conservative supporters are more likely to live in cities than those currently supporting the party. Growing the party’s appeal to urban voters is important if it hopes to expand support. Issues around transit, traffic congestion, affordability and quality of life matter to these potential supporters.

Most Conservative supporters (77%) believe that government is almost always wasteful and inefficient while only 45% of potential supporters feel the same way. Many see a role for government, especially in evening out the inadequacies of the market.

Conservative supporters are split on the impact of immigration on the country but potential supporters are more likely to believe immigrants strengthen the country. Potential supporters are also more likely to feel that diversity is a virtue as opposed to a vice in Canada.

Perhaps where Conservative supporters and potential supporters are split the most are on issues related to the environment and climate change. 69% of potential supporters believe that stricter environmental laws and regulations are worth the cost compared with 49% of Conservative supporters. Likewise, two thirds of potential supporters believe that serious action is needed on climate change, even if it means some things cost more. 47% of Conservative supporters feel the same way.

Social conservatism has its limits. There’s a shrinking audience for political leaders who don’t treat all people equally. As an example, look at the gap in support for schools sanctioning gay-straight alliances.

Finally, when it comes to how both groups feel about political leaders in the country, there’s quite a large gap. While Conservative supporters almost unanimously have a negative view of Prime Minister Trudeau, only 20% of potential supporters feel this way. And while Mr. Scheer is well likely among current Conservative supporters, he remains a largely undefined figured in the minds of those open to voting Conservative.

THE UPSHOT

These results suggest that the Conservative Party does have a path back to power. And it doesn’t mean it has to move completely to the centre and mimic the Liberal Party. I think it means its leaders have to talk about the big questions of our day: equality, climate change, and economic security.

But to do so, a few things likely have to occur.

First, impressions of Mr. Trudeau must change among those open to voting Conservative. Right now, only 20% have a negative view with a majority feeling positive about the Prime Minister. At the same time, Mr. Scheer needs to introduce himself to this group, build a relationship, and demonstrate he’s a viable alternative as Prime Minister.

Second, while there is runway for the Conservatives to appeal to the more conservative and populist elements of the potential supporter group, such a strategy requires converting almost all of those who share views with the majority of Conservative supporters.

In contrast, a route more likely to “widen the tent” may be one in which the party better aligns with these potential supporters on some key issues. It needs to be seen as having a credible plan to deal with climate change. It has to offer an open minded and welcoming attitude to those from more diverse backgrounds and different lifestyles and it needs to offer conservative solutions to those living in cities and among younger Canadians.

Unless the party can appeal more broadly to these groups, the road to majority is tenuous at best.

Canadian PoliticsMediaPolls

NL residents recognize dire circumstances in province; Want political leadership.

Half of NL residents think the province is likely to go bankrupt in the new few years. Most are looking for political leadership to solve the crisis.

There’s a clear sense that something must change or else the outcome will be catastrophic for Newfoundland and Labrador.

That’s the message we heard in a recent survey Abacus Data conducted in Newfoundland and Labrador that explored how residents feel about the future of their province, the challenges it faces today, and the political will needed to turn things around.

The level of anxiety is quite elevated across the province. Almost half feel that life in the province has become worse over the last 10 years, about half describe things in the province as pretty bad or horrible, and only one in four residents are optimistic that things will get better over the next 10 years.

So, what’s driving this anxiousness?

When we ask residents to identify the most important issue facing the province today, a few issues are mentioned more than others. Muskrat Falls, provincial debt, jobs, the economy, cost of living, taxes, and healthcare are mentioned by large numbers of people.

When we ask residents to diagnosis the problems facing Newfoundland and Labrador, majorities point to the provincial deficit and finances, future opportunities for young people in the province, and the cost of living as “very big problems”. In fact, except for the quality of schools, at least three in ten residents felt that all issues were very big problems.

And what’s striking about the results is the level of consensus across different regions, age groups, and partisan leanings. For example, while 62% of NL residents felt the provincial budget deficit and finances were a very big problem for the province – that view was shared most of all by those who voted NDP in 2015 (79%) but was the majority view among PC (64%) and Liberal (57%) voters.

Not surprisingly, younger residents were more likely to feel that the availability of good paying jobs was a very big problem while older residents were more inclined to feel the budget deficit was a very big problem.

PERCEPTIONS ABOUT PROVINCIAL FINANCES

Recently, there were news reports that found the province was on the brink of not being able to pay government employees in 2016. Almost half of residents were aware of this news.

Most striking of all though is that a majority of Newfoundland and Labrador residents think it is likely that the province will go bankrupt in the new few years with 22% thinking it is either very or extremely likely to happen.

And this alarm is not isolated to opposition party supporters. In fact, PC Party voters were the least likely to think the province was likely to go bankrupt (40%) while NDP (65%) and Liberal Party (52%) were more likely to think provincial bankruptcy was likely to happen.

There was more concern among younger residents (those under 45) with 64% feeling the province was likely to go bankrupt.

Next, we asked respondents what would likely happen if the province was on the brink of bankruptcy. Most felt that there would have to be major spending cuts and provincial taxes would have to increase a lot. A majority also felt that the province would find more money to borrow but at very high-interest rates.

Perhaps most interesting was opinions about the likelihood of a federal government bailout of the province. Province-wide 37% felt a bailout was likely compared with 29% who felt it was unlikely to happen. 35% were unsure whether a federal bailout would likely happen or not.

Older residents were more likely to think a bailout was likely than younger residents, while NDP voters (43%) were more likely than Liberal voters (39%) to think it was likely to happen.

NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR IN THE NEXT 20 YEARS

Later in the survey, we asked respondents whether they thought several things should happen and whether those same outcomes are likely to happen.

Overall, we found that people generally want the province to become a tourism leader, they want the fishery to be reformed, they want the province to be a great place to do business and for young people to come establish themselves and they want a balanced budget. Fewer say they want the province to become less dependent on the oil and gas sector although a clear majority (69%) think it definitely or probably should happen in the next 20 years.

But when we ask whether they think these same things will happen, few are optimistic, especially when it comes to balancing the budget and positioning the province as a good place to do business. Most residents feel that the province will be a tourism leader known for great food and cultural experiences but only a minority feel that it will be a good place to do business, to raise a family or work, or attractive to people from around the world. And perhaps most striking is the fact that 78% think that the province will not have a balanced budget in the next 20 years.

Given these challenges and the mood of the province, it should not come as a surprise that 71% of residents feel that things in the province are so bad that they “really have to consider new ways of doing things in the province.” Only a minority are of the view that “people exaggerate the challenges facing Newfoundland and Labrador.”

POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT

The level of anxiety about the province carries over into uncertainty over who should lead it.

When asked how they would vote if a provincial election was held at the time of the survey, almost half of respondents reported being undecided (48%) with 22% saying they would vote Liberal, 18% voting PC, and 12% voting NDP.

These results suggest a highly volatile political environment. Consider that half of past Liberal and NDP supporters say they are undecided about which party they would vote for. 57% of women are undecided (almost 20 points higher than men).

With those undecideds removed, the ballot would be Liberal 41%, PC 34%, and NDP 23%.

UPSHOT

“The public diagnosis of Newfoundland and Labrador’s looming fiscal crisis is clear and broad. So much so that half the public believes that the province is likely to go bankrupt in the next few years and over 70% feel the problems are so severe that they are willing to accept new ways of solving the problem. The public is craving political leadership willing to tackle this unfolding crisis and it appears most of the public is willing to take the bad medicine that will come with curing what ails the province.”

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 600 Newfoundland and Labrador adults conducted between January 8 and 15, 2018. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 600 is +/- 4.1%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Newfoundland and Labrador’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Download the full results 

ABACUS DATA INC.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value-added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, Ph.D.

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