More Expect U.S. to Take Military Action Against North Korea than the Reverse, 84% Say Trump Making Things Worse

A solid majority (63%) of Canadians are following the tensions between North Korea and the US closely.  As of the taking of our latest poll (August 11-15) 43% thought it likely that North Korea would launch a missile at the US, 47% that North Korea would launch missiles at South Korea, but even more felt it was likely (69%) that the US would take military action against North Korea.

When asked what they thought the US should do, the vast majority (86%) of Canadians said the US should “step up efforts to arrive at a diplomatic understanding” while only 14% favoured a preventive first strike by the US.   Conservative, Liberal, and New Democrat voters were all pretty much on the same page about this.

Only 7% have a great deal of confidence in President Trump to handle the situation with North Korea, and 17% say they have “some” confidence.  Three-quarters say they have “not very much” (32%) or none at all (44%).  On this point, most Conservative voters (57%) lack confidence in the US President.

Along the same lines, 84% say they think the US President has made the risk of conflict go up, while only 16% feel he has reduced the risk.

When asked what Canada should do, roughly 8 in 10 say we should advocate for increased diplomatic efforts compared to 21% who say we should tell our US allies we will support them if a conflict occurs.  Two-thirds (64%) of Conservatives favour pushing a diplomatic solution.

If North Korea were to attack South Korea, half (51%) think the US should get involved in defending the South, while 31% are on the fence and 18% would oppose such action. Only 34% think Canada should come to the aid of South Korea in such an eventuality, while 37% take the opposite view and 29% say “maybe, maybe not”.

 UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “The US tensions with North Korea have been drawing a lot of attention among Canadians and many people are of the view that President Trump is making a dangerous situation more dangerous.  The profound lack of confidence in the US President to handle such a critical risk is unusual and another signal of how dismayed most Canadians are at the way that Mr. Trump is approaching his responsibilities.

The fact that Conservatives are not hugely different from Liberal or NDP voters on these questions suggests that the “Trump base” in Canada may be touching a new low, somewhere in the range of 15% (That’s the number of Conservatives who express confidence in the US leader).

In the event that a first strike conflict is initiated by the US, it is hard to imagine, based on these numbers, that Canadians will feel powerfully motivated to support our longstanding ally unless confidence in Mr. Trump improves.”

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 1,500 Canadians aged 18 and over from August 11 to 15, 2017 A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys.   The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 1,500 is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABACUS DATA INC.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value-added insight.  Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, Ph.D.

MediaPolls

Véa: The Millennial Cracker from the World for the World

As Boomer parents can attest, Millennials have always been picky eaters. But now their refined pallets have been infused with the social conscience of a Himalayan Yogi. Meet Véa, the hottest trend in bite-sized crackers since the communion wafer. Véa is the newest creation from the snack giant Mondelēz International, whose other notable products include Oreo cookies, Ritz crackers, and Wheat Thins. These multi-ingredient crisps which include flavours such as Peruvian sweet potato, Greek hummus, and an assortment of Tuscan herbs guarantees that everything in your cracker is organically grown and non-genetically modified.

Now at this point, you might be thinking that (1) Peruvian sweet potato sounds flipping fantastic and (2) you wonder if these new flavours are really going to make much of a splash in an already crowded market. Well, the science tells us…probably. A recent study done by Nielsen Research analysed the flavour offerings provided by current players in the snack crisp market. What they found was that consumers, particularly Millennials, enjoyed chip flavours that were both unique yet familiar. In testing 25 new global flavours they found that chips could be categorized along two axes. The first is uniqueness. Uniqueness describes how much the flavour stands out from others in the category, some of the highest uniqueness scores came from flavours including lamb and curry. However, uniqueness is tempered with the second axis, desirability. Desirability is the measure of the likelihood that a consumer wants to actually buy and eat that flavour. Flavours that won out on this axis included potato-brown sugar, black bean, and (to no one’s surprise) avocado. While consumers appreciate uniqueness they are hesitant to go out and try something completely new, so don’t be expecting Ethiopian styled goat neck flavoured chips anytime soon. Consumers are however, likely to try new flavours that are familiar, especially if they are positioned as healthy alternatives. Here we see Mondelēz treading this thin line; offering new yet familiar flavour options (like sweet potatoes from distant Peru) positioning itself as a hip new healthy alternative.

Chief Growth Officer, Tim Cofer claims that Mondelēz has positioned Véa to appeal to the, “on-the-go, well-being-focused millennial consumer – open to discovery, adventure and authenticity.” Today’s Millennial consumer cares just as much about the story behind their food as they do its taste or presentation and this comes through in Véa’s advertising.

https://youtu.be/UtO_E1a3M-U

Véa’s advertising emphasises the themes of a community, diversity, originality, and healthy living. In one of our previous post about the #selfcare phenomenon, we discussed how Millennials have the highest levels of social connectivity as compared with Boomers and Gen X. Over 85% of Canadian Millennials are on social media for one hour or more every day. The idea of being a part of a larger global community is a concept Millennials have grown up with and their social and information networks regularly span national and ethnic divides. Millennials value authenticity highly and Véa’s brand positioning as a simple ingredient healthy crisp, inspired by ‘the world’ plays very well into that.

Whether Mondelēz’s new foray into the Millennial market will be a success is to be seen. However, their brand is hitting all the right notes to play on Millennial heart strings and if you asked my opinion (the views expressed by the author do not reflect the opinions of Abacus Data or any of its partners) I think the next time you’re at the supermarket you’ll notice a significant number of little beige bags in the carts and baskets of your Millennial shopping compatriots.

Interesting in learning more about how Millennials will affect your business? Contact us, and ask about our Millennial Audit and the other suite of insight tools we offer to keep your organization competitive in the Millennial Marketplace.

Consumer BehaviourGenerational Change

Leave a comment on Véa: The Millennial Cracker from the World for the World

Parties as Brands: How Canadians See the Conservatives, Liberals and NDP

In our latest nationwide survey, we wanted to see what thoughts and images were more associated with Canada’s three largest political brands.  To do this, we offered people a series of 20 forced choices, far from an exhaustive list of possible variables, but enough to observe some powerful differences.

This is the first of a few reports we will release using this data.

In a nutshell, here’s what we found:

— The 10 strongest associations with the Conservative Party were “old fashioned”, “proud of Canada” “oil” “tough on crime” “favour some over others” doesn’t care about you” spends on the wrong things” “elitist”, “does not trust people” and “economically savvy”.

— The 10 strongest for the Liberal Party were: “diplomacy” “treat men and women equally” “proud of Canada” “cares about the environment” “projects positive image of Canada” “young at heart” “future oriented” “individual freedom” “renewable energy” and “hopeful”.

— 8 of 10 strongest for the NDP were the same as for the Liberal Party. The items that were different: the NDP did not have “future oriented” or “young at heart” but instead had “down to earth” and “trust people”.

— Comparing the three parties shows that on “VALUES YOU SHARE” 57% associated this with the Liberals, compared to 52% for the NDP and 46% for the Conservatives.

— Interestingly, on “CARES ABOUT INDIVIDUAL FREEDOM” v “GOVERNMENT LAWS TO RESTRICT FREEDOM”. Quite a few more people associated “freedom” with the Liberals (68%) and the NDP (64%) than the Conservatives (48%)

— When it came to “ECONOMICALLY SAVVY”, the Conservatives (55%) were better positioned than the Liberals (47%) and NDP (39%)

To help isolate the differences between the Conservatives and the Liberals, and the Liberals and the NDP, the following charts are revealing.

— Compared to the Liberals, the Conservatives are seen as more old fashioned, past oriented, militaristic, oil oriented, male oriented, less concerned about the environment, equality, or individual freedom, less inclined to trust people, and tougher on crime. The Liberals are more associated with young at heart, a future orientation, gender equality, equality and freedom more generally, concern for the environment, diplomacy over militarization, and projecting a positive image of Canada.

— Comparing the Liberals and the NDP, unsurprisingly, differences are more muted. The Liberals are seen as somewhat younger at heart, future oriented, while the NDP are seen as a bit more down to earth.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “Party brand images build up over time and are affected by the choices leaders make but also help inform leaders of the choices they need to consider in order to expand their pool of potential voters.  For the Liberals, the numbers provide a reminder of the need to constantly make the case for their economic policies and to avoid suggestions of elitism.  For the NDP, the striking news here is the degree to which the party can be seen as aging and old-fashioned.

For the Conservatives, the findings are clearer and inescapably point to the fact that the things which make their core vote most enthusiastic may often be the things that repel other voters.  On gender equality, the environment and energy, and respect for individual freedoms, the Conservative brand finds itself somewhat isolated from a fair number of voters.

Perhaps the most disconcerting signal for the CPC is the fact that in a world where the future seems to be one of constant change and adaptation, their is party not, for the moment anyway, convincingly forward looking.”

According to David Coletto: “The Liberal brand, in trouble only a few years ago, is today the strongest with more people reflecting positive images onto it. It’s a forward-thinking, youthful, and hopeful party.

In contrast, the Conservative brand is under far more stress. Seven in ten feel it is old fashioned, far more associate it with oil than with renewable energy, and more describe it elitist than the other two major parties. It seems to me the Conservative Party needs to rethink its brand and approach in much the same way the UK Conservatives evolved after 2005 when it failed to beat the Blair led Labour Party for the third consecutive time. This is especially important given the immense generational change occurring in the electorate.

If I’m the NDP, these results point to a party with many brand strengths but few differentiators with its primary competitor, the Liberal Party. How the NDP differentiates itself should be the focus every NDP leadership candidate should consider at it plans how to take on Mr. Trudeau and the Liberals in 2019.

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 2,000 Canadians aged 18 and over from August 4 to 7, 2017. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys.   The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 2,000 is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABACUS DATA INC.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value-added insight.  Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, Ph.D.

MediaPolls

US Government seen as no better than Chinese, Russian governments

Remarkably, Canadians have a worse impression of the Government of the United States than they do of the Government of the People’s Republic of China.

When asked if they have a positive or a negative view of several different governments, here’s what our survey results showed:

  • 72% were positive towards the Japanese government; 28% negative
  • 45% were positive towards the Mexican government; 56% negative
  • 41% were positive towards the government of Ukraine; 59% negative
  • 26% said they had a positive view of the Chinese government; 74% were negative.
  • 19% were positive towards the US government; 81% were negative
  • 17% were positive towards the Russian government; 83% negative

Some interesting points from the sub-group analysis:

– Feelings about the Ukraine government are especially positive in Alberta (58%).

– Women are 17-points less positive towards the Japanese government.

– CPC voters were more likely (35%) than average to have a positive view of the US government, but still most (65%) have a negative view.

As the country discusses the concept of free trade with China it may be worth noting that opinions about the Chinese government do not really differ among Conservative, Liberal, and New Democrat voters. Immigrants to Canada are quite a bit more likely to have a positive view of the Chinese government (40%) compared to those born in Canada (23%).

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “Many American observers describe their current political situation in stark terms and call it unprecedented.  While we haven’t measured exactly the same question in the past – it seems reasonable to assume that the current Canadian public view of the Trump administration marks a significant break with past attitudes.

China and Russia are widely viewed as authoritarian regimes with too little respect for human rights and democratic values.  For the US, long cast as a passionate defender of individual freedoms and democracy to be as poorly regarded as this is remarkable – to say the least.”

According to David Coletto: “The Trump era continues to confound. I can’t recall a time, at least in my life, when more Canadians would have had a more negative view of the US government than of the Russian government.

How do you work closely with an administration so many Canadians clearly have doubts about? The task for the Trudeau government is certainly a challenge given public opinion about President Trump and his administration.”

METHODOLOGY 

Our survey was conducted online with 2,000 Canadians aged 18 and over from August 4 to 7, 2017. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys.   The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 2,000 is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABACUS DATA INC.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value-added insight.  Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, Ph.D.

MediaPolls

New tech is Star Trek: Millennials and the fitness gadgets they wear

We previously wrote a post on the #Selfcare phenomenon that has seized the Millennial generation -if you haven’t had a chance to read it click here to check it out. That post and your conversation got us thinking about how Millennial views on health and healthy lifestyles are unique as compared to other generations. With that in mind, we welcome you to the first installment in a series we are calling, “Millennial Health”. Millennials, like every generation before them, have their health quirks, fads, and idiosyncrasies. From jazzercise to going paleo, the human race has tried everything to stay in shape. Today we will be looking at how Millennials integrate technology into their lifestyles in the hopes of becoming healthier.

With the advent of wearable technology and their corresponding applications it has never been easier to incorporate data into your regular workout routine. In the past, you needed the budget and resources of an elite Soviet athlete to get the level of statistical insights we now might consider trivial, not to mention all that clunky machinery, isn’t that right Rocky?

Wearable tech like the Fitbit has been adopted by Millennials to optimize their exercise experience. It, with corresponding applications, informs the wearer of anything from how many steps they’ve taken to how many carbs and nutrients they have consumed. The modern-day personal trainer isn’t at the local gym but rather on your arm and in the cloud.

Alright, so knowing your heart beat per minute ratio is one thing but now what do you do with that? This is where the gamification of data makes things interesting. Gamification is a term first coined by Nick Pelling, a British computer programmer and technology philosopher. It refers to the incorporation of game-like elements into areas where they previously did not exist (Pelling: 2002). So data is great but what if you added daily goals, the ability to compete with your friends and family, and even obtain rewards for reaching certain goals? A study by PricewaterhouseCooper indicated that 64% of Millennials believed that they would be more likely to use wearable technology if it had some sort of gaming component to it (PWC: 2014). Additionally, 52% of Millennials in the same study said that they would use a wearable device if it had an in-app rewards feature (PWC: 2014). That being said, gamification has its limits. When asked if they would mind if their personal information was shared with friends and family on their behalf only 14% of Millennials said they would not mind (PWC: 2014). The other 96% were hesitant to share personal information without some level of control. Therefore, it is important to remembers that even though we might think of Millennials as these opensource digital natives, privacy is still a genuine right they value and they want to control the personal information they share, even in the context of a ‘game’.

Now, there are dozens of devices and hundreds of apps that are designed to track your exercise data and to improve your performance. Nearly every major sports retailer from Adidas to Nike to Under Armour has developed an exercise app of their own and has integrated corresponding technology into their apparel. So great is demand for wearable technology, specifically among Millennials, it is estimated that by 2018 the wearable tech sector will be worth between $6 billion (PWC: 2014) to $12 billion (Business Insider: 2014) globally with approximately 17% of the wearables market being devoted to health and fitness applications (Ogilvy & Mather: 2014).

Let’s take a look at two companies that are on the leading edge of this wave of wearable tech.

Orangetheory Fitness

Orangetheory Fitness combines the traditional experience of the gym with the personalization of wearable technology. Every gym-goer is paired with a Fitbit-like wristband which monitors their vitals as they participate in traditional gym circuit training. Orangetheory uses their clients’ personal data to create individual goals and exercise plans. Over the past four years the gym franchise has almost doubled every year. In 2016 alone Orangetheory opened one storefront for each day of the year.

Carrot Rewards

Carrot Rewards is an app the links to your smart phone. It records steps you take and sets goals to encourage healthy life styles. The major component of Carrot Rewards is that with every goal achieved the user receives points which can be redeemed towards monetary rewards. Developed by the Provincial Government of British Columbia in partnership with the federal government and other private partners it also acts as an information conduit for the province to relay pertinent personalized healthcare information to users directly. The information collected can also be operationalized to enhance healthcare delivery in the province based on the lifestyle insights the province gleans from user data.

Wearable tech has applications in both the private and public sectors and is successfully being used to enhance service deliver across fields. While the healthcare field is perhaps the largest wearable sector at the moment wearable technologies have the ability to revolutionize and enhance other sectors such as travel, entertainment, and administration and is set to perforate every area of our lives.

Millennials are embracing the world of wearable technology and the market place is happily obliging. All the trend lines are indicating and the markets are proving that Millennials will continue to adopt wearable technology into different facets of their lives. As Douglas Atkin, Global Head of Communities at AirBnB says, “In the distant future, we’ll forget the idea of engaging in technology at all. We’ll sallow it, absorb it, and wear it, without us really thinking we’re engaging it at all.”

Interesting in learning more about how Millennials will affect your business? Contact us, and ask about our Millennial Audit and the other suite of insight tools we offer to keep your organization competitive in the Millennial Marketplace.

Consumer BehaviourGenerational Change

Leave a comment on New tech is Star Trek: Millennials and the fitness gadgets they wear

#Selfcare – The $10B industry Millennials made by accident

“I’m going to take a ‘me’ day”. As most employers and Boomer parents might of noticed, their Millennial interns and children have taken up the mantel of “self-health” with a fervour often reserved  for Apple users and those charity canvassers we avoid eye contact with on street corners. In one day on Twitter, the self-care hashtag has been used, shared, and liked over 2 million times (Keyhole Stats). Corporations and celebrities alike have cashed in on the craze, creating their own #selfcare packages, tips and programs representing a $10 billion industry in the US alone. Millennials also put their money where their organic, gluten-free, no GMO mouths are and spend nearly twice as much as Boomers do on self-care products and services, $295/month vs. ($152/month) respectively.

Why so popular among our Millennial population? Well, in a recent study conducted by Abacus Data we found that 85% of Millennials check social media at least once a day. Of that, more than half check it frequently throughout the day. Additionally, Millennials are more ‘herd-driven’ than other generations. Millennials were 65% more likely than other generations to participate in an activity when their peers were also participating. Furthermore, Millennials feel obligated to share a portion of their lives with the world. Combining the time they spend online in their social networks alongside their compulsion to share, and considering how influential the opinions of their peers are, Millennials have created a self-fulfilling cycle where they see their peers sharing self-care icons, are influenced, then feel a need to share their self-care experience with their peer networks. This is of course underlined by a genuine desire to be healthy but it has also inadvertently ballooned to this $10 billion industry.

The Millennial fascination of ‘living a good life’ comes from a desire to live their lives differently than their parents, said Gracy Obuchowicz, a self-care mentor and coach from Washington, D.C., in an interview with NPR. They appreciate what their parents have done for them but “are not willing to go about life the same way”.

As comparing ourselves to our parents is a lifelong pursuit, you can count that this craze is not going away anytime soon.

Would you like to know more about Millennials as a consumer? Contact us to discover a full range of research and analytical services. Don’t for get to ask about our Millennial Audit, just one tool we use to make you competitive in the Millennial Marketplace.

Consumer BehaviourGenerational Change

Leave a comment on #Selfcare – The $10B industry Millennials made by accident

Air France unveils new ‘Millennial’ airline

“Is this gluten-free?” the voice inquired from the seat behind me on a recent flight. “I’m on a gluten-free diet for the next 30 days so I just want to make sure there’s none in here.” The subject of discussion, a pack of peanuts, the answer to the gentleman’s question, ‘yes’. It was at that moment that I realized that Millennials truly are of a different flying ilk. Indeed, Millennials do travel differently than past generations. Despite having on average 26% less income than the Boomer generation (Statistics Canada: 2016) the Boston Consulting Group found that Millennials were 23% more likely to travel internationally. This is a generation that prioritizes travel over other things and despite demanding the lowest price they still expect their gluten-free, naturally reared, Paleolithic in-flight meals. Quite a tall order for any airline to meet and indeed one you might have thought impossible…until now.

On Thursday, July 20th, 2017 Air France – KLM announced the creation of Joon [June], the airline for the Millennial flyer. In this new division Air France promises its passengers gourmet meals and beverages served with a certain saveur francaise. Even still, the flights will be cheaper than the regular fare and the attendants garbed in the most chic uniforms that international flying regulations allow. Their press release states that they will start medium-haul flights out of the Charles de Gaulle airport in Paris this fall with long-haul flights beginning in the summer of 2018. Caroline Fountain, VP Brand at Air France explains the Joon journey as such;

“We started with our target customer segment, the millennials, to create this new brand that means something to them. Our brief was simple: to find a name to illustrate a positive state of mind. This generation has inspired us a lot: epicurean and connected, they are opportunistic in a positive sense of the word as they know how to enjoy every moment and are in search of quality experiences that they want to share with others. Joon is a brand that carries these values”

“Epicurean and connected” well that is definitely one of the most elegant ways I’ve heard someone describe the Millennial generation, but nevertheless, accurate. Air France has created a tall order for themselves and cutting prices while increasing their service offering will be a thin tightrope to walk. If there is anything that the young gluten-free gentleman has taught me, it’s that there definitely seems to be a market but as for exactly how big it is, is yet to be seen. Air France is betting around €40 million ($46 million CAD) on this new project and only the future will tell if this is a stroke of genius or another Marriott desk fiasco.

Joon brand video:

Related Reading: The surprising source Millennials are turning to for travel money

Would you like to know more about Millennials as consumers? Contact us to discover our full range of research and analytical services.

Consumer BehaviourGenerational Change

Leave a comment on Air France unveils new ‘Millennial’ airline

What Abacus Does: Assessing the Dynamics of Issues Environments

‘What Abacus Does’ is a companion piece to some of the public facing opinion research we post. It looks at the research through a practical lens and gives a sneak peek into the type of work we do to unearth the strategic implications and “so what” of our data for clients, causes we support, and lunch room arguments.

When strategic communications advisors and pollsters want to understand the goings-on of the public sphere, they will often feed a number of high profile issues with significant media play into a survey. They design it in a way to get at a sense of what Canadians are paying attention to, and how they feel the relevant party – in this case the government – is doing on these measures. In its simplest form the output of such a survey might look something like this, from our latest poll.

While looking at the data this way gives us an overview of what Canadians are paying attention to and feel about issues, our strategic advisors responsible for giving our clients the “so what” of the data often look at synthesizing this information in a different way. Something that looks more like this:

Here, we can see where each issue lies on an axis of both attention (% who say they are following the issue somewhat, down and up) and performance (% who rate the government as good or acceptable, left to right). In other words, an issue located at the bottom right is one few are paying attention to but many are impressed with, an issue at the top left is one where many are paying attention and see performance as lacking.

Immediately we see three things:

1. The government gets high marks on NAFTA and the G20, but Canadians aren’t as engaged on those issues.

2. Jobs and climate change are highly engaging issues on which the federal government is performing well

3. The decision to settle the civil case with Omar Khadr and housing affordability are potential areas of vulnerability for the government. People are paying attention to these issues but the government is not seen to be performing as well on them.

Now, by way of the Liberals’ steady sailing in the horse race we can infer that these problem areas aren’t driving vote intention yet, despite strong and polarizing views. But we can say these are areas where the government may want to be more cautious.

Issues of the day don’t impact vote intention until they suddenly do, and issues with high attention and low perceived performance especially so.

For now, on the Khadr front at least, part of the reason for a lack of traction could be because opposition to the government’s handling is concentrated among Conservative voters (i.e. people already opposed to the government). We could also hypothesize from the impact chart that strong perceived performance on jobs, the economy and climate change are counteracting vulnerability on Khadr, at least for the time being.

For more information and analysis on the public opinion dynamics of Trump, the economy, and the Khadr file, and for information on survey methodology, please see two companion releases found here & here.

And if you have any questions about research and the strategic advice we can provide, feel free to reach out to me or our team.

Ihor is Head of Operations and Project Delivery at Abacus Data. He specializes in connecting abstract numbers and conceptual findings to real, tangible tactics that get results. You can reach him at ihor@abacusdata.ca.

MediaPolls

Trump Attracts Most Canadians’ Attention; Jobs, Climate Change & Khadr Hot Button Issues

Donald Trump is attracting huge interest on the part of Canadians, and not because people are impressed with the President.  This month, the number of people who say he is America’s “worst president ever” stands at 49%, up 7 points in one month.

Polling Canadians about the topics they are paying attention to, finds Trump’s presidency topping the list, followed by jobs & the economy, climate change, the Khadr decision and housing affordability.  Fewer people were following the NAFTA renegotiation and the G20 which just wrapped up in Hamburg.

Asked how they felt the federal government was handling each of these issues, most think the Trudeau government is doing a good or acceptable job with respect to the G20, climate change, jobs and the economy, NAFTA renegotiation and in how they are relating to President Trump. Opinion is split when it comes to housing affordability, with 44% saying the government is doing a good or acceptable job, and 46% saying poor.

On the matter of Mr. Khadr, 33% give the federal government a good/acceptable rating, compared to 55% who said poor.

An additional question on Khadr was asked in our survey that offered three possible responses: “the government made a difficult but perhaps the best choice available”, “the government should have made a different choice” or “I don’t really know enough of the details to have an opinion”. In answering this question, 43% said the government should have made a different choice, including 74% among Conservative voters.

Liberal and NDP voters tended towards the view that the government made a difficult but perhaps the best available choice with 28% nationally favouring this point of view. Almost one in three (29%) felt they didn’t know enough of the details to have an opinion.

 

A deeper analysis of who is paying attention to what reveals:

• The Khadr settlement attracted a lot of attention in most parts of the country, except Quebec. Attentiveness skews heavily towards older, and Conservative voters.

• The Trump presidency attracts lots of attention across the country, and above average attention among Baby Boomers.

• The climate change issue attracts lots of attention across the country, and across different age groups. Conservative voters are a bit less attentive to it than others, but 49% still say they are following it very closely or somewhat closely.

• The G20 meeting and NAFTA are lightly followed overall, with older people more likely to pay attention than younger people.

• Jobs is an issue where interest is also fairly consistent across the country and across generations and party lines.

• Interest in housing affordability spikes in British Columbia and Ontario, the two markets where markets have experienced the most upward price pressures in recent years. Seniors are paying as much attention as Millennials on this issue.

In terms of the ratings of the federal government, here are some key findings (among those who say they are paying some attention to each issue):

• On jobs and the economy, majorities in every region, all age groups give the government good or acceptable ratings. Even 49% of Conservative voters give the government a passing or better grade, as do 67% of NDP voters.

• On Khadr, Conservative voters are clearly unhappy, as are a majority of voters in every region but Quebec. Older voters are considerably more unhappy about this choice than younger voters.

• On climate change majorities in every region, including Alberta (72%) say the government is doing an acceptable or good job, as do a majority of Conservative voters (54%).

• Majorities across all regions, age groups and parties say the government is doing a good or acceptable job in dealing with Donald Trump’s presidency and the NAFTA renegotiation.

• On housing affordability, the most disappointed voters are NDP voters and BC residents.

UPSHOT 

According to Bruce Anderson: “Canadians have a strong interest in Donald Trump, and opinions of the US President are growing worse.  Against that backdrop, people tend to see the Canadian situation in a fairly positive light overall. Most people feel they have a government that is handling the economy fairly well, shows appropriate concern for climate change and is managing a tricky relationship with an unpredictable administration in Washington DC. There is no doubt that a pretty substantial number of people were uncomfortable with the Khadr settlement, but for many voters it is but one of a number of factors they use to evaluate the government – this one decision is not, for the moment anyway, playing a decisive role in their overall satisfaction with the Trudeau government.

One other thing stands out in these results – the fact that climate change is now a topic of broad mainstream interest across the country now.  We may have entered something of a new normal in terms of the level of interest in this issue, and the policy choices that governments make around it.”

According to David Coletto: “This poll helps us understand the interplay of issues and individuals that are capturing the public’s attention at any given moment.

There’s no doubt that the settlement with Omar Khadr caught many Canadians’ attention and left a bad taste in many mouths. But these issues don’t operate in a vacuum, something Bruce and I have continually stressed in our analyses. Canadians are also paying close attention to what’s going on south of the border, with the economy and jobs, housing affordability and climate change.

Given that we found no change in public attitudes towards the government (approval and vote intention holding steady), it’s hard to conclude that the Khadr issue has materially hurt the Liberals at this point. In fact, a more likely explanation is that increasing confidence in the economy, general satisfaction with the government’s approach to climate change, and fairly good assessments of its handling of the Trump presidency might have offset any discomfort the Khadr decision might have had.”

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 2,036 Canadians aged 18 and over from July 14 to 18, 2017 2017. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys.   The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 2,036 is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABACUS DATA INC.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value-added insight.  Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, Ph.D.

MediaPolls

A tide to raise all boats: Millennials support Trudeau government as economic perceptions improve

Its morning again in Canada and we would like to welcome you to the second edition of our series, The Millennial Vote. And if you happen to be one of the 183 Liberal MPs representing your constituents in the House of Commons, I’m going to feed some carbon neutral unicorn coal into the Sunny Ways Express. Despite several missteps, gaffes, and unfulfilled promises approval for Trudeau’s Liberals has sustained and even improved upon 2015 election levels. In a recent Abacus Poll we found that if an election were to be held tomorrow, more Canadians would vote Grit now than did in the last election. As of July 2017, 43% of those surveyed indicated that they would vote Liberal before any other party, a 3% bump since their electoral victory in 2015.  This is not their highest peak, such as their immediate post-election honeymoon scores of 45%, but this an improvement over their February slump.

But let’s get back to those gaffes and disappointments as there have been a number of them. Such as, failed electoral reform, delayed marijuana legalization, the resignation of a NIMMIW Commissioner, and less we forget the divisive $10.5 million settlement to Omar Khadar.  The list continues and it is extensive, yet, 43% is nothing to scoff at. Therefore, the question must be asked…how?

Well, economic growth and the perceived ramping up of Canada’s economic engine might be one of the reasons. We asked 2,036 Canadians to tell us how they feel about the economy and 68% of them told us that they felt that the economy was growing.

Boomers were the most likely to say that the economy was growing at 75%, followed by Generation X at 68%, and tailed moderately behind by the Millennials at 60%. The majority of all age groups saw the economy as growing although about a third of Millennials didn’t think so.  This matches up with wider employment data. While aggregate unemployment is approximately 6.5%, youth unemployment has remained stubbornly high at 12%, so Millennials would be more likely to see the economy as shrinking or stagnant (Statistics Canada: 2017). This could be a future concern for Prime Minister Trudeau. During the campaign he and his Party presented an ambitious agenda for youth, promising to directly create 40,000 well-paid jobs for young people, to invest $385 million per year on an improved Youth Employment Strategy, to create 5,000 green jobs for youth per year, every year the Liberals are in office, not to mention more co-op positions and better pre-apprenticeship programs; essentially promising them everything short of the moon. Now, nearly 2 years into their mandate and youth unemployment is still double the aggregate unemployment rate and approximately only 0.75% lower than 2015 levels (Statistics Canada: 2017). Trudeau has raised the hopes of a generation and one thing we know about Millennials is that when you promise them something you better be able to deliver, otherwise they will shout from the mountain tops and tell the world just how terrible you are, just ask the our Bahamian friends at Fyre Fest.

Government approval is also high. Approximately 48% of Canadians surveyed approve of the job the Liberals are doing in government. Breaking this down by age, we see that Millennials have the highest opinion of the government with 52% approval. The Silent and Boomer generations have the second highest opinion of the government with 47% approval. Generation X has the lowest approval rating of the government with only 45% approving. The Silent and Boomer generations seem to be the most decided voters with only 12% neutral on the subject while Gen X (23%) and Millennials (21%) have a greater percentage that could be convinced either way.

Another interesting facet of the Liberal Government’s support is the high number of traditional NDP voters that approve of their actions. 49% of NDP voters support the actions of the Liberal Government which presents an interesting dynamic for their future Party leader to walk into. Not only must they jockey for the top spot with their fellow candidate but they also need to reassure Party members that they are more progressive than Justin Trudeau.

48% of Millennials would vote Liberal if an election were to be held tomorrow (their largest electoral bloc) and Gen X to a lesser degree (45%). The Boomer and Silent generations are in a dead heat divided between the Conservatives and the Liberals. They will still represent 35% of the electorate by the time 2019 rolls around and while 2015 has been dubbed the first Millennial election don’t count Battleground Boomer out of the race. Remembering that the electorally seasoned Boomers are more reliable to show up to the polls, policy makers would do well to remember the Boomers could still be the deciding factor of the next election.

In sum, things are looking good for Trudeau’s Liberals. Their coalition of the left is strong and they have a solid hold on the Millennial cohort. The Liberal Government is getting positive reviews from the NDP as well as from a few Red Tories (13%). The general mood in Canada is that the economy is good and getting better and this is the bottom line for most people. While the government might have its missteps and gaffes, so long as Canadians sense things are getting better and feel like they are prepared for the future they are willing to forgive and forget political blunders. Sunny ways might be here to stay for the foreseeable future but a dark cloud of youth unemployment is weighing heavily on that horizon. If Trudeau can’t make good on those election promise that third of economically pessimistic Millennials could easily swing to a Party whose economic trumpet is aptly polished. At the time of writing there are 640 days till the next federal election. The Conservative’s green-eared leader Andrew Scheer is still new to Canadians and has yet to prove himself as an alternative to Trudeau. While the NDP are a complete wildcard and a new leader could threaten the Liberal consolidation of the left. Nevertheless, at present, the Sunny Ways Express can keep chugging happily along.

Would you like to know more about the Millennial voter? Contact us to discover our full range of research and analytics services.

Also, if you missed our last episode of The Millennial Vote series you should really check it out as we analyse the real affect Millennials had on the 2017 UK General Election.

Methodology

Our survey was conducted online with 2,036 Canadians aged 18 and over from July 14 to 18, 2017 2017. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys.   The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 2,036 is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Canadian PoliticsGenerational Change

Leave a comment on A tide to raise all boats: Millennials support Trudeau government as economic perceptions improve