Confidence in Canadian Polling

In a considerable number of recent voting experiences, in Canada and in other jurisdictions, questions have been raised about the accuracy of polls, and the professionalism of pollsters.

In our latest nationwide study, we decided to take a look at confidence in polling has held up, asking questions about the accuracy of polls, the professional ethics of pollsters and the way in which the media reports polls.

The results paint a picture that is neither all that flattering nor intensely critical.

Only 36% say the professionalism and ethics of pollsters are excellent or good.  But only 11% say poor or very poor. The rest (41%) give pollsters an “acceptable” grade.

Slightly weaker numbers are found for the “accuracy of polls”: 30% say excellent or good, while 19% say accuracy is poor.

On the way media cover polls, responses are in the same ballpark: 30% say excellent or good, 18% poor, and the plurality say “acceptable”.

Looking at some of the subgroups of the population reveals:

  • Skepticism about the professionalism of pollsters is higher than average among Albertans. 17% of Albertans give pollsters a poor grade.  Quebecers are at the opposite end of the spectrum, with 52% giving an excellent or good rating.
  • When it comes to the accuracy of polls, differences are more muted, although Conservative voters are more likely than others to give a poor grade (28%).
  • Finally, on the way the media cover polls, Albertans are particularly disappointed, with only 18% offering an excellent or good rating, and 29% offering a poor or very poor opinion. Conservative voters are also 9 points more likely than average to give the media a poor rating for the way they cover polls.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “The results may offer comfort to pollsters in that the public has not completely soured on the role of polling in politics – but this is hardly a ringing endorsement of either the accuracy or the professional ethics of those of us who work in this field.  Instead, I see these findings as a signal that confidence in our work needs to be earned constantly, and there is no deep well of accumulated credibility to draw upon.

News organizations should also read into these numbers that questions have been growing about the way they use polling information in their coverage of news and politics.  Given the results that we see among Albertans, it’s reasonable to assume that the controversy surrounding the Calgary mayoralty campaign is part of how people are responding in that province.“

According to David Coletto: “Too often, we pollsters believe our work is infallible and able to easily predict the future. And for the past few years, apparent polling misses in different elections have given not only our industry plenty of reason to reflect on how we approach our trade but also, as this survey suggests, many Canadians as well.

Our reputation is constantly being tested by the work we put out and how we serve our clients. It is also a function of the leadership we take in managing expectations about what is possible with a survey today and working with your media partners and those who cover polls to set the boundaries to what is reasonable to expect from them. The reputation of polling in Canada is not in a crisis or under siege, but we can’t assume the broader public isn’t watching, reading, or listening to our work with a critical mind.”

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 1,500 Canadians aged 18 and over between October 20th to October 23rd, 2017. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 1,500 is +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABACUS DATA INC.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value-added insight.  Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, Ph.D.

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Worth A Look – November 1, 2017

 Happy hump day everyone!

In this week’s edition of Worth a Look we recommend The Four by Scott Galloway. An engaging and fascinating look at four of the most influential and largest companies on the planet.

We also share two pieces on generational change. One looks at the growing interest by American millennials in agrihoods – communities built around community farming. The other busts the myth that millennials aren’t loyal to their employers. Something we always felt was true but lacked good data to back up.

Finally, given all the revelations about sexual harassment in Hollywood, we asked Canadians their experience with sexual harassment in the workplace. Our Chair, Bruce Anderson, reports on the data and what he thinks it means.

Worth a Look This Week
The Four: Google, Facebook, Amazon, and Apple
Scott Galloway
We highly recommend reading this book. It’s a New York Times and USA Today Bestselling Book. Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google are the four most influential companies on the planet. Just about everyone thinks they know how they got there. Just about everyone is wrong.  For all that’s been written about the Four over the last two decades, no one has captured their power and staggering success as insightfully as Scott Galloway.Even PM Trudeau is reading it!And if you don’t have time for the full book, check out this podcast in which author Scott Galloway is interviewed.

Forget about golf communities, is the future Agrihoods?
Tanza Loudenback, Business Insider
Millennials are saying “so long” to the country club and “hello” to the farm. Many so-called agrihoods — short for “agricultural neighborhoods” — are cropping up around the US, and they’re aimed at farm-to-table-loving millennials.  Could Canada be next?

Millennials are still company men and women
The Economist
EVERYBODY knows—or at least thinks he knows—that a millennial with one job must be after a new one. Today’s youngsters are thought to have little loyalty towards their employers and to be prone to “job-hop”. Millennials (ie, those born after about 1982) are indeed more likely to switch jobs than their older colleagues. But that is more a result of how old they are than of the era they were born in. In America at least, average job tenures have barely changed in recent decades.

Sexual Harassment of Women is Widespread in Canada
Bruce Anderson, Abacus Data

Earlier today we released new data on the reported incidence of sexual harassment in Canada. There are almost 15 million adult women in Canada and according to our latest survey, almost 8 million of them (53%) have experienced unwanted sexual pressure. The prevalence of this experience is highest among women under 45.

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Sexual Harassment of Women is Widespread in Canada

There are almost 15 million adult women in Canada and according to our latest survey, almost 8 million of them (53%) have experienced unwanted sexual pressure. The prevalence of this experience is highest among women under 45.

Just over one in ten Canadians says sexual harassment is “really quite common” in their workplace and another 44% say it is infrequent but does happen. Men are almost as likely as women to say that women are sexually harassed at work.

Women 30-44 are most likely to see this problem in the workplace: 22% say it is common, and a total of 64% say it happens in their workplace.

The prevalence of this behaviour is no doubt in part because it rarely carries consequences for the harasser. The large majority of women, and most men, agree that normally there are no sanctions applied against those who sexually harass women in the workplace.

Canadians estimate that about one in five men are the type of person who would sexually harass a woman. Men guess the number is 17%, while women say it is 26%. Younger women observe a considerably larger number of harassers compared to older women.

If an average of 21 men are estimated to be the type who would sexually harass a woman, the number of women that Canadians estimate experience sexual harassment is about twice that number (40%). Men guess that about 1 in 3 women face harassment, while women say the number is closer to 1 in 2.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “People will likely debate whether these estimates are accurate, or whether the prevalence of sexual harassment of women is even more prevalent. One thing is clear in these results – millions of Canadian men and women say they witness this problem, and say there are rarely sanctions to punish inappropriate behaviour and to help protect women.

As striking as anything in these findings is that the experience of young women is even worse than what is reported by older women. If we as a society are tempted to believe that this sort of behaviour is a relic of the past these results make it clear that is not the case.“

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 1,500 Canadians aged 18 and over between October 20th to October 23rd, 2017. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 1,500 is +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABACUS DATA INC.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value-added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, Ph.D.

MediaPolls

Canadian Politics Update: A more competitive political landscape

Over the late summer, Canada’s political situation became more competitive, as Liberal Party support dipped, and the Conservatives saw gains. Today, an election would see 39% vote Liberal, 35% Conservative and 15% NDP.

The biggest regional races show a dead heat in Ontario, a narrowing Liberal lead in BC, while in Quebec the Liberals continue to lead by 21 points, although we do see a rise in BQ support.

One factor that hampers federal Liberal fortunes in Ontario is the unpopularity of Premier Wynne’s Liberal provincial government. Fully 71% in the province disapprove of the job being done by the Liberals provincially, and among those people, the federal Liberals trail the federal Conservatives by a whopping 28 points.

However, the challenges of the Wynne government are only part of what’s diminished federal Liberal support. Approval levels for the Trudeau government have dipped to 40% with 38% indicating disapproval. This level of disapproval is up a sharp 8 points since our reading in September.

While support for the Liberal Party and approval of the Trudeau government has slipped, impressions of the Prime Minister himself have remained relatively steady, and positive. Today, 48% say they have a positive view of Mr. Trudeau, 31% negative.

Probing on the PM’s performance across a range of issues reveals that his job ratings slid roughly 5 points on several items, while dropping 12 points on the question of refugees and 9 points on handling taxpayers’ money.

The strongest ratings for the Prime Minister are for openness and accessibility, his representation of Canada internationally and in the Canada US sphere, on climate change and his personal values. A healthy majority give him good marks for handling the economy. Weakest ratings are on refugees, taxes and fiscal management.

One of the highest profile issues in recent months has been the proposed changes to tax rules for privately incorporated individuals. Our probing on this issue reveals that 37% have been following this debate at least somewhat closely, but most have not.

There is more opposition to (36%) than support (19%) for the proposed changes, while a plurality indicates they “can go along with” the changes. Among those who are following this debate most closely, opposition is far greater than support. Among those who’ve only been following it somewhat closely, 37% oppose, while 29% support the moves.

Among those who voted Liberal in 2015, 30% support the government’s proposals, 21% oppose, and 50% say they “can go along with” the ideas. Opposition is greater than support among NDP voters as well.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “At the mid-way point in their mandate the Liberals enjoy good levels of support in Atlantic Canada, Quebec, BC, and substantial support in Ontario. The Prime Minister remains personally quite popular. At the same time, these numbers reveal a tighter, more competitive situation is developing, especially with the Conservative Party of Canada.

Approval levels for the government are relatively good on international affairs and economic management, but weaker on fiscal, tax and the question of refugees, suggesting that some of the core issues that were animating to Conservative voters are a large part of what’s causing a more competitive situation to develop. Premier Wynne’s very low approval ratings are also a challenge for the federal Liberal brand in Ontario today.

Reaction to the proposed tax changes on individual private corporations have been a drag on Liberal support, both because they animated Conservative Party supporters and because the fairness proposition of the government has failed to generate enthusiasm among Liberal and NDP voters.”

According to David Coletto: “While Liberal Party support is roughly at the level the party earned in the last election, the challenges the government has faced the past month has had an impact on its support. Liberal vote intention is down four nationally and we have seen a sharp drop in the government’s job approval. Despite this, the Prime Minister remains a popular figure and his personal numbers have not been affected – 48% have a positive impression of him. The numbers confirm he remains a strong asset for his party and the government.

The Conservatives can take some solace in these numbers. They have hit a high mark in our vote intention tracking since the election and the government seems a bit more vulnerable today than only a few weeks ago. But as a future release will highlight, Andrew Scheer remains a largely unknown figure and despite having a fertile environment to increase familiarity with him, most Canadians know very little about the Leader of the Opposition.

The data also confirms the considerable headwinds the NDP and its new leader, Jagmeet Singh, face. We find no “bounce” in support for the NDP after his win and instead see troubling signs in Quebec (support down 8), tepid support in Ontario (down to 13%) and little growth in BC. This doesn’t mean that NDP support can’t or won’t grow. But given the challenges the Liberals have faced recently and the opportunity a new, exciting, and interesting leader affords a party, I would have expected a bounce in NDP support.”

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 1,500 Canadians aged 18 and over between October 20th to October 23rd, 2017. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 1,500 is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABACUS DATA INC.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value-added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, Ph.D.

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Universities, Research & Canadian Public Opinion

Commissioned by Universities Canada, Abacus undertook a nationwide survey looking at how Canadians feel about the role of universities today and in the future.  The highlights of this study are detailed below.

The large majority (78%) of Canadians express a positive overall feeling towards universities, with only 3% expressing a negative view. This is consistent with our findings from an earlier study 2 years ago.

Two-thirds or more of those interviewed believe that Canada’s universities are friendly (77%), conduct valuable research (77%), are practical (73%), up to date (73%), open-minded (68%), dynamic (67%) and have a great future ahead of them (71%). A significant majority (63%) also consider our universities to be “world class”. Canadians are split on whether universities are adequately funded.

When it comes to the research work of universities, Canadians share a strong and broad consensus that this work is important and merits support by government.

We probed views about 8 different topics of research and found that in every case more than 80% felt it was important that Ottawa support this research. Topics ranged from medical breakthroughs to climate change solutions, to ideas to make cities more livable, and ways to bridge economic and social divides.

Canadians overwhelmingly endorse closer collaboration between Canadian and international researchers, and like the idea of attracting the best researchers from around the world to come to Canada.  Almost everyone wants to ensure Canadian research is funded at levels that allow Canada to compete in the world.

Most support research oriented towards strengthening the economy as well as research that is more curiosity based in nature, and helps nurture a culture of innovation.

Fully 85% believe that Canada has a chance to lead the world in higher education, research, and innovation, and 86% say the government of Canada should spend more on university research because the upside for Canada is tremendous.

Finally, our tracking data shows an increase in confidence in the future of Canada’s economy and also a rise in confidence in the talents of Canada’s younger generations. 

THE UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson:

“Canadians see that the global economy is turning more and more based on deepening knowledge and the application of learning in the form of constant innovation.

These results reveal a broad and growing belief that Canada can succeed in this new economy and a conviction that we must compete in it.  They expect government to dedicate the resources to ensure that Canada’s competes at the highest levels.

Finally, if in the past some older Canadians feared a weakening Canadian economy and harboured doubts about the potential and prospects of young Canadians, that mood has shifted. Today, Canadians see our young people as a source of strength, and want to ensure they are given the opportunities to make the impact that they can, for themselves, the country, and the broader world too.”

METHODOLOGY

 Our survey was conducted online with 1,500 Canadians aged 18 and over from July 27 to August 1, 2017. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys.   The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 1,500 is +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding. 

ABACUS DATA INC.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value-added insight.  Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, Ph.D.

MediaPolls

Public Attitudes on Oil, Pipelines, Climate, and Change

We’ve been tracking opinion about oil, energy, pipelines and climate change for several years and late this summer returned to that subject in a nationwide study. Here are the highlights of our findings:

Canadians are becoming more convinced that oil will experience a decline in demand in the next few decades. Ten years from now, equal numbers believe demand for oil will be rising (31%) as believe it will be falling (32%). This represents a striking 15-point increase in the number who believe demand will be falling, compared to our result in April of this year.

Thirty years from now, a majority (57%) now believe that demand for oil will be falling, compared to just 22% who think it will still be increasing. This is an 18-point increase in the belief that demand will be falling.

In terms of what people would prefer to see happen to demand for oil, a majority (55%) would prefer to see demand in decline in 10 years (55%, up from 44% in April) and fully two-thirds would like to see demand declining in 30 years (65%, up from 55% in April).

In Canada’s top oil producing province of Alberta, more people would like to see demand for oil declining (38%) in 10 years as would like to see it increasing (28%). Looking out 30 years, 48% would prefer to see oil demand in decline, compared to 20% who would like to see it increasing.

While NDP and Liberal voters are more inclined to want to see a decline in demand for oil, a striking 44% of Conservative voters would like to see oil in decline in 10 years, and 54% feel that way on a 30 year out basis.

When asked what they would like to see in terms of the energy mix for Canada 20 or 30 years from now, the results show a strong desire for Canada embrace more renewable sources of energy, with solar and wind energy at the top of the wish list. Majorities would also like to see increased use of wave and tidal and hydro electricity. When it comes to fossil fuels, natural gas is much more positively regarded than oil: 44% say they would like to see more use of natural gas compared to 15% for oil.

The desire to see more use of solar and wind energy is widespread in every region, across all age groups, and among supporters of all three major political parties.

VIEWS OF PIPELINES

Over the last 3 years, feelings about the construction of new pipelines to deliver Canadian energy to new markets have shifted. Negative feelings have not grown (21%), but positive feelings (44%) have dropped, while more people take a neutral stance (36%).

Discomfort with the idea of new pipelines is higher than average in BC (29%) and Quebec (29%) while positive feelings are much higher in Alberta (67%). Differences by generation and partisanship are also noticeable when it comes to pipeline attitudes. Younger people are less positive and more neutral compared to older people. Conservatives (69%) are much more positively disposed towards new pipelines, compared to Liberals (45%) and New Democrats (25%).

Worth noting is that the public debate, or at least the news coverage of it, may tend to leave the impression that most people have very strong views – however our results show that strong positive views tend to be more isolated to Albertans and Conservative voters, and strong negative views are less than 15% even in BC and Quebec.

When asked to choose between two alternatives: building new pipelines while pursuing efforts to reduce emissions, or building no new pipelines to avoid contributing to climate change, the large majority continues to support a transition strategy, as was the case in 2016.

Worth noting is that 64% in BC and 51% of NDP voters believe that the country should continue to add pipeline capacity while investing in efforts to reduce emissions. Quebecers are evenly split on this question.

On one of the most prominent pipeline projects in recent years, Kinder Morgan’s Trans Mountain, opinion has not really changed since our measurement last year.

On Keystone, 33% support, 25% oppose, and 25% say they can support the project under certain conditions. For the Kinder Morgan project, 31% support, 22% oppose, and 27% can support the project under certain circumstances.

For the Kinder Morgan project, opinion in BC is different from what we find in other parts of the country, but perhaps not to the extent that might be imagined. In that province, 27% support, 32% oppose and 29% say they can support the project under some circumstances. Opposition to the project is strongest among NDP voters, among whom 39% oppose the project.

Anxiety about pipelines is a function of two types of concern: for 27% it is a concern about the risk of spills, but for more people (37%) it has to do with a desire to see a shift away from fossil fuels. Those opposed to Kinder Morgan and Keystone specifically tend to be much more likely to feel there is a high risk of spills (46%-44%), while very few supporters feel the same way (13%-14%).

In BC and Quebec, concerns about spills are higher than average, while among younger people, hesitation is more likely tied to a desire to see a shift away from fossil fuels.

SURROUNDING ATTITUDES ON PIPELINES

Most Canadians (70%) believe that “pipelines play an essential role in delivering the energy we all use every day” and an essential role in the economy of Canada (68%). People are far more likely to agree (63%) than disagree (22%) that pipelines deliver a huge amount of energy across Canada with few incidents.

The majority believes that Canadian pipeline companies put a lot of effort into ensuring safe operation and that pipelines are subject to rigorous oversight by government. Confidence in the oversight by the government has increased 7 points since our last measurement in 2015.

SURROUNDING ATTITUDES ON OIL

Attitudes about oil are increasingly being shaped by concerns about climate change and also a sense that energy innovation is happening quickly and that Canada cannot afford to fall behind this trend because of a reliance on oil.

A majority is “recently growing more worried about climate change and it is changing my view of how long we should use oil”, including 48% of Albertans, and 35% of Conservative voters. And 3 out of 4 people don’t want to see “Canada fall behind in the race to innovate with new forms of energy because of a reliance on oil”, including 70% in Alberta and 69% of Conservative voters.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “Energy, pipeline and climate issues have been among the most highly charged political debates in Canada for several years. What we are seeing in our numbers now is an evolution of opinion: concerns about climate change have deepened, and belief that the world is going to transition away from oil has grown.

Canadians remain broadly inclined to believe that the right strategy for the country is to continue to harness our petroleum resources and to build pipeline capacity if needed, even while ramping up investments and policies that will see the country shift towards more reliance on renewable forms of energy.

Tensions around pipelines are evident but the public opinion data shows somewhat less strong opposition than might have been expected in BC.

Maybe the strongest signal of all, for governments, is the widespread feeling, including in Alberta, that Canada should not stand apart from the race to innovate with cleaner forms of energy, due to a reliance on oil. Canadians sense both an environmental and moral urgency and an economic wave that they want to be part of as well.”

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 2,036 Canadians aged 18 and over from August 4 to 7, 2017. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 2,036 is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABACUS DATA INC.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value-added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, Ph.D.

MediaPolls

Sustainable Growth: How Millennials kick-started the Green Economy

Despite popular belief, Millennials really care about money. It’s true, despite being more likely to leave higher paying work for more fulfilling-lower paying work than previous generations and despite self-identifying as “not being motivated by fiscal incentives”, Millennials really care about money. Millennials care about where there money comes from, whether or not they have enough to live off of, and where they spend their money. As more Millennials are successfully establishing themselves in the workforce an increasing number of them are caring about where they invest their money. A recent study of investors conducted by the global investment firm Morgan Stanley shows that Millennials want more sustainable investment options. After seeing their parents lose their home, car, and great-grandma’s wedding ring, Millennials have shed off the pursuit of maximal growth as their parents once sought it and now desire portfolios that prioritize sustainability just as much as it does growth. Their study found that Millennials were twice as likely to invest in a stock or fund if sustainability was part of its value proposition. Morgan Stanley isn’t the only one noticing the Millennial drive for sustainability. In 2012 The Climate Bonds Initiative, a not-for-profit financial institution, released their first environmentally friendly “Green Bond” creating a market that issued approximately $5b USD in bonds for that year. Over the past five years the market has grown a staggering 1600% now issuing over $80b USD in bonds as of 2016. Each bond is guaranteed to be invested in sustainable and environmentally friendly building projects and companies. As more Millennials are establishing themselves in the workforce they are looking for places to store their hard earned money. They are looking for places that are consistent with their personal image, which often includes an element of suitability. They need a fund that offers them the same satisfaction they get when they order their fairly traded beverage at their local organic coffee shop each morning.

In a recent poll, Abacus asked Canadians for their thoughts on the future of energy in the economy. We found that Canadians as a whole (67%) expected the government to prioritize more environmentally friendly ways of growing the energy economy besides fossil fuels. Millennials, unsurprisingly, were the most adamant that government should push for an environmentally sustainable economy with 74% saying that it should be a government priority.

Millennials will actively pursue relationships with brands and organizations if they are considered sustainable while the opposite is true of brands and organizations that are considered unsustainable. We would like to emphasize the word “relationship” as more and more Millennials are seeing businesses as social citizens rather than legal entities. Partly intentionally and by accident businesses have built or been ascribed personalities. It’s not just the corner store anymore; it’s my local, independently-owned convenience shop which brews a particular type of generic crummy coffee. Just as we look for certain traits when we make ‘real friends,’ Millennials are looking for certain traits when they make corporate friends. Sustainability is now a consistent trait Millennials look for in their corporate friends. Organizations of all types and sizes should look to include an element of genuine sustainability into their company’s communications.

Interested in finding out how Millennials view your business? Contact us and ask about our Millennial Audit. We can help you assess where your business stands and help you chart your path ahead to navigate the complex world of the Millennial Marketplace.

Consumer BehaviourEnvironment & Climate ChangeGenerational Change

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Liberals Hit the Half-Way Mark with a 12-point Lead

Our latest polling on the political mood of Canadians shows that if an election were held today the Liberal Party would garner 43% support, compared to 31% for the Conservatives and 17% for the NDP. These numbers are in line with our results from July.

On a regional basis, we see the Liberals with an 23-point lead in Ontario, a 22-point lead in Quebec, and an 18-point lead in BC. The Liberals have a 12-point lead among men, and an 11-point lead among women. The Liberals have a substantial lead among all age groups except voters 45-59, where they are effectively tied with the Conservatives.

Among self-described left of centre voters, the Liberals have 56% support, compared to 24% for the NDP.

Among voters who consider themselves centrists, the Liberal Party has 43% support, compared to 29% for the Conservatives and 17% for the NDP.

Among voters on the right, the Conservatives have 66% support, compared to 22% for the Liberals.

GOVERNMENT APPROVAL

The Liberal Party lead is built in part on the fact that 47% say they approve of the job the government is doing, compared to 30% who disapprove. This rating has hovered around the 50% mark since the end of 2016.

Approval is the plurality view across all age groups, and in every region except the Prairies. Perhaps most important to the Liberal fortunes is the fact that by a margin of 47% to 24%, those who voted NDP in the last election approve of the job the Trudeau government is doing.

THE ECONOMY

More than two out of three (69%) say they feel the economy is growing today, the highest number we have seen in several years.

A majority in every region, says the economy is growing rather than shrinking, led by particularly positive sentiments in BC (72% growing) Ontario (72% growing) and Quebec (77% growing). In Alberta, where the economy suffered downward pressure due to declining oil prices, we now see a majority (51% growing/46% shrinking) seeing growth in the economy.

Among different partisans, Liberal voters are most likely to say the economy is growing (84%) but 69% of NDP voters and 58% of Conservative voters also feel that way.

When asked how they feel the economy will be in the next six months, our tracking shows an uptick in optimism as well, with 33% saying they expect things will get better, compared to 14% who anticipate a worsening. This net +19 optimism compares to a +3 score last November.

IMPRESSIONS OF PARTY LEADERS

When it comes to views of Prime Minister Trudeau, 47% say they have a positive opinion, compared to 28% who have a negative opinion. These numbers are slightly improved from those we saw as the House of Commons recessed.

For Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer, 19% say they have a positive opinion, compared to 18% who have a negative opinion. These numbers are not that dissimilar to those found for Rona Ambrose.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “Over the last few months we’ve seen data where the Liberal lead was narrower than it is today – a reminder that opinions can be subject to shifting moods. For the moment, the Liberals continue to enjoy a lead based on positive feelings about Justin Trudeau, positive feelings about the economy, and generally good approval ratings for the Liberal government.

Attentiveness to the controversial Khadr settlement appear to be waning, and our results don’t (at least for the moment) pick up indications that the hotly debated individual corporation tax change proposals have created a backlash. Instead, economic confidence seems to be the prevailing sentiment affecting federal politics.

As they enter the latter half of their mandate the Liberals support is based on generally satisfying the large majority of people who cast a ballot for them, plus about half of those who voted NDP last time.”

According to David Coletto: “Support for the Liberal government and the Prime Minister personally remains quite strong as the government hits the half-way point of its four-year mandate.

The Liberal Party continues to poll well in the three largest provinces and its coalition of supporters is broad encompassing Canadians from across demographic and socio-economic groups.

At the end of the summer, Andrew Scheer remains largely unknown to most people while the Prime Minister remains highly popular despite some high profile and controversial decisions. NDP support is not far off where it landed at the end of the 2015 election but its new leader will face a popular incumbent (for the moment) with substantial leads in key regions of the country.”

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 1,512 Canadians aged 18 and over from September 1 to 3, 2017. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 1,514 is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABACUS DATA INC.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value-added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, Ph.D.

MediaPolls

More Expect U.S. to Take Military Action Against North Korea than the Reverse, 84% Say Trump Making Things Worse

A solid majority (63%) of Canadians are following the tensions between North Korea and the US closely.  As of the taking of our latest poll (August 11-15) 43% thought it likely that North Korea would launch a missile at the US, 47% that North Korea would launch missiles at South Korea, but even more felt it was likely (69%) that the US would take military action against North Korea.

When asked what they thought the US should do, the vast majority (86%) of Canadians said the US should “step up efforts to arrive at a diplomatic understanding” while only 14% favoured a preventive first strike by the US.   Conservative, Liberal, and New Democrat voters were all pretty much on the same page about this.

Only 7% have a great deal of confidence in President Trump to handle the situation with North Korea, and 17% say they have “some” confidence.  Three-quarters say they have “not very much” (32%) or none at all (44%).  On this point, most Conservative voters (57%) lack confidence in the US President.

Along the same lines, 84% say they think the US President has made the risk of conflict go up, while only 16% feel he has reduced the risk.

When asked what Canada should do, roughly 8 in 10 say we should advocate for increased diplomatic efforts compared to 21% who say we should tell our US allies we will support them if a conflict occurs.  Two-thirds (64%) of Conservatives favour pushing a diplomatic solution.

If North Korea were to attack South Korea, half (51%) think the US should get involved in defending the South, while 31% are on the fence and 18% would oppose such action. Only 34% think Canada should come to the aid of South Korea in such an eventuality, while 37% take the opposite view and 29% say “maybe, maybe not”.

 UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “The US tensions with North Korea have been drawing a lot of attention among Canadians and many people are of the view that President Trump is making a dangerous situation more dangerous.  The profound lack of confidence in the US President to handle such a critical risk is unusual and another signal of how dismayed most Canadians are at the way that Mr. Trump is approaching his responsibilities.

The fact that Conservatives are not hugely different from Liberal or NDP voters on these questions suggests that the “Trump base” in Canada may be touching a new low, somewhere in the range of 15% (That’s the number of Conservatives who express confidence in the US leader).

In the event that a first strike conflict is initiated by the US, it is hard to imagine, based on these numbers, that Canadians will feel powerfully motivated to support our longstanding ally unless confidence in Mr. Trump improves.”

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 1,500 Canadians aged 18 and over from August 11 to 15, 2017 A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys.   The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 1,500 is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABACUS DATA INC.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value-added insight.  Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, Ph.D.

MediaPolls