Canadians recognize that regional wireless competitors have helped to reduce prices and believe further competition will reduce prices even more.

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Earlier this month, we conducted a national public opinion survey commissioned by Shaw Communications on public perceptions and impressions about the wireless market in Canada.

Here’s what we found:

3 IN 4 CANADIANS BELIEVE THAT THEY CAN FIND LOWER COST OPTIONS FOR THEIR WIRELESS SERVICE THAN THE CONTRACT THEY ARE CURRENTLY ON.

This may seem counter-intuitive given other data that suggests consumers feel they pay too much for their wireless plans, but this is evidence that most consumers recognize that there are more affordable plans available in the marketplace. Canadians recognize that being a consumer in the market today would give them lower prices and more choice than the last time they were looking for a wireless plan.

If they were to look for a new plan, most feel they could find a lower cost option for their wireless service than their current plan.

This view is held consistently across the country, among all age groups, and by voters of all the major federal political parties.

ALMOST ALL CANADIANS AGREE THAT IT’S IMPORTANT TO HAVE ACCESS TO STRONG REGIONAL WIRELESS SERVICES BECAUSE THEY INCREASE COMPETITION AND DELIVER BETTER CUSTOMER SERVICE.

Having access to strong regional wireless networks is important to Canadians across the country. Almost all agree that it is important for strong regional wireless networks to be available. There’s almost no variation in opinion on this point and is as likely to be seen as important by Albertans as it is by Quebecers.

2 IN 3 CANADIANS AGREE THAT COMPETITION FROM REGIONAL WIRELESS COMPANIES HAS REDUCED PRICES CHARGED BY THE NATIONAL CARRIERS.

One reason that Canadians value having strong regional wireless network options is because most see a direct connection between reduced prices charged by the national carriers and increased regional competition by regional companies. More striking, those that strongly agree with this idea outnumber those who strongly disagree by a 2 to 1 margin.

Once again, these views are held fairly consistently across the country. Quebec consumers are the most likely to strongly agree similar to those in British Columbia and Alberta, while those in Saskatchewan and Manitoba are the least likely to agree.

Politically, Liberal, Conservative, and NDP supporters, and especially BQ supporters, agree with the premise that regional competition has helped drive wireless prices down.

ALMOST HALF OF CANADIANS CREDIT REGIONAL COMPETITION FOR THE 35% REDUCTION IN WIRELESS PRICES REPORTED BY THE CRTC SINCE FROM 2016 TO 2018. THIS IS MORE THAN SAY PUBLIC OR GOVERNMENT PRESSURE WAS THE PRIMARY CAUSE.

When we tell respondents that the CRTC’s own report finds that wireless prices have reduced by 35% from 2016 to 2018, and then ask what they feel is most responsible for this, 45% credit increased competition from new mobile or wireless providers like Freedom Mobile, Videotron, and Eastlink. One in three believes public pressure to lower prices has reduced rates, while 20% think government pressure on wireless providers has been the primary factor in the mobile price drop over the three years.

MORE REGIONAL COMPETITION = LOWER PRICES: 2 IN 3 THINK IF THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ENCOURAGES AND SUPPORTS MORE REGIONAL COMPETITION, PRICES WILL DROP FURTHER.

At the same time that most Canadians see a link between increased regional competition and price decreases over the past few years, there’s also a widespread belief that if the government continues to encourage and support more regional competition in the wireless market, prices will continue to fall.

Two in three think that federal government encouragement and support of regional competitors will help to reduce prices. Only 12% feel that kind of action will not help to reduce prices.

This view, between government support for regional competition and reduced prices, is shared by Canadians across the country. 73% in BC, 69% in Alberta, 71% in Ontario, 68% in Atlantic Canada, and 58% in Quebec share this view. There is also wide agreement across political lines – 74% of Liberal voters, 72% of NDP voters, 70% of Conservative voters, and 64% of Bloc voters all believe that government support for more regional competition will help prices drop in the wireless market.

CANADIANS OVERWHELMINGLY WANT GOVERNMENT TO ALLOW REGIONAL CARRIERS TO COMPETE AGAINST THE NATIONAL COMPANIES.

When it comes to any decisions that government or regulatory bodies make with regards to wireless networks in Canada, 86% of Canadians think it is important that those decisions allow regional wireless networks (like Freedom Mobile, Videotron, and Eastlink) to better compete with the national carriers (like Bell, Rogers, and TELUS).

Views are consistent across the country but are more intense in Atlantic Canada, Alberta, and British Columbia.

KEEP INVESTING IN WIRELESS NETWORKS: MOST CANADIANS BELIEVE THAT WIRELESS NETWORKS WILL NEED TO BE FASTER, MORE RELIABLE, AND HAVE WIDER COVERAGE IN THE FUTURE THAN THEY DO NOW.

At the same time that Canadian consumers believe regional competition has and will continue to reduce prices for wireless or mobile services, there is also a broad recognition that the quality of the wireless networks over time will need to improve, given how people expect their use of the network to change over time.

65% of Canadian consumers believe that the geographic coverage of the wireless network will need to get better over the next 5 to 10 years. 61% feel the same way about the reliability of the network. And 58% think that the speed that data is transferred through the network will have to improve.

And so while Canadians want both affordable prices through competition, they also want public policy choices that allow for the wireless networks they rely on to be improved because they believe they will need more reliable and faster networks with broader coverage in the future.

UPSHOT

We often hear that Canadians are frustrated with the price they pay for wireless services that they depend on. And past research we have done confirms that. But that frustration isn’t isolated only to wireless; they are also frustrated with the amount they have to pay for most of the things they need in their lives including housing, food, utilities, and financial service fees.

Shopping for a cell phone plan today is very different than even a year ago. Consumers say they see today prices that are lower than the last time there were in the market

Despite this, Canadians consumers are feeling an affordability crunch, and so it’s important for both government and industry to respond and find a way to alleviate this pressure.

What our research finds is that consumers see the benefits of increased regional competition. Most feel they could find a lower price for wireless services than they pay now if they could get out of their current contract. Most believe that strong regional competition is important to improving service quality, customer service, and lowering prices. Most believe that increased regional competition has worked to reduce prices by putting pressure on the national carriers to reduce their own prices in response to regional competition.

More important, 2 in 3 Canadians believe that if the federal government focuses on encouraging regional competition and supporting regional carriers, prices will continue to drop.

The fact that more consumers believe regional competition is the primary factor in the 35% wireless price drop reported by the CRTC between 2016 and 2018 than either public or government pressure confirms these other perspectives. Canadians instinctively understand that when you increase competition, prices will drop.

But at the same time, public policy choices need to reflect the fact that consumers expect their use of wireless networks to increase over time and so investment in those networks will be an important guide in how they respond to those policy choices. Finding a balancing between helping to make wireless more affordable while delivering the network quality consumers expect and need is the objective for federal policymakers today.

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 1,850 Canadians aged 18 and over from January 30 to February 2, 2020. A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ADDITIONAL CHARTS

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

MediaPolls

As 2020 begins, the Liberals maintain lead as negative impressions of the government and Mr. Trudeau decline.

In our latest nationwide survey, we looked at a range of political questions.

Here’s what we found:

LIBERALS HAVE A 4-POINT LEAD NATIONALLY, INCLUDING A 10-POINT LEAD OUTSIDE OF ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN

If an election were held at the time of the survey, the Liberals would win 34%, the Conservatives 30% and followed by the NDP at 17%, the Greens at 8%, and the BQ at 6%.

In Alberta and Saskatchewan, the Conservatives have a massive 37-point lead over the Liberals. In the rest of the country, the Liberals hold a 10-point lead.

Our latest numbers show the Liberals with an11-point lead in Atlantic Canada, an 11-point lead in Quebec and a 10-point lead in Ontario. British Columbia is a close race among the three major parties. The Conservatives dominate in Alberta and Saskatchewan.

We have seen improved Liberal support among voters under 30 years of age, where the governing party now has twice as much support as the Conservative Party, underscoring one of the key challenges facing the Conservatives as they look for a new leader. There were points last year where that gap was about 5 points, compared to the 20 point gap today.

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT DISAPPROVAL DOWN TO LOWEST LEVEL SINCE FEBRUARY 2019.

38% approve of the job the federal government is doing, compared to 42% who disapprove. This indicator has shown gradual improvement from the low point recorded as the SNC-Lavalin issue took centre stage last winter.

In Alberta and Saskatchewan, approval has never been above 30% since the end of 2018, while disapproval has ranged from 56% to 65%, and stands at 64% today.

Outside of Alberta and Saskatchewan, 40% currently approve of the federal government’s performance while 39% disapprove. The government’s approval hit a low of 34% in April 2019 but has improved by 6-points since then.

Ratings for the job the Prime Minister is doing show that a clear majority see him doing an acceptable or better job on 10 of 13 items. Strongest positive reactions are for his approach to dealing with the tragedy in Iran, his representation of Canada internationally and his approach to gender issues. Also worth noting is that a two-thirds majority indicate they are happy enough with the NAFTA deal. Weak ratings are for handing of tax dollars, the size of the deficit and the TMX pipeline.

FEELINGS ABOUT PM CONTINUE TO SHOW GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT

Personal approval of Mr. Trudeau shows 36% positive, 43% negative, continuing a gradual recovery from the -18 rating we saw around the SNC Lavalin issue last winter. In Alberta and Saskatchewan, 20% have a positive impression of the Prime Minister while 63% have a negative view. In the rest of the country, his numbers are almost even, 39% positive and 40% negative.

Back in June 2019, the gap between Alberta/Saskatchewan and the rest of the country was 9-points when it comes to positive impressions of the Prime Minister. Today it is 19-points.

Ratings for NDP leader Jagmeet Singh are 36% positive, 22% negative with positives holding steady from the end of the election and negatives down slightly.

WHAT PEOPLE ARE PAYING ATTENTION TO

We regularly measure what Canadians say they are paying attention to. When this survey was taken, the plane crash in Iran, Australia wildfires, and the US-Iran conflict were garnering the most attention. Almost half say they were also following very or somewhat closely the Trump impeachment hearings.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “American politics is easily characterized and understood as polarized and entrenched between ardent Democrats and fervent Republicans. Canada has largely avoided such polarization, however, a case can be made that Conservative voters in Alberta and Saskatchewan see the world quite differently from many in the rest of the country.

The Trudeau government found no second honeymoon bounce in our post-election numbers but instead can see in these numbers confirm that a somewhat understated approach to governing is showing positive results in public opinion.

For the Conservatives, the gap among younger voters and the Alberta/Saskatchewan and ABexit issues show the risk that lies ahead – leadership candidates who might play to these divisions may find a positive response within the membership, but they create more challenges for the party in an election that could happen at any time, given this is a minority parliament.

Finally, reactions to the plane crash tragedy also are a reminder of the instinct to unify and show compassion in the face of such terrible situations.”

According to David Coletto: “As the year begins, the Liberals hold a slight lead in a hypothetical ballot. But up against a more or less leaderless opposition Conservatives leaves the ballot somewhat meaningless. Instead, some of the fundamentals continue to show improvement for the government and Prime Minister from the low-points in spring 2019.

The government’s approval is holding steady but the negatives remain lower than they have been since the SNC-Lavalin controversy. Mr. Trudeau’s personal image has improved as well. It’s clear that his response to the tragedy in Iran has been well received and his strength remains how he handles himself and represents the country internationally.”

ADDITIONAL DATA CHARTS

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 1,500 Canadians aged 18 and over from January 16 to 17, 2019. A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian PoliticsMediaPolls

Energy transition a widely accepted concept; Canadians want governments to work on it, not against it.

75% SAY IT IS A GLOBAL TREND, BENEFICIAL FOR CANADA IN THE LONG TERM. MOST FEEL IT IS NECESSARY AND WILL HAPPEN.

IN ALBERTA, OPINION REVEALS MORE DISCOMFORT, BUT MOST SAY A TRANSITION TO LOWER CARBON ENERGY IS NECESSARY AND WILL HAPPEN. 60% WANT THE PROVINCE TO PLAN AN ECONOMY LESS DEPENDENT ON OIL.

A strong majority of Canadians believe the transition to energy that produces less impact on climate change is a global conversation, bound to happen, and something necessary whether we like it or not. Most also think it will be good for Canada in the long run, even if it might make life more expensive.

New Abacus Data-Clean Energy Canada polling reveals that while the debate about an energy transition can be politically charged, especially in Alberta, that even in Alberta most people say an energy transition is necessary, and half think it will be beneficial for Alberta in the longer term.

Most Albertans do not see the conversation about an energy transition as something intended to harm Alberta’s oil sector workers (45%), but something intended to combat climate change (55%). Across Canada, 78% say the intent is to fight climate change.

⦁ 75% say the conversation about an energy transition is a global one, not isolated to Canada. This view is equally widely held in Alberta.

⦁ 71% say an energy transition is certain or likely to happen, including 63% in Alberta.

⦁ 70% say an energy transition is necessary, including 58% in Alberta.

⦁ 75% say it will benefit Canada in the longer term, and 61% say it will benefit Alberta. In Alberta, 54% say it will benefit Canada, and 49% say it will benefit Alberta.

⦁ 68% believe Alberta Premier Jason Kenney opposes an energy transition (same percentage in Alberta as across the country). However, 72% across Canada and 60% in Alberta would prefer to see Premier Kenney find ways to shift Alberta’s economy over time because “global demand will change and Alberta will be left behind if the province is more dependent on oil”. Just 32% nationally and 40% in Alberta would prefer to see Mr. Kenney “reject the idea of an energy shift and promote growth in Alberta’s oil sector”, instead.

⦁ When it comes to expectations of the federal government, Canadians generally (68%) prefer to see Ottawa offer help for Alberta’s workers to build new areas of economic opportunity, compared to 32% who would rather see Ottawa do more to help protect and grow Alberta’s oil sector. In Alberta, opinion is evenly split.

QUOTES
“A lot of the political conversation about an energy transition has involved the suggestion that an energy transition is anti-Alberta, or something happening only in Canada, or a thing that could be stopped by a more pro-oil federal government. But Canadians and most Albertans don’t see it that way – they believe whatever disruption a transition will cause is necessary and inevitable, and they want governments to work together on a plan to adapt our economy, not debate whether we need to or not.”

—Bruce Anderson, Chairman, Abacus Data

“Canadians recognize the facts on the ground: climate change is here, and the clean energy transition is happening with or without us. A majority of Albertans realize this too, and half of them believe it will actually benefit Alberta. A sustainable future for ourselves, our kids, and our economy—that’s something Canadians can agree on. We’re not as divided as some would have us believe.”

—Merran Smith, Clean Energy Canada

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted online with 1,848 Canadian adults from December 12th to 19th, 2019. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.28%, 19 times out of 20.  The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

CONTACT

Keri McNamara
Communications Specialist
778-951-8060
keri@cleanenergycanada.org

Bruce Anderson
Chairman
Abacus Data
613-882-0929
banderson@abacusdata.ca

MediaPollsTechnology

Abacus Data Bulletin: Canadians not sold on the People’s Party or Maxime Bernier

Abacus Data Bulletins are short analyses of public opinion data we collect. For more information or media interviews, contact Bruce Anderson or David Coletto.

If it were up to a majority of Canadian voters, the People’s Party of Canada would disappear from the electoral landscape.  Still, far more would prefer to see the PPC continue than actually voted for the Party in last October’s election.

If the PPC does continue, only 37% would like to see Max Bernier continue to lead the party.  However, among those who voted PPC, that percentage is 86%.

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 2,137 Canadians aged 18 and over from December 13 to 19, 2019. A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.8%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

MediaPolls

Abacus Data Bulletin: Canadians endorse NAFTA2/CUSMA by a wide margin

Abacus Data Bulletins are short analyses of public opinion data we collect. For more information or media interviews, contact Bruce Anderson or David Coletto.

Just before the end of the year, all three countries signed the new NAFTA deal, also known as CUSMA.  Considering how controversial free trade was when the first Canada-US FTA was signed, it’s remarkable that this deal finds the support of 77% of Canadians.

Support cuts across partisan lines and 73% of those who describe themselves as on the “left” as well as 78% of those on the “right” think the deal is good for Canada.

Regionally, positive impressions of the deal range from a high of 80% in BC to a low of 74% in Quebec. 77% of Ontarians believe the deal is a good thing for Canada.

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 2,137 Canadians aged 18 and over from December 13 to 19, 2019. A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.8%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

MediaPolls

Abacus Data Bulletin: What Canadians are looking for in a new Conservative Party leader

Abacus Data Bulletins are short analyses of public opinion data we collect. For more information or media interviews, contact Bruce Anderson or David Coletto.

We asked Canadians what they are looking for in a new Conservative Party leader. The results suggest that smaller government, tighter immigration, more law and order are somewhat down the list of priorities for Canadians, who put more emphasis on ideas for how to grow the economy for the long term, a firm commitment to equal rights for all including same-sex couples, a serious plan to tackle climate change and a more positive, optimistic tone.

Naturally, since a significant proportion of those who answered these questions are unlikely to vote Conservative in any circumstance, the more useful analysis is to look at those who say they are certain to vote Conservative and those who say they are likely to vote Conservative.

Among those who are certain to vote Conservative ideas for economic growth, a strong commitment to cutting taxes, balanced budgets and tighter immigration are the biggest “must-haves”.

Among those “likely” to vote Conservative the top three priorities are the same (tax cuts, balanced budgets and economic growth ideas”, but immigration tightening and law and order are less powerful as motivators. Also, likely Conservatives voters put more priority than certain Conservatives on equal rights and a serious climate plan.

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 2,137 Canadians aged 18 and over from December 13 to 19, 2019. A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.8%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian PoliticsMediaPolls

The state of the Conservative Party brand at the end of 2019

The research for this brand assessment was conducted by Abacus Data CEO David Coletto with advice and insights from Kate Harrison, a VP at government relations firm Summa Strategies and Dennis Matthews, a VP at Enterprise Canada and a former staffer to Prime Minister Stephen Harper and Conservative Party leader Rona Ambrose.

As 2020 approaches and the Conservative Party prepares to elect a new leader following the sudden resignation of Andrew Scheer, we thought it would be an interesting exercise to conduct a brand assessment of the Conservative Party using a few of the tools we often use to measure reputation and brand positioning for leaders, companies, sectors, associations, and consumer brands.

This is by no means an exhaustive audit of the Conservative Party brand but we think it does offer plenty of insight into how supporters, accessible voters and the general public view the Party as well as its primary competitor, the Liberal Party.

THE CONTEXT

The Conservative Party finds itself at a low point in both vote intention and accessible voters. Currently, 44% of Canadians say they would consider voting Conservative (down 4-points since the start of the 2019 election campaign). 30% of decided voters would vote Conservative today, including only 31% of Ontarians, 18% of Quebecers, and 18% of those aged 18 to 29. The Conservative support base is the oldest of the main parties with 62% aged 45 and over.

The party’s support is concentrated in Western Canada, with 41% of current supporters living in one of the four western provinces; 10-points higher than the proportion of the actual population in the region.

It’s also worth stating that the Conservative and Liberal parties have about equal support across the country and so comparing how people feel about the two parties and comparing survey results works well as one group is not larger than the other in the electorate.

What follows is a summary of the most pertinent findings from the study. The survey was quite extensive, so we have focused on what we believe matters most to understanding where the Conservative Party brand is today and where the opportunities are to expand its audience and appeal in the lead up to the next election.

EXHIBIT A: The top of mind associations with the Conservative Party reveal a brand that is considered old, traditional and closed.

When we ask respondents to give us three words they would use to describe the Conservative Party today, the three most frequent responses include old, tradition, and closed.

Some of the most common negative frames used to describe the party are:
• Out of date, old, backward, and traditional
• Uncaring, selfish, arrogant, and mean
• Corrupt, crook, liars, dishonest, and untrustworthy
• Racist, bigot, narrow-minded, close-minded
• Elite, elitist, wealthy, greedy, and rich

Positive frames include:
• Future, confident, and trustworthy
• Fair, focused, and reliable
• Realistic, smart, and strong

Obviously, for those who voted Conservative in October, the view of the Party is quite different from the general public. Conservative voters describe the party as trusting, caring, honest, realistic, and good. Some describe it as old, untrustworthy, but the negative mentions are quite rare among supporters.

Most striking is how accessible Conservatives describe the party. These are individuals who tell us they would consider voting Conservative in the future but wouldn’t vote for the party right now. The perception of these potential supporters is very similar to the general public’s (i.e., they see the party as old, traditional, close-minded, bad, elitist, and untrustworthy.)

For comparison, we asked respondents to do the same thing for the Liberal Party. Although the Liberals have their fair share of negative associations (liar, dishonest, corrupt, untrustworthy), the most frequently mentioned term from the general public was open.

A close comparison of the Conservative and Liberal word clouds shows a wide difference in perspective. While the Liberal Party is seen as open, diverse, good, and ambitious, the Conservative Party is regarded as old, traditional, and close-minded.

EXHIBIT B: More Canadians associate the Conservative Party with oil, farming, religion, and the military and many don’t associate it with equality, women, climate, and diversity.

We showed respondents several images and asked them to what extent the image represents both the Conservative and Liberal Party. Below is a gallery of the images we showed respondents.

We chose images that we think represent different attributes, values, and emotions that people may or may not associate with a political party.

Canadians clearly distinguished between the Conservative and Liberal brands. The Conservative Party was much more likely to be associated with religion, farming, the military and most strikingly an oil derrick. In fact, 38% of Canadians said the image of the oil derrick represents the Conservative Party a lot – the strongest association between an image and a party we tested.

At the same time, many people felt that many of the images associated with the Liberal Party (climate march, equality, and young women) were not at all associated or representative of the Conservative Party.

Some additional insights from this exercise:

• More people associated the image of the oil derrick with the Conservative Party than any other image we tested. 38% of all respondents thought it represents the Conservative Party a lot compared with 14% who felt the same about the Liberal Party. Those in SK/MB (55%), Alberta (45%), and BC (46%) were most likely to associate the image with the Conservative Party. Those respondents who would not consider voting Conservative were as likely to associate the party with the oil derrick as those open to voting Conservative.

• At the same time, only 8% felt that the image of the climate protest represented the party a lot with another 22% saying it represented the party somewhat. 44% overall thought it did not represent the party at all. 56% of inaccessible respondents felt the image did not represent the party at all. 48% in Ontario and 40% in Quebec felt the same way.

• Few (9%) associated the Conservative Party with the image of a young man on a subway wearing a shirt expressing support for equality, kindness, and peace. Although 58% of those who would not consider voting Conservative felt the image did not represent the party at all, only 16% of accessible Conservatives felt it represented the party a lot

EXHIBIT C: Canadians see the Conservative Party as tough as nails, skeptical, close-minded, and restrained rather than ambitious.

Respondents were shown a pair of phrases and asked to select which one best describes the Conservative Party today. Overall, respondents were more likely to describe the party as:

• Accepting diversity (77%) rather than celebrating diversity (23%)
• Traditional (78%) rather than creative (22%)
• Skeptical (66%) rather than trusting (34%)
• Tough as nails (66%) rather than good-hearted (34%)
• Close-minded (64%) rather than open-minded (36%)
• Polished (58%) rather than authentic (42%)
• Restrained (55%) rather than ambitious (45%)

Equal numbers felt the party was confident as felt it was cautious.

Differences between how current supporters and accessible voters feel about the party is quite instructive.

• Both supporters and accessible voters feel the party accepts diversity rather than celebrates it.
• Supporters are more likely to describe the party as “good-hearted” while accessible voters are more likely to think it’s “tough as nails”
• 78% of supporters feel the party is authentic compared with only 33% of accessible voters.
• 72% of supporters feel the party “keeps its promises” while 38% of accessible voters feel the same way.
• 71% of supporters think the party is “trusting” rather than “skeptical” while only 39% of accessible voters feel the same way.
• Most noteworthy, 82% of supporters describe the party as “open-minded” compared with only 38% of accessible voters who think of the party in the same way.

And when we compare how people feel about the Conservative Party to how they feel about the Liberals, we similar perceptual differences as some of the other exercises.

• Liberals celebrate diversity while Conservatives accept it. While 77% believe the Conservative Party “accepts diversity” rather than “celebrate diversity”, only 38% feel the same way about the Liberal Party.
• Conservatives are tough as nails while Liberals are good-hearted. 66% describe the Conservative Party as “tough as nails” rather than “good-hearted” while 35% feel the same way about the Liberals.
• Conservatives are restrained while Liberals are ambitious. 55% describe the Conservatives as restrained rather than ambitious while 35% describe the Liberals in the same way.
• Conservatives are traditional while Liberals are creative. 78% describe the Conservative Party as traditional rather than creative while only 45% feel the same way about the Liberal Party.
• Conservatives are close-minded while Liberals are open-minded. 60% describe the Liberal Party as open-minded compared with 36% who feel the same way about the Conservatives.
• Conservatives are realistic while Liberals dream big. 54% feel the Conservative Party is more realistic than big dreamers. 36% describe the Liberal Party in the same way.


THE UPSHOT
At the end of 2019, the Conservative Party of Canada finds itself without a leader and a differentiated yet negatively oriented brand.

The party is seen as tough, realistic, and restrained. It’s associated with oil and religion and not associated much with diversity, equality, or climate change. People describe it as old and traditional with a closed-mind and cautious attitude.
Where the Liberals are seen as open, creative, and ambitious, the Conservatives are seen as closed, traditional, and tough as nails. The Liberal Party dreams big, while the Conservative Party restrains change.

At the same time, the party does not have an advantage on the Liberals when it comes to authenticity, concern about people over corporations, or whether it is down to earth or elitist.

While the Liberal Party is challenged by perceptions of dishonesty and inauthenticity, the Conservatives offer little to counter that. They are not seen as more authentic or more honest than the Liberals.

According to David Coletto: “At a time when people are looking for their elected leaders to offer solutions to many of the big issues our world faces, the Conservative Party today appears to be restrained and unambitious. It feels out of touch, old, and too traditional to many voters, including many who say they are open to voting for it.

It appears to only tolerate differences, is strongly associated with the oil and gas sector (which is a strength in Alberta but a weakness in BC, Ontario, and Quebec) and not associated with diversity, equality, or climate action.

While being seen as realistic and restrained can be a virtue, the party’s perceived lack of ambition is a challenge. To expand its audience, the party must do more to appear in touch with the times, to embrace differences and defend equality, and to appear to be concerned about the big issues most voters care about and have solutions with appear ambitious enough to solve them.

According to Kate Harrison: Word associations like old, tradition and close-mindedness aren’t likely to take Conservatives by surprise, but they should give pause for Conservative leadership hopefuls. Why? Because challenging these negative frames is necessary to convince more Canadians to vote Conservative in the next election.

This doesn’t mean twisting the Party into a pretzel to be all things to all people. But it does mean playing to our existing strengths (on values like honesty and competency) while bridging the gap for accessible voters who are on the fence on whether or not Conservatives are authentic, ambitious, and accepting enough to earn their support.

Perhaps the biggest area of opportunity for Conservatives lies in defining how they would support middle-class families; specifically, those in urban and suburban communities. The data presented here indicate that voters are evenly split when associating an image of a young family as inherently Liberal or Conservative; an image of the city of Toronto draws equally mixed results. Conservative leadership aspirants who are serious about becoming Prime Minister should be thinking now about not just the policies, but the tone and narrative needed to garner support from these voters next go around.”

According to Dennis Matthews: “Conservatives need to renew the brand in a way that feels welcoming to a broader audience and more contemporary to the times. Too few voters are considering Conservatives in the first place because the brand has become a barrier. This brand problem is particularly acute in the parts of the country that are growing and changing the fastest: suburban and urban Canada.

Going forward, Conservatives need to find a way to renew their brand promise in a way that looks to the future with new and creative solutions to the problems we face as a country.

All this must be done in a way that reclaims the high ground from the liberals on being authentic, focused on everyday working people and their families and aligned to the concerns of our times.”

David Coletto is CEO of Abacus Data. Kate Harrison is Vice President at Summa Strategies. Dennis Matthews is Vice President, Marketing and Communications at Enterprise Canada.

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 1,500 Canadians aged 18 and over from December 10 to 12, 2019. A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian PoliticsMediaPolls

A Premier Ford Reset? Public yet to clue in as negatives hold steady

The media has picked up on efforts to present a kinder, refreshed, genteel Doug Ford, but the public has yet to notice.

Impressions of the Ontario Premier have been relatively stable since April 2019 when his negatives first reached the ~60% disapproval threshold and ~20% positive, a dynamic that has not shifted for some time.

Today, 44% of Ontarians report having a very negative impression of the premier, while another 18% describe their view as mostly negative. Nearly everyone has an opinion on Ford– only 4% suggest they don’t know enough to have a view.

Though a fresh face and renewed approach by the Premier would take some time to take root, there has been relatively little traction so far from a public opinion standpoint.

Men particularly drive support for the premier while women tend to have a much dimmer view of the premier. His support is more robust in suburban areas of the province, though there is no edge for the premier in the 905 or significant differences between Toronto voters and the wider GTA.

Income is by far the biggest correlate of views of the premier, with those in households under $50K or less having a significantly more negative view of the premier than those in higher income brackets.

One in four previous Ford voters now has a negative view of the premier, not compensated by previous OLP and ONDP voters who continue to dislike the premier.

In fact, when we specifically ask Ontarians whether their impression of Doug Ford has been getting better, worse, or not changed much in the past few months, only 14% suggest it has gotten better while 47% have stated his reputation has gotten even worse.

This momentum is mostly among those who already feel negatively about the premier, 67% of whom say their impression is getting worse still. Fans of the Premier report feeling more positively about him, while those who are neutral feel mostly the same. In other words, the only impact of the last few months has been further polarization of the electorate.

While just under half of Ontarians believe the Ford government is much worse than the preceding Wynne administration, there continues to be little buyer’s remorse on the part of 2018 Ontario PC voters. Those who voted PC in 2018 believe Premier Ford is offering a better government than his predecessor, with one in three even suggesting a “much better” government.

There even appears to be some small conversion on the part of past progressive voters. One in ten of past Liberal and New Democrat voters believe that Ford is delivering a better government than his predecessor. This gain should be balanced against the 11% of PC voters who feel they got a worse government when they voted Ford in.

In total today, 26% would definitely or probably vote PC in the next election while an additional 15% would consider it, suggesting a similar coalition of votes still exists for the premier (39%) as came through on election day (40% PC vote share in 2018).

THE UPSHOT

While the media has reported on a more contrite, polished and collaborative Ford following Prime Minister Trudeau’s reelection, voters have yet to notice, though this does not mean they never will. Baggage from his first year in government coupled with current high-profile turmoil around the teacher’s strike and Hamilton LRT cancellation is no doubt unhelpful.

Things have not gotten worse for the premier – those who already dislike him are becoming more disillusioned, but his winning coalition of 40% of Ontarians open to voting PC is still intact, despite the turmoil. An austerity agenda will be a hard sell in the friendliest of political environments, even absent backtracking on infrastructure investments and full out war with the province’s teachers. If there’s a time for Premier Ford to make unpopular decisions and begin a journey to a brand refresh for his government, this is it.

METHODOLOGY
Our survey was conducted online with 570 Ontarians aged 18 and over from December 12 to 16, 2019. A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 4.1%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

MediaPollsTechnology

Abacus Data Bulletin: Canadians would impeach & remove US President Trump

Abacus Data Bulletins are short analyses of public opinion data we collect. For more information or media interviews, contact Bruce Anderson or David Coletto.

If it were up to a majority of Canadian voters, President Trump would be both impeached and removed from office, according to our latest nationwide opinion data.  Fully 60% say they would prefer to see him impeached and removed, another 9% just impeached.  A minority (31%) would prefer to let US voters decide his future next November.

This view is relatively consistent across demographic and regional lines, and even among Conservative voters and Alberta residents, where Mr. Trump has generally had above-average support, significant numbers would like to see America replace Mr. Trump.

For questions or comment, please contact banderson@abacusdata.ca or david@abacusdata.ca

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 2,137 Canadians aged 18 and over from December 13 to 19, 2019. A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.8%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

MediaPollsTechnology

How Canadians celebrate (or don’t celebrate) Christmas

With Christmas around the corner, we decided to ask Canadians about how they do (or don’t) celebrate the “most wonderful time of the year” (in our opinion). We replicated some questions we asked back in 2012 to see what’s changed. Interesting, a lot has.

Here’s what we found:

Canadians are more likely to use Merry Christmas to greet one another this holiday season (62%) but it’s down 10-points from 2012.

28% report being most likely to say Happy Holidays (vs. 20% in 2012) and Seasons Greetings at 4%. Of those who report celebrating Christmas as a secular holiday, 61% will most likely greet others with Merry Christmas – 30% with Happy Holidays.

Christmas is broadly celebrated across the country. 87% of Canadians surveyed say they celebrate Christmas in their family – down 3-points from 2012.

However, since 2012, we see a shift away from Christmas being celebrated as a religious holiday, and a slight increase in Christmas being celebrated as a secular holiday. Overall, about half (51%) of Canadians celebrate Christmas primarily as a secular holiday – a 1-point increase from 2012 – and 35% celebrate Christmas as a religious holiday, down 6-points from 2012. Nearly two in 10 (14%) are unsure.

Eight in 10 (79%) Canadians are planning to decorate their home this Christmas season – a 4-point decrease from 2012.

Two in 10 (21%) are expecting to travel out of town this holiday season – 74% are not travelling out of town and 6% are unsure.


Roast turkey is most likely to find its way onto Canadians’ table for Christmas dinner with 64% reporting they plan to serve that most Christmas of foods but down from 75% in 2012.

Roast chicken has increased in popularity at 11%, an increase of 7-points from 2012. Millennials are much more likely to expect to eat a roasted chicken for Christmas dinner, as well as more likely to be eating an alternative vegetarian meal. Older cohorts are far more likely to be eating a traditional Christmas roasted turkey. This increase in vegetarian alternatives for Christmas dinner is in line with recent findings where 51% of Canadians have either reduced or are considering reducing the amount of meat they eat.

A majority of Canadians (58%) are expecting to spend about the same amount that they spent on gifts last year – up 3-points from 2012. A quarter is expecting to spend less this year (31% in 2012 vs. 24% this year).


When we asked about shopping habits this Christmas, four in 10  (40%) expect to do the majority of their Christmas shopping online, only 6% expect to do all of their shopping online. Younger cohorts – 51% Millennials and 50% GenX – are likely to do more than 50% of their shopping online. Two in 10 (18%) Canadians don’t think they will do any of their Christmas shopping online – almost twice as many in the Silent generation (34%).
Like other movies set at Christmastime, there has been a debate about whether or not Die Hard is, in fact, a Christmas movie. We set out to find some answers, and here is what we found: A quarter of Canadians (25%) consider Die Hard to be a Christmas movie – 55% do not and 20% are unsure. There is a lean towards males (30%) and those 30-44 (36% GenX).

UPSHOT

Most Canadians continue to celebrate Christmas. But like everything else, Christmas is also changing. What we eat, whether we celebrate Christmas as a secular or religious holiday, and how we shop are all shifting thanks to changing demographics and technology. In a way, the Christmas experience across Canada parallels changes we have been tracking in other aspects of life, work, politics, and business.

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 1,500 Canadians aged 18 and over from December 12 to 16, 2019. A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

MediaPollsTechnology