According to a new VOCM-Abacus Data random telephone survey of 722 eligible voters in Newfoundland and Labrador conducted from June 17 to 21, 2015, the NL Liberals continue to hold a large lead in voter support.  The survey also finds a surge in support for the NDP, which has jumped into second place ahead of the PCs, who now find themselves in third place, 32-points behind the Liberals.

The Liberals lead the NDP by 28-points with support at 53% among committed voters.  The NDP stands at 25% while 21% of committed respondents would vote for the Progressive Conservatives.  Support for the Liberals is down 4-points, up 16-points for the NDP, and down 11-points for the PCs since March 2015.

Among all respondents, 19% said they were undecided unchanged from March.

Liberals ahead in all regions of Newfoundland and Labrador

The Liberal Party leads in all regions of the province although the race is much closer on the Avalon Peninsula and in the St. John’s region where the Liberals have a 9-point lead over the NDP. In the region, the Liberals have the support of 42% of committed voters compared to 33% for the NDP and 24% for the PCs.

In the rest of the province, the Liberals have very large leads over their rivals.  In Eastern Newfoundland, the Liberals led by 45-points over the Tories (L 68, PC 23, NDP 9).  In Central Newfoundland, the Liberal lead is 45-points over the Tories (L 64, PC 19, NDP 17), while in Western Newfoundland, the Liberals lead by 45-points over the NDP (L 65, NDP 20, PC 15).  In Labrador, the Liberal lead is 28-points over the NDP (L 45%, NDP 26%, PC 18%).

Only four in ten past PC voters are currently supporting the PCs; 28% of former NDP voters now back the Liberals

When we compare current vote intention with how voters said they voted in the 2011 provincial election, the Liberal Party’s lead is built around three factors: it is holding most of its previous support (92% of former Liberal voters currently support the party), it has attracted 41% of former PC supporters while also gaining the support of 28% of those who voted NDP in the last provincial election.

The Progressive Conservative Party has the support of only 44% of its former supporters.  Twenty-seven percent (41%) of former PC supporters now say they would vote Liberal while 14% said they are now supporting the NDP.

The NDP has lost about three in ten of its past voters with 28% saying they would vote Liberal and 2% saying they would vote PC.

NL Liberals have the largest pool of accessible voters but the NDP is gaining

The survey also asked respondents if they would consider voting for each of the three main political parties.  The Liberals have the largest pool of accessible voters with two in three eligible voters (64%) in NL saying they would consider voting Liberal.  This compares with 50% for the NDP and 35% for the PCs.

For the NDP, its pool of accessible voters has surged by 21-points since March and the election of its new leader Earle McCurdy.  The Tories, on the other hand, have seen a further erosion of its potential support.  Only 35% of eligible voters in NL now say they would consider voting PC, down 6-points since March.

Insights from Abacus Data

Since March, the political landscape in Newfoundland and Labrador has changed substantially.  While the Liberals continue to hold a large lead over their rivals, the NL NDP has surged ahead of the incumbent PCs into second place.  The election of the NDP in Alberta and the positive reception that NDP leader Earle McCurdy has received since becoming leader in March likely accounts in the surge of support for the NDP in not only vote intentions, but also in the number of eligible voters who would consider voting NDP.   The NDP is in a much stronger position today than they were only three months ago when the party was languishing in single digit support.

The same cannot be said for the incumbent Progressive Conservative Party.  Since March of this year, support for the incumbents has dropped 11-points to 21%.  To make matters worse, fewer eligible voters today would consider voting PC than at any point since we started tracking voter intentions in the province.  Only 35% of eligible voters would consider voting PC – almost half as many as would consider voting for the Liberal Party.

The desire for change in the province is strong and despite relatively good personal numbers, Premier Davis faces a daunting challenge rebuilding his party’s support before the November election.  Not only does he face a Liberal Party with broad and deep support across the province but an upstart NDP which is benefiting from a popular leader and renewed interest in the party.

Early next week we will release further results from the survey on top issues, the desire for change, leaders, and how voters perceive the two opposition leaders.  We will also have reaction to the HST hike announced in the recent provincial budget.  That will be followed by a look at federal politics in Newfoundland and Labrador.

Methodology

The random live-interview telephone survey commissioned by VOCM was conducted with 722 eligible voters living in Newfoundland and Labrador.  The survey was completed from June 17 to 21, 2015. The margin of error for a probability-based random sample of 500 respondents using a probability sample is +/- 3.7%, 19 times out of 20.

The data was statistically weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched population of Newfoundland and Labrador.  The tables within this report detail the weighted and unweighted counts for the sample.

Note the small sample sizes when reviewing results in subgroups.

For more information about the poll’s methodology or the results, please contact David Coletto, CEO at david@abacusdata.ca or at 613-232-2806.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA:

Abacus Data is an innovative, fast growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research based advice to our clients.  We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value

Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD. For more information, visit our website at http://www.abacusdata.ca/

We’ve completed an in depth survey among 1,000 residents of Alberta. This release deals exclusively with matters related to energy, and more of the data will be available in the coming weeks. Our first two releases, from the last week, can be found by clicking here and here.

Energy Issues and the Popularity of the NDP Government

The vast majority of Albertans say that in evaluating the performance of the new government, they will pay attention to it’s impact on the oil and gas sector (88% say very or somewhat important) oil sands development (86%) and pipelines to move Alberta’s oil and gas (86%). A smaller majority (72%) says how the province deals with “climate change” will be important.

Expectations about the impact of the government on each of these issues is mixed, suggesting that the Notley administration will experience public scrutiny, notwithstanding the fact that most voters have a neutral to positive feeling about the NDP win.

Here’s what the results show:

– More people think the new government will have a negative impact rather than a positive impact on the oil and gas sector ((48% negative-40% positive), oil sands development (52% negative – 34% positive) and pipelines (52% negative – 33% positive)

– A modest majority (62%) expects the new government will have a positive impact in terms of dealing with climate change.

Carrying Through on Promises

When it comes to fulfilling the promises made by the NDP before the election, the results show that most people (58%) want the government to carry through with creating a “resource owners rights Commission to review the royalty system and recommend ways to increase processing in province and a good return for Albertans.” 17% would prefer the new government abandon that promise, and 24% have no strong feelings either way.

A larger majority (67%) would like to see the government carry through with the “development of renewable energy projects in the province”, while only 12% would like to see that promise abandoned and 22% have no strong views.

However, when it comes to “opposing the Northern Gateway pipeline” only 21% would like to see the NDP take this position in government, while 53% say they should shift their ground, and 26% are more indifferent. Even among NDP voters, only 31% say the government should oppose Northern Gateway.

Energy Policy Choices for Alberta

We asked respondents whether they would like to see the Notley government do a number of things in regard to energy, and the results show a desire to see both support for the use of Alberta’s oil and gas as well as efforts to improve energy efficiency and use renewable sources of energy.

• 90% would like her to implement an ‘energy efficiency strategy’
• 89% would like her to implement a ‘renewable energy strategy’
• 85% would like Ms. Notley to support pipelines to the east
• 79% would like Ms. Notley to support a pipeline to the west
• 76% would like Ms. Notley to support the Keystone XL pipeline
• 71% would like Ms. Notley to “work with other provinces to establish a way to put a price on carbon to help combat climate change”.

Among NDP voters, 79% want Ms. Notley to support pipelines east, 69% want her to support a western pipeline, 65% want her to support Keystone XL. Among Wildrose supporters, 71% want her to implement a renewable energy strategy, 78% an energy efficiency strategy.

When it comes to establishing a price on carbon, 83% of NDP voters, 64% of PC voters, and even 44% of WRP voters would like to see the Premier work with other provinces in this direction.

The Upshot?

This probing on energy issues and expectations of the new government reveals still more evidence that the shift that elected the NDP was not about people looking for radical change.

Instead, mainstream voters, across the province, are looking for continued support for oil and gas development, including expanded market access, while at the same time hoping that Alberta can make more progress in terms of energy efficiency, renewable energy and playing a collaborative role with other provinces on the question of carbon pricing.

How Ms. Notley handles these high profile issues will likely have a lot to do with her ability to sustain public goodwill going forward, and needless to say, the economic pressures in the energy sector will figure significantly in the choices available to her.

Methodology

Our survey was conducted online with 1,000 Alberta residents aged 18 and over from May 6 to 11, 2015. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of Albertans, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Alberta’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region of the province. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data Inc.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD.

We’ve just completed a major, in depth survey among 1,000 residents of Alberta.  The second tranche of results is described here, and more of the data will be available in the coming weeks. Our first release, from earlier this week, can be found by clicking here.

WHAT HAPPENED?

We offered respondents a series of choices and asked them to pick which of the options best accounts for what happened in the election that resulted in an historic shift in the political landscape.

Here’s what the results show:

– The vast majority (91%) said the result had nothing to do with preferring a female Premier. Only 9% overall and only 10% among women, said it was about electing a woman.

– Overwhelmingly, those surveyed say the result was more about a desire for change (93%) rather than a preference for the NDP (7%). NDP voters were as likely as everyone else to say it was more about change. Interestingly, those aged 18 to 29 were more likely to say the election was about people liking the NDP, as opposed to people wanting change.

– Two thirds (67%) say the leaders’ debate mattered; only 34% felt it was not that important. To underscore just how critical it was, those who voted NDP voters were 9 points more likely to say the debate mattered.

– More felt the result was about “cooling on Jim Prentice” (63%), than “warming to Rachel Notley” (37%). NDP voters were 14 points more likely to say it was about warming to Rachel Notley, while Wildrose voters were 14 points more likely to say it was about cooling towards Jim Prentice.

– More say this election was about anger (62%) than about “hope” (38%). Wildrose voters were more likely than others to say it was about anger, while NDP voters were more likely to say it was about hope.

– Most say the election had more to do with leadership (58%) than the economy (42%). Given the economic pressures faced by Alberta in recent months, this is well worth noting. Of note, those under 45 years of age were more likely to say the election was about the economy while those over 45 were more likely to think the election was about leadership.

– The provincial budget was a prominent backdrop for the election call, and almost half (44%) said the result was about the budget. More (56%) said the election was about other things.

– The election was almost equally seen as an expression of “mood” (52%) as it was a choice made around “issues and policy” (48%). NDP supporters were far more inclined to see it as a issues based result, while PC and Wildrose voters said it was about mood.

– Finally, Albertans are equally divided on whether the result was about the province becoming united (51%) or being divided (49%). Perhaps, given the nature of the result, what is most remarkable is that so many people saw the result as having a unifying element or at least being about a shared feeling.

There were also interesting opinion differences by age, such as:

– Young people were more likely to say it was a vote about issues, older people more likely to say it was about mood.

– Young people were more likely to say it was about the economy, while older people were more likely to say it was about leadership.

– Older people were more likely to say it was a vote about anger and a reaction to arrogance, while younger people were more likely to say it was about hope and change.

The Upshot?

This election is one of the most fascinating ones to have happened in Canada in recent times.  These results indicate it was less about the economy than one might have expected, and while it resulted in the election of a female Premier, gender per se did not appear to play a big role in the outcome.

It was a “change from something” rather than a “change to something” election, and also more about the qualities people were looking for in a leader than specific policy ideas.  Those who voted NDP clearly warmed to Rachel Notley, while many others who left the PC’s for the Wildrose were expressing disappointment in Jim Prentice.

While there was a fair bit of anger, there was also a considerable measure of hope.  Inasmuch as 60% didn’t vote NDP but only 25% are unhappy with the outcome, this challenges any notion that Alberta is today a place where partisanship and ideology are deeply rooted: most seem quite open to trying a different approach.  Clearly, WRP and NDP voters had different priorities, but for most voters, if not for the most partisan of voters, these seem to be differences of degree more than fundamental direction.

Methodology

Our survey was conducted online with 1,000 Alberta residents aged 18 and over from May 6 to 11, 2015. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of Albertans, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Alberta’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region of the province. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Sample Composition

Abacus Data

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD.

We have just completed a major, in depth survey among 1,000 residents of Alberta. The first results are described here and in a release on Saturday, while more of the data will be available in the coming weeks.

WHO DID WHAT?

Somewhat remarkably, given the history of the province, the NDP victory was not built on deep divisions across the province.

Instead a fairly broad consensus developed. The New Democrats got the most votes among both women and men, across all income and education levels. They were first among both private sector and public sector employees, and among homeowners and renters too.

The NDP won the most votes in urban Alberta, but trailed the Wildrose by 6 points in rural Alberta. The Wildrose also was the leading party among those who are self employed, again with the NDP second. The PC’s finished a distant third among rural and self-employed voters.

The NDP could not have won this election without a collapse of support for the Progressive Conservatives. Our survey reveals that half of those who voted PC in 2012 left the party in this election. These voters were almost twice as likely to move to the NDP (31%) rather than the Wildrose (17%).

The Wildrose Party lost a third of those who voted for that Party in 2012, with more drifting to the NDP (19%) than to the PC’s (13%). The NDP held 93% of its support base from 2012.

Federal Conservatives will watch carefully what this election result portends for the fall federal campaign.  Among those who voted federally for the Conservatives in 2011, 22% voted NDP provincially and 34% supported to the Wildrose. Only 40% supported Jim Prentice and the PCs.

HOW THEY FEEL?

The word cloud below illustrates the responses to a question asking for a single word expression of reactions to the result. The responses reveal a population that expresses more surprise, happiness and hopefulness than dismay or fear.

A related question asked people to indicate whether they were happy, unhappy or “accepting” of the result. 17% said they were delighted, another 20% happy, and 40% accepting. Only a quarter of those surveyed indicated either that they were “unhappy” (15%) or “upset” (9%).

Few voters (24%) expect the NDP to provide worse government for the province, while 52% expect the Notley administration will do a better job. Dissatisfaction with the incumbents was so high that only 54% of PC voters think the NDP will turn out to be worse than the Conservatives. Only 44% of Wildrose supporters say the NDP will do a worse job than the Conservatives.

That a broad cross section of Alberta voters could vote NDP may have seemed unlikely in the past, but this breakthrough has the potential to change the paradigm in the future.  Fully 73% say that that “if the NDP does a good job, I could see myself voting for them in the next election”. This includes 47% of those who voted PC this year, and 49% of those who voted Wildrose.

THE UPSHOT?

In our next release, we will explore what Albertans say this election turned on. From these results, a few things that are evident.

First, this was a sweeping consensus for change rather than a divisive result. Few voters are unhappy, many are hopeful. Older voters are more anxious, but in this election, their preferences did not carry the day.

Second, Alberta has long been reputed to be quite conservative and hostile to left of centre politicians, but these results paint a more nuanced picture. That three of four say they could see themselves voting NDP if the Notley government performs well indicates that they think good performance is possible, regardless of partisanship.

Undoubtedly, many of these voters will be looking for pragmatic rather than ideological choices, and in a difficult economic and fiscal context, maintaining this level of  positive feeling among voters will not be easy. But the new Premier starts with much more “benefit of the doubt” than might have been expected. This was not a “hold your nose” choice nor is it characterized as a “devil you don’t know” outcome for the large majority of Albertans.

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 1,000 Alberta residents aged 18 and over from May 6 to 11, 2015. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of Albertans, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Alberta’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region of the province. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data Inc.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD. For more information, visit our website at http://www.abacusdata.ca/

High school students to Finance Minister Oliver: Balance the budget and increase spending on education, the environment, and healthcare

Despite the decline in oil prices and government revenues, 49% of high schools students believe that the federal government should do everything it can to make sure the budget is balanced this year.

For the third year in a row, high school students from across Canada participated in the Student Budget Consultation, a national initiative aimed at engaging youth in the federal government budget process.

Six thousand high school students took part in the 2015 Student Budget Consultation from more than 300 classrooms throughout Canada, representing every province and territory.

Other findings include:

– A balanced budget remains important – When asked how they would spend a budget surplus, students allocated a larger percentage of the surplus towards paying down the federal debt (12.9%) than any other option; purchasing new equipment for the Canadian forces (8.6%) and increasing health care transfers to the provinces (7.8%) were also top selections.

– Increase spending for education, the environment and healthcare – A majority of high school students think the government should spend more on education-related social transfers, protecting the environment and transfers to the provinces for health care. With respect to spending reductions, prisons/increased sentences (29%) and arts and culture (28%) were selected most.

– Lowering personal taxes and education funding most effective approaches to helping families – When asked what would be most helpful for families, students prioritized lowering personal income taxes (28%) and subsidizing post-secondary education (26%). Implementing a national daycare program (9%) and income splitting (7%) received significantly less support.

– Reducing tuition seen as the most important strategy to increase youth employment – Approximately 20% of those surveyed said the cost of education was the biggest hurdle facing them in starting their careers, closely followed by career uncertainty (19%).

– National to scholarship program chosen as best way to mark Canada’s 150th anniversary – A plurality of young Canadians want the Government to mark its 150^th anniversary by establishing a new national scholarship program.

To view an infographic of the results highlights, click here.

To view the full results summary, click here.

National Survey of Canadians 18 and over

The results of a corresponding survey of 1,000 Canadians aged 18 and over conducted by polling firm Abacus Data finds that high school students and Canadians 18+ share many of the same priorities and attitudes when it comes to the budget. However, there are also some notable differences between the two groups.

High school students are more likely to prioritize education spending, tuition fee reductions and public debt reduction, while Canadians 18+ are more likely to prioritize healthcare spending, tax reductions, and economic growth.

– While a majority of high school students and Canadians 18+ want the federal government to spend more on healthcare transfers, students were more likely to want to see increased federal spending on education related social transfers, reducing crime through crime prevention programs and protecting the environment. Canadians 18+ wanted to see increased spending on tax credits and/or benefits.

– When asked what was most important to them in thinking about the kind of Canada they want to see 15 years from now, high school students were more likely to rank investments in education and research, and debt reduction as the most important outcomes – while Canadians 18+ were more likely to rank improving health care and strong growth in the Canadian economy as most important.

– When asked to identify what the most important step the government could take to help families, about three in ten students and Canadians 18+ prioritized personal income tax reductions. Students were more likely to select subsidizing tuition while Canadians 18+ were more likely to prioritize family income splitting and a national childcare program.

To view the full results comparison summary (high school students vs Canadians 18+), click here.

About the Student Budget Consultation

The Student Budget Consultation is a civic education and financial literacy program that gives young Canadians an opportunity to learn about government and public policy, debate varying viewpoints and offer their opinion on the priorities of the upcoming federal budget.

The program culminated with a consultation survey, held online and through paper-based questionnaires.

The 2015 survey was conducted in partnership with Abacus Data between December 2014 and April 2015. The results were shared with the Department of Finance earlier this month.

About the Organization

CIVIX is Canada’s leading civic education organization working to build the capacity and commitment of young Canadians to participate in our democracy. CIVIX offers resources and innovative approaches to make it easy and effective for educators to teach democracy and citizen engagement.

Student Vote, the flagship program of CIVIX, is a parallel election for students under the voting age coinciding with official elections. In the 2011 federal election, more than 563,000 students cast a Student Vote ballot from nearly 3,800 schools throughout Canada.

The 2015 Student Budget Consultation was coordinated with the support of the Government of Canada, Interac and the Canadian Association of Former Parliamentarians.

For further information:

For comment or to be directed to students who participated in the survey, contact Taylor Gunn, President of CIVIX at hello@civix.ca or 1 866 488 8775.