Our latest survey of Canadian public opinion suggests that Canadians are feeling better, gradually, about the economy.

Here’s what we found:

• More people say the economy is in poor shape (57%) rather than good shape (43%), but the gap has narrowed from 36 points in March to 14 points today.

• Feelings about the economy are worst in Alberta, and well above average in BC. In Ontario, half say the economy is in good shape and half say poor. In Alberta, albeit with a modest sample size, we see an improvement from our reading in March.

• Liberal voters are almost twice as likely (62%) to say the economy is in good shape than are Conservative voters (33%).

• Among those with the lowest household incomes, 37% say the economy is healthy. Among those with household incomes above $100,000, 50% say the economy is in good shape.

• A separate question asked people whether they felt the Canadian economy was growing or shrinking. Since January, the number of people who feel the economy is growing is up from 28% to 46%. The number of people who see the ecomomy in recession/depression has dropped from 69% to 50%.

• Perceptions in Alberta stand in 27 point contrast with the national average. In Alberta 77% see the economy in recession or depression, compared to 50% across Canada as a whole.

• Asked to predict the economy 6 months from now, most people (56%) foresee no change. Among those who do expect things to change, more (27%) expect an improvement than deterioration (17%). In Alberta, 27% expect things to get better, 24% worse.

• While partisanship has a lot to do with stated feelings about the economy, it is worth noting that even among those who feel the economy is in poor or very poor shape, people are more likely to have positive feelings (42%) about Prime Minister Trudeau than have negative feelings (35%). To this point, anyway, this PM does not “own” a great deal of the economic difficulties that people observe. Among those who say the economy is in poor shape, 52% agree that the PM is setting the right priorities for the country while 48% disagree.

THE UPSHOT

This month’s reading on the economic mood show definite signs of improvement, including in Alberta, where oil prices have hit the economy hard. Obviously, time will tell if this improvement in the economic mood will be sustained, or if predictions that the worst is behind our economy will prove true.

It’s often said that politics is almost always about the economy, however for the last couple of years in national politics, this connection has been more tenuous. This month’s data show that even among those who feel the economy is weak, feelings about the government are relatively positive.

Methodology

Our survey was conducted online with 2,000 Canadians aged 18 and over from May 17 to 20, 2016. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 2,000 is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data Inc.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD.

As the Republican and Democratic Parties look to be mostly wrapped up their selection process for this fall’s Presidential Elections, we asked Canadians how they were feeling about Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, and Donald Trump.

Here’s what we found:

• Ms. Clinton would sweep Canada by 80% to 20% nationally.

• Bernie Sanders vs Trump would produce almost identical results, with the Democrat winning that hypothetical match-up 82%-18%.

• If Canada’s provinces were US states, Donald Trump would carry none of them: Ms. Clinton would clobber the real estate developer coast to coast, including by a 74%-26% margin in the most conservative province in Canada, Alberta.

• Women were especially uninterested in Mr. Trump (87%-13%) but three out of four men (73%) wouldn’t vote for him either.

• The only subgroup that shows an unusual level of interest in Mr. Trump is those who voted CPC last fall. 39% said they would vote for Trump; Hillary Clinton would carry Conservatives here with 61%.

The challenges for Trump are not just a function of the normal Canadian skew towards Democrats over Republicans. His image among Canadians is burdened in several ways:

• 82% think Trump is certainly (54%) or probably (28%) a racist when it comes to his views of some minority groups.

• 82% believe Trump certainly (55%) or probably (27%) doesn’t really understand the rest of the world.

• Almost as many (75%) say Trump is certainly (45%) or probably (30%) disrespectful of women. 80% of women feel this way.

• 84% doubt a President Trump would make the world a safer place.

• His campaign slogal is that he will “make America great again”. Most (79%) don’t believe Mr. Trump would do that.

• For every person who thinks he would improve the US economy, two don’t feel that way. (32%-68%)

THE UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson:

“It’s not unusual at all for Canadians to be more drawn to Democratic rather than Republican Presidential candidates.

However the breadth and depth of the negative reaction to Mr. Trump seems unusual. Today Canadian progressive, centrist and conservative voters all hold his values in poor regard, when it comes to tolerance of minorities and respect for women.

Across the board there are anxieties about his impact on peace and world security His potential as an economic fixer is widely doubted. In short, many Canadians feel his election would be bad for the world, and for America too.”

Methodology

Our survey was conducted online with 2,000 Canadians aged 18 and over from May 17 to 20, 2016. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 2,000 is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data Inc.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD.

By Bruce Anderson & David Coletto

For several years, construction of new pipelines to get Canadian oil to offshore markets have generated controversy involving environmental groups, industry, and politicians.

But where does the public actually stand?

Our latest survey included a series of questions designed to characterize the current mood. Here’s what we found:

• Only one in three (32%) people agree with the proposition argued by some prominent environmental campaigners, that “Canada should build no new pipeline capacity because doing so will end up causing more oil to be used and make the climate change problem worse.”

More than twice as many (68%) took the alternative view, that “Canada should build new pipeline capacity and use our oil resources but also invest in renewable energy and ways to reduce the amount of emissions the country produces”.

• Only in Quebec, among voters under 30, and among NDP voters, are the proportions on this question close to equal.

• Fully 69% of those who voted Liberal in October would prefer to see pipelines built along with parallel efforts to reduce emissions.

• 30% say they support the proposed Kinder Morgan Trans Mountain project, another 29% say they can support it under certain circumstances, while 23% are outright opposed. 18% are unsure. In BC the numbers are 31% support, 31% can support, and 27% oppose.

• 30% support the Northern Gateway proposal of Enbridge, 28% can support it, and 25% oppose this proposal. 17% are unsure. In BC, the numbers are 31% support, 29% can support, and 29% oppose.

• 37% support TransCanada’s Energy East proposal 28% can support it, and 18% oppose the proposal. In Ontario, the numbers are 36% support, 32% can support, only 12% oppose. In Quebec, the numbers are 30% support, 20% can support, and 32% oppose. Only 15% of Liberal voters oppose this project outright.

• If the Northern Gateway project was shifted to a more northern coastal endpoint so that tankers did not have to travel through the Douglas Channel, 28% say they would support the project, 49% would accept it, and 23% would oppose. In BC, the numbers would be 34% support -41% accept-26% oppose.

• Among the 25% who initially said they were against Northern Gateway, about one in three (35%) would accept the project if the project was shifted to a more northern coastal endpoint.

• If people saw that more indigenous groups became supportive of the Northern Gateway project, 33% would support the project, 46% could accept it, and 20% oppose. In BC, the proportions are 36%-44%-20%.

• Among the 25% who were initially opposed to Northern Gateway, 42% said they would accept the project if more indigenous groups became supportive.

THE UPSHOT

Despite strenuous campaigns by some in the environmental movement, there is little public opinion pressure on the Liberal government to scrap these projects..

According to Bruce Anderson: “In a sense, social licence clearly exists. A broad cross section of voters and the large majority of Liberal voters feel uncomfortable with the anti-pipeline argument – believing instead that the best course for the country is to continue to harness the value of our oil resources, while putting increasing effort into reducing emissions and promoting other forms of energy.

This is consistent with the blend of aspiration and pragmatism which has long marked Canadian political culture. For elected officials who believe these projects have merit, the data suggests approval of these projects, alongside efforts to minimize environmental risks and increase First Nations involvement would encounter less resistance than some may suspect.”

Methodology

Our survey was conducted online with 2,000 Canadians aged 18 and over from May 17 to 20, 2016. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 2,000 is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data Inc.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD.

For more information, visit our website at http://www.abacusdata.ca/