In Abacus Data’s last political update, I noted that we should not assume that NDP or Green Party voters will vote strategically for the Liberals if it appears the Conservatives and Andrew Scheer appear likely to win the election.
To explore this idea in more depth, I returned to the dataset to see what else we can learn from our latest survey. Specifically, I used responses to our vote consideration questions to create four distinct voter segments: those who would consider voting Liberal but not Conservative (32% of the electorate), those who would consider voting Conservative, but not Liberal (30% of the electorate), those open to voting for both the Liberals and Conservatives (19% of the electorate), and those who would not consider voting for either (19% of the electorate).
The Liberals and Conservatives have access to half the electorate, but only a portion of it overlaps. Both have accessible voter pools sufficiently large enough to win the election but if we assume the parties need about 37% to 40% of the vote to win a majority, they will need to convert about 3 in 4 of their accessible voters to pull this off. This framing of the electorate also shows that about 1 in 5 potential voters is out of bounds to both parties.
When we look at how each of these groups would vote at the time of the survey, 84% of the Conservative, not Liberal group would vote Conservative. 8% would go NDP while 7% would split between the Greens, People’s Party and BQ. 75% of the Liberal, not Conservative group would vote Liberal with 15% voting NDP and 8% voting Green. 2% would split between the People’s Party and BQ. Among the group who would consider both the Liberals and Conservatives, the Liberals have a slight lead, 43% to 37% over the Conservatives. Another 9% would vote NDP, 7% Green, and 3% to other parties.
Based on this, what are some paths to victory for the Conservatives and Liberals? Let’s control for voter turnout as it’s a variable harder to estimate right now (although a really important one). I will also assume that those not open to voting either the Liberals or Conservatives will stay that way. They will either vote for another party or not vote at all (they are the least likely to say they will vote of the four groups).
A Conservative Path to Victory
Let’s assume that the Conservatives convert the 84% of those who would consider voting Conservative, but not Liberal as our poll says they have now. In order to win at least 37% of the popular vote, they would have to win about half of those open to voting for both the Liberals and Conservatives, 13-points more than they have now.
The challenge for the Conservatives in doing this is that only 25% of this group believe the country is headed off on the wrong track, only 33% definitely want a change in government, and 21% have a negative impression of Mr. Trudeau. Only 19% have a negative of Mr. Scheer but 31% have a neutral view meaning their view of the Conservative Leader can be shaped either positively or negatively. Unless the campaign shifts these views, this may difficult to achieve.
A Liberal Path to Victory
Let’s assume that the Liberals convert the 75% of those who would consider voting Liberal, but not Liberal as our poll says they have now. In order to win at least 37% of the popular vote (although they might be able to win a majority with less than this), they would have to win about two thirds of the group open to both parties, or 23-points more of this group.
This is a tall order for sure, but not impossible. Among this group, 61% think the country is headed in the right direction (another 14% aren’t sure), 79% have either a positive or neutral impression of Mr. Trudeau, and only 24% would react negatively to a Liberal majority. All these numbers suggest it’s possible. The challenge for the Liberals is that 76% of this group would prefer a change in government (33% definitely want change while 43% think change would be good but it’s not important).
So the Liberal campaign needs to convince these voters that they have accomplished a lot, deserve to be re-elected and convert the general positive mood and good will towards Trudeau into votes.
The Upshot
These two scenarios demonstrate that both parties can win this election. But my sense is that the Liberals likely have the easier path than the Conservatives. Even if 1 in 5 voters vote for neither the Liberals nor Conservatives, there are enough left for both parties to win. Focusing on those swing voters that straddle their two universes is what the 2019 election will be about for both the Liberals and Conservatives.
Supporting Data Charts
METHODOLOGY
Our survey was conducted online with 2,000 Canadians aged 18 and over from September 6 to 10, 2019 . A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
We completed our latest national survey the day before the official election campaign began.
Here’s where things stand at the start of the campaign:
LIBERALS LEAD IN ATLANTIC AND QUEBEC, CONSERVATIVES ON THE PRAIRIES. BC AND ONTARIO ARE TWO HORSE RACES.
If an election were held at the time of the survey, the Conservatives (35%) and Liberals (33%) would capture roughly the same amount of popular support, followed by the NDP at 15%, the Greens at 10%, and the BQ at 4% (17% in Quebec). Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party registers 3% support nationally.
The Conservatives lead among those over 60. The Liberals lead among those under 30. And among voters in between those age groups, the two parties are in a statistical dead heat.
The Liberals lead in the Atlantic provinces and Quebec, while the Conservatives are well ahead in the Prairies. Ontario and British Columbia are close in our latest survey.
Conservatives have a massive lead among voters who self identify as right of centre, including a 49-point lead among “centre-right” voters. Liberals have substantial leads among left of centre voters, but still split a significant proportion of that vote with the NDP and Green Party, and even with the Conservatives. Among centre-left voters, the Liberals have a 30-point lead over the NDP. Worth noting is that among self-described right-wingers, the People’s Party has only 4-5% of the vote.
Because affordability and cost of living issues have featured prominently in the issues that concern Canadians, it is also worth noting that among the 20% of Canadians who say that they can’t afford the things they need, voting intentions are pretty diffuse: 34% would vote Conservative tomorrow, 23% NDP, 19% Liberal and 15% Green.
THE POTENTIAL FOR VOTE SWITCHING
Across the country, 42% say it is very or somewhat likely that they will end up supporting a different party than the one they think they would vote for today. Quebecers are the most open to possibly switching (49%) while Albertans least so (32%).
Fully 62% of voters under 30 and 51% among those aged 30-44 say they might switch, compared to just 24% among those over 60.
The Conservative vote is most stable, with 33% of current Conservative voters saying them are very or somewhat likely to switch, compared to 43% among Liberal supporters. The Green and NDP voters are most vulnerable, with 56% of Green voters and 52% of NDP voters saying they might look elsewhere on election day. 42% of those who say they are left-wing might switch, compared to just 27% of those who say they are right-wing.
Conservative switchers would scatter 31% to the Liberals, 22% to the NDP, 21% to the Greens and 27% to other parties.
Liberal switchers would also scatter with 37% going to the NDP, 26% going Conservative, and 22% to the Greens.
NDP switchers would be more likely to go Liberal (42%) or Green (33%) than Conservative (16%)
Green Party switchers would go to the NDP (30%) and the Liberals (27%) followed by the Conservatives at 16%. Another quarter would choose another party, split mostly between the BQ and People’s Party.
PREFERRED PRIME MINISTER
Today, 35% would prefer to see Justin Trudeau remain Prime Minister, compared to 33% for Andrew Scheer, 15% for Elizabeth May, and 13% for Jagmeet Singh. Just 5% would like to see Max Bernier become Prime Minister.
Mr. Trudeau has a 28-point lead in Atlantic Canada on this question and a 16-point lead in Quebec. Mr. Scheer leads Mr. Trudeau by a wide margin in the Prairie provinces while the two are within 3 points of each other in Ontario and British Columbia.
IMPRESSIONS OF THE LEADERS
Mr. Trudeau has 35% positive and 46% negative opinion across the country unchanged from our last survey at the end of August. He is well regarded by those on the left, poorly regarded by those on the right. Among voters in the centre of the spectrum, 31% view him positively, 47% negatively.
Among NDP voters he is -21, among Green Party voters his net favourable/unfavourable score is -34, and among Conservatives, he is -75.
Andrew Scheer has 35% positive and 38% negative opinion nationally both up marginally since the end of August. He is broadly liked on the right, disliked on the left. Among those on the centre his net score is -5, substantially better than for Mr. Trudeau (-16).
Among NDP voters, Scheer is -40, among Green Party voters he is -46, and among Liberal Party voters he is -46. He is -43 among BQ voters (Trudeau is -28).
Jagmeet Singh is 30% positive and 28% negative, the first moment in some time that the NDP leader has been into net positive territory as his positives are up 4 since the end of August. He is +16 among Liberal voters, +2 among Green Party voters, but -33 among Conservatives and -20 among BQ voters.
Elizabeth May has the most favourable image among Canadians with 33% positive and 19% negative (+14). Among Liberal voters, her image is +17, -11 among Conservatives, +29 among NDP supporters, and +85 among Green supporters.
THE ECONOMY AND STATE OF THE COUNTRY
As the election starts, 43% say the economy is in excellent or good shape and another 31% all the current economy “acceptable”. Only 27% nationally say the economy is in poor/pretty poor or terrible shape, but that number rises to 51% in Alberta.
Despite this positive assessment of the country, more continue to believe the country is headed off on the wrong track than in the right direction.
UPSHOT
According to Bruce Anderson: “Barring something quite unexpected, this is a race that will go to the Liberals or the Conservatives. Whether those two parties win from or lose votes to each other is the dynamic that could have the biggest impact on seat counts, but if they mostly hold their ground against each other, the outcome will be decided by how the NDP and Green Parties do at holding or increasing their support levels.
With just over half of Green/NDP votes indicating they could move around, that amounts to about 12% of the electorate. If the Liberals can pull some of this vote by raising fears of conservative social and environmental values, they will be in a good position to win. If they can’t, and if the Conservatives can shake loose some Liberal and BQ votes, the outcome could well be a Scheer government. If campaigns always matter – this one may matter even more than usual, given how close things are at the outset.“
According to David Coletto: “The 2019 election begins with a deadlocked national vote and a lot of uncertainty. Voters appear open to persuasion and not fully dialled into politics nor have seriously considered their choices.
A few things stand out to me from our first election poll.
Although we might assume that NDP or Green supporters would prefer Mr. Trudeau over Mr. Scheer as Prime Minister, our data suggests otherwise. If the election becomes polarized, we can’t assume that Mr. Trudeau would be the primary beneficiary of voters who switch their preferences away from the NDP or Greens. While more potential NDP or Green switchers would choose the Liberals over the Conservatives, many say they would go NDP or Green explaining the recent tussle between the NDP and Green Party.
While the NDP has struggled to nominate candidates and will have less money to campaign this time, early signals point to some positive movement for Mr. Singh. For the first time in a while, more view him positively than negatively. This hasn’t translated into more support yet, but it’s some good news for a party that hasn’t had very much over the past few months.
Right now, polling is telling us what voters’ first impressions are. Many haven’t considered their choices or know the leaders all that well. The campaign can either confirm or change them but would be wrong to consider them static. Either way, the electorate is in a more defensive posture than in 2015, despite feeling relatively good about the economy. They don’t seem that excited about their choices and many are likely looking for cues about where the election is going. My sense is that this election begins in uncertain waters and where things end up is quite difficult to predict.”
By the way, Abacus Data is growing and looking for an analyst to be based in Ottawa. Find out more here.
And in case you missed it, yesterday we released this new poll with Clean Energy Canada.
METHODOLOGY
Our survey was conducted online with 2,000 Canadians aged 18 and over from September 6 to 10, 2019. A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
As the country enters an election campaign, the latest Abacus Data – Clean Energy Canada poll reveals that 9 in 10 voters see climate action as important or urgent. And most people think they both can and should do more personally to help combat the threat.
Across the country, 50% say action to reduce emissions is urgent, 40% important. These views are quite consistent across the country. They differ in Alberta, where 35% say urgent and 49% say important.
Fully 88% say they personally can do a little bit (30%), a fair bit (38%) or a lot more (20%) to reduce their impact in terms of greenhouse gas emissions. And 88% say they should do more, including 25% who say they should do a lot more, 36% a fair bit more, and 27% a little more. Regional differences on these questions are pretty mild, but generational differences are notable: younger Canadians are more likely to say they can and should do more to reduce emissions compared to older people.
Most people want to see government policy of some sort to encourage emissions reduction. Given a choice between taxes, incentives, both or neither – 37% prefer incentives, followed by 35% who say both tools should be used. Ten percent prefer using only taxes, not incentives. And 18% reject the use of either policy approach. Once again, on this question, regional differences are mild.
QUOTES
“Worry for the future of the planet is on the mind of voters as they consider the direction they choose for the country this fall. People want government policies to deal with the problem, and they also see themselves as having a personal responsibility to do more. The market for climate denial is small, and the willingness to go along with using tax measures along with incentives is broader than some might think.”
Bruce Anderson, Chairman, Abacus Data
“It’s encouraging to see how many Canadians believe they both can and should do more. Enabling citizens to do more requires sustained federal policies and programs, both taxes and incentives. Building on the federal policies we already have—from pricing pollution and providing rebates to making electric cars more affordable and accessible—can help the large majority of Canadians who want to do more, do just that.”
Dan Woynillowicz, Policy Director, Clean Energy Canada
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted online with 1,500 Canadian residents aged 18 and over, from August 23 to 28, 2019.
A random sample of panellist were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
Dan Woynillowicz and Bruce Anderson are available for interviews.
Clean Energy Canada (cleanenergycanada.org) is a climate and energy think tank housed at the Centre for Dialogue at Simon Fraser University. We work to accelerate our nation’s transition to a clean and renewable energy system.
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
From hurricanes to melting ice in Greenland, the large majority of Canadians believe that these situations are linked to human- and industrial- caused climate change, and it’s causing them to expect more policy action from governments according to a new poll conducted by Abacus Data with Clean Energy Canada.
Across the country, more than 3 in 4 Canadians believe climate change is probably, almost certainly, or certainly caused by human and industrial activity. Only 8% nationally and 15% in Alberta believe this is unlikely, probably not happening, or certainly not happening.
More than 75% of those surveyed say they think a series of events, from floods and fires in Canada to record heats in Alaska and melting ice in Greenland, are likely to be certainly caused by human- and industrial-influenced climate change. Atop the list of things that people are most convinced are linked are melting ice in Greenland, record heat in Alaska and record heat waves in Europe.
Roughly 3 in 4 or more voters say each of the situations tested have a big to huge impact in their desire to see action taken to combat climate change. Melting in Greenland and fires in the Amazon are at the top of the list of drivers of demand for action, but all of the items tested had a strong impact on public expectations for action.
QUOTES
“Climate change is no longer just an inconvenient truth—it’s an inconvenient experience for millions of Canadians. From the record-setting fires out west to the floods and heatwaves out east, we are experiencing the consequences of climate change firsthand. As demonstrated by these poll results, a strong majority of Canadians are connecting the dots between climate change and the catastrophic weather events they’re seeing on the news or increasingly experiencing in their own backyard.”
—Dan Woynillowicz, Policy Director, Clean Energy Canada
“Hurricane Dorian, the 4th Category 5 hurricane in the last two years, was not really on the horizon when this survey was completed. But Canadians were already broadly convinced that storms, floods, worrying warming in the North, fatal heatwaves in Europe and devastating fires in the Amazon are all part of a broad phenomenon that society should be doing more to arrest. There may be an active political debate about carbon pricing but there is a sweeping consensus that climate action should be a priority, as signs of Earth’s duress dominate the news.”
—Bruce Anderson, Chairman, Abacus Data
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted online with 1,500 Canadian residents aged 18 and over, from August 23 to 28, 2019.
A random sample of panellist were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
Dan Woynillowicz and Bruce Anderson are available for interviews.
Clean Energy Canada (cleanenergycanada.org) is a climate and energy think tank housed at the Centre for Dialogue at Simon Fraser University. We work to accelerate our nation’s transition to a clean and renewable energy system.
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
In our recent national survey of 4,549 Canadians, completed on August 28, we asked our usual political tracking questions. Here’s what we found:
LIBERALS AND CONSERVATIVES DEADLOCKED IN POPULAR VOTE
If an election were held at the time of the survey, the Conservatives (34%) and Liberals (33%) would capture the same amount of popular support, followed by the NDP at 17%, the Greens at 9%, and the BQ at 4%.
However, over time it’s become more challenging to understand the flow of the campaign without looking separately at the two provinces where the Conservatives enjoy very strong support and the rest of the country where more parties are involved in a tighter race.
In Alberta and Saskatchewan, the Conservatives have a massive 38-point lead over the Liberals. Over the year, the Conservatives have never been above 61% or below 50% in this part of the country, and the Liberals have never been above 23% or below 15%.
In contrast, in the rest of the country, the Liberals hold a five-point lead. Since the start of the year, they have never been above 38% or below 34%. The Conservatives have traded in the range of 27% to 31% through the year. The gap between the two parties narrowed to 3 points in April but has been 5 points or more since then.
The NDP has had a range of 15%-19%. The Green Party rose from a low of 8% to a high of 13% but more recently have been tracking a couple of points below that high.
Our latest numbers show the Liberals with a substantial lead (13 points) in Atlantic Canada, a 12 point lead in Quebec and a 4 point lead in Ontario. BC is a tie between the Liberals and Conservatives with the NDP and the Green parties together corralling 36% of the vote, considerably higher than their combined impact in any other region.
ACCESSIBLE VOTERS: LIBERAL POOL GROWING A BIT, CPC STEADY.
When we asked people whether they would consider voting for each of the main political parties, 52% would consider voting Liberal, up 4 points from April lows. 48% would consider voting Conservative unchanged since earlier this month. 44% would consider voting NDP, while 41% would consider the Greens. Comparing those living in Alberta and Saskatchewan and those living in other provinces, we find big differences in the voter pools.
In Alberta and Saskatchewan, 69% are open to voting Conservative, which is 29-35 points ahead of the other three parties. Elsewhere in the country, the Liberals have a 9-point advantage over the Conservatives and NDP. Since June, the Liberal accessible voter pool has recovered somewhat, almost to the levels seen before the SNC Lavalin issue emerged.
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT APPROVAL: REMAINS MORE NEGATIVE THAN POSITIVE; HOWEVER, APPROVAL UP 5-POINTS SINCE APRIL
37% approve of the job the federal government is doing, compared to 46% who disapprove. Approval is up five points from a low point in April.
In Alberta and Saskatchewan, approval has never been above 30% since the end of 2018, while disapproval has ranged from 56% to 65%, and stands at 61% today.
Outside of Alberta and Saskatchewan, 38% currently approve of the federal government’s performance while 43% disapprove. The government’s approval hit a low of 34% in April but has improved by 4-points since then.
LEADER IMAGES SHOW LITTLE MOVEMENT
Preferred Prime Minister results show 35% preferring Mr. Trudeau and 32% for Mr. Scheer. Both Ms. May and Mr. Singh are preferred by 14%. In Alberta and Saskatchewan, Mr. Scheer has a 29-point lead over Mr. Trudeau. In other parts of the country, Mr. Trudeau leads by 12 points. Preference for Mr. Scheer’s as PM among Alberta and Saskatchewan residents are below his party’s vote share. Mr. Trudeau’s number fairly closely parallels his party’s level of support in the rest of the country.
Personal approval of Mr. Trudeau shows 35% positive, 45% negative, slightly improved over his 32-46 split in April. Ratings for Mr. Scheer are 33% positive, 37% negative. The trajectory for the Conservative leader has been to see his positives grow 14 points in two years and his negatives grow by 17. Over most of the last two years, the Opposition Leader’s negatives have been higher than his positives.
Ratings for NDP leader Jagmeet Singh are 26% positive, 26% negative, and have barely moved in months. Ratings for Green Party leader Elizabeth May are 29% positive, 19% negative, which is the best net rating of any of the leaders, but off the peak Ms. May saw in May of this year.
Positive impressions of Mr. Trudeau and Mr. Scheer also differ sharply regionally.
UPSHOT
According to Bruce Anderson: “The election of 2019 isn’t one race, and won’t turn on one issue. It will involve a mix of factors including the feelings about party leaders, and fears, anxieties and hopes about the cost of living, taxes, the environment, health and education, and economic opportunity. It might well be different depending on your generation, or gender, but it almost certainly will be different in different parts of the country.
The Conservative lead in Alberta and Saskatchewan is an important asset for Mr. Scheer but comes with risk. Opinions among conservative-inclined voters in those two provinces can be so different from those found among other Canadians (on issues such as climate change or in terms of feelings about Mr. Trudeau), that it may be tempting to campaign on messages and policies that turn out to limit opportunity elsewhere, where a great number of seats are in play. The Liberal voter pool is widening, while the Conservative tent is not.
For the Liberals, the picture in Alberta and Saskatchewan is obviously very challenging, but perhaps also reinforces the need to win key, and tight, battleground situations in Ontario and BC, and to nurture and strengthen their leads in Quebec and Atlantic Canada. At this moment, the challenge for the NDP and the Green Party may be to gain a bigger share of voice – which is never easy, but might be getting harder than ever given the disruptions in how people gather news that shapes their opinions.“
According to David Coletto: “Our latest read of the political landscape indicates a very close race nationally but one that is more nuanced and regionally based. While the Conservatives have a massive advantage in Alberta and Saskatchewan, the Liberals have been trending positively in other regions of the country.
We split out Alberta and Saskatchewan from the rest of the country because the election is so different in those areas. The Liberals, NDP, or Greens will be hard-pressed to win much in those two provinces. This election will ultimately turn on how the rest of the country feels and the polarization between Alberta and Saskatchewan and the rest of the country muddies the water in terms of anticipating how the public is reacting to the pre-campaign period.”
METHODOLOGY
Our survey was conducted online with 4,549 Canadians aged 18 and over from August 23 to 29, 2019. A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.5%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
In our most recent national survey of 2,903 Canadian adults, we asked:
“If you had the choice between working in a job that was unionized or not unionized, which would you choose?”
Overall, slightly more Canadians would prefer to have a unionized job than one that is not unionized. 42% preferred a unionized workplace versus 39% who would want a non-unionized workplace. 19% were unsure.
When we compare results across different subgroups, some interesting differences (or not) emerge including:
There’s no gender gap on the question. The same proportion of men as women would prefer to be unionized, although women are 5-points more likely to say they are unsure.
There’s a slight relationship across age groups. Younger Canadians (18 to 29) are more likely to prefer to work in a unionized environment than older Canadians.
Those with a university degree are most likely to prefer working in a unionized workplace (46%) than those with college or those with high school or less. The difference those is more related to higher incidences of “unsure” responses among high school and college educated respondents.
Household income doesn’t seem to play much role either. Those in households making $50,000 or less are about as likely to want to work in a unionized environment as those living in a household earning $100,000 or more. In fact, those in the middle income bracket (earning between $50K and $100K) were the most likely to want to work in a unionized environment.
MOST UNION MEMBERS WOULD PREFER TO BE UNIONIZED.
We also find that a clear majority of those who are currently members of a union say they would prefer to work in a unionized workplace. 77% of those who say they are members of a public sector union and 67% of those in a private sector would rather be unionized than not, if given the choice.
Among those currently in the workforce and not in a unionized workplace, 27% would prefer to be unionized versus 53% who would rather not. 20% are unsure.
POLITICAL ORIENTATION DRIVES PREFERENCE FOR UNIONIZED EMPLOYMENT.
When we compare responses across federal party identification, we see more variation than across demographics or socio-economic status.
NDP partisans, not surprisingly, are the most likely to prefer working in a unionized workplace (51% vs. 31%). Although, noteworthy that about one in three NDP partisans would prefer a job that was not unionized. Liberal partisans are not far behind at 46%. Conservative partisans are the least likely to want to work in a unionized workplace, but a sizable minority (39%) would.
UPSHOT
We only have one question to analyze and no follow up questions, but the results point to a desire by many Canadians to work in a unionized workplace. Despite the fact that about 16% to 20% of Canadians are unionized, more would choose to be if they could.
Unfortunately, I don’t have any longitudinal data to assess whether this is higher or lower than in the past. But the lack of clear demographic or socio-economic drivers, but clearer political ones points to the politicized nature of union membership and the labour movement more broadly.
But with rising concerns about job security, precarious work, and the disruption in the economy, labour unions may have an opportunity to expand membership and reintroduce themselves to a new generation or workers who more than any other generation seem interested in unionizing.
METHODOLOGY
Our survey was conducted online with 2,903 Canadians aged 18 and over from August 14 to 20, 2019. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.9%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
Along with polling data, there are other data sources that can offer some insight into the dynamics of the election campaign.
Looking at what Canadians are searching for on Google is of particular interest. Not only because Google provides real-time, comparable data, but search behaviour can tell us what Canadians are interested in and looking for more information on. There’s some evidence in other domains that search data can be used to anticipate changes in public opinion.
We have create a few queries that we think you’ll find interesting.
These charts are automatically updated in real-time so check back often to see if, and how, things change over the course of the election.
PARTY LEADERS (Past 3o Days)
PARTY LEADERS – QUEBEC (Past 30 Days)
PARTY LEADERS (Past 7 Days)
TRUDEAU VS. SCHEER VS. DOUG FORD IN ONTARIO (Past 30 Days)
POLITICAL PARTIES (Past 30 Days)
TRUMP VS. TRUDEAU (Past 30 Days)
CANADIAN VS. AMERICAN ELECTION (Past 30 Days)
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
We were in the field immediately after the release of the Ethics Commissioners report on the SNC Lavalin matter, and through the following several days.
Here’s what our national survey of 2,152 respondents reveals:
SNC – LAVALIN: FEW MINDS CHANGED. MORE OF THOSE WHO DID SAW A STORY OF PM PROTECTING JOBS.
Just over a third (35%) had not heard of the Ethics Commissioners’ report, while 48% said they had heard something about it. Only 16% consumed a lot of news coverage on this topic. Those with the strongest desire for a change in government or the strongest desire to see the Liberals re-elected were paying the most attention.
Of those who followed the story of the Commissioners Report at all, 78% said it did not change their opinion of what happened, while 22% said it did.
Among all who followed the story, 43% say the SNC Lavalin matter seems to be about “a Prime Minister looking for ways to keep workers from losing jobs” while 57% say it is about “doing something inappropriate for a company that did not deserve help.”. In Quebec, opinion is evenly split, with 50% saying it was about protecting jobs, and 50% saying it was inappropriate.
However, what is perhaps most noteworthy in the results is this: among the 21% (equivalent to about 6 million voters) who said the Ethics Commissioner’s report altered their view of what happened, more (56%) came away thinking it was about protecting jobs than became convinced that the PM had done something inappropriate (44%). This effect was most notable among NDP and BQ voters.
Another way to look at the potential impact of the Ethics Commissioner’s report is to merge the three questions. 36% are unaware of the report, and another 50% are aware of the report, but it confirmed what they already thought about the issue. That represents 86% of the population.
For the remaining 14%, 8% said the report changed their mind about the issue, and they feel that the SNC-Lavalin controversy was about the Prime Minister trying to protect jobs while 6% said they changed their minds, but they see the issue as the Prime Minister doing something inappropriate to help a company.
Based on this, we can conclude that the net impact of the report so far was marginal.
Among the 8% who said their minds were changed because of the report and felt the Prime Minister was trying to save jobs, 73% would consider voting Liberal, and 54% of those decided would vote Liberal today.
Among the 6% who said their minds were changed because of the report and felt the issue was more about Prime Minister was doing something inappropriate, 42% are still open to voting Liberal, with 22% planning to do so if an election was today. 35% would vote Conservative, 23% NDP, and 12% Green.
And so given this, what impact has the report had on other indicators? Not much.
LIBERALS AND CONSERVATIVES REMAIN DEADLOCKED AT 32%
If an election were held at the time of the survey, the Liberals and Conservatives would each get 32% of committed voter support, followed by the NDP at 17%, the Greens at 10%, and the BQ at 4%. All these numbers are virtually unchanged since our last survey completed in early August.
Regionally, the Conservatives are well ahead in Alberta and lead in Saskatchewan. The Liberals lead by a wide margin in Quebec while the two parties are tied in British Columbia, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada. The change in the regional numbers from our last survey is within the margin of error.
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT APPROVAL HOLDS STEADY
36% approve of the job the federal government is doing, compared to 47% who disapprove. These numbers are virtually unchanged since early in the month. Approval of the government remains 4-points higher than at its floor in April and consistent over the past three months.
ACCESSIBLE VOTER POOLS UNCHANGED
The accessible voter pool for the Liberals (50%) and the Conservatives (48%) is unchanged from the previous wave. The same is true for the NDP and Green party.
LEADER IMAGES SHOW LITTLE MOVEMENT
Preferred Prime Minister results showed a slight narrowing of the 6-point lead Mr. Trudeau had. In this wave, 33% picked the Liberal leader, compared to 31% who preferred Mr. Scheer. Elizabeth May and Jagmeet Singh continue to be neck and neck for third.
Personal approval of Mr. Trudeau shows 34% positive, 45% negative. The negative number is the same as the prior wave; the positive number is 2 points lower than earlier in August. Ratings for Mr. Scheer are 31% positive, 35% negative and unchanged since the previous wave. Ratings for NDP leader Jagmeet Singh are 26% positive, 26% negative, identical to the number we saw a month ago. Ratings for Green Party leader Elizabeth May are 31% positive, 19% negative, a slight improvement over the 29-21 split we saw in our previous wave.
UPSHOT
According to Bruce Anderson: “The SNC Lavalin issue definitely caused harm to the public opinion surrounding the PM and the Liberal government in the spring, but the Ethics Commissioner’s report did not trigger a new wave of unhappiness with Mr. Trudeau or the government. Most paid little attention, and said their minds were unchanged.
Mr. Trudeau’s unwillingness to apologize for trying to protect jobs appeared relatively well heard and accepted, especially by those whose minds were open to change. With that segment of the population, the Liberals actually appear to have had a better week than their opponents, on this issue.“
According to David Coletto: “The evidence from our survey indicates that the Ethics Commissioner’s report has not had much impact on Canadian public opinion overall. Vote intention, government approval, and the Prime Minister’s personal image are unchanged from the survey we conducted earlier this month.
It seems that views on the matter are polarized and to an extent baked into their wider views. The damage caused by the SNC-Lavalin controversy persists in that more people continue to view the Prime Minister negatively than positively, more disapprove of the government’s performance than approve, and the Liberal vote share is 4 to 5 points lower than it was in the final months of 2018. But there’s no evidence these indicators are substantially different than only a few weeks earlier.
If anything, the Commissioner’s report may have stalled some positive momentum the Liberals and Mr. Trudeau were likely experiencing over the previous few months, but it hasn’t fundamentally changed the nature of the election. The race is very close and still quite unpredictable at this stage.”
METHODOLOGY
Our survey was conducted online with 2,152 Canadians aged 18 and over from August 14 to 19, 2019. A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
Abacus Data was commissioned by Seth Klein, adjunct professor with Simon Fraser University’s Urban Studies program (as part of research for a book he is writing on the climate emergency), with support from the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives –BC Office, and the Corporate Mapping Project) to conduct a national public opinion survey of 2,000 Canadian adults on perspectives about climate change, positions on action, and attitudes and awareness of the Canadian version of the Green New Deal.
This was a comprehensive survey that asked a large number of questions. The full deck is available for download here, and Seth’s take on the poll is available here.
Here’s a summary of what the survey found:
82% SAY CLIMATE CHANGE IS A SERIOUS PROBLEM, INCLUDING 47% WHO DESCRIBE IT AS AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS PROBLEM.
Before exploring the views on climate change in more detail, we asked respondents to rate to what extent, if at all, five issues were problems in Canada.
82% rated climate change as an extremely serious or serious problem, second only to the rising cost of living which was rated as a serious problem to 90% of Canadians. More striking, 47% of Canadians rated climate change as an extremely serious problem, 15-points higher than wealth or income inequality, 23-points higher than increasing automation of work and the loss of good-paying jobs, and more than double the number who felt increasing immigration to Canada was an extremely serious problem.
At the same time, 1 in 4 Canadians report thinking about climate change often and are getting really anxious about it. Another 49% say they think it about it sometimes and they are getting increasingly worried about what impact it will have.
While feelings about climate change are fairly consistent across demographic groups, younger Canadians (18 to 29) are more likely to say they think about it often and are getting really anxious about it. Quebecers are the most anxious about climate change while Albertans are the least anxious – although 58% of Albertans say they are either anxious and thinking about it all the time or think it about it sometimes but becoming increasingly worried about what impact it will have.
We find no difference in views across household income or education levels.
42% DESCRIBE CLIMATE CHANGE AS AN “EMERGENCY”.
Given this level of anxiety, it’s no surprise that a large number of Canadians describe climate as an emergency now (42%) with another 20% saying it is not yet an emergency but will likely become one over the next few years. Only 12% of Canadians report climate change as something we should not be that concerned about.
Similar patterns emerge to this question. About 6 in 10 Quebecers describe climate change as an emergency (59%) compared with 42% in BC, 39% in Atlantic Canada, and 38% in Ontario. In the prairies, the concern is less prevalent, but even in Alberta, 27% describe climate change as an emergency, and another 20% think it will become one in the next few years.
Across age groups, half of younger Canadians believe climate change is an emergency compared with about 4 in 10 among older age groups.
Looking at the issue through another framing lens, 81% agree that climate change represents a major threat to the future of their children and grandchildren, including 49% who strongly agree with the statement.
3 IN 4 SAY THEY OR SOMEONE CLOSE TO THEM HAVE EXPERIENCED THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN SOME WAY.
This elevated level of concern and anxiety is at least partly caused by a sense that a clear majority of Canadians believe they or someone close to them has experienced the effects of climate change to some degree. 13% believe it has affected them in a major way, 37% to some extent, and 23% in a minor way. Only 21% say that climate change has not had any effect on themselves or people close to them.
There is a clear relationship between feeling anxious about climate change and believing that it has affected their lives or someone close to them. Among the 75% of Canadians who think about climate change at least sometimes and are worried about the issue, 61% also believe they have personally experienced the effects of climate change. Among those who say they don’t think about climate change all that much, 40% report no impact on their lives and another 33% say climate change has only impacted them in a minor way. This suggests that as the effects of climate change increase on people’s lives, we should expect to see a rise in concern about the issue.
8 IN 10 CANADIANS SUPPORT A SHIFT TOWARDS CLEAN AND RENEWABLE ENERGY, INCLUDING 44% WHO SAY IN THE FUTURE, CANADA SHOULD PRODUCE ENERGY USING 100% CLEAN AND RENEWABLE SOURCES.
When we start asking respondents about possible solutions and action to climate change, it’s clear that the public understands and supports what’s required to deal with climate change. 44% believe that in the future, “we should produce energy and electricity using 100% clean and renewable sources” while another 37% aren’t convinced that 100% of energy and electricity can be renewable and clean but support a shift towards cleaner technology. Only 11% of Canadians believe that “shifting to clean and renewable energy sources like hydro, solar, and wind are costly and unnecessary.”
Surprisingly, these views are fairly consistent across the country. While Albertans are less likely to support a full transition to clean and renewable energy sources, 28% do while another 47% think that a transition is required but that 100% may not be possible.
We also find a generational divide on this question. Again, while overall Canadians of all ages support a transition to clean and renewable energy sources, younger Canadians (under 45) are about 10 points more likely to think we should produce energy entirely from clean and renewable sources.
In another question, we tell respondents:
“In order to combat climate change, scientists say we must substantially reduce the amount of fossil fuels we use in all aspects of our lives, in society, and in the economy. This includes oil, coal, and natural gas.”
When we follow up that statement and ask, by how much should fossil fuels be reduced to effectively combat climate change, 24% believe we need to move away from fossil fuel use almost completely while 38% say we need to reduce fossil fuel use a lot, change how we produce energy, how we get around, and how our economy works. 6% don’t think we need to reduce the use of any fossil fuels while 22% think we need to reduce some fossil fuel use, but don’t need to fundamentally change the way we live or how the economy works.
Albertans stand out as different from other Canadians on this question. 50% of Albertans think that we don’t need to change our use of fossil fuels or we may need to reduce them but don’t need to fundamentally change how we live or how our economy works. This compares to about one in four Canadians in other parts of the country.
HALF THINK IT’S POSSIBLE TO CUT GHG EMISSIONS BY 50% BY 2030 AND TO BE CARBON-ZERO BY 2050.
When we tell respondents that the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (the world’s top climate scientists) recently issued a report warning that carbon pollution – global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions –must be cut in half by 2030 and that the world must be carbon-zero by 2050, 53% think it is definitely or probably possible to achieve those targets.
But there is still some convincing to be done as most of those who think it is possible are not completely convinced. Only 16% of Canadians at this point think its definitely possible to achieve those targets.
As we’d expect, there is a relationship between perceptions about what’s doable and concern about climate change. Among those who think climate change is an extremely serious or serious problem (52% of Canadians), 59% say it is definitely or probably possible to achieve the IPCC’s targets. But a sizeable group of those most concerned about the issue are less convinced. 28% think it is probably not possible, and 5% think it is not possible at all while 7% are unsure.
This points to the importance of connecting clear and realistic action and solutions with the increasing concern people are feeling.
ABOUT 6 IN 10 FEEL THAT THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT IS DOING TOO LITTLE TO COMBAT CLIMATE CHANGE.
Given the extent of concern about the issue, there’s a sense among a majority of Canadians that the federal government is not doing enough to combat climate change. 57% think the federal government is doing too little, 18% think it is doing enough, while 9% think it is doing too much.
This view is shared in most parts of the country and among all demographic groups. Younger Canadians are more likely to think the federal government isn’t doing enough than older Canadians while women are 7-points more likely than men to feel this way.
FRAMING CLIMATE ACTION: 1 IN 3 THINK WE SHOULD MOBILIZE AS WE DID DURING WWII WHILE 47% THINK GOVERNMENTS NEED TO BE MEASURED AND CAUTIOUS.
Despite the clear concern about most Canadians and the feeling that the federal government is doing too little, only a minority of Canadians feel that mobilizing action as we did during war comes closest to how they see the issue.
33% feel their view is best reflected in the statement:
“Like we did in WWII, our governments need to be ambitious and mobilize everyone to do what is necessary to combat climate change and quickly move our society and economy off fossil fuels.”
While 47% preferred the statement:
“Governments need to be measured and cautious, making sure that moving our society and economy off fossil fuels is not too costly and doesn’t displace too many jobs.”
The remaining 20% said neither statement came closest to their view.
However, when we rephrased the question and asked whether they agree or disagreed that “the climate emergency requires that our governments adopt a wartime-scale response, making major investments to retool our economy, and mobilizing everyone in society to transition off fossil fuels to renewable energy,” 58% either strongly agreed (21%) or agreed (37%) with the statement.
Younger Canadians (under 45) were more likely to agree than older Canadians. Those in Quebec, Ontario, Atlantic Canada, and BC were more likely to agree than those in Alberta. There was no difference across gender, household income or educational groups.
PERSPECTIVES ON SPECIFIC CLIMATE ACTIONS
To understand support and perspectives on several bold actions that the government could take to deal with climate change (ambitious actions that go beyond what the government has currently proposed), we asked respondents two questions about a series of options. First, we asked whether it is possible or not to accomplish a set of goals and then asked whether they support or oppose the action.
Majorities felt it was at least probably possible to transition all government vehicles in its fleet to electric vehicles over the next 5 year; to require all new building and homes in Canada to heat space and water using electricity and not a fossil fuel by 2022; to phase out the extraction and export of fossil fuels over the next 20 to 30 years; to require all existing buildings to switch their fuel source for heating off of fossil fuels by 2040; to end the use of all coal, gas, and oil-generated electricity by 2030; and to ban the sale of all new gas-powered vehicles by 2030.
At the same time, there was broad support or acceptance for all of these goals with support correlated with expectations about whether it was possible or not to achieve them.
We also asked whether several outcomes would make respondents more or less supportive of a bold and ambitious climate action plan. In all cases, respondents said the outcomes would make them more supportive, including 78% who said they would be more supportive if their own income taxes didn’t increase as a result of the plan, 78% who said they would be more supportive if the wealthy and large corporations were required to contribute more in taxes to help pay for plan, and 79% who said they would be more supportive if governments provided financial support to low and modest-income households to help them transition away from fossil fuels.
PERSPECTIVES ON “A GREEN NEW DEAL”
There has been a lot of discussions both in Canada and the United States of a “Green New Deal” that would both seriously tackle climate change and restructure the economy to support those impacted by the transition.
In Canada, only a minority are aware or think they have heard of the term “Green New Deal.” 14% say they have definitely heard something about it while 19% think they have heard something. Awareness is higher among younger Canadians and those with a university degree. Among those aware of the term, about half say they are at least somewhat familiar with it and 69% either strongly (29%) or somewhat support (40%) a made-in-Canada Green New Deal.
When those unaware of the concept or term were told about it, support was very high with 72% either strongly or somewhat supportive. Only 12% were opposed while 17% say they do not have clear views on the issue.
Support for “A Green New Deal” finds support across all demographic, socio-economic, and regional groups. Even in Alberta, 56% who were unaware of the term say they support it based on the description we provided in the survey. Support is highest in Atlantic Canada (79%) and Quebec (77%) and among younger Canadians.
Support for made-in-Canada Green New Deal exists among:
28% of those who oppose phasing out the extraction of all fossil fuels in Canada over the next 20 to 30 years.
35% of those who don’t think climate change is a serious problem.
37% of those who don’t often think about climate change.
48% of those who think shifting to clean and renewable energy is costly and unnecessary.
40% of those who believe we don’t need to reduce the use of any fossil fuels.
72% of those who say the rising cost of living is a serious problem.
68% of those who say they currently work in the oil, gas, or coal industry, or in a job closely related to those sectors.
UPSHOT
For years climate change has been discussed and debated. I remember talking about the Kyoto Accord in my grade 11 geography class over 20 years ago. But this survey confirms what we have seen in other research – Canadians are increasingly concerned about climate change, and many feel they are feeling the effects of it on their day-to-day lives.
What was less clear was whether the public is ready for serious action to deal with the issue. This survey finds broad support for action, including clear majority support for the concept of a made-in-Canada Green New Deal.
There is sufficient public support and acceptance for serious action for political leaders to lead.
But a few points are worth considering for those advocating for serious climate action.
First, while anxiety and worry about climate change is growing, how action is described and communicated matters. While most Canadians feel the federal government is doing too little to tackle climate change, instinctively many Canadians don’t buy into the idea that we need to mobilize action like we did during World War II. At the same time, majorities support aggressive policy outcomes like phasing out all oil and gas extraction within 20 to 30 years, banning the sale of gas-powered vehicles by 2030, or requiring all existing buildings and homes to switch their fuel sources for heating from oil, gas, or propane.
Second, while climate change is seen as a serious issue by most Canadians, there’s also a deeply felt concern about the rising cost of living. Effectively dealing with this issue and addressing it head-on by showing how climate action won’t increase costs substantially or better, will help reduce costs over time, needs to be part of the communicators’ toolbox.
Finally, there is clear evidence that the idea of a made-in-Canada Green New Deal is supported by a majority of Canadians, including many who we might otherwise think would be opposed outright. The merits of the Green New Deal – supporting workers impacted by the transition and investing heavily in achieving the goals – likely help to quell concerns about climate action, even in regions of the country dependent on the oil and gas sector and especially among those currently employed in it.
METHODOLOGY
Our survey was conducted online with 2,000 Canadians aged 18 and over from July 16 to 19, 2019. A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This poll was commissioned by Seth Klein, an adjunct professor with Simon Fraser University’s Urban Studies program (as part of the research for a book he is writing on the climate emergency), with support from the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives –BC Office, and the Corporate Mapping Project.
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
In an election held today, the Conservatives (33%) and the Liberal Party (32%) would match each other in national support. The regional breakdowns of support tend to favour the Liberals at this moment, with Justin Trudeau’s party leading east of Manitoba and tied with the Conservatives in BC. The Conservative vote is heavily concentrated in the Prairies.
The accessible voter pools continue to show the Liberals, Conservatives and NDP all having potential to win support of 45% to 50% of voters nationally. The Green Party potential pool remains higher than in previous years but down a bit from May of this year.
MOOD OF THE COUNTRY
There’s a four-point uptick in the number of people who think the country is on the right track (39%) and a drop in those who say the opposite (41%). The current reading is similar to what we saw in February of this year.
We are also seeing a slight upward movement in performance assessments of the federal government, from a low of 32% approval in April to 36% today.
In the three provinces where the largest number of seats are in play, net government approval went from -13 to -8 in BC, -13 to -5 in Ontario and -2 to +4 in Quebec.
PARTY LEADERS
Feelings about the party leaders show a slight upward movement for Justin Trudeau from March. Today, 36% have a positive feeling about the Liberal leader, while 45% are negative. For Andrew Scheer, the trend lines show that over the last year, positive impressions have climbed by 7 points, but negative impressions have climbed by 9 points. Since April of this year, Mr. Scheer’s negatives are higher than his positives.
NDP leader Jagmeet Singh has 26% positive and 28% negative opinion, and stable patterns for the last few months. Compared to August of last year, the NDP leader has seen a 4-point gain in positive feelings and a 2-point rise in negatives.
For Green Party leader Elizabeth May our latest result shows a 4-point increase in negative feelings. Today 29% say they have a positive view of Ms. May, and 21% negative.
Regionally, Mr. Trudeau’s net approval is -6 in BC, -41 in the Prairies, -7 in Ontario, +5 in Quebec, and +7 in Atlantic Canada. For Mr. Scheer, it’s -3 in BC, +24 in the Prairies, -11 in Ontario, -6 in Quebec, and -10 in Atlantic Canada. NDP Leader is above water in BC at +5, -16 in the Prairies, +2 in Ontario, +1 in Quebec, and -11 in Atlantic Canada.
In April, 34% preferred to see Mr. Trudeau win this fall’s election, compared to 33% for Mr. Scheer. Today’s numbers reflect a slight shift towards Mr. Trudeau, who now leads by 6 points on this indicator, although the numbers have been holding pretty steady since June.
We continue to measure the reputation of several provincial premiers, in part to help understand the impact they may have on the federal campaign this fall. The latest results for Doug Ford show that he remains notably unpopular on a national basis and that his negative ratings in Ontario have continued to rise. Today, just 20% of Ontarians surveyed say they have positive feelings about Premier Ford, compared to 65% who are negative.
UPSHOT
According to Bruce Anderson: “After a rough winter for the Liberals and a period of opportunity for growth for the Conservatives, the race remains very close. There were more headwinds from the Liberal standpoint in March and tailwinds for the Conservatives, and now this may have changed a bit. The safest bet at this point is to assume that more shifting and volatility is likely – but also that the focal point last winter of SNC-Lavalin is no longer a preoccupying topic and major influence on political choice.”
According to David Coletto: “The stalemate continues for another month. The level of stability in the horserace overshadows some movement over the past few months in some of the key leading indicators favouring the incumbent Liberals. The mood of the country may be starting to come out of its post-SNC funk and comparison with what’s happening in other parts of the world, especially in the US and the UK, may be lifting Canadians’ spirits.
All bets are off on how this election ends, but the regional picture gives the Liberals a slight advantage with leads in Ontario and Quebec.”
METHODOLOGY
Our survey was conducted online with 1,422 Canadians aged 18 and over from August 2 to 6, 2019. A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.7%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
