By Bruce Anderson & David Coletto
On the one-year anniversary of the election of the Trudeau government, Canadians continue to show little remorse about the change that their ballots brought about, and instead indicate that they would choose the Liberals again if an election were held tomorrow.
Our latest numbers show:
• Across the country, 45% would vote Liberal (5 points better than their outcome last October), 28% would vote Conservative (down 4), and 14% would vote NDP (down 6).
• In Ontario, where the Liberals won 80 of 121 seats, they claim 48% support, compared to 30% for the Conservatives and 15% for the NDP. The Liberal result is 3 points better than their result last year.
• In Quebec, where the Liberals won 40 of 78 seats, the Liberals enjoy 47% support, compared to 20% for the BQ. The Conservatives and the NDP are tied at 13%, an extraordinary decline for the NDP, which only last September was polling near 50% in the province. The Liberals are 11 points ahead of their result last October 19th.
• In BC, where the Liberals claimed 17 of 42 seats, they also lead with 47% support, compared to 25% for the Conservatives and 17% for the NDP. The Liberals are polling 12 points higher than their election day result.
• In Atlantic Canada, where the Liberals swept all 32 seats with 59% of the vote, they lead with 62% support, 48 points more than either the Conservatives (14%) or the NDP (14%).
According to Bruce Anderson: “The two main opposition parties lack leaders at the moment, and that is something worth taking into account when looking at these numbers.
Still, people are able to evaluate the government and the performance of Mr. Trudeau, and these results speak to a general level of broad satisfaction with the direction that is being set. The Trudeau government has faced a number of tests, including a budget, federal/provincial pressures around energy and health care, the introduction of 25,000 Syrian refugees into Canada, a shift in our role in the fight against ISIS, to name just a few. So far, most voters have observed that Mr. Trudeau seems up to the job and his government is holding onto a pretty solid level of support, despite an economy which can hardly be described as a helping wind.”
According to David Coletto: “One year out from their win, the Liberals have not only kept most of their support from that election but have expanded it in most regions of the country.
For the opposition parties, these results are sobering but also instructive. If I’m the Conservatives, I’m asking myself how can the party better appeal to women and younger voters since the party trails the Liberals by 23 points among women and 25 points among those aged 45 and under.
If I’m the NDP, I’m wondering whether I focus on rebuilding support in Quebec (down to 14% support) or look to other regions with a longer history of supporting the NDP like BC.
These results are not predictive of what will happen three years from now, but do provide some insight into which voter groups Mr. Trudeau’s opponents will need to focus if they hope to defeat him in 2019.”
Our survey was conducted online with 1,498 Canadians aged 18 and over from October 7 to 12, 2016. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians.
The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 1,498 is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
ABACUS DATA INC.
We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value-added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, Ph.D.