As Conservatives Choose and the NDP Race Heats Up, Where Things Stand in Canadian Politics.

It’s been just over a year and a half since the last federal election. Conservatives across the country have been mailing in ballots and their new leader will be known next weekend. The NDP race may now have a final lineup set and switch into a higher gear.

As partisans of each party consider where they’ve been and what they need to accomplish, here’s what our latest trend analysis tells us about the circumstances of the two main opposition parties.

THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY OF CANADA

• Just under half of all voters say they would consider voting Conservative. Under the interim leadership of Rona Ambrose, that number is about what it was during most of the last year in which Stephen Harper was leader. The Conservative accessible voter pool hit a low just before the election at 40%, a level that made it very difficult if not impossible, to win.

The size of the pool has recovered slightly from that low, but the current pool of 46% means that the party is back to where it was in the final months of the Harper era prior to the 2015 Election. The Conservative voter pool is the same size as that of the NDP, and 13 points smaller than that of the Liberal Party.

Regionally, the Conservative voter pool is largest in Alberta (62%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (53%), and Ontario (51%) while smallest in Quebec (32%) and BC (39%). The current ceiling in BC is lower than the actual vote which the Conservative Party and its Reform/Alliance precursors regularly won (40-45%).

• In an election held today, the Conservatives would win 27% of the vote, down 5 points from their result on Election Day 2015. For the last 18 months, the average support for the Conservative Party has been 28%.

• In the last month or so, we saw a spike in support for the Conservative Party in Ontario, which has dissipated. Today, the party is polling 7-points below the level it achieved in the 2015 election in that province. These fluctuations may have had to do with the movement in popularity of the provincial Liberal Party.

• In Quebec, the Conservatives have been tracking steadily in the low teens since the last election, and in our latest measurement would get 14%, compared to the 17% they received in October 2015.

• In BC, the province with the third largest number of seats, our latest measure shows Conservative support at 18%, down 12 points from the election result. The party’s vote share has generally been in the area of 25% over the intervening months since the election.

• For many years, the Conservatives had a built-in electoral advantage: if they trailed the Liberals among younger voters, they more than made up for that by having an advantage among older voters, who were more numerous, and who turned out at a higher rate to cast a ballot. Today, we see the Conservatives trailing the Liberals by more than 10 points among voters over 45, by 16 points among those 30-44 and by 28 points among those under 30.

• Further complicating the electoral math for the party is the fact that by 2019, Millennials (those born between 1980 and 2000) will be the largest segment of the electorate. This will be the first time in over 40 years that Boomers will not make up the largest portion of the electorate.

• Half of Canadian voters consider themselves to be at the centre of the political spectrum (50%) with much smaller numbers on the left (29%) and the right (21%). Today, among self-described centrist voters, the Conservatives would finish third, with 18% support, compared to 22% for the NDP and 47% for the Liberals. The Conservatives have a sizeable advantage among voters on the right (59%), but even among that group, the Liberals claim 32% support.

• In their months as Official Opposition to the Trudeau government, the Conservatives have won the support of 6% of those who voted Liberal, while the Liberals have won 9% of those who voted Conservative.

THE NEW DEMOCRATIC PARTY OF CANADA

• 48% would consider voting NDP today. That number is well below the 60% achieved during the run-up to the last election and lower than the 52% we found just before the vote. In the intervening months, the NDP accessible voter pool has shrunk. At one point the NDP potential pool was 20 points bigger than that of the Conservative Party, today that gap is basically zero.

The NDP’s voter pool is fairly consistent across the country, except in Alberta where only 30% would consider voting for the federal NDP. About half of voters in every other region, including Quebec, would consider voting NDP.

• In terms of current voter intentions, the NDP level of support is identical to the result it achieved at the last election. (20%). The biggest challenge for the NDP in terms of recovering the competitiveness they enjoyed before the last election is in Quebec, where the party at one point enjoyed a 25-point lead over the Liberals and today find themselves 27-points behind for a remarkable 52-point swing in less than two years.

• NDP support is consistent among men and women and across different age groups.

• Perhaps the biggest challenge facing the NDP is seen when we look at voters across the political spectrum. Among voters in the centre, the NDP polls 22%, 27 points behind the Liberals. Among voters on the left, the results are not much better: the NDP claims 26%, well behind the Liberals at 45%.

• Since the election, the NDP have won 8% of those who voted Liberal, and the Liberals have won 8% of those who voted NDP.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “In the last couple of months, our polling showed some narrowing between the Conservatives and Liberals, mostly in Ontario. But our current numbers show that effect has disappeared, and the latest numbers are more like what we’ve been seeing for months.

Looking back over time provides a clear reminder that things can change – sometimes quickly and dramatically. The gains the Liberals have made can obviously not be taken for granted – voters give support and are always ready to take it away. That having been said, the government has taken policy initiatives that had the potential to cause significant trauma to their support levels – pipeline approvals, budget deficits, carbon pricing, refugee acceptance to name a few – and so far their support levels are holding up fairly well. These findings also underscore again how many issues that have the potential to preoccupy the House and the Hill often fail to capture the attention of most voters whose lives don’t revolve around politics.

As the Conservatives mark their ballots the numbers are another important signal that expanding the base and becoming more competitive among younger voters and non-ideological centrist voters is necessary for success. If Maxime Bernier is the winner of the Conservative race, the big question is whether his brand of conservatism is well suited to that task?

For the NDP, the challenge is perplexing if not the first time they’ve faced it. In a nutshell, they need to be more needed by the left and more relevant to the centre. Otherwise, their best hope will be a repeat of the disappointment of the 2015 election.”

According to David Coletto: “To me, this poll is more sobering and than reassuring to Canada’s two largest opposition parties.

For the Conservatives, its voter pool has rebounded from its lowest point just before the 2015 election. But the hurdles its new leader will face in rebuilding its past electoral coalition or constructing a new one are substantial. Its voter pool is in the 30s in both BC and Quebec (the second and third largest provinces). Only 40% of the soon to be the largest generation in the electorate, Millennials, would consider voting Conservative (5-points less than the Green Party) and the party has been squeezed to third place among the all-important “centrist” voters.

The NDP sits at pretty much the same place it has been for the past 18 months. It’s vote share is unchanged nationally, but is far from leading in any region of the country. While half of the electorate is open to voting NDP, including half of those who voted Liberal in 2015, it trails the Liberals across all demographic groups as well as those who self-identify as being on the left of the political spectrum.

The bottom line for the Conservative Party is that the electorate is shifting in a less Conservative-friendly direction. Millennial voters are becoming more powerful and the party needs to seriously consider how to appeals to this big group of voters. For the NDP, there is potential but the party needs dissatisfaction with Mr. Trudeau and the Liberals among progressive voters to rise while offering them something unique and distinct from the Liberal platform to switch to.”

Listen to our audio briefing about this poll: 

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 1,182 Canadians aged 18 and over from May 10 to 12, 2017. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 1,407 is +/- 2.9%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABACUS DATA INC.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value-added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, Ph.D.

Canadian PoliticsMediaPolls

Transition from Fossil Fuels? Not all that Controversial.

One of the most topical political debates in Canada in recent months has been about how much our economy should depend in the future on harnessing fossil fuel resources.

In our latest survey, we decided to do some more probing to understand current feelings.

• Canadians tend to believe that demand for oil is more likely to rise than fall over the coming 10 years but as likely to fall as rise if we look 30 years out. The number of people who foresee falling demand more than doubles from 17% in 10 years to 39% in 30 years.

• We asked people what they would like to see happen to demand for oil, in an ideal world. While 51% felt demand for oil would grow over 10 years, only half that number 24% would like that to be the case. Almost twice as many prefer to see demand for oil decline (44%).

Looking out 30 years, only 19% would like to see demand rising, while roughly three times that many (55%) would prefer to see demand falling.

• It’s not surprising that Albertans see some of these issues differently, but the differences are smaller than might be expected. In that province only 54% expect oil demand to grow over the next 10 years. Thirty years out, 47% of Albertans expect demand will be rising, while 37% expect it will be falling.

• When it comes to what Albertans would like to see happen, a plurality hopes to see demand rising both at the 10-year (50%) and 30-year mark (39%), however, the proportions reveal mixed feelings even within a province which has experienced such significant benefit from oil resources.

We then explored a little bit more how people felt about the role of oil and gas in economic strategy for Canada and Alberta in the future.

With the preamble “oil and gas has been a big contributor to Canada’s economic well-being for decades”…we asked if people to choose whether “Canada’s priority should be to promote the use of Canada’s oil and gas because this is good for our economy”, or “ Canada should put a priority on other ways of growing our economy because in the future oil and gas will be replaced by other energy sources”.

• By a two to one margin, people favoured the more diversified approach, including 3 out of 4 Liberal and NDP voters. Among Albertans and Conservatives, opinion was almost evenly split. Millennial voters are 9-points more likely than baby boomers to want something other than a priority on oil and gas.

• We asked the same question about Alberta’s economic future. Almost identical numbers 66% v 34% said Alberta should prioritize other ways of growing its economy, including a majority of Albertans (56%) and 48% of Conservative voters.


Finally, we probed on whether people believe that a transition away from fossil fuels is necessarily harmful to the economy or whether such a shift could be done in a way that might end up creating an even stronger economic future.

• Three out of four (74%) people believe “if we are smart and thoughtful in how we plan a transition away from fossil fuels, Canada’s economy can be even more successful in the future”. Most Albertans (64%) and Conservative voters (61%) agree. Only 26% across the country believe that “no matter how hard we try, Canada’s economy will suffer in the future if demand for oil and gas is replaced by demand for other types of energy.”

• Confidence that Alberta could navigate a transition successfully is almost as high. Two out of three across Canada, and in Alberta believe a smart and thoughtful transition can see an even stronger Alberta economy in the future. Most Conservative voters (55%) also believe this can happen.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “In political and media circles, it can be characterized as controversial to talk about a transition away from a fossil fuel dependent economy. But for most voters, the idea doesn’t seem radical – they sense that given future demand for oil, it’s better considered inevitable.

Some environmental advocates may look at these numbers and worry that Canadians seem comfortable with a too gradual shift. However, a reasonable interpretation would be that people want a shift that can be accelerated, provided it is thoughtful about limiting economic disruption while seeking to create new economic opportunity.

Canadians, and many in Alberta as well believe a transition from a more fossil fuel dependent economy is, not so much a question of “whether”, but how and how fast.”

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 1,500 Canadians aged 18 and over from April 21 to 24, 2017. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 1,500 is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20. For the split-sample questions, the margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 750 is +/-  3.7%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

For questions related to the best way forward for Canada and Alberta and whether transition away from oil and gas would be good for Canada or Alberta, we split the sample. A random half of the 1,500 respondents were asked questions related to “Canada” while the other half were asked questions related to “Alberta”.

ABACUS DATA INC.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value-added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, Ph.D.

MediaPolls

Recruit, Attract, Grow: Canadians Want an Ambitious Plan

While many are concerned about the potential impacts on the Canadian economy that could result from tax and trade measures in the United States under President Donald Trump, Canadians think now is the time for Canada to be ambitious and seek new opportunity where it can be found.

Here’s are some key findings from our most recent study:

• Almost everyone likes the idea of Canada trying hard to attract more leading researchers from all over the world to come to Canada (87%) and do their work here.

• Almost as many, 81%, say Canada should try hard to attract more investors from all over the world. Our survey last year on this topic revealed that most Canadians believe there is a real opportunity for Canada to succeed in this endeavour.

To underscore the fact that Canadians do not believe Canada should take a passive approach in the face of trade threats from the White House, we asked whether Canada should look for opportunities where US policies might create disruption and potential interest in Canada.

• 89% say Canada should make a special effort to draw more international businesses to locate in Canada rather than the US.

• 73% say Canada should work to attract a lot of tourists who don’t know if they are welcome in America right now.

• Two-thirds (65%) say Canada should work to attract a lot of talented workers who don’t know if they are welcome in America right now.

While many economic policy choices can reveal deep partisan or regional cleavages, for the most part, these ideas don’t.  The large majority of people in all regions and across the three major parties like the idea of working to attract researchers and investment, and endorse the idea of making a special effort to reach those who may feel unwelcome in the US today.

 

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “Many Canadians think there is a moment of opportunity for Canada, not only a substantial risk of US trade and tax measures that could unsettle conditions in Canada.  People see this country as having lots to offer talent and investment capital from around the world, and believe we should make strenuous, special efforts to reach out an attract it, especially since some may feel less certain of the welcome they would receive in the US.

For governments, this is a clear signal that people want our best defense on trade issues, but don’t want Canada to only play defense – in fact the large majority see this as a moment of ambition, and are anxious that our political leadership seize the moment caused by political uncertainty in other parts of the world, to extol Canada’s advantages.” 

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 1,500 Canadians aged 18 and over from April 21 to 24, 2017. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys.   The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 1,500 is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABACUS DATA INC.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value-added insight.  Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, Ph.D.

International AffairsPolls

Globalism and Nationalism in Canada

Around the world political behaviour is influenced by attitudes about economic development, globalization and trade, and immigration. The election of Donald Trump, support for Brexit, and far-right movements in France and other European countries is often linked to concerns about globalization of trade and political control as well as rapid technological change. Many wonder if Canada is ripe for similar political upheaval.

To explore in greater depth Canadian attitudes towards globalization, technological change, immigration, and diversity, we developed a statistically-based segmentation to describe so-called “nationalist” and “globalist” influences Canada.  Here’s what we found:

More Canadians (58%) are “globalist” than “nationalist” (43%) in their general orientation. Sizeable proportions have particularly strong versions of these feelings: 24% could be called “ultra-globalist” and 16% “ultra-nationalist“.

Globalists are in the majority in every region except for Quebec, where there’s an equal split between the two groups. Millennials are more likely to hold globalist attitudes (63%) than Baby Boomers (55%).

A clear majority of those who identify as upper or upper-middle class, middle class, and working class fall into the globalist group while those who identify as lower class are split between the two. Six in ten of those with college or university education are globalists while the slight majority of those with high school education or less are nationalist.

Globalists feel globalization has raised the standard of living for the poor around the world, that Canada should neither stop or slow immigration, that diversity is not a problem in Canada, and that globalization has not harmed their own economic well-being. Effectively all globalists (98%) agree that Canada is a better country because of its ethnic and cultural diversity.

Nationalists feel Canada should slow or stop immigration in the next few years and that there’s too much diversity in Canada. They are more likely to think Canada should try to be more like the US, and less likely to think that globalization and technological change have been good for them personally.

Most globalists feel good about the direction of the country and approve of the job the Trudeau government is doing. Among nationalists, more disapprove.

Nationalism is tied to personal economic anxiety – globalists think their economic prospects are improving, nationalists feel they are getting worse.

The Liberals won all segments in the last election. Current voting intentions show Conservatives with an 18-point lead among the ultra-nationalists and an 11-point lead among the lean nationalists while the Liberals continue to have significant advantages among ultra globalists (33-points) and the lean globalists (9-points).

The huge cleavage between the views of ultra-globalists and ultra-nationalists is powerful, on cultural issues (ultra-nationalists are 76 points more likely to think there is too much diversity in Canada) and on globalization (ultra-nationalists are 64 points more likely to feel globalization has been bad for their own economic well-being). However, the gap on the impact of technology is only 30 points, suggesting many ultra-nationalists in Canada do not believe that technological disruption is causing their economic distress.

To test the potential linkage to authoritarianism, we asked whether Canada would be better off run by a “successful businessman, someone with strong views, who tells it like it is”, 77% of ultra-nationalists and 62% of lean nationalists agree with this idea, while most globalists reject it.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “It would be a mistake to imagine there is no racism in this country, or that economic distress doesn’t build resistance to immigration.  But it would also be a mistake to overestimate the size of these phenomena in Canada. The ultra-nationalist 16% are an important political constituency, drawing strength from the themes developed by candidates like Conservative Kellie Leitch and some comfort from the rise of similar political movements in the US and elsewhere.

While economic analysis shows that much economic dislocation has more to do with technological disruption than immigration, people tend to see it as a lesser factor, in part because they embrace technology in their everyday lives, and the specific impacts can be hard to spot.  Also, it may simply be easier for some people to blame immigrants or immigration policy than to imagine a more complex and challenging set of forces.

Canadian politics is usually a battle around the centre of the spectrum, with economic confidence playing a huge role. What we saw in the last federal election, and what these numbers confirm again, is that cultural values have also become an important variable in how people see the future of the country, and how they evaluate their political choices.  The Liberals can win when they unite those with globalist views; Conservatives struggle if they too closely associate with nationalistic urges.  “

According to David Coletto: “The majority of Canadians hold clear globalist attitudes. They see the value of technological change and globalization and think diversity and immigration in Canada are assets, not liabilities. They are typically younger, more urban, and are more optimistic about the future.

But there is a substantial minority who hold different views about the value of diversity, immigration, and globalization to Canada and themselves. The most extreme of this group represents 16% of the population.

These ultra-nationalists overwhelmingly think immigration should be stopped or slowed, that there’s too much diversity in Canada, and globalization has been bad for their lot in life. While less intense in their views, another 27% lean towards the nationalist side and share many of the opinion attitudes about immigration and globalization.

So, is Canada immune to a populist uprising driven by nationalist, anti-immigration sentiment? It’s hard to conclude that it is not, especially given our political system that can allow minority opinions to be translated into governing majorities.

There is a path for a charismatic political leader to tap these anxieties and mobilize the minority into action, especially if globalists split their votes across parties who share their outlook. Given that 44% of Canadians and 68% of nationalist Canadians agree that Canada would be better off run by someone with strong views and who tells it like it is, we shouldn’t take for granted that what happened in the United States or in Europe can’t migrate here.

But anti-globalism is not the majority viewpoint in Canada and generational differences will likely reduce its prevalence in society over time. But this requires a feeling among the majority that globalization, diversity and technological change are things that do more good than harm.”

TAKE OUR QUIZ

Now it’s your turn to find out which group you most align with.

Please answer these seven questions and our model will tell you which group you most likely fit into.

https://abacusdata.ca/globalism_nationalist_quiz/

METHODOLOGY 

Our survey was conducted online with 1,500 Canadians aged 18 and over from April 21 to 24, 2017. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys.   The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 1,500 is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABACUS DATA INC.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value-added insight.  Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, Ph.D.

MediaTechnology

Globalization, Technology, Immigration And Politics In Canada

In recent years, much of the political upheaval that has been seen in democracies including the UK and the US appears to have to do with the impacts of globalization and technology on the economic confidence of people.  We decided to explore how Canadians perceive these topics.  Here’s what we found.

THE ROLE OF TECHNOLOGY

The large majority believe that technological change has been good for the world (89%) and almost as many (76%) think it has been good for their own economic well-being.  Most people (62%) also believe continued technological change is inevitable, “whether we like it or not”.

The broad consensus that technological change has been good for the world crosses party lines, generations, and self-defined class status.  Where some differences are apparent is when it comes to the personal benefits of technological change: baby boomers, NDP voters, and self-described working/lower class Canadians are less sure of the upside, but majorities in every case are of the view that the impact has been positive for them personally. 

THE ROLE OF GLOBALIZATION

A two-thirds majority (68%) of Canadians believe that globalization has “helped raise the standard of living for many poor people around the world”. At the same time, almost half (43%) feel “globalization has been harmful to the economic well-being of a fair number of people in affluent countries”. On a personal level, one in three (32%) believe that “globalization has been bad for my own economic well-being.”

Majorities among all generations, supporters of all parties and all classes believe globalization has helped the poor around the world, but New Democrats, baby boomers and those who consider themselves working/lower class are less convinced that this has happened.

These differences are more muted when it comes to the number of people who say they have been hurt by the impact of globalization. 

THE FUTURE OF THE ECONOMY

We asked whether people thought a variety of factors were likely to be more helpful or harmful to Canada’s future economic prospects.  We found:

• There is close to anonymity that technological advances and the Internet, in particular, are positive forces for the future of Canada’s economy.

• Three out of four people (73%) think “globalization including trade agreements” will have a positive influence on Canada’s future.

• Opinion is more uncertain and almost evenly split on the impact of immigration and “artificial intelligence and automation.”

There are some important differences by class and partisanship. On artificial intelligence/ automation, the majority of those in the upper/upper middle class say this will be a positive force, while the majority of those who self-describe as working or lower class take the opposite view.  A small majority (55%) of Liberals see it as a positive, while a small majority (55%) of New Democrats see it as a negative.

On immigration, Conservatives see it as a negative, Liberals as a positive, and New Democrats are evenly split.  Class based and age differences are also evident.

On globalization, differences are much more muted. Lots of supporters of all major parties see a positive effect, as do all generations and different self-described classes.

A complex relationship exists between these various points of confidence or apprehension.   We’ll explore these relationships in more detail in an upcoming release about globalism and nationalism, however, some of the highlights that we see are as follows:

• People who are pessimistic about Canada’s economic future are twice as likely to see immigration as a threat, compared to those who are optimistic.

• An 18% segment of the adult population are fearful about the impact of technological advances, artificial intelligence, the Internet, globalization, and immigration.

• A separate 28% segment are worried about artificial intelligence/automation and immigration but don’t show the same level of apprehension about other technological advances, or globalization. 

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “Canadian attitudes are different from those which have given rise to nationalist economic politics in the US and elsewhere.  While opinion is somewhat divided on the upside of immigration, Canadians are fairly united when it comes to seeing the value of globalization and trade arrangements with other countries.

The question of technology is becoming more complex or nuanced.  On the whole, Canadians see big upsides to the technological revolution that has transformed world economies. However, there is already a fair bit of anxiety about the dislocation that may occur as a result of artificial intelligence and automation.

The numbers signal some potential for these issues to become class-based and partisan in nature, but so far, the differences are more modest than they appear to be in other countries, where the debate about globalism and nationalism is front and centre, and already highly charged.  Based on these patterns, it’s reasonable to expect that in Canada the policy pressures from the left will be about cushioning impacts of dislocation and creating new employment opportunities, while from the right they will include pressure on immigration.”

According to David Coletto: “Although we find a broad consensus among Canadians for the value of technological advancement and globalization to Canada’s economic future, it doesn’t mean these attitudes are static. It wasn’t that long ago that Republicans in the United States were more likely to favour trade and international engagement. Today, their views have shifted markedly as political leaders such as Donald Trump and other Republicans have railed against globalism and trade.

In Canada, the audience for these arguments is smaller but not politically insignificant. A growing opinion gap between those in different classes or educational groups suggests Canada is not immune to the forces of nationalism and anti-globalism. Managing these attitudes requires both political leadership that refuses to play upon these fears and economic and social policies that produce what some term “inclusive growth”.

In a future release, we will explore in more depth the prevalence of globalist and nationalist attitudes in Canada and profile the size and make up of these two points of view that are shaping the economic and political life of countries across the developed world.”

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 1,500 Canadians aged 18 and over from April 21 to 24, 2017. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys.   The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 1,500 is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABACUS DATA INC.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value-added insight.  Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, Ph.D.

MediaTechnology

A Tepid Economic Temperature: Is Class Conflict Coming to Canada?

Over the years, we’ve explored how people feel about the economy in a number of different ways. In our latest survey, we were interested to see what we would find if we used the same questions Gallup has used to measure the sentiments of Americans and to see how similar the reactions of Canadians would be. We also assess the potential for a populist reaction as we’ve seen in the United State, Britain, and France.

Here’s what we found:

CURRENT FINANCIAL SITUATION?

Half (48%) describe their personal financial situation as excellent or good in Canada, another 36% would say it is fair, and 16% say “poor’.

While partisan choices can sometimes have a lot to do with financial well-being, it doesn’t right now: 54% of Liberals say their situation is excellent or good, while 47% of Conservatives and New Democrats do as well.

There also isn’t much difference between younger people and older people: 46% of those under 30 and 47% of those 60 or older say their situation is excellent or good.

The biggest difference, not surprisingly, has to do with income: those with household incomes below $50,000 are twice as likely to describe their financial situation as fair or poor (74% vs. 36%) compared to those with higher incomes.

THINGS IMPROVING OR GETTING WORSE?

Just over half (56%) say their situation is getting better, compared to 44% who say it is getting worse. Again, there are partisan differences, but perhaps less dramatic than might be expected, if one believed in the thesis that political choice is all “about the economy”.

A majority of Liberals (65%) say their situation is getting better, as do about half (48%) of Conservative and NDP voters.

Millenials are among the most likely (68%) to say their situation is getting better.

Among those with incomes below $50,000, 44% say their situation is getting better compared with 63% and 69% in higher income brackets.

ENOUGH MONEY TO LIVE COMFORTABLY?

A small majority (56%) say they have enough money to live comfortably; 44% say they do not. Remarkably, these numbers vary by only 4 points from a low of 53% in BC to 57% in Quebec.

By partisanship, Conservatives (61%) and Liberals (62%) are within a point of each other, and 55% of NDP supporters say they have enough to live comfortably.

Again, challenging the thesis of a distressed Millennial cohort: 61% of those under 30 say they have enough, as do 60% of those 60 and older.

By income, $50,000 is something a dividing line: below it, less than half have enough, above it, most say they do.

ARE YOU A SAVER OR A SPENDER?

We asked people if they “more enjoy spending money, or more enjoy saving money.” A clear majority (62%) of self-identify as savers, with only modest variations across region, and age, and no difference by gender. NDP voters were the most likely to say they were savers (69%) while Conservatives (61%) and Liberals (62%) were not far behind, and identical.

WHAT IS YOUR SOCIAL CLASS?

When asked to choose which class they were in from a list of options provided, 1% said they were “upper class”. None of those people lived west of Ontario, and no New Democrats self-defined that way. Just over one in ten (12%) said they were “upper middle class.”

The plurality across the country (45%), and in every region, age, income group, and gender, self-defined as “middle class”. Another 29% said they were working class, and 13% chose “lower class”.

Asked what they thought their answer to this question would be five years from now, the number of people who said they would be upper class rose by 2 points, “upper middle” rose by 5 points, the number who said they would be working class dropped by 9 points.

Only 10% of “middle class” identifiers thought they would move down the scale (6% to working class, 4% to lower class), while 31% of those who self-identified as “working class” said in five years they would be in the “middle class”.

OPTIMISTIC ABOUT CANADA’S ECONOMY?

When asked about the future of the Canadian economy, 53% say they are optimistic, compared to 47% who are pessimistic. Younger people are more optimistic than older people. Albertans are as optimistic as Ontario residents.

The biggest differences revolve around partisanship: Conservative voters are far more pessimistic about the economy than average (65%). We also see a difference depending on one’s self-identified class.

IS A CLASS WAR ON THE HORIZON?

Some have argued that Canada is on the brink of intense class-based conflict. Our data would draw attention to one in five (19%) who self-identify as working or lower class, say their economic situation as fair or poor, say it is getting worse, and don’t have enough money to live comfortably.These Canadians show some of the signs associated with populist voting

These Canadians show some of the signs associated with populist voting behaviour elsewhere. Compared to other Canadians they are 18 points more likely to believe immigration is more harmful than helpful to Canada’s economy, and 17 points more convinced that technology has been bad for their economic well-being.

However, only 20% think Canada should be more like the United States, which is right on the national average. And, in the last federal election, most of them voted for a progressive option (39% Liberal, 23% NDP, 29% Conservative.

COMPARING CANADIANS WITH AMERICANS

Comparing our survey with those of recent Gallup survey findings reveals remarkably small differences in how people on either side of the 49th parallel feel:

• 52% of Americans say their financial situation is excellent or good, 48% in Canada
• 54% in America say their situation is getting better; 56% in Canada.
• 61% of Americans say they are savers; in Canada, 62%.
• 43% of Americans define themselves as middle class, compared to 45% in Canada Canadians. 30% of Americans say they are working class, compared to 29% in Canada.

In Canada, slightly fewer identify as upper or upper-middle (18% in the US 13% in Canada), and slightly more say they are lower class (8% in the US, 13% in Canada)

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “These data paint a picture of a Canada that is neither broadly enthusiastic nor deeply dissatisfied with current financial conditions.

Those who imagine a deep generational divide will find little in these numbers to buttress that thesis. Younger people are not all that different from older people in terms of their sense of economic well-being, and indeed are more optimistic.

Economic conditions are often discussed as the axis point around which almost all political choice falls (recall “it’s the economy, stupid” from the Clinton-Bush election), however, our numbers suggest that these are playing muted role in political preference in Canada today.

There are important differences based on household income, but these don’t appear to be, at this point anyway, coalescing into something that looks like an incipient class war. It’s notable that of the 19% who show the greatest economic stress, almost equal numbers voted NDP and Conservative in 2015, while more voted for the centre-progressive Liberals.

The US economy is similar in some ways to Canada’s, but also has major differences too. Despite that, the number of people who feel good or bad about their circumstance, and who identify as middle or working class is remarkably similar – suggesting that while these views have something to do with actual financial conditions, they may, in fact, have more to do with expectations, optimism, pessimism, and psychology more generally.”

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 1,500 Canadians aged 18 and over from April 21 to 24, 2017. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 1,500 is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABACUS DATA INC.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value-added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, Ph.D.

MediaPolls

Disruption in the Canadian News Business

Yesterday we looked at news bias and fake news. In our latest survey, we examined a range of questions about how Canadians access news content with a focus on TV news and newspapers. This is our second release on this topic.

Here’s what we found:

• About one in three (36%) watch a national news broadcast every night, another 24% say they watch once or twice a week. About one in five (18%) never watch a national news broadcast, including 25% of Millennials. The age differential on this question was striking. Among Baby Boomers (aged 55 to 71) 50% watch every night; among Millennials (aged 18 to 37), the number drops to 15%.

• Just 16% read a physical copy of a newspaper every day – more people (28%) say they never do. Even among Baby Boomers (55 to 71), only 23% say they read a physical paper every day, and 24% say they never do.

• For podcasts, a content format that didn’t exist only a few years ago, 20% listen at least once a week, including 5% who say they listen to a podcast every day. Half (50%) overall have at least sampled podcasts, led by Millennials (67%) — 10% of whom listen daily.

• Given the series of financial disappointments for Postmedia, we asked people how the potential demise of that company would affect them. The majority (56%) say it “won’t really affect me”, and another 39% say “I’ll be disappointed but I’ll use other ways to be informed.” One in twenty (5%) said “it will be a big problem for me in terms of being able to stay in touch with the news I need.

• Differences across generations and across regions were rather modest. There was no significant difference between those living in urban or rural areas.

• The most disappointed are those who currently read a physical newspaper every day. 14% felt it would be a big problem for them while another 52% said they would be disappointed, but they will use other ways to be informed.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “Massive change in media habits has been evident all over the world and Canadians are experiencing this as well. The long term dominant role of nightly news and physical newspapers is clearly being displaced by a variety of other means of news consumption, a process led by younger generations who want their news not by appointment, but on demand. They also want it to follow them wherever they are, not require them to arrange a delivery or watch on a TV screen.

Given the extensive disruption, it is perhaps not that surprising that so many people seem to shrug off the implications of the potential demise of the country’s leading chain of newspapers. But while policy makers and journalists may be worried about this scenario, few in the public see it as a game changer.

While our release yesterday showed no sense of deep grievance about the state of journalism in Canada, these numbers show rather weak attachment to or knowledge of the fundamentals required to gather and get them news that people need every day. People may be more sanguine than the situation warrants.”

According to David Coletto: “These results offer further evidence of substantial disruption affecting the news media business happening all over the world. Driven by technological changes and accelerated by generational change, how Canadians consume media is changing rapidly.

Only 15% of Canadian Millennials read a physical newspaper every day, 35-points less likely than their Baby Boomer parents. As Millennials show their parents how to access the content they want on-demand and wherever they are, I expect these numbers to change quickly over the next few years. The “generational contagion” we see in news media consumption is mirrored in other sectors as well.”

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 1,500 Canadians aged 18 and over from April 21 to 24, 2017. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 1,500 is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABACUS DATA INC.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value-added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, Ph.D.

MediaPollsTechnology

Canadian News Media And “Fake News” Under A Microscope

In our latest survey, we examined a range of questions about how Canadians see the media today and their exposure to “fake news”.  Over the next few days we will release three reports on what we learned.

Here’s what we found:

•  People are twice as likely to say the quality of journalism is declining (26%) as improving (13%). However, this is significantly affected by the views of Conservative voters, who are far more likely to say journalism is deteriorating (42%)

•  85% say they have been exposed to “fake news stories” including 47% who say “quite a few” stories. Most (57%) of those who’ve been exposed to fake news said they read the stories.  Among those who read fake news stories half said their views were affected and they were misled.

•   We estimate that about 24.5 million Canadian adults have been exposed to “fake news” and 14.1 million have read content. About 7.5 million have said their opinion had been improperly informed because of the “fake news” they read.

•   On the question of media bias, 58% think “the news media generally favour one political party over another, with Conservative voters 15 points more likely to feel this way than Liberal voters (69% versus 54%). Millennials were also far more likely than average to perceive a bias, as are residents of Alberta.

•   We asked about perceived biases of different media outlets, and in most cases, roughly half saw no bias. The tendency was to see a Liberal bias at CBC, a Conservative bias at the National Post and Sun Newspapers, a slight tendency to see a Liberal bias at the CTV and Global, and mixed opinions about the Globe and Mail.

•   We did find differences of opinion depending on the party respondents said they voted for in the 2015 Federal Election.

•   Conservative voters were more likely to perceive a bias in the news media overall, particularly at the CBC. But at least a third of Conservative voters felt that CTV, Global, and the Globe and Mail favoured the Liberal Party and one in five felt the National Post and the Sun newspapers favoured the Liberal Party.

•   Liberal and NDP voters held varied views but not substantially different from Conservatives. Both were more likely to feel that the CBC tended to favour the Liberals while the Sun and National Post favoured the Conservatives.  Interestingly, Liberal voters were more likely to feel the Globe favours the Tories as opposed to the Liberals.  The opposite view held by Conservative voters.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: Canadian views of the media reveal a degree of concern with the way things have been going, but something short of profound dismay.  While more people see a decline in quality than seeing an improvement, the majority opinion is that things aren’t changing that much.

However, there is broad awareness of and exposure to “fake news”, and many people say that this phenomenon has hampered their ability to form proper opinions.

Most Canadians believe major media outlets harbour political biases, although the tendency to believe this is quite a bit stronger among Conservative voters than others. Also interesting is that when it comes to translating that feeling of systemic bias into view of individual news outlets, Canadians seem a bit more tentative.

The extent to which Conservative voters see a bias that works against their interest is the most notable finding here: it is likely both the fuel for and the product of the anti-“mainstream news” themes employed by conservative partisans in recent years.

METHODOLOGY 

Our survey was conducted online with 1,500 Canadians aged 18 and over from April 21 to 24, 2017. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys.   The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 1,500 is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABACUS DATA INC.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value-added insight.  Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, Ph.D.

MediaPollsTechnology

Was Kevin O’Leary the Conservative Party’s best hope to beat Trudeau? Data suggests he wasn’t.

Yesterday, Kevin O’Leary shocked many, including myself, by dropping out of the Conservative Party leadership race.

In announcing his decision, O’Leary claimed that while he thought he could win the leadership, he feared he would be unable to win a general election because of an inability to win enough support in Quebec.

Data we collected over the past weekend confirms Mr. O’Leary’s assessment that he did not have a clear path to beating Prime Minister Trudeau. However, Quebec wasn’t his only liability.

In our survey, we asked respondents samples they would be more likely to vote for Mr. Trudeau or one of the candidates for the Conservative Party leadership if that person was elected leader. Respondents were shown a random set of 3 hypothetical scenarios as a way to test the pulling power of the main leadership candidates.

The results show that Mr. O’Leary, despite a wide advantage in name recognition and a high profile leadership campaign, has not been any more successful in growing the Conservative Party tent with the general public or the group of voters accessible to the Conservative Party. Our survey in February found his negatives had almost doubled among the general public.

In fact, a deeper analysis suggests Mr. O’Leary, along with Kellie Leitch, could have the opposite effect and stymie growth opportunities for the Conservative Party.

I computed a push and pull score for each candidate we tested. The push score is the percentage of 2015 Conservative voters who say they would be more likely to vote for Mr. Trudeau. The pull score is computed as the aggregate percent of the electorate who voted for a party other than the Conservative Party in 2015 but say they would be attracted to the party if it was lead by the candidate mentioned. Recognizing this is a crude measure, it does give us some insight into the potential impact of each of the leading Conservative candidates.



The data shows that Mr. O’Leary and Ms. Leitch both have a net negative impact on potential party support while all the other candidates either have the potential to grow party support marginally or at least have a mostly neutral effect on it. Since so few Canadians know who these other candidates, they are more likely blank slates and their push/pull scores are more a factor of partisanship and views on Mr. Trudeau than a preference for the candidate.

Moreover, the net impact of the Conservative Party’s leadership race seems to have done little to grow the party’s appeal beyond those who voted for it in 2015.

So when Kevin O’Leary said he didn’t see a clear path to victory in a general election, our data supports that assertion. And as the one candidate with substantial profile across the country, his inability to grow support for his party is evidence he may have had a difficult time when trying to appeal to the general public.

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 1,500 Canadians aged 18 and over from April 21 to 24, 2017. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys.   The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 1,500 is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Media

Tensions Rising: Canadian Views on Foreign Conflict, China, & Trudeau in an International Crisis

For generations, Canada’s interests, foreign policy and view of the world has been aligned with that of the United States.  This alignment has not always been perfect and disputes have arisen on occasions, but today there are reasons to wonder if the future will be different from the past when it comes to how closely Canadians feel to our neighbors to the south.

Currently, only 20% feel “Canada should try to be more like the United States” while 80% disagree with that idea.

There is a broad feeling among Canadians (79%) that tensions around the world are rising, while only 3% say that tensions are easing. Given that US President Trump has adopted a more aggressive approach with a number of countries around the world, we wanted to know how Canadians would react to the possibility of armed conflict. Here’s what we found.

SYRIA

20% would want Canada to join a military effort to remove President Assad of Syria.  Another 32% would want Canada to express support but not provide military aid. 30% would favour neutrality and 18% say they would want Canada to oppose a conflict and urge diplomatic solutions. 

NORTH KOREA

20% say that Canada should join the US if it enters a military conflict with North Korea. Another 26% say we should express support for the US but no military participation. 30% say we should take a neutral position, and 24% say we should oppose conflict and urge diplomatic solutions.

RUSSIA

Only 14% would want Canada to join the US militarily in a conflict with Russia, and another 18% would favour moral support.  33% would prefer neutrality and 35% would want Canada to oppose such a conflict.

CHINA

Only 10% say Canada should join the US militarily if it entered into a conflict with China, and only 17% would want Canada to express support (but no military participation.  34% would favour neutrality and 39% say Canada should express opposition to a conflict.

In short, no more than 20% would want Canada to join the US in any of these hypothetical armed conflicts, while about half or more in each case would prefer to see Canada take a neutral position or oppose conflict and urge diplomacy.

These results vary somewhat, but not all that much, by party affiliation. Conservative voters are more likely to support the idea of joining the US militarily, but still, only 30% of CPC voters would want our troops involved in a Syrian invasion, 32% in a conflict with North Korea, just 21% with Russia and only 16% with China.

CONFIDENCE IN PM TRUDEAU

We asked respondents to let us know how much confidence they had in Prime Minister Trudeau if he were “faced with an international crisis”.

  • 70% have a great deal or a good amount of confidence Mr. Trudeau would “manage our relationship with our allies well”, including 38% of CPC voters and 69% of NDP voters.
  • 63% have confidence he would “weigh all the options carefully before making a decision”, including 33% of CPC voters and 58% of NDP voters.
  • 62% have confidence he would “make the right decision for Canada”, including 29% of CPC voters and 57% of NDP voters.

COMPARING CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES

Given the emergence of China as a high-profile participant in global discussions in recent years as well as one of the most important economies in the world, we decided to ask Canadians to compare the US and China on a number of dimensions.

The results paint a remarkable picture where China is seen as playing a more positive role in some respects even that Canada’s closest traditional ally.

Majorities say China is:

• Doing more than the US to try to maintain peace and avoid conflict (61%)

• Doing more than the US to try to maintain peace and avoid conflict (61%)

• Showing a better example of what world leadership should look like (57%)

• Doing more to grow the economy around the world (56%)

• More stable and predictable (54%)

• More respectful of other people around the world (53%)

Majorities say the US is:

• More committed to freedom of speech (84%)

• Doing more for the poor in their country (61%)

• Doing more to address climate change and environmental issues (57%)

Conservative and Liberal voters react differently on some of these items, with CPC voters giving more credit to the US and showing more skepticism about China. However, these differences are in some cases more modest than might have been anticipated.

UPSHOT

The role of China in the world has been changing and so has that of the United States.  Canadians have been watching these events unfold and opinions are clearly evolving.  For many people, China looks like a more stable and predictable power, one that evinces more respect for others and is doing more to raise economic prospects around the world.  None of these observations would have been as common only a few years ago.

Inevitably, these impressions are a function not only of what China has been doing but also the way in which Canadians are seeing the US with Donald Trump as it’s leader.

Broad reluctance to join a military conflict that Mr. Trump might consider is just one illustration – many seem also to feel that America under Trump seems to lack respect for people in other parts of the world.

That so few believe Canada should be more like America is an illustration that for many Canadians, Trump’s America is not, for the moment anyway, a “shining city on a hill.

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 1,500 Canadians aged 18 and over from April 21 to 24, 2017. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys.   The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 1,500 is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABACUS DATA INC.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value-added insight.  Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, Ph.D.

Media