NDP by a nose

Our latest horserace “who would you vote for tomorrow” question has the NDP, at 32% followed by the Conservatives at 29 and the Liberals at 27%. Since February, the NDP have picked up 11 points while the Liberals have lost 7 and the Conservatives have shed 6.

In the three biggest seat markets, the NDP is the story to watch. In Ontario, the NDP is neck and neck with the other major parties and have substantial leads in Quebec and BC.

The NDP is currently competitive among segments of the population where they have lagged in the past, including among men, older voters, and homeowners.

77% Prefer a Change in Government

In this wave, 77% say they would prefer to see a change, although not all of these people feel strongly about the need for change. Among those who most want to see change, 44% would vote NDP and 34% would vote Liberal.

Only 14% are sure they want the Conservatives to win another term, and another 9% feel mildly this way. To win, therefore, the Conservatives need to win a bigger share of the 24% who mildly prefer change.

Who could beat the Conservatives? A split decision

Among those who want change, four in ten believe that the Liberals have “the best chance to defeat the Conservatives nationally”, while the NDP is a close second with 37%. Belief in Liberal chances is highest in Atlantic Canada (52%) and Ontario (48%), while Quebec (44%) respondents believe the NDP has a better chance to defeat the Tories. BC is split for Liberals (38%) and NDP (41%).

Only 28% know how they will vote.

Just 28% say “I know how I will vote and that won’t change” up 3 points since our last survey, another 38% have “a fairly good idea, but that could change”, up 4 points. The Conservatives have the support of 34% of those who’ve made a have a firm decision, and 23% of the “fairly good idea” group.

Together, among committed voters, this would provide the incumbents with 31% in total among these two segments, compared to 32% for the NDP and 27% for the Liberals.

NDP & Liberal pools grow, CPC pool steady but smaller

In the last month, we see continued growth (+6) in those who would consider voting NDP, giving the party the largest potential voter pool at 62%, followed by the Liberals at 55% who are also up from last month (+4) and the Conservatives at 45%.

What outcome do Canadians predict?

The NDP’s rise in support is mirrored in expectations about who will win the next election. Today 26% think the Conservatives will win, 24% say the Liberals will win and 22% say the NDP (up 15 points over the last quarter).

The Upshot?

The political competition we are seeing today is unprecedented. Five points separate the three main parties and the NDP is in the lead; last September the gap was 15 points, and the NDP was third.

While recent trends have been challenging for the Liberals, these numbers are just as sobering for Conservatives. A lot of voters are inclined to want change, and there is little evident fear of the prospect of the NDP forming a government.

To win a fourth straight election, the Conservatives will have to present their own, compelling version of what they would do next, or make change seem more risky, or both. But relying on historic hesitation about the NDP, or the ability to diminish leadership opponents, has shows little promise as a re-election strategy, and simply may not work in 2015.

Given these competitive dynamics, it is clear that all the parties will be revising their approaches, constantly, over the next 100 days. Predictions of the overall outcome, let alone seat projections, are in these circumstances little more than amusing guesswork.

Methodology

Our survey was conducted online with 2,000 Canadians aged 18 and over from July 3 to 6, 2015. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of Canadians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data Inc.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD. For more information, visit our website at http://www.abacusdata.ca/

We asked 1,500 Canadians at the end of May to tell us about where they live. Here are the highlights:

16% think their community is the “best place in the world to live”. Comparing Canada’s three biggest cities, 30% in Vancouver think they live in the best place in the world, 21% in Montreal, while 12% of GTA respondents feel this way.

21% think they live “one of the best places in Canada”, and 40% said they lived in a “better than average” place.  Just one in five think they live in an “average” place, and only 3% said “not a particularly good place.”

When asked what they like most about where they live, 87% said “quality of life” compared to 13% who said it was “economic conditions”.  When asked what they would most like to see improved, most said economic conditions (65%) – logical given the current high level of satisfaction with the quality of life.

When asked what they would most like to see improved, the majority said economic conditions (65%) – presumably because of their current high level of satisfaction with the quality of life where they live.

We tested five possible local priorities and asked respondents to pick the most important one.  40% put a focus on the economy, 23% said improving roads and transit, 19% easing hardship, 9% safety/crime reduction and 9% improving the environment.

There were important subgroup differences in priority setting.  In Atlantic Canada, there was a much greater importance attached to improving economic conditions.  Crime and safety issues were more important in western Canada.  Transit and roads were more crucial in urban areas. Easing hardship was a much higher priority among households with the lowest incomes. The environment is given a little more prominence in urban areas and in Quebec.  Conservative voters put more emphasis on the economy and crime and less on easing hardship.  Green party voters put less emphasis on roads and transit and more on the environment.

The Upshot?

Famously, US House of Representatives Speaker Tip O’Neill is quoted as saying “all politics is local”.  Here in Canada, quality of life in local communities is a crucial undercurrent in national politics – it is where people experience a healthy or weak economy, and where they consume public services like health and education.

Three out of four people feel they live in a pretty good place and almost half think they live in one of the best places in the country or in the world.  People see quality of life as the best thing about their community, and a healthy economy as a pre-requisite of a satisfying local quality of life.

Political parties and candidates will experience different voter priorities in different regions this fall.  The economy will be a fixation for many people, but not equally across the country.  In congested urban areas, improving infrastructure matters a lot.  Easing hardship finds a bigger market than fighting crime, in every place but the Prairies. The environment finds roughly 1 in 10 people who put it at the top of the priority list.

Abacus Chairman Bruce Anderson quote:

“The most successful politicians know well that Tip O’Neill had it right – that while parties must have key national themes, local candidates must be armed with solutions to local priorities: everything from job creation, to transit, poverty, crime and the environment.

People experience “the economy” where they live, and less as a function of macro economic news.  Equally, fiscal balances, tax levels, social spending and economic stimuli are policy ideas evaluated through the lens of what impact they might have, if any, on local conditions.

Voters are drawn to politicians who are dialed in on what makes life great or not so great, in their community. In this unusually competitive election, national leaders may find themselves wanting to spend more time than usual talking up local solutions and making sure their national agendas sound relevant locally. And there’s a remember in these numbers that for most people, a strong economy is more “means” than “end” – and that the outcome people care most about is a more broadly defined good quality of life.”

Methodology

Our survey was conducted online with 1,500 Canadians aged 18 and over from May 28 to May 31, 2015. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of Canadians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Sample Composition

Abacus Data Inc.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD. For more information, visit our website at http://www.abacusdata.ca/

According to a new VOCM-Abacus Data random telephone survey of 722 eligible voters in Newfoundland and Labrador conducted from June 17 to 21, 2015, the federal Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau continues to hold a big lead in Newfoundland and Labrador.

The Liberals have the support of 53% of committed voters (down 5 since March) compared with 28% for the NDP (up 12 since March) and 15% for the Conservative Party (down 8 since March).

Among all eligible voters, 14% are undecided, down 2 since March.

Regionally, the Liberals lead by a wide margin in all parts of the province except for around St. John’s and the Avalon Peninsula where the Liberals and NDP are statistically tied (LPC 42% vs. NDP 37%).

In 2011, the total vote split in the three ridings in St. John’s/Avalon Peninsula was: NDP 46%, CPC 28%, LPC 25%.  Based on the margin of error, the vote range for each party in the region is:

Liberal: Low 37%, Mid 42%, High 49%
NDP: Low 30%, Mid 37%, High 43%
CPC: Low 12%, Mid 17%, High 22%

There’s also an 80% chance that the Liberals are leading the NDP in the Avalon/St. John’s region.

This analysis indicates that the Liberal vote is likely up significantly since 2011 in the region, the Tory and NDP vote is likely down.

Leadership Impressions

Despite trailing the Liberals by 25-points province wide, NDP Tom Mulcair has the most positive impression among eligible voters.

Overall, 43% have a positive impression of Mr. Mulcair (up 15 points since March) compared with 14% who have a negative impression of him (+29 score).  Mr. Trudeau’s personal numbers have held fairly steady since March with 43% viewing him favourably and 21% have an unfavourably impression of the Liberal leader (+22 net score).

Most eligible voters in NL continue to have a negative impression of Prime Minister Harper (69%) and only 14% view him positively (-55 net score).

Who will win the next election?

When asked who will win the next federal election, 46% of eligible voters picked the Liberal Party while 21% picked the Conservative Party.   Nearly tied with the Conservative Party, 18% selected the NDP to win, while 15% were unsure.

In March, only 2% of eligible voters believed the NDP would win the next federal election.  Today, 18% believe the NDP is likely to win.  Expectations of a Liberal win are down 5 points while expectations of a Conservative win are down 9 points.

Methodology

The random live-interview telephone survey commissioned by VOCM was conducted with 722 eligible voters living in Newfoundland and Labrador.  The survey was completed from June 17 to 21, 2015. The margin of error for a probability-based random sample of 500 respondents using a probability sample is +/- 3.7%, 19 times out of 20.

The data was statistically weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched population of Newfoundland and Labrador.  The tables within this report detail the weighted and unweighted counts for the sample.

Note the small sample sizes when reviewing results in subgroups.

For more information about the poll’s methodology or the results, please contact David Coletto, CEO at david@abacusdata.ca or at 613-232-2806.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA:

Abacus Data is an innovative, fast growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research based advice to our clients.  We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value

Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD. For more information, visit our website at http://www.abacusdata.ca/

19 million plan to watch leaders debate

Just over 19 million Canadian adults (69%) intend to watch at least one leaders’ debate this fall, including almost 6 million (21%) who say they will watch as many as possible, according to results in our survey. The audience will be spread across the country and will include slightly more men and older people than women and younger people. Equal proportions of the voters who will consider each of the three largest parties say they will watch.

A total of 49% of those we surveyed this month said they were certain to vote but were not fully committed to any party yet. Among this group 69% say they will watch at least one debate, and 15% will watch as many as they can. These debates may well turn to be more decisive in the election outcome than usual.

When informed that Stephen Harper will attend several debates but not those hosted by CBC, CTV, and Global, the majority (62%) believes the networks should host debates anyway. This includes 40% of those who intend to vote Conservative, and 51% of those who are considering supporting the CPC. Women are particularly of the view (67%) that the debates should be held despite the PM’s absence.

3 out of 4 Say PM Should Attend Network debates

A large majority (74%) believes the PM “should change his position and attend the debates hosted by the networks as they reach the largest audience”. Only one in four (26%) are persuaded by the argument that “as long as he is participating in some debates he is entitled to decide which debates he wants to be part of”.

This view is held by 63% of CPC voters and 65% of those who say they will consider voting CPC. Among those certain to vote but not yet committed to a party, 74% say the PM should reconsider.

Political Ad Testing

We measured reactions to four different political advertisements (two CPC ads – here and here), one LPC and one NDP ad). In each case, we asked if the topic of the ad is important, if the audience agreed with the points being made, if the ad built support for the sponsor, and if the ad is fair or unfair.

Topic Importance

Of the four ads, three of them scored very well for dealing with important topics (NDP Bring Change to Ottawa 81%, CPC Proven Leadership 68%, LPC Fairness Plan 65%). The CPC Interview Ad that focused on Justin Trudeau and finished with a comment about his hair was considered to be addressing an important topic by considerably fewer people, 51%.

Agree with Points Made

Large majorities agreed with the points made in the NDP ad (85%), the LPC ad (75%) the CPC Leadership ad (70%). Only 47% found themselves agreeing with the CPC Interview/Hair ad.

Impact on Support

The NDP (+30 net – more inclined minus less inclined) and the Liberal Party ad (+18) were the most likely to result in increased support.

The CPC Proven Leadership ad produced 50% more inclined and 50% less inclined for a net of 0.

The CPC Interview/Trudeau Hair ad had a negative 29 net score, with 36% saying it made them more inclined to support the Conservatives and 65% saying it had the opposite reaction.

Tone/Fairness

Three of the four ads were considered fair by large majorities (80% plus) of those surveyed. Less than half (41%) considered the CPC Interview Trudeau Hair ad fair, while 59% felt it “crossed the line and was unfair”.

The Upshot?

According to Abacus Chairman Bruce Anderson:

“Advertising and leader debates will likely be vitally important in this election campaign. A very large number of people say they will watch the leaders debate and several million voters say they will watch as many of the debates as they can.

Most prefer to see the network consortium proceed with debates even in the absence of the PM, and most voters don’t agree with the PM’s decision to skip the major network debates.

If the race continues to be as close as it is now, Mr. Harper and his advisors may regret the decision they’ve taken, and/or reconsider their position. It’s hard to see the upside in being absent, and easy to see the risk of appearing arrogant by not showing up.

When it comes to advertising, the NDP and Liberal messages as well as the Conservative leadership ad have landed well, and show that many people are receptive to the core messages that the three parties are working with.

However, the results offer a reminder to the Conservatives that while negative ads may have worked in the past, they carry risk at this point in the life of this government. Even if attack ads aimed at Mr. Trudeau have some impact on the views of the Liberal leader, they may not result in more support for the Conservatives – instead they could increase the desire for change.”

In case you missed it, yesterday we released results about federal vote intentions, potential party supporters, and who Canadians think will win the next election.

Methodology

Our survey was conducted online with 1,500 Canadians aged 18 and over from May 28 to May 31, 2015. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of Canadians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data Inc.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD. For more information, visit our website at http://www.abacusdata.ca/

Conservatives shed 5 points, NDP up 4

Our latest horserace “who would you vote for tomorrow” question shows an extremely tight race, with the Conservatives at 31% and the NDP and the Liberals at 28%.  In the provinces with the most seats and the largest sample sizes, the Liberals have a slight lead over the Conservatives in Ontario and the NDP has a sizeable lead over the Liberals in Quebec.  We see a close 3-way race in BC.

A closer look at some of the demographic patterns suggests that some movement from the Conservatives towards the NDP is happening among voters 60 and older, traditionally a critical bastion of Conservative support.  NDP support has also grown in the last month among those with higher levels of education, homeowners, and union members.

More Canadians in the Mood for Change

Our latest results show a 7-point jump in the number of people who think it would be good to have a change in government in Ottawa, and a corresponding drop in the number of people who thing “it’s definitely best to keep the Conservatives in office”.   In this wave, 76% say they would prefer to see a change, although not all of these people feel strongly about the need for change.

Huge Proportion of Votes up for Grabs

Only 25% of those polled say, “I know how I will vote and that won’t change”.  Among this group, 37% intend to vote Conservative.  One way to interpret this is that the resolute CPC vote is 9% today, 3 points higher than that of the NDP or Liberals, but not exactly large.

Another 35% say they have “a fairly good idea, but that could change”.  Among this group, all three major parties have an equal share of voting intentions.

Just about a quarter (23%) say “I have only a slight leaning at this time” and 17% say they “don’t really know which party they will vote for at this time.

Among those who voted Conservative in 2011, many are not fully committed to supporting the party again.  Just one in three of those who voted Conservative say they know how they will vote and that won’t change (92% are voting Conservative).  The other two thirds of their 2011 coalition say they are not necessarily with the Conservatives at this point.

NDP potential expands, no party enjoys a large, loyal base

In the last month, we see a 5-point increase in the percentage of people who say they would consider voting NDP, giving the party now the largest potential voter pool at 56%, followed by the Liberals at 51% and the Conservatives at 45%.  Just about a third would consider voting Green.

The percentage of those who would consider voting NDP is up the most in Quebec (+10) but is also up in Atlantic Canada (+12) with slight increases in BC (+4), Alberta (+4), and Ontario (+2).

Cross-tabulating these results, reveals that the base pool (would only consider this party) for the Conservatives is 15%, for the NDP is 16% and for the Liberals is 10%.

Who cares about this election?

One in four Canadians “care deeply about the outcome of this election” and LPC and NDP voters are a little more likely to feel this way than Conservative voters.   This measure of motivation is something we will watch going forward as it often has a bearing on turnout.  Another 53% say they are interested in the election, which includes more Conservatives than Liberals or New Democrats.

How do Canadians see this turning out?

Prognostication in these circumstances in getting a lot tougher, and when asked how they think the election will turn out, Canadians are reflecting this uncertainty. Today 26% think the Liberals will win, 24% say the Conservatives (down 12 points in a month) and 15% say the NDP (up 6 points in the month and 8 points over the last quarter).  Growth in the belief that the NDP could win is up in many parts of the country, not only in Quebec.

The Upshot?

These results are the clearest evidence to date of a phenomenon that has been seen in several recent provincial elections –polls well in advance of an election can suggest stability in public opinion when in fact there is a remarkable softness to voting intentions.

According to Abacus Chairman Bruce Anderson:

“The true core vote for any of the three main parties, is actually less than 20% today, partly a function of long term disengagement of many people from the political process.  We can count on more shifting around of support than ever before, and less predictability.

Today’s numbers indicate that the desire for change in Ottawa is rising. There is a larger potential for the NDP brand to consolidate the “change vote” than we have seen in the past.  However, the Liberal brand is highly competitive, especially in the critical battleground of Ontario, and is seen as a more likely victor in October.

The results are sobering news for Conservative election planners.  While our data had shown an uptick in support based on the recent budget, this effect has dissipated.  With 20 weeks to Election Day the incumbents are struggling to build enthusiasm around their economic record or plans, and as our next release will reveal, the terror/security issue is losing momentum for the CPC as well.

All three parties have a chance to win the next election. But none can expect to win it without out-campaigning the others. And that means drawing voters beyond core loyalists.“

Methodology

Our survey was conducted online with 1,500 Canadians aged 18 and over from May 28 to May 31, 2015. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of Canadians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data Inc.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD. For more information, visit our website at http://www.abacusdata.ca/