Conservatives lead by 3 over Liberals

From May 9 to 12, 2023, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 2,500 adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.

In this analysis, I share the latest federal vote intention results.

If an election was held at the time of the survey, the Conservatives would get 33% of the vote (unchanged from our last survey) the Liberals would get 30% (down 1) and the NDP is in third at 18% (down 1). The BQ is at 7% nationally, the People’s Party at 5% and the Greens at 5%.

This competitive environment has been consistent in our tracking since mid-March.

Regionally, the Conservatives are ahead in BC, well ahead in the Prairies, and competitive with the Liberals in Ontario. The Liberals are statistically tied with the Conservatives in Ontario, with the BQ in Quebec, and ahead of the Conservatives in Atlantic Canada.

The NDP finds more support west of Ontario.

The Liberals are ahead among those under 30, trail the Conservatives by 12 among those aged 30 to 44, and by 8 among those aged 45 to 59. The Conservatives and Liberals are tied among those 60+.

We find a large gender gap in vote intentions. The Conservatives lead by 10 among men while the Liberals are ahead by 45 among women. NDP support is 10 points higher (24%) among women than it is among men (14%).

UPSHOT

According to David Coletto: “Not much has changed in our vote tracking over the past few months. The Conservatives hold a slight advantage nationally and the only noticeable difference between today and the 2021 election results seems to be in BC where the Conservatives are up and the Liberals seem to be down. Otherwise, vote choice seems to be frozen at the moment.”

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 2,500 Canadian adults from May 9 to 12, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.0%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

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We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

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